Daily write-up - Feb 16th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

As I said in my ‘Plans for the weekend’ email on Thursday, there is a lot of quality racing taking place today (arguably, too much ! ).

The reasons for that, are simple: we are now just a month away from Cheltenham, and the recent outbreak of equine flu, on the back of a spell of poor weather, means that there are a lot of high class horses, who need to run.

Opportunities after this weekend, will be limited - however, opportunities today, are plentiful !

I literally went through 20 races yesterday - all class 3 or above - trying to find bets for today.
And in truth, I found plenty of horses I fancied (at least one, in most of the races !) - though turning them in to tips, is always a bit trickier…

The main issue is that the prices need to be there - not only when I’m looking (so I can latch on to them) - but also when I come to tip.

Needless to say, the prices of most of my fancies are tighter than I would like - so I have the endless dilemma, of when to tip and when just to Mention…
Hopefully I’ve at least got some of those calls right this afternoon !

Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 9 tips, across 7 races.
It’s a lot - but I could have had quite a few more !

In terms of the write-up, then there simply isn’t the time for me to cover all of the races that I looked at.
My main focus was on Ascot and Haydock - so that’s what I’ve previewed in the write-up.

I also looked at 4 races at Wincanton - and the 2 main races at Gowran - but there just wasn’t sufficient time for me to include my thoughts in the write-up - apologias.

Anyway, hopefully my efforts on the Ascot and Haydock cards will compensate - along with the tips, of course !


Ascot

1:00

Brio Conti is the one of most interest in this race.
He caught my eye last time, on his belated seasonal debut at Sandown.
He travelled really strongly through the race - but didn’t get home.
I’d expect him to improve for that run - and he races from a 2lb lower mark today.
However, Paul Nichols says he’s still likely to need the run - and I can believe that…
Certainly, a similar performance today, will likely see his handicap mark drop below 140 - and I suspect he will be able to do some damage off that.
One for next time, I think...
That being the case, then we are left with an open looking contest.
Umndeni and Tight Call are the 2 I like most - but there is little in their prices.
With at least 3 others of potential interest, this has to be a race to watch…

1:35

The absence of Sanitini (he’d not been vaccinated in the last 6 months), means that this race lacks a proven quality performer.
It also means that it’s a lot more open than would have been the case - despite there being only 5 runners.
Coup de Pinceau looks the weakest of the quintet - but it’s not easy to split the other 4.
I suspect Top Ville Ben has been a little over-rated - and he ideally wants softer ground than he’s going to get today.
Choosing between the other 3 isn’t easy - but I just prefer the claims of Now McGinty.
He was the best of the 3 over hurdles - and seems to have improved for fences.
Certainly, he’s looked good on his 2 most recent outings: finishing runner up in a hot novice chase at Uttoxeter - and then beating De Rasher Counter at Chepstow.
He’s got a great attitude - and Richard Johnson looks the perfect jockey booking for him.
I’m sure he’ll give us a good run for our money - and I reckon he’s just about the most likely winner.
There’s not a lot in his price - but at 7/2, I think he’s worth a small play.

2:10

I’m a little disappointed that I can’t find something to tip in this race, as it doesn’t look overly strong.
In truth, I probably could have found something - but it would be Reikers Island, and there is no margin in an early price of 11/4.
He’s just about the only one in the field on an upward curve - though I don’t think he has a lot in hand of his mark - and he does have a tendency to belt the odd fence.
Of the others, then Calipto is the one that interests me most…
However, he definitely doesn’t have much in hand of his mark - and Charlie Deutsch back in the saddle, means that he loses out on thee 7lb allowance, which has helped his last 2 wins.
He could still possibly be worthy of support (currently 9/1) - maybe EW , if all 8 go to post - as I think he will run his race and this isn’t the strongest of contests.

2:45

This effectively looks a 2 horse race, between Clan des Obeaux and Terrefort - and I got very close to tipping the latter.
In truth, it would only have taken a slight drift in his price, out to 11/4, and I would have been prepared to get involved.
The trouble is, you are gambling to a large extent, on how fit the horses are.
My feeling is that Terrefort will be more tuned than Clan des Obeaux - but it is a guess.
I’ve no doubt that the market will advise close to the off - and if Clan des Obeaux isn’t fully tuned, I would expect his price to drift.
In terms of absolute ability, then I suspect that there isn’t a great deal between the pair.
Clan des Obeaux is probably the sightly more talented animal - but that may well not be the deciding factor this afternoon.
For those of you who like to play at short odds, then 5/2 Terrefort is probably not a bad bet.
However, officially speaking, this is a watching race…

3:20

The extent to which novices now dominate this race, has become a bit silly…
Historically, this was just about the biggest 2 mile handicap hurdle in the calendar - contested by high class, seasoned, handicappers.
However, that started to change few years back - and now, it would appear, only talented novices need apply !
It’s not hard to understand why.
The handicapper hasn’t had time to properly assess most novices - so they often have ratings that don’t yet match their ability.
It makes sense to try and exploit that situation, when there is a big pot on offer…
Todays pot isn't quite as big as it was supposed to be (the race has been rescheduled from last weeks cancelled Newbury card) - but it is still worth winning.
And amazingly, novices occupy the top 6 places in the betting.
Undoubtedly, Al Dancer and Getaway Trump, are the ones to beat - but at around 3/1, neither can be supported.
I wouldn’t have been so keen on Didtheyleaveuouto , if the race had been run last week - but he’s won his 2 races at Ascot, so the switch of venue has definitely done him a favour.
Whether he’ll be good enough to beat the market leaders, remains to be seen.
However, I suspect he’s high class novice (certainly a fair bit better than his current rating of 139) - and he’s now running under ideal conditions.
Furthermore, he’s been priced up at around 9/1 - and at those odds, he’s worth a small risk.
Of those at bigger prices, then Nordic Combined is the most interesting.
He’s also a novice (no surprise there!) - and is sporting a first time visor today.
He may not quite last home, but I think he could make a decent in running play.

3:55

This is a cracking race - and I think Politologue is very much the one to beat.
He’s a top class performer, who will get his ideal conditions this afternoon: 2m4f; good ground; a flat track and right handed.
He faces some very talented rivals - but non of them will be as well suited to todays conditions, as he will and I think he will take plenty of beating…
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race behind Waiting Patiently - and he is definitely the one to beat.
However, there is precious little between the 2 horses - and I suspect the relatively quick ground will edge things in Politologues favour.
He should also be sharper than Waiting Patiently, as the latter is yet to complete a race this season…
Fox Norton would be a huge danger - if back to his best - however, he has only run once previously this season and still has a fair bit to prove, on his return from injury.
Cyrname is likely to make the running - but I’ll be amazed if he can take this field apart in the same way he did last time, when facing a relatively modest bunch of handicappers.
In all probability he will just set things up for one of the others.
Aso and Charbel are both decent performers - but they aren’t quite in the class of Politologue or Waiting Patiently.
In ideal conditions , I’ll be very surprised (and disappointed !), if Poloitologue doesn’t go very close indeed…

4:30

It’s not easy to get a handle on all of the runners in this big field - but I think it’s worth taking a small chance on The way you Dance…
He’s not run over hurdles for over a year - but he’s run on the flat during that period: winning twice, with his rating rising by 12lb.
He actually won on his last run over hurdles - and generally, has an excellent strike rate in handicap hurdles (3 from 6).
He will have no issue with todays relatively quick ground - and I like the booking of a 3lb claimer.
He already had a decent weight to carry - but a further 3lb will definitely help.
I also like the fact that he was given a pipe opener on the flat, just a few weeks ago.
He was also ridden that day, as if gaining fitness was the prime objective…
In short, I can see a lot of positives in his profile - and whilst I can’t be sure about all of his rivals, I think he is worth a risk at a relatively big price.
Plenty of the others could be of interest: non more so than Another Emotion.
I tipped him on his penultimate run, when he finished second. I’m sure he can win a race off his current mark - and the application of first time cheek pieces is interesting.
However, I think he needs softer ground than he will get today - and I would expect Dickie to be in the saddle if he was really fancied.
He’s maybe worth saving stakes on, just in case - but officially speaking all of the eggs are in the basket of The way you Dance !


Haydock

12:50

I briefly considered taking a chance on Capone in this…
He caught my eye on his debut, when running in a grade 2 event at Doncaster.
He travelled nicely in that race, until lack of experience and condition, caught him out over the final 2 flights.
He won his next outing, at Ludlow - but that wasn’t a strong race, and he struggled a bit, to justify odds of 4/6.
I don’t think that run was a true reflation of his ability - and I would expect him to perform to a higher level today.
The trouble is, he’ll need to that - just to avoid finishing last !
On the book, he has no chance of beating Quel Destin, as he was beaten 12 lengths by him at Doncaster and is a couple of pounds worse off today.
I might be prepared to ignore that - but I think we need to look to the horizon…
Quel Destin is potentially a Triumph hurdle horse - and if Capone beats him today (or even runs him close) - that’s the race he will need to contest.
If however, he runs creditable - but is comfortably beaten, then he should get a handicap rating that will enable him to compete in the Fred winter, at the festival.
I suspect the second scenario is how things will pan out - though I may have a tiny wager on Capone, just in case !

1:55

I’d quite like to take on Yanworth in this - but I can’t find anything suitable to do so with…
I’ve no real issue with Yanworth - but I suspect he will come on plenty for todays outing, having not run since last March.
The trouble is, he has at least a stone in hand of most of todays rivals - and non of them are going to be competing in ideal conditions this afternoon.
On ratings, Clyne should present the biggest danger - however, he would prefer softer ground and a shorter trip.
The ground is also likely to be an issue for Donnas Diamond - and possibly, for a Shade of Midnight…
I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping the last named: however he has 20lb to find with Yanworth on official ratings - and that really should be too much.
Ultimately, I decided that Yanworth’s class will probably get him home in front - and if it doesn’t, then it’s anyones guess as to what will win.
In the circumstances, I feel it’s a race best watched !

2:55

I do like Down the Highway in this…
He’s a novice, who is making his handicap debut today, after just 3 runs over hurdles.
2 of those runs were really good.
He won on his rules debut at Lingfield - and was a very creditable fourth last time, in a hot novice hurdle at Chepstow.
Sandwiched in between those run, he was a very disappointing favourite for a grade 2 event at Sandown.
We have to be prepared to ignore that run - but the fact he has already bounced back from it, makes that a relatively easy thing to do…
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - but as a former PTP winner, that could easily bring about improvement.
His opening mark of 133 looks very fair - whist the fact that his trainer (Emma Lavelle) has a 33% strike rate at Haydock (6 from 18), is another positive…
Most of his rivals are far more exposed - and if Down the Highway is as good as I think, then he should be able to take care of them.
Fingers crossed !

3:35

I think that the unseasonably quick ground, provides a strong angle into this race…
Many of the runners - including a few of the market leaders - would much prefer soft/heavy ground and I suspect today conditions will catch them out…
The way I’ve decided to tackle the race, is by spreading stakes across 3 horses who I think will handle the ground.
My main fancy for the race, is Impulsive Star.
He provided one of our seasons high-lights so far, when winning last time at Warwick.
He’s been raised 6lb for that win - but I suspect he’s got a fair bit more in the tank.
Certainly, a rating of 139 doesn’t look overly harsh in absolute terms - particularly in the context of his run on last seasons NH chase at the Cheltenham festival.
The second one of interest, is Pobbles Boy.
He is on the current list of eye catchers - and simply, is too well handicapped to leave alone.
He’s not run for 3 months, which is a worry - though apparently the plan was to run him in the Welsh National over Christmas.
However, his rating has dropped to such an extent, he didn’t make the cut for that race !
There is little doubt in my mind that he is the best handicapped horse in the race - and whilst the trip is a slight concern, is he jumps around cleanly and him stamina holds out, I think he’s the one to beat.
The final one I want on side, is favourite, Robinsfirth.
He ran really well last time, when runner up to Wakanda.
The 2lb weight pull should make is close between the pair today - however, that was Robinsfirths seasonal debut ,so I would expect him to make greater improvement.
I also think he will be better suited by todays underfoot conditions…
In summary, whilst I could have just gone EW on my strongest fancy, that approach is more susceptible to the vagaries of luck.
Having 3 selections, all suited by conditions, give us a strong hand in the race.
Hopefully one of them will manage to come home in front…

4:10

Kateson is the most likely winner of this race - but this could be a very strong contest.
Furthermore, he is unproven over todays trip - and would prefer softer ground.
In the circumstances, he can’t be entertained at a price of 2/1…
Instead, I’m going to take a risk on Highland Hunter.
He caught my eye last time, when finishing third in an open handcip over todays course and distance.
The most striking thing about his run that day, was the fact that he managed to go close to winning, despite refusing to settle for most of the race.
That suggested that he has a lot of talent - whether he has enough to win today race, is a different matter - but I do think he’s been under-estimated in the betting.
In truth, it’s a race where you can’t be overly adamant about anything.
Virtually all of the runners are improving fast - so form in the book doesn’t count for a great deal.
Stoney Mountain, Lisnagar Oscar and Ask Ben, are 3 others of potential interest - though all 3 were significantly shorter in the betting than Highland Hunter.
Truckin Away is the other one I considered siding with, as he was also a 14/1 shot.
However, I just prefer the claims of Highland Hunter and didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to warrant supporting 2 in the race.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Asc 1:35 Now McGinty 1pt win 7/2
Asc 3:20 Didtheyletuoutto 0.5pt win 9/1
Asc 3:55 Politologue 1.5pt win 7/2
Asc 4:30 The way you Dance 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 2:55 Down the Highway 1pt win 13/2
Hayd 3:35 Impulsive Star 1pt win 9/1
Hayd 3:35 Pobbles Bay 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 3:35 Robinsfirth 0.5pt win 8/1
Hayd 4:10 Highland Hunter 0.5pt win 14/1

Mentions

Asc 1:00 Brio Conte (C )
Asc 2:10 Calipto (C )
Asc 2:45 Terrefort (S )
Hayd 1:55 Shades of Midnight (O )

Dobbers

Asc 3:20 Nordic Combined