Daily write-up - Feb 3rd

It’s day 2 of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown.

The meeting had to survive an early morning inspection - but thankfully it did just that and we will be treated to another excellent afternoons racing.

The going yesterday, looked relatively quick (for the time of year) - and whilst there has been a little rain/sleet overnight, I doubt it will make too much difference to conditions.

I’m sure that a few of your noticed the prices on the tips, going a bit quicker than usual, this morning…
I don’t think that was down to us: as I’ve said previously the Irish markets are very flimsy - and tipping into them early (even in grade 1 events !) is always going to be difficult.
Hopefully you all managed to at least get close to advised prices (within 20%).

I ended up with 5 tips on the day, across 4 races.
In truth, I could have tipped in almost all of the races - but I have to draw the line somewhere - and there is a fair bit of speculation involved with most of the tips, so I don’t want to get too carried away !

That said, I am hopeful that I’ve found at least one or two ‘live ones’ at decent prices - time will tell !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on most of the other races on the card.


Leopardstown

12:40

I’m sure a few of your have noticed that my ‘nearly tips’, tend to do very well.
Obviously, I have to draw the line somewhere - and it’s ridiculous, how often I draw it, one horse too high (think Lord Napier, yesterday !).
Well, for those of you who follow the nearly tips, Cut the Mustard is the one for you this afternoon !
I nearly tipped her - but eventually decided against it…
In a way, I think she’s a bit too obvious !
A Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh horse, who ran really well in a decent handicap last time - and arguably drops in grade this afternoon.
Her prices is fair as well: there may be 17 runners in the race - but realistically, only half a dozen or so have a chance…
So what is the issue?
In part, it’s the price - I would expect her to be shorter, if I’m reading things right - because she is not going to be missed by anyone !
The second concern his that whilst she is exposed - a few of her rivals aren’t. She is therefore vulnerable to an improver.
My final concern is the trip. She steps up to 2m2f today - but I think she will prove best, over at least 2 furlongs further…
I think she has a definite chance: and I would expect her to run well - and quite possibly be placed.
However, I just feel that she could be vulnerable - and 11/2 isn’t a massive price for  taking a risk.
As you would expect, most of the likely dangers are at the head of the market  - though Countess Cathleen could outrun dismissive odds (around 33/1).

1:15

Sir Erec and Tiger Tap Tap put their weighty reputations on the line in this…
They both made their hurdling debuts in a maiden at Leopardstown over Christmas - with the former coming out on top, by a neck.
It’s nearly impossible to measure the strength of that form - but the market has decided it is far superior to the form of the other runners in the race - and the pair of them dominate the market.
Time may show that’s right - but today, without the benefit of hindsight, they have to be taken on…
There are 2 options for opposing them: firstly via the form of the grade 2 Knight Frank hurdle also run at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That form is represented by Chief Justice (2nd), Got Trumped (3rd) and Coeur Sublime (fell).
The other form line, is a race run at Fairyhouse last month, where Surin just got the better of Gardens of Babylon - and that is the one I’ve chosen to go with…
Gardens of Babylon and Surin were renewing rivalry that day, having met at Punchestown at the end of December.
Gardens of Babylon came out best that day - but Surin got a significant weight pull when they met at Fairyhouse and that enabled her to reverse the form.
Todays weights are the same as they were at Punchestown - so that should see Gardens of Babylon coming out on top…
Of course, it’s rarely that simple - and even if things do work out that way, there are still the 2 other form lines that need to be fended off !
That said, this game is all about price and probability - and I think that Gardens of Babylon is the strongest representative of that form line - and that form line maybe the strongest in the race ! 
As a consequence, he is worth a risk, at a reasonable price.

1:50

This is another race where the market has decided that a particular form line is by far the strongest in the race - even though there is minimal evidence to support it !
Again, it is being driven by the reputation of the horses involved - and whilst it might be right, the odds on offer mean that a counter view has to be taken…
The form line in question, is a maiden run at Leopardstown at Christmas, where Klassical Dream beat Entoucas, with Dancing on my Own third and Vision D’Honneur fourth.
All 4 meet again this afternoon and the market is adamant that either Klassical Dream or Vision D’Honneur will come out on top.
It’s probably no coincidence that those two repent the big stables of Mullins and Elliott - but on the form book, they aren’t guaranteed to beat Entoucas and Dancing on My Own.
In fact, watching the race, I felt Entoucas was the one to take out of it - so at 9/1, he is definitely worth having on side…
However, for all I respect his chance - I prefer that of his stablemate, Triplicate…
I tipped him early in December, when he finished runner up in a grade 1 at Fairyhouse.
I felt he was a touch unlucky that day, as Ruby stole the race with a masterful front running ride on Quick Grabim.
On the back of that effort, Triplicate was made favourite for a grade 1 race at Leopardstown over Christmas.
However, everything went wrong that day - and he finished well beaten.
I think that run can be safely ignored - and based on his earlier form, he has a very big chance in this.
Certainly I think he has the beating of third favourite, Aramon, even though that one beat him last time (which explains why he is much shorter in the betting).
The 2 had met twice previously, with Triplicate coming out on top on both occasions.
Again, this comes down to choosing a form line - and I prefer the grade 1 form of Triplicate and Aramon, to the maiden form of Klassical Dancer and Vision D’Honneur.
Only time will tell whether I am right - but the odds available make it a relatively simple choice.

2:25

I think it is worth taking a chance on Cap York in this.
He has only run 3 times over hurdles in Ireland.
He made his Irish debut at Leopardstown in December 2016 - but then wasn’t seen again until winning a maiden at Navan, almost 2 years later…
His only other run, was in a grade 2 event at Limerick, at the end of last year.
He ran well enough in that race, finishing fourth, just 4 lengths behind the winner.
What is particularly interesting about that run, is that Pleasure Dome finished one place and 3 lengths in front of him that day.
Cap York gets a 5lb pull in the weights today, which should make things very close between them - yet this morning, Cap York was 20/1 and Pleasure Dome 5/1…
Now I don’t suppose that too many of you got 20/1 - but most should have got at least 14/1 - which is still a big price, when compared to that of Pleasure Dome.
Of course this isn’t just a 2 horse race: Cuneo and Dallas de Pcitons are 2 other unexposed horses who could be a long way ahead of their marks.
However, as with Pleasure Dome, they had both been well found in the market.
Cap York hadn't - and consequently, at this mornings price, he was definitely worth a small risk.

3:00

The defection of Delta Work, has robbed this race of a lot of its interest…
I thought he looked vulnerable today and had half a mind to take him on with La Bague au Roi - if I could have got at least 5/2 on the mare.
That’s clearly not going to happen now - so it will just have to be a watching race.
I expect to watch La Bague au Roi win - though she faces 3 very decent rivals, in the shape of Winter Escape, Hardline and Mortal.
I was keen to take on Delta Work because I felt that todays 2m5f trip wouldn't test his stamina sufficiently - I’m not sure that will be the case for La Bague au Rois 3 remaining rivals…
Ofcourse, the key factor - as with Apples Jade yesterday - is the 7lb sex allowance.
La Bague au Roi is probably of similar ability to todays rivals - but she receives a 7lb weight concession from them and that’s likely to prove key.
Of her 3 rivals then Hardline is the one I like most - particularly as he should have no issue with todays trip.
I’m a big fan of Mortal - but I think he wants longer; and whilst Winter Escape was impressive last time, it’s questionable what he beat…
All this said, I don’t expect any of them to be quite good enough to give 7lb to a high class mare, who is currently at the top of her game.

3:35

4 non runners on account of the ground, has spoilt this race - even though I don’t think that any of the 4 would have won !
Al Boom Photo was my idea of the most likely winner - and that remains the case.
However, I viewed Road to Respect and Bellshill as his 2 main dangers - and they both still run (probably !).
The trouble is, the 3 of them completely dominate the betting - and I don’t feel sufficiently confident about the chances of Al Boom Photo to warrant getting involved at a short price (9/4).
Certainly, It makes me a little nervous that Ruby has chosen Bellshill ahead of him: whilst Road to Respect has the best form in the book.
I suspect that Al Boom Photo is capable of improving and beating him - but you’d want more than 9/4 to get involved.
Consequently, this has to be a watching race - though it’s unlikely to be quite the spectacle we expected…

4:10

The key to this race, is likely to be the Paddy Power chase, run at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That race was won in convincing fashion, by Auvegnat - and whilst he isn’t in todays field, Vieux Morvan, Fitzhenry and Any Second Now, are - and they finished second, third and fifth, respectively.
De Names Escapes me and Livelovelaugh both also ran in the race - along with Black Scorpion…
The last named was a faller at the tenth fence - so not much beyond half way.
Ordinarily, I would consider that too far out to assess how a horse was travelling - but trust me, Black Scorpion was absolutely tanking at the time.
In fact, I think it was because he was going so strongly, that he fell.
He jumped the fence too quickly and his momentum took him over.
Provided that fall hasn’t affected his confidence, then if he’s in the same form today, I can’t see him not being involved in the finish.
In fairness, the case for him isn’t based around just one run.
He had looked a big improver earlier in the season, when winning at Listowel and running third in the Munster National.
The 3 mile trip just seemed to find him out in the latter event - so he should be well suited by todays drop back in trip.
Obviously, dangers abound in a 16 runner handicap of this nature.
That said , most of the runners are exposed, so you know what you are taking on.
Speaker Connelly is the exception - but he looks too short in the market.
De Names Escapes Me is the one I fear most - if his jumping holds up.
That said, I’m pretty keen on Black Scorpion - lets just hope that David Mullins can keep his enthusiasm in check !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Leop 1:15 Gardens of Babylon 0.5pt win 15/2
Leop 1:50 Triplicate 1pt win 12/1
Leop 1:50 Entoucas 0.5pt win 9/1
Leop 2:25 Cap York 0.5pt win 16/1
Leop 4:10 Black Scorpion 1pt win 16/1

Mentions

Leop 12:40 Cut the Mustard (O )
Leop 3:00 La Bague au Roi (P )
Leop 3:35 Al boom Photo (P )