tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29772981903919571102024-03-08T09:24:42.638-08:00TheValueBettor 2018-19 - Big Race BlogThe Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.comBlogger95125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-8867937935506174992019-04-20T02:12:00.005-07:002019-04-20T02:13:17.855-07:00End of season report<b>Overview</b><br />
<br />
As always, I’ll begin the season review with the headline figures:<br />
<br />
For the 2018-19 season (Nov 1st – Apr 6th) a total of 190 tips were issued across 162 races, with 155.25pts staked.<br />
<br />
If you had managed to secure the price advised in the tips email, then you would have achieved a profit of 41.16pts (26.5% ROI).<br />
<br />
The ROI is a little down on the 6 year average for the service - and is slightly boosted by BOG (the profit is 37.74pts without it).<br />
However, there were many occasions when the advised price could be beaten at the time of issue - and the tips were all issued at a time when it should have been relatively easy to get on.<br />
<br />
In short, I think the figure is a fair representation of what should have been achievable - and this is backed up by the fact that the figure for the season at BSP, is similar to that at advised prices.<br />
<br />
If you had taken BSP, to advised stakes, on all of the tips, then before commission, you would have made a profit of 31.24pts (20.1% ROI).<br />
<br />
Again, that number is a little lower than I would have hoped - and those who have been paying close attention will have a good idea of the main reason !<br />
The spring festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree, had a negative impact on the seasons profits - the former in particular.<br />
So much so, that I think they warrant their own section in the report - which I will come to later..!<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Tips Analysis</b><br />
<br />
As I’ve said previously, I like to monitor how the tips perform in terms of finishing positions, as it helps give me a feel for whether they were particularly ‘lucky’ - or ‘unlucky’.<br />
During the season, the following placings were achieved:<br />
<br />
1st – 28<br />
2nd – 16<br />
3rd – 23<br />
4th – 11<br />
<br />
The suggestion from this is that the tips were lucky - but that obviously can’t be right, because TVB is never (OK - rarely) lucky !<br />
<br />
Almost exactly 25% of the selections finished first or second, which is bang on my target.<br />
Whilst just over 41% of selections finished in the first 4.<br />
I’m not too worried about this number (because I tip very few horses EW) - but it is still close enough, to my target of 50%.<br />
<br />
The other measure of ‘luck’ that I use, is how many of the tips that traded at 2.1 or less, subsequently went on to win the race.<br />
<br />
This season, there were 46 horses traded at 2.1 or less (all of them actually traded at 2 or less).<br />
<br />
28 of these won – 5 more than would have been expected with ‘average’ luck.<br />
<br />
The suggestion again, is that the tips were ‘lucky’ during the season - or alternatively, that the in-running odds aren’t as accurate an indicator as they used to be…<br />
<br />
I suspect it is a bit of both.<br />
Certainly, I don’t think we experienced much bad luck - aside from some unfortunate falls/brought downs, in the final few weeks of the season.<br />
<br />
<br />
In terms of the races that I tipped in: then 29 of the 190 tips were in races run in Ireland - and they yielded a slight loss (though there were 4 odds-on losers, as against 3 winners - so they were probably just a bit ‘unlucky’).<br />
<br />
Of the remaining 161 tips: 85 were in class 1 races (over half) – with 47 in class 2; 24 in class 3 and 5 in class 4.<br />
<br />
The tips in class 1 & 2 races, yielded a big profit (55pts) - whilst there were only 2 winning tips in class 3 races - which as a result, recorded a loss of nearly 14pts…<br />
<br />
As with last season, very few tips, crashed in price.<br />
That is simply a result of tipping in better class races - and only when the market has stabilised.<br />
<br />
Just 2 tips across the entire season, halved in price (advised v BSP) - and neither of them won.<br />
In fact, only 2 winning tips shortened in price by more than 40% (Beware the Bear and San Pedro de Senam); whilst 12 of the 28 winning tips (nearly half) had a BSP longer that the advised price.<br />
<br />
The majority of the winning tips had a BSP within 20% of the advised price - which again is testament to tipping into relatively strong, stable markets.<br />
This strongly suggests that the TVB edge is not based on price ‘ricks’…<br />
<br />
<br />
One other point worth noting is that only 3 of the 28 winning tips had an advised price of greater than 10/1.<br />
Considering 83 of the tips had an advised price of greater than 10/1, this is a bit concerning !<br />
Backing tips with an advised price of greater that 10/1, resulted in a loss of 23.75pts - and it would have been worse, if it weren’t for the variable staking (most of the tips were just 0.5pt win).<br />
<br />
I think the reason is that by the time I tip, most of the big priced horses which have a chance, have already been backed.<br />
If they are still big prices at 9:00 on race day, it is generally for good reason !<br />
<br />
Obviously this is a little disappointing, as historically, the TVB service has done well with big priced horses.<br />
This season, virtually all of the profits were from horses in the price range 5/1-10/1.<br />
<br />
Those shorter than 5/1 came out about level (I think the issue here, is that ‘luck’ starts to play a bigger part, percentage-wise).<br />
<br />
For those who are interested, I’ll add a spreadsheet to the main website, detailing of all the season tips, in the next few days…<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The evolution of the TVB subscriber profile</b><br />
<br />
When TVB started in 2012, it was clearly a service for NH ‘enthusiasts’.<br />
<br />
It was built around a comprehensive (and often entertaining !) write-up - and whilst there were ‘official tips’ - the main value of the service was in the write-up…<br />
<br />
Certainly, back then, many of the guys on the service managed to secure bigger profits from selectively following the Mentions - and interpreting the write-ups - than they did from following the tips.<br />
<br />
In part, that was because I didn’t worry too much about which races I tipped in - or when I issued the tips (so the profits from the official tips, weren’t always easy to achieve).<br />
<br />
Obviously the tip results provide the headline for the service.<br />
They are the only true measurable - and can also be compared with other services.<br />
<br />
The tips results have always been good - and over time, that has caught the attention of a second group of followers - the ‘investors’.<br />
<br />
In the early days, I wasn’t keen on letting Investors on to the service - because so much of the service value was in the write-up (which requires time and an interest in the racing, in order to unlock).<br />
However, I’ve relented a little with this, over the past couple of years - as the change of service scope (to focus on big races), has meant that results from the official tips are now much more scaleable, than they were in the past.<br />
<br />
This season saw me increase my subscriber base by over 50% - with a number of the new guys ‘investors’, rather than ‘enthusiasts’.<br />
<br />
This probably caused one or two issues with price crashes during the first few weeks of the season, but I took some actions just after Christmas and my feeling is that the same issues didn’t occur during the second half of the season (you will have the opportunity to confirm/deny this, in the survey !)<br />
<br />
As the write-ups/Mentions etc. haven’t changed much since the early days, the service is now in a position where it supports 2 groups of subscribers: ‘enthusiasts’ and ‘investors’ - and they sit side by side, feeding off the same analysis.<br />
<br />
The occasional compromise is necessary: for example, with regard to tip timings (I need sufficient time to produce the write-up) - but generally, I don’t believe that the blend has resulted in many issues.<br />
<br />
Obviously, as an enthusiast myself, I’m hoping that I will be able to convert some of the investors (not least because I think the enthusiasts make more from the service !) - but whereas I was once committed to an enthusiasts only service, that’s not now the case…<br />
<br />
I’m sure that each of you know which camp you primarily sit in (it’s not really an ‘either/or’ thing) - but I thought it worth me explaining how I view things, as it might help you better understand certain actions that I take.<br />
<br />
Generally speaking, the more subscribers I have on the service, the easier it is for me to justify putting in the required time and effort - and the less I need to charge.<br />
<br />
This should obviously benefit everyone - provided that non of the key aspects of the service, are negatively affected…<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The spring festivals - in particular, Cheltenham</b><br />
<br />
A couple of seasons ago, I made the decision to stop tipping in minor midweek races because I didn’t think it could be done profitably - and I now think the same is true for the Cheltenham festival…<br />
<br />
The problem with Cheltenham, is that it has become too dominant.<br />
<br />
Most of the best horses are targeted specifically at the meeting (many of them, sacrificing the rest of their season) - and even the biggest trainers now target horses at the handicaps.<br />
<br />
All of the races are also picked over and analysed, to such an extent, that the markets are incredibly accurate.<br />
With the bookmakers over-rounds, that makes it nearly impossible to find a profitable angle…<br />
<br />
Many of the races have become too simple to assess - and the markets accurately reflect the likely results.<br />
<br />
This season, just 11 of the 28 races were won by horses at double figure prices.<br />
When you consider that most of the races have 20+ runners, that tells a tale.<br />
<br />
To an extent, it’s understandable with the conditions races (the best horses can be expected to win, most often) - but it’s also becoming the case with the handicaps.<br />
<br />
Of the 10 handicaps runs at the meeting, 6 were won by horses at 6/1 or less.<br />
When 20+ runners go to post, that’s always going to make things hard for a ‘value bettor’ !<br />
<br />
Furthermore, one of the winners was a totally unconsidered 66/1 chance - meaning that effectively only 3 of 10 handicaps, could have been solved in the manner that I would use to solve similar races during in the season (ie. ‘value’ selections)<br />
<br />
In the circumstances, it is maybe not surprising that the TVB tips recorded a near 8pt loss on 17pts staked at the meeting.<br />
<br />
In fact, if you took the Cheltenham festival out of the seasons results, it would leave a profit of 48.91pts on 136.25pt staked (ROI 36%): BSP profit of 39.69 pts (ROI 29%) - which is more in line with results from previous seasons (when Cheltenham didn’t have such a negative impact).<br />
<br />
Ofcourse, if I felt this season was just a one off, then I wouldn’t be inclined to take any action - however, I feel it is a trend that has been developing for at least 5 seasons, so I feel that action should to be taken…<br />
<br />
With regard to Aintree, then whilst there are similarities - and I think things moving in the same direction (there were some very well backed winners) - then unlike the markets for the Cheltenham races, most of the Aintree markets only exist for a day or 2 (so aren’t as accurate) and there also isn’t quite the same prestige for the races (so they aren’t targeted to quite the same degree)...<br />
<br />
That said, the TVB tips also recorded a loss at Aintree (3pts on 10pts staked) - and if you take both festivals out of the seasons figures it leaves a profit of 52.16pt on 126pts staked (ROI 41.39%): BSP profit of 44.94pts (ROI 35.6%).<br />
<br />
Obviously, Cheltenham holds significant appeal for the enthusiasts - but as an investment vehicle, I really don’t think it works any more.<br />
Consequently, I will be looking to handle it differently, next season…<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Conclusions and next season</b><br />
<br />
Last season, when I reached this point, I didn’t have a lot to say !<br />
And whilst I’ve got a couple of ideas which will hopefully improve things a little for next season - I think that service remains, very close to where I want it to be.<br />
<br />
In a way, that’s not too surprising, after 7 successful seasons.<br />
I’ve tweaked plenty of things along the way - but the base product is now well established.<br />
<br />
In terms of the changes that I think should be made:<br />
<br />
The first of them, is covered in the previous section - I don’t think that I should offer official tips for the Cheltenham festival.<br />
<br />
That’s not to say that I shouldn’t offer views on the races - in fact, I would intend to cover the races more extensively than I currently do !<br />
However, my thoughts will be offered in the form of ‘opinions’ designed for the enthusiasts - as opposed to tips, for the investors.<br />
<br />
Specifically, I plan to cover more of the Cheltenham races in an ante-post section in the forum.<br />
Realistically, it won’t be possible for everyone to back selections that I put up ante-post (the markets aren’t sufficiently strong).<br />
But some people will be able to (those with conventional bookmaker accounts) - and hopefully people will generally find them of interest.<br />
<br />
I would also intend to preview the races during Cheltenham week - but more as I currently preview races on the midweek blog.<br />
There will be ‘selections’ - but no official tips.<br />
<br />
The only other change I plan to make for next season, is that I intend to tip less long priced horses.<br />
To an extent, this is a note to myself - but I do think it is getting too hard to make outsiders pay (certainly, in the races/at the times that I issue the tips).<br />
<br />
Aside from that, the plan would be for things will stay broadly the same.<br />
<br />
I’m happy with most of the tips I issued during the season; I’m also happy with the content of the write-ups - and the timings of both its issue and that of the tips.<br />
I might make a few changes to the midweek blog - but I think it serves its purpose - in a low key way !<br />
And whilst I would like to see more activity in the forum - that’s largely out of my control.<br />
<br />
In short, I’m content that most aspects of the service are roughly where I want them to be…<br />
<br />
<br />
I think that just about covers everything - apart from the obligatory thanks, to those who help make the service what it is.<br />
<br />
Chief amongst the supporting cast - as I’m sure you are all aware - is Chris.<br />
Not only does he drive the forum, via his ‘System bets’ and ‘Sprinters’ - he also provides me with extensive trainer data, which helps enormously with the selection process for the tips.<br />
It’s fair to say, that TVB wouldn’t be the same service without Chris’ input - and his efforts are greatly appreciated (and I know that’s not just by me).<br />
<br />
Others worthy of special mention, are Francis and Neil - both of whom input to Chris’ system bet thread.<br />
Also, Dave, who again ran the December Naps competition, and provides behind the scenes support: Craig, who has established a successful Syndicate betting thread - which I’m sure will continue to grow, next season; and Clinton, who set up a Bookmakers thread, which I know a number of you have found very valuable.<br />
<br />
Thanks to each of you, for giving something back to TVB<br />
<br />
Anyway, I think that’s just about covers everything.<br />
The satisfaction survey will be with you soon - but aside from that, you won’t hear from me again until the beginning of October, when I’ll be back in touch with the plans for the 2019-20 season !<br />
<br />
Best wishes to everyone - I hope you all have a great summer !<br />
<br />
TVB.The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-5605445288165164242019-04-07T13:02:00.003-07:002019-04-07T13:02:19.910-07:00Review of the day<span style="font-family: Calibri;">There was no joy with the final days tips - which was a bit
disappointing, as I quite fancied a couple of them ! <br /><br />I don’t want to
make excuses, but I was again taken aback by the state of the ground at
Aintree.<br />They were running close to course records today - which considering
it was borderline heavy, less than 48 hours ago, almost beggars
belief.<br /><br />Certainly I don’t think the quick ground helped at least a couple
of the tips - though I guess there’s the chance that they may not have been good
enough, regardless ! <br /><br />Burbank was the first one to run - and I suspect he
would have fared better on slower ground.<br />Certainly that was the suggestion
from the way he stayed on powerfully into fourth place.<br /><br />I said this
morning that I thought the betting would foretell his fate - so my expectations
were suitably low when I saw him returned with a BSP of over 50 !<br /><br />In the
circumstances, he ran better than I expected - though in truth, he never looked
like winning…<br /><br />Kateson was probably my strongest tip on the day - but he
definitely would have preferred softer ground.<br /><br />He was never travelling as
well as I would have liked - and whilst he was still in with a chance jumping
the second last, he was then quickly beaten.<br /><br />I’m sure he is better than
he looked today (the fact Brewinupastorm finished second, supports that
statement) - but it’s likely to be next winter before he can show
it.<br /><br />Clondaw Castle was the next tip to run - and I don’t think the ground
was the issue for him.<br /><br />A bit like Topofthegame yesterday, it just looked
to me as if his Cheltenham exertions had taken the edge off him.<br /><br />As I
said on the opening day, that’s always a possibility at Aintree - though
unfortunately, you don't know whether it’s the case, until it’s too
late.<br /><br />Again, I’m sure he’ll bounce back in the fullness of time and show
himself better than he appeared today.<br /><br />In terms of how they ran, then On
Tour probably did the best of the days tips.<br /><br />He travelled strongly
through the race - and was brought to deliver his challenge at the second
last.<br /><br />However, it was soon apparent that he had nothing left in reserve -
and he was quickly beaten.<br /><br />The race was fought out by 2 of the younger,
progressive horses - which I knew was always a possibility - but so did the
market... <br /><br />It was the Grand National next - and both of the tips
performed with credit.<br /><br />Pleasant Company was still within a length of the
lead, when he made a bad mistake and unshipped Paul Townend at the fourth last;
and whilst Dounikos still appeared to be in with a chance at that point, he then
weakened alarmingly, and was pulled up before the second last.<br /><br />In truth,
even if they had got round, I doubt they would have troubled Tiger Roll, who put
in another mighty performance.<br />He really is a bit of an equine freak
!<br /><br />Kilbricken Strom was the only Mention on the day - and he almost
certainly under-performed because of the quick ground.<br /><br />I suspect that was
also the case for Apples Jade.<br />Superficially, she may have appeared to run
well in finishing a close third, to If the Cap Fits - but I suspect she ran
about a stone below her best…<br /><br /><br />So that’s it for the 2018-19 TVB season
! <br /><br />As I said this morning, I’ll aim to get out an end of season report,
at some point in the next fortnight - along with a feedback survey.<br /><br />As
always, it’s been an enjoyable few months for me - even if there has been the
occasional stressful day along the way !<br /><br />Thanks to you all for your
support throughout the season: I hope you’ve also found it enjoyable - and
profitable !<br /><br />I also hope that the majority of you will want to return in
the autumn, when I kick off the 2019-20 season !<br /><br />Best wishes to you all
for the summer ahead !<br /><br />TVB.</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-6383849318870205212019-04-07T13:01:00.002-07:002019-04-07T13:01:32.772-07:00Daily write-up - Apr 6th (Aintree Day 3)<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Day 3 of the Aintree Grand National meeting - Grand National
day !<br /><br />It’s also the final day of the 2018-19 TVB season.<br /><br />In a way,
I can’t believe how fast the season has passed: yet at the same time, it seems
an absolute age, since Out Sam provided the first winning tip of the
season.<br /><br />It’s the seventh season I’ve completed - and I will look back on
it as a good one.<br /><br />It’s not had the same highs as many of the previous
seasons - but it’s not had many lows, either.<br />I’ve kept tight control of the
P&L throughout - something I hope you guys appreciate ! <br /><br />Anyway, I’ll
summarise all my thoughts - along with the figures - in an end of season
report,which I’ll look to produce in the next couple of weeks.<br />I also plan to
create another survey - so I can get feedback from all of you on how you think
things have gone.<br />The previous surveys have helped shape the service, so
hopefully you can each find a few minutes to complete it…<br /><br />Anyway, that’s
in the future - first we’ve got today to enjoy ! <br /><br />Unbelievably, after
Thursdays deluge, they have apparently selectively watered parts of the Grand
Notational course !<br />How it will ride, is anyones guess...<br /><br />As has been
the case for the past 2 days, I’ve not gone mad with the tips.<br />As I keep on
saying, with the racing so competitive - and the markets so accurate - I’m
disinclined to force things.<br /><br />Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 6 on the day
- across 5 races.<br /><br />For the final time this season, here is the rationale
behind them - along with my thoughts on the other
races…<br /><br /><br /><b>Aintree</b><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>1:45 </b><br /><br />I had
originally planned to swerve this race.<br />The 3 big field handicaps that took
place on the first 2 days of the meeting, were all won by horses which were
backed off the boards, close to the off.<br />Non of them had form that warranted
such punts - unless you were in the know !<br />This is a similar race - and that
trend makes me feel a little uncomfortable about getting involved with it
!<br />However, I just couldn’t resist a small play on Burbank…<br />In truth, it
wouldn’t surprise me if he were very well backed - certainly, I suspect the
market will advise on our fate before the race is run ! <br />He’s a horse who
has not seen much action over the past 2 seasons.<br />He ran really well to
finish seventh in last seasons Coral Cup - and again, ran better than his
finishing position suggests, in this season Coral cup.<br />Aside from that, he’s
only been seen twice: once last spring - and then in a novice chase this
January.<br />Consequently, it’s not easy to get a handle on him - but his
Cheltenham runs show that he has plenty of ability.<br />In fact, two seasons
back, he ran fourth in the Grade 1 Ballymore novice hurdle at festival - and on
that form, he is thrown in today off a mark of just 138.<br />In fairness, his
mark doesn’t look bad, based on his Coral cup runs. He was 5lb higher when he
ran in the race last season - and 3lb higher this time round.<br />However, that’s
not the big attraction with him…<br />The big attraction is his
connections.<br />Firstly, he is trained by Nicky Henderson - who has an excellent
record at the Grand National meeting; but more importantly, he is owned by
Trevor Hemmings, who bought the horse last spring.<br />Hemmings has always been a
huge supporter of Aintree - and I have little doubt that Burbank will have been
primed to run at this meeting.<br />With that in mind, his run in the Coral cup
looks even better - as it was probably just a prep race for this !<br />The
fitting of first time blinkers certainly suggests intent - and whilst that is
not something I generally like to see when a horse is being stepped up in
distance (which is the case here), I’m prepared to make an exception in this
instance.<br />In short, we have a potentially well handicapped horse: who is
still in his prime; trained by a master trainer - and targeted at a race.<br />At
20/1, it would be rude not to at least have a small investment ! <br />In terms of
dangers, then needless to say, there are plenty !<br />It’s not hard to understand
the appeal of Cheltenham winner, Sire du Berlais, with Jonjo O’Neil Jnr taking
over in the saddle.<br />However, even if you ignore his allowance, the horse is
5lb higher than at Cheltenham - and had a very hard race there.<br />He’s easy
enough to pass, at 4/1.<br />Of the others, the Aux Ptits Soin is of some interest
- even though he probably has little in hand of his mark.<br />Coolanly may be
better handicapped; whilst Flemcara was my original main fancy for the
race.<br />He was impressive when winning at Exeter (and holds Poker Play on that
run) - and can be excused a poor effort at Cheltenham (where a few things went
wrong).<br />He could be worth a small unofficial saver…<br /><br /><b>2:25
</b><br /><br />I’m quite keen on Kateson in this - and I don’t really understand
why he’s such a big price…<br />I say that - but I kind of do…!<br />He ran
disappointingly last time - and a poor recent performance tends to have more of
an effect on prices than it should.<br />Of course we have to be able forgive a
poor run - but in this instance I don’t find that difficult to do, as Kateson
was being stepped up in trip and raced too keenly.<br />He’s back down in distance
today - and whilst I would have fancied him even more if the rain had continued
to fall, I’m reasonably confident he will get away with good to soft
ground.<br />That is how it was riding when he ran Champ close at Newbury in
December.<br />The form of that run was advertised by the winner yesterday - and
the bizarre thing is that Kateson finished a length ahead of Brewinupastorm in
that race.<br />There is no reason why that form should be reverse today - yet
Brewinupastorm is 3/1 fav for todays race.<br />That’s because he subsequently ran
a fine fourth at Cheltenham - but to my mind, the fact he had a hard race 3
weeks ago, is a negative to his chances - not a positive ! <br />If the 2 horses
were the same price this afternoon, I’d want to be with Kateson - so at more
than 3 times the odds, it’s a no brainer !<br />Of the others, then I am most
fearful of Angels Breath - though that is more on potential/reputation than on
anything he’s achieved on the course.<br />Chosen Mate is not easy to get a handle
on - and he’s the other one who would concern me…<br />All of the remaining
runners will need to step up, if they are to trouble Kateson.<br />Make no
mistake, he’s a very good bet - in fact, I suspect I should have staked him more
aggressively…<br />Let’s hope I live to regret that :)<br /><br /><b>3:00
</b><br /><br />The key to this race, is this seasons Arkle chase, at
Cheltenham.<br />The top 5 in the betting all ran in that race - with Us and Them,
coming out best of the quintet.<br />He finished second - and whilst he would
never have won, he might have finished a little closer to the winner, if he’d
not belted the very first fence.<br />That said, it was down to his stamina that
he did manage to finish second - so the quicker Aintree track is unlikely to
help his cause.<br />Clondaw Castle finished 5 lengths behind Us and Them, in
fourth place - but that doesn’t tell the story.<br />Rounding the home turn, he
had kicked clear with eventual winner, Duc des Genievres - and the race looked
to concern the pair.<br />From that point, Duc Des Genievres powered clear - but
there was little doubt regarding which was the second best horse in the race.
<br />At least of those that finished !<br />The trouble with the Arkle, was that it
was a messy race.<br />Glen Forsa was an early faller - and Kalashnikov was
brought down by the fall of Ornua.<br />With Lalor seemingly having an off day -
it is possible to question the strength of the form.<br />That said, the winner
looked very good - and Clondaw Castle gave him a good race.<br /><br />Ofcourse,
there is no way of knowing how Ornua would have fared if he had stood up - and
he could be a danger today.<br />As could Lalor - provided you are prepared to
ignore his run.<br />His form at Aintree is excellent - so if he does bounce back,
he could be hard to beat.<br />However, there are ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ with them both
- and that’s not the case with Clondaw Castle.<br />The other issue for Ornua, is
that he likes to lead - and that’s also true for Knocknanuss.<br />They did each
other no favours in the Arkle - and that could easily be the case again this
afternoon.<br />Destrier and Caid du Lin are the only runners in todays race who
didn’t compete in the Arkle.<br />I couldn’t completely discount either - but I
suspect they won’t quite good enough.<br /><br /><b>3:40 </b><br /><br />If Apples Jade
is back to anywhere near her best, she will win this - and win it
easily.<br />This is not a strong race - and Apples Jade is a top class
mare.<br />At her peak, I would strongly fancy her to beat this field off level
weights - in receipt of 7lb, she would be something of a certainty
!<br />However…<br />She ran a lamentable race last time in the Champion
hurdle.<br />She was sent off favourite that day - but was never
travelling.<br />Apparently she scoped dirty after the race - and if she simply
had a bug - and it’s now cleared up, then all should be good.<br />It’s a worry
though. <br />She lost her form last spring - and the fear is the same thing might
be happening this year.<br />Certainly it’s hard to back her at 6/4 - even though
I wouldn’t want to oppose her…<br />What I really want to do, is tip Kilbricken
Storm without Apples Jade in the race - but I’m not prepared to do that -
officially speaking, anyway ! <br />I pride myself on the fact that it should be
possible for all of my subscribers to follow every tip I issue - if they wish.
<br />And betting w/o the favourite is not a bet that you all could
place.<br />However, that’s why I produce a write-up - so I can explain situations
like this - and let each of you make up your own mind on whether you get
involved.<br />In terms of the case for him: then as I said, this is not a strong
race.<br />Sam Spinner sets the standard for the remainder - and well as he ran at
Cheltenham, I’d be more than happy to take him on.<br />Kilbricken Storm also ran
in that race - and shaped really well until the home turn.<br />Apparently he had
been held up in his work prior to the race, so I suspect he will have come on
for it.<br />If he has, then he should be right in the mix this
afternoon.<br />Again, first time blinkers is an interesting move - and whilst I
would have preferred softer ground for him, I think he will get away with
it.<br />Nothing else really appeals of the others - so if Kilbricken Castle can
run to the level I think, then I suspect he will go very close
indeed.<br /><br /><b>4:20</b><br /><br />I tipped On Tour in the corresponding race 12
months ago - and I can’t resist getting involved with him again today.<br />He was
unlucky to bump into a progressive young horse at the top of his game, last year
- and whilst there is a chance the same thing could happen again today, it’s a
risk I’m prepared to take !<br />Certainly, it looks to me as if On Tour has been
targeted at this race.<br />He’s a horse who runs best fresh, so it’s a positive
that he’s not been seen for 70 days.<br />That was when disappointing in the
Skybet chase at Doncaster - but as a result of that, his mark was dropped
3lb.<br />That means that he runs today off a mark of 130 - 7lb lower than 12
months ago.<br />In fairness, he is now 11 - so possibly in decline (and certainly
not improving !).<br />However, it’s definitely a mark he can do damage off - so
the handicapper better hope he’s not writing him off prematurely ! <br />The thing
about On Tour, is that he has an incredible record at Aintree (on the Mildmay
course).<br />His 3 visits have resulted in his 3 best career performances: in
addition to last years second placing, he has also beaten Master Dee and
finished second to Thomas Brown.<br />For whatever reason, he seems to love the
place - and if he runs to the same level this afternoon, then he is going to go
very close…<br />That said, this is potentially a very strong contest.<br />3
progressive novices head the betting in the shape of Kildisart, Debece and
Mister Malarky.<br />All have already shown very strong form - and have the
potential to improve further. They won’t be easy to beat.<br />That said,
Kildisart and Mister Malarky have both had busy seasons - and ran in tough races
at Cheltenham, so may not be at their peak.<br />Consequently, Debece is possibly
the one to beat - and he also looks to have been aimed at this race.<br />Maybe
his younger legs will be too much for On Tour - or maybe his inexperience will
catch him out ! <br />Only time will tell !<br /><br /><b>5:15</b><br /><br />I don’t plan
to write much about the Grand National - because I’m sure you can all read
plenty about it, if you so wish !<br />Suffice to say, Tiger Roll will take a lot
of beating - and whilst 9/2 is too short for any horse in the Grand National,
it’s an understandable price.<br />Rathvinden is a worthy second favourite - but
again, at price of 8/1 leaves no margin for error - particularly as he’ll have
to beat Tiger Roll !<br />If either of those 2 win, I think we have to just shrug
out shoulders.<br />In truth, I was half tempted to leave the race alone from a
tipping perspective.<br />I’m sure you’ve all got your own ideas on who will win
the race - so you don’t really need me to offering an opinion.<br />That said, I
do think there are a couple in the race who offer genuine value - and I’ve
therefore decide to get involved despite it being the Grand National - not
because of it ! <br />The first is Pleasant Company.<br />He finished second in the
race last year - and in another couple of strides, would have won.<br />He meets
Tiger Roll on 2lb better terms this time - so on the book, he should beat
him.<br />He’s only run twice since last year - and shown nothing - but that is of
no concern !<br />Today is clearly the day for him - and the way Willie Mullins
horses have run this week, he simply has to be backed at 20/1.<br />The other one
is Dounikos…<br />He is in danger of becoming the most tipped TVB horse ever - but
I’m sticking with him !<br />The thing is, I suspect he’s a top class horse
(graded level).<br />Certainly, his run at last years Dublin festival, when an
unlucky 4th to Monalee, Al Boom Photo and Invitation Only suggests he could be
top class.<br />Al Boom Photo obviously went on to win this years Gold Cup, whilst
Monalee is now rated 163 - and the ill fated Invitation Only, was rated
161.<br />off 154 today, Dounikos could easily have 10lb in hand of his
mark.<br />He showed last time,when wining the Irish Natiional trial at
Punchestown that extreme trips are no issue - and he also showed that he was
back in form.<br />Gordon Elliott runs 13 in todays race - so it strikes me as
significant that stable jockey Jack Kennedy rides this one.<br />A 33/1 shot - I
don’t think so !<br />As for the rest of the runners in the race - well, I’ll let
other people make the case for them :)<br /><br /><b>6:20 </b><br /><br />I quite like
the look of Scheu Time in this - but unfortunately, so does everyone else
!<br />As with Call it Magic yesterday, the case for him is a little bit too
obvious…<br />He would have won the corresponding race last year, if not falling
at the last - and off the same mark today, with Jonjo Jnr in the saddle, he is
going to take a bit of beating.<br />The trouble is, he’s shown very little in the
interim - and a price of 4/1 in a 22 runner race, leaves no margin for error (in
fact, it is too short !).<br />That said, I’m not sure what I would oppose him
with.<br />Flashing Glance is probably the most interesting one: though I wouldn’t
be surprised to see one of Venetias going very close (she runs Pink Legend and
Subcontinent).<br />In truth, this is a race where I suspect the market will tell
the tale - and consequently I don’t want to get involved.<br />If you’ve got any
energy left after the Grand National, I suggest you watch the market and back
the horse which halves in price in the final 5 mins before the off
!<br /><br /><br />Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!<br /><br />TVB.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Tips</b><br /><br />Aint 1:45 Burbank 0.5pt win
20/1<br />Aint 2:25 Kateson 1pt win 10/1<br />Aint 3:00 Clondaw Castle 1pt win
5/1<br />Aint 4:20 On Tour 0.5pt win 14/1<br />Aint 5:15 Pleasant Company 0.5pt win
20/1<br />Aint 5:15 Dounikos 0.5pt win 28/1<br /><br /><b>Mentions </b><br /><br />Aint
3:40 Kilbricken Storm (w/o Apples Jade)</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-26112342753196441072019-04-07T13:00:00.001-07:002019-04-07T13:00:30.854-07:00Review of the day<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I was shocked to see how quickly the ground had
dried out at Aintree, this afternoon.<br />
<br />
After yesterdays rain, I was expecting it to be at least soft -
maybe edging towards heavy: but instead, it was more good to soft…<br />
<br />
In truth, that probably helped Felix Desjy - as I did have a
slight concern about him handling very testing conditions.<br />
<br />
However, as it transpired, it wasn’t the ground that nearly found
out - but his jumping ! <br />
<br />
He’s a very free going horse - and I was pleased to see Jack
Kennedy able to get an uncontested lead on him.<br />
However, I was less pleased to see him get the fourth hurdle
completely wrong.<br />
<br />
A shuddering mistake saw him lose ground and momentum - so it says
much for his ability that he was able to maintain his lead, and
get back into a rhythm.<br />
<br />
From that point on, it was about Kennedy getting his fractions
right and Felix not messing up his jumping ! - and fortunately,
both delivered.<br />
<br />
It briefly looked, after jumping the last, that Aramon might run
him down.<br />
But Felix doesn’t lack for stamina - or heart - and he saw it out
strongly…<br />
<br />
Things hadn’t gone quite so well in the opening race on the card.<br />
I’d narrowed it down to 5 - but only one of the 5 managed to even
get placed !<br />
<br />
That said, if I’d been aware of the gamble that was going to take
place on Three Musketeers, I would have increased my short list to
6 !<br />
<br />
Making his debut for Gordon Elliot, he was an easy to back 16/1
shot for most of the day - but was hammered in to 8/1, just before
the off.<br />
<br />
Ultimately, he only just got home, under a power packed Kennedy
drive - but he did get home.<br />
Mont des Avaloirs on the other hand, never featured and was pulled
up…<br />
<br />
The only other tips on the day, ran in the Topham - and once
again, the race was won by a horse who was punted as if defeat was
out of the question.<br />
<br />
I had tipped Call It Magic - and he was incredibly strong in the
early market - but in the key minutes before the off, his price
began to drift…<br />
<br />
By contrast, Cadmium, who was a weak 20/1 shot all morning, came
in for massive support - and was eventually sent off at just 8/1.<br />
<br />
He led throughout, jumping for fun - and whilst Call it Magic was
just in behind him in second place when unshipping his jockey at
the canal turn, I don’t honestly think it made any difference to
the result.<br />
<br />
I’ve said before: whilst they may be the biggest races, run at the
biggest meetings - when the top stables really go for one, the
result tends to be the same as when Gary Moore lines one up on a
wet Monday at Plumpton !<br />
<br />
Ballyhill was the second tip in the race.<br />
However, he was also weak in the late betting - and seemed to
struggle with the big fences…<br />
<br />
As for the Mentions:<br />
Then Topofthegame ran like a horse who hadn’t fully recovered from
his Cheltenham exertions.<br />
He’d looked brilliant in the RSA, but he looked laboured this
afternoon.<br />
I’m sure he’ll bounce back next season.<br />
<br />
In the following race, Waiting Patently ran like a horse who is
never going to reach the levels he once looked capable of.<br />
He finished just behind Politologue - suggesting that he has
probably regressed.<br />
However, it was kind of irrelevant as Min blew them both away,
winning by 20 lengths in a manner similar to that of stablemate
Kemboy, yesterday.<br />
With Cadmium almost as impressive, I’m wondering if Willie Mullins
has discovered some new ‘wonder feed’ !<br />
<br />
I was dead against Champ in the 3 mile novice hurdle: but the
drying ground and steady pace meant that it wasn’t quite the
stamina test I expected.<br />
He clearly possesses plenty of class, and he cruised through the
race - and won as he liked.<br />
Walk Away ran a really good race to finish fourth - but it was
still a wise move not to tip him.<br />
<br />
Finally, the 3 horses I mentioned in the bumper, filled the first
3 places.<br />
It did briefly look as if Thebannerkingrebel was going to pull off
a mini shock - but McFabulous outbattled him in the final furlong
- with Santa Rossa back in third…<br />
<br />
Just one day of the season to go…<br />
<br />
TVB.</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-73326696420565635562019-04-07T12:59:00.001-07:002019-04-07T12:59:15.182-07:00Daily write-up - Apr 5th (Aintree Day 2)<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Day 2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting.<br /><br />The rain
yesterday afternoon, turned the ground to soft - and whilst the weather should
be much better today, I suspect the ground won’t be ! <br /><br />At least we have a
better idea of what we will be facing - even if it’s not what we would have
liked !<br /><br />As I said in the review, yesterday was a frustrating
day.<br /><br />The polarisation of the markets at these big meetings, is getting
ridiculous.<br /><br />I’ve no idea how Road to Rome could be sent off at 11/4 in a
27 runner race over the National fences; or indeed how Minella Melody could be
sent of at 6/4 in 20 runner bumper, packed full of unexposed and potentially
useful sorts.<br /><br />Ofcourse, neither horse won, which suggests there should
have been value elsewhere in the markets - but I’m not sure that was the
case…<br /><br />The prices of the other runners who had decent chances, were all
pretty accurate (so minimal margin) - it’s the speculative ones who are
available at ‘value’ prices…<br /><br />That’s all well and good if you are in it
for the long haul, because every now and then a horse will win at 100/1, when it
should have been 33/1 - but it’s not really a game we can easily
play.<br /><br />That makes it hard to control the P&L in the way that I’ve done
through the early part of the season.<br /><br />As I said after Cheltenham, I need
to think how best to handle these big festivals.<br />Reducing stakes helps - but
I’m not sure it is the full answer.<br /><br />Anyway, that’s for another
day.<br /><br />For today, we’ve got an excellent set of races - even if betting
opportunities aren’t quite so good ! <br /><br />That said, I’ve still managed to
find 4 tips, across 3 races.<br /><br />Here’s the rationale behind them - along
with my thoughts on the days other
races…<br /><br /><br /><b>Aintree</b><br /><br /><b>1:45 </b><br /><br />Thee may be 22
runners in this, but I’ll be quite surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the
top 5 in the betting…<br />Having opened up at 10/1 yesterday, Tedham has been
very well backed and is now a short priced favourite.<br />The case for him is
strong: he’s a young improving horse, who was an impressive winner of a decent
handicap last time - and has only been raised 6lb for that win.<br />It’s not hard
to envisage him following up in this - though I’m a little surprised that Jonjo
O’Neil Jnr hasn’t been given the ride, to offset the weight rise. Maybe
connections feel he has more than enough, in hand of his mark !<br />He’s the most
likely winner of the race - but 7/2 is a woefully short price…<br />Second
favourite is Brio Conti - and there is a chance that he will become the third
horse to win at Aintree, that I tipped it at Cheltenham !<br />Certainly, he ran a
huge race at Cheltenham - and the flatter Aintree track should suit him
better.<br />However, he has been raised 2lb for that run; probably had a hard
race - and may not be suited by the softening ground.<br />He clearly has a big
chance - but 6/1 is too short to warrant getting involved.<br />Carnadier finished
just behind Brio Conti at Cheltenham - and there should be little between the
pair again today. However, he’s another who would prefer quicker ground.<br />It’s
hard to know what ground Esprit Du Large would prefer, as he’s only run 4 times
in his life.<br />However, he’s shown a good level of form - and was entered for
the grade 1 novice hurdle, on tomorrows card.<br />His opening mark of 132 looks
reasonable - but I expect the betting will prove an accurate guide on his
chance… <br />The final one of the ‘big 5’ is Mont Des Avaloirs…<br />Like Brio
Conti, he is trained by Paul Nicholls and he ran really well at Newbury in
November, when a fast finishing third in the Gerry Fieldon hurdle.<br />He was
arguably unlucky not to win that day - and gets to run today, off exactly the
same mark. That’s because he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs - but
stepped up in trip this afternoon, I expect him to do much better…<br />Unlike his
stablemate, he should relish the underfoot conditions - and Lorcan Williams
takes off a useful 5lb.<br />At 12/1, he looks the value bet, amongst the fancied
horses…<br />Away from the head of the market, I could give half chances to Wait
for Me, Joke Dancer and Doctor Dex - but as I said in the introduction, chasing
theoretical value at the big festivals, is a high risk strategy
!<br /><br /><b>2:20</b><br /><br />I’m quite keen on Felix Desjy in this.<br />His most
recent run was in the Supreme hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, and turning in,
it looked as if he was going to give Klassical Dream a real race.<br />However,
his petrol gauge began to flicker ‘empty’, on the run to the final flight - and
he was passed by Itchy Feet (plus a couple of others) on the run in.<br />He
eventually finished fifth - just in front of Aramon - but I think there is an
argument that he was the second best horse in the race…<br />Certainly, I’m
optimistic that Aintrees flatter track will enable him to reverse the form with
Itchy Feet - whilst I can’t see any reason why he shouldn’t again beat
Aramon.<br />That said, this is not a 3 horse race !<br />The other 4 runners can
all be given a chance - though it’s not easy to accurately assess their
respective ability.<br />On official ratings, Southfield Stone is the best of them
- but lines through Grand Sancy and Angels Breath, suggest he shouldn’t beat
Felix.<br />Similarly collateral form lines suggest that Rouge Vif shouldn’t be
quite good enough - though I do think he will appreciate todays track.<br />As a
consequence, Precious Cargo and Winston C could emerge as the biggest dangers -
certainly, they are the hardest ones to dismiss.<br />However Precious Cargo is
plenty short enough in the betting at 7/2, on the back of a couple of wins in
novice hurdles: Whilst Winston C only just won a handicap last time off a mark
of 137 - and he’ll need to show significant improvement (which he may well do),
if he’s going to get involved this afternoon.<br /><br /><b>2:50 </b><br /><br />All
things being equal, Topofthegame should take a world of beating in this…<br />He
was an impressive winner of a red hot running of the RSA chase at Cheltenham,
last time - and based on that form, he is the best horse in this race by some
margin.<br />He stepped up to reach that level, but even on the form of his
previous second to La Bague au Roi in the Feltham chase at Kempton, he is still
the one to beat.<br />In fairness, that form doesn’t give him much in hand of
Lostintranslation - and there is a chance that the latter will improve for
todays step up in trip - but he will need to ! <br />Furthermore,
Lostintranslation himself, is a fair way ahead of the other runners (10lb+, on
official figures) - so this race appears a bit too straightforward, to warrant
getting involved with…<br />The only caveats are: if his efforts at Cheltenham
have taken the edge off Topofthegame (and Lostintranslation); or if the ground
has turned really soft.<br />Heavy ground could certainly open things up.<br />I
would expect Topofthegame to handle it - but I wouldn’t be so sure about
Lostintranslation.<br />It would also greatly improve the chances of Chris’s Dream
and Top Ville Ben - both of whom are real mud lovers.<br />However, as things
stand this morning, I don’t expect the ground to be heavy (just soft) - and I’ve
no reason for thinking that Topofthegame won’t run his race (or indeed
Lostintranslation).<br />In the circumstances, it has to be a watching
race…<br /><br /><b>3:25 </b><br /><br />This is another race where it’s hard to see an
angle…<br />Politologue and Min fought out a tight finish to the corresponding
race 12 months ago - and both look likely to run well again this
afternoon.<br />That said, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they were eclipsed by
Waiting Patiently…<br />He’s met Politologue twice previously - and come out on
top on both occasions.<br />He’s also likely to be better suited by todays
conditions (2m4f and soft ground).<br />The trouble is, he didn’t look entirely
committed last time - and the application of first time cheek pieces, is a
worrying development…<br />I still think he is the most likely winner - but you
don’t want too many doubts if you are backing a 2/1 shot.<br />It’s hard to make a
much of a case for the other 4 runners:<br />Top Notch looks best of them - but he
has regularly shown himself to be a few pounds shy of this level:<br />Hells
Kitchen is not as exposed - and has been a big improver this season. However, he
seemed to have his limitations exposed last time, when finishing fourth in the
Champion chase (well adrift of Politologue).<br />He could improve again, for
todays step up in trip - but he will need to.<br />Gods Own is an admirable horse:
but he’s better going right handed; would prefer quicker ground - and is also
past his peak ! Whilst Woodlands Opera shouldn't be good enough - and would
prefer quicker ground…<br />In summary, Waiting Patiently should win this -
provided he performs to his best.<br />Whether he represents any value at 2/1
however, is a different matter…<br /><br /><b>4:05 </b><br /><br />It’s always
disappointing when you really fancy a horse, only to find out that everyone else
does as well ! <br />I’ve had Call it Magic on my radar since the 5 day
declarations for this race were released - I was just trying to pick my moment
to tip him.<br />As you all know, I won’t tip in to immature markets, because I
realise that many of you won’t be able to get on (and those who can, will be
risking account restrictions).<br />I therefore patiently waited until there was
proper liquidity on the exchanges (over £1K to back on BF) before I tipped
him.<br />Unfortunately, by that point, literally every industry tipster I’d seen
output from, had also tipped him ! (most aren’t quite so bothered about when
they issue the tips !) <br />As a result his price was under serious pressure -
though hopefully you all managed to at least secure 8/1 (10/1 minus a 20%
margin).<br />In terms of the case for him, then it is quite blatant (which is why
he’s so popular !).<br />He was a massive eye catcher over todays course, when
finishing fourth in the Becher chase, back in November.<br />He tanked through the
race that day, jumping from fences to fence - and turning for home, it simply
appeared a question of how far he would win by.<br />However, his stamina gave out
- and he weakened on the run in.<br />Todays race is over 5 furlongs less - so
stamina won’t be an issue ! In fact, he is more likely to lack tactical speed
!<br />Hopefully that won’t be case. Certainly he ran well enough on his only
subsequent outing, when second at Fairyhouse - and that was over a trip just 2
furlongs further than today.<br />If he does get into the same rhythm that he got
into in November, then there is no doubt that he is going to be very hard to
beat…<br />That said, with 27 runners over the National fences, there's a fair
chance that luck will play a part.<br />Therefore I think it is worth having a
second string to the bow…<br />Ballyhill has never run over the National fences -
though he has won over the Mildmay course.<br />That was in December - and he won
really impressively.<br />He came up short on his next outing - but subsequent
events showed that his third place to Siruh du Lac and Janika, was top class
handicap form, as the pair went on to fight out the finish to the Plate at the
festival.<br />Janika re-opposes Ballyhill this afternoon - but his subsequent
exploits mean he is a stone worse off at the weights.<br />Janika is also a
relatively small horse, so having to lug round 11st12lb this afternoon, is
likely to prove a real challenge for him.<br />In short, I expect Ballyhill to
come out best of the pair…<br />Outside the 3 mentioned, there are plenty who can
be given half chances - but non who stick out.<br />Adrien du Pont, Activial,
Flying Angel and Henryville are all capable of putting in big runs.<br />That
said, I’m happy enough to side with Call it Magic and Ballyhill.<br /><br /><b>4:40
</b><br /><br />I did intend to get involved with this race, simply because I think
that Champ should be taken on…<br />I felt the same about him at Cheltenham - and
whilst I was ultimately proven right, he ran much better than I expected, when
finishing second in the Ballymore.<br />Based on that form, he has a favourites
chance this afternoon - however, I can’t see him appreciating todays step up in
trip, on rain softened ground.<br />He’s a very keen going horse - and I’ll be
most surprised, if his stamina lasts out…<br />The trouble is, even with him out
of consideration, this looks like a particularly hot contest.<br />Dallas des
Pictons probably sets the standard - even though he is stepping up from handicap
company.<br />However, I’ll be a little surprised if there aren’t one or two
better than him…<br />Emitom is the obvious one - and he would certainly hold
plenty of appeal, if his defeat of Lisnagar Oscar could be taken at face
value.<br />That said, Downtown Getaway, Walk Away, Trevelyns Corn and Ardlethen,
are 4 others who have shown themselves decidedly useful - and also have
limitless potential.<br />Whist even a few of the rank outsides, couldn’t be
dismissed with total confidence…<br />My plan had been to tip Walk Away - as it
strikes me, potentially significant, that Henry de Bromhead is prepared to pitch
a once raced horse into a contest of this quality.<br />I certainly feel that he
is a particularly interesting runner - however, I’m just not convinced that he
should be a tip.<br />In a race where most of the runners have a chance - and the
winner is likely to show significantly improved form - I think a watching brief
is the best policy…<br /><br /><b>5:15</b><br /><br />This is not a race on which I have
a particularly strong view (even less so than the mares bumper,
yesterday).<br />That said, I was very taken by the win of Santa Rossa at the
Dublin racing festival - and with Finnie Maguire over to take the ride, I would
be unlikely to look too much further, if I did play in the race.<br />Certainly, I
prefer him to the other market leader, McFabulous - accepting that he may just
have had an off day, when disappointing badly at Cheltenham in November.<br />Of
those at bigger prices, Thebannerkingrebel makes most appeal.<br />He’s not run
since being pulled up in last seasons Champion bumper at the Cheltenham
festival.<br />However, he was unbeaten in his 2 runs prior to that - so clearly
has plenty of ability.<br />A recent wind op hints at the cause of his issues -
and if that procedure has sorted him out, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see
him run a very big race.<br /><br /><br />Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!<br /><br />TVB.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Tips</b><br /><br />Aint 1:45 Mont Des
Avaloirs 0.5pt win 12/1<br />Aint 2:20 Felix Desjy 1pt win 6/1<br />Aint 4:05 Call
it Magic 1pt win 10/1<br />Aint 4:05 Ballyhill 0.5pt win
11/1<br /><br /><b>Mentions</b><br /><br />2:50 Topofthegame (P )<br />3:25 Waiting
Patiently (P )<br />4:40 Walk Away (S )<br />5:15 Santa Rossa (S )</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-62430638766349894432019-04-07T12:58:00.001-07:002019-04-07T12:58:15.617-07:00Review of the day<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Today ended up a very frustrating day: as I felt I got a lot
right - but ultimately, was left with nothing to show for it…<br /><br />To an
extent, things weren’t helped by the rain which arrived during the afternoon.
<br />It turned the ground to soft - and also affected both the shape of some of
the fields and the way some of the races were run.<br /><br />The softening of the
ground certainly did Christopher Wood no favours.<br />He was the first tip to run
- and would definitely have preferred quicker conditions.<br /><br />Despite that,
he still ran a good race to finish third - but was no match for either Pentland
Hills or Fakir D’oudaries (the latter being greatly helped by the
rain).<br /><br />Next it was Bristol de Mai and Balko des Flo - and they also ran
well. <br />However, they really bumped into one in the shape of Kemboy - who
simply blew the race apart !<br /><br />As an unexposed horse, I guess that was
always possible - but I honestly didn’t think he had that kind of performance in
him.<br />In fairness, he was the only member of the field who hadn’t been
involved in a tough race at Cheltenham - so maybe that proved
decisive.<br /><br />Whatever, he never looked like losing - which was a shame, as
Balko des Flo ran a massive race for an unconsidered 33/1 shot - and was a touch
unlucky not to at least claim the runner up spot (he ploughed through the last -
and was over taken just before the line).<br /><br />I also put up 2 in the
Foxhunters, in the shape of Sir Jack Yeates and Greensalt - and again, they both
ran really well.<br />In fact, they were 2 of 6, still in with a chance jumping
the final fence.<br />However, both ran out of steam on the run in (probably not
helped by the soft ground).<br /><br />That was a real shame - particularly for
Greensalt, who I’d put up EW - and who looked sure to at least place, when he
mounted his challenge approaching the last…<br /></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: 12pt; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-spacerun: 'yes';"></span>With
Diego du Charmil taken out on account of the ground, we were left with just
R’evelyn Pleasure in the Red Rum.<br /><span style="font-family: Calibri;">He ran poorly and was
never sighted - but the frustration with him, was that he was closely tied on
form, to Moon over Germany - the comfortable race winner !</span><br /><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><br />In fact, I only opted for R’evelyn Pleasure because he was
twice the price of Moon over Germany, this morning - I guess that can happen
when you are a ‘value bettor’ !<br /><br />The other frustration was that Lady
Buttons, who finished second, was comfortably held on form by Diego du Charmil -
suggesting that one would have gone very close if he had been able to
run.<br /><br />As least it all suggested I was in the right ball park ! <br /><br />As
for the Mentions:<br /><br />Then, in the circumstances, it was no big surprise to
see Kalashnikov get the better of La Bague au Roi, in the opener !<br />The softer
ground probably helped him - and Dickie Johnson maybe didn’t get his fractions
quite right on the mare - they are fine lines.<br /><br />It also wasn’t a great
surprise to see Buveur D’air beaten in the feature hurdle race - and by another
horse who I’d tipped at Cheltenham !<br />It would have been hard to support
Supasundae again after his disappointing run last time - and I suspect a bit of
luck helped him get home in front today (with the leader, Melon, falling at the
third last - and hampering Buveur D'air).<br /><br />Finally, the closing bumper was
won by the Glancing Queen, who stayed on well to beat Minella Melody.<br />Farne
ran a great race to finish fourth - but that wouldn’t have been much good, even
if I had tipped her each way !<br /><br />Maybe the ‘luck’ imbalance will even
itself out tomorrow…<br /><br />TVB.</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-56055402174976768502019-04-07T12:57:00.000-07:002019-04-07T12:57:05.064-07:00Daily write-up - Apr 4th (Aintree Day 1)<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Day 1 of the Aintree Grand National meeting…<br /><br />As was
the case at Cheltenham, the weather has decided that it would be amusing to try
and mess things up !<br /><br />Considering how little rain we’ve had over the past
5 months, it’s staggering that we had significant rainfall in the build up to
Cheltenham - and the same thing has happened again this week.
<br /><br />Consequently, we can only guess on the state of the ground on the
opening day.<br />My guess is on the soft side of good - assuming there’s no more
rain before racing gets underway !<br /><br />In addition to having to guess the
state of the ground, we’ve also got to guess the state of the horses who ran at
Cheltenham.<br /><br />This is a perennial issue at Aintree - just how much did the
Cheltenham exertions take out of the various runners ?<br /><br />Of course, it
varies from horse to horse - and so is impossible to generalise on.<br />It’s also
impossible to know for sure, until it’s too late !<br /><br />Needless to say, all
the uncertainty doesn't make things any easier !<br /><br />What does make things
easier (compared to Cheltenham), is that field sizes tend to be a bit smaller -
and we have a bit more relevant form to work with…<br /><br />Ultimately, I’ve ended
up with 7 tips on the day - but across just 4 of the races.<br /><br />I’ve paired
back a bit on staking, as the competitive nature of racing, and very accurate
markets - mean that either our edge is much smaller than normal, or the risk we
take, much greater.<br />Either way, it doesn’t feel right to be staking at the
same level, as during the rest of the season…<br /><br />Anyway, here’s the
rationale behind the horses that I’ve tipped - along with my thoughts on the
other races on the card…<br /><br /><br /><b>Aintree
</b><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>1:45</b><br /><br />Le Bague au Roi is clearly the one
to beat in this.<br />On official ratings, she is just 1lb below the top rated
horse in the race - yet she receives a 7lb sex allowance from all her
rivals.<br />More than that, she is unbeaten in her 4 chase starts this season -
and has a great attitude.<br />The form of her wins - particularly her penultimate
victory in the Feltham chase at Kempton on Boxing day, stands up to the closest
scrutiny.<br />She has been targeted at Aintree, so that she gets to run on a flat
track (unlike Cheltenham) - and whilst todays trip on good-ish ground is likely
to be the minimum distance she wants, there should be lots of pace in the race,
and Dickie Johnson will almost certainly make plenty of use of her.<br />She is
very much the one to beat - and a price of around 7/4 strikes me as perfectly
fair…<br />In terms of her opponents, then she appears to hold the 3 outsiders in
the race - either on direct form, or collateral form.<br />Le Bague as Roi
comfortably beat Spiritofthegames, at Newbury in November: whilst she has twice
proven herself the superior of Lostintranslation, and that one finished well
ahead of Mengli Khan the JLT at the Cheltenham festival.<br />Castafiore finished
even further back that day - yet on her previous outing he had run Bags Groove
close at Kempton.<br />The suggestion being that Bags Groove shouldn’t be able to
beat Le Bague au Roi.<br />As a consequence, the 2 main dangers to the mare,
appear to be Glen Forsa and Kalashnikov.<br />They both ran in the Arkle last time
- with neither completing.<br />I wouldn’t be surprised to see them improve for a
step up in trip today - but whether they will improve sufficiently to beat Le
Bague au Roi, is a different matter.<br />Of the 2, I prefer the chance of
Kalashnikov - and if there is a bet in the race, it is probably him at
5/1.<br />That said, I think Le Bague au Roi is the more likely winner - which
makes tipping him at that price, a bit tricky…<br /><b><br /></b><b>2:20
</b><br /><br />Understandably, Pentland Hills and Band of Outlaws dominate the
market for this…<br />They took the 2 juvenile races at the Cheltenham festival:
with Pentland Hills capturing the grade 1 Triumph hurdle and Band of Outlaws the
Fred Winter handicap.<br />Ordinarily, you would expect the winner of the Triumph
to be superior to the winner of the Fred Winter.<br />However, with Sir Erec
breaking down in the Triumph, that race ended up relatively weak; whilst Band of
Outlaws was was a scintillating winner of the Fred Winter (having been backed as
if defeat was out of the question).<br />The suggestion is that there may not be
much between the pair - and I actually prefer the claims of Band of
Outlaws…<br />Third favourite is Fakir D’oudaries. He also ran at the festival,
when finishing fourth in the all age Supreme hurdle.<br />He was sent off
favourite for that race, and whilst he was ultimately quite well beaten, he
still ran a fair race.<br />That said, his forte does appear to be stamina, so
it’s questionable whether the quicker Aintree track will suit his as well as
Cheltenham did…<br />Christopher Wood is next in the betting - and unlike his 3
main rivals, he didn’t run at Cheltenham.<br />I would view that as a positive -
though it does mean that we can only guess as to how much ability he has. That
said, the official assessor has given him a rating of 142 - just 7lb shy of Band
of Outlaws.<br />He certainly has plenty of scope - so I there is a definite
chance that he he can improve past the market principals.<br />Whilst his flat
rating of 85, is superior to that of Pentland Hills - and he’s shown a good
aptitude for hurdling.<br />Band of Outlaws looks like he’s the one to beat -
particularly as he was rated higher than Christopher Wood on the flat.<br />That
said, his price is plenty short enough (7/4) - and he did have quite a tough
race at Cheltenham.<br />In the circumstances, I think Christopher Wood is worth a
small risk.<br /><br /><b>2:50 </b><br /><br />This is a tough race to call…<br />A case
can be made for all 4 of the markets leaders - but I think that Bristol de Mai
represents a bit of value, at 4/1.<br />He finished third in the Gold Cup - 2
places and 5 lengths ahead of Clan des Obeaux.<br />He had also beaten the same
horse earlier in the season. at Haydock - and when finishing second in this race
12 months ago (behind Might Bite).<br />Assuming he’s at his peak, the form book
says he’s the most likely winner.<br />However, following a very hard race in the
Gold Cup, he is not guaranteed to be at his peak - however, at a price 4/1, I
think he is worth a risk. <br />Certainly, he makes more appeal than Clan des
Obeaux does at 5/2 - even if that one still seems to be improving.<br />The 2
other market leaders are Kemboy and Road to Respect - and based on their run at
Leopardstown over Christmas, the former should come out best in their
duel.<br />However, I think he could have been flattered by that run and at their
respective odds (5/2 and 5/1), Road to Respect holds the greater appeal (but not
quite as much as Bristol de Mai).<br />It’s hard to make a case for Elegant
Escape, as he’s likely to find this an insufficient test of stamina.<br />Balko
des Flos on the other hand, is quite interesting - even if it requires an act of
faith to support him bouncing back to form today, after a number of poor
runs.<br />That said, he travelled powerfully for a lot of the race last time in
the Ryanair Chase - and definitely makes some appeal, at 33/1.<br />He ran Road to
Respect close in last seasons Irish Gold Cup, and if back to that level of form,
he could be right in the mix this afternoon.<br /><br /><b>3:25 </b><br /><br />It’s
quite tempting to take on Buveur D’air in this…<br />On official ratings, he has
at least 8lb on hand of all of his rivals - and a stone in hand of most of
them.<br />However, aside from a seasonal debut, which may have flattered him,
he’s not looked at his best this season - and he also comes here on the back of
a mid-race fall in the Champion hurdle.<br />That’s not really the profile you
would want for an odds-on shot - the problem is finding one to oppose him
with…<br />Faugheen should be obvious one - however he’s now 11 and in decline. I
will be surprised if he is good enough to win.<br />It’s a similar story with
Supasundae. I tipped him in the stayers race at Cheltenham - but he ran
disappointingly. Whilst it’s true that he may not have stayed the trip, he was
under pressure, a long way out - and that’s harder to explain.<br />If he were to
bounce back to his best, he could certainly give Buveur D’air a race - but I’m
not sure that’s going to happen…<br />Aside from those 2, all of the other runners
have at least a stone to find with Buveur D’air on official ratings - and most
are unproven over the trip.<br />Consequently, it’s hard to select one with any
confidence, to beat him…<br />Summerville Boy is perhaps the most interesting -
though he has also got the most to prove.<br />Based on his novice form from last
season, a case could be constructed - but he’s been massively disappointing in
his 2 run this season (though admittedly, he did injure himself last
time).<br />For those desperate for a bit of action, he could be worth a tiny play
- but officially speaking, I feel that it has to be a watching race…
<br /><b><br /></b><b>4:05 </b><br /><br />When I looked at this race with no awareness
of the betting, I felt that Road to Rome was the most interesting runner.<br />He
ran a huge race in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham last time out, attacking from
the front and only getting caught on the run to the last.<br />He should get home
fine, over todays shorter trip - and his prominent racing style and sound
jumping, will both be big assets.<br />However, whether they warrant him being a
7/2 shot in a 27 runner race over the Grand National fences, is a different
matter ! <br />The fences may be much easier to jump nowadays - but they still
present a challenge: and in such a big field, luck can often play a part.<br />I
think you would want around 3/1 about any horse to jump round cleanly - and not
to meet interference.<br />That being the case, it doesn’t leave a lot of margin
for him being the best horse in the race !<br />And I don’t think that’s
guaranteed - even ignoring the fact that his Cheltenham run may have taken the
edge off him.<br />In the circumstances, I felt I had to look elsewhere…<br />And
the funny thing was, the more I looked, the more alternatives found !
<br />Burning Ambition, Kruzlinin and Ucello Conti are the next 3 in the betting -
and they all have a chance - but there are also quite a few at big prices, who
make some appeal.<br />Chief amongst those is Sir Jack Yeats.<br />He ran in the
corresponding race last year - and did reasonably well, despite having a far
from ideal preparation.<br />He looks to have been targeted at the race this year:
and as he’s still only 8 - and now has experience of the course under his belt -
he looks a good bet at 18/1.<br />Greensalt also ran in the race last year - and
he managed to finish a very honourable third.<br />He actually led over the last -
but wandered on the run in and got passed by a couple of his rivals.<br />At 11,
he’s younger than the horses who beat him last year - so there must be a decent
chance he can reverse the form.<br />Like Sir Jack Yeats, he also look to have
been targeted at the race - and whilst he may lack a touch of class, I wouldn’t
be surprised if he were to run another very big race.<br />Road to Riches and Pass
the Hat are 2 more, at big prices (the latter, a very big price !), who I
considered getting involved with - but I figured 2 darts at the race was
probably sufficient ! <br /><br /><b>4:40 </b><br /><br />My start point for this race,
was Lady Buttons. <br />I’ve been really taken by her this season - and whilst she
has climbed the handicap as a consequence of her efforts, I wouldn’t be
surprised if she were capable of winning another decent race.<br />Thomas Dowson
now rides her - and whilst he’s not been able to claim his allowance on her 2
most recent outings - he can do today.<br />I felt that would be sufficient to
make her a tip - however, the form book says she can’t beat Diego du Charmil !
<br />He beat her by 9 lengths at this meeting 12 months ago - and is 1lb better
off today (ignoring the jockey claim). <br />Furthermore, he is the younger, less
exposed horse - so should have greater scope for improvement.<br />Whether he has
improved since then, is impossible to say.<br />He’s only run 4 times in the
intervening period - and on 3 of throe occasions, he’s bumped into Altior in
small field graded races.<br />Unsurprisingly he wasn’t up to beating him (or even
getting particularly close) - but that would be the case for the entire equine
population !<br />It’s is a slight worry that he has to carry top weight - but in
absolute terms, a mark of 155 for a grade 1 winner, isn’t bad - and graded
horses have an uncanny knack of winning handicaps, when they run in
them…<br />There are plenty of others who could be considered for a second bet in
the race - but I’ve opted to go to the other end of the handicap.<br />R’evelyn
Pleasure receives 24lb from Diego du Charmil - which is a lot of weight ! <br />In
fairness, he’s not shown anything like the form of the top weight - but equally,
he’s not had many chances to do so.<br />He’s a relatively unexposed novice, who
has won 2 of his 6 races over fences and still seems to be
improving.<br />Certainly he ran really well on his penultimate outing, in a hot
handicap at the Dublin racing festival - and again last time behind Ex Patriot
at Gowran.<br />On both occasions, he didn’t quite get home, so the relative speed
test of Aintree should suit him well.<br />Eamon an Cnoc appears to head the list
of dangers - and whilst I can’t really see it myself, plenty of good judges can
! (which makes me nervous !).<br />I can see an argument for Moon over Germany -
but he was half the price of R’evelyn Pleasure and they are closely matched on
Leopardstown form: Whilst I can also see argument for Champagne at Tara and
Cracking Find, both at big prices.<br /><b><br /></b><b>5:15 </b><br /><br />The
Glancing Queen sets the standard for this race, on the back of her fifth place
in the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival.<br />That was a huge
performance - and back against her own sex this afternoon, she should take a
fair bit of beating - assuming she is capable of repeating the form.<br />In
truth, that’s not guaranteed to happen: both because that run may have take an
edge of her: and also because she may not be as well suited by todays
track…<br />The strong market support for Minella Melody suggests that she could
be hard to beat, this afternoon.<br />She was sent off at odds on for her debut at
Gowran - and duly hacked up by 12 lengths.<br />It’s impossible to get a proper
handle on the form - but it appears that she could be very good…<br />In truth,
this is not a race that could be approached with any confidence, as virtually
all of the runners are unexposed and capable of big improvement.<br />Farne was
the one that interested me most, on the back of a third placing in a listed
event at Sandown.<br />She finished behind Misty Whiskey that day - but travelled
best in the race and is a fair bet to reverse the form, at the available odds
(7/1 and 16/1).<br />The other one of moderate interest, is Who What When.<br />She
is unbeaten in her 2 races - the second of those at listed level - and looks
over-priced at 25/1 (presumably because of her connections).<br />The trouble is,
it is completely guesswork as to whether either Farne or Who What When, will be
good enough to win this much stronger contest.<br />In the circumstances, it has
to be a watching race…<br /><br />Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!<br /><br />TVB.<br /><br /><br /><br /><b><br /></b><b>Tips </b><br /><br />Aint 2:20
Christopher Wood 0.5pt win 11/1<br />Aint 2:50 Bristol de Mai 1pt win 4/1<br />Aint
2:50 Balko des Flos 0.25pt win 33/1 (saver)<br />Aint 4:05 Greensalt 0.25pt EW
33/1 <br />Aint 4:05 Sir Jack Yeats 0.5pt win 18/1<br />Aint 4:40 R'evelyn Pleasure
0.5pt win 20/1<br />Aint 4:40 Diego du Charmil 0.5pt win
15/2<br /><br /><b>Mentions</b><br /><br />Aint 1:45 Kalashnikov (O )<br />Aint 3:25
Summerville Boy (S )<br />Aint 5:15 Farne & Who What When (S )</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-70838429594751247622019-03-30T06:00:00.000-07:002019-04-02T05:59:49.686-07:00Review of the day<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It was nice to finish the month with a winner - though I
couldn’t help but feel that things should have been even better…<br /><br />The win
came courtesy of Eddiemaurice, who got up under a pulsating drive from Jamie
Moore, to deny Caid du Lin in the shadows of the post.<br /><br />As I said this
morning, I viewed Caid du Lin as the main danger to Eddiemaurice, and I got
within an inch of having a saver on him.<br /><br />He had drifted out to 5/1 at
10:30 - which I thought was an acceptable price: but was then trimmed back to
9/2, just before 11:00.<br />It was a borderline call - and ultimately it didn’t
matter - but I would have been gutted if the photo finish had gone the other way
!<br /><br />For once however, fate smiled on us - and in truth, it was nothing less
than Eddie and Jamie deserved…<br /><br />Interestingly, despite an SP of 6/1 - his
BSP was almost 9/1.<br />Every winner that I have tipped during March, has had a
bigger BSP than the advised price - which is certainly food for thought (and
should help to discourage chasing down prices, when the tips are issued !)
<br /><br />I did think that Robin des Foret was going to deliver a second win on
the day, just 10 mins later.<br /><br />Ridden very patiently by Paul Townend, he
came there cruising after the second last (traded at 1.34 in
running).<br />However, not for the first time this season, Ruby denied us a
payout - this time by galvanising Burrows Saint.<br /><br />My feeling was that
Robin des Foret didn’t really stay the trip - whereas I had expected him to
improve for it.<br />I guess I can’t read everything right !<br /><br />Bigbadjohn was
the final tip on day - and he ran a little disappointingly…<br /><br />He gave up
the outside to no one (which I think is because he doesn’t like to be crowded in
his races) - and his jumping wasn’t fluent.<br /><br />Despite that, he still looked
to have a decent chance, a mile from home - but then the race temp quickened and
he got outpaced.<br />He was staying on again at the end - but it wasn’t enough to
even get him a place…<br /><br />As for the Mentions: <br />Then there was a bit of
frustration that I felt unable to tip Star Max.<br />As you all know, I try to
play the tipping as fairly as possible: issuing only when people can get on
(without fear of account closure !) - and in races with robust markets.<br />Star
Max was running in a relatively minor race, which I wouldn’t have felt
comfortable tipping in.<br />That was a shame as he performed as I hoped - and
ended up a game winner.<br />I know that quite a few of you backed him
'unofficially', which is always a consolation. <br />TVB - the service that gives
a little bit more :)<br /><br />The days 2 other mentions ran at Ascot.<br />Honorable
never really featured in a very competitive juvenile hurdle: whilst Favorito
Bucks was always flat out, trying to get himself into the right position in the
handicap chase.<br />I was pleased that I didn’t chase down the price on him.
<br />I fancied him strongly - but was aware that the trip could be an issue and
therefore demanded some margin in his price.<br /><br />Simply, you have to show
discipline with prices, if you are going to bet profitably…<br /><br />TVB.</span> The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-69543730774590750512019-03-30T05:58:00.000-07:002019-04-02T11:25:20.915-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 31st<span style="font-family: "calibri";">There are 2 NH meetings today: at Ascot and
Limerick.<br /><br />Things have been very quiet since Cheltenham: in truth, things
have been very quiet for the past month - aside from Cheltenham !<br /><br />That
will change this week, however.<br /><br />Not so much today: though both of the
days meetings have some merit - but from Thursday onwards, when the Grand
National meeting begins at Aintree…<br /><br />Today provides a nice aperitif for
that:<br />There is some decent racing at both Ascot and Limerick - and I
particularly appreciated seeing the final declarations, 48 hours in
advance.<br /><br />It makes such a difference to studying the form.<br />Life would
be so much easier, if is was introduced more generally (or at least, for
Saturdays).<br />But alas, that is out of my hands !<br /><br />Ofcourse, what it
wouldn’t do, is make getting on any easier ! <br />As always, the markets are both
tight and fragile - which makes tipping a challenge. <br /><br />That said, I did
manage to find 3 horses who I felt were worth siding with at the generally
available odds. <br />Now we just need one - or two - of them, to do the decent
thing and come home in front !<br /><br />Here’s the rationale behind the tips -
along with my thoughts on the days other main races…<br /><br /><b><br /></b><b>Ascot
</b><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>2:45 </b><br /><br />This is too open a race, to
consider getting involved with…<br />Praeceps sets the standard on his 6th place
in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.<br />That’s obviously very strong
form - and he possibly went for home too early that day.<br />Running off the same
mark this afternoon, he sets the race standard (assuming he is fully recovered
from his exertions).<br />That said, on the book, there is an argument for saying
he shouldn’t beat Honorable.<br />There was just 2 lengths between the pair when
they met at Market Rasen in February - and Honorable is no less than 22lb better
off today !<br />It’s quite possible that Honorable is flattered by the run - but
a price of 20/1 certainly makes him interesting…<br />However, the issue with the
race, is that there are at least half a dozen others, who could easily be
involved at the finish.<br />The unexposed Scaramanga for Paul Nicholls, is the
most obvious one - though he has been well found in the market (3/1
fav).<br />Zafar and Al Kherb are similarly unexposed - but are both much bigger
prices (11/1 & 25/1) which makes them more appealing…<br />Legal History ran
really well at Newbury last Saturday, and must have a chance; as too must Irish
raider, Quantatmental.<br />So that’s at least 7 in the race, that I could give a
chance. <br />I think it’s time to move on…<br /><br /><b>3:20 </b><br /><br />By contrast
to the previous race, this one looks too straightforward !<br />I spent a fair bit
of time, yesterday evening, trying to work out what price I’d be prepared to tip
Favorito Bucks at.<br />I reckon 2/1 is the ‘right’ price for him (possibly 7/4) -
so I would have wanted 9/4, or ideally 5/2.<br />At 6/4 this morning, I quickly
realised that I’d wasted my time trying to work out a ‘value’ price !<br />The
issue is, he’s too obvious - and the opposition is too limited.<br />He’s actually
run really poorly on his 2 most recent starts - but they were both on unsuitably
soft ground.<br />He gets his ground this afternoon - and is back at the course
where he was a good winner of a similar race, in November.<br />He runs from a
mark just 2lb higher (because of his 2 poor subsequent runs) - and simply, is
going to take a lot of beating.<br />There’s a slight question mark regarding the
trip (it’s a bit shorter than ideal) - but he doesn’t lack pace and will
probably get away with it.<br />The other big thing is his favour, is that non of
his opponents look primed to win.<br />Vivas looks the most interesting of them -
but he is still 3lb above his last winning mark, so may need to come down the
handicap a little further…<br />This really does look Favorito Bucks race to lose
- but 6/4 allows no margin for error, so consequently, he can only be
watched.<br /><br /><b>3:55</b><br /><br />I think it is worth taking a chance on the
outsider, Eddiemaurice, in this…<br />He’s only run 5 times over fences in his
life - and whilst he has never won, he ran really well on his penultimate
outing, when runner up to Lillington, at Newbury.<br />That one won again next
time and is now rated 11lb higher, suggesting that Eddiemaurice faced quite a
task that day.<br />In truth, for much of the home straight, it looked as if
Eddiemaurice was going to win - but Lillington showed the greater resolution in
the closing stages.<br />There is a slight concern that Eddiemaruice is a bit of a
‘bridle’ horse - though he has won 4 times over hurdles - most recently in
December - so it’s not as if he can’t get his head in front.<br />He’s also won at
Ascot - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today - so he is potentially
well handicapped if everything does drop right.<br />That didn’t happen last time
at Kempton, when he unshipped Jamie Moore at the very first fence - but I
suspect Moore will be keen for atone for that, this afternoon…<br />Part of the
attraction of Eddiemaurice is that I can see issues with all 4 of his
rivals.<br />For a start, the top 3 horses all had their most recent outings at
Cheltenham - though non of them featured in their respective
contests.<br />Obviously, today will be a drop in class for them - but they will
have been primed for the Cheltenham run, so may not be at a peak today.<br />They
have also all got to concede at least 24lb to Eddiemaurice - and that’s a lot of
weight.<br />Dentley de Mee is the other runner in the field - and he doesn't
concede Eddiemaurice much weight.<br />However, his best form has been over
further than todays 2m1f trip - so he may lack the required pace (particularly
on quick ground).<br />The trip could also be an issue for Highway one o one, who
has shown improved form since stepping up to 2m4f.<br />Capeland has already had
quite a long season, suggesting that Caid du Lin could be the main danger to
Eddiemaurice.<br />I certainly respect his chances - but he was less than half the
price of Eddiemaurice, so I felt the value was with Eddie…<br /><br /><b>4:30
</b><br /><br />10 year olds tend to do well in these veterans races - and I think
the three 10 year olds in this contest, are the ones to focus on…<br />Junction
Fourteen is one of them - and he has a definite chance on his most recent run
behind Looking Well, in a similar contest at Doncaster.<br />My main issue with
him however, is that he’s at his best when able to dominate, and with Loose
Chips in todays field, that’s unlikely to happen…<br />Van Gogh du Granit is the
second 10 year old - and he ran well on debut for David Pipe last time, at
Taunton.<br />I would expect him to improve for that run - and I could have been
interested in him, apart from the fact that all his French form suggests that he
wants much softer ground than he is going to get today (ideally heavy).<br />Which
leaves Bigbadjohn…<br />He’s the third 10 year old in the race - and to be honest,
has a tick in pretty much every box !<br />He has his first run today, for over 4
months - but he has a good record when fresh.<br />His best form is on good ground
(which he will get) - and he’s won before at Ascot (over todays distance).<br />He
has a preference for small fields (10 should just about be OK) - and he’s not
badly handicapped.<br />He may not win - but I couldn’t ask for many more
positives from his profile !<br />Of the others, then Josses Hill could be
dangerous, because he has plenty of back class.<br />That said, his recent form
isn't inspiring - and it’s always dangerous looking at the back class of horses
who are clearly past their prime…<br /><br /><br /><b>Limerick
</b><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>2:20 </b><br /><br />This is not really a race I could
consider tipping in (due to the strength of the market - and the bookmaker
margins) - but if it had been possible, I would have been tempted by Star
Max.<br />Joseph O’Brien has a very strong hand of juvenile hurdlers and this one
had been progressing nicely, prior to his most recent run in the Fred Winter at
the Cheltenham festival.<br />He was quite well fancied for that race - sent off
8/1 second favourite, behind his stablemate Band of Outlaws - but he ran
disappointingly and never really featured.<br />You have to be prepared to forgive
him that run - but it often pays to forgive a horse one bad run.<br />Certainly,
based on his 3 previous runs over hurdles, he has a decent chance in this - and
the fact he is trained by Joseph O’Brien, is a definite bonus.<br />In truth, this
isn’t a race where it’s easy to get a handle on all of the runners.<br />Maze
Runner is an understandable favourite, having finished second to Band of Outlaws
on his most recent outing.<br />There’s a chance that run flatters him - but
trained by Willie Mullins, he was never going to be much of a price.<br />Plenty
of the others are tricky to assess - so it’s not a race where you could be
overly confident.<br />That said, Star Max looks to have a better chance than most
- and at around 8/1, doesn’t look a bad bet…<br /><br /><b>4:05</b><br /><br />I think
it is worth taking a chance on Robin de Foret in this.<br />He’s the apparent
second string of Willie Mullins - and has to give weight to all of his rivals -
but I still think he is worth siding with.<br />He steps up in trip to 3 miles
today - and on his preferred decent ground, I think that will unlock
improvement.<br />He’s already the highest rated horse in the race, on official
ratings - so if he is able to raise his game, then he will definitely take a bit
of beating.<br />Certainly his hurdles form suggests that todays test is precisely
what he needs.<br />He has won on heavy ground - but his best form is on a quick
surface; similarly, he’s won over 2 miles - but has better form over
further.<br />He disappointed on his most recent start, after a winter break - but
he was hampered early in that race, so the run can be ignored.<br />His 2 previous
runs in the autumn, were both very good: when runner up to Le Richebourg and
when falling at the third last behind Winter Escape.<br />Based on those 2 runs,
he is definitely the one to beat in todays race…<br />Obviously, the fact that he
has apparently been over-looked by Ruby Walsh, in favour of stablemate Burrows
Saint, is a concern.<br />However that one looks to need some cut in the ground -
so today conditions could be an issue for him. He’s also unproven over todays
trip - and therefore doesn’t hold much appeal at a price of 6/4.<br />Non of the
others have form to match that of Robin des Forets - and they are all relatively
exposed (so there is no reason to expect significant improvement).<br />In short,
Robin des Foret represents a fair bet, at the available odds.<br /><br /><br />Here’s
hoping for a great day ahead
!<br /><br />TVB.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Tips</b><br /><br />Asc 3:55 Eddiemaurice
1pt win 8/1 <br />Asc 4:30 Bigbadjohn 1pt win 6/1<br />Lim 4:05 Robin des Foret 1pt
win 7/1 (pre R4)<br /><br /><b>Mentions</b><br /><br />Asc 2:45 Honorable (S )<br />Asc
3:20 Favorito Bucks (P )<br />Lim 2:20 Star Max (C )</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-27862267398149903702019-03-30T05:57:00.000-07:002019-04-02T05:57:54.604-07:00Review of the day<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I kept the tips to a minimum today, which I think was
probably the right thing to do.<br /><br />Unfortunately non of the 3 tips that I
did issue, managed to win - but there was at least a bit of
interest.<br /><br />That was certainly the case for the first tip, Capard
King.<br />I thought he represented a bit of value at this mornings 10/1 - but
never did I imagine that he would get backed in to 7/2 favouritism !<br /><br />As I
said this morning, it was a competitive race - so there must have been some
serious confidence behind him, to cause such a price move.<br /><br />It was
therefore a little disappointing that he unseated his rider, not long after half
way.<br />It was too far out to have a view on whether he would have won - but he
certainly wasn’t beaten.<br /><br />Next time might tell us more - not that it will
be much consolation !<br /><br />The days other 2 tips both ran in the mares final
at Newbury - and both ran with credit.<br /><br />Off the Hook ran particularly well
- and between the second and third last, it briefly looked as though she might
win.<br />However, her run then began to falter - whilst Annie Mc found over-drive
- and the race was quickly over…<br /><br />As for the days Mentions…<br /><br />In the
opener at Newbury, my fears concerning Strong Pursuit appeared to be
well-founded. He led early but was quickly beaten, once passed.<br />It did very
much look as if he ‘bounced’ on the back of his big effort last time.<br /><br />In
the following race, Elysees ran a fair race to finish fourth, with Friend or
Foe, appearing not to stay the trip.<br /><br />Saint Leo also ran a fair race at
Kelso - but conditions had gone against him.<br />He remains one to keep on side -
given soft ground and a return to fences.<br /><br />Finally, if one did get away
today, it was in the long distance handicap hurdle.<br /><br />I liked Captain Drake
best - but felt he represented no value at 9/2.<br />I viewed Burrows Park as the
main danger - and if I’d realised how quick the ground was going to be riding, I
may well have taken a risk on him (because of Captain Drakes preference for soft
ground).<br />Ultimately, Burrows Park ran out a very easy winner - with Captain
Drake staying on late to claim second.<br />All a little irritating - but these
things happens…<br /><br />TVB.</span>
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The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-73753811145512245402019-03-30T05:56:00.000-07:002019-04-02T05:57:11.131-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 23rd <span style="font-family: Calibri;">There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Kelso and Bangor
in the UK - plus Thurles in Ireland.<br /><br />It’s a low key day, for a Saturday -
and there aren’t too many races, in which I could consider
tipping.<br /><br />However, most of the possible races, have drawn reasonable sized
fields and are quite competitive - so finding tips was at least
feasible.<br /><br />That said, it tends to be a good idea to tread carefully at
this time of year…<br /><br />Ordinarily, the ground is on the turn, with the better
weather resulting in quicker conditions - though that’s not really the case this
season, as the ground hasn’t ever gone that soft !<br /><br />The other potential
issue is that a few of the horses will be going over the top, after long
seasons.<br />It’s never easy to judge in advance, when a horse has had enough -
but it is something I’m always mindful of…<br /><br />Anyway, I’ve ended up with
just 3 small tips on the day. <br />I did consider a few others - but ultimately,
I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to tip them.<br /><br />Here’s the rationale
behind the tips that I did opt for - along with my thoughts on the days other
main races…<br /><br /><br /><b>Newbury</b><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>2:05 </b><br /><br />I
like Strong Pursuit best in this - but I don’t like his price ! <br />In fairness,
I can understand it: he ran really well at Sandown in February, on his return
from a long absence. <br />If he can build on that, he must go very close today -
however, there must also be a chance he’ll ‘bounce’ and I’m not sure that is
fully factored in to his price (3/1).<br />Furthermore, based purely on that run,
he has little in hand on Salmanazar.<br />That one finished just behind him at
Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today. <br />Strong Pursuit has the
greater potential - but I’m not sure it warrants him being a third of the
price…<br />In truth, this looks quite a trappy event.<br />I’m not overly keen on
the claims of second and third favourites; Classic Ben and Joe Farrel - but
there are a few of the outsiders, who have the latent ability to go very
close…<br />Luckofthedraw, Rock my Style and Kansas City Chief, are all capable of
big runs - though non of the 3 are guaranteed to run their race. <br />All are
worth monitoring in the betting however, in case they come in for sustained
support.<br />With them lurking however, it’s not a race that could be approached
with confidence.<br />That would make it hard to support Strong Pursuit at a short
price - even ignoring the concerns with him.<br />If he drifted to 5/1+, then he
would become interesting - but at the current prices, it’s a watching
race….<br /><br /><b>2:40</b><br /><br />There is far too much guesswork required to
consider getting involved with this particular contest…<br />Friend or Foe is a
short priced favourite, on the back of an impressive UK debut win at
Taunton.<br />Apparently, Paul Nicholls fancied him for the Fred Winter hurdle at
Cheltenham, believing the horse to be well handicapped.<br />If he was capable of
going close in that contest - then he will probably win today.<br />However, odds
of 5/2 in a 14 runner handicap, with plenty of unexposed horses in opposition,
holds no appeal…<br />Second favourite, Elysees, is also interesting.<br />He has
demonstrated a good level of form over hurdles - and has apparently been
targeted at this race.<br />He is more exposed than many of the runners - but his
second to Quel Destin at Doncaster in December, is the best form in the
race.<br />He should go close - and 6/1 is a fair price….<br />Outside of the 2
market leaders, then Legal History makes most appeal - but he too has been quite
well found in the market.<br /><br /><b>3:15 </b><br /><br />This is another open
looking handicap - but I think it is worth getting involved with a couple of the
lesser fancied runners…<br />Unlike the previous race, there are no stand out
contenders and Millarville and Off the Hook, both strike me as very
interesting.<br />The former makes her handicap debut, having performed well on
her 2 most recent runs in novice company: winning on the first occasion - and
then finishing third.<br />She is stepped up in trip today - and as a PTP winner
over 3 miles, that looks a move which is almost certain to bring about
improvement.<br />Richard Johnson is a significant jockey booking - and it looks
as if she has been targeted at this race…<br />I suspect that Off the Hook has
also been targeted at the race.<br />She is only the second ever runner at
Newbury, for Nick Alexander (his first ran yesterday).<br />Her form is strong:
She finished third to Queenofhearts in a listed race at Haydock, on her
penultimate outing - with Papagarna was just behind in fourth (she subsequently
won at Doncaster).<br />She then followed that up by taking a maiden event at Ayr
from Sam’s Adventure - and that one also won on his next outing.<br />Off the Hook
looks fairly handicapped on those pieces of form - and she should be well suited
by todays test. Plenty of the others can be given a chance - with Etamine du
Cochet looking the most dangerous of them. However, there is enough guesswork
required with her, to swerve at a best price of 8/1.<br /><br /><br /><b>Kelso
</b><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>2:25 </b><br /><br />I was quite tempted to take a risk
on Saint Leo in this…<br />He was a 2pt tip the last time he ran - and he looked
likely to win, until falling.<br />That was over fences - and he runs over hurdles
this afternoon.<br />In truth, that move could be read in a number of ways
(possibly a confidence rebuilding exercise) - however the fact that James
Reveley comes over from France to ride him, suggests there is positive
intent.<br />He’s got winning hurdles form in his native France - and I think he
is well handicapped - so he really is quite tempting …<br />However, there are a
couple of issues: firstly the ground at Kelso, is likely to be a bit quicker
than ideal for him; and secondly he faces at least 4 dangerous looking
opponents.<br />With the guesswork and uncertainty, my feeling is that a price of
6/1, is about right.<br />He can be backed at 7/1 in a few places - and I wouldn’t
put off anyone from getting involved with that.<br />Officially, though he is just
going to be a Mention. <br /><br /><b>3:00 </b><br /><br />Capard King looks interesting
in this, on his second run for Sandy Thompson.<br />Formerly trained by Jonjo
O’Neil, he made his debut for Thompson at Ayr a fortnight ago and travelled very
powerfully through the race, but didn’t quite see it out.<br />That was his first
run for 2 months - and I’m sure he will strip much fitter today.<br />There can be
little doubt that Capard King is a potentially well handicapped
horse.<br />Despite being 2lb out of the handicap this afternoon, he runs from a
mark of 120 - which is 19lb below his career high (and 15lb below his last
winning mark).<br />As a 10 year old, there is a chance that he’s not quite as
good as he once was: however, there is also the chance that the move to Sandy
Thompson will have rekindled his flame.<br />In theory, he faces some tough
opponents this afternoon.<br />However, favourite, Some Chaos has been raised 11lb
for his last time out win: whilst Blue Flight is up 14lb for his defeat of Black
Corton in a conditons event.<br />There must be a possibility that both of them
have been harshly dealt with by the handicapper…<br />In fairness, neither Rons
Dream nor Le Reve can be easily dismissed - so it’s not a race to be going
over-board on.<br />That said, Capard King has a fair chance on recent form - and
a very good chance on old form - so is worthy of a small interest.
<br /><br /><b>3:35</b><br /><br />I did consider getting involved with Captain Drake in
this - but I think he’s a bit too short in the betting at 9/2…<br />With Worthy
Farm at 3/1 - and a few credible opponents, I hoped that 6/1 might be obtainable
- but that’s not the case.<br />In terms of the case for him: then it revolves
around his defeat of subsequent winner, Liosduin Bhearna, in a novice event at
Uttoxeter: and his subsequent win on handicap debut at Southwell.<br />The bare
form of his most recent win, is nothing to get excited about. In fact, he has
nothing in hand of Tomkevi, based purely on that run.<br />However, I get the
feeling that he’s a horse with plenty of improvement in him - and I suspect he
will relish todays step up in trip to 3m2f.<br />Certainly, I would take a risk on
him at a price - but that price would need to be bigger than 9/2…<br />In truth,
plenty of his opponents can be given a chance (which is another reason for
wanting a price) - with Burrows Park, the one that interests me most.<br />I don’t
particularly like the fact he ran at Cheltenham just 8 days ago - bit he did run
well and if anyone can get them back performing after a tough race, it is
Venetia.<br />He could be worth a small risk at 9/1 - but it’s hard to tip one
horse when you fancy another one more !<br />On balance, I felt it best to make it
a watching race…<br /><br /><br />Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!<br /><br />TVB.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Tips</b><br /><br /><br />Newb 3:15 Milarville
0.5pt win 12/1<br />Newb 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 14/1<br />Kels 3:00 Capard King
0.5pt win 10/1<br /><br /><b>Mentions</b><br /><br />Newb 2:05 Strong Pursuit (P
)<br />Newb 2:40 Elysees (O )<br />Kels 2:25 Saint Leo (O )<br />Kels 3:35 Captain
Drake (P )</span>
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The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-83729036475067400552019-03-18T13:32:00.001-07:002019-03-18T13:32:47.335-07:00Review of the dayThere was no joy with todays tips - and not a great deal to say about them either !<br />
<br />
The most notable thing, was that come the off, all 3 had drifted out (on BF) to roughly their prices of last night (which was about 50% higher than this mornings advised prices).<br />
<br />
I guess it could have been market corrections (and I could maybe believe that for Back to the Thatch) - but generally, that tends not to be a good thing…<br />
<br />
Certainly, it didn’t see to be a good thing for Tara Flow.<br />
I was pretty keen on her - but the market drift - coupled with an apparent reticence to get involved with the race - suggested from a very early stage, that she wasn't going to be involved at the finish.<br />
<br />
She never moved out of the last couple of places - and you could only guess, at what the issue was…<br />
<br />
The race was won by De Rasher Counter - but he was never really a price where I could have considered him as a saver…<br />
<br />
Next it was Forecast.<br />
Again, I thought he had a chance (certainly, more of a chance than his odds implied) - and whilst he moved nicely through the race to the home turn, he was quickly beaten once pressure was applied.<br />
<br />
The race was won in impressive fashion, by Poker Play - but his victory wasn’t easy to predict.<br />
The novices, Bold Plan and Acey Milan, followed him home (which was a little more predicable).<br />
<br />
Back to the Thatch was the final tip on the day - and he put up a fair effort.<br />
<br />
He took up the running, with a circuit to go - and still appeared to have a chance, turning for home.<br />
However, 4m2f in heavy ground, takes some getting - and he tired quickly up the straight.<br />
<br />
He took a heavy fall at the final fence - but thankfully, got back up (eventually !).<br />
<br />
The race was won by Potters Corner, who was another tough one to find (particularly considering he had fallen on his 2 most recent runs).<br />
He just got the better of Ms Parfois, who I had tipped ante-post for the Welsh National - but didn’t make the race.<br />
I have to admit that I was slightly relieved that she didn’t win today, as it would have left me wondering what might have been….<br />
<br />
As for the Mentions at Kempton:<br />
Then Eddiemaurice got no further than the first fence.<br />
To be honest, I don’t think the race was run in a way that would have suited him - but it would have been nice to see for sure !<br />
Honest Vic also didn’t make it round - as he ploughed through the wings of the second last, in spectacular style !<br />
He had hinted at a touch of temperament in the past - but had never done anything quite so dramatic !<br />
His departure appeared to leave the way open for My Way - but he was run out of things close home, by Wicked Willy.<br />
<br />
All in all, a day best forgotten…<br />
<br />
TVB.The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-7598677900980822572019-03-18T13:30:00.005-07:002019-03-18T13:37:04.283-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 16th<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">There are no less than 6 NH meetings today: at Uttoxeter,
Kempton, Newcastle, Fontwell, Limerick and Down Royal.<br /><br />And I expected
things to be quiet, after Cheltenham !<br /><br />In fairness, most of the meetings
are low key, with only Uttoxeter and Kempton staging races which could be
described as ‘big’.<br /><br />In truth, even the Kempton card is a little
disappointing.<br />It puts on a couple of ‘consolation‘ races for horses that
missed out on running at Cheltenham.<br />The meeting appeared set to take off, a
couple of seasons back - but the fields for todays 2 feature races, aren’t
great…<br /><br />As a consequence, I’ve had to go to Uttoxeter for the
tips.<br />I’ve managed to find 3 of them there - and I was quite happy with them,
yesterday evening.<br /><br />However, the prices were eroded overnight - and the
margins aren’t quite as big this morning !<br />I still think they are worth
backing - and who knows, there’s always the chance that the prices will drift
back out a little, come to off…<br /><br />Anyway, here is the rationale behind them
- along with my thoughts on the big races which are taking place
today…<br /><br /><br /><b>Uttoxeter</b><b><br /></b><b><br /></b><b>2:25 </b><br /><br />I
quite like Tara Flow in this…<br />I was very taken by her effort, last time out
at Ffos Las, when she finished second to Molly Carew.<br />The winner appeared to
be a very well handicapped horse, so Tara Flow probably lost little in
defeat.<br />In fact, I’m a bit surprised that Tara Flows mark remained unchanged
following the run, as Molly Carew was raised by 10lb (accepting that she did win
by 10 lengths).<br />Having won over hurdles on heavy (when she defeated the very
useful, The Organist), todays under-foot conditions, will hold no fear for Tara
Flow.<br />She is unproven over todays trip - but there is no reason to think she
won’t be able to cope with it - and there’s even a chance she will improve for
the step up !<br />Venetia has been in very good form, for a number of weeks. She
didn’t manage to get a winner at Cheltenham, but even there, most of her horses
ran well (most notable, Aso).<br />Tara Flow is her only runner today - and
Charlie Deutch's only ride. <br />Hopefully they can make it count !<br />Top
weight, De Rasher Counter, looks like the main danger.<br />He’s been in good form
lately - and still remains fairly handicapped.<br />However, lugging 11st12lb
round in heavy ground, won’t be easy for him…<br /><br /><b>3:00 </b><br /><br />I think
it is worth taking a risk on Forecast in this.<br />He caught my eye on his most
recent run, at Cheltenham, on New Years day.<br />I tipped Aux Ptit Soins in that
race, but was very aware of how well Forecast was travelling, coming down the
hill.<br />Ultimately, Aux Ptit Soins kicked away in the home straight - but that
may in part have been because Forecast didn’t stay the 3 mile trip.<br />Certainly
his best form is over todays trip of 2m4f - including a third place behind
Paisley Park, at Aintree in October; and a win over Notre Ami in the heavy at
Lingfield, the following month.<br />All of those runs, give him a decent chance
this afternoon…<br />The market for todays race, is headed by a couple of
unexposed horses, in the shape of Acey Milan and Bold Plan.<br />Both are making
their handicaps debuts - and could certainly better than their opening
marks.<br />If they are, then they could prove too good for Fortune - but I think
that’s a risk worth taking…<br />Certainly, I think he has as good a chance as any
of the more exposed horses - particularly as he is proven under todays
conditions.<br /><br /><b>3:35</b><br /><br />I’m quite keen on Back to the Thatch in
this.<br />He was quite well fancied for the corresponding race, 12 months ago
(sent off at 15/2), but ran disappointingly and was pulled up.<br />However, he
arrived that day, on the back over a heavy fall in the Eider chase - and there
must be a chance that affected his performance… <br />He didn’t run again last
season, but following a low key seasonal debut at Bangor, he ran well in the
Welsh National trial at Chepstow.<br />That suggested he was back in his groove -
and as a consequence, he was sent off at just 2/1 for a decent handicap chase at
Haydock, at the end of the year.<br />He ran really well in that race, but just
couldn’t managed to concede 8lb to the rejuvenated, Chef D’ouvre.<br />I don’t
think that was any shame in that, as the winner subsequently went on to run a
massive race behind Robinsfirth, at the same course.<br />As a consequence, Chef
D’ouvre has to re-oppose Back to the Thatch on 9lb worse terms today for 3
lengths, and that should see the form reversed…<br />I also like the fact that
Back to the Thatch hasn’t run since then.<br />He was again being targeted at the
Eider - but connections gave that race a miss, owing to the quick
ground.<br />Quick ground won’t be a problem today ! - and with Dickie in the
saddle, I expect him to go very close indeed…<br />I was hoping to put up
Milansbar as a saver - because I think he is potentially very
dangerous.<br />However, he was tipped up in a host of places, last night - and a
price of 8/1 this morning, is too short about a 12 year old in a 22 runner
race.<br />I suspect he will drift (because he has been over-backed) - and if you
can get double figures on him, then he is worth a small saver.<br />Officially
speaking however, all of the eggs are in the Back to the Thatch basket
!<br /><br /><b><br /></b><b>Kempton </b><br /><br /><b>2:05</b> <br /><br />I’m moderately
tempted to take a risk on Eddiemaurice in this.<br />He should arguably have won
last time out - and Kempton is very much his track (he prefers the quick ground,
which Kempton tends to produce).<br />The issue is, he’s a ‘traveller’ rather than
a ‘finisher’ - and he would almost certainly be better suited by a bigger field
(so he could be smuggled in to the race and delivered late).<br />That said,
favourite, Timoteo, does look vulnerable…<br />He was most impressive when wining
on his chasing debut at Stratford on Monday - but that was just 5 days ago - so
there is a definite risk as to whether he will have fully recovered.<br />The only
other runner worthy of consideration, appears to be Envoye Special - and he’s a
hard one to get a handle on.<br />He’s only run twice in the UK - but has shown
promise on both occasions.<br />He looks as if he could be one for next season -
though if he’s strong in the market today, then I would maybe take the hint
!<br /><br /><b>2:40 </b><br /><br />If you could be sure that Honest Vic would run to
the same level of form he showed on his most recent outing, he would be a good
bet in this.<br />Last time out, he finished runner up at Ascot, splitting Brio
Conte and Ballyandy - with Malaya just behind in fourth place.<br />The first 2
named, finished third and fourth in Wednesday Coral cup; whilst Malaya
subsequently won the Imperial cup.<br />To say the form is rock solid, is an
under-statement !<br />However, Honest Vic showed big improvement that day - and
it coincided with the fitting of a first time visor.<br />The visor is retained
today - but whether it will have the same impact, is anybodys
guess…<br />Certainly, if you look at Honest Vics form, aside from his last run,
then it’s hard to make a case for him…<br />If he doesn’t perform to the Ascot
level of form, then My Way looks the one most likely to take advantage, on his
handicap debut.<br />He’s clearly well thought of (he made his UK debut in a grade
2 event) - and an opening mark of 121, looks very
workable…<br /><br /><b>3:15</b><br /><br />This race looks a complete minefield - and
is definitely one best swerved from a betting perspective.<br />The biggest issue
is the presence of Onefortheroadtom. <br />He’s been running eye catchingly in
some much better races - whilst ultimately getting beaten a long way.<br />The
feeling is that connections are working on his handicap mark - and the official
assessor is certainly playing ball, as his mark has come down from 137 to
122.<br />However, we can only guess that’s the case - which makes supporting him
at short odds, an impossible thing to do.<br />He could easily bolt in this
afternoon - or he could just as easily finish out the back…<br />Even ignoring him
this is not any easy race to asses.<br />Brother Ted is potentially well
handicapped - and back at his favourite course - but he’s only run once in the
past 2 years, so clearly comes with risks.<br />Kansas City Chief is another
potentially dangerous one. He is dropping down the handicap and will doubtless
come good at some point (I don’t think it will be today - but I couldn’t be
totally sure).<br />Peacocks Secret is quite interesting, over from Ireland; whist
El Terremento is probably the default winner, if non of the ‘plots’ are being
timed for today ! <br />In summary, it has to be a watching race - hopefully one
which will reveal a few more clues on future intentions, for some of the runners
!<br /><br /><br />Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!<br /><br />TVB.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b>Tips</b><br /><br />Uttx 2:25 Tara Flow 1pt
win 8/1<br />Uttx 3:00 Forecast 0.5pt win 16/1<br />Uttx 3:35 Back to the Thatch 1pt
win 10/1<br /><br /><b>Mentions</b><br /><br />Kemp 2:05 Eddiemaurice (C )<br />Kemp 2:40
Honest Vic (C )</span>
</span><br />
<div id="DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2">
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The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-47053378783020830032019-03-18T13:30:00.001-07:002019-03-18T13:30:03.847-07:00Review of the day<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Victory for Early Doors in the final race, meant that the day
finished almost level - and ensured that Cheltenham week wasn’t a complete
disaster…<br /><br />Objectively, the damage was done yesterday: but a better jump
from Road to Respect at the third last - or a stumble from Paisley Park at the
last, and things would have been very different.<br />They are fines
lines…<br /><br />And that was the case again today, when in addition to Early
Doors, both Eclair du Beaufeur and Shantou Flyer, could easily have come home in
front - granted a bit of luck.<br />That said, there were plenty of other runners
who could claim the same - such is the nature of the Cheltenham
festival…<br /><br />In terms of specifics, then the day got off to the worse
possible start, when Sir Erec broke his leg in the opener.<br />It’s always a
horrible thing to see - even accepting that it comes with the
territory…<br /><br />The race was won Pentland Hills, who was having just his
second run over hurdles.<br />Whether he would have won, if fate hadn’t snarled at
Sir Erec, is anyones guess - though in fairness, he did look a worthy winner of
the race. <br /><br />Eclair de Beaufeur and Mr Adjudicator, were the first tips to
run on the day: and whilst the latter never really featured, the former could
arguably have won.<br /><br />Certainly the in-running bettors believed that to be
the case, as he went odds on, when shooting clear off the home turn.<br />However
Jack Kennedy had mis-timed his effort - and the horse was already beaten, when
it ejected him at the last.<br /><br />It was disappointing - but every jockey makes
the occasional mistake, and generally Kennedy is one of the best
around.<br /><br />Next it was the Albert Bartlett hurdle - and I felt it was a race
in which there might be a shock.<br />And I was right, as 50/1 shot (BSP 140 !),
Minella Indo, was an impressive winner.<br /><br />If I’m honest, he’s not one I
would have picked, even given a few stabs at the race - so maybe it was a bullet
dodged…<br /><br />I could have picked Al Boum Photo, given a few shots at the Gold
Cup.<br /><br />I was just put off by his run behind Presenting Percy in last years
RSA - but he completely reversed the form this afternoon.<br /><br />Shattered Love
ran a big race, but was never quite close enough - and possibly didn’t quite get
home. <br />She had been narrowly beaten by Al Boum Photo last year, and I suspect
she will be capable of winning a grade 1 chase herself, given the right
conditions….<br /><br />Next it was the Foxhunters - and possibly the most
disappointing result of the week !<br /><br />I thought I had found one, when I
picked up on Shantou Flyer a few weeks back - and he went very close to proving
me right.<br />However, like Sam Spinner yesterday, there was one just a bit too
good for him on the day.<br /><br />He wasn’t unlucky, so I can have no real
complaints - but it would have been very nice, if he could have run just that
little bit faster !<br /><br />The penultimate race of the day was the Grand Annual
- and that proved disappointing…<br /><br />I felt I had put us in a good position
with Magic Saint and Le Prezein - and I was still feeling that way, turning
in.<br />Both horses looked to be going strongly - but then, in just a few
strides, both were beaten !<br /><br />It was odd to watch - and if the Nicholls
horses hadn't been running so well all week, you might have thought something
was ailing them…<br /><br />The race was won in spectacular style by the 12 year
old, Croco Bay.<br />He did have previous in the race - but had only run once in
the past 12 months - and hadn’t been out since last summer.<br /><br />His SP of
66/1 seemed a little tight, with his BSP of 180, looking far nearer the mark
!<br />A virtually impossible one to pick, I think…<br /><br />And so to the final
race.<br /><br />I felt this morning, that despite the numbers, it was likely to
boil down to a match between Early Doors and Dallas de Pictons - and that's
exactly what happened.<br /><br />Even after the last, it was difficult to figure
out which one was going to come out on top.<br />But thankfully, after a few near
misses, Early Doors got the better of their dual - and rescued the
day.<br /><br />In the circumstance, I feel it was the least we
deserved….<br /><br /><br />And so endeth another festival.<br />As a spectacle is was
breathtaking - as a punting medium, I found it very hard…<br /><br />I need to take
stock of how I handle things.<br />I’ve got an approach which works well, week in,
week out, throughout the rest of the season - but I’m not convinced it works for
Cheltenham.<br /><br />I think I’ll need to change things a little next season - so
I’ll be giving some thought to exactly what and how.<br /><br />That can all wait
though - I now need to start studying for Uttoxeter and Kempton
tomorrow.<br /><br />There really is no rest for the wicked
:)<br /><br />TVB.</span>The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-37066726313211002242019-03-18T13:29:00.000-07:002019-03-18T13:36:35.437-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 15th (Cheltenham - Day 4)Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival…<br />
<br />
It’s been a tough week so far - but I kind of expected that.<br />
<br />
It’s getting harder and harder to find decent bets at Cheltenham.<br />
<br />
Yesterday, there were 6 very well backed winners - and one complete rag.<br />
As a ‘value bettor’, that’s not a set of results that I would want…<br />
<br />
I felt that all of the well backed winners, had been put in plenty short enough in the morning - yet they were all backed in to even shorter.<br />
<br />
Sire du Berlais was a classic example: 11/2 in the morning - became 4/1 at the off.<br />
I thought it might happen - but there is no way I could have got involved with the horse, using conventional measures of price and value.<br />
<br />
However, they seem to count for little at Cheltenham - which is concerning…<br />
<br />
In truth, this isn't the first year this has happened - and I do need to think long and hard about how I tackle future Cheltenhams.<br />
<br />
The TVB season is 5 months long - and I don’t want the results skewed by 4 crazy days betting !<br />
<br />
Anyway, enough of the defeatest talk - and on to finding some winners !<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, today looks tough (even by this weeks standards !).<br />
<br />
I’ve managed to find a few tips - though I’ve adopted a slightly different approach.<br />
I’ve gone for a couple in each of the days 3 handicaps - and have tipped what I consider the most likely winner, in addition to a ‘value’ bet…<br />
<br />
There are also a couple of ante-post positions, from earlier in the season.<br />
<br />
Hopefully at least one of the tips will come home in front, and rescue the week !<br />
<br />
Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other races…<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Cheltenham</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>1:30</b><br />
<br />
Sir Erec is ridiculously short for this, based on his form over hurdles - but I suspect he will win.<br />
Rated 105 on the flat (which is group class), he is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.<br />
He won narrowly on his debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, before following up in the Grade 1 Spring juvenile at the Dublin festival, in February.<br />
He was impressive on the latter occasion - but had the run of the race from the front - and his 6 length winning margin, probably flatters him.<br />
Certainly, on his debut win, he has little in hand of Tiger Tap Tap.<br />
He beat that one by just a neck, so he must be theoretical value, at 10/1…<br />
However, Sir Erec is trained by Joseph O’Brien and he has an extremely strong hand of juvenile hurdlers.<br />
His Fakir D’oudaries was sent off joint favourite for the Supreme on Tuesday, having been re-routed from this race, to avoid clashing with Sir Erec.<br />
He also trained Band of Outlaws, who won the Fred Winter on Wednesday, having been backed as if defeat was out the question (which it was !).<br />
Sir Erec is apparently considered in a different league to those two - and as a consequence, he is going to be very hard to beat today.<br />
In truth, even if I felt it was worth the risk to take him on, I don’t know what I would oppose him with.<br />
Whilst half cases can be made for a few of his opponents, non of them have stand out credentials.<br />
For those who fancy a real punt, then Hannon EW, is quite interesting.<br />
However, for those who just want to back a winner, Sir Erec is almost certainly the way to go…<br />
<br />
<b>2:10</b><br />
<br />
The first of the days big handicaps - and arguably the most open of the 3.<br />
I reckon that a chance can be given to at least half the runners - though I’m sure the market will have polarised its opinion, come the off !<br />
I’ve decided to take 2 Irish trained runners against the field: one trained by Willie Mullins and the other by Gordon Elliott - so there is nothing wrong with their credentials !<br />
Both trainers saddle 3 in the race, so the first challenge, is working out their best chance.<br />
For Mullins, I hope it is Mr Adjudicator, who is ridden by Paul Townend (Ruby is on the favourite, Whiskey Sour).<br />
Mr Adjudicator finished second in last seasons Triumph hurdle, beaten a couple of lengths by Farclas.<br />
He followed up that run, by occupying the same position in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown festival.<br />
He’s only run once this season - when once again finishing second, this time at Naas.<br />
He was actually little flattered by the result that day, as Saldier (the horse who beat him at Punchestown), would have finished ahead of him but for falling at the last.<br />
That said, the winner of the race was Espoir Dallen - and following his romp in the Champion on Tuesday, an 11 length defeat, doesn’t look too bad !<br />
In truth, it’s hard to get a proper handle on Mr Adjudicator.<br />
However, there is a chance that he is top class - and even off a mark of 149, I think he is worth a risk.<br />
Eclair de Beaufeur is the other one I want on side.<br />
He’s ridden by Jack Kennedy - and does appear to be the main hope for Gordon Elliott.<br />
He’s a relatively inexperienced novice, who seems to be progressing - and who ran really well on his handicap debut, last time out.<br />
That was in a very valuable handicap at the Dublin festival - and his fourth placing was an excellent effort, considering his inexperience.<br />
If he can build on that run, then I think he has every chance, this afternoon..,.<br />
Of the others, then a case could be made for plenty - though nothing more compelling than the cases for Mr Adjudicator and Eclair de Beaufeur.<br />
<br />
<b>2:50</b><br />
<br />
Whilst this may not be a handicap, it’s as tricky to unravel as any handicap that’s been run all week.<br />
Historically, it’s a race which has been won by a ‘tough’ horse, so the inclination is to oppose those with limited experience (which includes a few of the market leaders).<br />
However, even applying that criteria, leaves far more who have a chance, than I feel comfortable with…<br />
My original intention was to tip Derrinross.<br />
However, the form of his defeats of Sams Profile and Defi Bleu, doesn’t look as strong as I would like.<br />
He’s definitely got possibilities - but his odds of 10/1, look about right…<br />
Of the market leaders, then Lisnagar Oscar and Commander of Fleet are the 2 of most interest - but I really couldn’t back anything at single figures, in this race.<br />
Plenty of the outsiders can be given half chances, including Salsaretta, Nadaitak and First Approach - but it would be tough to choose just one of them to side with, and I don’t really want to be taking 3 speculative shots at the race (at a minimum !).<br />
On balance, I feel it’s a race that can only be watched.<br />
I honestly think that a case could be made for at least 15 of the runners - and whilst there is almost certainly some theoretical value in the race, you’ll need a fair bit of luck in order to land on the winner…<br />
<br />
<b>3:30</b><br />
<br />
The 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup looks only marginally easier to solve than the race that precedes it !<br />
16 runners - of which at least half can be given a chance.<br />
As is so often the case in these races, rhythm and jumping are likely to be the deciding factors - but figuring those out in advance, is virtually impossible.<br />
Presenting Percy and Clan des Obeux head the market - and I think that is right.<br />
They are both young progressive chasers, who should be well suited to todays test.<br />
I certainly prefer them to last seasons winner, Native River.<br />
Everything fell right for him last season - and I’ll be surprised if that happens again today.<br />
I could see him getting placed - but I can’t see him winning…<br />
Kemboy, Belshill, Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only, all represent Willie Mullins and they have a chance of breaking his duck in the race.<br />
That said, I’m not convinced that any of them are quite up to the level required to win a Gold Cup.<br />
Of the 4, I just prefer the chances of Al Boum Photo - though he would be better on softer ground and over a slightly shorter trip.<br />
Might Bite and Thistlecrack have both been top class horses - but it’s rare for a Gold Cup to be won by a horse of their ages (10 & 11) - particularly when the field is as strong as todays.<br />
And then there is Shattered Love…<br />
I tipped her ante post, just before she ran in the Savill chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.<br />
She finished last in the race (not ideal !) - but she hated the ground.<br />
She’s not run since - and has under gone a wind op in the interim.<br />
On her form from last season, she can be given a chance.<br />
She was most impressive when winning the JLT; and then ran Al Boum Photo close, when probably not quite at her peak.<br />
I’m absolutely sure that Gordon Elliott will have her spot on for today - and whilst she needs to find about 10lb of improvement to have a chance of winning, that’s not impossible.<br />
If you’ve not yet backed her, then at 25/1 or better, she is worth a small play (maybe EW).<br />
As for the most likely winner: then I would suggest Clan des Obeaux - but in such a strong race, he can’t be a bet, at just 9/2…<br />
<br />
<b>4:10</b><br />
<br />
Whilst 24 might go to post for this, I suspect that only half a dozen of them, will actually count…<br />
Unsurprisingly, those half dozen all sit at the head of the betting - and thankfully, they include Shantou Flyer.<br />
I put him up as an ante-post tip last month - and he was a risky one, to say the least !<br />
In order to just get a run in todays race, he first needed to finish in the top 2 in a couple of hunter chases - and the poor weather and equine flu, nearly managed to prevent him from achieving that.<br />
However, he somehow did it: by first wining at Kelso - and then following up at Fontwell, 10 days later…<br />
In truth, neither victory was achieved as I would have liked: he was very laboured at Kelso - and then seemed to endure a particularly hard race at Fontwell.<br />
Still, he’s made it here - and had almost 3 weeks to recover from his most recent run.<br />
Assuming that race didn’t bottom him, then I doubt he’ll want for fitness !<br />
And in her does arrive in peak form, then I really think he will take a bit of beating.<br />
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race - behind Ucello Conti - but unlike that one, Shantou Flyer is still at his peak (9 years old) and has very strong festival form.<br />
It’s also very interesting that he gets a change of head gear today.<br />
I suspect the horse is a bit of a thinker. He wore cheek pieces for the first time, when second at the course on new Years day last year; and then sported a first time visor when runner up in last years Ultima.<br />
Hopefully the blinkers which have been enlisted today, will encourage him to put his best foot forward.<br />
The dangers are obvious: in addition to Ucelle Conti, they are Stand up and Fight, Hazel Hill, Caid du Berlais and Road to Rome.<br />
All 5 can be given a chance and I wouldn’t want to pick between them.<br />
That said, if Shantou Flyer runs as well as he can, then I think he will be very hard to beat…<br />
<br />
<b>4:50</b><br />
<br />
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race - and I think it is worth siding with a couple of his runners, to keep that going…<br />
Le Prezien won the race for him last season and it’s hard to think that he won’t go very close again today, off a mark just 1lb higher.<br />
This kind of race is always going to suit Le Prezien, because it tends to be run at a million miles an hour.<br />
If Barry Geraghty can get him settled and jumping out the back, then there is a good chance he will be able to pick off his rivals up the home straight.<br />
That’s what happened 12 months ago - and there is a distinct possibility that it will happen again this afternoon.<br />
The caveats are that his jumping will need to hold up - and the ground will need to be soft-ish.<br />
Assuming that is the case, then I think he could take a bit of stopping.<br />
That said, there is a chance that his stablemate, Magic Star, will prove too well handicapped for him to handle…<br />
He was an eye catcher on his UK debut - and whilst he seemed to disappoint next time, subsequent events showed that his run at Ascot, behind Hell’s Kitchen and Janika, was much better than it looked at the time.<br />
On his only subsequent run, he hacked up at Wincanton, having been backed at if defeat was out of the question.<br />
He’s been raised 7lb for that win - but he’s a young progressive horse - and that may not stop him…<br />
Of the others, then Not Another Muddle and Minds Eye look the biggest dangers - but like Magic Star, they have been well found in the market - and I prefer his chances.<br />
Of the outsiders, then Mr Medic is the one that interest me most, stepping back in trip.<br />
However, he needs decent ground to be at his best…<br />
<br />
<b>5:30</b><br />
<br />
The final race of the 2019 festival - and whilst 24 runners and conditional jockeys suggest anything could happen, I suspect that the outcome could be quite predictable…<br />
Dallas des Pictons and Early Doors dominate the market - and I won’t be overly surprised if they dominate the race.<br />
Both have very strong credentials: with the former looking a horse on a serious upward curve: and the latter appearing to have been targeted at this race, having finished third in the corresponding contest 12 months ago.<br />
I could have sided with either - but at 3/1 Dalla des Pictons and 11/2 Early Doors, the market effectively made the decision for me.<br />
It strikes me as very significant that Jonjo O’Neill Jnr rides Early Doors, when Big Time Dancer is also in the race.<br />
That horse gave him the biggest win of his career, so far, when wining the Lanzarote last time at Kempton.<br />
Getting off him can’t have been an easy thing to do - and just adds more weight to the argument that Early Doors has been targeted at the race.<br />
There is little that can be taken from his 3 runs, since last seasons festival - as in 2 of them, he has finished miles behind Apples Jade.<br />
However, I suspect those outings were simply about keeping him ticking over - with today the day that really counts…<br />
Whilst I do expect the race to be dominated by the 2 market leaders, as we’ve seen a couple of times this week, they can some times blow out.<br />
In case that happens, then I think it is worth also having Coolanley on side, as he looks massively over-priced…<br />
He won a grade 2 over today course in November - and whilst he has disappointed in his 2 subsequent races, if Fergal O’Brien can get him back to peak form today, he would have a real chance.<br />
Certainly, his mark of 140 looks feasible - and booking of Conor Brace, is a definite positive.<br />
At 33/1, he is just too tempting to resist..!<br />
<br />
<br />
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Tips</b><br />
<br />
Chel 2:10 Mr Adjudicator 0.5pt win 12/1<br />
Chel 2:10 Eclair de Beaufeu 0.5pt win 12/1<br />
Chel 3:30 Shattered Love 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)<br />
Chel 4:10 Shantou Flyer 0.5pt win 14/1 (ante-post)<br />
Chel 4:50 Magic Saint 0.5pt win 5/1<br />
Chel 4:50 Le Prezien 0.5pt win 11/1<br />
Chel 5:30 Early Doors 0.5pt win 11/2<br />
Chel 5:30 Coolanley 0.5pt win 33/1<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Mentions</b><br />
<br />
Chel 1:30 Hannon EW<br />
Chel 2:50 Derrinross (O )<br />
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The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-85020483566175196672019-03-18T13:28:00.000-07:002019-03-18T13:28:04.067-07:00Review of the dayThere was no joy again for todays tips - which was disappointing, considering that most of them ran really well.<br />
<br />
However, at Cheltenham, running well is rarely good enough - you need to put in a flawless round, and non of them quite managed to do that…<br />
<br />
First up it was Vinndication.<br />
I knew he would have his work cut out to reverse Sandown form with Defi de Seuil and Lostintranslation - but felt there was a chance that he could do just that.<br />
<br />
However, an early mistake put him on the back foot - and with his 2 main opponents barely making a mistake between them, he was never able to mount a meaningful challenge.<br />
<br />
He ran well, and was just nosed out of fourth place - which was probably a fair reflection of his ability…<br />
<br />
It was a similar story with Road to Respect.<br />
He was the main tip on the day - and I really thought he would run well.<br />
And he did just that, stalking the leader throughout and seemingly travelling nicely.<br />
<br />
However, he made a crucial mistake at the third last, just as he was about to mount his challenge - and he couldn't recover from that.<br />
Ultimately, he finished third - beaten 3 lengths, by a horse who got the run of the race and jumped superbly…<br />
<br />
I tipped 2 in the Stayers hurdle - and again, they both ran well.<br />
<br />
In fact, Sam Spinner ran exceptionally well - and just for a moment, approaching the last, it looked as if he might pull off a huge shock.<br />
However, Paisley Park proved to be as good as his reputation, and he collared Sam Spinner on the run to the last - and then stayed on up the hill.<br />
<br />
It reminded me of Lil Rockerfeller a couple of years back - it’s fair to say that the Stayers hurdle is not my favourite race at the Festival !<br />
<br />
Next it was the Plate - and again, Bouvreuil ran a great race - but ended up with nothing to show for it.<br />
<br />
He was baulked by an early faller - but travelled really powerfully until the home turn.<br />
The problem for him, was that the 4 market leaders were all in front of him - and all travelling just as well.<br />
<br />
And unfortunately, non of them faltered up the hill - and try as Richie McLernon might, he couldn’t quite get Bouvreuil into the frame.<br />
It was yet another big effort - but again, that counted for nothing…<br />
<br />
The final tips on the day ran in the Mares novice hurdle.<br />
<br />
I was keen to take on favourite Epatante - and I was right to do so,.<br />
I even think I picked a couple of fair ones to oppose her with, as both Elusive Belle and Indefatigable, ran well.<br />
However, once again, neither ran quite well enough - and in a finish of rank outsiders, Indefatigable did best of the pair, with an honourable fifth placing.<br />
<br />
As for the Mentions:<br />
Then somehow, Barry Geraghty managed to get Sire du Berlais home in front in the Pertemps final.<br />
He was backed in to 4/1 at the off - but I’ve no idea how he managed to win.<br />
Somehow, the very well backed ones just seem to…<br />
<br />
Captain Chaos also ran really well in the Fulke Walwyn.<br />
But having led to the home turn, his stamina gave out up the straight (as I feared it might)…<br />
<br />
Just one day left then, to right the weeks wrongs.<br />
<br />
No pressure :)<br />
<br />
TVB.The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-5688801195333631472019-03-18T13:26:00.002-07:002019-03-18T13:26:55.980-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 14th (Cheltenham - Day 3)Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival…<br />
<br />
The action will switch to the new course this afternoon, so all of the races will be run on fresh ground.<br />
<br />
It looked to be riding just on the soft side yesterday - and it shouldn’t be any worse today.<br />
<br />
Looking at yesterdays results, with the final 4 races all won by short priced favourites, I was always going to struggle,<br />
<br />
My hopes are higher for today.<br />
Historically, Thursdays races tend to have the best betting shape.<br />
<br />
Ofcourse, even if opportunities exist, then they still need to be converted - and for that to happen, we’ll need a bit of luck.<br />
Fingers crossed !<br />
<br />
I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day (including an ante-post one).<br />
I could easily have issued a few more - but I’ve declined to take on 2 of the big field handicaps.<br />
<br />
I’ve still got views on them, however - in addition to the rationale behind the days tips…<br />
<br />
<br />
Cheltenham<br />
<br />
1:30<br />
<br />
For a few months now, the market for this race has been dominated by Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation.<br />
They have already met twice this year - and there has been precious little between them.<br />
On the first occasion, Lostintransation got back up to pip an idling Defi Du Seuil; whilst on the second meeting, Defi was delivered later by Barry Geraghty and managed to gain his revenge.<br />
I suspect there will be little between the pair again this afternoon - and they definitely set the standard for the race - but I’m hopeful that Vinndication will be able to get the better of them…<br />
On first viewing, that might seem unlikely as he was comfortably beaten by them both last time out at Sandown.<br />
However, as we’ve already seen this week, Sandown and Cheltenham present very different tests - and Vinndication was sent off 11/8 favourite that day.<br />
His price was down to the fact that he was, until then, unbeaten over obstacles.<br />
More than that, he had showed very good form - and a really willing attitude.<br />
There was nothing wrong with his attitude at Sandown - and ultimately he was only beaten 3 lengths.<br />
In a way, it’s still a little surprising that he is taking on the 2 horses who beat him, when the initial feeling seemed to be that he would benefit from a step up in trip.<br />
However, his trainer has been very bullish about his chances, following some strong recent home work - and ultimately, 3 lengths isn’t a huge distance to recover.<br />
Outside of the ‘big 3’, then there is a strong challenge from Ireland - and in particular the stable of Willie Mullins.<br />
Real Steal looks to be his number one contender - and he has won well on his two most recent outings.<br />
However, he had limitations over hurdles - and also fell on his chasing debut.<br />
He will need to be improving fast, if he is to take care of the English horses.<br />
That’s also true for Voix du Reve - though he may benefit from a step up in distance.<br />
The mare, Pravalaguna, has a chance; as does the Gordon Elliott trained Mengli Khan - in short, it’s quite an open race.<br />
That said, I’ll be disappointed if Vinndication doesn’t run really well - and with his battling attitude, whatever beats him, is likely to know it’s been in a race.<br />
<br />
2:10<br />
<br />
The presence of Sire du Berlais, makes this a tough race to play in…<br />
He stayed on well to finish fourth in last seasons Martin Pipe hurdle, when running from a 2lb higher mark.<br />
He’s only run 3 times since then, most recently when given a masterful ride by Davy, to finish sixth in the Leopardstown the qualifier for this series.<br />
It’s necessary to finish in the first 6 in one of the qualifiers in order to make it into the final - and Davy squeezed him into precisely that position, with the accuracy of a trained marksman !<br />
There is little doubt the horse has been targeted at this race - and connections have a well handicapped horse, who could still be improving,<br />
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is another tell tale sign - and he’s clearly going to take a lot of beating.<br />
The issue is the price: He’s 5/1 in a 24 runner handicap.<br />
I guess I would have less of an issue with that, if he had the actual form to match the price - but it’s more about reading between the lines…<br />
Ultimately, I would expect the market to tell.<br />
11/2 is tight, but he could easily go off a point or two shorter.<br />
If he does, then I doubt you will need to look anywhere else for the winner…<br />
Of the others, then I was quite interested in Abolitionist, for Dr Newland: however he was tipped in a couple of places yesterday afternoon - and the 25/1 available early, soon became 16/1.<br />
I would expect him to run well - but there isn’t too much value left in his price.<br />
<br />
2:50<br />
<br />
I’m pretty keen on Road to Respect in this.<br />
Partially because I think he’s the best horse in the race: and partially because I think the race will be run to suit him… <br />
In terms of pure ability, then he is the joint highest rated horse in the race, along with Frodon.<br />
More than that, he has earnt his rating, via a series of big efforts in top class races.<br />
He was runner up last time out, in the Irish Gold cup; and that followed a third place in the grade 1 Savills chase at Christmas, when the race didn’t pan out well for him.<br />
He has also got excellent festival form.<br />
He hacked up in the Plate, a couple of seasons back - and then finished fourth in last years Gold Cup.<br />
That race was run on ground softer than he would like, but he was still going as well as anything, at the top of the hill, before his stamina ebbed away up the home straight.<br />
Cutting him back in trip today, looks a smart move - and dropping him a touch in grade, could prove crucial.<br />
That said, this is a tough race - and he faces some worthy opponents.<br />
However 2 of his main rivals, are habitual front runners - and I think that with help Road to Respect as much as it will hinder them.<br />
Both Monalee and Frodon need to lead - and that’s not going to be possible !<br />
In fact, they might find themselves both under pressure from Un de Sceaux - so there really could be a pace burn up.<br />
Such a scenario will suit Road to Respect perfectly, as he likes to travel in behind horses…<br />
In the circumstances, it could mean that Footpad is his biggest danger.<br />
He looked a world beater as a novice last season - but just hasn’t looked the same horse this campaign.<br />
In fairness, he’s only run twice this season, so it’s a bit early to be writing him off; however, there is also a chance that his novice of last year, flattered him…<br />
Of the outsiders, then last years winner, Balco des Flos, looks by far the most dangerous.<br />
However, he has been disappointing this season, so will need to bounce back to his very best - and even if that happens, he might still not be good enough to beat Road to respect…<br />
There is little doubt in my mind that Road to Respect will take a world of beating in this - provided he gets that bit of luck which you always need.<br />
Here’s hoping !<br />
<br />
3:30<br />
<br />
Paisley Park is being touted as a certainty in this - but I’m not so sure…<br />
Don’t get me wrong, he’s been massively impressive in his races this season - and fully deserves to be at the head of the market for todays race.<br />
However, he’s been on the go since October, and I wonder whether he will still be at his peak this afternoon.<br />
His profile reminds me of that of Unowhatimeanharry, when he ran in the race a couple of seasons back - and he got beaten…<br />
The tricky part, is finding one to beat him…<br />
Faugheen is second favourite - but he’s now 11 and comes here on the back of a mother and father of a fall.<br />
I suspect he is more likely to get pulled up (and retired) than he is to win…<br />
The most obvious one to take advantage if Paisley Park isn’t at his peak, is Supasundae.<br />
He finished runner up in the race 12 months ago - just outsprinted in the finish, by Penhill.<br />
It helped his case that there wasn’t much pace on in last years race - but that may be the case again this afternoon.<br />
There is a chance that Ruby will try and dictate things on Faugheen (which would make him dangerous) - though I suspect he will be harried up front by Sam Spinner and Nautical Nitwit.<br />
I put up Sam Spinner as an ante post tip, back in November.<br />
He was massively disappointing on his first 2 runs this season - but did do a little better last time.<br />
In truth, I would be very surprised if he were to win this afternoon - but at least he’s turned up, so we do have some chance of collecting !<br />
However, I think the chance of collecting on Supasundae is much higher.<br />
It does depend on the 2 market leaders under-performing - but I think that is distinctly possible.<br />
Outside of them, the race is there for the taking - and hopefully Supasundae will be able to take it !<br />
<br />
4:10<br />
<br />
He may only be 8 years old, but Bouvreuil has already got a very impressive record at the Cheltenham festival…<br />
Formerly trained by Paul Nichols, he finished runner up in the Fred Winter hurdle at the 2015 festival; before filling the same spot, 12 months later in the novice handicap chase.<br />
He could only manage third in the 2017 Plate - but that was behind Road to Respect (as above !) and Baron Alco - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.<br />
Last season, he was well fancied for the Grand Annual - but was brought down at the second fence.<br />
I think he deserves a change of festival fortune - and hopefully he will get that this afternoon…<br />
He is now in the care of Ben Haslam, and won on his debut for him at Wetherby in December.<br />
That was a good effort. He beat Movie Legend by a length - and that one has subsequently won twice and is now rated 9lb higher in the handicap.<br />
Bouvreuil on the other hand, is just 3lb higher - having disappointed on his only subsequent run…<br />
That was also in December and I think it is in his favour that he has been kept fresh since then.<br />
He’s also had wind surgery - and I suspect he will primed to run a big race today.<br />
Clearly he will need some luck - but if he gets that, I can’t see him not going very close.<br />
In truth, despite the numbers, this doesn’t look the most competitive of races…<br />
Janika and Siruh du Lac set the standard - but they are both a fair bit higher in the handicap, than when fighting out the finish of a good race on Trials day.<br />
Spiritofthegame also ran well that day - but he looked primed to win on that occasion, so I wonder how much improvement he has in him…<br />
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Azzerti run well - though I’m not sure that todays test is ideal for him…<br />
I think there can be little doubt it is ideal for Bouvreuil - and I expect him to run a really big race.<br />
Whether that will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell - but I’m hopeful !<br />
<br />
4:50<br />
<br />
This is not a race that I particularly expected to be playing in - but a Epatante looks to have been put in too short - and that means there is value elsewhere…<br />
In fairness, to Epatante, she’s nearly impossible to get a handle on, having been a very easy winner of her 2 UK races.<br />
She is clearly held in high regard by connections - but the fitting of a first time hood, hints at issues - and this is too competitive a race to be backing something at 2/1…<br />
Somewhat Ironically, I’m taking her on with Elusive Belle: who has also only run twice in the UK - and will be wearing a first time hood !<br />
However, she was a 16/1 shot yesterday evening, which made her far more appealing.<br />
Whether she has as much ability as Epatante, remains to be seen: but a 19 length destruction of a 136 rated horse (admittedly in receipt of a fair chunk of weight), suggests she could be very useful indeed.<br />
She didn’t give herself any chance of getting home when pulling too hard in a small field race, last time - but todays bigger field and the fitting of the hood, should enable her to show what she is capable of this afternoon…<br />
In addition to her, I want Indefatigable on side, at an even bigger price…<br />
She has finished runner up on her 2 most recent outings. Firstly behind Posh Trish at Taunton; and then behind Lady Buttons, at Doncaster.<br />
They are both strong pieces of form. She was only beaten 2 lengths by Post Trish at Taunton and it really doesn’t make any sense, that she can be backed at the same price to place, as Posh Trish can be backed to win.<br />
In truth, there are plenty of others who can also be given a chance…<br />
Sancta Simona and My Sister Sarah, look two strong contenders for Willie Mullins: whilst Sinoria is a mare on an upward trajectory, who I would expect to run very well.<br />
<br />
5:30<br />
<br />
I have to be honest, I ran out of time to assess this race properly - and whilst I do have a few half fancies, I don’t want to be tipping something that I’ve not fully researched…<br />
As with the Pertemps final you have to be very fearful that Gordon Elliot has plotted one up here, in the shape of Measureofmydreams.<br />
He finished third behind Minella Roccoa and Native River in the 2016 NH chase - and off a mark of 137 today, he could be thrown in.<br />
He showed distinct promise on his comeback from injury at Fairyhouse last month - and the booking of Jamie Codd shows intent.<br />
However, I really couldn’t entertain him at 9/2 (even less than Sire du Berlais !).<br />
On first inspection, I was drawn to No Comment and Just a Sting, as both should have scope for improvement.<br />
Of the pair, I would slightly prefer the chances of No Comment.<br />
He is a classy horse, who ran well, to a point, in last seasons NH chase.<br />
The other 2 that I briefly considered getting involved with, are Captain Chaos and Perfect Candidate.<br />
I could certainly see the former running well - though I would have some concerns about him getting up the hill.<br />
Perfect Candidate will have no issue with the hill, the question is smply whether his advancing years have caught up with him (he’s now 12).<br />
On balance, I just didn’t feel sufficiently strongly about anything to warrant getting involved with the race.<br />
If forced, I’d side with Cpatain Chaos, each way - and he might be worth a small play if you can get 25/1 and reasonable place terms…<br />
<br />
<br />
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
Tips<br />
<br />
Chel 1:30 Vinndication 1pt win 8/1<br />
Chel 2:50 Road to Respect 2pt win 9/2<br />
Chel 3:30 Supasundae 1pt win 8/1<br />
Chel 3:30 Sam Spinner 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)<br />
Chel 4:10 Bouvreuil 0.5pt EW 25/1<br />
Chel 4:50 Indefatigable 0.5pt EW 33/1<br />
Chel 4:50 Elusive Belle 0.5pt win 16/1<br />
<br />
Mentions<br />
<br />
Chel 2:10 Sire du Berlais (S )<br />
Chel 5:30 Captain Chaos EW<br />
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The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-16803753553777191642019-03-18T13:15:00.000-07:002019-03-18T13:15:04.356-07:00Review of the dayThere was no joy with todays tips - which was disappointing, if not entirely surprising…<br />
<br />
It always looked like being a tough day - and my high risk strategy didn’t pay off.<br />
<br />
Most of the tips were speculative plays - the main exception being Sams Profile, in the opener.<br />
<br />
I thought he had a good chance - and he ran a fair race.<br />
He was still in there pitching at the second last, but he slipped slightly on landing after jumping the hurdle - and that was his race over.<br />
<br />
The Worlds End was a very speculative play, against 3 strongly fancied opponents - but I hoped he would at least give us a decent run for our money.<br />
<br />
Alas, that wasn’t really the case, as his jumping was hesitant throughout, and he was beaten a fair way from home.<br />
<br />
The race was won in impressive style, by Topofthegame.<br />
I could easily have put us on him, if he’d been any kind of price this morning.<br />
However, 7/2 was as good as it got - and there seemed minimal margin in that.<br />
<br />
His SP of 4/1 was a little better - and may have tempted me in - but it wasn’t an option when I was able to tip…<br />
<br />
I took 2 against the field in the Coral Cup - and it’s fair to say that they ran contrasting races !<br />
<br />
Killultagh Vic was a huge disappointment (having been weak in the market) and was never sighted.<br />
Brio Conti on the other hand, tanked through the race, and arguably could have won.<br />
<br />
However, he did a bit too much, too soon - and had little left for the final hill.<br />
<br />
At Cheltenham, optimal distribution of energy is absolutely key.<br />
He’s clearly still a well handicapped horse however, and I’ll not be at all surprised if he gains compensation at Aintree…<br />
<br />
Altior managed to win the Champion chase - though it was a bit of a struggle !<br />
<br />
He looked beaten jumping the last, but the horse has a rare desire to win - and it seemed almost inevitable that he would battle back, past Politologue and Sceau Royal, up the hill.<br />
<br />
Any other horse would have lost - but Altior is something special.<br />
<br />
Tiger Roll is also turning into something special…<br />
I felt he had to be opposed in the cross country chase - but he cantered through the entire race and never looked remotely like getting beaten…<br />
<br />
Auvergnat was a horrible late drifter (out to 15 on BF) - and ran accordingly.<br />
Tea for Two on the other hand, was very well backed.<br />
He was just starting to make his move, when he stumbled and unseated Lizzy Kelly.<br />
<br />
I very much doubt he would have beaten Tiger Roll - but it would have been interesting to see how close he could have got…<br />
<br />
As I said this morning, the Fred Winter looked a complete lottery - so it was a little surprising to see Band of Outlaws backed in to 7/2, at the off - though far less so, to then see him win comfortably !<br />
<br />
It may be the Cheltenham festival - but that just means that the certainties carry even more money !<br />
<br />
And that was also the case in the finale, where Envoi Allen was backed into 2/1 fav - and held off the 7/2 second fav.<br />
In fairness, the winner did cost £400K - so I guess connections were keen to recoup some of their cash.<br />
<br />
It was all a bit of a shame for Thyme Hill, who ran an absolute cracker for a 20/1 shot - but could only manage third place…<br />
<br />
Hopefully tomorrow will deliver better.<br />
<br />
TVB.The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-25422106266617823142019-03-18T13:14:00.000-07:002019-03-18T13:35:56.451-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 13th (Cheltenham - Day 2)Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival…<br />
<br />
It wasn’t easy to figure out the exact state of the ground, yesterday…<br />
<br />
The times for most of the races, weren’t too bad (suggesting conditions no worse than soft) - and this was backed up visually, in some of the races.<br />
However, the post race jockey comments, tended to suggest it was borderline heavy - and things certainly looked pretty desperate in the last !<br />
<br />
I guess it’s fair to say that the surface didn’t suit fast ground horses - and was a good deal softer than the ground that has been raced on for the past few months.<br />
<br />
What happens to it from here however, remains in the lap of the weather gods… (with more rain forecast)<br />
<br />
In terms of todays racing, then it’s another excellent day.<br />
<br />
The feared destructive winds, haven’t materialised, so racing goes ahead as planned (probably !)<br />
<br />
Altior is the headline act in the Champion chase - but there is a decent supporting card (as you would expect).<br />
<br />
Wednesday tends to be the hardest day to find tips, as a few of the races don’t tend to lend themselves to betting.<br />
That’s the case again today - and I’ve not forced things.<br />
<br />
As a consequence, there are 7 tips on the day, across 5 races.<br />
<br />
Ofcourse, I’ve also got views on the the days other races.<br />
<br />
Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my other thoughts on the day…<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Cheltenham</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>1:30</b><br />
<br />
Despite a last time out defeat to Battleoverdoyen at Naas, early in January, I want to be with Sams Profile in this…<br />
Superficially, there appears little reason why he should reverse the form today - but I’m optimistic he will.<br />
For a start, Sams Profile is the younger horse and was having only his third run over hurdles, that day.<br />
His inexperience seemed to catch him out early in the race, when his jumping was poor.<br />
He gradually warmed to the task as the race progressed, and it says much for his ability that he still had every chance turning in.<br />
However, he was hampered a couple of times, approaching the second last - and by the time he got into the clear, Battleoverdoyen had flown.<br />
He ran on strongly to the line, taking a comfortable second placing - and I suspect he will improve significantly for the experience.<br />
Whether that will enable him to reverse the form, remains to be seen - but I think he is a sporting bet to do so.<br />
In truth, even if he can get the better of Battleoverdoyen this is still a strong field.<br />
However, I have some doubts concerning the favourite, Champ - whilst the other main English challenger, Brewinupastorm, also looks vulnerable…<br />
That said, there aren’t many I could comfortably eliminate, so Sams Profile could still have his work cut out.<br />
However, I do very much like his trainer, Mouse Morris - and I get the feeling that Sams Profile is a very good horse.<br />
Hopefully he will demonstrate that to be the case, this afternoon !<br />
<br />
<b>2:10</b><br />
<br />
This race has got a similar shape to yesterday Champion hurdle, with 3 horses dominating the betting…<br />
The market says that the winner will come from Delta Work; Santini or Topofthegame - and that may well be the case.<br />
However, as yesterdays Champion demonstrated, almost anything can happen in a horse race - never mind a 3 mile novice chase, run on questionable ground !<br />
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a risk on one of the outsiders - and I’ve opted to side with The Worlds End…<br />
On official ratings, he is the joint best horse in the race, along with Delta Work and Topofthegame; he can also boast an impressive course win, back in December - so his credentials aren’t bad for a 25/1 shot…<br />
On the flip side, there is a question mark over him, on soft ground - and he did disappoint last time out.<br />
That was in the Kauto Star novice chase at Kempton, when he finished well behind both Topofthegame and Santini.<br />
However he was sent off at just 6/1 that day - but didn’t appear to handle the track.<br />
It strikes me as significant that he’s not been seen since then - and also that he returns, sporting first time cheek pieces.<br />
As was the case 12 months ago, his trainer Tom George, seems to have his string in top form for the festival (he had a couple of big priced runners perform very well yesterday), and simply, I think the horse has been under-estimated by the market…<br />
Of the ‘big 3’ then I would be least keen on Santini,<br />
I’m sure the horse has huge talent - but his preparation has been far from ideal and I suspect that will ultimately catch him out today.<br />
The question mark with Topofthegame, is his stamina - if he doesn’t settle early in the race.<br />
Delta Work does look bomb proof - the question is simply whether he is good enough (he’s not beaten a great deal, in Ireland).<br />
The official handicapper says he might be - but then again, so might The Worlds End !<br />
At 10 times the price, the latter has to be worth a small risk…<br />
<br />
<b>2:40</b><br />
<br />
There is a monster field of 25 for this - but I’m happy enough siding with just 2, in the shape of Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti.<br />
Killultagh Vic is a former festival winner - who has also shown himself capable of operating at grade 1 level.<br />
His festival win came in the 2015 Marin Pipe hurdle - and he followed that up next time, by beating Thistlecrack at Punchestown.<br />
The following season, he was in the process of making up into a top class novice chaser - but a fall at Leopardstown derailed his career.<br />
Despite that, he would have won the last years Irish Gold cup, if he hadn’t fallen at the last, when in the lead.<br />
The bottom line with him, is that he is a grade 1 horse - when at his best.<br />
There is a chance he might not be at his best today - but he runs off a mark of just 150, and if he is, I think he will win.<br />
Certainly, at odds of 14/1, he is worth a risk…<br />
The other one I want on side, is Brio Conti…<br />
He was a winning Mention at Ascot, last time (one of 3 on the day - as I’m sure you all recall !).<br />
I was put off tipping him that day, because Paul Nichols reckoned he would need the run.<br />
That might have been the case - but it didn’t stop him from winning !<br />
He has only been raised 5lb for the victory - and if Nichols was right and he did need the run, then I think he will go very close again today.<br />
Certainly, he has form which suggests he could still be leniently rated off a mark of 146 - and his stable couldn’t be in better form…<br />
As you would expect, in a race of this nature, there are plenty of others, for whom half cases could be made…<br />
I thought Dancing on my Own looked very interesting - but the fancy prices on him were taken before the market had stabilised.<br />
I would expect Vision des Flos to run well - but he may be a shade high in the weights: whilst Cracking Smart looks dangerous, for Gordon Elliot.<br />
In truth, I could easily list a few more ‘dangers’ but in reality, I‘m happy that Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti have both got excellent chances in a very competitive race.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>3:30</b><br />
<br />
It’s always great to see a true champion performing - and there can be little doubt that Altior is a true champion.<br />
Unbeaten in 17 races over obstacles, he will today, attempt to win at his fourth successive Cheltenham festival.<br />
It’s quite possible, that at some point in the race, he will look in trouble: however, in all probability, that won’t be when as he powers up the final hill !<br />
It says much, that Min looks, by some way, his biggest rival today.<br />
However, that was also the case 12 months ago, when Altior dispatched him by 7 lengths - and also in in 2015 when he beat him by exactly the same margin, in the Supreme hurdle.<br />
In truth, Altior looks bomb proof.<br />
The only way he is likely to be beaten is if there is no pace in the race - or if he makes a catastrophic mistake (or finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time).<br />
Saint Calvados and Hell’s Kitchen should ensure there is pace in the race: and whilst mistakes and bad luck are always possible, they are not things which I feel comfortable using as an argument, to take on any horse (and certainly not Altior !).<br />
Hopefully he will just romp home - and we will be treated to the sight of a true champion, performing at the peak of his powers.<br />
After all, that’s really what the Cheltenham festival should be about…<br />
<br />
<b>4:10</b><br />
<br />
Admirable horse that he is, I feel that Tiger Roll has to be taken on at odds of 5/4, in this…<br />
Of course, he won the corresponding race last year - and followed up in the Grand National - so his credentials are very strong.<br />
However, with 30 fences to be jumped and almost 4 miles to travel, the element of ‘lottery’ in the race, means that it would be hard to support any horse at a price close to even money.<br />
Instead, I’d rather side with Auvergnat and Tea for Two…<br />
The former finished fourth in last years race - but has taken his form to a new level this season.<br />
That’s courtesy of an emphatic win in the Paddy Power, at Leopardstown, at Christmas.<br />
Auvergnat was massively impressive that day, suggesting that he may still be improving.<br />
It’s interesting that connections have resisted running him again since then - and he looks very much, the one that Tiger Roll has to beat…<br />
That said, I also want to take a risk on Tea for Two.<br />
He’s not been in great form this season - but he is a proven grade 1 performer and is still only 10.<br />
He’s won an Aintree Bowl - and been placed in a King George - and horses with that level of ability don’t tend to run in cross country races.<br />
However, he is being targeted at the Grand National and connections reasonably think this will give him valuable experience.<br />
He should handle the ground - and cope with the distance, so if he does take to the obstacles, I can see him running a very big race.<br />
A few of the others can also be given half chances - so whatever, I don’t think this will be a cake walk for Tiger Roll...<br />
<br />
<b>4:50</b><br />
<br />
I did intend to get involved with this race - but the more I look at it, the more it appears a complete minefield !<br />
Maybe that shouldn't be too surprising, with 22 unexposed juvenile hurdlers.<br />
I honestly think I could make quite a compelling case for at least half of them - and that’s too many…<br />
Got Trumped was the one I nearly tipped - but he has little in hand of La Sorelita (she has been a Mention in the past).<br />
More than that, jockey bookings suggest that La Sorelita is the lesser fancied of Willie Mullins pair, behind Ceil De Neige. But as he is making his stable debut, a lot of guesswork is required…<br />
That’s also the case for Fox Pro (who makes his debut for Jane Williams) and Naturelle (who makes his UK debut for his French trainer).<br />
All 3 could be anything - but equally, would be impossible to support…<br />
More conventional form study could lead you to one of Joseph O’Briens 3 runners - but it would be hard to choose between them: Similarly, Gordon Elliott runs 3 - but trying to figure out his number one, is no easy task…<br />
Fanfare du Seuil is yet another one that needs adding to the mix - and I could still have missed the winner !<br />
In short, the race is an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum - and in the circumstances, almost certainly best just watched !<br />
<br />
<b>5:30</b><br />
<br />
After due consideration, I’ve decided to get involved with this race.<br />
The issue I have, is that there is very little from to work with - so a lot of guesswork is required.<br />
On the flip side, that means that the market could easily have got things wrong - so there could be some decent value available…<br />
And I think that’s the case with Thyme Hill.<br />
He’s run just twice in his life: winning at Worcester and the finishing runner up to Master Debonair in the listed bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting.<br />
He ran really well that day, staying on strongly, having taken the (unfavourable) inside route, round the home turn.<br />
It’s interesting that connections have saved him since then - and from a pure value perspective, it’s impossible to understand why he is twice the price of the horse who finished just a neck in front of him…<br />
Ofcourse, there is a danger that the form of that race won’t be strong enough to win today - but that’s true for all of the runners…<br />
Envoi Allen and Blue Sari represent Elliott and Mullins - and appear to be the pick of the Irish contingent.<br />
However, there is no value in their respective prices…<br />
That’s now also the case, for the Paul Nichols trained, Ask for Glory.<br />
He held some appeal at a double figure price, on the back of a bloodless debut win at Chepstow - but at 7/1, there is no margin in his current price.<br />
Sempo is the final one worthy of a mention, for Joseph O’Brien and Derek O Connor - and it would certainly be no surprise to see him run a big race…<br />
<br />
<br />
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Tips</b><br />
<br />
Chel 1:30 Sams Profile 1pt win 11/1<br />
Chel 2:10 The Worlds End 0.5pt win 25/1<br />
Chel 2:50 Killultagh Vic 0.5pt win 14/1<br />
Chel 2:50 Brio Conti 0.5pt win 11/1<br />
Chel 4:10 Tea for Two 0.5pt win 25/1<br />
Chel 4:10 Auvergnat 0.5pt win 8/1<br />
Chel 5:30 Thyme Hill 0.5pt win 22/1<br />
<br />
<b>Mentions</b><br />
<br />
Chel 4:50 Got Trumped (O )<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-64306584059857548542019-03-18T13:05:00.001-07:002019-03-18T13:05:49.350-07:00Review of the dayAfter 8 years previewing the festival (and considerably more just watching it !), it seems ridiculous that I can still be shocked, watching events unfold - but year after year, that remains the case…<br />
<br />
The heavy rain introduced an element of lottery to the days proceedings - and boy did the gods of luck, revel in that !<br />
<br />
Drama unfolded, race after race - with each subsequent race seemingly determined to upstage its predecessor…<br />
<br />
Relatively, speaking things started quite calmly, with an easy win for Klassical Dancer in the Supreme.<br />
I certainly could have given him a chance - but equally, couldn’t have backed him at 5/1.<br />
<br />
However, he looked transformed by the softer ground - and was a very easy winner.<br />
<br />
Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet ran excellent races to finish second and third for Olly Murphy.<br />
I could have been interested in the latter - but he needs decent ground (which I wasn’t sure he was going to get).<br />
<br />
Next up it was the Arkle - and the first tip of the day, in the shape of Kalashinkov.<br />
<br />
I have to admit that I felt he had a real chance - and the early fall of Glen Forsa, plus Lalors lack of interest, left me feeling very optimistic.<br />
<br />
Kalashnikov himself was jumping and travelling really well - when Ornua fell directly in front of him and brought him down.<br />
It was so unlucky - the horse was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.<br />
<br />
In fairness, Duc des Genevries subsequently went on and absolutely hacked up - but it’s hard to think that Kalashnikov wouldn’t have finished at least second - and with a bit of luck, who knows…<br />
<br />
It can be a tough game at times…<br />
<br />
Next it was the Ultima handicap - and why Minella Rocco took his chance, I’ve no idea…<br />
He had drifted to 28 on BF at the off - never moved out of the last 3 - and was pulled up well before half way.<br />
<br />
The word ‘disappointing’ doesn’t really do it justice !<br />
<br />
The race was won by the 2 ‘mud larks’ who I identified this morning - with Beware the Bear getting the better of Vintage Cloud…<br />
<br />
Next it was the big one - the Champion hurdle,<br />
<br />
It had been billed as a 3 corner affair: between Buveur D’air, Apples Jade and Laurina - but that’s not how it panned out !<br />
<br />
In a change of tactics, Melon raced prominently and never gave Apples Jade a moments peace.<br />
It was soon clear that she wasn’t going to be winning.<br />
Therefore, when Buveur D’air stepped at a hurdle along the back straight and came down, the race looked to be at Laurina's mercy.<br />
<br />
However, she wasn’t up to the job - and instead it was the unheralded Espoir Dallen who took advantage and won in convincing fashion.<br />
<br />
You can’t take anything away from him and time may show him to be a very good champion - however, he was left with literally nothing to beat this afternoon…<br />
<br />
Next it was the mares hurdle - in which I felt Benie des Dieux was vulnerable.<br />
<br />
Ultimately, I was proven right - but only because she took a fall at the last, when looking sure to win.<br />
<br />
I tipped Momella in the race - but she ran disappointingly.<br />
I could easily have tipped Roksana - but a price this morning of 7/1, was too short.<br />
I may have been more tempted by her SP of 10/1 - but that’s immaterial…<br />
<br />
The penultimate race of the days was the novice handicap chase.<br />
I was quite keen on A Plus Tard, as I felt he might be a graded horse in a handicap.<br />
<br />
That theory had been given more weight earlier in the afternoon, when Duc des Genievres won the Arkle - as A plus Tard had beaten him on his penultimate outing.<br />
<br />
And sure enough, A Plus Tard was indeed a graded horse in a handicap - and probably a grade 1 horse !<br />
<br />
Rarely will you see a handicap won more easily.<br />
The winning distance at the line, was 16 lengths - but it could easily have been 30…<br />
<br />
The NH chase was the final race of the day - and it ended up a complete war.<br />
<br />
Horse after horse made mistakes and fell - or just ran out of steam.<br />
<br />
Chef des Obeaux had already made one chunking mistake, when he was eventually stopped in his tracks, by the fall of one of his rivals.<br />
<br />
18 horses set out - but just 4 made it home - with Le Breuil getting the better of a protracted struggle with Discorama.<br />
You won’t see many more attritional contests….<br />
<br />
As dramatic opening days go - today was certainly up there with the best of them !<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-27831963917039421282019-03-18T13:04:00.002-07:002019-03-18T13:35:13.608-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 12th (Cheltenham Day 1)Day 1 of the Cheltenham festival…<br />
<br />
I think I’m getting old: it certainly doesn’t seem 12 months since the last one !<br />
In fact, I’ve lost count of the number of festivals that I’ve now previewed (I think this is the eighth one - though I could be wrong).<br />
<br />
There have been some great races during that time - and some great memories - and I’m sure this years festival won’t disappoint (it never does).<br />
<br />
What might disappoint however, is the weather !<br />
<br />
I said a few weeks back that what I hated most with this job, was rain (or the threat of rain), on a Friday evening.<br />
I’d like to change that: what I actually hate most, is rain (or the threat of rain), on the Monday evening, before the Cheltenham festival starts !<br />
<br />
Yet that is exactly what we got - and it’s the threat of significant rain (up to 15mm).<br />
<br />
As things currently stand the ground looks a perfect mix of good to soft - soft in places, with a thick covering of grass.<br />
However, what it will be like when this afternoons races are run, is anyones guess…<br />
<br />
I suspect it will be soft - and that will put a very different slant on things.<br />
It will also make it harder to figure out what will happen for the rest of the week - as the ground may dry out - or further rain may fall.<br />
<br />
I guess nobody said it was easy…<br />
<br />
We have 2 choices: either to take an educated guess on conditions: or accept we won’t know and give the racing a miss !<br />
In truth, there isn’t really a choice…<br />
<br />
That said, my tendency is to tread carefully - at least on day 1.<br />
<br />
The racing is brilliant - but it would be very hard to assess, even if we knew how the ground was riding.<br />
With that key piece of info missing (at least, when decisions on tips needed to be made), it makes sense to ease in gradually…<br />
<br />
As you would expect, I’ve previewed all of the afternoons races - but I’ve not gone mad with the tips.<br />
Hopefully we’ll have more clarity on conditions, as the week progresses…<br />
<br />
Here are my thoughts on day 1.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Cheltenham</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>1:30</b><br />
<br />
This is an absolute cracker to start the meeting with - though identifying the winner, certainly isn’t easy…<br />
Of the 3 market leaders, I prefer the chances of Angel Breath to that of Al Dancer and Klassical Dream. The latter in particular, looks under-priced at 5/1 (he has nothing in hand of Aramon, on their meeting at the Dublin racing festival).<br />
I’ve no major issue with Al Dancer - and I would expect him to run well - I just think he looks beatable and 5/1 is too short a price…<br />
Arguably it is too short a price for Angel Breath - but he’s a horse with huge potential (and a reputation to match), so I think it’s harder to judge the ‘right’ price for him.<br />
Whatever, I think he is just about the most likely winner…<br />
That said, Fakir D’oudaries is a real danger - re-routed to this, from the Triumph hurdle.<br />
He was really impressive when winning the juvenile race on trial day at the end of January - though how that form will translate in all age company, is anyones guess…<br />
The race would be strong enough if just those 4 were running - but there are at least another half dozen, all of whom can be given a chance of sorts…<br />
Both Aramon and Vision D’honneur, have form that gives them almost the same chance as Klassical Dream (and makes them better bets !).<br />
I suspect both are unlikely winners - but either could be placed.<br />
Grand Sancy, Mister Fisher, Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet, have all got form that links in with Elixir de Nutz.<br />
He was withdrawn from the race yesterday evening - but looked to have a fair chance.<br />
By definition, the 4 named, therefore can be given a chance (at least of placing) - though soft ground could be an issue for the last 3…<br />
It’s not even possible to completely eliminated, Felix Desjy, Brandon Castle, The Big bite or Tokay Dokey - which shows just how open the race is !<br />
<br />
If forced to select the most likely winner, I’d go with Angel Breath; whilst Al Dancer looks the one most likely to place.<br />
There are plenty of each way, value options - and the ground is likely to have a big effect on which horses run well.<br />
Assuming it is on the soft side, the Grand Sancy, could run in to a place at 14/1: whilst if the ground were to remain on the good side, Itchy Feet would be very interesting, at 33/1.<br />
<br />
<b>2:10</b><br />
<br />
There could be some serious pace in this race, with Knocknanus and Ornua both habitual front runners: and Articulm, Clondaw Castle, Duc de Genieveres, Paloma Blue and Glen Forsa all having lead last time.<br />
Clearly the race can’t be run to suit all 7 - so something will have to give.<br />
I doubt it will be either Knocknanus or Ornua, so it’s to be hoped that the other 5 are happy to slot in !<br />
I suspect that Duc de Genievres and Glen Forsa will do just that - but that means they won’t be able to duplicate the run style which has resulted in recent impressive wins.<br />
We will find out this afternoon, whether they are adaptable, with regard to racing style…<br />
Plenty of race pace, shouldn’t be an issue for Lalor, Hardline or Kalashnikov - and that makes them safer bets.<br />
That said, soft ground won’t be ideal for Lalor: whilst Hardlines best form is arguably at half a mile further.<br />
His stamina should be an asset this afternoon - but that is also the case for Kalashnikov.<br />
In fact, Kalashnikov, has ticks in plenty of boxes…<br />
He was just about the best of the runners over hurdles - with his second placing in last years Supreme novice hurdle, demonstrating an aptitude for the course.<br />
He will have no issue, with softening ground - in fact, his best form has been shown under testing conditions.<br />
At 6, he’s the youngest runner in the field - but his 4 runs over fences mean that he’s not short in fencing experience.<br />
The only real blip in his credentials, is his last time out defeat to Glen Forsa at Sandown.<br />
He was sent off a very short priced favourite that day, but Glen Forsa destroyed him, with quick accurate jumping.<br />
However, Sandown is a very different track to Cheltenham (sharper and right handed) - and allowed to get into a rhythm, there must be a chance that the form flatters Glen Forsa (and shows Kalashnikov in a poor light).<br />
Certainly, I’m prepared to ignore it - and without that run is his record, Kalashnikov would be close to favourite for this…<br />
Jack Quilan will need to make sure he keeps involved - and to achieve that the horse will need to jump well.<br />
However, if that happens, then I think he has every chance of winning.<br />
Certainly I think that odds of around 9/1 under-estimates his chance.<br />
<br />
<b>2:50</b><br />
<br />
I am fearful that the conditions will mess things up for Minella Rocco In this…<br />
I took a chance on him, last week - when the ground was forecast as ‘good to soft’ - and on that ground, I’d be very keen on him.<br />
However, he really doesn’t want it soft - never mind heavy - so if it does rain all morning, I doubt he will feature…<br />
And that’s a shame, because I could construct a very strong case for him !<br />
On his 2 previous runs at the festival, he’s won the 4 miler (beating subsequent Gold Cup winner, Native River) - and finished runner up in the Gold Cup (to Sizing John).<br />
Those 2 runs, suggest he is capable of running to a mark of around 170 - yet today, he runs off a mark of just 152 !<br />
That’ s because he has disappointed a few times since his Gold Cup run - though I think there were good reasons for most of those poor runs.<br />
His most recent effort over hurdles at Exeter, suggested that the ability still remains - and I suspect that Jonjo will have him spot on for today (it’s a race he has won 3 rimes, in the past 10 years).<br />
If the sun was shining, then I don’t think we would need look anywhere else for the race winner - but with storm clouds above, we might…<br />
The trouble is, take him out of the race and it looks a lot harder to call…<br />
I considered a saver on last years winner, Coo Star Sivola - but there is no margin in a price of 10/1 for a horse who ran very poorly last time.<br />
Noble Endeavour is another one I considered getting on side - but even more guesswork is required with him, as he’s only run once in the past 2 years…<br />
Both have a chance - but so do Up for Review, Give me a Copper and Mister Whitaker - and that’s just from the top of the market.<br />
There is also the question mark over ground conditions - as very soft would greatly help the chance of Beware the Bear and Vintage Clouds…<br />
On balance, I decided that it didn’t make sense to get involved further with the race.<br />
If somehow, the rain stays away, then I think we are on the right horse: if it pours down, then we probably aren’t - but it’s not easy to decide which the right one is !<br />
<br />
<b>3:30</b><br />
<br />
It seems crazy to see dual Champion hurdler, Buveur D’air as big as 11/4 for this…<br />
It’s not as if he’s done much wrong this season: an imperious win on his seasonal debut, when he looked better than ever, was admittedly followed by a disappointing defeat in the Christmas hurdle. However, on ground too quick - and a track to sharp - that is relatively easy to forgive.<br />
His last time win, at Sandown suggested he was just as good as ever - and under ideal conditions today, he is going to take the world of beating…<br />
The trouble for him is that he is opposed by 2 high class mares - and he has to give them both 7lb.<br />
The question is whether he will be up to the job…?<br />
No one knows for sure - but I do think that it’s very much in his favour, that 2 miles is his trip, whereas both Apples Jade and Laurina, would both prefer further…<br />
As is so often the case in tight races, jockeyship could well be key.<br />
Jack Kennedy is likely to try to make all on Apples Jade - with Barry and Ruby tracking him, on Buveur D’air and Laurina, respectively…<br />
I’ll be a little surprised if Luarina is good enough (though in truth, we don’t know where the ceiling of her ability lies); however, I’ll be far less surprised, if Buveur D’air proves to be Apples Jades master…<br />
I can see Barry tracking her until after the last - and then powering past on the run in.<br />
It could be argued that 11/4 is a price worth getting involved with - and I certainly wouldn’t dissuade anyone who wanted an interest.<br />
However, this strikes me as an exceptional horse race - which I’ll be more than happy, just to watch unfold, without financial interest…<br />
<br />
<b>4:10</b><br />
<br />
If she weren’t being touted as Willie Mullins best chance of the week, I wonder what price Benie des Dieux would be in this…<br />
It’s true that she won the corresponding race last season: but Apples Jade ran well below her best, so she only beat the 145 rated (and fully exposed) Midnight Tour, by half a length.<br />
That form gives her a chance today - but it certainly doesn’t make her an even money shot…<br />
Obviously you have to respect what Willie and Ruby say - but at the odds, she really should be taken on…<br />
I’m not that keen on her stable-mates either: with both Limini and Stormy Island looking beatable.<br />
The suggestion is therefore, that there could be some serious value in the race - and maybe I should have had more of a crack at it.<br />
The trouble is, even eliminating the Mullins trio, it still looks a tough race to call…<br />
Roksana is the obvious one - particularly as Dan Skelton seems to have teed her up for the race.<br />
However, she has plenty on, ratings-wise - and 7/1 is a tight enough price.<br />
Lady Buttons has a better chance, based on ratings - but she struggled to win last time and I wonder if she’s had enough for the season.<br />
Momella appears to be a better bet - and I think she is worth having on side.<br />
She has good course form, will be suited by the 2m4f trip - and will relish soft ground (assuming that’s what we get !).<br />
She will be having just her third run for Harry Fry this afternoon - having disappointed on her first 2.<br />
however, her form from last season, shows that she is capable of operating at this level - and there is a possibility that she may have improved...<br />
The obvious play is each way - but I’m happy to go win only, with Benie looking vulnerable - and Momella herself, lacking consistency.<br />
The final one of interest in the race, is Jester Jet.<br />
She’s another who should relish conditions - and it’s hard to see her not running her race.<br />
I think she looks less likely than Momella to win - but more likely to place.<br />
She could be worth a small EW saver…<br />
<br />
<b>4:50</b><br />
<br />
With 20 relatively unexposed runners, this looks very tough race to call.<br />
In truth, a case could be made for most of the runners - but I do quite like the claims of A Plus Tard.<br />
I’m obliviously not the only one, as he was installed early favourite - but in a race like this, most of the runners will get backed, so I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go off a decent price (at least 7/1).<br />
He’s actually the youngest runner in the race, at just 5 - but he has plenty of experience, having run 5 times in his native France, before moving to Ireland.<br />
He’s run 3 times for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland - and shaped with real promise on each occasion.<br />
He finished runner up on his debut in a decent beginners chase at Gowran in November; and followed that up by taking a similar race at Naas, in December.<br />
The form of that run now looks particularly strong, as he beat Duc de Genievres - and that one is third favourite for todays Arkle.<br />
A Plus Tards most recent run, was when runner up to Winter Escape in a grade 3 at Punchestown in January.<br />
To be honest, I’m a little surprised that he’s been given a rating, low enough to enable him to get into todays race - as it strikes me that he’s really a graded performer.<br />
In truth, he may need to be just that, in order to win, as it’s s strong field - and a few of the other runners could also have plenty in hand of their mark.<br />
That said, I suspect most of the main dangers will be Irish trained - as I can’t see a UK trained horse with the same potential as A Plus Tard.<br />
Good Man Pat looks like the best of the UK runners to me - but I’m not sure he will relish soft ground.<br />
Such conditions will hold no fears for Springtown Boy or Highway One o One - but they don’t strike me as being massively ahead of their marks…<br />
The Irish runners are far more difficult to assess.<br />
Tower Bridge looks to have been laid out for the race - though his stable/owner companion Shady Operator, also looks interesting.<br />
Riders onthe Storm, has a similar profile to A Plus Tard (without looking quite as good !); whilst Ben Dundee, is one who I could see running well, at a price.<br />
It’s certainly not a race where you can be dogmatic.<br />
However, A Plus Tard has a near flawless profile - and massive scope.<br />
He’s a deserving favourite - and I hope he can come home in front.<br />
<br />
<b>5:30</b><br />
<br />
If the rain does materialise in the expected quantities, then this could end up a war…<br />
That’s not going to suit OK Corral - who is probably the best horse in the race.<br />
He’s also got the best jockey in the race (Derek O Connor) - and is owned by JP Mcmanus, who is particularly keen to win the race.<br />
He is not taken on lightly - but his stablemate, Chef des Obeaux, could be worth a small play against him.<br />
Unlike OK Corral, Chef des Obeaux will relish any rain - and whilst he’s not yet shown himself as good as OK Corral over fences, he was of a similar ability of hurdles.<br />
In fact, when the 2 of them contested last seasons Albert Bartlett, Chef des Obeaux was sent off a 6/1 shot - with OK Corral at 16/1.<br />
Chef des Obeaux didn’t get home that day - and also finished behind OK Corral at Aintree, but he was only 6 at the time, so maybe it was all a bit much for him…<br />
He’s run 3 times over fences this season - and whilst he’s not yet set the world alight, there has been steady improvement.<br />
A debut third at Uttoxeter, was followed by an unseat when still in contention at Chepstow - and then a hard fought win at the same course, 3 weeks ago.<br />
That last run showed that Chef des Obeauxs strength is his stamina - and I can see that coming in very handy today !<br />
In truth, this is not a race where you could feel overly confident about any of the runners,<br />
With the doubts over OK Corral, Ballyward and Discorama look like the 2 to beat - but they hardly set an insurmountable standard.<br />
Atalanta Ablaze is theoretically interesting, with her mares allowance; whilst I could see Whisperinthebreeze running very well for a chunk of the race - but then not quite getting home…<br />
<br />
<br />
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Tips</b><br />
<br />
Chel 2:10 Kalashnikov 1pt win 9/1<br />
Chel 2:50 Minella Rocco 1pt win 9/1<br />
Chel 4:10 Momella 0.5pt win 20/1<br />
Chel 4:50 A Plus Tard 1pt win 7/1<br />
Chel 5:30 Chef des Obeaux 0.5pt win 20/1<br />
<br />
<b>Mentions</b><br />
<br />
Chel 1:30 Angel Breath (O )<br />
Chel 3:30 Buveur D’Air (O )<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Dobbers</b><br />
<br />
Chel 5:30 Whisperinthebreeze<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-28643604526848437902019-03-18T13:03:00.000-07:002019-03-18T13:03:13.822-07:00Review of the dayWhen I drew comparisons this morning, between Saint Leo and Overtown Express - I didn’t realise how similar things were going to end up !<br />
<br />
I tipped Overtown Express a couple of weeks ago at Chepstow and he looked to have his race under control, leaving the back - only for things to go horribly wrong at the first fence in the home straight…<br />
<br />
It was exactly the same scenario with Saint Leo at Ayr this afternoon, as he was still tanking, approaching the fourth last at Ayr (touched 1.7 in-running).<br />
<br />
He’d been so slick over the previous fences, that even a mistake looked unlikely - but worse than that, he fell.<br />
<br />
Thankfully, unlike Overtown Express, he lived to fight another day - but from a P&L perspective, it was the same outcome.<br />
What looked like being a nice profit, ended up a 2pt loss :(<br />
<br />
Thankfully, the blow had already been softened by Malaya, the only other tip on the day.<br />
<br />
In truth, she too could have ended up on the floor, as she made a dreadful mistake at the second last hurdle.<br />
<br />
I doubt many horses would have won after that, but Harry Cobden gathered her together, gave her a few moments to recover - and then launched at attack on Monsieur Lecoq.<br />
<br />
In fairness, he didn’t go down without a fight - but Malaya clearly had a fair bit in hand of her mark, as ultimately she won quite comfortably.<br />
<br />
The only surprising aspect, was the price drift to an SP of 7/1 (10 on BF) - showing once again, that the price shouldn’t be chased down in the these competitive big field handicaps (as someone wants to back most of the runners !).<br />
<br />
As for the days Mentions:<br />
Then Champagne Well ran a cracker to finish third in the NH novice handicap hurdle final, at Sandown.<br />
It would have been disappointing to tip him (to win) and not collect (which would have been the case, if I had got involved with the race).<br />
By contrast, Mystic Dreamer ran disappointingly in the bumper - seemingly not appreciating the very soft ground: whilst Ami Desbois was similarly disappointing in the handicap chase.<br />
There was no obvious excuse for his below par run - though he did have a tough race last time, and was running from a higher mark today.<br />
It’s all about getting on them when they are at their peak - not a race too soon - or too late !<br />
I think One for Harry was close to his peak today - but the ground wasn’t soft enough for him.<br />
He ran an honest race to finish fourth - and dropped a few more pounds, if he gets heavy ground next time, then there could still be another win in him…<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-12404127371011530732019-03-18T13:02:00.001-07:002019-03-18T13:34:09.777-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 9thThere are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Sandown, Ayr and Hereford in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.<br />
<br />
There has been some serous rain around this week…<br />
After months of virtual draught, no one can say it wasn’t due - or indeed needed - but the timing is poor.<br />
<br />
When it rains on race day - or the evening before - it’s nearly impossible to judge the effect on the ground, until it is too late.<br />
<br />
In fairness, we do have a reasonable idea of the impact it’s had on the Sandown going - because they raced there yesterday and it looked pretty holding.<br />
<br />
However, relatively speaking, we’re in the dark with regard to the other 3 tracks - and of course, to Cheltenham..!<br />
<br />
Expect me to be going on about it quite a bit for the next week or so - apologies in advance :)<br />
<br />
As for today: then quality action is thin on the ground.<br />
<br />
The days feature meeting takes place as Sandown: but a card built around a bumper and 2 ferocious handicaps, is unlikely to be particularly punter friendly !<br />
<br />
I’ve only managed to find one tip there…<br />
<br />
With no realistic options at Hereford or Gowran, the only other place for me to look was Ayr - and I managed to find a second tip there.<br />
<br />
It’s not much of a haul for a Saturday - but, as you are all aware, it’s really not a normal Saturday !<br />
<br />
If one of the tips can manage to come home in front, I’m sure you’ll be happy enough.<br />
<br />
Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other main races…<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Sandown</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>1:50</b><br />
<br />
Whilst there was a temptation to get involved with this race, the reality is: there are 18 unexposed runners - virtually all with significant scope for improvement - and ultimately, almost any result is possible !<br />
There will be enough handicaps like that next week, without me needing to take on one today !<br />
For what it’s worth, the 3 I was most interested in, were Garretstown, Champagne Well and Golden Whiskey.<br />
Garretstown looks like a very classy horse - though whether he will be suited by bottom-less conditions, is a different matter.<br />
I don’t think the ground will worry Golden Whiskey - but he looks very immature, so both the nature of the race and the Sandown hill, could cause him a problem.<br />
By default, Champagne Well is the one of greatest interest - and he’s fairly priced at 16/1 - but there are just too many dangers in the race, for me to want to tip him…<br />
I could easily list half a dozen more, who could be of interest - but even then, I wouldn’t be confident I would have included the winner !<br />
It should be a fascinating race to watch - and many of the runners will be worth following over fences, next season - but it’s not really a (serious) betting contest…<br />
<br />
<b>2:25</b><br />
<br />
I said last Saturday, when I tipped Papagana, that if I had been up to date with the eye catchers in the forum, she would have been one - and the same is true of Malaya, today…<br />
In truth, that’s not that big a statement, as she caught the eye of many, with her last time out run behind Brio Conte (yet another eye catcher !).<br />
That was in a 2m4f handicap at Ascot, and Malaya travelled really strongly through the race - but was put under minimal pressure in the closing stages.<br />
To an extent, that was under-standable. She had fallen on her 2 previous outings and I’m sure that Harry Cobden didn’t want to put her on the floor again, and completely shatter her confidence.<br />
Her therefore allowed her to pop the final 2 hurdles and jog home !<br />
She still managed to finish fourth - beaten just over 5 lengths - and it’s a little surprising that the handicapper reacted by dropping her rating by a pound.<br />
In truth, she was well handicapped even before he did that.<br />
She comfortably beat Eragon de Chanay at Ascot last March - and that one is now 9lb higher.<br />
Malaya meanwhile, runs from a mark just 3lb higher today…<br />
After the Ascot win, her next 2 runs were at Grade 1 level - suggesting Paul Nichols thinks quite a bit of her !<br />
I don’t think she’ll have an issue with todays ground - or dropping back to 2 miles.<br />
She faces some decent opponents - but you’d expect that in a £75K race.<br />
Call me Lord is the one I fear most - because he’s potentially a graded performer in a handicap. He is also a Sandown specialist - who relishes heavy ground !<br />
On the flip side, he has to give nearly 2 stone to Malaya - and 2 miles is now arguably on the short side for him (he ran over 3 miles, last time out).<br />
Chti Balco is also of moderate interest, at a big price - but more from a back to lay in-running perspective (he’s well handicapped - but is also very exposed).<br />
<br />
<b>3:00</b><br />
<br />
It’s very unusual (almost unique !) to have a bumper as a feature race on a Saturday card - particularly, one restricted to mares !<br />
Even more than the 1:50 race, this isn’t a contest you can really bet in - because most of the runners have huge scope for improvement.<br />
Silver Forever and Whitehotchillifilli head the market - and that may well be correct.<br />
However, it was hard not to be taken by the debut effort of Mystic Dreamer, behind the former, at Ascot - and even on worse terms today, she holds some appeal at around 8/1.<br />
Eyes Right finished fourth in the same race - and whilst on the book, she shouldn’t be able to reverse the form, she is the youngest runner in the field (and therefore the one with the most potential for improvement).<br />
That said, I’m not convinced that she will relish very soft ground…<br />
Clearly, it has to be a watching race (officially speaking) - with Mystic Dreamer probably providing the best option for those who would like a small involvement.<br />
<br />
<b>3:35</b><br />
<br />
I tipped Ami Desbois when he was narrowly touched off over course and distance, last time out - and I considered tipping him again today…<br />
Certainly, I don’t think he is badly handicapped - even off a 4lb higher mark - and he will have no issue with todays conditions.<br />
This is also a drop in class - and he’s a big enough horse to cope with a weight imposition of 11st13lb….<br />
The issue is simply the opposition: Whilst I expect Ami Desbois to run well, I have a feeling that one of his opponents will beat him.<br />
The trouble is, I can’t figure out which one !<br />
Commodore is the obvious one, for Venetia - but it might not be him…<br />
I could make half (or at least quarter !) cases for at least 4 of the runners - and that stops me from supporting Ami Desbois.<br />
I’m sure he will run his race - and at 5/1, he would be a good EW ‘bet to nothing’, if you like that kind of thing.<br />
However, officially speaking, he’s just a Mention…<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Ayr</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>3:20</b><br />
<br />
Saint Leo has only run twice in the UK - and he has caught my eye both times…<br />
The first occasion, was his debut at Carlisle, back in November.<br />
I picked him out in the daily write-up that day, as a horse to be interested in this season - and he showed sufficient in that race, to ensure he remained firmly on my radar.<br />
His next run - and only subsequent one - was in the Castleford chase at Wetherby, on Boxing day.<br />
He travelled trough that race like a class horse - just lacking the change of pace to mount a big challenge.<br />
I’m sure he will be at his peak today - and he has been dropped to a mark of 135 (from an initial mark 10lb higher), which seems very fair.<br />
I think his key requirement is soft ground - and a fast pace - and he should get both this afternoon…<br />
I could tell you that the likes of Granville Island, Forest des Aigles and Clan Legend, will find the trip too short; whilst Charmant has possibly passed his peak.<br />
Tontos Spirit and Treshnish should run their races - but I’ll be staggered if they can cope with Saint Leo, if he’s as good as I think.<br />
I felt similarly about Overland Express a few weeks back - and tragedy struck for him, just as he was about to mount his challenge.<br />
Nothing is every guaranteed in this game - but all thing being equal, I’ll be extremely disappointed if Saint Leo doesn’t win this afternoon.<br />
<br />
<b>4:30</b><br />
<br />
If I could be sure that the ground at Ayr was going to be heavy, I would tip One for Harry in this.<br />
However, the official description is currently ‘soft’ - and whilst I believe there is rain around - and so it might well get worse, I would be guessing…<br />
If you are watching and the ground does look to be desperate, then One for Harry will be worthy of support.<br />
Certainly he is now on a very competitive handicap mark - and the booking of Danny McMenamin, to take off a further 7lb, just adds to his appeal.<br />
It’s the right trip - and the course is fine - but up against some tough rivals - now that he’s at the veteran stage, he will need heavy ground to swing things in his favour…<br />
Of his rivals, then Buster Valentine and Better Getalong, look the 2 most likely to take advantage, if One for Harry doesn’t get ideal conditions.<br />
I wouldn’t particularly want to split the pair, as the former is nearly impossible to get a proper handle on….<br />
<br />
<br />
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Tips</b><br />
<br />
Sand 2:25 Malaya 1pt win 11/2<br />
Ayr 3:20 Saint Leo 2pt win 4/1<br />
<br />
<b>Mentions</b><br />
<br />
Sand 1:50 Champagne Well (O )<br />
Sand 3:00 Mystic Dancer (S )<br />
Sand 3:35 Ami Desbois (O )<br />
Ayr 4:30 One for Harry (C )<br />
<br />
Dobbers<br />
<br />
Sand 2:25 Chti Balco<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-50393001056109225762019-03-18T13:00:00.005-07:002019-03-18T13:00:54.431-07:00Review of the dayIt ended up a bit of a disappointing afternoon - despite me tipping a winner !<br />
<br />
That was because the winner was the shortest price selection on the day - and the winnings from her, didn’t cover the losses from the other tips.<br />
<br />
In truth though, that wasn’t the disappointing aspect…<br />
<br />
As always, I spent a lot of time yesterday studying the form for the feature races - and as those who read the write-up will testify, I was in the right ball park for just about every race.<br />
<br />
However, they were all competitive contests - and rather than spreading the risk a little, I put all of my eggs in one basket for each of the races - and generally, picked the wrong basket !<br />
<br />
In my defence it’s not always easy to put up the right horses at the time I tip, as I demand some margin in the price - and at 9:00, that’s often not there…<br />
<br />
A perfect example of that, was the handicap hurdle at Newbury.<br />
<br />
I was interested in Flying Tiger and Crooks Peak in that particular race.<br />
Despite being heavily backed overnight, Flying Tiger was still an 8/1 shot this morning, which I considered acceptable: whereas Crooks Peak was a 3/1 shot, which I didn’t !<br />
<br />
However, come the off, Flying Tiger had been backed in to a credibly believable 7/2 - and on the back of that, Crooks Peak had drifted out to 11/2.<br />
<br />
At those prices, the tips would have been different - but that was never an option for me…<br />
<br />
As it transpired, both horses travelled very strongly through the race - and looked to have it between them approaching the final flight.<br />
However, Flying Tiger got the hurdle all wrong - and lost his momentum, whereas Crooks Peak jumped it well and battled on for a tenacious win…<br />
<br />
My ‘short list’ would also have hit on the winner of the 2 previous Newbury races - but again, I opted for just one bite of the cherry.<br />
<br />
In the veterans race, I opted for what proved to be another very well backed horse, in the shape of Shanroe Santos.<br />
However, he didn’t have the back class of either Theatre Guide or Caroles Destrier - and when the former blew a winning chance with a dreadful mistake at the last, the latter took advantage…<br />
<br />
In the next race I went with Nightfly but she never featured - whilst the 3 'dangers', Valdez, Javert and San Bendito filled 3 of the first 4 places, with the last named coming home in front…<br />
<br />
In fairness, I didn’t short-list the winner of the Newbury opener, as I only nominated Betameche as a danger to Ritual of Senses = and he finished second.<br />
<br />
Ritual of Senses himself, travelled really strongly to the third last - but then didn’t get home (suggesting that he is not fully recovered from whatever kept him off the course for a couple of years).<br />
<br />
Over at Doncaster, Brian Boranha race a sound race in the feature Grimthorpe chase - but lacked a bit of pace when the tempo quickened…<br />
I have no ‘complaints’ about him !<br />
<br />
And finally, there was the day’s winner !<br />
<br />
Papagana also lacks pace - but when you are being stepped up in trip and there is a sound gallop, that doesn’t tend to matter too much.<br />
<br />
She was never travelling particularly well - but whilst she was in touch, I knew that she had a good chance.<br />
And sure enough, as one by one, her rivals also came under pressure, she kept on responding and it soon became clear that she was going to take a bit of beating.<br />
<br />
Danse Idol tried to challenge after the last - but Papagana always had her measure and ultimately was a comfortable winner.<br />
<br />
At least her win saved the day from being a complete write-off - as I honestly don’t think that would have been deserved…<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
The Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2977298190391957110.post-11460402763725119792019-03-18T13:00:00.001-07:002019-03-18T13:34:26.186-07:00Daily write-up - Mar 2ndThere are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.<br />
<br />
As I inferred in the ‘Plans for the weekend’ email, there are no really big races taking place - they are all on hold until Cheltenham !<br />
<br />
However, there are some reasonable races, which provide some decent betting opportunities - and we all like those !<br />
<br />
The fields are relatively small at both Doncaster and Kelso (particularly, the latter - who understandably feel aggrieved with field sizes, considering the prize money on offer) and so consequently, most of the best bets are on the Newbury card.<br />
<br />
I’ve found tips in all the big races there - plus a couple more at Doncaster.<br />
Here is the rationale behind them…<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Newbury</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>1:30</b><br />
<br />
The presence of Betameche makes this a tough race to get involved with…<br />
The race is for ‘seniors’ (horses of 8 and older) - the idea being that it gives a chance to exposed horses, who keep on getting beaten by unexposed ones !<br />
Betameche is 8 - but he’s only 5 times in his life - and just 3 times over hurdles.<br />
More than that, on his second bumper run, he comfortably beat Sam Spinner and Keeper Hill.<br />
Those 2 are now rated 155 and 144 respectively - and whilst the form can’t be taken literally, it does suggest that Betameche could be thrown in today off a mark of 124 !<br />
That mark is a guess from the assessor, based on his 3 hurdle runs - but there has to be a distance chance, he’s seriously under-estimated the horse…<br />
The trouble is, the betting public haven’t - and a price of 15/8 in a 12 runner handicap, makes no appeal…<br />
Ritual of Senses doesn’t have a lot more experience than Betameche - and he too could prove to be a good deal better than his current mark.<br />
He showed promise as a novice and his fourth in the Gerry Fieldon hurdle, 2 seasons back, is good form.<br />
However, he only ran once more that season - and then wasn’t seen until re-appearing at Warwick, this January.<br />
He ran really well that day, in a Pertemps qualifier, over a 3 mile trip.<br />
It was only in the final half mile of the race that he backed out of things - which was understandable considering his long absence.<br />
The handicapper has dropped him 5lb for that run - and he is cut back in trip by half a mile.<br />
He also sports first time blinkers - and Sam TD takes over in the saddle, from a 7lb claimer…<br />
I’m pretty sure connections will be going for it today - the trouble is, they may have bumped into one, in Betameche !<br />
Despite that, I think it is worth getting involved with the race.<br />
It lacks depth - as there really are only 2 or 3 others, which I could be interested in (A Hares Breath and Nesterenko main amongst them).<br />
I considered saving stakes on Betameche - but 15/8 is too short (though I’m not entirely convinced he will drift !).<br />
Therefore I opted for Ritual of Senses EW.<br />
If he wins - great: if he places - we still make a tiny profit…<br />
<br />
<b>2:05</b><br />
<br />
I do love the veterans races - though they are never easy to read…<br />
Generally, you have to balance falling handicap marks - with diminishing ability - and that’s not an easy thing to do !<br />
10 year olds tend to do well in these races - mainly because they have only just reached the veteran stage - and there are 5 of that age group in this particular contest.<br />
However, 3 of the 5 are making their seasonal debut - and at this point in the season, that suggests there have been issues.<br />
The other 2 are Perform and Shanroe Santos - and I’m quite keen on the chances of the latter…<br />
He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Cheltenham, when chasing home the very well handicapped, Beware the Bear.<br />
He didn’t run as well on his latest outing at Sandown - but I don’t think conditions suited him, that day.<br />
On the plus side, he was dropped 2lb for the run - and that means he competes today off a mark of 135 - just 3lb higher than the one he won from at Fontwell in November.<br />
More than that, Maxime Tissier takes over in the saddle and claims 5lb - so he is arguably back to a winning mark…<br />
I have a slight concern that he may want more of a stamina test than he will get this afternoon - but the presence of Milansbar, will hopefully ensure the race is run at a good pace.<br />
If it is, then I think Shanroe Santos will go very close…<br />
Of the others, then you have to be fearful of both Caroles Destrier and Theatre Guide.<br />
Both have sufficient back class to win - and have proved themselves very effective at todays course and on decent ground.<br />
The Last Samurai is another who could be very dangerous - though he too, has been well found in the market…<br />
<br />
<b>2:40</b><br />
<br />
I don’t think this race is as competitive as the numbers - and prize money - would suggest…<br />
On initial viewing, I struggled to see past Happy Diva - though I could also make half cases for Valdez, Javert and San Benedito.<br />
The trouble is, backing something at 5/1 in a 16 runner handicap, goes against the grain - particularly when I have a slight concern that the horse in question, may have gone past its peak for the season…<br />
Fortunately, delving deeper into the form book, revealed Nightfly - and not only do I think she should be at her peak today, she is also 4 times the price of Happy Diva !<br />
The 2 horses met last time in a conditions race, at Huntingdon.<br />
Happy Diva was much better suited by the race conditions - and ended up a convincing winner.<br />
However, Nightfly ran really well to finish fourth.<br />
She was beaten 9 lengths that day - but gets a 10lb weight pull today, so the two of them should finish almost along side each other this afternoon.<br />
More than that, I think Nightfly can improve for that run (it was her first for 2 months), whereas it struck me that Happy Diva was producing a peak performance.<br />
Whatever, at the respective prices, it’s not hard to see where the value lies !<br />
I do have a slight concern about Nightfly seeing out the trip - so I think it makes sense to back her EW.<br />
That said, I think she is a really good bet - win, lose or draw !<br />
<br />
<b>3:10</b><br />
<br />
I’m not in the habit of tipping horses that halve in price over-night - but I’ve made an exception with Flying Tiger !<br />
As regular readers will know, I’m quite a fan of the horse: I’ve tipped him a few times over the seasons (at least 3 !) - and he’s also been an official eye catcher once or twice !<br />
Suffice to say, he’s a horse I know very well - and he’s a horse who has more than enough ability to win a race such as this…<br />
In pure handicapping terms, that’s obvious, as he runs today from a mark 1lb lower than when he won the 2017 Fred Winter hurdle, at the Cheltenham festival.<br />
More than that, I suspect he ‘s a better horse now - he’s just become very adept at finding ways to lose !<br />
It doesn’t help, that he pulls a lot - so he needs a good pace to chase (which hopefully he will get in todays big field).<br />
He also needs to be ridden with restraint - and that can make him a hostage to fortune.<br />
He’s been badly hampered and unseated on 2 of his last 3 runs (which is very bad luck !).<br />
The wide open spaces and long straight at Newbury, should help in him that regard.<br />
I also think that he will be massively helped by having a professional jockey on board.<br />
I’m a big fan of conditionals - as generally, the weight allowance they get, more than offsets the reduction in ability/experience - but I think Flying Tiger needs stronger handling than most conditionals are capable of…<br />
He’s the kind of horse that will always come with risks - but I think all of the risks have been managed as well as they can be, today…<br />
Last nights 16/1 was a crazy price - this mornings 8/1 was much nearer the mark.<br />
Crooks Peak is the main worry - because he has unlimited potential.<br />
That said, he will need to be pretty good to beat Flying Tiger, if luck smiles on him this afternoon…<br />
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<b>Doncaster</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>3:00</b><br />
<br />
Even before this mornings 2 withdrawals, this looked a 2 horse race, between Danse Idol and Papagarna…<br />
On official ratings, Bonza Girl also has a chance - but she is officially rated 5lb inferior to the main 2 - and her jockey, Rex Dingle, is unable to claim his 5lb allowance.<br />
In small field races, jockeyship can be crucial, so that 5lb is likely to be warranted in this particular contest…<br />
Danse Idol and Papagana won’t lack any assistance from the saddle, so it should really come down to which is the better horse.<br />
And as they have met on their last 2 runs - that should be a relatively easy one to answer.<br />
Danse Idol has come out on top, both times - and with the weights the same today, it’s reasonable to think that will again be the outcome.<br />
However…<br />
The margin between the 2 horses was less last time, than it was when they first met - suggesting that Papagarna is improving slightly faster.<br />
More importantly, Papagarna has been staying on strongly at the end of both races - whilst the shorter trip has looked to be as far as Danse Idol wants to go…<br />
They step up in trip by half a mile this afternoon - and I that could therefore prove crucial…<br />
Of course, it will rely on there being a reasonable pace in the race, enabling Papagarnas apparently superior stamina to come into effect - and unfortunately that’s not guaranteed (and the NRs haven’t helped).<br />
That said, Leighton Aspell is a shrewd enough jockey - and I’m sure he will be aware of the situation.<br />
Hopefully, one of the other 3 runners will provide some pace to the race - but if they don’t he will hopefully take the initiative.<br />
Provided the race is a true test, then I think Papagarna can come out on top.<br />
<br />
<b>3:35</b><br />
<br />
Whilst numerically, there is a disappointing turnout for this race - it is still quite an intriguing puzzle…<br />
A case can be made for all 7 of the runners - and at the odds, I think Brian Boranha is worthy of modest support.<br />
He’s been on a steady improve since switching to fences, 18 months ago - and put up his most impressive performance to date, when winning the Durham National at Sedgefield back on October.<br />
He was then given 3 months off, before returning in the Sky Bet chase, at Doncaster in January.<br />
That was a step up in grade for him - but he travelled through the race in a manner which suggested he was more than up to the job.<br />
In fact, on the turn in, he looked just about the most likely winner - but he didn’t get home…<br />
The trip can’t have been the issue (his previous win was over 5 furlongs further) - so the logical assumption is that he needed the run.<br />
The handicapper has dropped him 2lb, which means he meets the race favourite that day, Dingo Dollar, on improved terms (despite travelling all over him, turning in).<br />
In fairness, Dingo Dollar didn’t seem to run his race that day - and he would be a big danger based on his run in the Hennessey.<br />
It’s also easy enough to make a case for Rockys Treasure, Looking Well and Barney Dwan - though equally, non are bomb proof…<br />
At the end of the day, it comes down to price - and Brian Boranha looks over-priced at around 14/1.<br />
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<br />
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !<br />
<br />
TVB.<br />
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<b>Tips</b><br />
<br />
Newb 1:30 Ritual of Senses 0.5pt EW 8/1<br />
Newb 2:05 Shanroe Santos 1pt win 11/1<br />
Newb 2:40 Nightfly 0.5pt EW 20/1<br />
Newb 3:10 Flying Tiger 1pt win 8/1<br />
Donc 3:00 Papagana 1pt win 5/2<br />
Donc 3:35 Brian Boranha 0.5pt win 16/1<br />
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<b>Mentions</b><br />
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NoneThe Value Bettorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10788088160848379297noreply@blogger.com0