There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Newcastle and
Chepstow in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
With the start of the
Cheltenham festival now just over 2 week away, things are starting to change a
little…
Most of the horses that will run at Cheltenham, should have had their
final prep runs by now - though the quick ground and Equine flu, have caused
some issues…
Certainly, I’m sure that a few of the star names out today,
would not be running in an ideal world (Angels Breath being the most obvious
one).
That creates another level of confusion, as I can’t believe those
horses will be given an unduly hard race, so close to the festival.
If they
win, they will need to win easily…
The lack of rain continues to be an
issue - and again, I suspect some trainers will be running their horses today,
despite the conditions - just to put an edge on them.
Needless to say,
all the second guessing doesn't help with trying to solve the puzzles
!
Despite that, I’ve managed to find 5 tips on the day, across 4 races -
plus I’ve got an opinion on a few more !
Here is the rationale for the
tips, along with my views on the days other main races…
Kempton
1:15
I think it is worth siding with
Rhythm is a Dancer in this…
He won a novice hurdle at Wincanton in November -
and followed up in a novice handicap at the same track, the following
month.
On the back of those 2 victories, he ran in a class 2 open handicap,
again at Wincanton, on Boxing day.
He ran a slightly strange race that day,
one minute appearing to be travelling strongly and the next, under
pressure.
Ultimately, he finished a well beaten fifth - but as he was running
from out of the handicap, he is effectively 3lb better of today.
More
importantly, he will be racing on better ground (it was on the soft side) and
he’s been given a break to freshen him up (there were less than 3 weeks between
his previous 2 runs).
Clearly, the current form of the Paul Nicholls yard is
also a massive positive.
Everything he runs at the moment, seems to either
win - or at least run well - and hopefully Rhythm is a Dancer will continue that
trend.
In terms of his opponents, then most of the dangerous ones appear to
be at the head of the market (as you would expect !).
That said, I could
certainly give Champagne Champ a chance - and he may be worth saving stakes on,
at around 12/1…
1:50
This is quite a tight race - despite
there being only 4 runners.
Bags Groove and Secret Investor, head the market
- and I wouldn’t argue with that.
They met at Wincanton back in November, and
Bags Groove came out on top, by 9 lengths.
However, Secret Investor was
making his chasing debut that day - and he’s 5lb better off at the weights
today.
That should make things much closer between the pair - though whether
it will be sufficient to reverse the form, is a different matter.
Prior to
his most recent run, Bags Groove had looked really good, over fences.
His win
at Wincanton, was sandwiched between 2 equally impressive victories at Ffos Las
and Huntingdon.
He’s a very nimble, clean jumping horse - and those
characteristics will always make him hard to beat - particularly in novice
company.
If he gets an uncontested lead today - and Noel Fehily gets him in
to a rhythm - I doubt his opponents will be able to pass him.
The worry is,
that he was disappointing last time - at Kempton.
Admittedly that was in
grade 1 company - but he just didn’t travel as he has done in his previous
races.
If Harry Fry has got him back, then I think he will win; if he’s not,
then Secret Investor looks the one most likely to take advantage.
However, as
you can’t beat 2/1 on either of them, the options for getting involved are
limited…
2:25
This is a slightly odd race, in as much as
the 3 horses who headed the early market, are all making their UK hurdling
debuts…
Ecco and Red Force One are both running over hurdles for the first
time; and whilst Fusil Raffles, has run over hurdles previously, that was in his
native France.
All 3 are likely to improve for todays the outing - though
that doesn’t mean they can’t win.
It does however mean that they were
probably put in too short - and therefore were worth opposing…
There are a
few options to take them on with - but I eventually plumped for Petit
Palais.
He’s only run once over hurdles, when an impressive winner at
Ludlow.
That track and Kempton, are quite similar (flat, right handed), so he
should be well suited by todays test.
It’s also likely that he possesses a
fair level of natural ability, as he’s a half brother to the 2000 guineas
winners, Galileo Gold !
That certainly suggests that he will be best suited
by quick ground and a relative speed test (which is what he will get this
afternoon).
Of the others, Protektorat, Giving Glances and Beat the Judge,
are all of some interest.
However, I suspect that all 3 are running with a
view to getting them in to the Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham
festival.
I doubt that is on Petit Palais’s agenda.
If he wins, I guess
he could run in the Triumph, but I suspect he is a horse who will be much better
suited to Aintree, rather than Cheltenham.
Anyway, that’s all in the future
!
Hopefully today, he can use his experience to see off the 3 débutantes, and
his natural ability to beat those who have run before.
3:00
This is a very difficult race to get involved with, as Angels Breath
is impossible to support - but almost as difficult to oppose !
He made his
debut in a grade 2 event at Ascot just before Christmas, and I was quite keen to
take him on that day.
It’s unusual for a horse to makes its debut in a graded
race - and he was also sent off a very short favourite.
Ofcourse the reason
he was a strong favourite, was because he is trained by Nicky Henderson and he
has plenty of horses to compare him with.
Clearly Angels Breath shows plenty
at home - and in fairness, he showed quite a lot at Ascot !
He came home 4
lengths clear of his nearest rival, that day - putting up a seemingly impressive
performance.
Time has shown that it maybe wasn’t quite as good as it appeared
at the time - but Nicky Henderson is still talking up the horse - and as a
consequence, he is an 8/11 shot today.
You can’t possibly back him at that
price, because he’s not done anything on the track to warrants it.
However,
Henderson is not inclined to talk up his horses, so its highly likely that Angle
Breath is a big talent…
That might still not be sufficient to get him home
today, in what will be much more of a speed test - particularly with Cheltenham
on the horizon.
Certainly he faces a tough rival , in the shape of Scarlet
Dragon.
He is rated 106 on the flat - and will be well suited by the
conditions of todays race.
I could also give the Henderson second string,
Daphne du Clos, a chance - though it does look as if she is using this race to
prep for Cheltenham.
In the circumstances, it has be be a watching race -
though it’s likely to be a very interesting one…
3:35
I
really wanted to tip Talkischeap in this - but the price has gone…
He was a
7/1 chance when the final declarations came through - and would have been quite
happy with 5/1 or greater.
I really didn’t expect that to be a problem,
particularly with Glen Rocco and Adrian du Pont in opposition.
However, he
was a best price 9/2 first thing this morning - and now you can’t beat
7/2.
You have to draw the line somewhere - and in such a competitive race, I
feel that price is too short…
Ofcourse, everyone has latched on to his form
with Lostintranslation and La Bague au Roi - and it is certainly strong novice
form.
He also has plenty of scope for improvement and should be ideally
suited by conditions.
In short he has ticks in plenty of boxes.
The issue,
is simply the opposition (as well as the price !).
It’s a strong race, in
which all 10 runners can be given a chance of some sort.
I feel that 5/1 is
about the right price for Talkischeap - and whilst it wouldn’t surprise me if he
were to drift to that price at some point, it’s not going to happen in the
window where I can tip…
In terms of his opponents, then I really do think
that all of them can be given a chance of some sort.
Value-wise, then Dedero
Vallis is probably the best bet, at around 12/1 - but I’m not inclined to tip
him purely on the grounds of theoretical value.
It has to be another watching
race…
Chepstow
4:15
I’m
pretty keen on Overtown Express in this.
Those of you who follow the
eye-catchers in the forum will know that I put him up, following his most recent
run at Sandown.
That was his second outing of the season and he travelled
really powerfully until fading from the third last.
My feeling is, that run
should have put him spot on for today.
He actually finished runner up in
todays corresponding race, 12 months ago.
He ran off a 9lb higher mark, that
day - and he also didn’t come in to the race, on the back of such a positive
run.
In the circumstances, it’s hard not to be positive about his claims this
afternoon !
It adds to his case, the fact that he’s running from a mark 3lb
lower than his last winning mark - and he absolutely dotted up that day !
He
also has a decent 3lb claimer in the saddle - so I really do think that
everything is in place for a massive run.
His main opponent today, appears to
be Capeland.
He’s done very well this season - but runs today on the back of
a 50 day absence and following wind surgery.
My feeling is that todays race
is likely to be used to get him spot on for a Cheltenham target.
The other
one that sightly worries me, is Shanahans Turn.
He is arguably well
handicapped - however 2 miles isn’t really his trip and again, he is likely to
be using this race as a stepping stone (this time for Aintree).
Overtown
Express won't be using it as a prep for anything - this is likely to be the peak
of his season.
With so many other things in his favour, that means he simply
has to be supported this afternoon…
Newcastle
2:40
It’s extremely unusual (almost
unique !) for the Eider chase to be run on anything other than very soft ground,
and todays conditions of ‘good to soft’ must be almost unprecedented…
I can
recall occasions when the race has only had 2 or 3 finishers - but it’s going to
be a very different contest this afternoon.
The quick ground is likely to
scupper the chances of a quite a few: Daklondike and last years winners,
Baywing, chief amongst them.
On the flip side, conditions are a real bonus
for some of the others: non more so than favourite, Vincente…
He’s a horse
who has always performed much better on quicker spring ground - and is now back
down to the mark that he has run off, when twice wining the Scottish
National.
As he’s also trained by Paul Nichols and is Sean Bowen’s only ride
on the afternoon - it’s hard to argue with his position at the head of the
market.
The only issue, is a price of 6/1, which leaves no margin for
error…
Rather than side with him, I’ve decide to split stakes on a couple at
bigger prices…
The first is Kimberlite Candy.
He ran really well last
time, when staying on into third at Sandown.
He steps up in trip by a mile
today, which is a big jump.
However, he looks as if it will suit him - and
the ground should help, from a stamina perspective.
It should also help that
he hails from the stable of Tom Lacey - as with 6 winners from his last 13
runners, he could hardly be in better form.
Crosspark is more exposed - but
he also comes from a stable in form (Caroline Bailey).
He also ran really
well last time, when finishing third behind Impulsive Star, in the classic chase
at Warwick.
He’ll need to improve again to win today, but that’s not
impossible - and the fact that Jamie Moore has travelled to Newcastle to ride,
him is another positive.
Plenty of others can be given chances - but
hopefully either Kimberlite Candy or Crosspark, can come home in
front.
Fairyhouse
4:00
The
absence of Presenting Percy has robbed this race of a lot of its interest -
though it is still a decent contest.
Magic of Light is the one that appeals
most - and if I could have secured at least 5/2 (ideally 3/1 !), I would have
tipped her.
She’s been in tremendous form all this season, wining twice and
placing twice, from 4 efforts.
Her rating has increased by 13lb - and the
suggestion is that she’s not finished yet.
Furthermore, she should be
perfectly suited by todays test.
She was beaten last time at Huntingdon, but
that was over half a mile shorter - and she was staying on strongly in the
closing stages.
Again, this is another race where you have to be a little
mindful of what’s on the horizon (whether horses are being prepped for future
targets).
However that shouldn’t be the case with Magic of Light, as she is
being aimed at the Grand National and a win today, won’t affect her rating for
that race.
The only slight concern is that she’s unlikely to be 100% - and
that makes me a little wary about chasing down her price.
That said, I think
she will win, as all of her rivals, apart from Alpha des Obeaux, have even
bigger question marks against them.
He doesn’t - and the race should really
rest between him and Magic of Light…
Here’s hoping for a great day
ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 1:15 Rhythm
is a Dancer 1pt win 15/2
Kemp 2:25 Petit Palais 1pt win 6/1
Chep 4:15
Overtown Express 2pt win 9/2
Newc 2:40 Kimberlite Candy 0.5pt win 9/1
Newc
2:40 Crosspark 0.5pt win 18/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:50
Bags Groove (S )
Kemp 3:35 Talkischeap (P )
Fairy 4:00 Magic of Light (P
)
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