Daily write-up - Apr 5th (Aintree Day 2)

Day 2 of the Aintree Grand National meeting.

The rain yesterday afternoon, turned the ground to soft - and whilst the weather should be much better today, I suspect the ground won’t be !

At least we have a better idea of what we will be facing - even if it’s not what we would have liked !

As I said in the review, yesterday was a frustrating day.

The polarisation of the markets at these big meetings, is getting ridiculous.

I’ve no idea how Road to Rome could be sent off at 11/4 in a 27 runner race over the National fences; or indeed how Minella Melody could be sent of at 6/4 in 20 runner bumper, packed full of unexposed and potentially useful sorts.

Ofcourse, neither horse won, which suggests there should have been value elsewhere in the markets - but I’m not sure that was the case…

The prices of the other runners who had decent chances, were all pretty accurate (so minimal margin) - it’s the speculative ones who are available at ‘value’ prices…

That’s all well and good if you are in it for the long haul, because every now and then a horse will win at 100/1, when it should have been 33/1 - but it’s not really a game we can easily play.

That makes it hard to control the P&L in the way that I’ve done through the early part of the season.

As I said after Cheltenham, I need to think how best to handle these big festivals.
Reducing stakes helps - but I’m not sure it is the full answer.

Anyway, that’s for another day.

For today, we’ve got an excellent set of races - even if betting opportunities aren’t quite so good !

That said, I’ve still managed to find 4 tips, across 3 races.

Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the days other races…


Aintree

1:45

Thee may be 22 runners in this, but I’ll be quite surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top 5 in the betting…
Having opened up at 10/1 yesterday, Tedham has been very well backed and is now a short priced favourite.
The case for him is strong: he’s a young improving horse, who was an impressive winner of a decent handicap last time - and has only been raised 6lb for that win.
It’s not hard to envisage him following up in this - though I’m a little surprised that Jonjo O’Neil Jnr hasn’t been given the ride, to offset the weight rise. Maybe connections feel he has more than enough, in hand of his mark !
He’s the most likely winner of the race - but 7/2 is a woefully short price…
Second favourite is Brio Conti - and there is a chance that he will become the third horse to win at Aintree, that I tipped it at Cheltenham !
Certainly, he ran a huge race at Cheltenham - and the flatter Aintree track should suit him better.
However, he has been raised 2lb for that run; probably had a hard race - and may not be suited by the softening ground.
He clearly has a big chance - but 6/1 is too short to warrant getting involved.
Carnadier finished just behind Brio Conti at Cheltenham - and there should be little between the pair again today. However, he’s another who would prefer quicker ground.
It’s hard to know what ground Esprit Du Large would prefer, as he’s only run 4 times in his life.
However, he’s shown a good level of form - and was entered for the grade 1 novice hurdle, on tomorrows card.
His opening mark of 132 looks reasonable - but I expect the betting will prove an accurate guide on his chance… 
The final one of the ‘big 5’ is Mont Des Avaloirs…
Like Brio Conti, he is trained by Paul Nicholls and he ran really well at Newbury in November, when a fast finishing third in the Gerry Fieldon hurdle.
He was arguably unlucky not to win that day - and gets to run today, off exactly the same mark. That’s because he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs - but stepped up in trip this afternoon, I expect him to do much better…
Unlike his stablemate, he should relish the underfoot conditions - and Lorcan Williams takes off a useful 5lb.
At 12/1, he looks the value bet, amongst the fancied horses…
Away from the head of the market, I could give half chances to Wait for Me, Joke Dancer and Doctor Dex - but as I said in the introduction, chasing theoretical value at the big festivals, is a high risk strategy !

2:20

I’m quite keen on Felix Desjy in this.
His most recent run was in the Supreme hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, and turning in, it looked as if he was going to give Klassical Dream a real race.
However, his petrol gauge began to flicker ‘empty’, on the run to the final flight - and he was passed by Itchy Feet (plus a couple of others) on the run in.
He eventually finished fifth - just in front of Aramon - but I think there is an argument that he was the second best horse in the race…
Certainly, I’m optimistic that Aintrees flatter track will enable him to reverse the form with Itchy Feet - whilst I can’t see any reason why he shouldn’t again beat Aramon.
That said, this is not a 3 horse race !
The other 4 runners can all be given a chance - though it’s not easy to accurately assess their respective ability.
On official ratings, Southfield Stone is the best of them - but lines through Grand Sancy and Angels Breath, suggest he shouldn’t beat Felix.
Similarly collateral form lines suggest that Rouge Vif shouldn’t be quite good enough - though I do think he will appreciate todays track.
As a consequence, Precious Cargo and Winston C could emerge as the biggest dangers - certainly, they are the hardest ones to dismiss.
However Precious Cargo is plenty short enough in the betting at 7/2, on the back of a couple of wins in novice hurdles: Whilst Winston C only just won a handicap last time off a mark of 137 - and he’ll need to show significant improvement (which he may well do), if he’s going to get involved this afternoon.

2:50

All things being equal, Topofthegame should take a world of beating in this…
He was an impressive winner of a red hot running of the RSA chase at Cheltenham, last time - and based on that form, he is the best horse in this race by some margin.
He stepped up to reach that level, but even on the form of his previous second to La Bague au Roi in the Feltham chase at Kempton, he is still the one to beat.
In fairness, that form doesn’t give him much in hand of Lostintranslation - and there is a chance that the latter will improve for todays step up in trip - but he will need to !
Furthermore, Lostintranslation himself, is a fair way ahead of the other runners (10lb+, on official figures) - so this race appears a bit too straightforward, to warrant getting involved with…
The only caveats are: if his efforts at Cheltenham have taken the edge off Topofthegame (and Lostintranslation); or if the ground has turned really soft.
Heavy ground could certainly open things up.
I would expect Topofthegame to handle it - but I wouldn’t be so sure about Lostintranslation.
It would also greatly improve the chances of Chris’s Dream and Top Ville Ben - both of whom are real mud lovers.
However, as things stand this morning, I don’t expect the ground to be heavy (just soft) - and I’ve no reason for thinking that Topofthegame won’t run his race (or indeed Lostintranslation).
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race…

3:25

This is another race where it’s hard to see an angle…
Politologue and Min fought out a tight finish to the corresponding race 12 months ago - and both look likely to run well again this afternoon.
That said, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they were eclipsed by Waiting Patiently…
He’s met Politologue twice previously - and come out on top on both occasions.
He’s also likely to be better suited by todays conditions (2m4f and soft ground).
The trouble is, he didn’t look entirely committed last time - and the application of first time cheek pieces, is a worrying development…
I still think he is the most likely winner - but you don’t want too many doubts if you are backing a 2/1 shot.
It’s hard to make a much of a case for the other 4 runners:
Top Notch looks best of them - but he has regularly shown himself to be a few pounds shy of this level:
Hells Kitchen is not as exposed - and has been a big improver this season. However, he seemed to have his limitations exposed last time, when finishing fourth in the Champion chase (well adrift of Politologue).
He could improve again, for todays step up in trip - but he will need to.
Gods Own is an admirable horse: but he’s better going right handed; would prefer quicker ground - and is also past his peak ! Whilst Woodlands Opera shouldn't be good enough - and would prefer quicker ground…
In summary, Waiting Patiently should win this - provided he performs to his best.
Whether he represents any value at 2/1 however, is a different matter…

4:05

It’s always disappointing when you really fancy a horse, only to find out that everyone else does as well !
I’ve had Call it Magic on my radar since the 5 day declarations for this race were released - I was just trying to pick my moment to tip him.
As you all know, I won’t tip in to immature markets, because I realise that many of you won’t be able to get on (and those who can, will be risking account restrictions).
I therefore patiently waited until there was proper liquidity on the exchanges (over £1K to back on BF) before I tipped him.
Unfortunately, by that point, literally every industry tipster I’d seen output from, had also tipped him ! (most aren’t quite so bothered about when they issue the tips !)
As a result his price was under serious pressure - though hopefully you all managed to at least secure 8/1 (10/1 minus a 20% margin).
In terms of the case for him, then it is quite blatant (which is why he’s so popular !).
He was a massive eye catcher over todays course, when finishing fourth in the Becher chase, back in November.
He tanked through the race that day, jumping from fences to fence - and turning for home, it simply appeared a question of how far he would win by.
However, his stamina gave out - and he weakened on the run in.
Todays race is over 5 furlongs less - so stamina won’t be an issue ! In fact, he is more likely to lack tactical speed !
Hopefully that won’t be case. Certainly he ran well enough on his only subsequent outing, when second at Fairyhouse - and that was over a trip just 2 furlongs further than today.
If he does get into the same rhythm that he got into in November, then there is no doubt that he is going to be very hard to beat…
That said, with 27 runners over the National fences, there's a fair chance that luck will play a part.
Therefore I think it is worth having a second string to the bow…
Ballyhill has never run over the National fences - though he has won over the Mildmay course.
That was in December - and he won really impressively.
He came up short on his next outing - but subsequent events showed that his third place to Siruh du Lac and Janika, was top class handicap form, as the pair went on to fight out the finish to the Plate at the festival.
Janika re-opposes Ballyhill this afternoon - but his subsequent exploits mean he is a stone worse off at the weights.
Janika is also a relatively small horse, so having to lug round 11st12lb this afternoon, is likely to prove a real challenge for him.
In short, I expect Ballyhill to come out best of the pair…
Outside the 3 mentioned, there are plenty who can be given half chances - but non who stick out.
Adrien du Pont, Activial, Flying Angel and Henryville are all capable of putting in big runs.
That said, I’m happy enough to side with Call it Magic and Ballyhill.

4:40

I did intend to get involved with this race, simply because I think that Champ should be taken on…
I felt the same about him at Cheltenham - and whilst I was ultimately proven right, he ran much better than I expected, when finishing second in the Ballymore.
Based on that form, he has a favourites chance this afternoon - however, I can’t see him appreciating todays step up in trip, on rain softened ground.
He’s a very keen going horse - and I’ll be most surprised, if his stamina lasts out…
The trouble is, even with him out of consideration, this looks like a particularly hot contest.
Dallas des Pictons probably sets the standard - even though he is stepping up from handicap company.
However, I’ll be a little surprised if there aren’t one or two better than him…
Emitom is the obvious one - and he would certainly hold plenty of appeal, if his defeat of Lisnagar Oscar could be taken at face value.
That said, Downtown Getaway, Walk Away, Trevelyns Corn and Ardlethen, are 4 others who have shown themselves decidedly useful - and also have limitless potential.
Whist even a few of the rank outsides, couldn’t be dismissed with total confidence…
My plan had been to tip Walk Away - as it strikes me, potentially significant, that Henry de Bromhead is prepared to pitch a once raced horse into a contest of this quality.
I certainly feel that he is a particularly interesting runner - however, I’m just not convinced that he should be a tip.
In a race where most of the runners have a chance - and the winner is likely to show significantly improved form - I think a watching brief is the best policy…

5:15

This is not a race on which I have a particularly strong view (even less so than the mares bumper, yesterday).
That said, I was very taken by the win of Santa Rossa at the Dublin racing festival - and with Finnie Maguire over to take the ride, I would be unlikely to look too much further, if I did play in the race.
Certainly, I prefer him to the other market leader, McFabulous - accepting that he may just have had an off day, when disappointing badly at Cheltenham in November.
Of those at bigger prices, Thebannerkingrebel makes most appeal.
He’s not run since being pulled up in last seasons Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival.
However, he was unbeaten in his 2 runs prior to that - so clearly has plenty of ability.
A recent wind op hints at the cause of his issues - and if that procedure has sorted him out, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a very big race.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Aint 1:45 Mont Des Avaloirs 0.5pt win 12/1
Aint 2:20 Felix Desjy 1pt win 6/1
Aint 4:05 Call it Magic 1pt win 10/1
Aint 4:05 Ballyhill 0.5pt win 11/1

Mentions

2:50 Topofthegame (P )
3:25 Waiting Patiently (P )
4:40 Walk Away (S )
5:15 Santa Rossa (S )