Daily write-up - Nov 4th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Carlisle and Huntingdon in the UK - plus Cork in Ireland.

The racing is uncompetitive at Huntingdon - but that’s not the case at either Carlisle or Cork and it was far easier to find selections today, than it was yesterday…

Carlisle in particular, puts on a very good card - and whilst I’ve only issued a couple of tips there, all of the races should be worth watching closely, as there are some very interesting horses running.

Just a quick note on prices…

I know everyone is keen to secure the best price they can: but all of the tips I issue are in competitive races - and into markets which are reasonably mature.

If you chase down prices on the exchanges, you will regret it later, as the horses will almost certainly drift back out to roughly the price I advised.

I know it’s not easy to be patient - but it should be possible to secure the advised price on most of the selections, so try to resist taking under those odds on BF (all you do is trigger an avalanche, which makes it hard for anyone to get a price).

Anyway, here’s the rationale for todays tips - plus my thoughts on a couple of the other races at Carlisle.

Carlisle

1:30

This is a fascinating race, which I’m sure is chock full of future winners.

Most of the 13 runners are having their first outing over fences - and have scope for significant improvement.

Trying to find the winner, is nearly impossible (which is why I’ve not bothered !) - though Al Shahir, for the Skeltons, looks the most likely..

They had a similar horse in the novice handicap hurdle at Ascot yesterday - and it bolted up (having been very strong in the market all day).
Highly regarded as a novice hurdler last season, it would be no surprise if Al Shahir showed himself much better than his current mark, this afternoon.

Most of the others are interesting - but I will be keeping a particular eye on Cake De L’isle, Grand Morning and Coningsby, as I could see all 3 going on to better things, later in the season…

2:40

Valadom is an old service favourite - and I can’t resist having him on side in this…

I tipped him 2 seasons ago, when he was a really gutsy winner at Bangor - and whilst he hasn’t won in 9 subsequent races, there have generally been good reasons for that…

3 of those races were over hurdles; 2 in cross country races at Cheltenham - and 1 in the Grand National.

Realistically, he had little chance of winning any of them…

Admittedly, he has run in 3 races where he did have a chance of winning - but he unseated in one of those - and finished a creditable fourth in another…

Yet despite all this he now finds himself on a mark 6lb lower than the one he won from at Bangor…

It is a little concerning that he had an 18 month break prior to his most recent run (presumably he had an injury of some sort), but he ran sufficiently well in that race (over hurdles) for me to think that he retains all of his ability.

If that is the case then he will take a lot of beating today.

He’s likely to bowl along at the head of affairs - and whilst there are a couple in the race who like to race prominently, I’m hopeful he’ll have a relatively easy time of it up front.

If Alain Cawley can get his fractions right, then he should prove very hard to pass, up the Carlisle home straight.

Of the others, then Dauphine Ereine is interesting.

She hasn’t got the form in the book, but is related to Dynaste - and it seems significant that David Pipe brings her all the way to Carlisle to run.

She could be worth saving stakes on.

Whilst Chef Doevre is another who I will be monitoring closely, on his first run for Sam England.

3:10

This is a tight little race, but I think it is worth taking a chance on Blunder Bus…

He’s relatively unexposed, having only run 6 times over hurdles - but he won a handicap on his penultimate outing and gets in today from a mark just 4lb higher.

As he’s still likely to be improving, that makes him of interest - and the booking of a 7lb claimer, heightens the interest further.

He was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Kelso, last month - but I suspect he needed that run and it’s clearly put a few people off !

He was also going left handed that day and there was a suggestion in his earlier runs, that he had a preference for going right handed (which is what he gets to do, today).

In terms of his rivals, then Dubai Angel, Petticoat Tails and Crixus’s Escape, all have notable potential.
Significant support for any of the 3 would worry me !

Aspen Colorado won well last time - and probably sets the standard for the race.

The other one that catches my eye, is bottom weight, Court Tycoon.

He is 3lb wrong in the handicap - but it seems significant that Peter Fahey has sent him over from Ireland.

I’ve resisted making him a proper saver - but I would suggest that saving stakes on him, might be prudent…

3:45

This is a cracking race - full of horses of great potential - but it’s nearly an impossible one to call…

It’s going to come down to which horse is fittest - and which connections are prepared to win, and thereby sacrifice a handicap mark, which could cost them a more valuable race, later in the season…

I don’t really want to guess on that one - but instinct tells me that Renes Girl is just about the most likely winner (as she should be fit - and could probably cope with a bit of a rise in the handicap).

That said, the one that interests me most, is Saint Leo…

He makes his debut for Sandy Thompson, after a year off the track, so it’s complete guesswork.
However, he beat the subsequent winner of the Grand Prix de Paris (Frances biggest steeplechase) last autumn, so he could be from the highest draw…

Certainly he could be better than todays rivals - which makes it quite tempting to take a punt on him.

At 20/1 now, he is maybe worth a small risk - but he will become far more interesting if he attracts support close to the off time…

Cork

3:15

The Cork National has drawn a big field of 20 - but I’ll be quite surprised if the race isn’t won by one of the top 6 in the betting…

Rogue Angel, Minella Beau, Oighear Dubh, Out Sam, Poormans Hill and The Gatechecker are at the head of the market - and I would suggest it’s long odds on, that one of them will come home in front…

Which one is a bit trickier to call - though I am quite keen on Out Sam.

Formerly trained in England by Warren Greatrex, he was always considered a horse of  great potential.
He was actually sent off favourite for the open handicap on the first day of the Cheltenham festival 3 seasons ago - but never featured.

He ran off a mark of 139 that day - and runs from a mark of 132 today.

Out Sam transferred into the care of Gordon Elliot at the beginning of last season - and it initially looked as if it had made little difference.
His first 3 runs were disappointing - but he was much better on his penultimate outing in the Ulster National.
He cantered in to the lead that day and looked certain to win, even after jumping the last.

However, he was carried wide by a loose horse - and faltered a little up the hill, eventually only finishing third.

He also finished third on his final run of the season, at Fairyhouse…

Based on those 2 runs, you could think that the handicapper has got him where he wants him - but I suspect that Elliott will get a few more pounds of improvement out of him this season.

He’s clearly not an easy horse to get to the bottom of - but the suggestion last season was that Elliot was gradually getting there…

If he does, then Out Sam is potentially well well handicapped - and provided he stays the trip, I think he is the one to beat…

If he comes up short, then I would expect one of the other 5 mentioned to take advantage - though I wouldn’t want to nominate which one !

One other horse worth mentioning in the race, is Velocity Boy.
I don’t think he will stay the trip - so I don’t think he will win.

However, I would expect him to travel strongly through the race - and maybe look as if he could win !

A pre-race back, with a view to laying off in running, is the way to play him…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Carl 2:40 Valadom 1pt win 11/1

Carl 3:10 Blunder Bus 1pt win 11/1

Cork 3:15 Out Sam 1pt win 10/1

*Mentions

Carl 1:30 Al Shahir (S)

Carl 3:45 Saint Leo (S)

*The letter following the Mention, is the reason why it wasn’t a tip: Price; Opposition, Conditions; Speculative