Daily write-up - Nov 3rd

Day 1 of the new TVB season and I was hoping to attack it, all guns blazing !

However, that’s not the case…

At the back end of last season, relentless rain messed up so many meetings - but today, it’s a lack of rain that’s the issue.

Maybe understandably, connections aren’t prepared to risk horses on ground with ‘firm’ in the description - particularly with a long season ahead - and as a result we have a number of relatively uncompetitive races…

That is a shame, as the prize money is good - and the 5 day declarations for many of todays races, looked really promising.

Such is life…

The situation will change - hopefully quite quickly - and when it does, I’ll be ready to strike !

As for today, then I’ve ended up with just 3 tips, across 2 races.

However, I’ve gone through all of the main races, on each of the 4 NH cards - so I can offer my views on them.

Maybe one or two additional opportunities will manifest themselves, near the off…

Ascot

1:50

Wenyerreadyfreddie looks the most likely winner of this - but he’s the 15/8 fav…

He ran really well last time on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter, when forcing Lil Rockerfeller to pull out all of the stops.

In truth, Lil Rockerfeller is not the best of yard sticks, as he only ever does enough to win - but it was a long way back to a 139 rated horse in third, so Wenyourreadyfreddie looks well handicapped today, off a mark of just 130.

He’s also got plenty of potential for improvement - so really looks the one to beat.

That said, he faces a number of unexposed rivals, most of whom are also capable of improvement, so it’s hard to be dogmatic about his chance.

I certainty wouldn’t be surprised to see Larry run well - and he could represent a bit of value at 7/1.

Inaminna is the complete outsider of the field, but he could also be interesting, as he’s totally unexposed.

If a big run is anticipated, I would expect him to be backed…

2:25

This is another race in which I expect the favourite to take a lot of beating.

In fact, even at 5/4, I think you can argue that Shantou Rock is a fair bet…

Unlike the previous race, it is possible to get a handle on all of the runners in this - and Shantou Rock looks by far the most likely winner.

He’s not badly handicapped - and has more potential than all of his rivals.

I’m pretty sure that Dan Skelton will have targeted him at this valuable race (it is worth £60K) - and with brother Harry riding at Ascot, rather than Wetherby - and Shantou Rock looking the most likely reason why, he’s going to take a bit of beating.

I’m not in the habit of tipping 5/4 shots (certainly not on the first day of the season !) - but the only way I can see him losing is if he gets into a pace duel with Ink Master - or if something goes wrong.

In short, I think he should win.

3:00

If the previous race looks a bit too obvious, then this one looks decidedly tricky !

Magic Dancer is the solid option, on the back of a good run at Cheltenham last week - however, I suspect he is beatable (even assuming he has recovered from that run) - and he is only a 9/2 chance…

Global Citizen is certainly one who could beat him - if he’s as good as he looked at Kempton, last February; whilst Simply the Betts is another with plenty of untapped potential.

Divin Bere looked much improved last time, when he won on the flat, following a wind op.

He’s well handicapped, based on his hurdles form from 2 seasons ago.

Sussex Ranger could also be of interest, if fully wound up for his seasonal debut…

All of the above named, have question marks of some sort against them, however - and whilst I’ll be surprised if they all under-perform, I won’t be at all surprised if 2 or 3 of them do…

Consequently, I think it is worth taking a risk that Jumping Jack can sneak into the frame…

He races off the minimum weight of 10st - and it’s very interesting that Sean Bowen takes the ride.

The horse has been in good form recently, so won’t lack for fitness and should relish todays conditions.

He’s also got a couple of pieces of form, which give him a fair chance: notably a second to Magic Dancer, a year ago (he’s effectively 4lb better off today, for a 2 length beating): and a fourth place in a decent race at this course in the spring…

He hasn’t got the potential of a few of todays rivals - but he going to be at his peak today, and that could just prove key.

3:35 

Go Conquer won the corresponding race 12 months ago, in scintillating style.

He’s 5lb higher in the handicap today - but that wouldn’t have stopped him then, and I think he’s going to be very hard to beat today.

I also think it’s in his favour that he is having his first run for Nigel Twiston Davies.
He’s very good at getting horses to peak on the debut outings.
In short, there isn’t a lot to dislike about him - apart from odds of 7/2.

I can’t make him the main bet at that price - but I think he’s worth backing as a saver.

For the main bet in the race, I am drawn to Geordie des Champs…

He’s relatively unexposed - but was an improver for Rebecca Curtis last season - which was quite impressive, considering the poor season she had !

I suspect she will do better this campaign - and the win of Relentlesss Dreamer at Cheltenham last weekend, backs this up.

Geordies des Champs already has form which gives him a fair chance - but with potential improvement - and Barry Geraghty in the saddle, I think he is worth having on side.

All of the others have question marks of one shape or another, against them - so I’m hopeful that a pincer attack on the race via Go Conquer and Geordie Des Champs, will yield dividends !

Wetherby

2:05

Irish Roe is officially the best mare in this race - and if she is fit enough to do herself justice, I think she’ll win.

However, we have to take her fitness on trust - as she is making her seasonal debut and she comes from a small stable.

I suspect she will be ready - but a price of 7/4, leaves no margin for error…

He main rival should be Lady Buttons.
She finished runner up the corresponding race 12 months ago - but was race fit, that day (following an outing on the flat).

She’s not race fit tomorrow - but is still likely to give Irish Roes most to think about.

Third fav, Oscar Rose is race fit - however, she has 18lb to make up with Irish Roe , on official ratings…

The gap between the 2 probably isn’t that greet - but all the same, it will be a little surprising if Oscar Rose is good enough to win.

That said, it will be even more surprising if one of the other 3 runners, is good enough to win !

Ultimately this boils down to how fit Irish Roe is - and as we would have to guess on that, it can’t be a race to get involved with.

2:40

There is a disappointing turn out for the big race of the day - with only 4 runners going to post.

Black Corton is now favourite - and whilst I can see the argument (a second season chaser, who will relish the quick ground, from a stable going great guns), his form doesn’t entitle him to head the market.

On adjusted official ratings, Double Shuffle is the best horse in the race, receiving weight from all of his rivals.
He will also have no issue with the quick ground and his second place in last seasons King George, is the best piece of form on offer.

His fitness has to be taken on trust - and he doesn’t have an amazing record fresh - but his connections will have missed a trick if they haven’t got him fully primed for the race.

That said, at a best price of 5/2, do you want to take the risk..?

In fairness, if forced, I would rather take a risk on him than on either Definitly red or Virgilio.

The former is likely to find the ground too quick; whilst I’m sure Harry Skelton would be on board, if the latter was really fancied.

Maybe 5/2 is not a bad price, looked at in those terms - however, I just feel there is a bit too much uncertainty to get involved…

3:15

I’m half tempted to take on Wholestone in this - but I suspect he’ll find a way to win…

He’s the best horse in the race on official ratings - and whilst he’s making his seasonal debut, I don’t expect that to be a problem.

What may be a problem, is quick ground, as I’m sure he would prefer some cut.

It is possible, that Monbeg Theatre might get loose on the lead - and Wholestone could struggle to peg him back.

That said, I would expect Daryl Jacob to be wise to that possibility - and Monbeg Theatre is a significantly inferior horse to Wholestone (on official ratings, at least).
Old Guard is the other one of interest - but he’s far from guaranteed to stay the trip (he could be a good back to lay in running option, however).

Ultimately, Wholestone should win - and probably will win - but I couldn’t be tempted by a price of 6/4…

Ayr

1:40

There are a couple of official eye catchers running at Ayr - and Our Kaempfer is the first, in this…

He caught the eye 3 weeks ago, in a decent race at Chepstow.

He cruised into the lead that day - but then found little and ultimately could finish only fifth.

He was dropped a pound for that run - drops back in trip by 3 furlongs - and will be sharper for the run.

All of this is good.
What isn’t so good, is the likelihood of significant rain at Ayr… (somewhat ironically !).

Our Kaempfer wants decent ground - and if it goes soft (which seems likely), it will compromise his chances.

I guess there’s a chance he will get away with it (depending on how much rain falls) - and his proven stamina at the trip might help - but at this point in the day, I would be guessing…

Once again, it doesn’t feel like a race that I can really get involved with.

3:25 

Le Patriote is the second eye catcher running at the meeting - and unlike Our Kaempfer, he will have no issue if the ground becomes soft.

He caught the eye at the same Chepstow meeting as Our Kaempfer - travelling strongly in the Tote Silver trophy, before weakening out of things after jumping the second last.
I’m sure the run will have brought him on - and it seems highly significant that Dr Newland sends him all the way up to Ayr for this race.

The issue with him is simply a price of 9/4, in a race where at least 3 of his rivals, look potentially serious dangers.

Martila won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and has to be feared today off a mark just 2lb higher; whilst Taxmeifyoucan is a potential improver - and should be fit from a recent run on the flat - and Potters Story still has plenty of scope for improvement…

I’m sure the market close to the off, will tell the tale for those 3 - and with a straight bat, Le Patriote is definitely the call - however, there is minimal margin in his price…

Down Royal

1:55

I was half tempted to take a risk on Scheu Time in this - or even Neverushacon…

The former is of interest, based on his run at Aintree last spring, when he would have won the amateur riders handicap which follows the Grand National, if he’d not fallen at the final flight.

His 3 runs since then have all been back in novice company - with him winning the most recent one.

They’ve not told us a great deal though - and I’m sure he remains fairly handicapped on a mark of 124.
I also like the booking of Paul Townend, who in my opinion, is in the top 5 NH jockeys riding at the moment (probably the top 3 !).

Neverushacon is more risky.

He’s rated much higher over fences - and is a recent winner on the flat.

He should have no issue jumping hurdles - but just doesn’t seem to be as good it !

If things do click for him, he’s potentially well handicapped - and a price of 18/1, would be generous…

However, the presence of the Willie Mullins trained Shanning, stops me from getting involved with the race.
She is a very lightly races mare - who has already shown good form (notably at the Galway festival) - and who has plenty of improvement in her.

It’s true that you should never be afraid of one horse - but she could really be different class to her rivals…
As a result, it’s a watching race.

2:30

This is a potentially cracking contest - though it is spoilt a little, by the fact that 5 of the 7 runners are owned by Gigginstown…

In fairness, they tend to play things with a straight bat - each horse running on its merits - but even so, you have to feel that someone is going to know more than you, with regards to the likely outcome !

I’d make Road to Respect the most likely winner.

He was a close second in the race last year - and as he’s still only 7, could well have improved since then.
In fairness, he will need to have done - as he again faces Outlander (the horse who bat him) - and that one has the benefit of a run this season.

I think the 3 mile trip might stretch Balko des Flos; but I would expect Sub Lieutenant to run well (he’s re-captured his best form recently).

Woodland Opera is also of some interest - and he’s not owned by Gigginstown !

On Official ratings, he has a lot to find with Balko des Flos and Road to Respect - but he’s in great from and has been improving with every outing.

At 14/1, he’s the value call in the race…

3:05

This is another fascinating contest…

Monalee heads the market - and whilst he’s an admirable horse, he doesn’t really  strike me as top class.

He sets the standard in the race - but that standard should be surpass-able…

Shattered Love and Snow Falcon are the 2 who I think could beat him.

The former is a top class mare - who was so impressive when winning the JLT chase at last season Cheltenham festival.
If she’s in that kind of form today, she will win - but it’s her seasonal debut and I suspect Gordon Elliott will have left something to work on.

Snow Falcon on the other hand, will be spot on for this.

He won the Kerry National on his most recent outing - and on adjusted official ratings, is the best horse in at the weights.

The issue for him is the trip - he would prefer further.

However, I can see Monalee setting the race up perfectly for him - so provided his jumping holds up (he’s not always foot perfect), I think he’s the most likely winner.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 3:00 Jumping Jack 0.5pt EW 25/1

Asc 3:35 Geordie des Champs 1.5pt win 13/2

Asc 3:35 Go Conquer 0.5pt win 7/2

*Mentions

Asc 1:50 Wenyerreadyfreddie (P)

Asc 2:25 Shantou Rock (P)

Wet 2:05 Irish Roe (P)

Wet 2:40 Double Shuffle (P)

Wet 3:15 Monbeg Theatre (O)

DR 1:55 Scheu Time (O)

DR 2:30 Road to Respect (O)

DR 3:05 Snow Falcon (O)

Eye Catchers

Ayr 1:40 Our Kaempfer

Ayr 3:25 Le Patriote

*The letter following the Mention, is the reason why it wasn’t a tip: Price; Opposition, Conditions; Speculative