Daily write-up - Nov 24th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Haydock, Ascot and Huntingdon in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

There is limited quality at both Huntingdon and Gowran - so the focus for the day is on Haydock and Ascot.

Both are decent cards - but I can’t help but feel they could have been better…

We are still awaiting some significant rain - and the ground at both venues is on the cusp of being too quick.

As a consequence, the fields for the days big conditions races, are smaller than ideal - and there must be a chance of a non runner or two.

The handicaps have generally stood up better - but they are very competitive and with prices tight, finding decent bets is not easy (when is it ever ?!).

With no particularly strong fancies on the day, I’ve ended up with 5 small-ish tips.

They all have a chance - but are relatively speculative.

Let’s hope one of them can deliver a ‘surprise !

As always, I’ve methodically worked my way through all of the main races - and have a view on most of them.

Before I move on to that - just a quick mention for the ‘Colossus bets’ in the TVB forum: http://tvb-forum.2355940.n4.nabble.com/Colossus-Bets-f13977.html

As some of you are already aware, Craig is pulling together pool bets which he is placing via Colossus.

Details of how it all works, can be found on the forum - but simply, it gives people the chance of a big payout for a small risk.

He intends to create a syndicate most Saturdays - plus a few other additional days.

If you are interested, I would suggest setting things up in the forum so that you automatically receive an email, when he posts on the ‘Colossus Bets’ sub-forum.

Details of how to do that, can be found on the first post in the main forum.

Anyway, back on subject...!

Here’s the rationale for todays tips - plus my other thoughts on the days action.

Ascot

12:55

This is an open looking race and whilst I think Cresswell Legend is the most likely winner, he’s far too short in the betting, at 3/1.

I’d rather take a chance on something at a bigger price - and there are a few potential options !

Head of the list, is Spiders Bite.

I was quite interested in him when he made his seasonal debut over hurdles, at Aintree, last month.

He ran pretty well that day, travelling nicely, into the home straight.

What was particularly noticeable about him, was his shocking hurdling technique !

He landed on all 4, over most of the hurdles - and that must have cost him a lot of ground and momentum.

I’m really not surprised to see him switched to fences today - and so long as his fencing technique is more economical than his hurdling technique, I think he will run well.

It adds to his case, that Henry Daly has his horses in top form - and generally, they do improve for a fence.

At a bigger price, I think it is also worth taking a chance on Merry Milan.

He’s even riskier than Spiders Bite, as he is making his seasonal debut (as well as his debut over fences).

However, he has already been withdrawn twice on account of quick ground, so I’m sure he’s ready to run (even if he may improve for the outing).

He’s only run 3 times under rules - all over hurdles.

He won one of those - but looks every inch a chaser (which is supported by the fact he has also won a PTP).

It seems significant that connections have switched him to the bigger obstacles, so quickly - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.

In truth, it’s not a race you could be dogmatic about - because most of the runners are unexposed.

However I like the profiles of both Spiders Bite and Merry Milan - and at decent prices, think they are worth a risk.

1:30

I was hoping to get involved with this race - but I was unsure as to which horse I was going to tip !

I just about like Oscar Rose best - but she has nothing in hand of either Petticoat Tails or Jubilympics - and also disappointed last time out.

With the 3 of them so closely matched - and also heading the betting, I figured there might be value elsewhere - and I thought I’d found it…

Malindi Bay was a 14/1 shot when I ‘discovered’ her yesterday evening - and I felt that under-estimated her chance.
In truth there's a lot of guesswork required, as she is very unexposed.

However, she clearly has potential and could have been worth a small risk at a price.

Alas, that price has collapsed - and at 8/1 this morning, she is not worth supporting.

I was a little nervous that her trainer is close to the top of the cold list (having gone 440 days since his last winner !) - so it was never going to take too much to put me off !

In truth, it’s an open race, in which no result would particularly surprise me.

With no obvious ‘value’ bet, I think it is best just to watch…

2:05 

It’s quite tempting to take on Politologue in this…

He doesn’t have much in hand of his rivals on official ratings - and there has to be a chance that he won’t be 100%, on his seasonal debut (though he does have a very good record fresh).

It’s also interesting that Harry Cobden has opted to go to Haydock, to ride Clan des Obeaux, rather than partner him…

If I were to oppose him, it would be with Charbel.

He doesn’t have a lot to make up on official ratings - and he made a really good impression when beating Baron Alco on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

I’m sure he will run well - just not absolutely sure that he’ll win…

The main concern I have, is that the small field could result in a tactical race.

Gold Present is the most likely pace in the race and if James Bowen grabs the initiative, there is a chance he could steal it.

I can’t see the small field working in Benatars favour.

I tipped him last week at Cheltenham, but he was a non runner.

I think he would have gone very close in that contest - but I’d be less optimistic in this one.

I suspect he could have the natural ability to win - but his tendency to pull, will certainly count against him, if there is no pace.

All in all, it just feels like too much of a lottery to get involved with.

I’d maybe take a chance on Charbel at 4/1 or bigger - but 7/2 leaves no margin…

2:40 

Whist there are 6 runners declared, this is effectively a 3 horse race.

More than that, Old Guard should really come third - meaning that who wins, is effectively a toss up between If the Cap Fits and We Have a Dream.
Again, tactics are likely to prove crucial - making it a very difficult race to call.

Rayvin Black may give a lead to We Have a Dream - and if that is the case, then he’s likely to prove a tougher rival for If the Cap Fits, than he was last time, at Wincanton.

He’s also got a ‘cute’ jockey, in the shape of Barry Geraghty.

That said, Noel Fehily rides If the Cap Fits - and he’s no mug, either !

Prices of 2/1 We Have a Dram and Evens If the Cap Fit, strike me as about right.

Certainly, it’s an easy enough race to swerve, from a betting perspective.

3:15

When I first looked at this race, Cyrname was the horse that stood out to me.

He’s a second season novice, who competed at the highest level last season - and an opening mark of 150, could easily under-estimate his ability.

However, he is at his best dominating small fields - and he’s not going to get that scenario today.

With 13 runners, it’s not a small field - and he will also face significant competition for the lead, in the shape of Speredek.

The trip of 2m1f is also on the short side for him - particularly on quick going (which is also not in his favour).
All this said, I might still have taken a risk on him, as I think his class might see him through.

However, his price has contracted from an early 6/1 to 7/2 - and that’s too short, considering the risks…

Instead, I’d rather take a chance on Gardefort.

He’s making his seasonal debut - but he’s run well fresh in the past and I have little doubt that Venetia will have him ready.

It’s a year since he last ran - but he put in a big effort that day, when finishing fourth in a hot race at Aintree, over a trip that stretched his stamina.

His run prior to that, was in the 2016 Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival, where he finished an honourable second.

He runs off a mark just 1lb higher today, so it’s hard to argue that he’s not a potentially well handicapped horse.

As you would expect in a race of this nature, plenty of others can be given a chance.
To an extent, the result will depend on how things pan out, in terms of pace, position and jumping.

Hopefully Gavin Sheehan will settle Gardefort in behind the leaders and them make a decisive strike in the home straight !

Haydock

1:15

Kalondra sets the standard for this race - and whilst there are some concerns regarding his jumping, the small field and relatively soft Haydock fences, should give him the perfect conditions to get his season back on track.

I would expect him to run very well - and think he’s the right favourite - but I couldn’t back him because it’s hard to get a proper handle on most of his opponents.

Magic Saint is the most interesting - but he is making his UK debut for Paul Nichols and could literally be anything.
I would expect the betting to give a good guide - but I wouldn’t completely count on it !

River Wylde could be very good - but he hasn’t run for a over a year, which his concerning - and has also had a wind op, which suggests he may have had issues.

Full Glass is another who could be almost anything - having only run once in the UK. He’s being target at the Caspian Caviar gold cup, so I suspect he will improve for todays run.

I’m not a huge fan of Activial: whilst Crucial Role has a lot to prove…

In short, I would make Kalondra the most likely winner - but would be fearful of Magic Saint and River Wylde.

As the 3 of them occupy the top 3 places in the betting, it’s hard to see an angle into the race !

1:50

I could make a case for the top 5 in the betting in this - but I like Admiral Barratry best…

He’s the least experienced runner in the line up, having run only 5 times over hurdles - with just 4 of those coming in the UK.

He’s not won a race, either ! - though he arguably should have done last time…

That was at Kempton, when he was denied victory by the antics of one of his rivals (who ran across him).

That said, I still think he should have won - and it struck me that the ride Lizzy Kelly gave him, was very much with another day in mind (hopefully today !).
In fairness, it was the horses first run for nearly a year - so maybe she just wanted to ease him back in to things.

The form of his outing at Newbury, last December, really couldn’t read much better, as his split the now 149 rated Lostintranslation and the now 152 rated Black Op.

Off a mark of 133 today, Addmiral Barratry is potentially handicapped to dot up !

Obviously it would be nice if he did - but he does face some tough opposition…

Topweight, Cyrus Darius makes his debut for Colin Tizzard - and if he extracts some improvement from the horse, he’ll be a tough nut to crack.

Black Mischief is another who I would expect to run very well; Whilst Mr Antolini was an eye catcher at Cheltenham last time - and I would be loathed to oppose him, if the ground were a bit softer (I think he needs to soft ground to perform at his best).

Again, it’s a race where it’s hard to completely dismiss any of the runners - but if Admiral Barratry is as well handicapped as I think he may be, I think he will win.

2:25

It is quite tempting to take on First Assignment in this.

He was a very impressive winner at Cheltenham last weekend - and gets in this afternoon with just a 5lb penalty.

He is effectively 8lb ‘well in’ - and that makes him attractive - and unattractive !

Clearly he has a very good chance at the weights - but connections will know that and it will almost force them to run.

I don’t think the race he won last weekend was particularly strong - and he’s apparently quite a fragile horse.

At 6/4, I couldn’t back him…

The trouble is, I can’t find anything to oppose him with !

Shades of Midnight was an eye catcher last time - and on soft ground, I would be all over him.
However, I do think he needs soft ground to operate - and he’s not going to get that.
It’s a similar story with Theos Charm - who would be very interesting at his favourite venue, if the ground were softer…

Paisley Park is the one I probably like most - but he can have very little wriggle room from a mark of 147.

At a price, I would have considered him EW - but 5/1 wouldn’t be that price -  particularly with the dead 8 runners (there may be a NR)…

Captain Cattistock and Bobo Mac have both got theoretical chances - but I’m not overly keen on either.
Consequently, it has to be a watching race - even if I think it might be an opportunity missed !

3:00

Even with just the 5 runners, this is the race of the season so far - and by some margin !

Native River and Might Bite - first and second in a classic Gold cup - lock horns again.

On the much quicker ground, the betting expects Might Bite to reverse the form from March - and I’m incline to agree.
That said, I’m not sure that there should as much between their respective prices, as there is (Even money and 3/1).

In theory, that could make Native River a bet - but it’s hard to back the horse you expect to come second !

In truth, this might not even be a 2 horse race - as a case of sorts can be made for the 3 other runners.
Bristol de Mai has been unbeatable at Haydock in recent seasons - but most of that has seemed to be down to very heavy ground - and he won’t get that today ! 

Might Bite comfortably had his measure when the 2 met at Aintree, at the end of last season - and I would expect a similar outcome today.

If you could rewind the clock 18 months, then Thistlecrack would be very interesting.
He seemed to have the world at his feet at that point - but then he picked up an injury and last season didn’t happen for him.

Connections are adamant they have him back to his best - and if they do, he could easily be in the mix.

However, he is now rising 11 - and against such strong apposition, you have to wonder whether he will be quite good enough.

Clan des Obeaux certainly shouldn’t be good enough - which makes Paul Nicholls bullish comments about him, very interesting.

Again, with slightly lesser opposition, he could be tempting - but Might Bite and Native River are out of the very top drawer, so it will take a massive effort on his behalf, if he is to beat them.

Ultimately, this can only be a watching race.

Might Bite is an exceptional talent - and all things being equal, I think he will win.
Everything fell right for Native River in March (ground and tactics) and he managed to find a chink in Might Bites armour.

I don’t expect to see the same thing happen this afternoon - but I do hope to see a great horse race…

3:35

I thought long and hard about tipping Captain Redbeard in this…

He was an eye catcher last time out, on his seasonal debut over hurdles at Carlisle.

My feeling at the time, was that he was being prepped for a run over the Aintree fences next weekend - so I was a little surprised to see him running in this.

I think he has a very good chance - not least because I’m happy to oppose the other 2 market leaders, Braquer Dor and Vintage Clouds.

The former got a 4lb rise for winning a 3 horse race: Whilst the latter is likely to improve for his seasonal debut…

In fact, I was more interested in Vintage Clouds’ stablemate, Delusionofgranduer - however, I would expect Danny Cook to be riding him, if he were fancied…

Connections of Buywise are probably quite happy for his handicap mark to drop - which left just Takingrisks…

Unfortunately (or fortunately !), he is very interesting…

He was a well backed winner of a fair handicap hurdle at Ayr on his most recent outing.

He was ridden by Danny McMenamin that day - and he keeps the ride this afternoon.

I’d already got my eye on him - and was a little disappointed that he won the Greatwood last Sunday, as his profile is now significantly raised !

Such is life.

He still gets a 7lb allowance - and as with James Bowen last season, that makes all of his mounts, of interest…

Nicky Richards is in good form at the moment - and Takingrisks is his only runner on the card.

The claim of McMenamin effectively brings the horses rating down to 123 - and he can win from that mark.

The question, in my mind, is whether Captain Redbeard can give him 17lb…

I’m not sure on that score: but Stuart Coltherd is another trainer who isn’t currently in great form - and Captain Redbeard is less than half the price of Takingrisks…

Ultimately it was a value call - and I wouldn’t put any of you off saving stakes on Captain Redbeard.
Officially speaking however, the money is on Takingrisks !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 12:55 Spider Bite 0.75pt win 10/1

Asc 12:55 Merry Milan 0.5pt win 20/1

Asc 3:15 Gardefort 0.5pt win 18/1

Hayd 1:50 Admiral Berratry 1pt win 13/2

Hayd 3:15 Takingrisks 1pt win 13/2

Mentions

Asc 1:30 Malindi Bay (S )

Asc 2:05 Charbel (P )

Hayd 1:15 Kalondra (O )

Hayd 2:25 Paisley Park (C )

Hayd 3:00 Might Bite (P )

Eye Catchers

Asc 2:05 Benatar

Hayd 1:50 Mr Antolini

Hayd 2:25 Shades of Midnight

Hayd 3:15 Captain Redbeard