Daily write-up - Nov 11th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Sandown and Ffos Las in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

There has been significant rain at Sandown in the past 48 hours.

40mm has apparently fallen - and whilst the going is now described as ‘soft’ , it’s anyones guess as to how it will be riding.

Consequently, I again have to tread very carefully…

In terms of the racing - then Sandown put on an interesting and varied card.

In theory there are 2 or 3 races where I should have been able to find a tip - but it wasn’t quite that simple.

The racing isn’t of the same quality at Ffos Las.

Though there are a few potentially very decent horses running in the novice events - and the novice chase at 2:00, looks like it could be a cracker…

At Navan: small fields are the order of the day in the 2 big conditions races - and these combine with some big field handicaps to make a relatively punter unfriendly card !

I’ve still managed to find a tip though

Here’s the rationale for that one - and the other one I issued at Sandown - along with my thoughts on most of the days other ‘big’ races…

Sandown

12:45

I was going to take a risk on Kings Walk in this - but the rain and the NRs, have put me off…

He impressed me when wining at Kempton last February - and I’m surprised he gets into todays race from a mark just 3lb higher.

The form of his Kempton win looks strong (relatively speaking): with The Mighty Don second and Django Django fourth, both having already won fair races this season…

My concern with him, is that he is probably just having this run as a pipe opener before going chasing. He has got a good record fresh - but that is still a slight concern.

Also, I’m not sure he’ll relish very heavy ground.
Again, he’s run OK on it in the past - but I don’t think it would be his surface of choice !

At a price, I might well have taken a risk - but I would have wanted double figures and he’s now down to 8/1…

Asylo is the obvious danger in the race, on his debut for Dr Newland; however, Ballywood, Eragon de Chanay and Cheap and Cheerful are 3 others, who I would be a little wary of.

I wouldn’t stop anyone from having a little play on Kings Walk - but I don’t feel he quite warrants being an official tip.

1:15

I like the look of Springtown Lake in this - but unfortunately, so does every else !

He showed very decent form as a novice hurdler last season - and makes his chasing debut today.

As with a lot of Philip Hobbs horses (War Sound being the most recent example !), there is a fair chance he will show improved form, too - and if he does, that will make him hard to beat.

The trouble is, this is a very competitive race - in which it it hard to get a handle on most of the runners - so you have to guess as to whether he will be good enough.

I’d be prepared to do just that - at a price. However, that price would be a fair big bigger than the 7/2 currently on offer…

Dentley de Mee probably sets the standard for the race - even though he is also making his chasing debut.
His hurdles form from last season is very solid - and he made a pleasing reappearance last month, when second at Market Rasen.

No Hassle Hoff is another potentially interesting one, who is making his chasing debut: Whilst Coningsby showed plenty at Carlisle, last weekend, before inexplicably running out.

He’s fitted with cheek pieces today, but I still don’t think he’s one for the faint hearted !

Wolfcatcher is yet another one of some interest, at a price…

So a short list of 5 - in a 10 horse race.

Best just to watch, I think…

2:20

I don’t particularly fancy Terrefort in this - but I’m not sure that any of his rivals will want to beat him !

The trouble is, he’s rated 158, so if anything does beat him, they are likely to get a ratings hike to around 160 (depending on exactly how things pan out).

Realistically, that would probably to scupper their chance of winning a big handicap (such as the Ladbroke) - and I’m sure that connections of the other 3 runners, have a big handicap in mind for their charges.

Of course, there is a chance that Terrefort significantly under-performs - in which case the handicapper won’t necessarily impose a ratings hike - but it’s a big risk for the other 3 runners to take…

As a consequence, it’s not a race I would want to play in.

All 4 runners still have bundles of potential - and it’s definitely a contest that is worth watching, with an eye for the future.

Elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick are the 2 that I’ll be keeping a particularly close eye on - I’ll just be a little surprised if either one comes home in front…

2:55

A 22 runner handicap, run on questionable ground - it could be argued that a pin, is the best method of selecting the winner of this particular contest !

However, in the spirit of ‘marking your card’, I’ll offer a couple who I think have a better chance than most…

Turning Gold is the first of them.

He won on the heavy at Haydock last season(so should handle the ground) - and followed that up by running fifth in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival (so should handle the big field).

He looks competitively handicapped to me - and I’m a bit surprised he’s as big as 16/1.

It’s not a race I want to tip in - but if I had tipped, he would have been the one…

Ar Mest is more speculative: however, he has decent novice form and comes from the stable of Gary Moore (who loves to have winners at Sandown).

He was also a 16/1 shot – but has been backed in to 12/1…

In truth, there are plenty of unexposed ones in the race - and there must be a chance that one or two of them will proved to be well ahead of their marks.

If you do play in the race, I would recommend keeping stakes to a minimum…

3:25

The recent deluge of rain, has persuaded me to take a chance of Tenor Nivernais in this…

He’s a horse who just can’t have it soft enough - so he will welcome every drop of rain that falls.

In truth, he is very risky, as he showed absolutely nothing last season and there must be a chance that he’s gone at the game.

That said, he only ran 3 times - and one of those runs was in the Grand National - so it’s impossible to say, categorically.

What I do find amazing, is that he started last season on a mark of 157 - and today he is running off a mark of just 139.

The handicapper has therefore dropped him 18lb - effectively for 2 disappointing runs.
He may be right - but he’s taking a huge risk…

Just 5 runs ago, Tenor Nivernais dotted up at Ascot, off a mark of 150.

If he is even close to that level of form today, he is likely to do the same thing…

The other thing I particular like about him, is that he’s a horse who has always run well fresh.

2 seasons ago, he ran a cracker on his seasonal debut, to be beaten just 2 lengths in a £60K race; whilst the season before that, he won by almost 30 lengths, on his first outing of the campaign…

Of course that’s all in the past - and may no longer be relevant - but then again..!

In terms of his rivals: then I would be quite keen on Caroles Destrier - if the ground wasn’t so soft; and whilst Rock Gone clearly has a chance, the fact he is trained by Dr Newland, will mean that he’s a shorter price than he should be.

Loose Chips sets the race standard - and it’s hard to see him out of the frame, at a course where he always runs well.

Whilst Theatre Guide is another who could have been interesting - without the rain…

 

 

Navan

1:35 

As regular readers will know, I’m a massive fan of Apples Jade.

Hugely talented - and with an attitude to match - she will take a bit of beating in this.

She disappointed a couple of times at the back end of last season, but Gordon Elliott believes he’s now got to the bottom of that.

If she’s at her peak today, she will win - but I doubt she’ll be at her peak…

That said, even at 90% she is going to take a bit of beating.

According to the odds, Identity Thief is the one most likely to take advantage, if she does under perform,

Again, I’m a fan of his (helped by his win at Aintree, last season   ) - but he’s another who is making his seasonal debut, and will doubtless be better for the outing…

In fact all of the runners in the field are appearing for the first time this season - apart from one…

Arctic Fire has already run 3 times this season - and whilst he disappointed last time, that was over too short a trip and his previous defeat of Flaxen Flare at Cork, showed he retains plenty of ability.

In truth, he probably doesn't retain the same level of ability that saw him finish second in the 2015 Champion hurdle - but he may not need to…

I think that 2m4f on decent ground, is now perfect for him - and I can see Denis O’Regan riding a waiting race and looking to pounce late.

Hand on heart, I’m not sure he’ll be good enough to beat Apples Jade - but I won’t be at all surprised if he beats the others and we will then get to find out just how fit Apples Jade is…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Sand 3:25 Tenor Nivernais 0.5pt win 16/1

Nav 1:35 Arctic Fire 0.5pt EW 16/1

*Mentions

Sand 12:45 Kings Walk (C )

Sand 1:15 Springtown Lake (O )

Sand 2:55 Turning Gold (O ) & Ar Mest (S )

*The letter following the Mention, is the reason why it wasn’t a tip: Price; Opposition, Conditions; Speculative