Daily write-up - Nov 25th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Exeter and Uttoxeter in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

The English action is nothing to get excited about.

The meetings at Exeter and Uttoxeter are little better than those on offer during the mid week - with the high-light a few class 3 handicaps (assuming you ignore the presence of Lil Rockerfeller who runs in the novice chase at Exeter !).

There really is nothing that catches my eye, from a betting perspective, and both meetings are easily passed over…

It’s a different matter at Navan, however !

Obviously, the Troytown is the high-light of the card - a race with a rich TVB history !

However, the more I looked at the supporting card, the more interesting I found it.

Unfortunately, it’s never easy to tip in anything but the biggest Irish races - but there are certainly some interesting horses running…

Anyway, I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day: 2 in the Troytown - and 2 in the grade 3 novice hurdle.

Here’s the rational for the tips - and my other thoughts on the Navan card…

Navan

1:00

Dinons is a short priced favourite for this - but I think he’s worth taking on.

He’s racked up a load of wins during the summer, in relatively uncompetitive races - and as a result, finds himself penalised for today race against better class opponents.

Second favourite, First Approach is a very different beast.
He was impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Down Royal last time - but he effectively only had one rival to beat.

He will find todays contest much tougher…

Felix Desjy is third favourite - but he was very disappointing when a beaten favourite in a similar race to this, at Navan earlier this month.

He finished last in that race - well behind a couple of horses who re-oppose this afternoon…

Magniun was runner up in that race, on his first outing for Jessie Harrington - and I make him the most likely winner of todays contest.

He made the running that day - and battled on bravely when challenged by the eventual winner.

As it was his first run for 6 months - as well as his first for his new trainer - its reasonable to expect some improvement this afternoon.
If that is the case, then I think he will prove tough to beat…

I did originally intend to just tip him in the race - but the price of Choungaya has drawn me in !

He fished a length behind Magnium that day – but that is effectively just a decent jump at the last !

He’s more exposed than Magnium - but is an improving sort - and is trained by Joseph O’Brien (a TVB favourite !).

At odds of 20/1, I simply had to have him on side, as a saver…

1:30

This is a slightly strange race to have in the middle of a relatively big card…

The top weight is rated 114 - so the race would equate to a class 4 in the UK (there is no race classifications in Ireland).

With 17 runners - and precious little form to go on, it looks a minefield.

However, I’ll be very surprised if it’s not won by one of the top 3 in the market…

Share the Honour and Warnaq, have similar profiles in that they are horses whose flat ratings make them look extremely well handicapped over hurdles.

Warnaq is the slightly better horse on the flat - and is also a recent winner.

His flat rating of 88, suggests he could have 30lb in hand of his hurdles mark.

If that is the case, he will take bit of beating !

Share the Honour is rated 10lb lower on the flat, so off the same mark as Warnaq today, may only have 20lb in hand of his mark !

He is trained by Tony Marin however, so anything is possible…

Western Honour is a very different sort.

He was a very expensive purchase out of the PTP field, who disappointed for Paul Nicholls.

He’s now with Gordon Elliot (via James Moffat) - and if the horse has any talent, Elliot will doubtless tease it out.

Of the 3, I just prefer Warnaq - but there is minimal value in a price of 3/1 (accepting that the ‘randomness’ factor will be quite high, in a race of this nature).

2:00

Paloma Blue was a top class novice hurdler last season and I expect him to be much too good for his rivals this afternoon.

He finished third to Samcro on the Deloitte at Leopardstown in February - and followed that up with a fourth place in the supreme novice hurdle, at the Cheltenham festival.

More than that, the horse seemed to slightly under achieve over hurdles – and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him turn out to be an even better chaser.
That’s particularly true, as he is trained by Henry de Bromhead - and few trainers produce better jumpers of a fence.

With Lalor and Kalashnikov dominating the market, Paloma Blue can be currently backed at 16/1 for the Arkle - and I don’t think that’s a bad price.

Certainly, I could see him being single figures for the race, by 2:15 this afternoon…

2:30

I do love these big Irish handicap chases - and the Troytown is just about my favourite of the lot !

Those of you who have been with the service through the years, will remember the heart ache of Coutamundra - and the joy of Riverside City.

The highs and lows - it’s what NH racing is all about !!

They are getting harder to solve though - not helped by the fact that Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott seem to attack them all, mob handed.

The former own 7 of todays field - whilst the latter is responsible for no less than 12 runners !

That really is a crazy situation…

Jockey bookings should help sort out their runners - but with Jack Kennedy side lined, even that only offers limited clues…

I guess nobody said it was easy !

I have a short list of 6 for the race:

Minella Beau, Out Sam, Squouateur, Arkwrisht, Dounikos and Woods Well.

I’ll be disappointed if one of them doesn’t win - and I’ve backed them all, so that I won’t lose on the race, provided one of them is successful.

Minella Beau and Out Sam head the betting - so no marks for originality there !

They both last ran in the Cork National - and delivered their challenges at the third last.

However, Minella Beau crashed out at that point, leaving Out Sam to go on to win the race.

Out Sam is 8lb worse off with Minella Beau today - and whilst I think he won the race with a bit in hand, that should make things very close between the pair.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see either win - but at 8/1, I’m prepared to pass on them (officially speaking).

I’m also prepared to officially pass on Squouateur, though he definitely has the talent to win a race of this nature.

The trouble is, he’s a quirky individual and everything will need to drop right for him to get his head in front.

Arkwrisht has a definite chance.

He was well beaten in this race 12 months ago - and should have little chance off just a pound lower today.
However, he subsequently ran really well in the Irish National - and again on his seasonal debut behind Saint Calvados.

He may not appreciate the quick ground - but aside from that, has a very good chance.

I could have tipped any of the above 4 - but you have to draw a line somewhere (particularly in a race of this nature).
instead I decide to split stakes between the 2 at the biggest prices - as I think both are capable of winning.

Coincidently, both are owned by Gigginstown and trained by Gordon Elliot !

The first is Dounikos.

He’s an old friend , as I tipped him twice last season: firstly at Leopardstown - and then again at the Cheltenham festival.

He lost both times - but was mighty unlucky to do so, on the first occasion.
He was a huge price for a grade 1 contest that day - but I think he would just about have won, if he’d not been checked close home.

Ultimately, he was beaten under 2 lengths, in what was probably the hottest novice chase run during the entire season.

He gets into todays race off a mark of 150 - but Liam Mckennas claim effectively reduces that to 143.

Snow Falcon finished just behind him the Leopardstown race - and is currently rated 156. That suggests Dounikos could be very well handicapped - which is backed up by the ratings of a number of the other runners from the Leopardstown race.

The only concern is that the horse went off the boil after that run.
However, he won first time out last season - beating Monbeg Notorious.
That one subsequently hacked up in the Thystes.

If Elliot has Dounikos back in top from, he will win this afternoon…

Woods Well is a different sort.
He had a tough campaign for a novice last season - running in both the Thystes and the Irish National.

He performed with credit on a number of occasions - but looked an improved horse one his seasonal debut at Galway, last month.
He beat Rashaan that day - with Minella Beau 5 lengths back in third.

Minella Beau had a fitness advantage that day - so it’s difficult to see why he should reverse the form today, when he is only 2lb better off.

Certainly, at the respective odds (20/1 and 8/1), Woods Well represents the value and is worth having on side to back up Dounikos.

3:00

De Name Escapes me is a short price favourite for this on the back of a win in a similar race at Naas, earlier this month.

He may be capable of following up - but he’s 8lb higher today and the handicapper will get him sooner or later…

I prefer the chances of Edelpour.

He’s very inexperienced over hurdles, for a race of this nature - but he was a decent flat performer and could be capable of reaching a similar level over hurdles.

Certainly, his second to Mengli Khan last season, is high class novice form - and his subsequent efforts behind Magnium and then Sometime Soon (both of whom run in the 1:00 race), were fair efforts.

An opening handicap mark of 126 doesn’t look overly harsh for a horse with the ability to be rated 97 on the flat (he could easily end up rated a stone higher over hurdles).

Hurdling inexperience is the obvious concern - but a price of around 8/1 seems fair…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Nav 1:00 Magnium 1pt win 7/1

Nav 1:00 Choungaya 0.5pt win 20/1

Nav 2:30 Dounikos 0.5pt win 16/1

Nav 2:30 Woods Well 0.5pt win 20/1

Mentions

Nav 1:30 Warnaq (O )

Nav 2:00 Paloma Blue (P )

Nav 3:00 Endelpour (C )