Sunday 7 April 2019

Daily write-up - Apr 6th (Aintree Day 3)

Day 3 of the Aintree Grand National meeting - Grand National day !

It’s also the final day of the 2018-19 TVB season.

In a way, I can’t believe how fast the season has passed: yet at the same time, it seems an absolute age, since Out Sam provided the first winning tip of the season.

It’s the seventh season I’ve completed - and I will look back on it as a good one.

It’s not had the same highs as many of the previous seasons - but it’s not had many lows, either.
I’ve kept tight control of the P&L throughout - something I hope you guys appreciate !

Anyway, I’ll summarise all my thoughts - along with the figures - in an end of season report,which I’ll look to produce in the next couple of weeks.
I also plan to create another survey - so I can get feedback from all of you on how you think things have gone.
The previous surveys have helped shape the service, so hopefully you can each find a few minutes to complete it…

Anyway, that’s in the future - first we’ve got today to enjoy !

Unbelievably, after Thursdays deluge, they have apparently selectively watered parts of the Grand Notational course !
How it will ride, is anyones guess...

As has been the case for the past 2 days, I’ve not gone mad with the tips.
As I keep on saying, with the racing so competitive - and the markets so accurate - I’m disinclined to force things.

Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 6 on the day - across 5 races.

For the final time this season, here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the other races…


Aintree

1:45

I had originally planned to swerve this race.
The 3 big field handicaps that took place on the first 2 days of the meeting, were all won by horses which were backed off the boards, close to the off.
Non of them had form that warranted such punts - unless you were in the know !
This is a similar race - and that trend makes me feel a little uncomfortable about getting involved with it !
However, I just couldn’t resist a small play on Burbank…
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if he were very well backed - certainly, I suspect the market will advise on our fate before the race is run !
He’s a horse who has not seen much action over the past 2 seasons.
He ran really well to finish seventh in last seasons Coral Cup - and again, ran better than his finishing position suggests, in this season Coral cup.
Aside from that, he’s only been seen twice: once last spring - and then in a novice chase this January.
Consequently, it’s not easy to get a handle on him - but his Cheltenham runs show that he has plenty of ability.
In fact, two seasons back, he ran fourth in the Grade 1 Ballymore novice hurdle at festival - and on that form, he is thrown in today off a mark of just 138.
In fairness, his mark doesn’t look bad, based on his Coral cup runs. He was 5lb higher when he ran in the race last season - and 3lb higher this time round.
However, that’s not the big attraction with him…
The big attraction is his connections.
Firstly, he is trained by Nicky Henderson - who has an excellent record at the Grand National meeting; but more importantly, he is owned by Trevor Hemmings, who bought the horse last spring.
Hemmings has always been a huge supporter of Aintree - and I have little doubt that Burbank will have been primed to run at this meeting.
With that in mind, his run in the Coral cup looks even better - as it was probably just a prep race for this !
The fitting of first time blinkers certainly suggests intent - and whilst that is not something I generally like to see when a horse is being stepped up in distance (which is the case here), I’m prepared to make an exception in this instance.
In short, we have a potentially well handicapped horse: who is still in his prime; trained by a master trainer - and targeted at a race.
At 20/1, it would be rude not to at least have a small investment !
In terms of dangers, then needless to say, there are plenty !
It’s not hard to understand the appeal of Cheltenham winner, Sire du Berlais, with Jonjo O’Neil Jnr taking over in the saddle.
However, even if you ignore his allowance, the horse is 5lb higher than at Cheltenham - and had a very hard race there.
He’s easy enough to pass, at 4/1.
Of the others, the Aux Ptits Soin is of some interest - even though he probably has little in hand of his mark.
Coolanly may be better handicapped; whilst Flemcara was my original main fancy for the race.
He was impressive when winning at Exeter (and holds Poker Play on that run) - and can be excused a poor effort at Cheltenham (where a few things went wrong).
He could be worth a small unofficial saver…

2:25

I’m quite keen on Kateson in this - and I don’t really understand why he’s such a big price…
I say that - but I kind of do…!
He ran disappointingly last time - and a poor recent performance tends to have more of an effect on prices than it should.
Of course we have to be able forgive a poor run - but in this instance I don’t find that difficult to do, as Kateson was being stepped up in trip and raced too keenly.
He’s back down in distance today - and whilst I would have fancied him even more if the rain had continued to fall, I’m reasonably confident he will get away with good to soft ground.
That is how it was riding when he ran Champ close at Newbury in December.
The form of that run was advertised by the winner yesterday - and the bizarre thing is that Kateson finished a length ahead of Brewinupastorm in that race.
There is no reason why that form should be reverse today - yet Brewinupastorm is 3/1 fav for todays race.
That’s because he subsequently ran a fine fourth at Cheltenham - but to my mind, the fact he had a hard race 3 weeks ago, is a negative to his chances - not a positive !
If the 2 horses were the same price this afternoon, I’d want to be with Kateson - so at more than 3 times the odds, it’s a no brainer !
Of the others, then I am most fearful of Angels Breath - though that is more on potential/reputation than on anything he’s achieved on the course.
Chosen Mate is not easy to get a handle on - and he’s the other one who would concern me…
All of the remaining runners will need to step up, if they are to trouble Kateson.
Make no mistake, he’s a very good bet - in fact, I suspect I should have staked him more aggressively…
Let’s hope I live to regret that :)

3:00

The key to this race, is this seasons Arkle chase, at Cheltenham.
The top 5 in the betting all ran in that race - with Us and Them, coming out best of the quintet.
He finished second - and whilst he would never have won, he might have finished a little closer to the winner, if he’d not belted the very first fence.
That said, it was down to his stamina that he did manage to finish second - so the quicker Aintree track is unlikely to help his cause.
Clondaw Castle finished 5 lengths behind Us and Them, in fourth place - but that doesn’t tell the story.
Rounding the home turn, he had kicked clear with eventual winner, Duc des Genievres - and the race looked to concern the pair.
From that point, Duc Des Genievres powered clear - but there was little doubt regarding which was the second best horse in the race.
At least of those that finished !
The trouble with the Arkle, was that it was a messy race.
Glen Forsa was an early faller - and Kalashnikov was brought down by the fall of Ornua.
With Lalor seemingly having an off day - it is possible to question the strength of the form.
That said, the winner looked very good - and Clondaw Castle gave him a good race.

Ofcourse, there is no way of knowing how Ornua would have fared if he had stood up - and he could be a danger today.
As could Lalor - provided you are prepared to ignore his run.
His form at Aintree is excellent - so if he does bounce back, he could be hard to beat.
However, there are ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ with them both - and that’s not the case with Clondaw Castle.
The other issue for Ornua, is that he likes to lead - and that’s also true for Knocknanuss.
They did each other no favours in the Arkle - and that could easily be the case again this afternoon.
Destrier and Caid du Lin are the only runners in todays race who didn’t compete in the Arkle.
I couldn’t completely discount either - but I suspect they won’t quite good enough.

3:40

If Apples Jade is back to anywhere near her best, she will win this - and win it easily.
This is not a strong race - and Apples Jade is a top class mare.
At her peak, I would strongly fancy her to beat this field off level weights - in receipt of 7lb, she would be something of a certainty !
However…
She ran a lamentable race last time in the Champion hurdle.
She was sent off favourite that day - but was never travelling.
Apparently she scoped dirty after the race - and if she simply had a bug - and it’s now cleared up, then all should be good.
It’s a worry though.
She lost her form last spring - and the fear is the same thing might be happening this year.
Certainly it’s hard to back her at 6/4 - even though I wouldn’t want to oppose her…
What I really want to do, is tip Kilbricken Storm without Apples Jade in the race - but I’m not prepared to do that - officially speaking, anyway !
I pride myself on the fact that it should be possible for all of my subscribers to follow every tip I issue - if they wish.
And betting w/o the favourite is not a bet that you all could place.
However, that’s why I produce a write-up - so I can explain situations like this - and let each of you make up your own mind on whether you get involved.
In terms of the case for him: then as I said, this is not a strong race.
Sam Spinner sets the standard for the remainder - and well as he ran at Cheltenham, I’d be more than happy to take him on.
Kilbricken Storm also ran in that race - and shaped really well until the home turn.
Apparently he had been held up in his work prior to the race, so I suspect he will have come on for it.
If he has, then he should be right in the mix this afternoon.
Again, first time blinkers is an interesting move - and whilst I would have preferred softer ground for him, I think he will get away with it.
Nothing else really appeals of the others - so if Kilbricken Castle can run to the level I think, then I suspect he will go very close indeed.

4:20

I tipped On Tour in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and I can’t resist getting involved with him again today.
He was unlucky to bump into a progressive young horse at the top of his game, last year - and whilst there is a chance the same thing could happen again today, it’s a risk I’m prepared to take !
Certainly, it looks to me as if On Tour has been targeted at this race.
He’s a horse who runs best fresh, so it’s a positive that he’s not been seen for 70 days.
That was when disappointing in the Skybet chase at Doncaster - but as a result of that, his mark was dropped 3lb.
That means that he runs today off a mark of 130 - 7lb lower than 12 months ago.
In fairness, he is now 11 - so possibly in decline (and certainly not improving !).
However, it’s definitely a mark he can do damage off - so the handicapper better hope he’s not writing him off prematurely !
The thing about On Tour, is that he has an incredible record at Aintree (on the Mildmay course).
His 3 visits have resulted in his 3 best career performances: in addition to last years second placing, he has also beaten Master Dee and finished second to Thomas Brown.
For whatever reason, he seems to love the place - and if he runs to the same level this afternoon, then he is going to go very close…
That said, this is potentially a very strong contest.
3 progressive novices head the betting in the shape of Kildisart, Debece and Mister Malarky.
All have already shown very strong form - and have the potential to improve further. They won’t be easy to beat.
That said, Kildisart and Mister Malarky have both had busy seasons - and ran in tough races at Cheltenham, so may not be at their peak.
Consequently, Debece is possibly the one to beat - and he also looks to have been aimed at this race.
Maybe his younger legs will be too much for On Tour - or maybe his inexperience will catch him out !
Only time will tell !

5:15

I don’t plan to write much about the Grand National - because I’m sure you can all read plenty about it, if you so wish !
Suffice to say, Tiger Roll will take a lot of beating - and whilst 9/2 is too short for any horse in the Grand National, it’s an understandable price.
Rathvinden is a worthy second favourite - but again, at price of 8/1 leaves no margin for error - particularly as he’ll have to beat Tiger Roll !
If either of those 2 win, I think we have to just shrug out shoulders.
In truth, I was half tempted to leave the race alone from a tipping perspective.
I’m sure you’ve all got your own ideas on who will win the race - so you don’t really need me to offering an opinion.
That said, I do think there are a couple in the race who offer genuine value - and I’ve therefore decide to get involved despite it being the Grand National - not because of it !
The first is Pleasant Company.
He finished second in the race last year - and in another couple of strides, would have won.
He meets Tiger Roll on 2lb better terms this time - so on the book, he should beat him.
He’s only run twice since last year - and shown nothing - but that is of no concern !
Today is clearly the day for him - and the way Willie Mullins horses have run this week, he simply has to be backed at 20/1.
The other one is Dounikos…
He is in danger of becoming the most tipped TVB horse ever - but I’m sticking with him !
The thing is, I suspect he’s a top class horse (graded level).
Certainly, his run at last years Dublin festival, when an unlucky 4th to Monalee, Al Boom Photo and Invitation Only suggests he could be top class.
Al Boom Photo obviously went on to win this years Gold Cup, whilst Monalee is now rated 163 - and the ill fated Invitation Only, was rated 161.
off 154 today, Dounikos could easily have 10lb in hand of his mark.
He showed last time,when wining the Irish Natiional trial at Punchestown that extreme trips are no issue - and he also showed that he was back in form.
Gordon Elliott runs 13 in todays race - so it strikes me as significant that stable jockey Jack Kennedy rides this one.
A 33/1 shot - I don’t think so !
As for the rest of the runners in the race - well, I’ll let other people make the case for them :)

6:20

I quite like the look of Scheu Time in this - but unfortunately, so does everyone else !
As with Call it Magic yesterday, the case for him is a little bit too obvious…
He would have won the corresponding race last year, if not falling at the last - and off the same mark today, with Jonjo Jnr in the saddle, he is going to take a bit of beating.
The trouble is, he’s shown very little in the interim - and a price of 4/1 in a 22 runner race, leaves no margin for error (in fact, it is too short !).
That said, I’m not sure what I would oppose him with.
Flashing Glance is probably the most interesting one: though I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of Venetias going very close (she runs Pink Legend and Subcontinent).
In truth, this is a race where I suspect the market will tell the tale - and consequently I don’t want to get involved.
If you’ve got any energy left after the Grand National, I suggest you watch the market and back the horse which halves in price in the final 5 mins before the off !


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Aint 1:45 Burbank 0.5pt win 20/1
Aint 2:25 Kateson 1pt win 10/1
Aint 3:00 Clondaw Castle 1pt win 5/1
Aint 4:20 On Tour 0.5pt win 14/1
Aint 5:15 Pleasant Company 0.5pt win 20/1
Aint 5:15 Dounikos 0.5pt win 28/1

Mentions

Aint 3:40 Kilbricken Storm (w/o Apples Jade)

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