End of season report

Overview

As always, I’ll begin the season review with the headline figures:

For the 2018-19 season (Nov 1st – Apr 6th) a total of 190 tips were issued across 162 races, with 155.25pts staked.

If you had managed to secure the price advised in the tips email, then you would have achieved a profit of 41.16pts (26.5% ROI).

The ROI is a little down on the 6 year average for the service - and is slightly boosted by BOG (the profit is 37.74pts without it).
However, there were many occasions when the advised price could be beaten at the time of issue - and the tips were all issued at a time when it should have been relatively easy to get on.

In short, I think the figure is a fair representation of what should have been achievable - and this is backed up by the fact that the figure for the season at BSP, is similar to that at advised prices.

If you had taken BSP, to advised stakes, on all of the tips, then before commission, you would have made a profit of 31.24pts (20.1% ROI).

Again, that number is a little lower than I would have hoped - and those who have been paying close attention will have a good idea of the main reason !
The spring festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree, had a negative impact on the seasons profits - the former in particular.
So much so, that I think they warrant their own section in the report - which I will come to later..!


Tips Analysis

As I’ve said previously, I like to monitor how the tips perform in terms of finishing positions, as it helps give me a feel for whether they were particularly ‘lucky’ - or ‘unlucky’.
During the season, the following placings were achieved:

1st – 28
2nd – 16
3rd – 23
4th – 11

The suggestion from this is that the tips were lucky - but that obviously can’t be right, because TVB is never (OK - rarely) lucky !

Almost exactly 25% of the selections finished first or second, which is bang on my target.
Whilst just over 41% of selections finished in the first 4.
I’m not too worried about this number (because I tip very few horses EW) - but it is still close enough, to my target of 50%.

The other measure of ‘luck’ that I use, is how many of the tips that traded at 2.1 or less, subsequently went on to win the race.

This season, there were 46 horses traded at 2.1 or less (all of them actually traded at 2 or less).

28 of these won – 5 more than would have been expected with ‘average’ luck.

The suggestion again, is that the tips were ‘lucky’ during the season - or alternatively, that the in-running odds aren’t as accurate an indicator as they used to be…

I suspect it is a bit of both.
Certainly, I don’t think we experienced much bad luck - aside from some unfortunate falls/brought downs, in the final few weeks of the season.


In terms of the races that I tipped in: then 29 of the 190 tips were in races run in Ireland - and they yielded a slight loss (though there were 4 odds-on losers, as against 3 winners - so they were probably just a bit ‘unlucky’).

Of the remaining 161 tips: 85 were in class 1 races (over half) – with 47 in class 2; 24 in class 3 and 5 in class 4.

The tips in class 1 & 2 races, yielded a big profit (55pts) - whilst there were only 2 winning tips in class 3 races - which as a result, recorded a loss of nearly 14pts…

As with last season, very few tips, crashed in price.
That is simply a result of tipping in better class races - and only when the market has stabilised.

Just 2 tips across the entire season, halved in price (advised v BSP) - and neither of them won.
In fact, only 2 winning tips shortened in price by more than 40% (Beware the Bear and San Pedro de Senam); whilst 12 of the 28 winning tips (nearly half) had a BSP longer that the advised price.

The majority of the winning tips had a BSP within 20% of the advised price - which again is testament to tipping into relatively strong, stable markets.
This strongly suggests that the TVB edge is not based on price ‘ricks’…


One other point worth noting is that only 3 of the 28 winning tips had an advised price of greater than 10/1.
Considering 83 of the tips had an advised price of greater than 10/1, this is a bit concerning !
Backing tips with an advised price of greater that 10/1, resulted in a loss of 23.75pts - and it would have been worse, if it weren’t for the variable staking (most of the tips were just 0.5pt win).

I think the reason is that by the time I tip, most of the big priced horses which have a chance, have already been backed.
If they are still big prices at 9:00 on race day, it is generally for good reason !

Obviously this is a little disappointing, as historically, the TVB service has done well with big priced horses.
This season, virtually all of the profits were from horses in the price range 5/1-10/1.

Those shorter than 5/1 came out about level (I think the issue here, is that ‘luck’ starts to play a bigger part, percentage-wise).

For those who are interested, I’ll add a spreadsheet to the main website, detailing of all the season tips, in the next few days…


The evolution of the TVB subscriber profile

When TVB started in 2012, it was clearly a service for NH ‘enthusiasts’.

It was built around a comprehensive (and often entertaining !) write-up - and whilst there were ‘official tips’ - the main value of the service was in the write-up…

Certainly, back then, many of the guys on the service managed to secure bigger profits from selectively following the Mentions - and interpreting the write-ups - than they did from following the tips.

In part, that was because I didn’t worry too much about which races I tipped in - or when I issued the tips (so the profits from the official tips, weren’t always easy to achieve).

Obviously the tip results provide the headline for the service.
They are the only true measurable - and can also be compared with other services.

The tips results have always been good - and over time, that has caught the attention of a second group of followers - the ‘investors’.

In the early days, I wasn’t keen on letting Investors on to the service - because so much of the service value was in the write-up (which requires time and an interest in the racing, in order to unlock).
However, I’ve relented a little with this, over the past couple of years - as the change of service scope (to focus on big races), has meant that results from the official tips are now much more scaleable, than they were in the past.

This season saw me increase my subscriber base by over 50% - with a number of the new guys ‘investors’, rather than ‘enthusiasts’.

This probably caused one or two issues with price crashes during the first few weeks of the season, but I took some actions just after Christmas and my feeling is that the same issues didn’t occur during the second half of the season (you will have the opportunity to confirm/deny this, in the survey !)

As the write-ups/Mentions etc. haven’t changed much since the early days, the service is now in a position where it supports 2 groups of subscribers: ‘enthusiasts’ and ‘investors’ - and they sit side by side, feeding off the same analysis.

The occasional compromise is necessary: for example, with regard to tip timings (I need sufficient time to produce the write-up) - but generally, I don’t believe that the blend has resulted in many issues.

Obviously, as an enthusiast myself, I’m hoping that I will be able to convert some of the investors (not least because I think the enthusiasts make more from the service !) - but whereas I was once committed to an enthusiasts only service, that’s not now the case…

I’m sure that each of you know which camp you primarily sit in (it’s not really an ‘either/or’ thing) - but I thought it worth me explaining how I view things, as it might help you better understand certain actions that I take.

Generally speaking, the more subscribers I have on the service, the easier it is for me to justify putting in the required time and effort - and the less I need to charge.

This should obviously benefit everyone - provided that non of the key aspects of the service, are negatively affected…


The spring festivals - in particular, Cheltenham

A couple of seasons ago, I made the decision to stop tipping in minor midweek races because I didn’t think it could be done profitably - and I now think the same is true for the Cheltenham festival…

The problem with Cheltenham, is that it has become too dominant.

Most of the best horses are targeted specifically at the meeting (many of them, sacrificing the rest of their season) - and even the biggest trainers now target horses at the handicaps.

All of the races are also picked over and analysed, to such an extent, that the markets are incredibly accurate.
With the bookmakers over-rounds, that makes it nearly impossible to find a profitable angle…

Many of the races have become too simple to assess - and the markets accurately reflect the likely results.

This season, just 11 of the 28 races were won by horses at double figure prices.
When you consider that most of the races have 20+ runners, that tells a tale.

To an extent, it’s understandable with the conditions races (the best horses can be expected to win, most often) - but it’s also becoming the case with the handicaps.

Of the 10 handicaps runs at the meeting, 6 were won by horses at 6/1 or less.
When 20+ runners go to post, that’s always going to make things hard for a ‘value bettor’ !

Furthermore, one of the winners was a totally unconsidered 66/1 chance - meaning that effectively only 3 of 10 handicaps, could have been solved in the manner that I would use to solve similar races during in the season (ie. ‘value’ selections)

In the circumstances, it is maybe not surprising that the TVB tips recorded a near 8pt loss on 17pts staked at the meeting.

In fact, if you took the Cheltenham festival out of the seasons results, it would leave a profit of 48.91pts on 136.25pt staked (ROI 36%): BSP profit of 39.69 pts (ROI 29%) - which is more in line with results from previous seasons (when Cheltenham didn’t have such a negative impact).

Ofcourse, if I felt this season was just a one off, then I wouldn’t be inclined to take any action - however, I feel it is a trend that has been developing for at least 5 seasons, so I feel that action should to be taken…

With regard to Aintree, then whilst there are similarities - and I think things moving in the same direction (there were some very well backed winners) - then unlike the markets for the Cheltenham races, most of the Aintree markets only exist for a day or 2 (so aren’t as accurate) and there also isn’t quite the same prestige for the races (so they aren’t targeted to quite the same degree)...

That said, the TVB tips also recorded a loss at Aintree (3pts on 10pts staked) - and if you take both festivals out of the seasons figures it leaves a profit of 52.16pt on 126pts staked (ROI 41.39%): BSP profit of 44.94pts (ROI 35.6%).

Obviously, Cheltenham holds significant appeal for the enthusiasts - but as an investment vehicle, I really don’t think it works any more.
Consequently, I will be looking to handle it differently, next season…


Conclusions and next season

Last season, when I reached this point, I didn’t have a lot to say !
And whilst I’ve got a couple of ideas which will hopefully improve things a little for next season - I think that service remains, very close to where I want it to be.

In a way, that’s not too surprising, after 7 successful seasons.
I’ve tweaked plenty of things along the way - but the base product is now well established.

In terms of the changes that I think should be made:

The first of them, is covered in the previous section - I don’t think that I should offer official tips for the Cheltenham festival.

That’s not to say that I shouldn’t offer views on the races - in fact, I would intend to cover the races more extensively than I currently do !
However, my thoughts will be offered in the form of ‘opinions’ designed for the enthusiasts - as opposed to tips, for the investors.

Specifically, I plan to cover more of the Cheltenham races in an ante-post section in the forum.
Realistically, it won’t be possible for everyone to back selections that I put up ante-post (the markets aren’t sufficiently strong).
But some people will be able to (those with conventional bookmaker accounts) - and hopefully people will generally find them of interest.

I would also intend to preview the races during Cheltenham week - but more as I currently preview races on the midweek blog.
There will be ‘selections’ - but no official tips.

The only other change I plan to make for next season, is that I intend to tip less long priced horses.
To an extent, this is a note to myself - but I do think it is getting too hard to make outsiders pay (certainly, in the races/at the times that I issue the tips).

Aside from that, the plan would be for things will stay broadly the same.

I’m happy with most of the tips I issued during the season; I’m also happy with the content of the write-ups - and the timings of both its issue and that of the tips.
I might make a few changes to the midweek blog - but I think it serves its purpose - in a low key way !
And whilst I would like to see more activity in the forum - that’s largely out of my control.

In short, I’m content that most aspects of the service are roughly where I want them to be…


I think that just about covers everything - apart from the obligatory thanks, to those who help make the service what it is.

Chief amongst the supporting cast - as I’m sure you are all aware - is Chris.
Not only does he drive the forum, via his ‘System bets’ and ‘Sprinters’ - he also provides me with extensive trainer data, which helps enormously with the selection process for the tips.
It’s fair to say, that TVB wouldn’t be the same service without Chris’ input - and his efforts are greatly appreciated (and I know that’s not just by me).

Others worthy of special mention, are Francis and Neil - both of whom input to Chris’ system bet thread.
Also, Dave, who again ran the December Naps competition, and provides behind the scenes support: Craig, who has established a successful Syndicate betting thread - which I’m sure will continue to grow, next season; and Clinton, who set up a Bookmakers thread, which I know a number of you have found very valuable.

Thanks to each of you, for giving something back to TVB

Anyway, I think that’s just about covers everything.
The satisfaction survey will be with you soon - but aside from that, you won’t hear from me again until the beginning of October, when I’ll be back in touch with the plans for the 2019-20 season  !

Best wishes to everyone - I hope you all have a great summer !

TVB.