As I said yesterday, February has been a bit of a struggle
(mainly due to reasons out of my control), so it was nice to finish it with a
winner.
More than that, the victory of Vision des Flos meant that all 4
months so far this season, have ended in profit.
In truth, I don’t worry
too much about monthly figures (there is far too much variability for them to
have significant meaning), but it does show that performance has been
consistently good.
Now I just need to nail March, in order to complete
the nap hand ! (no pressure !)
In terms of the performance of Vision des
Flos, then it really couldn’t have gone much better…
He travelled like a
dream throughout the race - and from some way out, looked by far the most likely
winner.
I did briefly think that Lil Rockerfeller might be tough to pass
up the home straight - but Rocky wouldn’t do that to TVB :-)
If the Cap Fits was gaining
on Vision Des Flos after the last - but in truth, that may have been because the
winner was idling.
If I’m honest, I’d earmarked Vision des Flos for the
Coral cup at Cheltenham - but I suspect todays win will scupper that
idea.
Still, a bird in the hand…
The opposite is true for Shantou
Flyer - as he remains very much in the bush !
However, the important thing is
that he is still in the bush - as based on his last run, that looked far from
guaranteed.
He looked much better today though.
His jumping wasn’t
flawless - but he was given a good test by Three faces West - and Southfield Vic
got the run of the race - yet Shantou Flyer still proved different
class.
Assuming Richard Hobson can get him spot on for the big race in
just over 2 weeks time, then I think he will take all the beating.
He was cut
to 7/1 post race - so our 14/1 now looks like a decent bet…
There were
also 2 Mentions running on the day, and they had mixed fortunes.
Uisce
Beatha was never really sighted in the novice chase - so much for the form book
!
Chosen Mate on the hand, won the grade 2 novice hurdle.
He did so by
only the minimum of margins - though I suspect he is better than the result
suggests.
So that’s it for another month - and now it’s just 2 weekends
to Cheltenham !
TVB.
Sunday 24 February 2019
Daily write-up - Feb 24th
There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Fontwell and
Carlise in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland.
As I inferred in Fridays ‘Plans for the weekend ‘ email, it’s not exactly the best Sundays racing ever staged !
Quality races are thin on the ground - with one notable exception: the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell Park.
It’s the courses main race of the season - and they’ve been rewarded with an excellent field.
Aside from that, there are a couple of class 3 races in the UK; and a couple of uncompetitive graded races at Naas.
Not really action that you can get stuck in to !
Despite that, I’ve manage to find a tip - in the big race - and I also have some views on the other main races on the afternoon.
Here are my thoughts…
Fontwell
2:50
This really is a cracking little race…
The absence of Sussex Ranger means that only 6 will go to post - but all 6 have got a chance of some sort (and that includes the outsider, Vive le Roi).
On official ratings, there is little between the top 5 in the betting - and that’s how I would see it.
However, Old Guard and Lil Rockerfeller are far more exposed than their 3 main rivals - and therefore have less scope for improvement.
As a consequence, I am inclined to focus on the other 3.
However, even narrowing it down to 3, doesn’t make it easy…
If the Cap Fits is officially the best horse in the race - but at todays weights, he only has 1 pound in hand of both Ballymoy and Vision des Flos.
All 3 horses should be perfectly suited by the test, so at a price of 7/4, If the Cap Fits holds limited appeal…
Similarly, choosing between Ballymoy and Vision des Flos is mainly a ‘value’ exercise.
I could make a decent case for them both - but with Ballymoy priced at 7/2 and Vision des Flos 11/2, choosing became easier…
From a form perspective, I think Vision des Flos has a very good chance.
He was a high class novice hurdler last season, when he finished runner up in Grade 1 events, at both the Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
He was tried over fences, first time out this season - but unshipped his jockey and that plan was promptly put on hold !
He was a little disappointing on his next 3 starts - but then under-went wind surgery.
That seemed to have a positive effect, as on his next run, he gave Buveur D’air a real scare at Sandown - and then last weekend, lost out in a driving finish to the Kingwell hurdle at Wincanton.
Those last 2 runs, are good form, in the context of todays race - and I expect stepping up by half a mile in trip, will see Vision des Flos perform even better.
Whether it will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell.
However, it definitely puts him right in the mix - and his early price under-estimated his chance.
Fingers crossed that he can turn theoretical value in to actual profit !!
4:25
Just a few quick words on this race, as it sees Shantou Flyer trying to secure his place in the field for the Foxhunters chase at the Cheltenham festival.
I tipped him for that race a couple of weeks ago - just before he ran in a similar event to todays, at Kelso.
It was a slightly risky tip, in that he needed to finish in the first 2 that day - and he has to again today - just to qualify to run at Cheltenham !
He managed to get the job done at Kelso - but it was far more of a struggle than I expected (and would have liked !).
That tempers my enthusiasm for him a little - though in fairness, we don’t know how fit he was that day.
In truth, we don’t even know how fit he will be today.
My hope is that connections are letting him run himself into top shape, on the racecourse, rather than hard training him hard, at home.
Whatever, he really needs to deliver the goods today - as time is running out (though he is also declared to run at Leicester on Tuesday and Ludlow on Thursday - presumably in case anything goes wrong today).
If he’s anywhere near last seasons best, he will hack up today: however, if he’s in similar form to at Kelso, Southfield Vic and Three Faces West are a couple of potentially dangerous rivals.
Lets hope it’s the former situation !
Naas
2:30
If I was on top of the my eye-catcher list in the forum, Impact Factor would feature in it…
He caught my eye on his most recent run, a fortnight ago, at Punchestown.
He was a short priced favourite that day, but despite finishing fast, he couldn’t reel in Riders onthe Storm over a 2 mile trip, and was beaten just over a length.
Despite the defeat, that was a decent effort, and Impact Factor looks sure to benefit from todays step up in trip.
It’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 134 is generous - but it seems fair.
This is a competitive looking race - but I could have been very interested in him, if it weren’t for the present of Uisce Beatha…
That one beat Impactor Factor on his most recent outing (early in January) - and yet is 8lb better off at the weights today.
That’s down to Impact Factor's subsequent runs - but unless he’s improved by nearly a stone, he’s going to struggle to beat Uisce Beatha today.
The longer trip could be a factor - but in truth, it was Uisce Beatha who looked the more likely of the pair to appreciate stepping up in distance…
Uisce Beatha was priced up shorter than Impact Factor in the early betting - but he has now drifted - whilst Impact Factor has shortened.
In fact, it has reached the point where I’m very tempted to take a risk on Uisce Beatha.
The only issue is, everyone can see what I can see, so you have to be a little suspicious of the drift.
Furthermore, Uisce Beatha is owned by JP McManus, so there is always the possibility he is being readied for another day.
With a straight bat, Uisce Beatha is a bet at 7/1 - however, I’m going to resist (officially speaking !).
3:00
There are a couple of graded events on the Naas card - and this is the more appealing one, from a betting perspective - though that doesn’t say a lot !
Chosen Mate heads the betting on the back of his runner up placing in a listed event at Punchestown a fortnight ago - and I suspect he will take a good deal of beating this afternoon.
Certainly,third favourite, Prince D’Aubrelle, will have his work cut out to beat him, as he too ran in the Punchestown race and finished over 20 lengthens behind, Chosen Mate.
As it was his first run of the season, he may well improve for it - but he’ll need to !
Second favourite, Jetez, can’t be quite so easily dismissed - but he appears to have found his level, at a mark in the mid 130s - and that really shouldn’t be good enough to win a grade 2 event.
Milan Native and Hannon are both totally unexposed, so have scope for significant improvement.
However, that will be required if they are going to trouble Chosen Mate…
I wouldn’t consider supporting Chosen Mate at 6/5 - but equally, I’m struggling to find anything to oppose him with.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Font 2:50 Vision des Flos 1pt win 11/2
Mentions
Naas 2:30 Uisce Beatha (S )
Naas 3:00 Chosen Mate (P )
As I inferred in Fridays ‘Plans for the weekend ‘ email, it’s not exactly the best Sundays racing ever staged !
Quality races are thin on the ground - with one notable exception: the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell Park.
It’s the courses main race of the season - and they’ve been rewarded with an excellent field.
Aside from that, there are a couple of class 3 races in the UK; and a couple of uncompetitive graded races at Naas.
Not really action that you can get stuck in to !
Despite that, I’ve manage to find a tip - in the big race - and I also have some views on the other main races on the afternoon.
Here are my thoughts…
Fontwell
2:50
This really is a cracking little race…
The absence of Sussex Ranger means that only 6 will go to post - but all 6 have got a chance of some sort (and that includes the outsider, Vive le Roi).
On official ratings, there is little between the top 5 in the betting - and that’s how I would see it.
However, Old Guard and Lil Rockerfeller are far more exposed than their 3 main rivals - and therefore have less scope for improvement.
As a consequence, I am inclined to focus on the other 3.
However, even narrowing it down to 3, doesn’t make it easy…
If the Cap Fits is officially the best horse in the race - but at todays weights, he only has 1 pound in hand of both Ballymoy and Vision des Flos.
All 3 horses should be perfectly suited by the test, so at a price of 7/4, If the Cap Fits holds limited appeal…
Similarly, choosing between Ballymoy and Vision des Flos is mainly a ‘value’ exercise.
I could make a decent case for them both - but with Ballymoy priced at 7/2 and Vision des Flos 11/2, choosing became easier…
From a form perspective, I think Vision des Flos has a very good chance.
He was a high class novice hurdler last season, when he finished runner up in Grade 1 events, at both the Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
He was tried over fences, first time out this season - but unshipped his jockey and that plan was promptly put on hold !
He was a little disappointing on his next 3 starts - but then under-went wind surgery.
That seemed to have a positive effect, as on his next run, he gave Buveur D’air a real scare at Sandown - and then last weekend, lost out in a driving finish to the Kingwell hurdle at Wincanton.
Those last 2 runs, are good form, in the context of todays race - and I expect stepping up by half a mile in trip, will see Vision des Flos perform even better.
Whether it will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell.
However, it definitely puts him right in the mix - and his early price under-estimated his chance.
Fingers crossed that he can turn theoretical value in to actual profit !!
4:25
Just a few quick words on this race, as it sees Shantou Flyer trying to secure his place in the field for the Foxhunters chase at the Cheltenham festival.
I tipped him for that race a couple of weeks ago - just before he ran in a similar event to todays, at Kelso.
It was a slightly risky tip, in that he needed to finish in the first 2 that day - and he has to again today - just to qualify to run at Cheltenham !
He managed to get the job done at Kelso - but it was far more of a struggle than I expected (and would have liked !).
That tempers my enthusiasm for him a little - though in fairness, we don’t know how fit he was that day.
In truth, we don’t even know how fit he will be today.
My hope is that connections are letting him run himself into top shape, on the racecourse, rather than hard training him hard, at home.
Whatever, he really needs to deliver the goods today - as time is running out (though he is also declared to run at Leicester on Tuesday and Ludlow on Thursday - presumably in case anything goes wrong today).
If he’s anywhere near last seasons best, he will hack up today: however, if he’s in similar form to at Kelso, Southfield Vic and Three Faces West are a couple of potentially dangerous rivals.
Lets hope it’s the former situation !
Naas
2:30
If I was on top of the my eye-catcher list in the forum, Impact Factor would feature in it…
He caught my eye on his most recent run, a fortnight ago, at Punchestown.
He was a short priced favourite that day, but despite finishing fast, he couldn’t reel in Riders onthe Storm over a 2 mile trip, and was beaten just over a length.
Despite the defeat, that was a decent effort, and Impact Factor looks sure to benefit from todays step up in trip.
It’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 134 is generous - but it seems fair.
This is a competitive looking race - but I could have been very interested in him, if it weren’t for the present of Uisce Beatha…
That one beat Impactor Factor on his most recent outing (early in January) - and yet is 8lb better off at the weights today.
That’s down to Impact Factor's subsequent runs - but unless he’s improved by nearly a stone, he’s going to struggle to beat Uisce Beatha today.
The longer trip could be a factor - but in truth, it was Uisce Beatha who looked the more likely of the pair to appreciate stepping up in distance…
Uisce Beatha was priced up shorter than Impact Factor in the early betting - but he has now drifted - whilst Impact Factor has shortened.
In fact, it has reached the point where I’m very tempted to take a risk on Uisce Beatha.
The only issue is, everyone can see what I can see, so you have to be a little suspicious of the drift.
Furthermore, Uisce Beatha is owned by JP McManus, so there is always the possibility he is being readied for another day.
With a straight bat, Uisce Beatha is a bet at 7/1 - however, I’m going to resist (officially speaking !).
3:00
There are a couple of graded events on the Naas card - and this is the more appealing one, from a betting perspective - though that doesn’t say a lot !
Chosen Mate heads the betting on the back of his runner up placing in a listed event at Punchestown a fortnight ago - and I suspect he will take a good deal of beating this afternoon.
Certainly,third favourite, Prince D’Aubrelle, will have his work cut out to beat him, as he too ran in the Punchestown race and finished over 20 lengthens behind, Chosen Mate.
As it was his first run of the season, he may well improve for it - but he’ll need to !
Second favourite, Jetez, can’t be quite so easily dismissed - but he appears to have found his level, at a mark in the mid 130s - and that really shouldn’t be good enough to win a grade 2 event.
Milan Native and Hannon are both totally unexposed, so have scope for significant improvement.
However, that will be required if they are going to trouble Chosen Mate…
I wouldn’t consider supporting Chosen Mate at 6/5 - but equally, I’m struggling to find anything to oppose him with.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Font 2:50 Vision des Flos 1pt win 11/2
Mentions
Naas 2:30 Uisce Beatha (S )
Naas 3:00 Chosen Mate (P )
Review of the day
We got a stark reminder this afternoon, of the perils of NH
racing…
Overtown Express was the main tip on the day - and I was very optimistic that he was going to oblige at Chepstow.
Given a waiting ride, behind an overly strong pace, he cruised into contention round the home turn - and I’m absolutely sure he would have taken a lot of beating (he touched 2.5 in running at that point).
However, he got the first fence in the straight wrong - and although he didn’t fall, it seriously unbalanced him - and in struggling to regain his equilibrium, he broke his leg.
It was a sickening sight - and acted as a reminder of what these horses and jockeys put on the line, for our daily pleasure…
Incredibly, I thought that exactly the same thing had happened to the first tip on the day, Rhythm is a Dancer.
He wasn’t travelling with the same menace as Overtown Express - but was far from beaten, when he made a mistake at the fifth hurdle.
He too was quickly pulled up - but thankfully it was only a knock and he lived to fight another day…
2 races later on the Kempton card, Petit Palais finished a disappointing fourth in the juvenile hurdle.
There was always a chance that one of the newcomers would prove too good for him - but I would have expected him to run better than he did.
It would appear he has quite significant limitations…
As a consequence, whether it was going to be a profitable day for the tips, all came down to the Eider chase at Newcastle.
I tipped 2 in the race - and both ran really well.
Kimberlite Candy made a few mistakes - and probably didn’t quite get home: but thankfully, Crosspark jumped soundly and under a strong drive from Jamie Moore, managed to get his head in front, just before the line.
February has been a bit of a struggle (not helped by the weather or the equine flu), so it was nice to finally nail a decent priced winner…
As for the Mentions:
Then Bags Groove got them off to a good start, with a textbook win at Kempton.
However, that was as good as it got…
Talkischeap ran a fair race at Kempton - but it was strong contest and simply, he wasn’t up to the job (at this stage of his career, anyway).
Finally, Magic of Light was backed into favouritism at Fairyhouse but she never appeared to be travelling particularly well - and decanted her jockey just after half way.
Hardly an ideal preparation for the Grand National !!
TVB.
Overtown Express was the main tip on the day - and I was very optimistic that he was going to oblige at Chepstow.
Given a waiting ride, behind an overly strong pace, he cruised into contention round the home turn - and I’m absolutely sure he would have taken a lot of beating (he touched 2.5 in running at that point).
However, he got the first fence in the straight wrong - and although he didn’t fall, it seriously unbalanced him - and in struggling to regain his equilibrium, he broke his leg.
It was a sickening sight - and acted as a reminder of what these horses and jockeys put on the line, for our daily pleasure…
Incredibly, I thought that exactly the same thing had happened to the first tip on the day, Rhythm is a Dancer.
He wasn’t travelling with the same menace as Overtown Express - but was far from beaten, when he made a mistake at the fifth hurdle.
He too was quickly pulled up - but thankfully it was only a knock and he lived to fight another day…
2 races later on the Kempton card, Petit Palais finished a disappointing fourth in the juvenile hurdle.
There was always a chance that one of the newcomers would prove too good for him - but I would have expected him to run better than he did.
It would appear he has quite significant limitations…
As a consequence, whether it was going to be a profitable day for the tips, all came down to the Eider chase at Newcastle.
I tipped 2 in the race - and both ran really well.
Kimberlite Candy made a few mistakes - and probably didn’t quite get home: but thankfully, Crosspark jumped soundly and under a strong drive from Jamie Moore, managed to get his head in front, just before the line.
February has been a bit of a struggle (not helped by the weather or the equine flu), so it was nice to finally nail a decent priced winner…
As for the Mentions:
Then Bags Groove got them off to a good start, with a textbook win at Kempton.
However, that was as good as it got…
Talkischeap ran a fair race at Kempton - but it was strong contest and simply, he wasn’t up to the job (at this stage of his career, anyway).
Finally, Magic of Light was backed into favouritism at Fairyhouse but she never appeared to be travelling particularly well - and decanted her jockey just after half way.
Hardly an ideal preparation for the Grand National !!
TVB.
Daily write-up - Feb 23rd
There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Newcastle and
Chepstow in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
With the start of the Cheltenham festival now just over 2 week away, things are starting to change a little…
Most of the horses that will run at Cheltenham, should have had their final prep runs by now - though the quick ground and Equine flu, have caused some issues…
Certainly, I’m sure that a few of the star names out today, would not be running in an ideal world (Angels Breath being the most obvious one).
That creates another level of confusion, as I can’t believe those horses will be given an unduly hard race, so close to the festival.
If they win, they will need to win easily…
The lack of rain continues to be an issue - and again, I suspect some trainers will be running their horses today, despite the conditions - just to put an edge on them.
Needless to say, all the second guessing doesn't help with trying to solve the puzzles !
Despite that, I’ve managed to find 5 tips on the day, across 4 races - plus I’ve got an opinion on a few more !
Here is the rationale for the tips, along with my views on the days other main races…
Kempton
1:15
I think it is worth siding with Rhythm is a Dancer in this…
He won a novice hurdle at Wincanton in November - and followed up in a novice handicap at the same track, the following month.
On the back of those 2 victories, he ran in a class 2 open handicap, again at Wincanton, on Boxing day.
He ran a slightly strange race that day, one minute appearing to be travelling strongly and the next, under pressure.
Ultimately, he finished a well beaten fifth - but as he was running from out of the handicap, he is effectively 3lb better of today.
More importantly, he will be racing on better ground (it was on the soft side) and he’s been given a break to freshen him up (there were less than 3 weeks between his previous 2 runs).
Clearly, the current form of the Paul Nicholls yard is also a massive positive.
Everything he runs at the moment, seems to either win - or at least run well - and hopefully Rhythm is a Dancer will continue that trend.
In terms of his opponents, then most of the dangerous ones appear to be at the head of the market (as you would expect !).
That said, I could certainly give Champagne Champ a chance - and he may be worth saving stakes on, at around 12/1…
1:50
This is quite a tight race - despite there being only 4 runners.
Bags Groove and Secret Investor, head the market - and I wouldn’t argue with that.
They met at Wincanton back in November, and Bags Groove came out on top, by 9 lengths.
However, Secret Investor was making his chasing debut that day - and he’s 5lb better off at the weights today.
That should make things much closer between the pair - though whether it will be sufficient to reverse the form, is a different matter.
Prior to his most recent run, Bags Groove had looked really good, over fences.
His win at Wincanton, was sandwiched between 2 equally impressive victories at Ffos Las and Huntingdon.
He’s a very nimble, clean jumping horse - and those characteristics will always make him hard to beat - particularly in novice company.
If he gets an uncontested lead today - and Noel Fehily gets him in to a rhythm - I doubt his opponents will be able to pass him.
The worry is, that he was disappointing last time - at Kempton.
Admittedly that was in grade 1 company - but he just didn’t travel as he has done in his previous races.
If Harry Fry has got him back, then I think he will win; if he’s not, then Secret Investor looks the one most likely to take advantage.
However, as you can’t beat 2/1 on either of them, the options for getting involved are limited…
2:25
This is a slightly odd race, in as much as the 3 horses who headed the early market, are all making their UK hurdling debuts…
Ecco and Red Force One are both running over hurdles for the first time; and whilst Fusil Raffles, has run over hurdles previously, that was in his native France.
All 3 are likely to improve for todays the outing - though that doesn’t mean they can’t win.
It does however mean that they were probably put in too short - and therefore were worth opposing…
There are a few options to take them on with - but I eventually plumped for Petit Palais.
He’s only run once over hurdles, when an impressive winner at Ludlow.
That track and Kempton, are quite similar (flat, right handed), so he should be well suited by todays test.
It’s also likely that he possesses a fair level of natural ability, as he’s a half brother to the 2000 guineas winners, Galileo Gold !
That certainly suggests that he will be best suited by quick ground and a relative speed test (which is what he will get this afternoon).
Of the others, Protektorat, Giving Glances and Beat the Judge, are all of some interest.
However, I suspect that all 3 are running with a view to getting them in to the Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
I doubt that is on Petit Palais’s agenda.
If he wins, I guess he could run in the Triumph, but I suspect he is a horse who will be much better suited to Aintree, rather than Cheltenham.
Anyway, that’s all in the future !
Hopefully today, he can use his experience to see off the 3 débutantes, and his natural ability to beat those who have run before.
3:00
This is a very difficult race to get involved with, as Angels Breath is impossible to support - but almost as difficult to oppose !
He made his debut in a grade 2 event at Ascot just before Christmas, and I was quite keen to take him on that day.
It’s unusual for a horse to makes its debut in a graded race - and he was also sent off a very short favourite.
Ofcourse the reason he was a strong favourite, was because he is trained by Nicky Henderson and he has plenty of horses to compare him with.
Clearly Angels Breath shows plenty at home - and in fairness, he showed quite a lot at Ascot !
He came home 4 lengths clear of his nearest rival, that day - putting up a seemingly impressive performance.
Time has shown that it maybe wasn’t quite as good as it appeared at the time - but Nicky Henderson is still talking up the horse - and as a consequence, he is an 8/11 shot today.
You can’t possibly back him at that price, because he’s not done anything on the track to warrants it.
However, Henderson is not inclined to talk up his horses, so its highly likely that Angle Breath is a big talent…
That might still not be sufficient to get him home today, in what will be much more of a speed test - particularly with Cheltenham on the horizon.
Certainly he faces a tough rival , in the shape of Scarlet Dragon.
He is rated 106 on the flat - and will be well suited by the conditions of todays race.
I could also give the Henderson second string, Daphne du Clos, a chance - though it does look as if she is using this race to prep for Cheltenham.
In the circumstances, it has be be a watching race - though it’s likely to be a very interesting one…
3:35
I really wanted to tip Talkischeap in this - but the price has gone…
He was a 7/1 chance when the final declarations came through - and would have been quite happy with 5/1 or greater.
I really didn’t expect that to be a problem, particularly with Glen Rocco and Adrian du Pont in opposition.
However, he was a best price 9/2 first thing this morning - and now you can’t beat 7/2.
You have to draw the line somewhere - and in such a competitive race, I feel that price is too short…
Ofcourse, everyone has latched on to his form with Lostintranslation and La Bague au Roi - and it is certainly strong novice form.
He also has plenty of scope for improvement and should be ideally suited by conditions.
In short he has ticks in plenty of boxes.
The issue, is simply the opposition (as well as the price !).
It’s a strong race, in which all 10 runners can be given a chance of some sort.
I feel that 5/1 is about the right price for Talkischeap - and whilst it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to drift to that price at some point, it’s not going to happen in the window where I can tip…
In terms of his opponents, then I really do think that all of them can be given a chance of some sort.
Value-wise, then Dedero Vallis is probably the best bet, at around 12/1 - but I’m not inclined to tip him purely on the grounds of theoretical value.
It has to be another watching race…
Chepstow
4:15
I’m pretty keen on Overtown Express in this.
Those of you who follow the eye-catchers in the forum will know that I put him up, following his most recent run at Sandown.
That was his second outing of the season and he travelled really powerfully until fading from the third last.
My feeling is, that run should have put him spot on for today.
He actually finished runner up in todays corresponding race, 12 months ago.
He ran off a 9lb higher mark, that day - and he also didn’t come in to the race, on the back of such a positive run.
In the circumstances, it’s hard not to be positive about his claims this afternoon !
It adds to his case, the fact that he’s running from a mark 3lb lower than his last winning mark - and he absolutely dotted up that day !
He also has a decent 3lb claimer in the saddle - so I really do think that everything is in place for a massive run.
His main opponent today, appears to be Capeland.
He’s done very well this season - but runs today on the back of a 50 day absence and following wind surgery.
My feeling is that todays race is likely to be used to get him spot on for a Cheltenham target.
The other one that sightly worries me, is Shanahans Turn.
He is arguably well handicapped - however 2 miles isn’t really his trip and again, he is likely to be using this race as a stepping stone (this time for Aintree).
Overtown Express won't be using it as a prep for anything - this is likely to be the peak of his season.
With so many other things in his favour, that means he simply has to be supported this afternoon…
Newcastle
2:40
It’s extremely unusual (almost unique !) for the Eider chase to be run on anything other than very soft ground, and todays conditions of ‘good to soft’ must be almost unprecedented…
I can recall occasions when the race has only had 2 or 3 finishers - but it’s going to be a very different contest this afternoon.
The quick ground is likely to scupper the chances of a quite a few: Daklondike and last years winners, Baywing, chief amongst them.
On the flip side, conditions are a real bonus for some of the others: non more so than favourite, Vincente…
He’s a horse who has always performed much better on quicker spring ground - and is now back down to the mark that he has run off, when twice wining the Scottish National.
As he’s also trained by Paul Nichols and is Sean Bowen’s only ride on the afternoon - it’s hard to argue with his position at the head of the market.
The only issue, is a price of 6/1, which leaves no margin for error…
Rather than side with him, I’ve decide to split stakes on a couple at bigger prices…
The first is Kimberlite Candy.
He ran really well last time, when staying on into third at Sandown.
He steps up in trip by a mile today, which is a big jump.
However, he looks as if it will suit him - and the ground should help, from a stamina perspective.
It should also help that he hails from the stable of Tom Lacey - as with 6 winners from his last 13 runners, he could hardly be in better form.
Crosspark is more exposed - but he also comes from a stable in form (Caroline Bailey).
He also ran really well last time, when finishing third behind Impulsive Star, in the classic chase at Warwick.
He’ll need to improve again to win today, but that’s not impossible - and the fact that Jamie Moore has travelled to Newcastle to ride, him is another positive.
Plenty of others can be given chances - but hopefully either Kimberlite Candy or Crosspark, can come home in front.
Fairyhouse
4:00
The absence of Presenting Percy has robbed this race of a lot of its interest - though it is still a decent contest.
Magic of Light is the one that appeals most - and if I could have secured at least 5/2 (ideally 3/1 !), I would have tipped her.
She’s been in tremendous form all this season, wining twice and placing twice, from 4 efforts.
Her rating has increased by 13lb - and the suggestion is that she’s not finished yet.
Furthermore, she should be perfectly suited by todays test.
She was beaten last time at Huntingdon, but that was over half a mile shorter - and she was staying on strongly in the closing stages.
Again, this is another race where you have to be a little mindful of what’s on the horizon (whether horses are being prepped for future targets).
However that shouldn’t be the case with Magic of Light, as she is being aimed at the Grand National and a win today, won’t affect her rating for that race.
The only slight concern is that she’s unlikely to be 100% - and that makes me a little wary about chasing down her price.
That said, I think she will win, as all of her rivals, apart from Alpha des Obeaux, have even bigger question marks against them.
He doesn’t - and the race should really rest between him and Magic of Light…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 1:15 Rhythm is a Dancer 1pt win 15/2
Kemp 2:25 Petit Palais 1pt win 6/1
Chep 4:15 Overtown Express 2pt win 9/2
Newc 2:40 Kimberlite Candy 0.5pt win 9/1
Newc 2:40 Crosspark 0.5pt win 18/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:50 Bags Groove (S )
Kemp 3:35 Talkischeap (P )
Fairy 4:00 Magic of Light (P )
With the start of the Cheltenham festival now just over 2 week away, things are starting to change a little…
Most of the horses that will run at Cheltenham, should have had their final prep runs by now - though the quick ground and Equine flu, have caused some issues…
Certainly, I’m sure that a few of the star names out today, would not be running in an ideal world (Angels Breath being the most obvious one).
That creates another level of confusion, as I can’t believe those horses will be given an unduly hard race, so close to the festival.
If they win, they will need to win easily…
The lack of rain continues to be an issue - and again, I suspect some trainers will be running their horses today, despite the conditions - just to put an edge on them.
Needless to say, all the second guessing doesn't help with trying to solve the puzzles !
Despite that, I’ve managed to find 5 tips on the day, across 4 races - plus I’ve got an opinion on a few more !
Here is the rationale for the tips, along with my views on the days other main races…
Kempton
1:15
I think it is worth siding with Rhythm is a Dancer in this…
He won a novice hurdle at Wincanton in November - and followed up in a novice handicap at the same track, the following month.
On the back of those 2 victories, he ran in a class 2 open handicap, again at Wincanton, on Boxing day.
He ran a slightly strange race that day, one minute appearing to be travelling strongly and the next, under pressure.
Ultimately, he finished a well beaten fifth - but as he was running from out of the handicap, he is effectively 3lb better of today.
More importantly, he will be racing on better ground (it was on the soft side) and he’s been given a break to freshen him up (there were less than 3 weeks between his previous 2 runs).
Clearly, the current form of the Paul Nicholls yard is also a massive positive.
Everything he runs at the moment, seems to either win - or at least run well - and hopefully Rhythm is a Dancer will continue that trend.
In terms of his opponents, then most of the dangerous ones appear to be at the head of the market (as you would expect !).
That said, I could certainly give Champagne Champ a chance - and he may be worth saving stakes on, at around 12/1…
1:50
This is quite a tight race - despite there being only 4 runners.
Bags Groove and Secret Investor, head the market - and I wouldn’t argue with that.
They met at Wincanton back in November, and Bags Groove came out on top, by 9 lengths.
However, Secret Investor was making his chasing debut that day - and he’s 5lb better off at the weights today.
That should make things much closer between the pair - though whether it will be sufficient to reverse the form, is a different matter.
Prior to his most recent run, Bags Groove had looked really good, over fences.
His win at Wincanton, was sandwiched between 2 equally impressive victories at Ffos Las and Huntingdon.
He’s a very nimble, clean jumping horse - and those characteristics will always make him hard to beat - particularly in novice company.
If he gets an uncontested lead today - and Noel Fehily gets him in to a rhythm - I doubt his opponents will be able to pass him.
The worry is, that he was disappointing last time - at Kempton.
Admittedly that was in grade 1 company - but he just didn’t travel as he has done in his previous races.
If Harry Fry has got him back, then I think he will win; if he’s not, then Secret Investor looks the one most likely to take advantage.
However, as you can’t beat 2/1 on either of them, the options for getting involved are limited…
2:25
This is a slightly odd race, in as much as the 3 horses who headed the early market, are all making their UK hurdling debuts…
Ecco and Red Force One are both running over hurdles for the first time; and whilst Fusil Raffles, has run over hurdles previously, that was in his native France.
All 3 are likely to improve for todays the outing - though that doesn’t mean they can’t win.
It does however mean that they were probably put in too short - and therefore were worth opposing…
There are a few options to take them on with - but I eventually plumped for Petit Palais.
He’s only run once over hurdles, when an impressive winner at Ludlow.
That track and Kempton, are quite similar (flat, right handed), so he should be well suited by todays test.
It’s also likely that he possesses a fair level of natural ability, as he’s a half brother to the 2000 guineas winners, Galileo Gold !
That certainly suggests that he will be best suited by quick ground and a relative speed test (which is what he will get this afternoon).
Of the others, Protektorat, Giving Glances and Beat the Judge, are all of some interest.
However, I suspect that all 3 are running with a view to getting them in to the Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
I doubt that is on Petit Palais’s agenda.
If he wins, I guess he could run in the Triumph, but I suspect he is a horse who will be much better suited to Aintree, rather than Cheltenham.
Anyway, that’s all in the future !
Hopefully today, he can use his experience to see off the 3 débutantes, and his natural ability to beat those who have run before.
3:00
This is a very difficult race to get involved with, as Angels Breath is impossible to support - but almost as difficult to oppose !
He made his debut in a grade 2 event at Ascot just before Christmas, and I was quite keen to take him on that day.
It’s unusual for a horse to makes its debut in a graded race - and he was also sent off a very short favourite.
Ofcourse the reason he was a strong favourite, was because he is trained by Nicky Henderson and he has plenty of horses to compare him with.
Clearly Angels Breath shows plenty at home - and in fairness, he showed quite a lot at Ascot !
He came home 4 lengths clear of his nearest rival, that day - putting up a seemingly impressive performance.
Time has shown that it maybe wasn’t quite as good as it appeared at the time - but Nicky Henderson is still talking up the horse - and as a consequence, he is an 8/11 shot today.
You can’t possibly back him at that price, because he’s not done anything on the track to warrants it.
However, Henderson is not inclined to talk up his horses, so its highly likely that Angle Breath is a big talent…
That might still not be sufficient to get him home today, in what will be much more of a speed test - particularly with Cheltenham on the horizon.
Certainly he faces a tough rival , in the shape of Scarlet Dragon.
He is rated 106 on the flat - and will be well suited by the conditions of todays race.
I could also give the Henderson second string, Daphne du Clos, a chance - though it does look as if she is using this race to prep for Cheltenham.
In the circumstances, it has be be a watching race - though it’s likely to be a very interesting one…
3:35
I really wanted to tip Talkischeap in this - but the price has gone…
He was a 7/1 chance when the final declarations came through - and would have been quite happy with 5/1 or greater.
I really didn’t expect that to be a problem, particularly with Glen Rocco and Adrian du Pont in opposition.
However, he was a best price 9/2 first thing this morning - and now you can’t beat 7/2.
You have to draw the line somewhere - and in such a competitive race, I feel that price is too short…
Ofcourse, everyone has latched on to his form with Lostintranslation and La Bague au Roi - and it is certainly strong novice form.
He also has plenty of scope for improvement and should be ideally suited by conditions.
In short he has ticks in plenty of boxes.
The issue, is simply the opposition (as well as the price !).
It’s a strong race, in which all 10 runners can be given a chance of some sort.
I feel that 5/1 is about the right price for Talkischeap - and whilst it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to drift to that price at some point, it’s not going to happen in the window where I can tip…
In terms of his opponents, then I really do think that all of them can be given a chance of some sort.
Value-wise, then Dedero Vallis is probably the best bet, at around 12/1 - but I’m not inclined to tip him purely on the grounds of theoretical value.
It has to be another watching race…
Chepstow
4:15
I’m pretty keen on Overtown Express in this.
Those of you who follow the eye-catchers in the forum will know that I put him up, following his most recent run at Sandown.
That was his second outing of the season and he travelled really powerfully until fading from the third last.
My feeling is, that run should have put him spot on for today.
He actually finished runner up in todays corresponding race, 12 months ago.
He ran off a 9lb higher mark, that day - and he also didn’t come in to the race, on the back of such a positive run.
In the circumstances, it’s hard not to be positive about his claims this afternoon !
It adds to his case, the fact that he’s running from a mark 3lb lower than his last winning mark - and he absolutely dotted up that day !
He also has a decent 3lb claimer in the saddle - so I really do think that everything is in place for a massive run.
His main opponent today, appears to be Capeland.
He’s done very well this season - but runs today on the back of a 50 day absence and following wind surgery.
My feeling is that todays race is likely to be used to get him spot on for a Cheltenham target.
The other one that sightly worries me, is Shanahans Turn.
He is arguably well handicapped - however 2 miles isn’t really his trip and again, he is likely to be using this race as a stepping stone (this time for Aintree).
Overtown Express won't be using it as a prep for anything - this is likely to be the peak of his season.
With so many other things in his favour, that means he simply has to be supported this afternoon…
Newcastle
2:40
It’s extremely unusual (almost unique !) for the Eider chase to be run on anything other than very soft ground, and todays conditions of ‘good to soft’ must be almost unprecedented…
I can recall occasions when the race has only had 2 or 3 finishers - but it’s going to be a very different contest this afternoon.
The quick ground is likely to scupper the chances of a quite a few: Daklondike and last years winners, Baywing, chief amongst them.
On the flip side, conditions are a real bonus for some of the others: non more so than favourite, Vincente…
He’s a horse who has always performed much better on quicker spring ground - and is now back down to the mark that he has run off, when twice wining the Scottish National.
As he’s also trained by Paul Nichols and is Sean Bowen’s only ride on the afternoon - it’s hard to argue with his position at the head of the market.
The only issue, is a price of 6/1, which leaves no margin for error…
Rather than side with him, I’ve decide to split stakes on a couple at bigger prices…
The first is Kimberlite Candy.
He ran really well last time, when staying on into third at Sandown.
He steps up in trip by a mile today, which is a big jump.
However, he looks as if it will suit him - and the ground should help, from a stamina perspective.
It should also help that he hails from the stable of Tom Lacey - as with 6 winners from his last 13 runners, he could hardly be in better form.
Crosspark is more exposed - but he also comes from a stable in form (Caroline Bailey).
He also ran really well last time, when finishing third behind Impulsive Star, in the classic chase at Warwick.
He’ll need to improve again to win today, but that’s not impossible - and the fact that Jamie Moore has travelled to Newcastle to ride, him is another positive.
Plenty of others can be given chances - but hopefully either Kimberlite Candy or Crosspark, can come home in front.
Fairyhouse
4:00
The absence of Presenting Percy has robbed this race of a lot of its interest - though it is still a decent contest.
Magic of Light is the one that appeals most - and if I could have secured at least 5/2 (ideally 3/1 !), I would have tipped her.
She’s been in tremendous form all this season, wining twice and placing twice, from 4 efforts.
Her rating has increased by 13lb - and the suggestion is that she’s not finished yet.
Furthermore, she should be perfectly suited by todays test.
She was beaten last time at Huntingdon, but that was over half a mile shorter - and she was staying on strongly in the closing stages.
Again, this is another race where you have to be a little mindful of what’s on the horizon (whether horses are being prepped for future targets).
However that shouldn’t be the case with Magic of Light, as she is being aimed at the Grand National and a win today, won’t affect her rating for that race.
The only slight concern is that she’s unlikely to be 100% - and that makes me a little wary about chasing down her price.
That said, I think she will win, as all of her rivals, apart from Alpha des Obeaux, have even bigger question marks against them.
He doesn’t - and the race should really rest between him and Magic of Light…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Kemp 1:15 Rhythm is a Dancer 1pt win 15/2
Kemp 2:25 Petit Palais 1pt win 6/1
Chep 4:15 Overtown Express 2pt win 9/2
Newc 2:40 Kimberlite Candy 0.5pt win 9/1
Newc 2:40 Crosspark 0.5pt win 18/1
Mentions
Kemp 1:50 Bags Groove (S )
Kemp 3:35 Talkischeap (P )
Fairy 4:00 Magic of Light (P )
Review of the day
Today provided a timely reminder, that TVB is best used, not
purely as a tipping service !
As I said this morning, there was so much quality racing, it almost had me going round in circles.
I analysed approximately 20 races yesterday - and spent this morning writing up my thoughts on the races, on which I’d spent the longest.
To support that, I issued 8 tips (1 was a NR) - and 4 Mentions - and at the end of the day, those 12 selections yielded between them, 4 winners and 2 seconds.
More than that, if you have backed all of the selections at around 9:00 - and taken BOG - you would have been rewarded with winners at 25/1, 9/1, 9/1 and 8/1 !
And yet, despite all of this, the tips some how managed to record a small loss on the day.
Now that takes a bit of doing !
Part of the issue is that I have so much else to do, the actual tipping can take a bit of back seat (particularly on a day like today).
That said, I do my best to try and pick out the days best bets and make them tips - and I also think there was simply an element of misfortune in the way things worked out this afternoon…
In terms of the performance of the tips, then Now McGinty got the ball rolling, with a gutsy second at Ascot.
He got in to a bit of a pace battle with Top VIlle Ben - and I suspect that ultimately cost him his chance of winning.
He lost his position at the end of the back straight but was staying on strongly, after the last.
Ridden differently, it’s not hard to think that he would have gone very close…
I expected Down the Highway to go close at Haydock - but he was disappointing.
I can’t offer any excuse for his run - simply, he wasn’t good enough.
It was a similar story with Didtheyleaveuoutto - though my expectation of him, wasn’t as great.
I always thought that Al Dancer and Getaway Trump would take a bit of beating - and it was the former who proved himself a very well handicapped horse…
With Impulsive Star a non runner, it was left to Pobbles Bay and Robinsfrith to try and rescue something in the big race at Haydock.
The former was never really given a chance - ridden way out the back.
However the latter was ridden more prominently - and showed a great attitude after the last, to come home first, in a driving finish.
That could have set things up for the big tip of the day: Politologue - but he was no match for his stablemate, Cyrname.
To be honest, I was a little fearful when I saw the pre-race drift on Politologue - and the market support for Cyrname.
I hoped it was down to their running styles (Cyrname likes to lead, so makes a good in running play) - but it soon became apparent that wasn’t the reason.
In fairness, Cyrname was absolutely brilliant - and put in a performance far better than I thought him capable.
It was a little disappointing that Politologue couldn’t even manage to get second - though from a P&L perspective, it would have made no difference.
The final 2 tips on the day, were even bigger drifters than Politologue - and both ran accordingly !
I was right to take on Kateson at Haydock - however, I picked the wrong horse to side with, as Highland Hunter never threatened to get involved.
Whilst, The Way you Dance, made a strong play for the title of ‘drifter of the season’, at Ascot !
He was 16/1 this morning - but his BSP of 71, more accurately expressed his actual chance of winning !
In fairness, he travelled OK, to a point - but he was beaten as soon as pressure was applied.
I knew he was a little risky - though I wasn’t quite expecting that !
As for the Mentions:
Then Brio Conte set things off, by winning at 25/1 - even though Paul Nichols had said he would need the run ! (a statement which doubtless helped his price !).
That was followed up by Shades of Midnight - who took full advantage of Yanworths under-whelming effort, to run out a very comfortable winner.
The hat-trick of winning Mentions was completed by Calipto - who was another impressive winner.
The only losing Mention on the day, was Terrefort - though he still ran well to finish second, to an ultra impressive Clan des Obeaux…
All in all, I wasn’t too sure what to make of the day - but I know there was at least one subscriber who was very pleased with the way things worked out…
Steve has been with the service for a number of years - and often puts the Mentions in multiples.
I recall that tactic paying off, a few years ago just after Christmas - and it did so again for him today, in spectacular style !
A £1 EW patent apparently paid just over £3K - which just goes to show what can be achieved.
If only I’d made them all tips, then maybe a few more of you would have done the same !
Very well done Steve - whilst for the rest of you, there’s always next week...
TVB.
As I said this morning, there was so much quality racing, it almost had me going round in circles.
I analysed approximately 20 races yesterday - and spent this morning writing up my thoughts on the races, on which I’d spent the longest.
To support that, I issued 8 tips (1 was a NR) - and 4 Mentions - and at the end of the day, those 12 selections yielded between them, 4 winners and 2 seconds.
More than that, if you have backed all of the selections at around 9:00 - and taken BOG - you would have been rewarded with winners at 25/1, 9/1, 9/1 and 8/1 !
And yet, despite all of this, the tips some how managed to record a small loss on the day.
Now that takes a bit of doing !
Part of the issue is that I have so much else to do, the actual tipping can take a bit of back seat (particularly on a day like today).
That said, I do my best to try and pick out the days best bets and make them tips - and I also think there was simply an element of misfortune in the way things worked out this afternoon…
In terms of the performance of the tips, then Now McGinty got the ball rolling, with a gutsy second at Ascot.
He got in to a bit of a pace battle with Top VIlle Ben - and I suspect that ultimately cost him his chance of winning.
He lost his position at the end of the back straight but was staying on strongly, after the last.
Ridden differently, it’s not hard to think that he would have gone very close…
I expected Down the Highway to go close at Haydock - but he was disappointing.
I can’t offer any excuse for his run - simply, he wasn’t good enough.
It was a similar story with Didtheyleaveuoutto - though my expectation of him, wasn’t as great.
I always thought that Al Dancer and Getaway Trump would take a bit of beating - and it was the former who proved himself a very well handicapped horse…
With Impulsive Star a non runner, it was left to Pobbles Bay and Robinsfrith to try and rescue something in the big race at Haydock.
The former was never really given a chance - ridden way out the back.
However the latter was ridden more prominently - and showed a great attitude after the last, to come home first, in a driving finish.
That could have set things up for the big tip of the day: Politologue - but he was no match for his stablemate, Cyrname.
To be honest, I was a little fearful when I saw the pre-race drift on Politologue - and the market support for Cyrname.
I hoped it was down to their running styles (Cyrname likes to lead, so makes a good in running play) - but it soon became apparent that wasn’t the reason.
In fairness, Cyrname was absolutely brilliant - and put in a performance far better than I thought him capable.
It was a little disappointing that Politologue couldn’t even manage to get second - though from a P&L perspective, it would have made no difference.
The final 2 tips on the day, were even bigger drifters than Politologue - and both ran accordingly !
I was right to take on Kateson at Haydock - however, I picked the wrong horse to side with, as Highland Hunter never threatened to get involved.
Whilst, The Way you Dance, made a strong play for the title of ‘drifter of the season’, at Ascot !
He was 16/1 this morning - but his BSP of 71, more accurately expressed his actual chance of winning !
In fairness, he travelled OK, to a point - but he was beaten as soon as pressure was applied.
I knew he was a little risky - though I wasn’t quite expecting that !
As for the Mentions:
Then Brio Conte set things off, by winning at 25/1 - even though Paul Nichols had said he would need the run ! (a statement which doubtless helped his price !).
That was followed up by Shades of Midnight - who took full advantage of Yanworths under-whelming effort, to run out a very comfortable winner.
The hat-trick of winning Mentions was completed by Calipto - who was another impressive winner.
The only losing Mention on the day, was Terrefort - though he still ran well to finish second, to an ultra impressive Clan des Obeaux…
All in all, I wasn’t too sure what to make of the day - but I know there was at least one subscriber who was very pleased with the way things worked out…
Steve has been with the service for a number of years - and often puts the Mentions in multiples.
I recall that tactic paying off, a few years ago just after Christmas - and it did so again for him today, in spectacular style !
A £1 EW patent apparently paid just over £3K - which just goes to show what can be achieved.
If only I’d made them all tips, then maybe a few more of you would have done the same !
Very well done Steve - whilst for the rest of you, there’s always next week...
TVB.
Daily write-up - Feb 16th
There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ascot, Haydock and
Wincanton in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.
As I said in my ‘Plans for the weekend’ email on Thursday, there is a lot of quality racing taking place today (arguably, too much ! ).
The reasons for that, are simple: we are now just a month away from Cheltenham, and the recent outbreak of equine flu, on the back of a spell of poor weather, means that there are a lot of high class horses, who need to run.
Opportunities after this weekend, will be limited - however, opportunities today, are plentiful !
I literally went through 20 races yesterday - all class 3 or above - trying to find bets for today.
And in truth, I found plenty of horses I fancied (at least one, in most of the races !) - though turning them in to tips, is always a bit trickier…
The main issue is that the prices need to be there - not only when I’m looking (so I can latch on to them) - but also when I come to tip.
Needless to say, the prices of most of my fancies are tighter than I would like - so I have the endless dilemma, of when to tip and when just to Mention…
Hopefully I’ve at least got some of those calls right this afternoon !
Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 9 tips, across 7 races.
It’s a lot - but I could have had quite a few more !
In terms of the write-up, then there simply isn’t the time for me to cover all of the races that I looked at.
My main focus was on Ascot and Haydock - so that’s what I’ve previewed in the write-up.
I also looked at 4 races at Wincanton - and the 2 main races at Gowran - but there just wasn’t sufficient time for me to include my thoughts in the write-up - apologias.
Anyway, hopefully my efforts on the Ascot and Haydock cards will compensate - along with the tips, of course !
Ascot
1:00
Brio Conti is the one of most interest in this race.
He caught my eye last time, on his belated seasonal debut at Sandown.
He travelled really strongly through the race - but didn’t get home.
I’d expect him to improve for that run - and he races from a 2lb lower mark today.
However, Paul Nichols says he’s still likely to need the run - and I can believe that…
Certainly, a similar performance today, will likely see his handicap mark drop below 140 - and I suspect he will be able to do some damage off that.
One for next time, I think...
That being the case, then we are left with an open looking contest.
Umndeni and Tight Call are the 2 I like most - but there is little in their prices.
With at least 3 others of potential interest, this has to be a race to watch…
1:35
The absence of Sanitini (he’d not been vaccinated in the last 6 months), means that this race lacks a proven quality performer.
It also means that it’s a lot more open than would have been the case - despite there being only 5 runners.
Coup de Pinceau looks the weakest of the quintet - but it’s not easy to split the other 4.
I suspect Top Ville Ben has been a little over-rated - and he ideally wants softer ground than he’s going to get today.
Choosing between the other 3 isn’t easy - but I just prefer the claims of Now McGinty.
He was the best of the 3 over hurdles - and seems to have improved for fences.
Certainly, he’s looked good on his 2 most recent outings: finishing runner up in a hot novice chase at Uttoxeter - and then beating De Rasher Counter at Chepstow.
He’s got a great attitude - and Richard Johnson looks the perfect jockey booking for him.
I’m sure he’ll give us a good run for our money - and I reckon he’s just about the most likely winner.
There’s not a lot in his price - but at 7/2, I think he’s worth a small play.
2:10
I’m a little disappointed that I can’t find something to tip in this race, as it doesn’t look overly strong.
In truth, I probably could have found something - but it would be Reikers Island, and there is no margin in an early price of 11/4.
He’s just about the only one in the field on an upward curve - though I don’t think he has a lot in hand of his mark - and he does have a tendency to belt the odd fence.
Of the others, then Calipto is the one that interests me most…
However, he definitely doesn’t have much in hand of his mark - and Charlie Deutsch back in the saddle, means that he loses out on thee 7lb allowance, which has helped his last 2 wins.
He could still possibly be worthy of support (currently 9/1) - maybe EW , if all 8 go to post - as I think he will run his race and this isn’t the strongest of contests.
2:45
This effectively looks a 2 horse race, between Clan des Obeaux and Terrefort - and I got very close to tipping the latter.
In truth, it would only have taken a slight drift in his price, out to 11/4, and I would have been prepared to get involved.
The trouble is, you are gambling to a large extent, on how fit the horses are.
My feeling is that Terrefort will be more tuned than Clan des Obeaux - but it is a guess.
I’ve no doubt that the market will advise close to the off - and if Clan des Obeaux isn’t fully tuned, I would expect his price to drift.
In terms of absolute ability, then I suspect that there isn’t a great deal between the pair.
Clan des Obeaux is probably the sightly more talented animal - but that may well not be the deciding factor this afternoon.
For those of you who like to play at short odds, then 5/2 Terrefort is probably not a bad bet.
However, officially speaking, this is a watching race…
3:20
The extent to which novices now dominate this race, has become a bit silly…
Historically, this was just about the biggest 2 mile handicap hurdle in the calendar - contested by high class, seasoned, handicappers.
However, that started to change few years back - and now, it would appear, only talented novices need apply !
It’s not hard to understand why.
The handicapper hasn’t had time to properly assess most novices - so they often have ratings that don’t yet match their ability.
It makes sense to try and exploit that situation, when there is a big pot on offer…
Todays pot isn't quite as big as it was supposed to be (the race has been rescheduled from last weeks cancelled Newbury card) - but it is still worth winning.
And amazingly, novices occupy the top 6 places in the betting.
Undoubtedly, Al Dancer and Getaway Trump, are the ones to beat - but at around 3/1, neither can be supported.
I wouldn’t have been so keen on Didtheyleaveuouto , if the race had been run last week - but he’s won his 2 races at Ascot, so the switch of venue has definitely done him a favour.
Whether he’ll be good enough to beat the market leaders, remains to be seen.
However, I suspect he’s high class novice (certainly a fair bit better than his current rating of 139) - and he’s now running under ideal conditions.
Furthermore, he’s been priced up at around 9/1 - and at those odds, he’s worth a small risk.
Of those at bigger prices, then Nordic Combined is the most interesting.
He’s also a novice (no surprise there!) - and is sporting a first time visor today.
He may not quite last home, but I think he could make a decent in running play.
3:55
This is a cracking race - and I think Politologue is very much the one to beat.
He’s a top class performer, who will get his ideal conditions this afternoon: 2m4f; good ground; a flat track and right handed.
He faces some very talented rivals - but non of them will be as well suited to todays conditions, as he will and I think he will take plenty of beating…
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race behind Waiting Patiently - and he is definitely the one to beat.
However, there is precious little between the 2 horses - and I suspect the relatively quick ground will edge things in Politologues favour.
He should also be sharper than Waiting Patiently, as the latter is yet to complete a race this season…
Fox Norton would be a huge danger - if back to his best - however, he has only run once previously this season and still has a fair bit to prove, on his return from injury.
Cyrname is likely to make the running - but I’ll be amazed if he can take this field apart in the same way he did last time, when facing a relatively modest bunch of handicappers.
In all probability he will just set things up for one of the others.
Aso and Charbel are both decent performers - but they aren’t quite in the class of Politologue or Waiting Patiently.
In ideal conditions , I’ll be very surprised (and disappointed !), if Poloitologue doesn’t go very close indeed…
4:30
It’s not easy to get a handle on all of the runners in this big field - but I think it’s worth taking a small chance on The way you Dance…
He’s not run over hurdles for over a year - but he’s run on the flat during that period: winning twice, with his rating rising by 12lb.
He actually won on his last run over hurdles - and generally, has an excellent strike rate in handicap hurdles (3 from 6).
He will have no issue with todays relatively quick ground - and I like the booking of a 3lb claimer.
He already had a decent weight to carry - but a further 3lb will definitely help.
I also like the fact that he was given a pipe opener on the flat, just a few weeks ago.
He was also ridden that day, as if gaining fitness was the prime objective…
In short, I can see a lot of positives in his profile - and whilst I can’t be sure about all of his rivals, I think he is worth a risk at a relatively big price.
Plenty of the others could be of interest: non more so than Another Emotion.
I tipped him on his penultimate run, when he finished second. I’m sure he can win a race off his current mark - and the application of first time cheek pieces is interesting.
However, I think he needs softer ground than he will get today - and I would expect Dickie to be in the saddle if he was really fancied.
He’s maybe worth saving stakes on, just in case - but officially speaking all of the eggs are in the basket of The way you Dance !
Haydock
12:50
I briefly considered taking a chance on Capone in this…
He caught my eye on his debut, when running in a grade 2 event at Doncaster.
He travelled nicely in that race, until lack of experience and condition, caught him out over the final 2 flights.
He won his next outing, at Ludlow - but that wasn’t a strong race, and he struggled a bit, to justify odds of 4/6.
I don’t think that run was a true reflation of his ability - and I would expect him to perform to a higher level today.
The trouble is, he’ll need to that - just to avoid finishing last !
On the book, he has no chance of beating Quel Destin, as he was beaten 12 lengths by him at Doncaster and is a couple of pounds worse off today.
I might be prepared to ignore that - but I think we need to look to the horizon…
Quel Destin is potentially a Triumph hurdle horse - and if Capone beats him today (or even runs him close) - that’s the race he will need to contest.
If however, he runs creditable - but is comfortably beaten, then he should get a handicap rating that will enable him to compete in the Fred winter, at the festival.
I suspect the second scenario is how things will pan out - though I may have a tiny wager on Capone, just in case !
1:55
I’d quite like to take on Yanworth in this - but I can’t find anything suitable to do so with…
I’ve no real issue with Yanworth - but I suspect he will come on plenty for todays outing, having not run since last March.
The trouble is, he has at least a stone in hand of most of todays rivals - and non of them are going to be competing in ideal conditions this afternoon.
On ratings, Clyne should present the biggest danger - however, he would prefer softer ground and a shorter trip.
The ground is also likely to be an issue for Donnas Diamond - and possibly, for a Shade of Midnight…
I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping the last named: however he has 20lb to find with Yanworth on official ratings - and that really should be too much.
Ultimately, I decided that Yanworth’s class will probably get him home in front - and if it doesn’t, then it’s anyones guess as to what will win.
In the circumstances, I feel it’s a race best watched !
2:55
I do like Down the Highway in this…
He’s a novice, who is making his handicap debut today, after just 3 runs over hurdles.
2 of those runs were really good.
He won on his rules debut at Lingfield - and was a very creditable fourth last time, in a hot novice hurdle at Chepstow.
Sandwiched in between those run, he was a very disappointing favourite for a grade 2 event at Sandown.
We have to be prepared to ignore that run - but the fact he has already bounced back from it, makes that a relatively easy thing to do…
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - but as a former PTP winner, that could easily bring about improvement.
His opening mark of 133 looks very fair - whist the fact that his trainer (Emma Lavelle) has a 33% strike rate at Haydock (6 from 18), is another positive…
Most of his rivals are far more exposed - and if Down the Highway is as good as I think, then he should be able to take care of them.
Fingers crossed !
3:35
I think that the unseasonably quick ground, provides a strong angle into this race…
Many of the runners - including a few of the market leaders - would much prefer soft/heavy ground and I suspect today conditions will catch them out…
The way I’ve decided to tackle the race, is by spreading stakes across 3 horses who I think will handle the ground.
My main fancy for the race, is Impulsive Star.
He provided one of our seasons high-lights so far, when winning last time at Warwick.
He’s been raised 6lb for that win - but I suspect he’s got a fair bit more in the tank.
Certainly, a rating of 139 doesn’t look overly harsh in absolute terms - particularly in the context of his run on last seasons NH chase at the Cheltenham festival.
The second one of interest, is Pobbles Boy.
He is on the current list of eye catchers - and simply, is too well handicapped to leave alone.
He’s not run for 3 months, which is a worry - though apparently the plan was to run him in the Welsh National over Christmas.
However, his rating has dropped to such an extent, he didn’t make the cut for that race !
There is little doubt in my mind that he is the best handicapped horse in the race - and whilst the trip is a slight concern, is he jumps around cleanly and him stamina holds out, I think he’s the one to beat.
The final one I want on side, is favourite, Robinsfirth.
He ran really well last time, when runner up to Wakanda.
The 2lb weight pull should make is close between the pair today - however, that was Robinsfirths seasonal debut ,so I would expect him to make greater improvement.
I also think he will be better suited by todays underfoot conditions…
In summary, whilst I could have just gone EW on my strongest fancy, that approach is more susceptible to the vagaries of luck.
Having 3 selections, all suited by conditions, give us a strong hand in the race.
Hopefully one of them will manage to come home in front…
4:10
Kateson is the most likely winner of this race - but this could be a very strong contest.
Furthermore, he is unproven over todays trip - and would prefer softer ground.
In the circumstances, he can’t be entertained at a price of 2/1…
Instead, I’m going to take a risk on Highland Hunter.
He caught my eye last time, when finishing third in an open handcip over todays course and distance.
The most striking thing about his run that day, was the fact that he managed to go close to winning, despite refusing to settle for most of the race.
That suggested that he has a lot of talent - whether he has enough to win today race, is a different matter - but I do think he’s been under-estimated in the betting.
In truth, it’s a race where you can’t be overly adamant about anything.
Virtually all of the runners are improving fast - so form in the book doesn’t count for a great deal.
Stoney Mountain, Lisnagar Oscar and Ask Ben, are 3 others of potential interest - though all 3 were significantly shorter in the betting than Highland Hunter.
Truckin Away is the other one I considered siding with, as he was also a 14/1 shot.
However, I just prefer the claims of Highland Hunter and didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to warrant supporting 2 in the race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 1:35 Now McGinty 1pt win 7/2
Asc 3:20 Didtheyletuoutto 0.5pt win 9/1
Asc 3:55 Politologue 1.5pt win 7/2
Asc 4:30 The way you Dance 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 2:55 Down the Highway 1pt win 13/2
Hayd 3:35 Impulsive Star 1pt win 9/1
Hayd 3:35 Pobbles Bay 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 3:35 Robinsfirth 0.5pt win 8/1
Hayd 4:10 Highland Hunter 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Asc 1:00 Brio Conte (C )
Asc 2:10 Calipto (C )
Asc 2:45 Terrefort (S )
Hayd 1:55 Shades of Midnight (O )
Dobbers
Asc 3:20 Nordic Combined
As I said in my ‘Plans for the weekend’ email on Thursday, there is a lot of quality racing taking place today (arguably, too much ! ).
The reasons for that, are simple: we are now just a month away from Cheltenham, and the recent outbreak of equine flu, on the back of a spell of poor weather, means that there are a lot of high class horses, who need to run.
Opportunities after this weekend, will be limited - however, opportunities today, are plentiful !
I literally went through 20 races yesterday - all class 3 or above - trying to find bets for today.
And in truth, I found plenty of horses I fancied (at least one, in most of the races !) - though turning them in to tips, is always a bit trickier…
The main issue is that the prices need to be there - not only when I’m looking (so I can latch on to them) - but also when I come to tip.
Needless to say, the prices of most of my fancies are tighter than I would like - so I have the endless dilemma, of when to tip and when just to Mention…
Hopefully I’ve at least got some of those calls right this afternoon !
Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 9 tips, across 7 races.
It’s a lot - but I could have had quite a few more !
In terms of the write-up, then there simply isn’t the time for me to cover all of the races that I looked at.
My main focus was on Ascot and Haydock - so that’s what I’ve previewed in the write-up.
I also looked at 4 races at Wincanton - and the 2 main races at Gowran - but there just wasn’t sufficient time for me to include my thoughts in the write-up - apologias.
Anyway, hopefully my efforts on the Ascot and Haydock cards will compensate - along with the tips, of course !
Ascot
1:00
Brio Conti is the one of most interest in this race.
He caught my eye last time, on his belated seasonal debut at Sandown.
He travelled really strongly through the race - but didn’t get home.
I’d expect him to improve for that run - and he races from a 2lb lower mark today.
However, Paul Nichols says he’s still likely to need the run - and I can believe that…
Certainly, a similar performance today, will likely see his handicap mark drop below 140 - and I suspect he will be able to do some damage off that.
One for next time, I think...
That being the case, then we are left with an open looking contest.
Umndeni and Tight Call are the 2 I like most - but there is little in their prices.
With at least 3 others of potential interest, this has to be a race to watch…
1:35
The absence of Sanitini (he’d not been vaccinated in the last 6 months), means that this race lacks a proven quality performer.
It also means that it’s a lot more open than would have been the case - despite there being only 5 runners.
Coup de Pinceau looks the weakest of the quintet - but it’s not easy to split the other 4.
I suspect Top Ville Ben has been a little over-rated - and he ideally wants softer ground than he’s going to get today.
Choosing between the other 3 isn’t easy - but I just prefer the claims of Now McGinty.
He was the best of the 3 over hurdles - and seems to have improved for fences.
Certainly, he’s looked good on his 2 most recent outings: finishing runner up in a hot novice chase at Uttoxeter - and then beating De Rasher Counter at Chepstow.
He’s got a great attitude - and Richard Johnson looks the perfect jockey booking for him.
I’m sure he’ll give us a good run for our money - and I reckon he’s just about the most likely winner.
There’s not a lot in his price - but at 7/2, I think he’s worth a small play.
2:10
I’m a little disappointed that I can’t find something to tip in this race, as it doesn’t look overly strong.
In truth, I probably could have found something - but it would be Reikers Island, and there is no margin in an early price of 11/4.
He’s just about the only one in the field on an upward curve - though I don’t think he has a lot in hand of his mark - and he does have a tendency to belt the odd fence.
Of the others, then Calipto is the one that interests me most…
However, he definitely doesn’t have much in hand of his mark - and Charlie Deutsch back in the saddle, means that he loses out on thee 7lb allowance, which has helped his last 2 wins.
He could still possibly be worthy of support (currently 9/1) - maybe EW , if all 8 go to post - as I think he will run his race and this isn’t the strongest of contests.
2:45
This effectively looks a 2 horse race, between Clan des Obeaux and Terrefort - and I got very close to tipping the latter.
In truth, it would only have taken a slight drift in his price, out to 11/4, and I would have been prepared to get involved.
The trouble is, you are gambling to a large extent, on how fit the horses are.
My feeling is that Terrefort will be more tuned than Clan des Obeaux - but it is a guess.
I’ve no doubt that the market will advise close to the off - and if Clan des Obeaux isn’t fully tuned, I would expect his price to drift.
In terms of absolute ability, then I suspect that there isn’t a great deal between the pair.
Clan des Obeaux is probably the sightly more talented animal - but that may well not be the deciding factor this afternoon.
For those of you who like to play at short odds, then 5/2 Terrefort is probably not a bad bet.
However, officially speaking, this is a watching race…
3:20
The extent to which novices now dominate this race, has become a bit silly…
Historically, this was just about the biggest 2 mile handicap hurdle in the calendar - contested by high class, seasoned, handicappers.
However, that started to change few years back - and now, it would appear, only talented novices need apply !
It’s not hard to understand why.
The handicapper hasn’t had time to properly assess most novices - so they often have ratings that don’t yet match their ability.
It makes sense to try and exploit that situation, when there is a big pot on offer…
Todays pot isn't quite as big as it was supposed to be (the race has been rescheduled from last weeks cancelled Newbury card) - but it is still worth winning.
And amazingly, novices occupy the top 6 places in the betting.
Undoubtedly, Al Dancer and Getaway Trump, are the ones to beat - but at around 3/1, neither can be supported.
I wouldn’t have been so keen on Didtheyleaveuouto , if the race had been run last week - but he’s won his 2 races at Ascot, so the switch of venue has definitely done him a favour.
Whether he’ll be good enough to beat the market leaders, remains to be seen.
However, I suspect he’s high class novice (certainly a fair bit better than his current rating of 139) - and he’s now running under ideal conditions.
Furthermore, he’s been priced up at around 9/1 - and at those odds, he’s worth a small risk.
Of those at bigger prices, then Nordic Combined is the most interesting.
He’s also a novice (no surprise there!) - and is sporting a first time visor today.
He may not quite last home, but I think he could make a decent in running play.
3:55
This is a cracking race - and I think Politologue is very much the one to beat.
He’s a top class performer, who will get his ideal conditions this afternoon: 2m4f; good ground; a flat track and right handed.
He faces some very talented rivals - but non of them will be as well suited to todays conditions, as he will and I think he will take plenty of beating…
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race behind Waiting Patiently - and he is definitely the one to beat.
However, there is precious little between the 2 horses - and I suspect the relatively quick ground will edge things in Politologues favour.
He should also be sharper than Waiting Patiently, as the latter is yet to complete a race this season…
Fox Norton would be a huge danger - if back to his best - however, he has only run once previously this season and still has a fair bit to prove, on his return from injury.
Cyrname is likely to make the running - but I’ll be amazed if he can take this field apart in the same way he did last time, when facing a relatively modest bunch of handicappers.
In all probability he will just set things up for one of the others.
Aso and Charbel are both decent performers - but they aren’t quite in the class of Politologue or Waiting Patiently.
In ideal conditions , I’ll be very surprised (and disappointed !), if Poloitologue doesn’t go very close indeed…
4:30
It’s not easy to get a handle on all of the runners in this big field - but I think it’s worth taking a small chance on The way you Dance…
He’s not run over hurdles for over a year - but he’s run on the flat during that period: winning twice, with his rating rising by 12lb.
He actually won on his last run over hurdles - and generally, has an excellent strike rate in handicap hurdles (3 from 6).
He will have no issue with todays relatively quick ground - and I like the booking of a 3lb claimer.
He already had a decent weight to carry - but a further 3lb will definitely help.
I also like the fact that he was given a pipe opener on the flat, just a few weeks ago.
He was also ridden that day, as if gaining fitness was the prime objective…
In short, I can see a lot of positives in his profile - and whilst I can’t be sure about all of his rivals, I think he is worth a risk at a relatively big price.
Plenty of the others could be of interest: non more so than Another Emotion.
I tipped him on his penultimate run, when he finished second. I’m sure he can win a race off his current mark - and the application of first time cheek pieces is interesting.
However, I think he needs softer ground than he will get today - and I would expect Dickie to be in the saddle if he was really fancied.
He’s maybe worth saving stakes on, just in case - but officially speaking all of the eggs are in the basket of The way you Dance !
Haydock
12:50
I briefly considered taking a chance on Capone in this…
He caught my eye on his debut, when running in a grade 2 event at Doncaster.
He travelled nicely in that race, until lack of experience and condition, caught him out over the final 2 flights.
He won his next outing, at Ludlow - but that wasn’t a strong race, and he struggled a bit, to justify odds of 4/6.
I don’t think that run was a true reflation of his ability - and I would expect him to perform to a higher level today.
The trouble is, he’ll need to that - just to avoid finishing last !
On the book, he has no chance of beating Quel Destin, as he was beaten 12 lengths by him at Doncaster and is a couple of pounds worse off today.
I might be prepared to ignore that - but I think we need to look to the horizon…
Quel Destin is potentially a Triumph hurdle horse - and if Capone beats him today (or even runs him close) - that’s the race he will need to contest.
If however, he runs creditable - but is comfortably beaten, then he should get a handicap rating that will enable him to compete in the Fred winter, at the festival.
I suspect the second scenario is how things will pan out - though I may have a tiny wager on Capone, just in case !
1:55
I’d quite like to take on Yanworth in this - but I can’t find anything suitable to do so with…
I’ve no real issue with Yanworth - but I suspect he will come on plenty for todays outing, having not run since last March.
The trouble is, he has at least a stone in hand of most of todays rivals - and non of them are going to be competing in ideal conditions this afternoon.
On ratings, Clyne should present the biggest danger - however, he would prefer softer ground and a shorter trip.
The ground is also likely to be an issue for Donnas Diamond - and possibly, for a Shade of Midnight…
I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping the last named: however he has 20lb to find with Yanworth on official ratings - and that really should be too much.
Ultimately, I decided that Yanworth’s class will probably get him home in front - and if it doesn’t, then it’s anyones guess as to what will win.
In the circumstances, I feel it’s a race best watched !
2:55
I do like Down the Highway in this…
He’s a novice, who is making his handicap debut today, after just 3 runs over hurdles.
2 of those runs were really good.
He won on his rules debut at Lingfield - and was a very creditable fourth last time, in a hot novice hurdle at Chepstow.
Sandwiched in between those run, he was a very disappointing favourite for a grade 2 event at Sandown.
We have to be prepared to ignore that run - but the fact he has already bounced back from it, makes that a relatively easy thing to do…
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - but as a former PTP winner, that could easily bring about improvement.
His opening mark of 133 looks very fair - whist the fact that his trainer (Emma Lavelle) has a 33% strike rate at Haydock (6 from 18), is another positive…
Most of his rivals are far more exposed - and if Down the Highway is as good as I think, then he should be able to take care of them.
Fingers crossed !
3:35
I think that the unseasonably quick ground, provides a strong angle into this race…
Many of the runners - including a few of the market leaders - would much prefer soft/heavy ground and I suspect today conditions will catch them out…
The way I’ve decided to tackle the race, is by spreading stakes across 3 horses who I think will handle the ground.
My main fancy for the race, is Impulsive Star.
He provided one of our seasons high-lights so far, when winning last time at Warwick.
He’s been raised 6lb for that win - but I suspect he’s got a fair bit more in the tank.
Certainly, a rating of 139 doesn’t look overly harsh in absolute terms - particularly in the context of his run on last seasons NH chase at the Cheltenham festival.
The second one of interest, is Pobbles Boy.
He is on the current list of eye catchers - and simply, is too well handicapped to leave alone.
He’s not run for 3 months, which is a worry - though apparently the plan was to run him in the Welsh National over Christmas.
However, his rating has dropped to such an extent, he didn’t make the cut for that race !
There is little doubt in my mind that he is the best handicapped horse in the race - and whilst the trip is a slight concern, is he jumps around cleanly and him stamina holds out, I think he’s the one to beat.
The final one I want on side, is favourite, Robinsfirth.
He ran really well last time, when runner up to Wakanda.
The 2lb weight pull should make is close between the pair today - however, that was Robinsfirths seasonal debut ,so I would expect him to make greater improvement.
I also think he will be better suited by todays underfoot conditions…
In summary, whilst I could have just gone EW on my strongest fancy, that approach is more susceptible to the vagaries of luck.
Having 3 selections, all suited by conditions, give us a strong hand in the race.
Hopefully one of them will manage to come home in front…
4:10
Kateson is the most likely winner of this race - but this could be a very strong contest.
Furthermore, he is unproven over todays trip - and would prefer softer ground.
In the circumstances, he can’t be entertained at a price of 2/1…
Instead, I’m going to take a risk on Highland Hunter.
He caught my eye last time, when finishing third in an open handcip over todays course and distance.
The most striking thing about his run that day, was the fact that he managed to go close to winning, despite refusing to settle for most of the race.
That suggested that he has a lot of talent - whether he has enough to win today race, is a different matter - but I do think he’s been under-estimated in the betting.
In truth, it’s a race where you can’t be overly adamant about anything.
Virtually all of the runners are improving fast - so form in the book doesn’t count for a great deal.
Stoney Mountain, Lisnagar Oscar and Ask Ben, are 3 others of potential interest - though all 3 were significantly shorter in the betting than Highland Hunter.
Truckin Away is the other one I considered siding with, as he was also a 14/1 shot.
However, I just prefer the claims of Highland Hunter and didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to warrant supporting 2 in the race.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 1:35 Now McGinty 1pt win 7/2
Asc 3:20 Didtheyletuoutto 0.5pt win 9/1
Asc 3:55 Politologue 1.5pt win 7/2
Asc 4:30 The way you Dance 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 2:55 Down the Highway 1pt win 13/2
Hayd 3:35 Impulsive Star 1pt win 9/1
Hayd 3:35 Pobbles Bay 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 3:35 Robinsfirth 0.5pt win 8/1
Hayd 4:10 Highland Hunter 0.5pt win 14/1
Mentions
Asc 1:00 Brio Conte (C )
Asc 2:10 Calipto (C )
Asc 2:45 Terrefort (S )
Hayd 1:55 Shades of Midnight (O )
Dobbers
Asc 3:20 Nordic Combined
Sunday 10 February 2019
Review of the day
There was no joy for Agent Boru this afternoon - and in
truth, it all looked a bit much for him…
That’s always a danger when you support a novice against seasoned handicappers - and simply, he didn’t look up to the job.
He started in the back half of the field - and raced out wide.
However he was never travelling particularly well and when jumping errors began to creep in, it was soon all over.
The race was won by Dounikos - a horse I’ve tipped many time in the past (at least 3 !).
I knew he had the ability to win a race like todays - but he’d shown very little this season and you can’t follow them indefinitely…
Earlier in the afternoon, La Sorelita ran a similar race, to her first two starts in Ireland.
She seemed to be travelling well enough approaching the straight - but was quickly beaten, once the pace increased.
She would definitely be worth trying over further - though there is also the possibility that she may have a physical issue.
In the novice chase, Dr Mikey tried to take a few of the fences home with him - and that’s never a good idea !
His jumping was flawless on his debut - but he made mistakes last time - and again this afternoon.
Unsurprisingly, he finished well beaten.
The race was won by Riders inthe Storm, who got the better of favourite, Impact Factor…
Roll on next weekend !
TVB.
That’s always a danger when you support a novice against seasoned handicappers - and simply, he didn’t look up to the job.
He started in the back half of the field - and raced out wide.
However he was never travelling particularly well and when jumping errors began to creep in, it was soon all over.
The race was won by Dounikos - a horse I’ve tipped many time in the past (at least 3 !).
I knew he had the ability to win a race like todays - but he’d shown very little this season and you can’t follow them indefinitely…
Earlier in the afternoon, La Sorelita ran a similar race, to her first two starts in Ireland.
She seemed to be travelling well enough approaching the straight - but was quickly beaten, once the pace increased.
She would definitely be worth trying over further - though there is also the possibility that she may have a physical issue.
In the novice chase, Dr Mikey tried to take a few of the fences home with him - and that’s never a good idea !
His jumping was flawless on his debut - but he made mistakes last time - and again this afternoon.
Unsurprisingly, he finished well beaten.
The race was won by Riders inthe Storm, who got the better of favourite, Impact Factor…
Roll on next weekend !
TVB.
Daily write-up - Feb 10th
As with yesterday, there is just the one NH meeting today: at
Punchestown in Ireland…
Thankfully, there has been some positive news on the equine flu front - with the first 1500 samples, having tested negative for the disease.
Hopefully that trend will continue…
As for today: then the meeting at Punchestown is similar to yesterdays meeting at Naas - but with a little more quality…
The feature race is 100K Grand National trial - a race which I’ve tipped the winner of, for the past couple of seasons.
In the circumstances, it would have been a bit rude, to not at least try for the hattrick !
Aside from that however, there isn’t really anything which I felt either particularly strongly about - or had the confidence that the market would be able to cope with me tipping in !
As a consequence, there is just the one tip on the day - plus some thoughts on a couple of the other races…
Punchestown
2:20
I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping La Sorelita in this…
The main attraction with her, is the fact that she receives a huge amount of weight from the 2 market leaders: Chosen Mate and Prince D’Aubrelle.
The pair of them have to concede her a massive 21lb - made up of a weight for age allowance; a sex allowance and a winners penalty.
Instinctively, I feel that is too much - though I am guessing…
It’s not easy to get a handle on La Sorelitas form.
She’s only run twice in Ireland - and whilst she hasn’t performed too badly on either occasion, she has run a bit below expectations…
On both runs, she was left behind when the pace quickened - and then stayed on late.
My feeling is that she may need a step up in trip, to be seen her at her best.
In truth, it’s not too easy to get a handle on the form of the market leaders, either.
Chosen Mate was an impressive winner of his sole run under rules; whilst Prince D’Aubrelle won last time (after a huge absence) - but hasn’t been seen May.
The trouble is, they represent Elliott and Mullins - so their stables will have a good handle on their ability and readiness.
Certainly, it would be hard to take them on, with much confidence…
Top Moon is the final one of interest in the race - but he is making his hurdling debut (having run very well on his sole bumper start).
The bottom line is that there is just too much guesswork required to warrant getting seriously involved with the race.
3:50
I feel that this race is a little more open than the betting suggests…
Impact Factor has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst I can understand him heading the market, his price of 5/4 seems too short.
The form of his recent second to Cilaos Emery is strong, in the context of this race - but it doesn’t put him miles ahead of his rivals.
Riders onthe Storm is the obvious one to take him on with; but if I were to get involved with the race, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on Dr Mikey.
He was a decent hurdler, but looked as if he had improved for fences, when making all on his chasing debut at Gowran back in November.
He disappointed on his only subsequent start, at Navan in December - but that was in a Grade 3 contest - and he wasn’t able to dominate.
Back down in grade - and having been given a couple of months to freshen up - he could be hard to peg back, if he gets into a rhythm at the head of affairs.
Celtic Rising is the other one worthy of a mention.
He fell on his chasing debut (which is most unusual for a Henry de Bromhead trained horse) - but hopefully that won’t have left a mark.
He’s the least exposed runner in the field - but did win a PTP before he started racing under rules.
He showed fair hurdles form last season - and whilst he would need to step up on that to figure here, it’s quite possible that he will do just that.
At 18/1 he could be worth a small speculative play…
4:20
I was a bit disappointed to see, that the 3 horses who I was initially interested in for this race (Baie des Ilses was one of them), weren’t declared at the overnight stage.
In their absence, the race looks very open - and it’s little surprise to see the market headed by the apparent first strings from the Mullins and Elliott camps (Some Neck and General Principal) - along with a couple of horses with interesting jockey bookings (Solumn Grundy and Kilkishen).
The other one at the head of the market, is Fitzhenry - who is the form choice, based on his third pace in the Thystes chase…
All 5 clearly have a chance - but equally, they’ve not been missed by the market…
Agent Boru had been missed by the market (at least when I first spotted him !) - and whilst he has lots to prove, he also has a profile which suggests he could be very interesting…
Todays race will be only his fifth over fences - and his first over a trip in excess of 2m5f.
That second point is of particular interest, as it was when presented with a distance of ground over hurdles last season, that his form improved.
Most notably, when winning a decent novice handicap at the Fairyhouse Easter festival.
He returned over fences at Naas in November, and ran really well to finish fourth in a very hot beginners chase.
The form of that race suggests that he is well treated today, off a mark of 129 (even though he is 4lb out of the handicap).
Clearly he is a risky one - but he does have far more scope for improvement than most of his rivals - and there are good reasons for thinking that he could show improved form today.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth a small play at a decent price.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Punch 4:20 Agent Boru 0.5pt win 16/1
Mentions
Punch 2:20 La Sorelita (S )
Punch 3:50 Dr Mikey (O )
Thankfully, there has been some positive news on the equine flu front - with the first 1500 samples, having tested negative for the disease.
Hopefully that trend will continue…
As for today: then the meeting at Punchestown is similar to yesterdays meeting at Naas - but with a little more quality…
The feature race is 100K Grand National trial - a race which I’ve tipped the winner of, for the past couple of seasons.
In the circumstances, it would have been a bit rude, to not at least try for the hattrick !
Aside from that however, there isn’t really anything which I felt either particularly strongly about - or had the confidence that the market would be able to cope with me tipping in !
As a consequence, there is just the one tip on the day - plus some thoughts on a couple of the other races…
Punchestown
2:20
I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping La Sorelita in this…
The main attraction with her, is the fact that she receives a huge amount of weight from the 2 market leaders: Chosen Mate and Prince D’Aubrelle.
The pair of them have to concede her a massive 21lb - made up of a weight for age allowance; a sex allowance and a winners penalty.
Instinctively, I feel that is too much - though I am guessing…
It’s not easy to get a handle on La Sorelitas form.
She’s only run twice in Ireland - and whilst she hasn’t performed too badly on either occasion, she has run a bit below expectations…
On both runs, she was left behind when the pace quickened - and then stayed on late.
My feeling is that she may need a step up in trip, to be seen her at her best.
In truth, it’s not too easy to get a handle on the form of the market leaders, either.
Chosen Mate was an impressive winner of his sole run under rules; whilst Prince D’Aubrelle won last time (after a huge absence) - but hasn’t been seen May.
The trouble is, they represent Elliott and Mullins - so their stables will have a good handle on their ability and readiness.
Certainly, it would be hard to take them on, with much confidence…
Top Moon is the final one of interest in the race - but he is making his hurdling debut (having run very well on his sole bumper start).
The bottom line is that there is just too much guesswork required to warrant getting seriously involved with the race.
3:50
I feel that this race is a little more open than the betting suggests…
Impact Factor has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst I can understand him heading the market, his price of 5/4 seems too short.
The form of his recent second to Cilaos Emery is strong, in the context of this race - but it doesn’t put him miles ahead of his rivals.
Riders onthe Storm is the obvious one to take him on with; but if I were to get involved with the race, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on Dr Mikey.
He was a decent hurdler, but looked as if he had improved for fences, when making all on his chasing debut at Gowran back in November.
He disappointed on his only subsequent start, at Navan in December - but that was in a Grade 3 contest - and he wasn’t able to dominate.
Back down in grade - and having been given a couple of months to freshen up - he could be hard to peg back, if he gets into a rhythm at the head of affairs.
Celtic Rising is the other one worthy of a mention.
He fell on his chasing debut (which is most unusual for a Henry de Bromhead trained horse) - but hopefully that won’t have left a mark.
He’s the least exposed runner in the field - but did win a PTP before he started racing under rules.
He showed fair hurdles form last season - and whilst he would need to step up on that to figure here, it’s quite possible that he will do just that.
At 18/1 he could be worth a small speculative play…
4:20
I was a bit disappointed to see, that the 3 horses who I was initially interested in for this race (Baie des Ilses was one of them), weren’t declared at the overnight stage.
In their absence, the race looks very open - and it’s little surprise to see the market headed by the apparent first strings from the Mullins and Elliott camps (Some Neck and General Principal) - along with a couple of horses with interesting jockey bookings (Solumn Grundy and Kilkishen).
The other one at the head of the market, is Fitzhenry - who is the form choice, based on his third pace in the Thystes chase…
All 5 clearly have a chance - but equally, they’ve not been missed by the market…
Agent Boru had been missed by the market (at least when I first spotted him !) - and whilst he has lots to prove, he also has a profile which suggests he could be very interesting…
Todays race will be only his fifth over fences - and his first over a trip in excess of 2m5f.
That second point is of particular interest, as it was when presented with a distance of ground over hurdles last season, that his form improved.
Most notably, when winning a decent novice handicap at the Fairyhouse Easter festival.
He returned over fences at Naas in November, and ran really well to finish fourth in a very hot beginners chase.
The form of that race suggests that he is well treated today, off a mark of 129 (even though he is 4lb out of the handicap).
Clearly he is a risky one - but he does have far more scope for improvement than most of his rivals - and there are good reasons for thinking that he could show improved form today.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth a small play at a decent price.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Punch 4:20 Agent Boru 0.5pt win 16/1
Mentions
Punch 2:20 La Sorelita (S )
Punch 3:50 Dr Mikey (O )
Daily write-up - Feb 9th
As we are all painfully aware, there is just the 1 NH meeting
today: at Naas in Ireland.
The outbreak of equine flu, means that there will be no racing in the UK, until Wednesday - at the earliest - and 3 more confirmed cases yesterday, suggest that the target return date, may prove optimistic…
We will only begin to get a better idea of the scale of things, on Monday, when the results of swab samples, start coming back from the labs.
Hopefully, they will show that the issue is contained to a few isolated pockets (ideally, just Donald McCains yard !) - but for now all eventualities are possible…
There is a voice of opinion that says stopping racing - certainly for a prolonged period - is an over-reaction.
In terms of the impact of the disease, then I suspect this is true - however, it is also irrelevant.
The BHA have protocols to deal with such situations - and they aren’t going to deviate from them.
As a consequence, we need to hope that the disease is not widespread - because if it is, we could be in for a long wait before racing returns…
All this means that we are relying on Ireland, for our entertainment - and specifically today, on Naas…
They put on a relatively low key card - made up mainly, of novice events, plus a couple of relatively low grade handicaps.
It’s really not a card that we should be getting heavily involved with - so whilst I have offered views on the 3 main races, if you do back anything, I would suggest keeping stakes to a minimum.
Naas
2:10
Funnily enough, I expected to be getting involved with Baie des Iles this weekend - but not in this race !
She was also amongst the 5 day declarations for the Grand National trial at Punchestown tomorrow - and she featured high on my short list for that race (along with another horse, whose not subsequently been declared to run !).
She's a previous winner of the Grand National trial (when I tipped her) - and also ran third in the corresponding race last year (when rated 3lb higher).
I reckon she would have had a very good chance tomorrow - which is why I’m a little baffled to see her running in this…
The main issue is that this is a 2 mile race - and she’s not a 2 miler !
Most of her recent runs have been over extreme distances (the Grand National trial is over 3m4f) - so it’s difficult to figure out what is going on today…
Her trainer says he hopes she will be sharpened up by the run - and the application of first time blinkers, are likely to make her run more freely.
However, in all probability, she won’t have the pace, so fend off horses who are much better suited to todays trip…
Actually, it’s probably fairer to day that she won’t have the pace to fend off Pravalaguna.
She should be perfectly at home over todays trip - and whilst she has very limited experience over fences, if she does jump round cleanly, she’s likely to be too quick for all of her rivals.
Synopsis may be the one to follow her home - though I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Baie des Iles did plug on for second place…
2:40
Joseph O’Briens has an exceptionally strong crop of juveniles this season, so it’s not too surprising that his Konitho and Band of Outlaws, dominate the market for this.
Both were impressive winners, last time - with the former coming home by 5 lengths on his Irish debut.
My appetite to oppose them is limited - though I do suspect they may have been put in a bit too short (because of the exploits of their stable companions).
If I were to play in the race, it would more likely be on the Gordon Elliott trained Coko Beach.
He made his debut for Elliott in a grade 2 event at the Leopardstown festival over Christmas.
He ran disappointingly that day - but was sent off at just 6/1, which suggests much better was expected…
He can be backed at 6/1 again today - and this is a far weaker event.
It’s also interesting that Jack Kennedy has remained loyal to him, despite Elliott having a second runner in the race, in the shape of Elysian Plains.
3:10
I spent a bit of time on this race, as I figured it the most likely one to yield a tip.
However, I could only manage to narrow it down to 2 - and both are close to the head of the market.
In fact, Scoir Mear is the market leader - and unfortunately, I think he’s the most likely winner !
His most recent outing was in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas - and he finished a creditable tenth, in that top class event.
Todays race is a significant drop in class - and he also drops half a mile in trip - which I think will suit him.
The biggest issue, is a price of 4/1 - though in truth, I’m not sure I’d be prepared to offer any bigger, against generally limited opposition…
The other one I could be interested in, is Velocity Boy.
He’s a horse I’ve followed for quite a while - and I could see him running well today.
I’m certainly pleased that connections are reverting him to 2m4f, having tried to get him to stay an extra mile, on his 2 most recent runs.
I’m far from convinced that he stays any further than 3 miles - so todays trip should prove much more suitable.
Unfortunately, todays ground could be an issue for him, as he would prefer it a fair but softer…
In the circumstances, I therefore feel Scoir Mear is the one to be with.
However, the nature of the race means I feel there is an element of guesswork - and I don’t like guessing at a price of 4/1 !
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Mentions
Naas 2:10 Baie des Iles (without the fav)
Naas 2:40 Coko Beak (O )
Naas 3:10 Scoir Mear (P )
The outbreak of equine flu, means that there will be no racing in the UK, until Wednesday - at the earliest - and 3 more confirmed cases yesterday, suggest that the target return date, may prove optimistic…
We will only begin to get a better idea of the scale of things, on Monday, when the results of swab samples, start coming back from the labs.
Hopefully, they will show that the issue is contained to a few isolated pockets (ideally, just Donald McCains yard !) - but for now all eventualities are possible…
There is a voice of opinion that says stopping racing - certainly for a prolonged period - is an over-reaction.
In terms of the impact of the disease, then I suspect this is true - however, it is also irrelevant.
The BHA have protocols to deal with such situations - and they aren’t going to deviate from them.
As a consequence, we need to hope that the disease is not widespread - because if it is, we could be in for a long wait before racing returns…
All this means that we are relying on Ireland, for our entertainment - and specifically today, on Naas…
They put on a relatively low key card - made up mainly, of novice events, plus a couple of relatively low grade handicaps.
It’s really not a card that we should be getting heavily involved with - so whilst I have offered views on the 3 main races, if you do back anything, I would suggest keeping stakes to a minimum.
Naas
2:10
Funnily enough, I expected to be getting involved with Baie des Iles this weekend - but not in this race !
She was also amongst the 5 day declarations for the Grand National trial at Punchestown tomorrow - and she featured high on my short list for that race (along with another horse, whose not subsequently been declared to run !).
She's a previous winner of the Grand National trial (when I tipped her) - and also ran third in the corresponding race last year (when rated 3lb higher).
I reckon she would have had a very good chance tomorrow - which is why I’m a little baffled to see her running in this…
The main issue is that this is a 2 mile race - and she’s not a 2 miler !
Most of her recent runs have been over extreme distances (the Grand National trial is over 3m4f) - so it’s difficult to figure out what is going on today…
Her trainer says he hopes she will be sharpened up by the run - and the application of first time blinkers, are likely to make her run more freely.
However, in all probability, she won’t have the pace, so fend off horses who are much better suited to todays trip…
Actually, it’s probably fairer to day that she won’t have the pace to fend off Pravalaguna.
She should be perfectly at home over todays trip - and whilst she has very limited experience over fences, if she does jump round cleanly, she’s likely to be too quick for all of her rivals.
Synopsis may be the one to follow her home - though I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Baie des Iles did plug on for second place…
2:40
Joseph O’Briens has an exceptionally strong crop of juveniles this season, so it’s not too surprising that his Konitho and Band of Outlaws, dominate the market for this.
Both were impressive winners, last time - with the former coming home by 5 lengths on his Irish debut.
My appetite to oppose them is limited - though I do suspect they may have been put in a bit too short (because of the exploits of their stable companions).
If I were to play in the race, it would more likely be on the Gordon Elliott trained Coko Beach.
He made his debut for Elliott in a grade 2 event at the Leopardstown festival over Christmas.
He ran disappointingly that day - but was sent off at just 6/1, which suggests much better was expected…
He can be backed at 6/1 again today - and this is a far weaker event.
It’s also interesting that Jack Kennedy has remained loyal to him, despite Elliott having a second runner in the race, in the shape of Elysian Plains.
3:10
I spent a bit of time on this race, as I figured it the most likely one to yield a tip.
However, I could only manage to narrow it down to 2 - and both are close to the head of the market.
In fact, Scoir Mear is the market leader - and unfortunately, I think he’s the most likely winner !
His most recent outing was in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas - and he finished a creditable tenth, in that top class event.
Todays race is a significant drop in class - and he also drops half a mile in trip - which I think will suit him.
The biggest issue, is a price of 4/1 - though in truth, I’m not sure I’d be prepared to offer any bigger, against generally limited opposition…
The other one I could be interested in, is Velocity Boy.
He’s a horse I’ve followed for quite a while - and I could see him running well today.
I’m certainly pleased that connections are reverting him to 2m4f, having tried to get him to stay an extra mile, on his 2 most recent runs.
I’m far from convinced that he stays any further than 3 miles - so todays trip should prove much more suitable.
Unfortunately, todays ground could be an issue for him, as he would prefer it a fair but softer…
In the circumstances, I therefore feel Scoir Mear is the one to be with.
However, the nature of the race means I feel there is an element of guesswork - and I don’t like guessing at a price of 4/1 !
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.
TVB.
Mentions
Naas 2:10 Baie des Iles (without the fav)
Naas 2:40 Coko Beak (O )
Naas 3:10 Scoir Mear (P )
Review of the day
A raft of non runners took much of the gloss off this
afternoons racing at Leopardstown.
Plenty of trainers were unwilling to risk their horses on the unseasonably quick ground and as a result, the racing had a bit of a flat feel.
Unfortunately, only one of the days 5 tips, was withdrawn - which was a shame, considering how poorly the other 4 ran !
Gardens of Babylon was the first to race - and whilst he did manage to finish second, that placing is a bit mis-leading, as he never looked remotely like winning.
He was laboured in the early stages of the race - and his jumping was hesitant.
To his credit, he did manage to stay on late to claim the runner-up spot - but that was a long way behind the winner…
It says much for the day, that his performance was as good as it got, for the tips.
I had quite high hopes for both Triplicate and Entoucas in the novice hurdle - but both ran lamentably…
On form, they should have been right in the mix:
Entoucas had finished second to todays race winner, last time; whilst Triplicate had lots form that tied him in with todays runner-up, Aramon.
However, that counted for nothing, and they were both already beaten, entering the home straight…
With Cap York a non runner, Black Scorpion was the only other tip on the day.
Whilst there was a little speculation involved with him, I felt he was probably the best tip on the day - so it was doubly disappointing to see him beaten at an early stage…
Maybe his last time out fall affected him - certainly his jumping over the first couple of fences wasn’t great.
Whatever the reason, he barely ran a race and was pulled up before the home turn…
As For the Mentions:
Then Le Bague au Roi took advantage of her 7lb allowance and was a game winner of the Flogas chase.
Not only is she very talented, she also had an admirable attitude to racing.
That combination will always be hard to beat.
With Al Boom Photo taken out of the Gold Cup, Cut the Mustard was the only other Mention on the day.
She was nearly a tip - and she nearly won ! (traded at 1.1 in running).
However, she didn’t quite manage to last home, and was over-hauled in the final 100 yards…
Safe to say, there will be better days this season !
TVB.
Plenty of trainers were unwilling to risk their horses on the unseasonably quick ground and as a result, the racing had a bit of a flat feel.
Unfortunately, only one of the days 5 tips, was withdrawn - which was a shame, considering how poorly the other 4 ran !
Gardens of Babylon was the first to race - and whilst he did manage to finish second, that placing is a bit mis-leading, as he never looked remotely like winning.
He was laboured in the early stages of the race - and his jumping was hesitant.
To his credit, he did manage to stay on late to claim the runner-up spot - but that was a long way behind the winner…
It says much for the day, that his performance was as good as it got, for the tips.
I had quite high hopes for both Triplicate and Entoucas in the novice hurdle - but both ran lamentably…
On form, they should have been right in the mix:
Entoucas had finished second to todays race winner, last time; whilst Triplicate had lots form that tied him in with todays runner-up, Aramon.
However, that counted for nothing, and they were both already beaten, entering the home straight…
With Cap York a non runner, Black Scorpion was the only other tip on the day.
Whilst there was a little speculation involved with him, I felt he was probably the best tip on the day - so it was doubly disappointing to see him beaten at an early stage…
Maybe his last time out fall affected him - certainly his jumping over the first couple of fences wasn’t great.
Whatever the reason, he barely ran a race and was pulled up before the home turn…
As For the Mentions:
Then Le Bague au Roi took advantage of her 7lb allowance and was a game winner of the Flogas chase.
Not only is she very talented, she also had an admirable attitude to racing.
That combination will always be hard to beat.
With Al Boom Photo taken out of the Gold Cup, Cut the Mustard was the only other Mention on the day.
She was nearly a tip - and she nearly won ! (traded at 1.1 in running).
However, she didn’t quite manage to last home, and was over-hauled in the final 100 yards…
Safe to say, there will be better days this season !
TVB.
Daily write-up - Feb 3rd
It’s day 2 of the Dublin Racing Festival at
Leopardstown.
The meeting had to survive an early morning inspection - but thankfully it did just that and we will be treated to another excellent afternoons racing.
The going yesterday, looked relatively quick (for the time of year) - and whilst there has been a little rain/sleet overnight, I doubt it will make too much difference to conditions.
I’m sure that a few of your noticed the prices on the tips, going a bit quicker than usual, this morning…
I don’t think that was down to us: as I’ve said previously the Irish markets are very flimsy - and tipping into them early (even in grade 1 events !) is always going to be difficult.
Hopefully you all managed to at least get close to advised prices (within 20%).
I ended up with 5 tips on the day, across 4 races.
In truth, I could have tipped in almost all of the races - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and there is a fair bit of speculation involved with most of the tips, so I don’t want to get too carried away !
That said, I am hopeful that I’ve found at least one or two ‘live ones’ at decent prices - time will tell !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on most of the other races on the card.
Leopardstown
12:40
I’m sure a few of your have noticed that my ‘nearly tips’, tend to do very well.
Obviously, I have to draw the line somewhere - and it’s ridiculous, how often I draw it, one horse too high (think Lord Napier, yesterday !).
Well, for those of you who follow the nearly tips, Cut the Mustard is the one for you this afternoon !
I nearly tipped her - but eventually decided against it…
In a way, I think she’s a bit too obvious !
A Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh horse, who ran really well in a decent handicap last time - and arguably drops in grade this afternoon.
Her prices is fair as well: there may be 17 runners in the race - but realistically, only half a dozen or so have a chance…
So what is the issue?
In part, it’s the price - I would expect her to be shorter, if I’m reading things right - because she is not going to be missed by anyone !
The second concern his that whilst she is exposed - a few of her rivals aren’t. She is therefore vulnerable to an improver.
My final concern is the trip. She steps up to 2m2f today - but I think she will prove best, over at least 2 furlongs further…
I think she has a definite chance: and I would expect her to run well - and quite possibly be placed.
However, I just feel that she could be vulnerable - and 11/2 isn’t a massive price for taking a risk.
As you would expect, most of the likely dangers are at the head of the market - though Countess Cathleen could outrun dismissive odds (around 33/1).
1:15
Sir Erec and Tiger Tap Tap put their weighty reputations on the line in this…
They both made their hurdling debuts in a maiden at Leopardstown over Christmas - with the former coming out on top, by a neck.
It’s nearly impossible to measure the strength of that form - but the market has decided it is far superior to the form of the other runners in the race - and the pair of them dominate the market.
Time may show that’s right - but today, without the benefit of hindsight, they have to be taken on…
There are 2 options for opposing them: firstly via the form of the grade 2 Knight Frank hurdle also run at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That form is represented by Chief Justice (2nd), Got Trumped (3rd) and Coeur Sublime (fell).
The other form line, is a race run at Fairyhouse last month, where Surin just got the better of Gardens of Babylon - and that is the one I’ve chosen to go with…
Gardens of Babylon and Surin were renewing rivalry that day, having met at Punchestown at the end of December.
Gardens of Babylon came out best that day - but Surin got a significant weight pull when they met at Fairyhouse and that enabled her to reverse the form.
Todays weights are the same as they were at Punchestown - so that should see Gardens of Babylon coming out on top…
Of course, it’s rarely that simple - and even if things do work out that way, there are still the 2 other form lines that need to be fended off !
That said, this game is all about price and probability - and I think that Gardens of Babylon is the strongest representative of that form line - and that form line maybe the strongest in the race !
As a consequence, he is worth a risk, at a reasonable price.
1:50
This is another race where the market has decided that a particular form line is by far the strongest in the race - even though there is minimal evidence to support it !
Again, it is being driven by the reputation of the horses involved - and whilst it might be right, the odds on offer mean that a counter view has to be taken…
The form line in question, is a maiden run at Leopardstown at Christmas, where Klassical Dream beat Entoucas, with Dancing on my Own third and Vision D’Honneur fourth.
All 4 meet again this afternoon and the market is adamant that either Klassical Dream or Vision D’Honneur will come out on top.
It’s probably no coincidence that those two repent the big stables of Mullins and Elliott - but on the form book, they aren’t guaranteed to beat Entoucas and Dancing on My Own.
In fact, watching the race, I felt Entoucas was the one to take out of it - so at 9/1, he is definitely worth having on side…
However, for all I respect his chance - I prefer that of his stablemate, Triplicate…
I tipped him early in December, when he finished runner up in a grade 1 at Fairyhouse.
I felt he was a touch unlucky that day, as Ruby stole the race with a masterful front running ride on Quick Grabim.
On the back of that effort, Triplicate was made favourite for a grade 1 race at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, everything went wrong that day - and he finished well beaten.
I think that run can be safely ignored - and based on his earlier form, he has a very big chance in this.
Certainly I think he has the beating of third favourite, Aramon, even though that one beat him last time (which explains why he is much shorter in the betting).
The 2 had met twice previously, with Triplicate coming out on top on both occasions.
Again, this comes down to choosing a form line - and I prefer the grade 1 form of Triplicate and Aramon, to the maiden form of Klassical Dancer and Vision D’Honneur.
Only time will tell whether I am right - but the odds available make it a relatively simple choice.
2:25
I think it is worth taking a chance on Cap York in this.
He has only run 3 times over hurdles in Ireland.
He made his Irish debut at Leopardstown in December 2016 - but then wasn’t seen again until winning a maiden at Navan, almost 2 years later…
His only other run, was in a grade 2 event at Limerick, at the end of last year.
He ran well enough in that race, finishing fourth, just 4 lengths behind the winner.
What is particularly interesting about that run, is that Pleasure Dome finished one place and 3 lengths in front of him that day.
Cap York gets a 5lb pull in the weights today, which should make things very close between them - yet this morning, Cap York was 20/1 and Pleasure Dome 5/1…
Now I don’t suppose that too many of you got 20/1 - but most should have got at least 14/1 - which is still a big price, when compared to that of Pleasure Dome.
Of course this isn’t just a 2 horse race: Cuneo and Dallas de Pcitons are 2 other unexposed horses who could be a long way ahead of their marks.
However, as with Pleasure Dome, they had both been well found in the market.
Cap York hadn't - and consequently, at this mornings price, he was definitely worth a small risk.
3:00
The defection of Delta Work, has robbed this race of a lot of its interest…
I thought he looked vulnerable today and had half a mind to take him on with La Bague au Roi - if I could have got at least 5/2 on the mare.
That’s clearly not going to happen now - so it will just have to be a watching race.
I expect to watch La Bague au Roi win - though she faces 3 very decent rivals, in the shape of Winter Escape, Hardline and Mortal.
I was keen to take on Delta Work because I felt that todays 2m5f trip wouldn't test his stamina sufficiently - I’m not sure that will be the case for La Bague au Rois 3 remaining rivals…
Ofcourse, the key factor - as with Apples Jade yesterday - is the 7lb sex allowance.
La Bague au Roi is probably of similar ability to todays rivals - but she receives a 7lb weight concession from them and that’s likely to prove key.
Of her 3 rivals then Hardline is the one I like most - particularly as he should have no issue with todays trip.
I’m a big fan of Mortal - but I think he wants longer; and whilst Winter Escape was impressive last time, it’s questionable what he beat…
All this said, I don’t expect any of them to be quite good enough to give 7lb to a high class mare, who is currently at the top of her game.
3:35
4 non runners on account of the ground, has spoilt this race - even though I don’t think that any of the 4 would have won !
Al Boom Photo was my idea of the most likely winner - and that remains the case.
However, I viewed Road to Respect and Bellshill as his 2 main dangers - and they both still run (probably !).
The trouble is, the 3 of them completely dominate the betting - and I don’t feel sufficiently confident about the chances of Al Boom Photo to warrant getting involved at a short price (9/4).
Certainly, It makes me a little nervous that Ruby has chosen Bellshill ahead of him: whilst Road to Respect has the best form in the book.
I suspect that Al Boom Photo is capable of improving and beating him - but you’d want more than 9/4 to get involved.
Consequently, this has to be a watching race - though it’s unlikely to be quite the spectacle we expected…
4:10
The key to this race, is likely to be the Paddy Power chase, run at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That race was won in convincing fashion, by Auvegnat - and whilst he isn’t in todays field, Vieux Morvan, Fitzhenry and Any Second Now, are - and they finished second, third and fifth, respectively.
De Names Escapes me and Livelovelaugh both also ran in the race - along with Black Scorpion…
The last named was a faller at the tenth fence - so not much beyond half way.
Ordinarily, I would consider that too far out to assess how a horse was travelling - but trust me, Black Scorpion was absolutely tanking at the time.
In fact, I think it was because he was going so strongly, that he fell.
He jumped the fence too quickly and his momentum took him over.
Provided that fall hasn’t affected his confidence, then if he’s in the same form today, I can’t see him not being involved in the finish.
In fairness, the case for him isn’t based around just one run.
He had looked a big improver earlier in the season, when winning at Listowel and running third in the Munster National.
The 3 mile trip just seemed to find him out in the latter event - so he should be well suited by todays drop back in trip.
Obviously, dangers abound in a 16 runner handicap of this nature.
That said , most of the runners are exposed, so you know what you are taking on.
Speaker Connelly is the exception - but he looks too short in the market.
De Names Escapes Me is the one I fear most - if his jumping holds up.
That said, I’m pretty keen on Black Scorpion - lets just hope that David Mullins can keep his enthusiasm in check !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Leop 1:15 Gardens of Babylon 0.5pt win 15/2
Leop 1:50 Triplicate 1pt win 12/1
Leop 1:50 Entoucas 0.5pt win 9/1
Leop 2:25 Cap York 0.5pt win 16/1
Leop 4:10 Black Scorpion 1pt win 16/1
Mentions
Leop 12:40 Cut the Mustard (O )
Leop 3:00 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 3:35 Al boom Photo (P )
The meeting had to survive an early morning inspection - but thankfully it did just that and we will be treated to another excellent afternoons racing.
The going yesterday, looked relatively quick (for the time of year) - and whilst there has been a little rain/sleet overnight, I doubt it will make too much difference to conditions.
I’m sure that a few of your noticed the prices on the tips, going a bit quicker than usual, this morning…
I don’t think that was down to us: as I’ve said previously the Irish markets are very flimsy - and tipping into them early (even in grade 1 events !) is always going to be difficult.
Hopefully you all managed to at least get close to advised prices (within 20%).
I ended up with 5 tips on the day, across 4 races.
In truth, I could have tipped in almost all of the races - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and there is a fair bit of speculation involved with most of the tips, so I don’t want to get too carried away !
That said, I am hopeful that I’ve found at least one or two ‘live ones’ at decent prices - time will tell !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on most of the other races on the card.
Leopardstown
12:40
I’m sure a few of your have noticed that my ‘nearly tips’, tend to do very well.
Obviously, I have to draw the line somewhere - and it’s ridiculous, how often I draw it, one horse too high (think Lord Napier, yesterday !).
Well, for those of you who follow the nearly tips, Cut the Mustard is the one for you this afternoon !
I nearly tipped her - but eventually decided against it…
In a way, I think she’s a bit too obvious !
A Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh horse, who ran really well in a decent handicap last time - and arguably drops in grade this afternoon.
Her prices is fair as well: there may be 17 runners in the race - but realistically, only half a dozen or so have a chance…
So what is the issue?
In part, it’s the price - I would expect her to be shorter, if I’m reading things right - because she is not going to be missed by anyone !
The second concern his that whilst she is exposed - a few of her rivals aren’t. She is therefore vulnerable to an improver.
My final concern is the trip. She steps up to 2m2f today - but I think she will prove best, over at least 2 furlongs further…
I think she has a definite chance: and I would expect her to run well - and quite possibly be placed.
However, I just feel that she could be vulnerable - and 11/2 isn’t a massive price for taking a risk.
As you would expect, most of the likely dangers are at the head of the market - though Countess Cathleen could outrun dismissive odds (around 33/1).
1:15
Sir Erec and Tiger Tap Tap put their weighty reputations on the line in this…
They both made their hurdling debuts in a maiden at Leopardstown over Christmas - with the former coming out on top, by a neck.
It’s nearly impossible to measure the strength of that form - but the market has decided it is far superior to the form of the other runners in the race - and the pair of them dominate the market.
Time may show that’s right - but today, without the benefit of hindsight, they have to be taken on…
There are 2 options for opposing them: firstly via the form of the grade 2 Knight Frank hurdle also run at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That form is represented by Chief Justice (2nd), Got Trumped (3rd) and Coeur Sublime (fell).
The other form line, is a race run at Fairyhouse last month, where Surin just got the better of Gardens of Babylon - and that is the one I’ve chosen to go with…
Gardens of Babylon and Surin were renewing rivalry that day, having met at Punchestown at the end of December.
Gardens of Babylon came out best that day - but Surin got a significant weight pull when they met at Fairyhouse and that enabled her to reverse the form.
Todays weights are the same as they were at Punchestown - so that should see Gardens of Babylon coming out on top…
Of course, it’s rarely that simple - and even if things do work out that way, there are still the 2 other form lines that need to be fended off !
That said, this game is all about price and probability - and I think that Gardens of Babylon is the strongest representative of that form line - and that form line maybe the strongest in the race !
As a consequence, he is worth a risk, at a reasonable price.
1:50
This is another race where the market has decided that a particular form line is by far the strongest in the race - even though there is minimal evidence to support it !
Again, it is being driven by the reputation of the horses involved - and whilst it might be right, the odds on offer mean that a counter view has to be taken…
The form line in question, is a maiden run at Leopardstown at Christmas, where Klassical Dream beat Entoucas, with Dancing on my Own third and Vision D’Honneur fourth.
All 4 meet again this afternoon and the market is adamant that either Klassical Dream or Vision D’Honneur will come out on top.
It’s probably no coincidence that those two repent the big stables of Mullins and Elliott - but on the form book, they aren’t guaranteed to beat Entoucas and Dancing on My Own.
In fact, watching the race, I felt Entoucas was the one to take out of it - so at 9/1, he is definitely worth having on side…
However, for all I respect his chance - I prefer that of his stablemate, Triplicate…
I tipped him early in December, when he finished runner up in a grade 1 at Fairyhouse.
I felt he was a touch unlucky that day, as Ruby stole the race with a masterful front running ride on Quick Grabim.
On the back of that effort, Triplicate was made favourite for a grade 1 race at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, everything went wrong that day - and he finished well beaten.
I think that run can be safely ignored - and based on his earlier form, he has a very big chance in this.
Certainly I think he has the beating of third favourite, Aramon, even though that one beat him last time (which explains why he is much shorter in the betting).
The 2 had met twice previously, with Triplicate coming out on top on both occasions.
Again, this comes down to choosing a form line - and I prefer the grade 1 form of Triplicate and Aramon, to the maiden form of Klassical Dancer and Vision D’Honneur.
Only time will tell whether I am right - but the odds available make it a relatively simple choice.
2:25
I think it is worth taking a chance on Cap York in this.
He has only run 3 times over hurdles in Ireland.
He made his Irish debut at Leopardstown in December 2016 - but then wasn’t seen again until winning a maiden at Navan, almost 2 years later…
His only other run, was in a grade 2 event at Limerick, at the end of last year.
He ran well enough in that race, finishing fourth, just 4 lengths behind the winner.
What is particularly interesting about that run, is that Pleasure Dome finished one place and 3 lengths in front of him that day.
Cap York gets a 5lb pull in the weights today, which should make things very close between them - yet this morning, Cap York was 20/1 and Pleasure Dome 5/1…
Now I don’t suppose that too many of you got 20/1 - but most should have got at least 14/1 - which is still a big price, when compared to that of Pleasure Dome.
Of course this isn’t just a 2 horse race: Cuneo and Dallas de Pcitons are 2 other unexposed horses who could be a long way ahead of their marks.
However, as with Pleasure Dome, they had both been well found in the market.
Cap York hadn't - and consequently, at this mornings price, he was definitely worth a small risk.
3:00
The defection of Delta Work, has robbed this race of a lot of its interest…
I thought he looked vulnerable today and had half a mind to take him on with La Bague au Roi - if I could have got at least 5/2 on the mare.
That’s clearly not going to happen now - so it will just have to be a watching race.
I expect to watch La Bague au Roi win - though she faces 3 very decent rivals, in the shape of Winter Escape, Hardline and Mortal.
I was keen to take on Delta Work because I felt that todays 2m5f trip wouldn't test his stamina sufficiently - I’m not sure that will be the case for La Bague au Rois 3 remaining rivals…
Ofcourse, the key factor - as with Apples Jade yesterday - is the 7lb sex allowance.
La Bague au Roi is probably of similar ability to todays rivals - but she receives a 7lb weight concession from them and that’s likely to prove key.
Of her 3 rivals then Hardline is the one I like most - particularly as he should have no issue with todays trip.
I’m a big fan of Mortal - but I think he wants longer; and whilst Winter Escape was impressive last time, it’s questionable what he beat…
All this said, I don’t expect any of them to be quite good enough to give 7lb to a high class mare, who is currently at the top of her game.
3:35
4 non runners on account of the ground, has spoilt this race - even though I don’t think that any of the 4 would have won !
Al Boom Photo was my idea of the most likely winner - and that remains the case.
However, I viewed Road to Respect and Bellshill as his 2 main dangers - and they both still run (probably !).
The trouble is, the 3 of them completely dominate the betting - and I don’t feel sufficiently confident about the chances of Al Boom Photo to warrant getting involved at a short price (9/4).
Certainly, It makes me a little nervous that Ruby has chosen Bellshill ahead of him: whilst Road to Respect has the best form in the book.
I suspect that Al Boom Photo is capable of improving and beating him - but you’d want more than 9/4 to get involved.
Consequently, this has to be a watching race - though it’s unlikely to be quite the spectacle we expected…
4:10
The key to this race, is likely to be the Paddy Power chase, run at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That race was won in convincing fashion, by Auvegnat - and whilst he isn’t in todays field, Vieux Morvan, Fitzhenry and Any Second Now, are - and they finished second, third and fifth, respectively.
De Names Escapes me and Livelovelaugh both also ran in the race - along with Black Scorpion…
The last named was a faller at the tenth fence - so not much beyond half way.
Ordinarily, I would consider that too far out to assess how a horse was travelling - but trust me, Black Scorpion was absolutely tanking at the time.
In fact, I think it was because he was going so strongly, that he fell.
He jumped the fence too quickly and his momentum took him over.
Provided that fall hasn’t affected his confidence, then if he’s in the same form today, I can’t see him not being involved in the finish.
In fairness, the case for him isn’t based around just one run.
He had looked a big improver earlier in the season, when winning at Listowel and running third in the Munster National.
The 3 mile trip just seemed to find him out in the latter event - so he should be well suited by todays drop back in trip.
Obviously, dangers abound in a 16 runner handicap of this nature.
That said , most of the runners are exposed, so you know what you are taking on.
Speaker Connelly is the exception - but he looks too short in the market.
De Names Escapes Me is the one I fear most - if his jumping holds up.
That said, I’m pretty keen on Black Scorpion - lets just hope that David Mullins can keep his enthusiasm in check !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Leop 1:15 Gardens of Babylon 0.5pt win 15/2
Leop 1:50 Triplicate 1pt win 12/1
Leop 1:50 Entoucas 0.5pt win 9/1
Leop 2:25 Cap York 0.5pt win 16/1
Leop 4:10 Black Scorpion 1pt win 16/1
Mentions
Leop 12:40 Cut the Mustard (O )
Leop 3:00 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 3:35 Al boom Photo (P )
Review of the day
The official P&L will say that today was a nothing day -
but I think it’s fair to say, that it won’t be telling the full story !
A win from Defi du Seuil, offset losses in 4 other races - but things could have been very different indeed…
That said, the day started poorly, with lamentable performances from the first 2 tips: Comm D’Office and Come to Me.
Both ran as if something was amiss: the former lugging to his left throughout and the latter stopping as if shot.
Neither managed to complete their race.
Defi Du Seuil was the third tip to run - and thankfully he ensured that, at very least, it wouldn’t be a losing day.
It was extremely pleasing to see the race pan out precisely as I expected: with Defi tracking Lostintransaltion - and then pouncing after the last, to secure snug win.
The only baffling part was an SP of 7/2 (bigger on BF) - coupled with the fact that I managed to secure 7/1 in running, after just a fence !
Sometimes you do wonder...
However, after that point, the afternoon seemed to take a bit of a sinister turn !
It started with Lord Napier.
I didn’t tip him, for a variety of reasons - but was left ruing that decision after he powered to an impressive 9 length victory (having received late market support).
I could have been philosophical about that result - but the very next race on the Sandown card saw an agonising defeat for Amis Desbois.
I did tip him - and in truth, he should have won.
However, a couple of sloppy jumps at the final 2 fences cost him momentum - and probably far more distance than the neck, by which he was ultimately beaten…
It was a tough one to take - particularly as the other tip in the race, Belami des Pictons, also traded odds on in running, when tanking along with half a mile to run.
In truth, he almost certainly did too much too soon and will be of more interest next time…
Minds Eye was the final tip on the day - but he just didn’t possess enough tactical speed to give himself a chance of winning.
On different ground - or even a different track, I think he would have gone very close: but at todays track, on todays ground - he wasn’t quite quick enough…
As for the days other Mentions:
Then Melon couldn’t lay a glove on an imperious Apples Jade. If she does go for the Champion hurdle, she will take a bit of beating.
Wonder Laish continued to drift in price, in the handicap hurdle - and finished out with the washing.
Whilst Charles Byrnes other runner, Off you Go, was quietly supported - and repeated last years victory.
Coincidence ? I very much doubt it !
Finally, Us and Them ran a big race to finish runner up to Le Richebourg.
There were 2 NRs in the race - but his second placing still meant that those who backed him EW, collected.
Some consolation, I guess…
TVB.
A win from Defi du Seuil, offset losses in 4 other races - but things could have been very different indeed…
That said, the day started poorly, with lamentable performances from the first 2 tips: Comm D’Office and Come to Me.
Both ran as if something was amiss: the former lugging to his left throughout and the latter stopping as if shot.
Neither managed to complete their race.
Defi Du Seuil was the third tip to run - and thankfully he ensured that, at very least, it wouldn’t be a losing day.
It was extremely pleasing to see the race pan out precisely as I expected: with Defi tracking Lostintransaltion - and then pouncing after the last, to secure snug win.
The only baffling part was an SP of 7/2 (bigger on BF) - coupled with the fact that I managed to secure 7/1 in running, after just a fence !
Sometimes you do wonder...
However, after that point, the afternoon seemed to take a bit of a sinister turn !
It started with Lord Napier.
I didn’t tip him, for a variety of reasons - but was left ruing that decision after he powered to an impressive 9 length victory (having received late market support).
I could have been philosophical about that result - but the very next race on the Sandown card saw an agonising defeat for Amis Desbois.
I did tip him - and in truth, he should have won.
However, a couple of sloppy jumps at the final 2 fences cost him momentum - and probably far more distance than the neck, by which he was ultimately beaten…
It was a tough one to take - particularly as the other tip in the race, Belami des Pictons, also traded odds on in running, when tanking along with half a mile to run.
In truth, he almost certainly did too much too soon and will be of more interest next time…
Minds Eye was the final tip on the day - but he just didn’t possess enough tactical speed to give himself a chance of winning.
On different ground - or even a different track, I think he would have gone very close: but at todays track, on todays ground - he wasn’t quite quick enough…
As for the days other Mentions:
Then Melon couldn’t lay a glove on an imperious Apples Jade. If she does go for the Champion hurdle, she will take a bit of beating.
Wonder Laish continued to drift in price, in the handicap hurdle - and finished out with the washing.
Whilst Charles Byrnes other runner, Off you Go, was quietly supported - and repeated last years victory.
Coincidence ? I very much doubt it !
Finally, Us and Them ran a big race to finish runner up to Le Richebourg.
There were 2 NRs in the race - but his second placing still meant that those who backed him EW, collected.
Some consolation, I guess…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Feb 2nd
Somewhat surprisingly, 2 NH meetings will take place this
afternoon: at Sandown in the UK - and Leopardstown in the Ireland.
When I sent out the ‘Plans for the Weekend’ email on Thursday, I was very fearful that all of todays scheduled fixtures would be lost.
And whilst the weather has claimed both Musselburgh and Wetherby - the days 2 main meetings, have both survived…
It’s the first day of the 2 day Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown - and the course has put on a high class and varied card.
The meeting at Sandown hasn’t got quite the quality - but its not far behind and there are some excellent races.
It wasn’t that hard for me to find some tips - the biggest problem I faced was in deciding which of my fancies should be official tips - and which unofficial Mentions !
I ended up issuing 6 tips on the day (across 5 races) - but also have Mentions in 4 other races.
Hopefully I’ve fallen on the right side of the fence, for the majority of them !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my views on the days other main races…
Sandown
1:15
I think it is worth taking a small risk on Comms D’Office in this…
He’s not run for nearly 2 years - but with Venetia, that’s rarely a problem !
Furthermore, he’s only run once in the UK - but it was quite an eye catching effort.
In fact, I made him an official eye catcher at the time - I just didn’t expect to have to wait quite so long to see him run again !
The race in question, was at Haydock - and looking back, it was a strong contest.
All of the main protagonists in the race are now rated around 10lb higher than they were at the time - whereas Comms D’Office has been dropped 5lb.
In fairness, he was beaten out of sight that day, so the ratings may not be that relevant - but he did travel with real purpose, until the home turn.
That race was over 2m4f, so it’s interesting that he’s dropped back to 2 miles today.
The booking of 7lb claimer, Hugh Nugent, is also an interesting move, as it means the horse will be carrying a feather weight.
He’s also had a wind op since his last run, so there are plenty of straws to clutch at!
In truth, this doesn’t look a particularly strong contest - and there’s a fair chance that quite a few of his rivals will be using it as a prep for the Cheltenham festival.
As a consequence, Comms D’Office is worthy of support as a big price, to cause a bit of a surprise.
1:50
Once again, Buveur D’Air is using this race as his final prep for the Champion hurdle and it will be a huge shock if he is beaten.
He’s won the last 2 runnings of the race - and as he’s rated at least 22lb superior to all of todays opponents, he should have very little trouble in seeing them off.
He does have to concede upwards of 4lb to them all - but that still leaves him with over a stone in hand…
Furthermore, with Rayvin Black in the race, there should be a proper gallop.
That will reduce the risk of a tactical contest, which could possibly have made Buveur D’Air vulnerable…
On ratings, Vision des Flos should follow him home - but I’d feel less confident about that, than I would about the horse who is likely to come home in front !
2:25
This is a cracking little race - and it’s very hard to choose between the 3 main protagonists.
Lostintranslation and Defi du Seuil met at Cheltenham last time, with the former just getting the better of things.
However, Defi travelled all over the winner for most of that race, just getting worried out of things, after jumping the last.
With the benefit of that experience under his belt, I would expect Defi to reverse the form today - though that doesn’t mean he will win !
Vindication probably isn’t the most talented horse in the world (though he’s pretty useful) - but he does have an attitude to die for.
That attitude has seen him come home in front in his 6 races under rules, so far - and it’ll make him a tough nut to crack this afternoon.
My hope is that Barry Geraghty will track the pace on Defi - and then pounce after jumping the last.
I suspect that Defi has the best turn of foot - and in Barry, the perfect man to utilise it.
If it gets into a battle on the run in, I won’t be overly confident - but hopefully that’s not how things will work out !
3:00
I was tempted by Lord Napier in this - but there are just a few too many negative for me to tip him…
I nearly tipped him the last time he ran - but his price went that day and decided there was no value.
He ran a good race that day: Finishing third and staying on strongly.
Certainly, I think todays step up to nearly 3 miles should suit him - but a 4lb rise in the handicap for finishing a comfortably beaten third, was harsh.
I’m also concerned that he might not handle todays softer ground - so on balance, I decided he could only be a Mention.
The other issue, is that this is a strong race…
Casko DAiry and Ballymoy head the market on the back of impressive wins - and both have to be feared.
Keeper Hill, Folsum Blue and Flemcara, are 3 more for whom cases can be made: Whilst there are also 2 or 3 potentially lively outsiders…
In short, it’s a race that will take a bit of winning - and whilst I think that Lord Napier has a chance, I suspect he is more likely to run well and be beaten, than he is to win.
Time will tell…!
3:35
I’m a bit disappointed that I’ve ended up tipping the first and second favourite in this race - but just so you know, they didn’t occupy those market positions when I found them !
Belami des Pictons was favourite - but Amis Desbosi was a 14/1 chance.
However, as is so often the case, others pick up on their chances and by the time I’m able to tip them, the price has gone.
I often will pass in those situations - but I do like the profiles of both Belami des Pictons and Amis Desbois - and there is always the chance that their prices will drift a little, close to the off…
In terms of the cases for them:
Then Amis Desbois is a potentially well handicapped horse, who still has scope to improve over fences.
He’s already run well twice this season - and his stable is in very good form.
His prominent style of racing should be an asset around Sandown - and whilst he no longer looks massively over-priced, he should run a big race and has got a fair chance of winning…
Belami des Pictons is a different beast in so much as he’s not guaranteed to run well - but if he does, he will almost certainly win !
He’s been off the track for over 400 days - but when he was last seen, he ran Waiting Patiently to 2 lengths, in receipt of just 6lb.
Waiting Patiently is now rated 170 - which suggests that Belami ran to a mark of around 160.
That’s backed up by the third placed horse, Baywing, who was beaten over 30 lengths, but is now rated 147.
Belami himself, runs off a mark of 146 today - so could easily have a stone in hand.
If that’s the case, he will win - and whilst 4/1 is short enough in a 16 runner handicap, I feel he has to be on side, as a saver…
Leopardstown
12:50
Willie Mullins runs 5 in this - and whilst Relegate appears to be the stables number 1, I think it is worth taking a risk on Come to Me…
Jockey bookings suggest he is probably the stables number 2 - but in truth, in this kind of race, connections are often guessing as much as we are.
Virtually all of the runners are unexposed and open to significant improvement, so it’s impossible to be dogmatic about anything.
As the winner of last seasons Champion bumper, Relegate certainly has huge potential - but after just 3 runs over hurdles, Come to Me is another who could be anything…
That certainly looked true after he bolted up by 17 lengths on his seasonal debut at Cork - and on the back of that run, he was sent off at just 4/1 for a grade 1 event at Naas, at the beginning of last month.
However, he wouldn’t settle that day - and didn’t get home.
There was also a rumour that he coughed after the race - so maybe all wasn’t right with him…
Whatever, I think he is worth giving another chance - particularly as he will be sporting a first time hood today.
Hopefully that will clam him down a little and enable him to run his race.
If he does, then I suspect he has the ability to go very close…
In truth, it’s not a race that you could have a massively strong opinion on.
All of the market leaders look to have a chance - whilst Rhinestone is one at a slightly bigger price who I am also fearful of (he’s also an official eye catcher).
1:25
This is a fascinating race, as it sees ‘wonder mare’, Apples Jade, reverting to 2 miles - and taking on last years Champion hurdle runner-up, Melon: and the winner of last years running of this race, Supersundae.
The question is whether Apples Jade will be able to fend off the boys, over a trip that is short of her best…
The crucial element is the 7lb mares allowance that she receives from her main rivals, as it means that on official ratings, she has 5lb in hand.
I suspect that is about right - the question is whether it will be sufficient to compensate for the shorter trip…
A lot of it is going to boil down to tactics.
Jack Kennedy is likely to make the running on Apples Jade - so it will come down to him getting fractions right and kicking at the right time.
If he does, then I suspect the mare will win: but if Melon and Supersundae aren’t under pressure turning in, their superior speed will probably prove crucial, up the home straight…
In the circumstances, it’s an impossible race to call - but if you can get 3/1 about Melon (and I have, on the exchanges), then I think that’s a fair bet.
2:00
This is another very hard race to call - but for different reasons…
I was very impressed by Wonder Laish when he won last time at Fairyhouse - and I suspect he could easily be up to defying an 8lb rise.
I even think that 5/1 is a fair price about him - the trouble is, he was a fair bit shorter earlier.
Therefore, you have the dilemma of whether to back a Charles Byrnes drifter !
As always, the key betting activity will take place in the final few minutes - and if Wonder Laish is strong in the market then, I think he will win.
Without that knowledge however, I just don’t feel it is a race that you can play in…
As you would expect, plenty of the other runners can be given a chance: Uradel is the obvious one for Willie and Ruby: but Eclair de Beaufeu for Gordon and Jack, also looks to have a decent chance.
Jetez, Try Again and Due Reward, complete my ‘short’ list - with the last named possibly the best value bet in the race, at around 25/1…
3:10
It’s hard to see beyond Min in this…
He’s probably the second best 2 miler around at the moment (behind Altior) - and his victory in the John Durkan at Punchestown early in December, suggest that he is as good as ever, this season.
On official ratings, he has at least 9lb in hand of all of todays rivals - and barring accidents it’s difficult to see him getting beaten…
Saint Calvados looks by far the most interesting of his rivals - but his chances could be compromised by the presence of fellow front runner, Special Tiara.
As a consequence, Castlegrace Paddy might end up the one who chases Min home…
3:45
I was half tempted to get involved with this race, as I don’t think that market leaders, Le Richebourg or Knocknanuss, look bomb proof.
In fairness, Le Richebourg does have the strongest form: however, he’s been on the go for a long time - and he needs the ground to be relatively quick.
He may get away with things today - but I couldn’t support him at 2/1.
If I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with Mengli Khan.
He was well beaten by Le Richburg last time (and also finished behind Voix du Reve and Us and Them) - however he was sent off favourite for that race, so clearly disappointed.
He will need to bounce back to form this afternoon - but that’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
He opened up at 10/1 last night and I would have taken a risk at that price. However, the 7/1 this morning, has no margin, considering the risks…
In fact, the most tempting bet in the race now, is Us and Them - at 20/1, each way.
I’m sure he’ll run his race - and if he does, he could easily place…
4:20
Henry de Bromhead runs 5 in this - and he must stand a very good chance of winning.
The tricky but is figuring out which one of his, to side with…
Tisamystery looks a solid contender for the stable - but the less exposed Moon over Germany and Minds Eye, look more interesting…
Both are still novices - but have shown decent form in races of that nature and look competitively handicapped on their debuts in open handicap company…
Of the 2, I slightly prefer the chances of Minds Eye (and as he was also the bigger price, that made choosing a tip, relatively easy !).
He has run in grade 1 events on his 2 most recent outings - and not been disgraced on either occasion.
Last time, he was only beaten 13 lengths by Le Richebourg - and on that run, a rating of 138 looks very fair.
Todays slightly extended 2 mile trip looks perfect for him - as he appears to want a bit further than 2 miles, but doesn’t quite stay 2m4f !
It’s really just a question of what is a fair price, in such a competitive race…
13/2 is tight enough - but I think there is still a small margin in that…
Moon over Germany looks the main danger - though he may want slightly more of a test.
Most of the other runners are far more exposed - with English raider, Duke of Navan looking the most interesting.
He’s racing off quite an attractive mark, compared to his UK mark - and odds of around 20/1 under-estimate his chance.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB
Tips
Sand 1:15 Commis D'Office 0.5pt win 20/1
Sand 2:25 Defi du Seuil 1pt win 10/3
Sand 3:35 Ami Desbois 1pt win 15/2
Sand 3:35 Belami des Pictons 0.5pt win 4/1
Leop 12:50 Come to Me 0.5pt win 14/1
Leop 4:20 Minds Eye 1pt win 13/2
Mentions
Sand 3:00 Lord Napier (C )
Leop 1:25 Melon (P )
Leop 2:00 Wonder Laish (C )
Leop 3:45 Us and Them (O )
When I sent out the ‘Plans for the Weekend’ email on Thursday, I was very fearful that all of todays scheduled fixtures would be lost.
And whilst the weather has claimed both Musselburgh and Wetherby - the days 2 main meetings, have both survived…
It’s the first day of the 2 day Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown - and the course has put on a high class and varied card.
The meeting at Sandown hasn’t got quite the quality - but its not far behind and there are some excellent races.
It wasn’t that hard for me to find some tips - the biggest problem I faced was in deciding which of my fancies should be official tips - and which unofficial Mentions !
I ended up issuing 6 tips on the day (across 5 races) - but also have Mentions in 4 other races.
Hopefully I’ve fallen on the right side of the fence, for the majority of them !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my views on the days other main races…
Sandown
1:15
I think it is worth taking a small risk on Comms D’Office in this…
He’s not run for nearly 2 years - but with Venetia, that’s rarely a problem !
Furthermore, he’s only run once in the UK - but it was quite an eye catching effort.
In fact, I made him an official eye catcher at the time - I just didn’t expect to have to wait quite so long to see him run again !
The race in question, was at Haydock - and looking back, it was a strong contest.
All of the main protagonists in the race are now rated around 10lb higher than they were at the time - whereas Comms D’Office has been dropped 5lb.
In fairness, he was beaten out of sight that day, so the ratings may not be that relevant - but he did travel with real purpose, until the home turn.
That race was over 2m4f, so it’s interesting that he’s dropped back to 2 miles today.
The booking of 7lb claimer, Hugh Nugent, is also an interesting move, as it means the horse will be carrying a feather weight.
He’s also had a wind op since his last run, so there are plenty of straws to clutch at!
In truth, this doesn’t look a particularly strong contest - and there’s a fair chance that quite a few of his rivals will be using it as a prep for the Cheltenham festival.
As a consequence, Comms D’Office is worthy of support as a big price, to cause a bit of a surprise.
1:50
Once again, Buveur D’Air is using this race as his final prep for the Champion hurdle and it will be a huge shock if he is beaten.
He’s won the last 2 runnings of the race - and as he’s rated at least 22lb superior to all of todays opponents, he should have very little trouble in seeing them off.
He does have to concede upwards of 4lb to them all - but that still leaves him with over a stone in hand…
Furthermore, with Rayvin Black in the race, there should be a proper gallop.
That will reduce the risk of a tactical contest, which could possibly have made Buveur D’Air vulnerable…
On ratings, Vision des Flos should follow him home - but I’d feel less confident about that, than I would about the horse who is likely to come home in front !
2:25
This is a cracking little race - and it’s very hard to choose between the 3 main protagonists.
Lostintranslation and Defi du Seuil met at Cheltenham last time, with the former just getting the better of things.
However, Defi travelled all over the winner for most of that race, just getting worried out of things, after jumping the last.
With the benefit of that experience under his belt, I would expect Defi to reverse the form today - though that doesn’t mean he will win !
Vindication probably isn’t the most talented horse in the world (though he’s pretty useful) - but he does have an attitude to die for.
That attitude has seen him come home in front in his 6 races under rules, so far - and it’ll make him a tough nut to crack this afternoon.
My hope is that Barry Geraghty will track the pace on Defi - and then pounce after jumping the last.
I suspect that Defi has the best turn of foot - and in Barry, the perfect man to utilise it.
If it gets into a battle on the run in, I won’t be overly confident - but hopefully that’s not how things will work out !
3:00
I was tempted by Lord Napier in this - but there are just a few too many negative for me to tip him…
I nearly tipped him the last time he ran - but his price went that day and decided there was no value.
He ran a good race that day: Finishing third and staying on strongly.
Certainly, I think todays step up to nearly 3 miles should suit him - but a 4lb rise in the handicap for finishing a comfortably beaten third, was harsh.
I’m also concerned that he might not handle todays softer ground - so on balance, I decided he could only be a Mention.
The other issue, is that this is a strong race…
Casko DAiry and Ballymoy head the market on the back of impressive wins - and both have to be feared.
Keeper Hill, Folsum Blue and Flemcara, are 3 more for whom cases can be made: Whilst there are also 2 or 3 potentially lively outsiders…
In short, it’s a race that will take a bit of winning - and whilst I think that Lord Napier has a chance, I suspect he is more likely to run well and be beaten, than he is to win.
Time will tell…!
3:35
I’m a bit disappointed that I’ve ended up tipping the first and second favourite in this race - but just so you know, they didn’t occupy those market positions when I found them !
Belami des Pictons was favourite - but Amis Desbosi was a 14/1 chance.
However, as is so often the case, others pick up on their chances and by the time I’m able to tip them, the price has gone.
I often will pass in those situations - but I do like the profiles of both Belami des Pictons and Amis Desbois - and there is always the chance that their prices will drift a little, close to the off…
In terms of the cases for them:
Then Amis Desbois is a potentially well handicapped horse, who still has scope to improve over fences.
He’s already run well twice this season - and his stable is in very good form.
His prominent style of racing should be an asset around Sandown - and whilst he no longer looks massively over-priced, he should run a big race and has got a fair chance of winning…
Belami des Pictons is a different beast in so much as he’s not guaranteed to run well - but if he does, he will almost certainly win !
He’s been off the track for over 400 days - but when he was last seen, he ran Waiting Patiently to 2 lengths, in receipt of just 6lb.
Waiting Patiently is now rated 170 - which suggests that Belami ran to a mark of around 160.
That’s backed up by the third placed horse, Baywing, who was beaten over 30 lengths, but is now rated 147.
Belami himself, runs off a mark of 146 today - so could easily have a stone in hand.
If that’s the case, he will win - and whilst 4/1 is short enough in a 16 runner handicap, I feel he has to be on side, as a saver…
Leopardstown
12:50
Willie Mullins runs 5 in this - and whilst Relegate appears to be the stables number 1, I think it is worth taking a risk on Come to Me…
Jockey bookings suggest he is probably the stables number 2 - but in truth, in this kind of race, connections are often guessing as much as we are.
Virtually all of the runners are unexposed and open to significant improvement, so it’s impossible to be dogmatic about anything.
As the winner of last seasons Champion bumper, Relegate certainly has huge potential - but after just 3 runs over hurdles, Come to Me is another who could be anything…
That certainly looked true after he bolted up by 17 lengths on his seasonal debut at Cork - and on the back of that run, he was sent off at just 4/1 for a grade 1 event at Naas, at the beginning of last month.
However, he wouldn’t settle that day - and didn’t get home.
There was also a rumour that he coughed after the race - so maybe all wasn’t right with him…
Whatever, I think he is worth giving another chance - particularly as he will be sporting a first time hood today.
Hopefully that will clam him down a little and enable him to run his race.
If he does, then I suspect he has the ability to go very close…
In truth, it’s not a race that you could have a massively strong opinion on.
All of the market leaders look to have a chance - whilst Rhinestone is one at a slightly bigger price who I am also fearful of (he’s also an official eye catcher).
1:25
This is a fascinating race, as it sees ‘wonder mare’, Apples Jade, reverting to 2 miles - and taking on last years Champion hurdle runner-up, Melon: and the winner of last years running of this race, Supersundae.
The question is whether Apples Jade will be able to fend off the boys, over a trip that is short of her best…
The crucial element is the 7lb mares allowance that she receives from her main rivals, as it means that on official ratings, she has 5lb in hand.
I suspect that is about right - the question is whether it will be sufficient to compensate for the shorter trip…
A lot of it is going to boil down to tactics.
Jack Kennedy is likely to make the running on Apples Jade - so it will come down to him getting fractions right and kicking at the right time.
If he does, then I suspect the mare will win: but if Melon and Supersundae aren’t under pressure turning in, their superior speed will probably prove crucial, up the home straight…
In the circumstances, it’s an impossible race to call - but if you can get 3/1 about Melon (and I have, on the exchanges), then I think that’s a fair bet.
2:00
This is another very hard race to call - but for different reasons…
I was very impressed by Wonder Laish when he won last time at Fairyhouse - and I suspect he could easily be up to defying an 8lb rise.
I even think that 5/1 is a fair price about him - the trouble is, he was a fair bit shorter earlier.
Therefore, you have the dilemma of whether to back a Charles Byrnes drifter !
As always, the key betting activity will take place in the final few minutes - and if Wonder Laish is strong in the market then, I think he will win.
Without that knowledge however, I just don’t feel it is a race that you can play in…
As you would expect, plenty of the other runners can be given a chance: Uradel is the obvious one for Willie and Ruby: but Eclair de Beaufeu for Gordon and Jack, also looks to have a decent chance.
Jetez, Try Again and Due Reward, complete my ‘short’ list - with the last named possibly the best value bet in the race, at around 25/1…
3:10
It’s hard to see beyond Min in this…
He’s probably the second best 2 miler around at the moment (behind Altior) - and his victory in the John Durkan at Punchestown early in December, suggest that he is as good as ever, this season.
On official ratings, he has at least 9lb in hand of all of todays rivals - and barring accidents it’s difficult to see him getting beaten…
Saint Calvados looks by far the most interesting of his rivals - but his chances could be compromised by the presence of fellow front runner, Special Tiara.
As a consequence, Castlegrace Paddy might end up the one who chases Min home…
3:45
I was half tempted to get involved with this race, as I don’t think that market leaders, Le Richebourg or Knocknanuss, look bomb proof.
In fairness, Le Richebourg does have the strongest form: however, he’s been on the go for a long time - and he needs the ground to be relatively quick.
He may get away with things today - but I couldn’t support him at 2/1.
If I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with Mengli Khan.
He was well beaten by Le Richburg last time (and also finished behind Voix du Reve and Us and Them) - however he was sent off favourite for that race, so clearly disappointed.
He will need to bounce back to form this afternoon - but that’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
He opened up at 10/1 last night and I would have taken a risk at that price. However, the 7/1 this morning, has no margin, considering the risks…
In fact, the most tempting bet in the race now, is Us and Them - at 20/1, each way.
I’m sure he’ll run his race - and if he does, he could easily place…
4:20
Henry de Bromhead runs 5 in this - and he must stand a very good chance of winning.
The tricky but is figuring out which one of his, to side with…
Tisamystery looks a solid contender for the stable - but the less exposed Moon over Germany and Minds Eye, look more interesting…
Both are still novices - but have shown decent form in races of that nature and look competitively handicapped on their debuts in open handicap company…
Of the 2, I slightly prefer the chances of Minds Eye (and as he was also the bigger price, that made choosing a tip, relatively easy !).
He has run in grade 1 events on his 2 most recent outings - and not been disgraced on either occasion.
Last time, he was only beaten 13 lengths by Le Richebourg - and on that run, a rating of 138 looks very fair.
Todays slightly extended 2 mile trip looks perfect for him - as he appears to want a bit further than 2 miles, but doesn’t quite stay 2m4f !
It’s really just a question of what is a fair price, in such a competitive race…
13/2 is tight enough - but I think there is still a small margin in that…
Moon over Germany looks the main danger - though he may want slightly more of a test.
Most of the other runners are far more exposed - with English raider, Duke of Navan looking the most interesting.
He’s racing off quite an attractive mark, compared to his UK mark - and odds of around 20/1 under-estimate his chance.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB
Tips
Sand 1:15 Commis D'Office 0.5pt win 20/1
Sand 2:25 Defi du Seuil 1pt win 10/3
Sand 3:35 Ami Desbois 1pt win 15/2
Sand 3:35 Belami des Pictons 0.5pt win 4/1
Leop 12:50 Come to Me 0.5pt win 14/1
Leop 4:20 Minds Eye 1pt win 13/2
Mentions
Sand 3:00 Lord Napier (C )
Leop 1:25 Melon (P )
Leop 2:00 Wonder Laish (C )
Leop 3:45 Us and Them (O )
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