Daily write-up - Nov 16th

Day 1 of the Cheltenham November meeting.

The rain of last week, means proceedings will start on ground described a good to soft - which sounds perfect.
More than that, there is no rain forecast for the next couple of days - so we should know exactly where we stand in terms of under-foot conditions.

I was very happy with all this - though, a little less happy with the fields for the opening day…

They are fine, in some respects.

It’s varied, competitive racing - but they are generally small: certainly much smaller than you expect at Cheltenham.

As a consequence, trying to find an edge is hard.

All of the runners with a chance, have been spotted in the early markets - and there really is precious little value to be had.

That’s a shame - but it’s the way it is and I don’t want to force things, in order to find tips…

That said, I have found a couple - one of which, I’m sure raised a few eye brows !

Here’s the rationale behind them both - plus my thoughts on the days other races…

Cheltenham

12:40

Numerically, there is a disappointing turn out for this - but there is nothing wrong with the quality of the market principals and victory for any of the top 5 in the betting, would come as no great surprise.

For Good Measure heads the betting, which, as an unexposed chaser, trained by Philip Hobbs and ridden by the incomparable, Derek O Connor, is to be expected.

Furthermore, he is potentially well handicapped (compared to his hurdles mark), so if everything clicks for him, he will probably win.

That said, there are plenty of things that could go wrong (mainly connected to the fences !) - and there is no value in a quote of 7/2…

The Young Master is a different beast, in so much as he is very well handicapped based on old form - the question is whether he is in decline.

A win at Chesptow on his seasonal debut, suggested that the fire still burns - though I wonder how much he had in hand that day…

Certainly, approaching the final fence, he looked likely to be swallowed up by his rivals - but he battled tenaciously on the run in.

Maybe he was just a bit straighter than them - we’ll find out this afternoon…

Back in fourth that day, was Lovely Job.

He looked as if he was coming to win the race, approaching the last - but couldn’t quicken, after jumping it.

It looked for all the world as if he needed the run - and on 6lb better terms with The Young Master today, there must be every chance that he can reverse the form.

Certainly, at respective odds of 4/1 and 8/1, it’s not hard to see where the value lies…

The other 2 of major interest are Station Master and Sky Pirate.
Both are relatively inexperienced and jumping round Cheltenham won’t be easy for them.
Station Master has the services of Jamie Codd to help him - but he fell 3 times from 6 runs in PTPs, so he will need to have wised up since then.

There have been no obvious issues with Sky Pirates jumping - but he’s only faced fences twice under rules, so it remains to be seen how he copes with the challenge of Cheltenham…

It really is a very hard race to call, as a good case can be made for any of the 5.

Ultimately, I felt it had to be a ‘value’ call - and at 8/1 Lovely Job represent the value in the race.

1:15

This is an impossible race to assess with any confidence.

20 unexposed novice hurdlers - most of whom have huge scope for improvement.

It’s quite possible that one or two, could literally have a stone in hand of their current mark - but we have to guess as to which ones…

Favourite Dostal Phil is one of those who could be way ahead of his mark.

The bare form of his fourth to Whatmore on his UK debut, suggests he’s not badly handicapped - but he could easily leave that behind, now he tackles handicap  company.

There is even more guesswork involved to assess second favourite Dream du Grand Val, as he is making his UK debut this afternoon.

With his connections, the market was never going to take any chances…

Even outside those two, there are a raft of potential improvers.

My Brother is having just his fourth run over hurdles - but that is still 2 more than Antunes and Snookered.

All 3 could literally be anything.

Ofcourse, there is also the possibility that the 5 mentioned aren’t that good (and I very much doubt all 5 will be !) - though I’ll be a little surprised if the winner does come from outside the quintet mentioned.

Dostal Phil is the most obvious one - but there is no value in a price of 5/2.

There is also just too much guesswork needed to support Dream du Grand Val (though I would expect the betting to provide clear direction on his chance).

If I were to get involved with the race, I would be inclined to take a chance on Snookered.

He could easily get caught out by his inexperience, in such a big field - but I suspect he will ultimately prove to be a fair bit better than his opening mark of 113.

Brian Ellison doesn’t have the best of records at Cheltenham - but I do like the fact he has booked Danny McMenamin to ride the horse.

He looks tremendous value for his 7lb claim - and Snookered is possibly worth a small speculative play at 20/1.

1:50

I spent a lot of time looking at this race - but I just can’t find an angle…

Bun Doran sets the standard, having finished runner up off a pound higher mark on his seasonal debut, 12 months ago.

It’s hard to think he won’t go very close - but I doubt he has much in hand of his mark and there is no margin in a price of 11/4.

A Hare Breath is another who is handicapped to go very close - if his jumping is up to scratch.

He’s a horse who runs his best races when fresh - so first time out is the time to catch him.

He’s not badly handicapped either - based on his hurdles form. However, there has to be some doubt as to whether he can run to the same level of form over fences…

Doitforthevillage won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and in theory should have a very good chance of following up from a mark just 2lb higher.

However, he would prefer softer ground - and he is making his seasonal debut, so could need the run.

His usual jockey, Paddy Brennan, rides Bun Doran, which does suggest that today may not be the day for Doitforthevillage…

The issue for Shanahans Turn, is the trip.

His best form is over 2m4f , so the bare 2 miles of this contest is likely to provide an insufficient stamina test.

Movie Legend has a chance - but the race might be slightly too classy for him. That said, he has dropped back to a mark from which he should be competitive.

Peppay le Pugh, on the other hand, is going up the handicap - and it looks as if the handicappers may currently have his measure.

That’s also the case with Rock on Rocky, who is also not getting any younger !

In summary, I think the race is most likely to be won by Bun Doran, A Hare Breath or Movie Legend.

Bun Doran is the solid option (and most likely winner): whilst A Hare Breath could win, if his jumping holds up - and Movie Legend is the value call…

2:25

This is a fascinating race - but another one which his nearly impossible to call…

Count Meribel sets the standard, courtesy of his win on his fencing debut at Carlisle.

He jumped really well that day - and if he gets into a similar rhythm this afternoon, he will be hard to pass.

That said, I have a feeling that at least one of his opponents will manage to overtake him…

Which one is a tough to say, as all of his rivals - bar possibly Graasten - have the potential to make up into high class chasers..

Mr Whipped has been installed favourite - and he could be very good.

He won a grade 2 hurdle race at Warwick last season, beating Paisley Park - which is high class novice hurdle form.

He has to prove that he can jump a fence - but if he can, he could well prove to be  a bit too quick for Count Meribel, in the closing stages.

Both White Moon and Jerrysback are filed in the folder labelled ‘could be anything’ !

The former was massively impressive on his first 2 starts last season - but broke his pelvis on his third run and hasn’t been seen since.

Jerrysback hasn’t run for nearly 2 years - but was impressive in winning his first 2 races over hurdles - and prior to that, won a PTP in his native Ireland (suggesting  fences shouldn’t be a problem for him).

The betting will likely advise on expectations for both of them…

Jenkins and Le Breuuil are the final two, worth considering.

They are more exposed than their rivals - so we have a slightly better idea of what we are dealing with.

That said, both have only run (and won !) once over fences, and there is a chance they could improve for the bigger obstacles.

To be honest, I don’t think that will happen.
I’m not a massive fan of Jenkins - and he just doesn’t look like a chaser to me.

I was a big fan of Le Breuil last season - but ultimately he disappointed.

In fairness, he apparently had physical issues - so maybe he will show his true colours this campaign.

However, a laboured victory over a solitary rival at Huntingdon, didn’t really suggest that he was going to be setting the novice ranks alight this season.

If forced, I would probably side with him as the ‘value’ option - but in truth, I suspect that the race will be won by one of the less exposed runners (Mr Whipped, White Moon or Jerrysback)

3:00

As regular readers will know, I’m not in the habit of tipping 2/1 shots !
In fact, I think Josies Orders is the shortest priced horse I’ve ever tipped (in 7 seasons !)

However, the thing is, granted a bit of luck, I just can’t see him losing - and I’ve got no other way of handling it…

In the past, he would probably have been a Top Pick - but I ditched those with a view to making them highly staked tips.
As a consequence, I should really have staked 3 or 4pts on Josies Orders today - but I can’t quite bring myself to do that.

The fact I’ve not, is no reflection on the horse - or on how I feel about its chance.
It’s simply that it’s early in the season - the ground is quick, the field is small - and there are 32 fences to be navigated on a cross country course !

In short, the degree of ‘chance’ is a fair bit higher than I would have liked !

If you took that out, then I would be very confident…

In summary, this is an uncompetitive race.

It’s hard to look beyond the top 3 in the market: and Josies 2 main rivals, Tiger Roll and Bless the Wings, are both making their seasonal debuts.

Furthermore, Bless the Wings will be 14 in 6 weeks time - and whilst age is no issue with Tiger Roll, I can’t believe he’ll be spot on for this, with a long season ahead of him.

He also has to give Josies a stone in weight.
When they met in the is race 12 months ago, he was giving him 2lbs - and finished miles behind him.

He reversed the form at the festival in March - but I don’t think that is particularly relevant today.

Outside the main 3, then you are really clutching at straws…

The other 4 runners are all making their cross country debuts - and whilst they may take to the course like ducks to water, they may not !

With 3 previous wins at the course - plus 2 on the banks course at Punchestown, Josie really has ticks in every box.

He’s had a prep run over hurdles to get him fit - and will have no issue with the quick ground.

If Carlsberg made racing certainties, then he would be one !

What could possibly go wrong ?!?!?

3:35

Unlike the previous race, I don’t have a strong view on this contest…

Similar to the novice chase earlier on the card, one horse sets the form standard - this time it is Double Treasure - but he will probably find himself reeled in close home, by an unexposed rivals…

Pym, Collaney and Darlac are the 3 most likely winners - but I wouldn’t really want to choose between them.

All 3 come from stables who know the time of day with their novices - and all 3 are apparently highly rated.

Darlac has the weakest form of the 3 - but could still be a bit of value at 11/2.

This is definitely a watching race, though…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Chel 12:40 Lovely Job 1pt win 8/1

Chel 3:00 Josies Orders 2pt win 2/1

*Mentions

Chel 1:15 Snookered (S )

Chel 1:50 A Hare Breath (C )

Chel 2:25 Le Breuil (O )

Chel 3:35 Darlac (S)

*The letter following the Mention, is the reason why it wasn’t a tip: Price; Opposition, Conditions; Speculative