There
are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Haydock, Ascot and Huntingdon in the UK -
plus Gowran Park in Ireland.
There
is limited quality at both Huntingdon and Gowran - so the focus for the day is
on Haydock and Ascot.
Both
are decent cards - but I can’t
help but feel they could have been better…
We
are still awaiting some significant rain - and the ground at both venues is on
the cusp of being too quick.
As
a consequence, the fields for the days big conditions races, are smaller than
ideal - and there must be a chance of a non runner or two.
The
handicaps have generally stood up better - but they are very competitive and
with prices tight, finding decent bets is not easy (when is it ever
?!).
With
no particularly strong fancies on the day, I’ve
ended up with 5 small-ish tips.
They
all have a chance - but are relatively speculative.
Let’s
hope one of them can deliver a ‘surprise !
As
always, I’ve methodically worked my way through all of the main races - and have
a view on most of them.
As
some of you are already aware, Craig is pulling together pool bets which he is
placing via Colossus.
Details
of how it all works, can be found on the forum - but simply, it gives people the
chance of a big payout for a small risk.
He
intends to create a syndicate most Saturdays - plus a few other additional
days.
If
you are interested, I would suggest setting things up in the forum so that you
automatically receive an email, when he posts on the ‘Colossus Bets’ sub-forum.
Details
of how to do that, can be found on the first post in the main forum.
Anyway,
back on subject...!
Here’s
the rationale for todays tips - plus my other thoughts on the days
action.
Ascot
12:55
This
is an open looking race and whilst I think Cresswell Legend is the most likely
winner, he’s far too short in the betting, at 3/1.
I’d
rather take a chance on something at a bigger price - and there are a few
potential options !
Head
of the list, is Spiders Bite.
I
was quite interested in him when he made his seasonal debut over hurdles, at
Aintree, last month.
He
ran pretty well that day, travelling nicely, into the home straight.
What
was particularly noticeable about him, was his shocking hurdling technique
!
He
landed on all 4, over most of the hurdles - and that must have cost him a lot of
ground and momentum.
I’m
really not surprised to see him switched to fences today - and so long as his
fencing technique is more economical than his hurdling technique, I think he
will run well.
It
adds to his case, that Henry Daly has his horses in top form - and generally,
they do improve for a fence.
At
a bigger price, I think it is also worth taking a chance on Merry
Milan.
He’s
even riskier than Spiders Bite, as he is making his seasonal debut (as well as
his debut over fences).
However,
he has already been withdrawn twice on account of quick ground, so I’m sure he’s
ready to run (even if he may improve for the outing).
He’s
only run 3 times under rules - all over hurdles.
He
won one of those - but looks every inch a chaser (which is supported by the fact
he has also won a PTP).
It
seems significant that connections have switched him to the bigger obstacles, so
quickly - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.
In
truth, it’s not a race you could be dogmatic about - because most of the runners
are unexposed.
However
I like the profiles of both Spiders Bite and Merry Milan - and at decent prices,
think they are worth a risk.
1:30
I
was hoping to get involved with this race - but I was unsure as to which horse I
was going to tip !
I
just about like Oscar Rose best - but she has nothing in hand of either
Petticoat Tails or Jubilympics - and also disappointed last time
out.
With
the 3 of them so closely matched - and also heading the betting, I figured there
might be value elsewhere - and I thought I’d found it…
Malindi
Bay was a 14/1 shot when I ‘discovered’ her yesterday evening - and I felt that
under-estimated her chance.
In
truth there's a lot of guesswork required, as she is very unexposed.
However,
she clearly has potential and could have been worth a small risk at a
price.
Alas,
that price has collapsed - and at 8/1 this morning, she is not worth
supporting.
I
was a little nervous that her trainer is close to the top of the cold list
(having gone 440 days since his last winner !) - so it was never going to take
too much to put me off !
In
truth, it’s an open race, in which no result would particularly surprise
me.
With
no obvious ‘value’ bet, I think it is best just to watch…
2:05
It’s
quite tempting to take on Politologue in this…
He
doesn’t have much in hand of his rivals on official ratings - and there has to
be a chance that he won’t be 100%, on his seasonal debut (though he does have a
very good record fresh).
It’s
also interesting that Harry Cobden has opted to go to Haydock, to ride Clan des
Obeaux, rather than partner him…
If
I were to oppose him, it would be with Charbel.
He
doesn’t have a lot to make up on official ratings - and he made a really good
impression when beating Baron Alco on his seasonal debut at
Chepstow.
I’m
sure he will run well - just not absolutely sure that he’ll win…
The
main concern I have, is that the small field could result in a tactical
race.
Gold
Present is the most likely pace in the race and if James Bowen grabs the
initiative, there is a chance he could steal it.
I
can’t see the small field working in Benatars favour.
I
tipped him last week at Cheltenham, but he was a non runner.
I
think he would have gone very close in that contest - but I’d be less optimistic
in this one.
I
suspect he could have the natural ability to win - but his tendency to pull,
will certainly count against him, if there is no pace.
All
in all, it just feels like too much of a lottery to get involved
with.
I’d
maybe take a chance on Charbel at 4/1 or bigger - but 7/2 leaves no
margin…
2:40
Whist
there are 6 runners declared, this is effectively a 3 horse race.
More
than that, Old Guard should really come third - meaning that who wins, is
effectively a toss up between If the Cap Fits and We Have a Dream.
Again,
tactics are likely to prove crucial - making it a very difficult race to
call.
Rayvin
Black may give a lead to We Have a Dream - and if that is the case, then he’s
likely to prove a tougher rival for If the Cap Fits, than he was last time, at
Wincanton.
He’s
also got a ‘cute’ jockey, in the shape of Barry Geraghty.
That
said, Noel Fehily rides If the Cap Fits - and he’s no mug, either !
Prices
of 2/1 We Have a Dram and Evens If the Cap Fit, strike me as about
right.
Certainly,
it’s an easy enough race to swerve, from a betting perspective.
3:15
When
I first looked at this race, Cyrname was the horse that stood out to
me.
He’s
a second season novice, who competed at the highest level last season - and an
opening mark of 150, could easily under-estimate his ability.
However,
he is at his best dominating small fields - and he’s not going to get that
scenario today.
With
13 runners, it’s not a small field - and he will also face significant
competition for the lead, in the shape of Speredek.
The
trip of 2m1f is also on the short side for him - particularly on quick going
(which is also not in his favour).
All
this said, I might still have taken a risk on him, as I think his class might
see him through.
However,
his price has contracted from an early 6/1 to 7/2 - and that’s too short,
considering the risks…
Instead,
I’d rather take a chance on Gardefort.
He’s
making his seasonal debut - but he’s run well fresh in the past and I have
little doubt that Venetia will have him ready.
It’s
a year since he last ran - but he put in a big effort that day, when finishing
fourth in a hot race at Aintree, over a trip that stretched his
stamina.
His
run prior to that, was in the 2016 Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival,
where he finished an honourable second.
He
runs off a mark just 1lb higher today, so it’s hard to argue that he’s not a
potentially well handicapped horse.
As
you would expect in a race of this nature, plenty of others can be given a
chance.
To
an extent, the result will depend on how things pan out, in terms of pace,
position and jumping.
Hopefully
Gavin Sheehan will settle Gardefort in behind the leaders and them make a
decisive strike in the home straight !
Haydock
1:15
Kalondra
sets the standard for this race - and whilst there are some concerns regarding
his jumping, the small field and relatively soft Haydock fences, should give him
the perfect conditions to get his season back on track.
I
would expect him to run very well - and think he’s the right favourite - but I
couldn’t back him because it’s hard to get a proper handle on most of his
opponents.
Magic
Saint is the most interesting - but he is making his UK debut for Paul Nichols
and could literally be anything.
I
would expect the betting to give a good guide - but I wouldn’t completely count
on it !
River
Wylde could be very good - but he hasn’t run for a over a year, which his
concerning - and has also had a wind op, which suggests he may have had
issues.
Full
Glass is another who could be almost anything - having only run once in the UK.
He’s being target at the Caspian Caviar gold cup, so I suspect he will improve
for todays run.
I’m
not a huge fan of Activial: whilst Crucial Role has a lot to prove…
In
short, I would make Kalondra the most likely winner - but would be fearful of
Magic Saint and River Wylde.
As
the 3 of them occupy the top 3 places in the betting, it’s hard to see an angle
into the race !
1:50
I
could make a case for the top 5 in the betting in this - but I like Admiral
Barratry best…
He’s
the least experienced runner in the line up, having run only 5 times over
hurdles - with just 4 of those coming in the UK.
He’s
not won a race, either ! - though he arguably should have done last
time…
That
was at Kempton, when he was denied victory by the antics of one of his rivals
(who ran across him).
That
said, I still think he should have won - and it struck me that the ride Lizzy
Kelly gave him, was very much with another day in mind (hopefully today
!).
In
fairness, it was the horses first run for nearly a year - so maybe she just
wanted to ease him back in to things.
The
form of his outing at Newbury, last December, really couldn’t read much better,
as his split the now 149 rated Lostintranslation and the now 152 rated Black
Op.
Off
a mark of 133 today, Addmiral Barratry is potentially handicapped to dot up
!
Obviously
it would be nice if he did - but he does face some tough opposition…
Topweight,
Cyrus Darius makes his debut for Colin Tizzard - and if he extracts some
improvement from the horse, he’ll be a tough nut to crack.
Black
Mischief is another who I would expect to run very well; Whilst Mr Antolini was
an eye catcher at Cheltenham last time - and I would be loathed to oppose him,
if the ground were a bit softer (I think he needs to soft ground to perform at
his best).
Again,
it’s a race where it’s hard to completely dismiss any of the runners - but if
Admiral Barratry is as well handicapped as I think he may be, I think he will
win.
2:25
It
is quite tempting to take on First Assignment in this.
He
was a very impressive winner at Cheltenham last weekend - and gets in this
afternoon with just a 5lb penalty.
He
is effectively 8lb ‘well in’ - and that makes him attractive - and unattractive
!
Clearly
he has a very good chance at the weights - but connections will know that and it
will almost force them to run.
I
don’t think the race he won last weekend was particularly strong - and he’s
apparently quite a fragile horse.
At
6/4, I couldn’t back him…
The
trouble is, I can’t find anything to oppose him with !
Shades
of Midnight was an eye catcher last time - and on soft ground, I would be all
over him.
However,
I do think he needs soft ground to operate - and he’s not going to get
that.
It’s
a similar story with Theos Charm - who would be very interesting at his
favourite venue, if the ground were softer…
Paisley
Park is the one I probably like most - but he can have very little wriggle room
from a mark of 147.
At
a price, I would have considered him EW - but 5/1 wouldn’t be that price -
particularly with the dead 8 runners (there may be a NR)…
Captain
Cattistock and Bobo Mac have both got theoretical chances - but I’m not overly
keen on either.
Consequently,
it has to be a watching race - even if I think it might be an opportunity missed
!
3:00
Even
with just the 5 runners, this is the race of the season so far - and by some
margin !
Native
River and Might Bite - first and second in a classic Gold cup - lock horns
again.
On
the much quicker ground, the betting expects Might Bite to reverse the form from
March - and I’m incline to agree.
That
said, I’m not sure that there should as much between their respective prices, as
there is (Even money and 3/1).
In
theory, that could make Native River a bet - but it’s hard to back the horse you
expect to come second !
In
truth, this might not even be a 2 horse race - as a case of sorts can be made
for the 3 other runners.
Bristol
de Mai has been unbeatable at Haydock in recent seasons - but most of that has
seemed to be down to very heavy ground - and he won’t get that today !
Might
Bite comfortably had his measure when the 2 met at Aintree, at the end of last
season - and I would expect a similar outcome today.
If
you could rewind the clock 18 months, then Thistlecrack would be very
interesting.
He
seemed to have the world at his feet at that point - but then he picked up an
injury and last season didn’t happen for him.
Connections
are adamant they have him back to his best - and if they do, he could easily be
in the mix.
However,
he is now rising 11 - and against such strong apposition, you have to wonder
whether he will be quite good enough.
Clan
des Obeaux certainly shouldn’t be good enough - which makes Paul Nicholls
bullish comments about him, very interesting.
Again,
with slightly lesser opposition, he could be tempting - but Might Bite and
Native River are out of the very top drawer, so it will take a massive effort on
his behalf, if he is to beat them.
Ultimately,
this can only be a watching race.
Might
Bite is an exceptional talent - and all things being equal, I think he will
win.
Everything
fell right for Native River in March (ground and tactics) and he managed to find
a chink in Might Bites armour.
I
don’t expect to see the same thing happen this afternoon - but I do hope to see
a great horse race…
3:35
I
thought long and hard about tipping Captain Redbeard in this…
He
was an eye catcher last time out, on his seasonal debut over hurdles at
Carlisle.
My
feeling at the time, was that he was being prepped for a run over the Aintree
fences next weekend - so I was a little surprised to see him running in
this.
I
think he has a very good chance - not least because I’m happy to oppose the
other 2 market leaders, Braquer Dor and Vintage Clouds.
The
former got a 4lb rise for winning a 3 horse race: Whilst the latter is likely to
improve for his seasonal debut…
In
fact, I was more interested in Vintage Clouds’ stablemate, Delusionofgranduer -
however, I would expect Danny Cook to be riding him, if he were
fancied…
Connections
of Buywise are probably quite happy for his handicap mark to drop - which left
just Takingrisks…
Unfortunately
(or fortunately !), he is very interesting…
He
was a well backed winner of a fair handicap hurdle at Ayr on his most recent
outing.
He
was ridden by Danny McMenamin that day - and he keeps the ride this
afternoon.
I’d
already got my eye on him - and was a little disappointed that he won the
Greatwood last Sunday, as his profile is now significantly raised !
Such
is life.
He
still gets a 7lb allowance - and as with James Bowen last season, that makes all
of his mounts, of interest…
Nicky
Richards is in good form at the moment - and Takingrisks is his only runner on
the card.
The
claim of McMenamin effectively brings the horses rating down to 123 - and he can
win from that mark.
The
question, in my mind, is whether Captain Redbeard can give him 17lb…
I’m
not sure on that score: but Stuart Coltherd is another trainer who isn’t
currently in great form - and Captain Redbeard is less than half the price of
Takingrisks…
Ultimately
it was a value call - and I wouldn’t put any of you off saving stakes on Captain
Redbeard.
Officially
speaking however, the money is on Takingrisks !!
Here’s
hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc
12:55 Spider Bite 0.75pt win 10/1
Asc
12:55 Merry Milan 0.5pt win 20/1
Asc
3:15 Gardefort 0.5pt win 18/1
Hayd
1:50 Admiral Berratry 1pt win 13/2
Hayd
3:15 Takingrisks 1pt win 13/2
Mentions
Asc
1:30 Malindi Bay (S )
Asc
2:05 Charbel (P )
Hayd
1:15 Kalondra (O )
Hayd
2:25 Paisley Park (C )
Hayd
3:00 Might Bite (P )
Eye
Catchers
Asc
2:05 Benatar
Hayd
1:50 Mr Antolini
Hayd
2:25 Shades of Midnight
Hayd
3:15 Captain Redbeard
