Daily write-up - Nov 30th

It’s the first day, of the 2 day Winter carnival, at Newbury - and it’s attracted some fascinating runners…

The softer ground has resulted in a number of very interesting horses being declared, many of whom haven’t run for a long time - plus a few who are having their first runs in the UK.

I’m sure we’ll learn plenty from the day - but unfortunately, the interesting runners have also made most of the races nearly impossible to evaluate !

It will therefore generally be a case of watching, rather than betting…

In addition to Newbury, there is also NH racing at Doncaster and Limerick – and, somewhat surprisingly, the first named venue has managed to supply a tip !

The rationale for that is covered at the end of the write-up: first are my thoughts on the intriguing card at Newbury…

Newbury

12:10

This maiden attracted a strong field 12 months ago - and it looks to be the same situation again today…

Bang on Frankie sets the standard based on his last time out third to Thomas Dalby and Elixir de Nutz, at Cheltenahm

The first 2 home have already franked that form - and it will take a decent one to beat him today.
The trouble is there could easily be a good one in the field…

Severano ran well on his hurdling debut at Sandown; whilst Strong Glance, Betameche, and Jaytrack Parkhomes, all have very strong bumper form.

More than that, there are 3 or 4 totally unexposed types, who may be capable of big runs…

Clearly there is too much guesswork required to consider getting involved.

That said, it is the first of a number of races on the card, which it should pay to watch very closely…

12:45

This is a really interesting looking 7 runner handicap.

I was initially drawn to Al Shahir, who was extremely well backed on his seasonal debut, in what looks like turning out to be, quite a decent novice event at Carlisle.

He disappointed a little in only finishing fourth that day - but the handicapper has dropped him 2lb for the run and he drops half a mile in trip.

Clearly, someone thought him a well handicapped horse and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well this afternoon.
The issue is the opposition.

It’s very hard to get a handle on most of his opponents - and they nearly all have the potential to be much better than their current mark.

Kupatana looks a big improver for Nicky Henderson; whilst seasonal debutante, Clondaw Castle is another who could be much better than his current mark.

Dustin Des Mottes makes his UK debut for Dr Newland - and he could be anything: whilst both Knocknanuss and Delire Destruval could easily step up significantly, on the bare form of their sole chase wins.

Even outsider, The Last Day, can’t be confidently dismissed, on his chase debut…

In short, anything could win !

At a price, I might have taken a risk of Al Shahir - but that price would have been at least 6/1 and not the 9/2 which was available when I was able to tip…

1:20

A bit like the opening event on the card, this looks like a particularly strong novice hurdle.

Kateson sets the standard, following his hurdling debut win at Chepstow, early in the month.

A high class bumper horse last season, he was expected to win the Chepstow contest - but he did it nicely, and should be able to build on that.

His issue today, is that he has to give 5lb to some very promising sorts…

Morning Vicar, Drunken Pirate and Eclair Daney look the pick of his rivals (as the betting suggests).

However the first 2 named are making their hurdling debuts; whilst Eclair Daney is having his first run in the UK.

Again, it’s an impossible to race to bet in with any confidence - but could well prove to be a good source of future winners…

1:50

I put up Talkischeap as an eye catcher, following his seasonal debut third over todays course, earlier this month.

I thought he shaped with real promise that day - and definitely looked like one to be interested in next time.

However, I didn’t expect him to be taking on the 2 horses who beat him last time - and at the same weights !

There really is no reason why Talkischeap should beat either La Bague au Roi or Lostintranslation this afternoon - and I find it quite interesting that Alan King is even trying…

Maybe he thinks Talkischeap can improve past his two rivals - or maybe he just considers it a suitable race and will be happy with another placed effort.

I really don’t know - and whilst there is a modicum of appeal in the 12/1 quote about Talkischeap, it would rely on the 2 market leaders under-performing.

Even if that happen ,Talkischeap wouldn’t be guaranteed to win - as whilst there are only 4 runners in the race, Spiritofthegames is definitely not without a chance…

On balance then, it has to be another watching race.

La Bague au Roi strikes me as a top class performer - and she should get her ideal conditions.

I therefore would expect her to be very hard to beat - however, at odds of 5/4 I am happy to just watch her run…

2:45

The defection of Willoughby Court this morning, has spoilt this race a little…

I had half a mind to take him on, as he took out a third of the market, on his seasonal debut.

I’m sure he’s a potentially well treated horse: but I‘d be less sure that he would have been fully tuned for today.
Anyway, that opportunity no longer exists…

The one I was hoping to take him on with, was Touch Kick, who looked a fair price at 5/1.

However, with Willoughby Court out of the race, he is now a 5/2 shot - and that’s too short.

In fairness, it’s not hard to pick holes in the form of most of his rivals:

Kings Odyssey would like it softer - and can’t have much in hand of his mark: whilst Three Musketeers has always been a suspect jumper of fences.

I guess Beggars Wish could have improved into a 152 rated horse - but I’m not totally convinced: whilst Aso is still plenty high enough in the handicap and Ballyboley has been badly out of form.

In short, Touch Kick has the least question marks over him - even if he’s not completely solid himself.

I’d certainly be a little surprised if he didn’t run well - but I don’t feel sufficiently sure about him to suggest backing him at 5/2…

3:00

As you all know, I tipper Sam Spinner yesterday, for the Stayers hurdle at Cheltenham, in advance of his seasonal debut this afternoon…

I guess some of you will think that I am therefore expecting him to win this afternoon - but that’s not the case !

Don’t get me wrong - he may win - and if he does, it will be a real bonus for our ante-post position.

However, he is giving weight and/or race fitness to all of his rivals - so I’ll be quite happy to seem him finish with an honourable placing.

On official ratings, his 2 main rivals this afternoon are Wholestone and Unowhatimeanharry - and Sam Spinner has to concede race fitness to them both, plus weight to the latter.

I suspect that will prove too much for him, with a long season ahead - but time will tell..

If there is a bet in todays race, it is probably Unowhatimeanharry.

He may be in decline - but I’ve little doubt that his connections will be going to for it today, as his chance of big race success will just continue to recede, as the season progresses…

Of the others, then Momella is a fascinating runner on her first start for Harry Fry - though reading the trainer comments, this wasn’t the original plan.

That said, I’ll more trust the betting close to the off, for guidance on how she will actually perform !

3:35

I was hoping to find something to tip in this particular contest - but close examination revealed that it’s another minefield !

I would expect Bobo Mac to run well - and he probably sets the standard for the race, based on his second to Jersey Bean at Newbury, earlier this month.

However, he’s been raised 4lb for that run and I’ll be a little surprised if he doesn’t bump into a better handicapped rival this afternoon…

Juge et Parti should be a better handicapped rival,as he’s 8lb well in on official figures, following a good effort at Chepstow last week.
The question with him, is whether he will be fully recovered from those exertions…

The other main contenders aren’t as easy to assess…

Dragon D’estruval will be having only his second run for Nicky Henderson - and could literally be anything.

If he’s strong in the market, I wouldn’t look anywhere else for the race winner.

De Name Evades me is another handicap debutante, who could be almost anything - and again, the market is likely to advise on his chance.

There is no doubt that Aux Petit Sans could be very well handicapped, on a mark just 2lb higher than the one he won the 2015 Coral Cup from.

He’s making his debut for Dan Skelton this afternoon - and yet again, the market will likely advise on whether he is ready to do himself justice…

In addition to all those named, half chances can be given to Vive le Roi, Virginia Chick and Rockpoint.

Simply, it’s a race which can only be watched…

Doncaster

1:40

This is the best race on the Doncaster card - and I’m hopeful that Greybougg will make all in it…

He’s the only confirmed front runner in the race - and whilst the re-fitting of a hood (he’s worn it twice before) does put a slight doubt in my mind with regard to the tactics that will be employed - I’m hoping it’s back on, just to slightly curb his natural enthusiasm !

Certainly, it would seem silly to not exploit what looks like it could be a tactical advantage - and with Danny Cook on board, he certainly has the right jockey for the job, on board.

I would also hope that his recent seasonal debut run at Newbury, has taken a bit of the zip out him.

Despite finishing well beaten that day, he ran well until tiring in the home straight.
He’s been dropped 3lb for that run, which puts him back on the mark he won from at Uttoxeter last season.

Since that point he has generally run in stronger contests, so he should appreciate the drop in class afternoon.

Buster Thomas is favourite for the race - and whilst I would expect him to run well, he looks beatable.

Second favourite, Nightfly also looks vulnerable, on the back of a 5lb rise for his latest win..

Of the market leaders, I would be most fearful of Slanelough - even though he has most to prove.

Kauto Rico is the other one that slightly worries me.
I tipped him last time, when he got no further than the first fence at Aintree.

He was very weak in the market that day, so it will be interesting to see if he comes in for any support this afternoon.

Hopefully he won’t !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Donc 1:40 Greybougg 0.75pt win 10/1

Mentions

Newb 12:10 Bang on Frankie (O )

Newb 12:45 AL Shahir (P )

Newb 1:20 Kateson (O )

Newb 2:25 Touch Kick (P )

Newb 3:00 Unowhatimeanharry (O )

Newb 3:35 Dragon D’estruval (S)

Eye Catchers

Newb 1:50 Talkischeap