It was nice to finish the month with a winner - though I
couldn’t help but feel that things should have been even better…
The win
came courtesy of Eddiemaurice, who got up under a pulsating drive from Jamie
Moore, to deny Caid du Lin in the shadows of the post.
As I said this
morning, I viewed Caid du Lin as the main danger to Eddiemaurice, and I got
within an inch of having a saver on him.
He had drifted out to 5/1 at
10:30 - which I thought was an acceptable price: but was then trimmed back to
9/2, just before 11:00.
It was a borderline call - and ultimately it didn’t
matter - but I would have been gutted if the photo finish had gone the other way
!
For once however, fate smiled on us - and in truth, it was nothing less
than Eddie and Jamie deserved…
Interestingly, despite an SP of 6/1 - his
BSP was almost 9/1.
Every winner that I have tipped during March, has had a
bigger BSP than the advised price - which is certainly food for thought (and
should help to discourage chasing down prices, when the tips are issued !)
I did think that Robin des Foret was going to deliver a second win on
the day, just 10 mins later.
Ridden very patiently by Paul Townend, he
came there cruising after the second last (traded at 1.34 in
running).
However, not for the first time this season, Ruby denied us a
payout - this time by galvanising Burrows Saint.
My feeling was that
Robin des Foret didn’t really stay the trip - whereas I had expected him to
improve for it.
I guess I can’t read everything right !
Bigbadjohn was
the final tip on day - and he ran a little disappointingly…
He gave up
the outside to no one (which I think is because he doesn’t like to be crowded in
his races) - and his jumping wasn’t fluent.
Despite that, he still looked
to have a decent chance, a mile from home - but then the race temp quickened and
he got outpaced.
He was staying on again at the end - but it wasn’t enough to
even get him a place…
As for the Mentions:
Then there was a bit of
frustration that I felt unable to tip Star Max.
As you all know, I try to
play the tipping as fairly as possible: issuing only when people can get on
(without fear of account closure !) - and in races with robust markets.
Star
Max was running in a relatively minor race, which I wouldn’t have felt
comfortable tipping in.
That was a shame as he performed as I hoped - and
ended up a game winner.
I know that quite a few of you backed him
'unofficially', which is always a consolation.
TVB - the service that gives
a little bit more :)
The days 2 other mentions ran at Ascot.
Honorable
never really featured in a very competitive juvenile hurdle: whilst Favorito
Bucks was always flat out, trying to get himself into the right position in the
handicap chase.
I was pleased that I didn’t chase down the price on him.
I fancied him strongly - but was aware that the trip could be an issue and
therefore demanded some margin in his price.
Simply, you have to show
discipline with prices, if you are going to bet profitably…
TVB.
Saturday 30 March 2019
Daily write-up - Mar 31st
There are 2 NH meetings today: at Ascot and
Limerick.
Things have been very quiet since Cheltenham: in truth, things have been very quiet for the past month - aside from Cheltenham !
That will change this week, however.
Not so much today: though both of the days meetings have some merit - but from Thursday onwards, when the Grand National meeting begins at Aintree…
Today provides a nice aperitif for that:
There is some decent racing at both Ascot and Limerick - and I particularly appreciated seeing the final declarations, 48 hours in advance.
It makes such a difference to studying the form.
Life would be so much easier, if is was introduced more generally (or at least, for Saturdays).
But alas, that is out of my hands !
Ofcourse, what it wouldn’t do, is make getting on any easier !
As always, the markets are both tight and fragile - which makes tipping a challenge.
That said, I did manage to find 3 horses who I felt were worth siding with at the generally available odds.
Now we just need one - or two - of them, to do the decent thing and come home in front !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Ascot
2:45
This is too open a race, to consider getting involved with…
Praeceps sets the standard on his 6th place in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
That’s obviously very strong form - and he possibly went for home too early that day.
Running off the same mark this afternoon, he sets the race standard (assuming he is fully recovered from his exertions).
That said, on the book, there is an argument for saying he shouldn’t beat Honorable.
There was just 2 lengths between the pair when they met at Market Rasen in February - and Honorable is no less than 22lb better off today !
It’s quite possible that Honorable is flattered by the run - but a price of 20/1 certainly makes him interesting…
However, the issue with the race, is that there are at least half a dozen others, who could easily be involved at the finish.
The unexposed Scaramanga for Paul Nicholls, is the most obvious one - though he has been well found in the market (3/1 fav).
Zafar and Al Kherb are similarly unexposed - but are both much bigger prices (11/1 & 25/1) which makes them more appealing…
Legal History ran really well at Newbury last Saturday, and must have a chance; as too must Irish raider, Quantatmental.
So that’s at least 7 in the race, that I could give a chance.
I think it’s time to move on…
3:20
By contrast to the previous race, this one looks too straightforward !
I spent a fair bit of time, yesterday evening, trying to work out what price I’d be prepared to tip Favorito Bucks at.
I reckon 2/1 is the ‘right’ price for him (possibly 7/4) - so I would have wanted 9/4, or ideally 5/2.
At 6/4 this morning, I quickly realised that I’d wasted my time trying to work out a ‘value’ price !
The issue is, he’s too obvious - and the opposition is too limited.
He’s actually run really poorly on his 2 most recent starts - but they were both on unsuitably soft ground.
He gets his ground this afternoon - and is back at the course where he was a good winner of a similar race, in November.
He runs from a mark just 2lb higher (because of his 2 poor subsequent runs) - and simply, is going to take a lot of beating.
There’s a slight question mark regarding the trip (it’s a bit shorter than ideal) - but he doesn’t lack pace and will probably get away with it.
The other big thing is his favour, is that non of his opponents look primed to win.
Vivas looks the most interesting of them - but he is still 3lb above his last winning mark, so may need to come down the handicap a little further…
This really does look Favorito Bucks race to lose - but 6/4 allows no margin for error, so consequently, he can only be watched.
3:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on the outsider, Eddiemaurice, in this…
He’s only run 5 times over fences in his life - and whilst he has never won, he ran really well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Lillington, at Newbury.
That one won again next time and is now rated 11lb higher, suggesting that Eddiemaurice faced quite a task that day.
In truth, for much of the home straight, it looked as if Eddiemaurice was going to win - but Lillington showed the greater resolution in the closing stages.
There is a slight concern that Eddiemaruice is a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse - though he has won 4 times over hurdles - most recently in December - so it’s not as if he can’t get his head in front.
He’s also won at Ascot - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today - so he is potentially well handicapped if everything does drop right.
That didn’t happen last time at Kempton, when he unshipped Jamie Moore at the very first fence - but I suspect Moore will be keen for atone for that, this afternoon…
Part of the attraction of Eddiemaurice is that I can see issues with all 4 of his rivals.
For a start, the top 3 horses all had their most recent outings at Cheltenham - though non of them featured in their respective contests.
Obviously, today will be a drop in class for them - but they will have been primed for the Cheltenham run, so may not be at a peak today.
They have also all got to concede at least 24lb to Eddiemaurice - and that’s a lot of weight.
Dentley de Mee is the other runner in the field - and he doesn't concede Eddiemaurice much weight.
However, his best form has been over further than todays 2m1f trip - so he may lack the required pace (particularly on quick ground).
The trip could also be an issue for Highway one o one, who has shown improved form since stepping up to 2m4f.
Capeland has already had quite a long season, suggesting that Caid du Lin could be the main danger to Eddiemaurice.
I certainly respect his chances - but he was less than half the price of Eddiemaurice, so I felt the value was with Eddie…
4:30
10 year olds tend to do well in these veterans races - and I think the three 10 year olds in this contest, are the ones to focus on…
Junction Fourteen is one of them - and he has a definite chance on his most recent run behind Looking Well, in a similar contest at Doncaster.
My main issue with him however, is that he’s at his best when able to dominate, and with Loose Chips in todays field, that’s unlikely to happen…
Van Gogh du Granit is the second 10 year old - and he ran well on debut for David Pipe last time, at Taunton.
I would expect him to improve for that run - and I could have been interested in him, apart from the fact that all his French form suggests that he wants much softer ground than he is going to get today (ideally heavy).
Which leaves Bigbadjohn…
He’s the third 10 year old in the race - and to be honest, has a tick in pretty much every box !
He has his first run today, for over 4 months - but he has a good record when fresh.
His best form is on good ground (which he will get) - and he’s won before at Ascot (over todays distance).
He has a preference for small fields (10 should just about be OK) - and he’s not badly handicapped.
He may not win - but I couldn’t ask for many more positives from his profile !
Of the others, then Josses Hill could be dangerous, because he has plenty of back class.
That said, his recent form isn't inspiring - and it’s always dangerous looking at the back class of horses who are clearly past their prime…
Limerick
2:20
This is not really a race I could consider tipping in (due to the strength of the market - and the bookmaker margins) - but if it had been possible, I would have been tempted by Star Max.
Joseph O’Brien has a very strong hand of juvenile hurdlers and this one had been progressing nicely, prior to his most recent run in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He was quite well fancied for that race - sent off 8/1 second favourite, behind his stablemate Band of Outlaws - but he ran disappointingly and never really featured.
You have to be prepared to forgive him that run - but it often pays to forgive a horse one bad run.
Certainly, based on his 3 previous runs over hurdles, he has a decent chance in this - and the fact he is trained by Joseph O’Brien, is a definite bonus.
In truth, this isn’t a race where it’s easy to get a handle on all of the runners.
Maze Runner is an understandable favourite, having finished second to Band of Outlaws on his most recent outing.
There’s a chance that run flatters him - but trained by Willie Mullins, he was never going to be much of a price.
Plenty of the others are tricky to assess - so it’s not a race where you could be overly confident.
That said, Star Max looks to have a better chance than most - and at around 8/1, doesn’t look a bad bet…
4:05
I think it is worth taking a chance on Robin de Foret in this.
He’s the apparent second string of Willie Mullins - and has to give weight to all of his rivals - but I still think he is worth siding with.
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - and on his preferred decent ground, I think that will unlock improvement.
He’s already the highest rated horse in the race, on official ratings - so if he is able to raise his game, then he will definitely take a bit of beating.
Certainly his hurdles form suggests that todays test is precisely what he needs.
He has won on heavy ground - but his best form is on a quick surface; similarly, he’s won over 2 miles - but has better form over further.
He disappointed on his most recent start, after a winter break - but he was hampered early in that race, so the run can be ignored.
His 2 previous runs in the autumn, were both very good: when runner up to Le Richebourg and when falling at the third last behind Winter Escape.
Based on those 2 runs, he is definitely the one to beat in todays race…
Obviously, the fact that he has apparently been over-looked by Ruby Walsh, in favour of stablemate Burrows Saint, is a concern.
However that one looks to need some cut in the ground - so today conditions could be an issue for him. He’s also unproven over todays trip - and therefore doesn’t hold much appeal at a price of 6/4.
Non of the others have form to match that of Robin des Forets - and they are all relatively exposed (so there is no reason to expect significant improvement).
In short, Robin des Foret represents a fair bet, at the available odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 3:55 Eddiemaurice 1pt win 8/1
Asc 4:30 Bigbadjohn 1pt win 6/1
Lim 4:05 Robin des Foret 1pt win 7/1 (pre R4)
Mentions
Asc 2:45 Honorable (S )
Asc 3:20 Favorito Bucks (P )
Lim 2:20 Star Max (C )
Things have been very quiet since Cheltenham: in truth, things have been very quiet for the past month - aside from Cheltenham !
That will change this week, however.
Not so much today: though both of the days meetings have some merit - but from Thursday onwards, when the Grand National meeting begins at Aintree…
Today provides a nice aperitif for that:
There is some decent racing at both Ascot and Limerick - and I particularly appreciated seeing the final declarations, 48 hours in advance.
It makes such a difference to studying the form.
Life would be so much easier, if is was introduced more generally (or at least, for Saturdays).
But alas, that is out of my hands !
Ofcourse, what it wouldn’t do, is make getting on any easier !
As always, the markets are both tight and fragile - which makes tipping a challenge.
That said, I did manage to find 3 horses who I felt were worth siding with at the generally available odds.
Now we just need one - or two - of them, to do the decent thing and come home in front !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Ascot
2:45
This is too open a race, to consider getting involved with…
Praeceps sets the standard on his 6th place in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
That’s obviously very strong form - and he possibly went for home too early that day.
Running off the same mark this afternoon, he sets the race standard (assuming he is fully recovered from his exertions).
That said, on the book, there is an argument for saying he shouldn’t beat Honorable.
There was just 2 lengths between the pair when they met at Market Rasen in February - and Honorable is no less than 22lb better off today !
It’s quite possible that Honorable is flattered by the run - but a price of 20/1 certainly makes him interesting…
However, the issue with the race, is that there are at least half a dozen others, who could easily be involved at the finish.
The unexposed Scaramanga for Paul Nicholls, is the most obvious one - though he has been well found in the market (3/1 fav).
Zafar and Al Kherb are similarly unexposed - but are both much bigger prices (11/1 & 25/1) which makes them more appealing…
Legal History ran really well at Newbury last Saturday, and must have a chance; as too must Irish raider, Quantatmental.
So that’s at least 7 in the race, that I could give a chance.
I think it’s time to move on…
3:20
By contrast to the previous race, this one looks too straightforward !
I spent a fair bit of time, yesterday evening, trying to work out what price I’d be prepared to tip Favorito Bucks at.
I reckon 2/1 is the ‘right’ price for him (possibly 7/4) - so I would have wanted 9/4, or ideally 5/2.
At 6/4 this morning, I quickly realised that I’d wasted my time trying to work out a ‘value’ price !
The issue is, he’s too obvious - and the opposition is too limited.
He’s actually run really poorly on his 2 most recent starts - but they were both on unsuitably soft ground.
He gets his ground this afternoon - and is back at the course where he was a good winner of a similar race, in November.
He runs from a mark just 2lb higher (because of his 2 poor subsequent runs) - and simply, is going to take a lot of beating.
There’s a slight question mark regarding the trip (it’s a bit shorter than ideal) - but he doesn’t lack pace and will probably get away with it.
The other big thing is his favour, is that non of his opponents look primed to win.
Vivas looks the most interesting of them - but he is still 3lb above his last winning mark, so may need to come down the handicap a little further…
This really does look Favorito Bucks race to lose - but 6/4 allows no margin for error, so consequently, he can only be watched.
3:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on the outsider, Eddiemaurice, in this…
He’s only run 5 times over fences in his life - and whilst he has never won, he ran really well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Lillington, at Newbury.
That one won again next time and is now rated 11lb higher, suggesting that Eddiemaurice faced quite a task that day.
In truth, for much of the home straight, it looked as if Eddiemaurice was going to win - but Lillington showed the greater resolution in the closing stages.
There is a slight concern that Eddiemaruice is a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse - though he has won 4 times over hurdles - most recently in December - so it’s not as if he can’t get his head in front.
He’s also won at Ascot - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today - so he is potentially well handicapped if everything does drop right.
That didn’t happen last time at Kempton, when he unshipped Jamie Moore at the very first fence - but I suspect Moore will be keen for atone for that, this afternoon…
Part of the attraction of Eddiemaurice is that I can see issues with all 4 of his rivals.
For a start, the top 3 horses all had their most recent outings at Cheltenham - though non of them featured in their respective contests.
Obviously, today will be a drop in class for them - but they will have been primed for the Cheltenham run, so may not be at a peak today.
They have also all got to concede at least 24lb to Eddiemaurice - and that’s a lot of weight.
Dentley de Mee is the other runner in the field - and he doesn't concede Eddiemaurice much weight.
However, his best form has been over further than todays 2m1f trip - so he may lack the required pace (particularly on quick ground).
The trip could also be an issue for Highway one o one, who has shown improved form since stepping up to 2m4f.
Capeland has already had quite a long season, suggesting that Caid du Lin could be the main danger to Eddiemaurice.
I certainly respect his chances - but he was less than half the price of Eddiemaurice, so I felt the value was with Eddie…
4:30
10 year olds tend to do well in these veterans races - and I think the three 10 year olds in this contest, are the ones to focus on…
Junction Fourteen is one of them - and he has a definite chance on his most recent run behind Looking Well, in a similar contest at Doncaster.
My main issue with him however, is that he’s at his best when able to dominate, and with Loose Chips in todays field, that’s unlikely to happen…
Van Gogh du Granit is the second 10 year old - and he ran well on debut for David Pipe last time, at Taunton.
I would expect him to improve for that run - and I could have been interested in him, apart from the fact that all his French form suggests that he wants much softer ground than he is going to get today (ideally heavy).
Which leaves Bigbadjohn…
He’s the third 10 year old in the race - and to be honest, has a tick in pretty much every box !
He has his first run today, for over 4 months - but he has a good record when fresh.
His best form is on good ground (which he will get) - and he’s won before at Ascot (over todays distance).
He has a preference for small fields (10 should just about be OK) - and he’s not badly handicapped.
He may not win - but I couldn’t ask for many more positives from his profile !
Of the others, then Josses Hill could be dangerous, because he has plenty of back class.
That said, his recent form isn't inspiring - and it’s always dangerous looking at the back class of horses who are clearly past their prime…
Limerick
2:20
This is not really a race I could consider tipping in (due to the strength of the market - and the bookmaker margins) - but if it had been possible, I would have been tempted by Star Max.
Joseph O’Brien has a very strong hand of juvenile hurdlers and this one had been progressing nicely, prior to his most recent run in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He was quite well fancied for that race - sent off 8/1 second favourite, behind his stablemate Band of Outlaws - but he ran disappointingly and never really featured.
You have to be prepared to forgive him that run - but it often pays to forgive a horse one bad run.
Certainly, based on his 3 previous runs over hurdles, he has a decent chance in this - and the fact he is trained by Joseph O’Brien, is a definite bonus.
In truth, this isn’t a race where it’s easy to get a handle on all of the runners.
Maze Runner is an understandable favourite, having finished second to Band of Outlaws on his most recent outing.
There’s a chance that run flatters him - but trained by Willie Mullins, he was never going to be much of a price.
Plenty of the others are tricky to assess - so it’s not a race where you could be overly confident.
That said, Star Max looks to have a better chance than most - and at around 8/1, doesn’t look a bad bet…
4:05
I think it is worth taking a chance on Robin de Foret in this.
He’s the apparent second string of Willie Mullins - and has to give weight to all of his rivals - but I still think he is worth siding with.
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - and on his preferred decent ground, I think that will unlock improvement.
He’s already the highest rated horse in the race, on official ratings - so if he is able to raise his game, then he will definitely take a bit of beating.
Certainly his hurdles form suggests that todays test is precisely what he needs.
He has won on heavy ground - but his best form is on a quick surface; similarly, he’s won over 2 miles - but has better form over further.
He disappointed on his most recent start, after a winter break - but he was hampered early in that race, so the run can be ignored.
His 2 previous runs in the autumn, were both very good: when runner up to Le Richebourg and when falling at the third last behind Winter Escape.
Based on those 2 runs, he is definitely the one to beat in todays race…
Obviously, the fact that he has apparently been over-looked by Ruby Walsh, in favour of stablemate Burrows Saint, is a concern.
However that one looks to need some cut in the ground - so today conditions could be an issue for him. He’s also unproven over todays trip - and therefore doesn’t hold much appeal at a price of 6/4.
Non of the others have form to match that of Robin des Forets - and they are all relatively exposed (so there is no reason to expect significant improvement).
In short, Robin des Foret represents a fair bet, at the available odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 3:55 Eddiemaurice 1pt win 8/1
Asc 4:30 Bigbadjohn 1pt win 6/1
Lim 4:05 Robin des Foret 1pt win 7/1 (pre R4)
Mentions
Asc 2:45 Honorable (S )
Asc 3:20 Favorito Bucks (P )
Lim 2:20 Star Max (C )
Review of the day
I kept the tips to a minimum today, which I think was
probably the right thing to do.
Unfortunately non of the 3 tips that I did issue, managed to win - but there was at least a bit of interest.
That was certainly the case for the first tip, Capard King.
I thought he represented a bit of value at this mornings 10/1 - but never did I imagine that he would get backed in to 7/2 favouritism !
As I said this morning, it was a competitive race - so there must have been some serious confidence behind him, to cause such a price move.
It was therefore a little disappointing that he unseated his rider, not long after half way.
It was too far out to have a view on whether he would have won - but he certainly wasn’t beaten.
Next time might tell us more - not that it will be much consolation !
The days other 2 tips both ran in the mares final at Newbury - and both ran with credit.
Off the Hook ran particularly well - and between the second and third last, it briefly looked as though she might win.
However, her run then began to falter - whilst Annie Mc found over-drive - and the race was quickly over…
As for the days Mentions…
In the opener at Newbury, my fears concerning Strong Pursuit appeared to be well-founded. He led early but was quickly beaten, once passed.
It did very much look as if he ‘bounced’ on the back of his big effort last time.
In the following race, Elysees ran a fair race to finish fourth, with Friend or Foe, appearing not to stay the trip.
Saint Leo also ran a fair race at Kelso - but conditions had gone against him.
He remains one to keep on side - given soft ground and a return to fences.
Finally, if one did get away today, it was in the long distance handicap hurdle.
I liked Captain Drake best - but felt he represented no value at 9/2.
I viewed Burrows Park as the main danger - and if I’d realised how quick the ground was going to be riding, I may well have taken a risk on him (because of Captain Drakes preference for soft ground).
Ultimately, Burrows Park ran out a very easy winner - with Captain Drake staying on late to claim second.
All a little irritating - but these things happens…
TVB.
Unfortunately non of the 3 tips that I did issue, managed to win - but there was at least a bit of interest.
That was certainly the case for the first tip, Capard King.
I thought he represented a bit of value at this mornings 10/1 - but never did I imagine that he would get backed in to 7/2 favouritism !
As I said this morning, it was a competitive race - so there must have been some serious confidence behind him, to cause such a price move.
It was therefore a little disappointing that he unseated his rider, not long after half way.
It was too far out to have a view on whether he would have won - but he certainly wasn’t beaten.
Next time might tell us more - not that it will be much consolation !
The days other 2 tips both ran in the mares final at Newbury - and both ran with credit.
Off the Hook ran particularly well - and between the second and third last, it briefly looked as though she might win.
However, her run then began to falter - whilst Annie Mc found over-drive - and the race was quickly over…
As for the days Mentions…
In the opener at Newbury, my fears concerning Strong Pursuit appeared to be well-founded. He led early but was quickly beaten, once passed.
It did very much look as if he ‘bounced’ on the back of his big effort last time.
In the following race, Elysees ran a fair race to finish fourth, with Friend or Foe, appearing not to stay the trip.
Saint Leo also ran a fair race at Kelso - but conditions had gone against him.
He remains one to keep on side - given soft ground and a return to fences.
Finally, if one did get away today, it was in the long distance handicap hurdle.
I liked Captain Drake best - but felt he represented no value at 9/2.
I viewed Burrows Park as the main danger - and if I’d realised how quick the ground was going to be riding, I may well have taken a risk on him (because of Captain Drakes preference for soft ground).
Ultimately, Burrows Park ran out a very easy winner - with Captain Drake staying on late to claim second.
All a little irritating - but these things happens…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Mar 23rd
There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Kelso and Bangor
in the UK - plus Thurles in Ireland.
It’s a low key day, for a Saturday - and there aren’t too many races, in which I could consider tipping.
However, most of the possible races, have drawn reasonable sized fields and are quite competitive - so finding tips was at least feasible.
That said, it tends to be a good idea to tread carefully at this time of year…
Ordinarily, the ground is on the turn, with the better weather resulting in quicker conditions - though that’s not really the case this season, as the ground hasn’t ever gone that soft !
The other potential issue is that a few of the horses will be going over the top, after long seasons.
It’s never easy to judge in advance, when a horse has had enough - but it is something I’m always mindful of…
Anyway, I’ve ended up with just 3 small tips on the day.
I did consider a few others - but ultimately, I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to tip them.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips that I did opt for - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Newbury
2:05
I like Strong Pursuit best in this - but I don’t like his price !
In fairness, I can understand it: he ran really well at Sandown in February, on his return from a long absence.
If he can build on that, he must go very close today - however, there must also be a chance he’ll ‘bounce’ and I’m not sure that is fully factored in to his price (3/1).
Furthermore, based purely on that run, he has little in hand on Salmanazar.
That one finished just behind him at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today.
Strong Pursuit has the greater potential - but I’m not sure it warrants him being a third of the price…
In truth, this looks quite a trappy event.
I’m not overly keen on the claims of second and third favourites; Classic Ben and Joe Farrel - but there are a few of the outsiders, who have the latent ability to go very close…
Luckofthedraw, Rock my Style and Kansas City Chief, are all capable of big runs - though non of the 3 are guaranteed to run their race.
All are worth monitoring in the betting however, in case they come in for sustained support.
With them lurking however, it’s not a race that could be approached with confidence.
That would make it hard to support Strong Pursuit at a short price - even ignoring the concerns with him.
If he drifted to 5/1+, then he would become interesting - but at the current prices, it’s a watching race….
2:40
There is far too much guesswork required to consider getting involved with this particular contest…
Friend or Foe is a short priced favourite, on the back of an impressive UK debut win at Taunton.
Apparently, Paul Nicholls fancied him for the Fred Winter hurdle at Cheltenham, believing the horse to be well handicapped.
If he was capable of going close in that contest - then he will probably win today.
However, odds of 5/2 in a 14 runner handicap, with plenty of unexposed horses in opposition, holds no appeal…
Second favourite, Elysees, is also interesting.
He has demonstrated a good level of form over hurdles - and has apparently been targeted at this race.
He is more exposed than many of the runners - but his second to Quel Destin at Doncaster in December, is the best form in the race.
He should go close - and 6/1 is a fair price….
Outside of the 2 market leaders, then Legal History makes most appeal - but he too has been quite well found in the market.
3:15
This is another open looking handicap - but I think it is worth getting involved with a couple of the lesser fancied runners…
Unlike the previous race, there are no stand out contenders and Millarville and Off the Hook, both strike me as very interesting.
The former makes her handicap debut, having performed well on her 2 most recent runs in novice company: winning on the first occasion - and then finishing third.
She is stepped up in trip today - and as a PTP winner over 3 miles, that looks a move which is almost certain to bring about improvement.
Richard Johnson is a significant jockey booking - and it looks as if she has been targeted at this race…
I suspect that Off the Hook has also been targeted at the race.
She is only the second ever runner at Newbury, for Nick Alexander (his first ran yesterday).
Her form is strong: She finished third to Queenofhearts in a listed race at Haydock, on her penultimate outing - with Papagarna was just behind in fourth (she subsequently won at Doncaster).
She then followed that up by taking a maiden event at Ayr from Sam’s Adventure - and that one also won on his next outing.
Off the Hook looks fairly handicapped on those pieces of form - and she should be well suited by todays test. Plenty of the others can be given a chance - with Etamine du Cochet looking the most dangerous of them. However, there is enough guesswork required with her, to swerve at a best price of 8/1.
Kelso
2:25
I was quite tempted to take a risk on Saint Leo in this…
He was a 2pt tip the last time he ran - and he looked likely to win, until falling.
That was over fences - and he runs over hurdles this afternoon.
In truth, that move could be read in a number of ways (possibly a confidence rebuilding exercise) - however the fact that James Reveley comes over from France to ride him, suggests there is positive intent.
He’s got winning hurdles form in his native France - and I think he is well handicapped - so he really is quite tempting …
However, there are a couple of issues: firstly the ground at Kelso, is likely to be a bit quicker than ideal for him; and secondly he faces at least 4 dangerous looking opponents.
With the guesswork and uncertainty, my feeling is that a price of 6/1, is about right.
He can be backed at 7/1 in a few places - and I wouldn’t put off anyone from getting involved with that.
Officially, though he is just going to be a Mention.
3:00
Capard King looks interesting in this, on his second run for Sandy Thompson.
Formerly trained by Jonjo O’Neil, he made his debut for Thompson at Ayr a fortnight ago and travelled very powerfully through the race, but didn’t quite see it out.
That was his first run for 2 months - and I’m sure he will strip much fitter today.
There can be little doubt that Capard King is a potentially well handicapped horse.
Despite being 2lb out of the handicap this afternoon, he runs from a mark of 120 - which is 19lb below his career high (and 15lb below his last winning mark).
As a 10 year old, there is a chance that he’s not quite as good as he once was: however, there is also the chance that the move to Sandy Thompson will have rekindled his flame.
In theory, he faces some tough opponents this afternoon.
However, favourite, Some Chaos has been raised 11lb for his last time out win: whilst Blue Flight is up 14lb for his defeat of Black Corton in a conditons event.
There must be a possibility that both of them have been harshly dealt with by the handicapper…
In fairness, neither Rons Dream nor Le Reve can be easily dismissed - so it’s not a race to be going over-board on.
That said, Capard King has a fair chance on recent form - and a very good chance on old form - so is worthy of a small interest.
3:35
I did consider getting involved with Captain Drake in this - but I think he’s a bit too short in the betting at 9/2…
With Worthy Farm at 3/1 - and a few credible opponents, I hoped that 6/1 might be obtainable - but that’s not the case.
In terms of the case for him: then it revolves around his defeat of subsequent winner, Liosduin Bhearna, in a novice event at Uttoxeter: and his subsequent win on handicap debut at Southwell.
The bare form of his most recent win, is nothing to get excited about. In fact, he has nothing in hand of Tomkevi, based purely on that run.
However, I get the feeling that he’s a horse with plenty of improvement in him - and I suspect he will relish todays step up in trip to 3m2f.
Certainly, I would take a risk on him at a price - but that price would need to be bigger than 9/2…
In truth, plenty of his opponents can be given a chance (which is another reason for wanting a price) - with Burrows Park, the one that interests me most.
I don’t particularly like the fact he ran at Cheltenham just 8 days ago - bit he did run well and if anyone can get them back performing after a tough race, it is Venetia.
He could be worth a small risk at 9/1 - but it’s hard to tip one horse when you fancy another one more !
On balance, I felt it best to make it a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 3:15 Milarville 0.5pt win 12/1
Newb 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 14/1
Kels 3:00 Capard King 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Newb 2:05 Strong Pursuit (P )
Newb 2:40 Elysees (O )
Kels 2:25 Saint Leo (O )
Kels 3:35 Captain Drake (P )
It’s a low key day, for a Saturday - and there aren’t too many races, in which I could consider tipping.
However, most of the possible races, have drawn reasonable sized fields and are quite competitive - so finding tips was at least feasible.
That said, it tends to be a good idea to tread carefully at this time of year…
Ordinarily, the ground is on the turn, with the better weather resulting in quicker conditions - though that’s not really the case this season, as the ground hasn’t ever gone that soft !
The other potential issue is that a few of the horses will be going over the top, after long seasons.
It’s never easy to judge in advance, when a horse has had enough - but it is something I’m always mindful of…
Anyway, I’ve ended up with just 3 small tips on the day.
I did consider a few others - but ultimately, I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to tip them.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips that I did opt for - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Newbury
2:05
I like Strong Pursuit best in this - but I don’t like his price !
In fairness, I can understand it: he ran really well at Sandown in February, on his return from a long absence.
If he can build on that, he must go very close today - however, there must also be a chance he’ll ‘bounce’ and I’m not sure that is fully factored in to his price (3/1).
Furthermore, based purely on that run, he has little in hand on Salmanazar.
That one finished just behind him at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today.
Strong Pursuit has the greater potential - but I’m not sure it warrants him being a third of the price…
In truth, this looks quite a trappy event.
I’m not overly keen on the claims of second and third favourites; Classic Ben and Joe Farrel - but there are a few of the outsiders, who have the latent ability to go very close…
Luckofthedraw, Rock my Style and Kansas City Chief, are all capable of big runs - though non of the 3 are guaranteed to run their race.
All are worth monitoring in the betting however, in case they come in for sustained support.
With them lurking however, it’s not a race that could be approached with confidence.
That would make it hard to support Strong Pursuit at a short price - even ignoring the concerns with him.
If he drifted to 5/1+, then he would become interesting - but at the current prices, it’s a watching race….
2:40
There is far too much guesswork required to consider getting involved with this particular contest…
Friend or Foe is a short priced favourite, on the back of an impressive UK debut win at Taunton.
Apparently, Paul Nicholls fancied him for the Fred Winter hurdle at Cheltenham, believing the horse to be well handicapped.
If he was capable of going close in that contest - then he will probably win today.
However, odds of 5/2 in a 14 runner handicap, with plenty of unexposed horses in opposition, holds no appeal…
Second favourite, Elysees, is also interesting.
He has demonstrated a good level of form over hurdles - and has apparently been targeted at this race.
He is more exposed than many of the runners - but his second to Quel Destin at Doncaster in December, is the best form in the race.
He should go close - and 6/1 is a fair price….
Outside of the 2 market leaders, then Legal History makes most appeal - but he too has been quite well found in the market.
3:15
This is another open looking handicap - but I think it is worth getting involved with a couple of the lesser fancied runners…
Unlike the previous race, there are no stand out contenders and Millarville and Off the Hook, both strike me as very interesting.
The former makes her handicap debut, having performed well on her 2 most recent runs in novice company: winning on the first occasion - and then finishing third.
She is stepped up in trip today - and as a PTP winner over 3 miles, that looks a move which is almost certain to bring about improvement.
Richard Johnson is a significant jockey booking - and it looks as if she has been targeted at this race…
I suspect that Off the Hook has also been targeted at the race.
She is only the second ever runner at Newbury, for Nick Alexander (his first ran yesterday).
Her form is strong: She finished third to Queenofhearts in a listed race at Haydock, on her penultimate outing - with Papagarna was just behind in fourth (she subsequently won at Doncaster).
She then followed that up by taking a maiden event at Ayr from Sam’s Adventure - and that one also won on his next outing.
Off the Hook looks fairly handicapped on those pieces of form - and she should be well suited by todays test. Plenty of the others can be given a chance - with Etamine du Cochet looking the most dangerous of them. However, there is enough guesswork required with her, to swerve at a best price of 8/1.
Kelso
2:25
I was quite tempted to take a risk on Saint Leo in this…
He was a 2pt tip the last time he ran - and he looked likely to win, until falling.
That was over fences - and he runs over hurdles this afternoon.
In truth, that move could be read in a number of ways (possibly a confidence rebuilding exercise) - however the fact that James Reveley comes over from France to ride him, suggests there is positive intent.
He’s got winning hurdles form in his native France - and I think he is well handicapped - so he really is quite tempting …
However, there are a couple of issues: firstly the ground at Kelso, is likely to be a bit quicker than ideal for him; and secondly he faces at least 4 dangerous looking opponents.
With the guesswork and uncertainty, my feeling is that a price of 6/1, is about right.
He can be backed at 7/1 in a few places - and I wouldn’t put off anyone from getting involved with that.
Officially, though he is just going to be a Mention.
3:00
Capard King looks interesting in this, on his second run for Sandy Thompson.
Formerly trained by Jonjo O’Neil, he made his debut for Thompson at Ayr a fortnight ago and travelled very powerfully through the race, but didn’t quite see it out.
That was his first run for 2 months - and I’m sure he will strip much fitter today.
There can be little doubt that Capard King is a potentially well handicapped horse.
Despite being 2lb out of the handicap this afternoon, he runs from a mark of 120 - which is 19lb below his career high (and 15lb below his last winning mark).
As a 10 year old, there is a chance that he’s not quite as good as he once was: however, there is also the chance that the move to Sandy Thompson will have rekindled his flame.
In theory, he faces some tough opponents this afternoon.
However, favourite, Some Chaos has been raised 11lb for his last time out win: whilst Blue Flight is up 14lb for his defeat of Black Corton in a conditons event.
There must be a possibility that both of them have been harshly dealt with by the handicapper…
In fairness, neither Rons Dream nor Le Reve can be easily dismissed - so it’s not a race to be going over-board on.
That said, Capard King has a fair chance on recent form - and a very good chance on old form - so is worthy of a small interest.
3:35
I did consider getting involved with Captain Drake in this - but I think he’s a bit too short in the betting at 9/2…
With Worthy Farm at 3/1 - and a few credible opponents, I hoped that 6/1 might be obtainable - but that’s not the case.
In terms of the case for him: then it revolves around his defeat of subsequent winner, Liosduin Bhearna, in a novice event at Uttoxeter: and his subsequent win on handicap debut at Southwell.
The bare form of his most recent win, is nothing to get excited about. In fact, he has nothing in hand of Tomkevi, based purely on that run.
However, I get the feeling that he’s a horse with plenty of improvement in him - and I suspect he will relish todays step up in trip to 3m2f.
Certainly, I would take a risk on him at a price - but that price would need to be bigger than 9/2…
In truth, plenty of his opponents can be given a chance (which is another reason for wanting a price) - with Burrows Park, the one that interests me most.
I don’t particularly like the fact he ran at Cheltenham just 8 days ago - bit he did run well and if anyone can get them back performing after a tough race, it is Venetia.
He could be worth a small risk at 9/1 - but it’s hard to tip one horse when you fancy another one more !
On balance, I felt it best to make it a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 3:15 Milarville 0.5pt win 12/1
Newb 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 14/1
Kels 3:00 Capard King 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Newb 2:05 Strong Pursuit (P )
Newb 2:40 Elysees (O )
Kels 2:25 Saint Leo (O )
Kels 3:35 Captain Drake (P )
Monday 18 March 2019
Review of the day
There was no joy with todays tips - and not a great deal to say about them either !
The most notable thing, was that come the off, all 3 had drifted out (on BF) to roughly their prices of last night (which was about 50% higher than this mornings advised prices).
I guess it could have been market corrections (and I could maybe believe that for Back to the Thatch) - but generally, that tends not to be a good thing…
Certainly, it didn’t see to be a good thing for Tara Flow.
I was pretty keen on her - but the market drift - coupled with an apparent reticence to get involved with the race - suggested from a very early stage, that she wasn't going to be involved at the finish.
She never moved out of the last couple of places - and you could only guess, at what the issue was…
The race was won by De Rasher Counter - but he was never really a price where I could have considered him as a saver…
Next it was Forecast.
Again, I thought he had a chance (certainly, more of a chance than his odds implied) - and whilst he moved nicely through the race to the home turn, he was quickly beaten once pressure was applied.
The race was won in impressive fashion, by Poker Play - but his victory wasn’t easy to predict.
The novices, Bold Plan and Acey Milan, followed him home (which was a little more predicable).
Back to the Thatch was the final tip on the day - and he put up a fair effort.
He took up the running, with a circuit to go - and still appeared to have a chance, turning for home.
However, 4m2f in heavy ground, takes some getting - and he tired quickly up the straight.
He took a heavy fall at the final fence - but thankfully, got back up (eventually !).
The race was won by Potters Corner, who was another tough one to find (particularly considering he had fallen on his 2 most recent runs).
He just got the better of Ms Parfois, who I had tipped ante-post for the Welsh National - but didn’t make the race.
I have to admit that I was slightly relieved that she didn’t win today, as it would have left me wondering what might have been….
As for the Mentions at Kempton:
Then Eddiemaurice got no further than the first fence.
To be honest, I don’t think the race was run in a way that would have suited him - but it would have been nice to see for sure !
Honest Vic also didn’t make it round - as he ploughed through the wings of the second last, in spectacular style !
He had hinted at a touch of temperament in the past - but had never done anything quite so dramatic !
His departure appeared to leave the way open for My Way - but he was run out of things close home, by Wicked Willy.
All in all, a day best forgotten…
TVB.
The most notable thing, was that come the off, all 3 had drifted out (on BF) to roughly their prices of last night (which was about 50% higher than this mornings advised prices).
I guess it could have been market corrections (and I could maybe believe that for Back to the Thatch) - but generally, that tends not to be a good thing…
Certainly, it didn’t see to be a good thing for Tara Flow.
I was pretty keen on her - but the market drift - coupled with an apparent reticence to get involved with the race - suggested from a very early stage, that she wasn't going to be involved at the finish.
She never moved out of the last couple of places - and you could only guess, at what the issue was…
The race was won by De Rasher Counter - but he was never really a price where I could have considered him as a saver…
Next it was Forecast.
Again, I thought he had a chance (certainly, more of a chance than his odds implied) - and whilst he moved nicely through the race to the home turn, he was quickly beaten once pressure was applied.
The race was won in impressive fashion, by Poker Play - but his victory wasn’t easy to predict.
The novices, Bold Plan and Acey Milan, followed him home (which was a little more predicable).
Back to the Thatch was the final tip on the day - and he put up a fair effort.
He took up the running, with a circuit to go - and still appeared to have a chance, turning for home.
However, 4m2f in heavy ground, takes some getting - and he tired quickly up the straight.
He took a heavy fall at the final fence - but thankfully, got back up (eventually !).
The race was won by Potters Corner, who was another tough one to find (particularly considering he had fallen on his 2 most recent runs).
He just got the better of Ms Parfois, who I had tipped ante-post for the Welsh National - but didn’t make the race.
I have to admit that I was slightly relieved that she didn’t win today, as it would have left me wondering what might have been….
As for the Mentions at Kempton:
Then Eddiemaurice got no further than the first fence.
To be honest, I don’t think the race was run in a way that would have suited him - but it would have been nice to see for sure !
Honest Vic also didn’t make it round - as he ploughed through the wings of the second last, in spectacular style !
He had hinted at a touch of temperament in the past - but had never done anything quite so dramatic !
His departure appeared to leave the way open for My Way - but he was run out of things close home, by Wicked Willy.
All in all, a day best forgotten…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Mar 16th
There are no less than 6 NH meetings today: at Uttoxeter,
Kempton, Newcastle, Fontwell, Limerick and Down Royal.
And I expected things to be quiet, after Cheltenham !
In fairness, most of the meetings are low key, with only Uttoxeter and Kempton staging races which could be described as ‘big’.
In truth, even the Kempton card is a little disappointing.
It puts on a couple of ‘consolation‘ races for horses that missed out on running at Cheltenham.
The meeting appeared set to take off, a couple of seasons back - but the fields for todays 2 feature races, aren’t great…
As a consequence, I’ve had to go to Uttoxeter for the tips.
I’ve managed to find 3 of them there - and I was quite happy with them, yesterday evening.
However, the prices were eroded overnight - and the margins aren’t quite as big this morning !
I still think they are worth backing - and who knows, there’s always the chance that the prices will drift back out a little, come to off…
Anyway, here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the big races which are taking place today…
Uttoxeter
2:25
I quite like Tara Flow in this…
I was very taken by her effort, last time out at Ffos Las, when she finished second to Molly Carew.
The winner appeared to be a very well handicapped horse, so Tara Flow probably lost little in defeat.
In fact, I’m a bit surprised that Tara Flows mark remained unchanged following the run, as Molly Carew was raised by 10lb (accepting that she did win by 10 lengths).
Having won over hurdles on heavy (when she defeated the very useful, The Organist), todays under-foot conditions, will hold no fear for Tara Flow.
She is unproven over todays trip - but there is no reason to think she won’t be able to cope with it - and there’s even a chance she will improve for the step up !
Venetia has been in very good form, for a number of weeks. She didn’t manage to get a winner at Cheltenham, but even there, most of her horses ran well (most notable, Aso).
Tara Flow is her only runner today - and Charlie Deutch's only ride.
Hopefully they can make it count !
Top weight, De Rasher Counter, looks like the main danger.
He’s been in good form lately - and still remains fairly handicapped.
However, lugging 11st12lb round in heavy ground, won’t be easy for him…
3:00
I think it is worth taking a risk on Forecast in this.
He caught my eye on his most recent run, at Cheltenham, on New Years day.
I tipped Aux Ptit Soins in that race, but was very aware of how well Forecast was travelling, coming down the hill.
Ultimately, Aux Ptit Soins kicked away in the home straight - but that may in part have been because Forecast didn’t stay the 3 mile trip.
Certainly his best form is over todays trip of 2m4f - including a third place behind Paisley Park, at Aintree in October; and a win over Notre Ami in the heavy at Lingfield, the following month.
All of those runs, give him a decent chance this afternoon…
The market for todays race, is headed by a couple of unexposed horses, in the shape of Acey Milan and Bold Plan.
Both are making their handicaps debuts - and could certainly better than their opening marks.
If they are, then they could prove too good for Fortune - but I think that’s a risk worth taking…
Certainly, I think he has as good a chance as any of the more exposed horses - particularly as he is proven under todays conditions.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Back to the Thatch in this.
He was quite well fancied for the corresponding race, 12 months ago (sent off at 15/2), but ran disappointingly and was pulled up.
However, he arrived that day, on the back over a heavy fall in the Eider chase - and there must be a chance that affected his performance…
He didn’t run again last season, but following a low key seasonal debut at Bangor, he ran well in the Welsh National trial at Chepstow.
That suggested he was back in his groove - and as a consequence, he was sent off at just 2/1 for a decent handicap chase at Haydock, at the end of the year.
He ran really well in that race, but just couldn’t managed to concede 8lb to the rejuvenated, Chef D’ouvre.
I don’t think that was any shame in that, as the winner subsequently went on to run a massive race behind Robinsfirth, at the same course.
As a consequence, Chef D’ouvre has to re-oppose Back to the Thatch on 9lb worse terms today for 3 lengths, and that should see the form reversed…
I also like the fact that Back to the Thatch hasn’t run since then.
He was again being targeted at the Eider - but connections gave that race a miss, owing to the quick ground.
Quick ground won’t be a problem today ! - and with Dickie in the saddle, I expect him to go very close indeed…
I was hoping to put up Milansbar as a saver - because I think he is potentially very dangerous.
However, he was tipped up in a host of places, last night - and a price of 8/1 this morning, is too short about a 12 year old in a 22 runner race.
I suspect he will drift (because he has been over-backed) - and if you can get double figures on him, then he is worth a small saver.
Officially speaking however, all of the eggs are in the Back to the Thatch basket !
Kempton
2:05
I’m moderately tempted to take a risk on Eddiemaurice in this.
He should arguably have won last time out - and Kempton is very much his track (he prefers the quick ground, which Kempton tends to produce).
The issue is, he’s a ‘traveller’ rather than a ‘finisher’ - and he would almost certainly be better suited by a bigger field (so he could be smuggled in to the race and delivered late).
That said, favourite, Timoteo, does look vulnerable…
He was most impressive when wining on his chasing debut at Stratford on Monday - but that was just 5 days ago - so there is a definite risk as to whether he will have fully recovered.
The only other runner worthy of consideration, appears to be Envoye Special - and he’s a hard one to get a handle on.
He’s only run twice in the UK - but has shown promise on both occasions.
He looks as if he could be one for next season - though if he’s strong in the market today, then I would maybe take the hint !
2:40
If you could be sure that Honest Vic would run to the same level of form he showed on his most recent outing, he would be a good bet in this.
Last time out, he finished runner up at Ascot, splitting Brio Conte and Ballyandy - with Malaya just behind in fourth place.
The first 2 named, finished third and fourth in Wednesday Coral cup; whilst Malaya subsequently won the Imperial cup.
To say the form is rock solid, is an under-statement !
However, Honest Vic showed big improvement that day - and it coincided with the fitting of a first time visor.
The visor is retained today - but whether it will have the same impact, is anybodys guess…
Certainly, if you look at Honest Vics form, aside from his last run, then it’s hard to make a case for him…
If he doesn’t perform to the Ascot level of form, then My Way looks the one most likely to take advantage, on his handicap debut.
He’s clearly well thought of (he made his UK debut in a grade 2 event) - and an opening mark of 121, looks very workable…
3:15
This race looks a complete minefield - and is definitely one best swerved from a betting perspective.
The biggest issue is the presence of Onefortheroadtom.
He’s been running eye catchingly in some much better races - whilst ultimately getting beaten a long way.
The feeling is that connections are working on his handicap mark - and the official assessor is certainly playing ball, as his mark has come down from 137 to 122.
However, we can only guess that’s the case - which makes supporting him at short odds, an impossible thing to do.
He could easily bolt in this afternoon - or he could just as easily finish out the back…
Even ignoring him this is not any easy race to asses.
Brother Ted is potentially well handicapped - and back at his favourite course - but he’s only run once in the past 2 years, so clearly comes with risks.
Kansas City Chief is another potentially dangerous one. He is dropping down the handicap and will doubtless come good at some point (I don’t think it will be today - but I couldn’t be totally sure).
Peacocks Secret is quite interesting, over from Ireland; whist El Terremento is probably the default winner, if non of the ‘plots’ are being timed for today !
In summary, it has to be a watching race - hopefully one which will reveal a few more clues on future intentions, for some of the runners !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Uttx 2:25 Tara Flow 1pt win 8/1
Uttx 3:00 Forecast 0.5pt win 16/1
Uttx 3:35 Back to the Thatch 1pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 2:05 Eddiemaurice (C )
Kemp 2:40 Honest Vic (C )
And I expected things to be quiet, after Cheltenham !
In fairness, most of the meetings are low key, with only Uttoxeter and Kempton staging races which could be described as ‘big’.
In truth, even the Kempton card is a little disappointing.
It puts on a couple of ‘consolation‘ races for horses that missed out on running at Cheltenham.
The meeting appeared set to take off, a couple of seasons back - but the fields for todays 2 feature races, aren’t great…
As a consequence, I’ve had to go to Uttoxeter for the tips.
I’ve managed to find 3 of them there - and I was quite happy with them, yesterday evening.
However, the prices were eroded overnight - and the margins aren’t quite as big this morning !
I still think they are worth backing - and who knows, there’s always the chance that the prices will drift back out a little, come to off…
Anyway, here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the big races which are taking place today…
Uttoxeter
2:25
I quite like Tara Flow in this…
I was very taken by her effort, last time out at Ffos Las, when she finished second to Molly Carew.
The winner appeared to be a very well handicapped horse, so Tara Flow probably lost little in defeat.
In fact, I’m a bit surprised that Tara Flows mark remained unchanged following the run, as Molly Carew was raised by 10lb (accepting that she did win by 10 lengths).
Having won over hurdles on heavy (when she defeated the very useful, The Organist), todays under-foot conditions, will hold no fear for Tara Flow.
She is unproven over todays trip - but there is no reason to think she won’t be able to cope with it - and there’s even a chance she will improve for the step up !
Venetia has been in very good form, for a number of weeks. She didn’t manage to get a winner at Cheltenham, but even there, most of her horses ran well (most notable, Aso).
Tara Flow is her only runner today - and Charlie Deutch's only ride.
Hopefully they can make it count !
Top weight, De Rasher Counter, looks like the main danger.
He’s been in good form lately - and still remains fairly handicapped.
However, lugging 11st12lb round in heavy ground, won’t be easy for him…
3:00
I think it is worth taking a risk on Forecast in this.
He caught my eye on his most recent run, at Cheltenham, on New Years day.
I tipped Aux Ptit Soins in that race, but was very aware of how well Forecast was travelling, coming down the hill.
Ultimately, Aux Ptit Soins kicked away in the home straight - but that may in part have been because Forecast didn’t stay the 3 mile trip.
Certainly his best form is over todays trip of 2m4f - including a third place behind Paisley Park, at Aintree in October; and a win over Notre Ami in the heavy at Lingfield, the following month.
All of those runs, give him a decent chance this afternoon…
The market for todays race, is headed by a couple of unexposed horses, in the shape of Acey Milan and Bold Plan.
Both are making their handicaps debuts - and could certainly better than their opening marks.
If they are, then they could prove too good for Fortune - but I think that’s a risk worth taking…
Certainly, I think he has as good a chance as any of the more exposed horses - particularly as he is proven under todays conditions.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Back to the Thatch in this.
He was quite well fancied for the corresponding race, 12 months ago (sent off at 15/2), but ran disappointingly and was pulled up.
However, he arrived that day, on the back over a heavy fall in the Eider chase - and there must be a chance that affected his performance…
He didn’t run again last season, but following a low key seasonal debut at Bangor, he ran well in the Welsh National trial at Chepstow.
That suggested he was back in his groove - and as a consequence, he was sent off at just 2/1 for a decent handicap chase at Haydock, at the end of the year.
He ran really well in that race, but just couldn’t managed to concede 8lb to the rejuvenated, Chef D’ouvre.
I don’t think that was any shame in that, as the winner subsequently went on to run a massive race behind Robinsfirth, at the same course.
As a consequence, Chef D’ouvre has to re-oppose Back to the Thatch on 9lb worse terms today for 3 lengths, and that should see the form reversed…
I also like the fact that Back to the Thatch hasn’t run since then.
He was again being targeted at the Eider - but connections gave that race a miss, owing to the quick ground.
Quick ground won’t be a problem today ! - and with Dickie in the saddle, I expect him to go very close indeed…
I was hoping to put up Milansbar as a saver - because I think he is potentially very dangerous.
However, he was tipped up in a host of places, last night - and a price of 8/1 this morning, is too short about a 12 year old in a 22 runner race.
I suspect he will drift (because he has been over-backed) - and if you can get double figures on him, then he is worth a small saver.
Officially speaking however, all of the eggs are in the Back to the Thatch basket !
Kempton
2:05
I’m moderately tempted to take a risk on Eddiemaurice in this.
He should arguably have won last time out - and Kempton is very much his track (he prefers the quick ground, which Kempton tends to produce).
The issue is, he’s a ‘traveller’ rather than a ‘finisher’ - and he would almost certainly be better suited by a bigger field (so he could be smuggled in to the race and delivered late).
That said, favourite, Timoteo, does look vulnerable…
He was most impressive when wining on his chasing debut at Stratford on Monday - but that was just 5 days ago - so there is a definite risk as to whether he will have fully recovered.
The only other runner worthy of consideration, appears to be Envoye Special - and he’s a hard one to get a handle on.
He’s only run twice in the UK - but has shown promise on both occasions.
He looks as if he could be one for next season - though if he’s strong in the market today, then I would maybe take the hint !
2:40
If you could be sure that Honest Vic would run to the same level of form he showed on his most recent outing, he would be a good bet in this.
Last time out, he finished runner up at Ascot, splitting Brio Conte and Ballyandy - with Malaya just behind in fourth place.
The first 2 named, finished third and fourth in Wednesday Coral cup; whilst Malaya subsequently won the Imperial cup.
To say the form is rock solid, is an under-statement !
However, Honest Vic showed big improvement that day - and it coincided with the fitting of a first time visor.
The visor is retained today - but whether it will have the same impact, is anybodys guess…
Certainly, if you look at Honest Vics form, aside from his last run, then it’s hard to make a case for him…
If he doesn’t perform to the Ascot level of form, then My Way looks the one most likely to take advantage, on his handicap debut.
He’s clearly well thought of (he made his UK debut in a grade 2 event) - and an opening mark of 121, looks very workable…
3:15
This race looks a complete minefield - and is definitely one best swerved from a betting perspective.
The biggest issue is the presence of Onefortheroadtom.
He’s been running eye catchingly in some much better races - whilst ultimately getting beaten a long way.
The feeling is that connections are working on his handicap mark - and the official assessor is certainly playing ball, as his mark has come down from 137 to 122.
However, we can only guess that’s the case - which makes supporting him at short odds, an impossible thing to do.
He could easily bolt in this afternoon - or he could just as easily finish out the back…
Even ignoring him this is not any easy race to asses.
Brother Ted is potentially well handicapped - and back at his favourite course - but he’s only run once in the past 2 years, so clearly comes with risks.
Kansas City Chief is another potentially dangerous one. He is dropping down the handicap and will doubtless come good at some point (I don’t think it will be today - but I couldn’t be totally sure).
Peacocks Secret is quite interesting, over from Ireland; whist El Terremento is probably the default winner, if non of the ‘plots’ are being timed for today !
In summary, it has to be a watching race - hopefully one which will reveal a few more clues on future intentions, for some of the runners !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Uttx 2:25 Tara Flow 1pt win 8/1
Uttx 3:00 Forecast 0.5pt win 16/1
Uttx 3:35 Back to the Thatch 1pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 2:05 Eddiemaurice (C )
Kemp 2:40 Honest Vic (C )
Review of the day
Victory for Early Doors in the final race, meant that the day
finished almost level - and ensured that Cheltenham week wasn’t a complete
disaster…
Objectively, the damage was done yesterday: but a better jump from Road to Respect at the third last - or a stumble from Paisley Park at the last, and things would have been very different.
They are fines lines…
And that was the case again today, when in addition to Early Doors, both Eclair du Beaufeur and Shantou Flyer, could easily have come home in front - granted a bit of luck.
That said, there were plenty of other runners who could claim the same - such is the nature of the Cheltenham festival…
In terms of specifics, then the day got off to the worse possible start, when Sir Erec broke his leg in the opener.
It’s always a horrible thing to see - even accepting that it comes with the territory…
The race was won Pentland Hills, who was having just his second run over hurdles.
Whether he would have won, if fate hadn’t snarled at Sir Erec, is anyones guess - though in fairness, he did look a worthy winner of the race.
Eclair de Beaufeur and Mr Adjudicator, were the first tips to run on the day: and whilst the latter never really featured, the former could arguably have won.
Certainly the in-running bettors believed that to be the case, as he went odds on, when shooting clear off the home turn.
However Jack Kennedy had mis-timed his effort - and the horse was already beaten, when it ejected him at the last.
It was disappointing - but every jockey makes the occasional mistake, and generally Kennedy is one of the best around.
Next it was the Albert Bartlett hurdle - and I felt it was a race in which there might be a shock.
And I was right, as 50/1 shot (BSP 140 !), Minella Indo, was an impressive winner.
If I’m honest, he’s not one I would have picked, even given a few stabs at the race - so maybe it was a bullet dodged…
I could have picked Al Boum Photo, given a few shots at the Gold Cup.
I was just put off by his run behind Presenting Percy in last years RSA - but he completely reversed the form this afternoon.
Shattered Love ran a big race, but was never quite close enough - and possibly didn’t quite get home.
She had been narrowly beaten by Al Boum Photo last year, and I suspect she will be capable of winning a grade 1 chase herself, given the right conditions….
Next it was the Foxhunters - and possibly the most disappointing result of the week !
I thought I had found one, when I picked up on Shantou Flyer a few weeks back - and he went very close to proving me right.
However, like Sam Spinner yesterday, there was one just a bit too good for him on the day.
He wasn’t unlucky, so I can have no real complaints - but it would have been very nice, if he could have run just that little bit faster !
The penultimate race of the day was the Grand Annual - and that proved disappointing…
I felt I had put us in a good position with Magic Saint and Le Prezein - and I was still feeling that way, turning in.
Both horses looked to be going strongly - but then, in just a few strides, both were beaten !
It was odd to watch - and if the Nicholls horses hadn't been running so well all week, you might have thought something was ailing them…
The race was won in spectacular style by the 12 year old, Croco Bay.
He did have previous in the race - but had only run once in the past 12 months - and hadn’t been out since last summer.
His SP of 66/1 seemed a little tight, with his BSP of 180, looking far nearer the mark !
A virtually impossible one to pick, I think…
And so to the final race.
I felt this morning, that despite the numbers, it was likely to boil down to a match between Early Doors and Dallas de Pictons - and that's exactly what happened.
Even after the last, it was difficult to figure out which one was going to come out on top.
But thankfully, after a few near misses, Early Doors got the better of their dual - and rescued the day.
In the circumstance, I feel it was the least we deserved….
And so endeth another festival.
As a spectacle is was breathtaking - as a punting medium, I found it very hard…
I need to take stock of how I handle things.
I’ve got an approach which works well, week in, week out, throughout the rest of the season - but I’m not convinced it works for Cheltenham.
I think I’ll need to change things a little next season - so I’ll be giving some thought to exactly what and how.
That can all wait though - I now need to start studying for Uttoxeter and Kempton tomorrow.
There really is no rest for the wicked :)
TVB.
Objectively, the damage was done yesterday: but a better jump from Road to Respect at the third last - or a stumble from Paisley Park at the last, and things would have been very different.
They are fines lines…
And that was the case again today, when in addition to Early Doors, both Eclair du Beaufeur and Shantou Flyer, could easily have come home in front - granted a bit of luck.
That said, there were plenty of other runners who could claim the same - such is the nature of the Cheltenham festival…
In terms of specifics, then the day got off to the worse possible start, when Sir Erec broke his leg in the opener.
It’s always a horrible thing to see - even accepting that it comes with the territory…
The race was won Pentland Hills, who was having just his second run over hurdles.
Whether he would have won, if fate hadn’t snarled at Sir Erec, is anyones guess - though in fairness, he did look a worthy winner of the race.
Eclair de Beaufeur and Mr Adjudicator, were the first tips to run on the day: and whilst the latter never really featured, the former could arguably have won.
Certainly the in-running bettors believed that to be the case, as he went odds on, when shooting clear off the home turn.
However Jack Kennedy had mis-timed his effort - and the horse was already beaten, when it ejected him at the last.
It was disappointing - but every jockey makes the occasional mistake, and generally Kennedy is one of the best around.
Next it was the Albert Bartlett hurdle - and I felt it was a race in which there might be a shock.
And I was right, as 50/1 shot (BSP 140 !), Minella Indo, was an impressive winner.
If I’m honest, he’s not one I would have picked, even given a few stabs at the race - so maybe it was a bullet dodged…
I could have picked Al Boum Photo, given a few shots at the Gold Cup.
I was just put off by his run behind Presenting Percy in last years RSA - but he completely reversed the form this afternoon.
Shattered Love ran a big race, but was never quite close enough - and possibly didn’t quite get home.
She had been narrowly beaten by Al Boum Photo last year, and I suspect she will be capable of winning a grade 1 chase herself, given the right conditions….
Next it was the Foxhunters - and possibly the most disappointing result of the week !
I thought I had found one, when I picked up on Shantou Flyer a few weeks back - and he went very close to proving me right.
However, like Sam Spinner yesterday, there was one just a bit too good for him on the day.
He wasn’t unlucky, so I can have no real complaints - but it would have been very nice, if he could have run just that little bit faster !
The penultimate race of the day was the Grand Annual - and that proved disappointing…
I felt I had put us in a good position with Magic Saint and Le Prezein - and I was still feeling that way, turning in.
Both horses looked to be going strongly - but then, in just a few strides, both were beaten !
It was odd to watch - and if the Nicholls horses hadn't been running so well all week, you might have thought something was ailing them…
The race was won in spectacular style by the 12 year old, Croco Bay.
He did have previous in the race - but had only run once in the past 12 months - and hadn’t been out since last summer.
His SP of 66/1 seemed a little tight, with his BSP of 180, looking far nearer the mark !
A virtually impossible one to pick, I think…
And so to the final race.
I felt this morning, that despite the numbers, it was likely to boil down to a match between Early Doors and Dallas de Pictons - and that's exactly what happened.
Even after the last, it was difficult to figure out which one was going to come out on top.
But thankfully, after a few near misses, Early Doors got the better of their dual - and rescued the day.
In the circumstance, I feel it was the least we deserved….
And so endeth another festival.
As a spectacle is was breathtaking - as a punting medium, I found it very hard…
I need to take stock of how I handle things.
I’ve got an approach which works well, week in, week out, throughout the rest of the season - but I’m not convinced it works for Cheltenham.
I think I’ll need to change things a little next season - so I’ll be giving some thought to exactly what and how.
That can all wait though - I now need to start studying for Uttoxeter and Kempton tomorrow.
There really is no rest for the wicked :)
TVB.
Daily write-up - Mar 15th (Cheltenham - Day 4)
Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival…
It’s been a tough week so far - but I kind of expected that.
It’s getting harder and harder to find decent bets at Cheltenham.
Yesterday, there were 6 very well backed winners - and one complete rag.
As a ‘value bettor’, that’s not a set of results that I would want…
I felt that all of the well backed winners, had been put in plenty short enough in the morning - yet they were all backed in to even shorter.
Sire du Berlais was a classic example: 11/2 in the morning - became 4/1 at the off.
I thought it might happen - but there is no way I could have got involved with the horse, using conventional measures of price and value.
However, they seem to count for little at Cheltenham - which is concerning…
In truth, this isn't the first year this has happened - and I do need to think long and hard about how I tackle future Cheltenhams.
The TVB season is 5 months long - and I don’t want the results skewed by 4 crazy days betting !
Anyway, enough of the defeatest talk - and on to finding some winners !
Unfortunately, today looks tough (even by this weeks standards !).
I’ve managed to find a few tips - though I’ve adopted a slightly different approach.
I’ve gone for a couple in each of the days 3 handicaps - and have tipped what I consider the most likely winner, in addition to a ‘value’ bet…
There are also a couple of ante-post positions, from earlier in the season.
Hopefully at least one of the tips will come home in front, and rescue the week !
Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other races…
Cheltenham
1:30
Sir Erec is ridiculously short for this, based on his form over hurdles - but I suspect he will win.
Rated 105 on the flat (which is group class), he is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He won narrowly on his debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, before following up in the Grade 1 Spring juvenile at the Dublin festival, in February.
He was impressive on the latter occasion - but had the run of the race from the front - and his 6 length winning margin, probably flatters him.
Certainly, on his debut win, he has little in hand of Tiger Tap Tap.
He beat that one by just a neck, so he must be theoretical value, at 10/1…
However, Sir Erec is trained by Joseph O’Brien and he has an extremely strong hand of juvenile hurdlers.
His Fakir D’oudaries was sent off joint favourite for the Supreme on Tuesday, having been re-routed from this race, to avoid clashing with Sir Erec.
He also trained Band of Outlaws, who won the Fred Winter on Wednesday, having been backed as if defeat was out the question (which it was !).
Sir Erec is apparently considered in a different league to those two - and as a consequence, he is going to be very hard to beat today.
In truth, even if I felt it was worth the risk to take him on, I don’t know what I would oppose him with.
Whilst half cases can be made for a few of his opponents, non of them have stand out credentials.
For those who fancy a real punt, then Hannon EW, is quite interesting.
However, for those who just want to back a winner, Sir Erec is almost certainly the way to go…
2:10
The first of the days big handicaps - and arguably the most open of the 3.
I reckon that a chance can be given to at least half the runners - though I’m sure the market will have polarised its opinion, come the off !
I’ve decided to take 2 Irish trained runners against the field: one trained by Willie Mullins and the other by Gordon Elliott - so there is nothing wrong with their credentials !
Both trainers saddle 3 in the race, so the first challenge, is working out their best chance.
For Mullins, I hope it is Mr Adjudicator, who is ridden by Paul Townend (Ruby is on the favourite, Whiskey Sour).
Mr Adjudicator finished second in last seasons Triumph hurdle, beaten a couple of lengths by Farclas.
He followed up that run, by occupying the same position in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
He’s only run once this season - when once again finishing second, this time at Naas.
He was actually little flattered by the result that day, as Saldier (the horse who beat him at Punchestown), would have finished ahead of him but for falling at the last.
That said, the winner of the race was Espoir Dallen - and following his romp in the Champion on Tuesday, an 11 length defeat, doesn’t look too bad !
In truth, it’s hard to get a proper handle on Mr Adjudicator.
However, there is a chance that he is top class - and even off a mark of 149, I think he is worth a risk.
Eclair de Beaufeur is the other one I want on side.
He’s ridden by Jack Kennedy - and does appear to be the main hope for Gordon Elliott.
He’s a relatively inexperienced novice, who seems to be progressing - and who ran really well on his handicap debut, last time out.
That was in a very valuable handicap at the Dublin festival - and his fourth placing was an excellent effort, considering his inexperience.
If he can build on that run, then I think he has every chance, this afternoon..,.
Of the others, then a case could be made for plenty - though nothing more compelling than the cases for Mr Adjudicator and Eclair de Beaufeur.
2:50
Whilst this may not be a handicap, it’s as tricky to unravel as any handicap that’s been run all week.
Historically, it’s a race which has been won by a ‘tough’ horse, so the inclination is to oppose those with limited experience (which includes a few of the market leaders).
However, even applying that criteria, leaves far more who have a chance, than I feel comfortable with…
My original intention was to tip Derrinross.
However, the form of his defeats of Sams Profile and Defi Bleu, doesn’t look as strong as I would like.
He’s definitely got possibilities - but his odds of 10/1, look about right…
Of the market leaders, then Lisnagar Oscar and Commander of Fleet are the 2 of most interest - but I really couldn’t back anything at single figures, in this race.
Plenty of the outsiders can be given half chances, including Salsaretta, Nadaitak and First Approach - but it would be tough to choose just one of them to side with, and I don’t really want to be taking 3 speculative shots at the race (at a minimum !).
On balance, I feel it’s a race that can only be watched.
I honestly think that a case could be made for at least 15 of the runners - and whilst there is almost certainly some theoretical value in the race, you’ll need a fair bit of luck in order to land on the winner…
3:30
The 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup looks only marginally easier to solve than the race that precedes it !
16 runners - of which at least half can be given a chance.
As is so often the case in these races, rhythm and jumping are likely to be the deciding factors - but figuring those out in advance, is virtually impossible.
Presenting Percy and Clan des Obeux head the market - and I think that is right.
They are both young progressive chasers, who should be well suited to todays test.
I certainly prefer them to last seasons winner, Native River.
Everything fell right for him last season - and I’ll be surprised if that happens again today.
I could see him getting placed - but I can’t see him winning…
Kemboy, Belshill, Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only, all represent Willie Mullins and they have a chance of breaking his duck in the race.
That said, I’m not convinced that any of them are quite up to the level required to win a Gold Cup.
Of the 4, I just prefer the chances of Al Boum Photo - though he would be better on softer ground and over a slightly shorter trip.
Might Bite and Thistlecrack have both been top class horses - but it’s rare for a Gold Cup to be won by a horse of their ages (10 & 11) - particularly when the field is as strong as todays.
And then there is Shattered Love…
I tipped her ante post, just before she ran in the Savill chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
She finished last in the race (not ideal !) - but she hated the ground.
She’s not run since - and has under gone a wind op in the interim.
On her form from last season, she can be given a chance.
She was most impressive when winning the JLT; and then ran Al Boum Photo close, when probably not quite at her peak.
I’m absolutely sure that Gordon Elliott will have her spot on for today - and whilst she needs to find about 10lb of improvement to have a chance of winning, that’s not impossible.
If you’ve not yet backed her, then at 25/1 or better, she is worth a small play (maybe EW).
As for the most likely winner: then I would suggest Clan des Obeaux - but in such a strong race, he can’t be a bet, at just 9/2…
4:10
Whilst 24 might go to post for this, I suspect that only half a dozen of them, will actually count…
Unsurprisingly, those half dozen all sit at the head of the betting - and thankfully, they include Shantou Flyer.
I put him up as an ante-post tip last month - and he was a risky one, to say the least !
In order to just get a run in todays race, he first needed to finish in the top 2 in a couple of hunter chases - and the poor weather and equine flu, nearly managed to prevent him from achieving that.
However, he somehow did it: by first wining at Kelso - and then following up at Fontwell, 10 days later…
In truth, neither victory was achieved as I would have liked: he was very laboured at Kelso - and then seemed to endure a particularly hard race at Fontwell.
Still, he’s made it here - and had almost 3 weeks to recover from his most recent run.
Assuming that race didn’t bottom him, then I doubt he’ll want for fitness !
And in her does arrive in peak form, then I really think he will take a bit of beating.
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race - behind Ucello Conti - but unlike that one, Shantou Flyer is still at his peak (9 years old) and has very strong festival form.
It’s also very interesting that he gets a change of head gear today.
I suspect the horse is a bit of a thinker. He wore cheek pieces for the first time, when second at the course on new Years day last year; and then sported a first time visor when runner up in last years Ultima.
Hopefully the blinkers which have been enlisted today, will encourage him to put his best foot forward.
The dangers are obvious: in addition to Ucelle Conti, they are Stand up and Fight, Hazel Hill, Caid du Berlais and Road to Rome.
All 5 can be given a chance and I wouldn’t want to pick between them.
That said, if Shantou Flyer runs as well as he can, then I think he will be very hard to beat…
4:50
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race - and I think it is worth siding with a couple of his runners, to keep that going…
Le Prezien won the race for him last season and it’s hard to think that he won’t go very close again today, off a mark just 1lb higher.
This kind of race is always going to suit Le Prezien, because it tends to be run at a million miles an hour.
If Barry Geraghty can get him settled and jumping out the back, then there is a good chance he will be able to pick off his rivals up the home straight.
That’s what happened 12 months ago - and there is a distinct possibility that it will happen again this afternoon.
The caveats are that his jumping will need to hold up - and the ground will need to be soft-ish.
Assuming that is the case, then I think he could take a bit of stopping.
That said, there is a chance that his stablemate, Magic Star, will prove too well handicapped for him to handle…
He was an eye catcher on his UK debut - and whilst he seemed to disappoint next time, subsequent events showed that his run at Ascot, behind Hell’s Kitchen and Janika, was much better than it looked at the time.
On his only subsequent run, he hacked up at Wincanton, having been backed at if defeat was out of the question.
He’s been raised 7lb for that win - but he’s a young progressive horse - and that may not stop him…
Of the others, then Not Another Muddle and Minds Eye look the biggest dangers - but like Magic Star, they have been well found in the market - and I prefer his chances.
Of the outsiders, then Mr Medic is the one that interest me most, stepping back in trip.
However, he needs decent ground to be at his best…
5:30
The final race of the 2019 festival - and whilst 24 runners and conditional jockeys suggest anything could happen, I suspect that the outcome could be quite predictable…
Dallas des Pictons and Early Doors dominate the market - and I won’t be overly surprised if they dominate the race.
Both have very strong credentials: with the former looking a horse on a serious upward curve: and the latter appearing to have been targeted at this race, having finished third in the corresponding contest 12 months ago.
I could have sided with either - but at 3/1 Dalla des Pictons and 11/2 Early Doors, the market effectively made the decision for me.
It strikes me as very significant that Jonjo O’Neill Jnr rides Early Doors, when Big Time Dancer is also in the race.
That horse gave him the biggest win of his career, so far, when wining the Lanzarote last time at Kempton.
Getting off him can’t have been an easy thing to do - and just adds more weight to the argument that Early Doors has been targeted at the race.
There is little that can be taken from his 3 runs, since last seasons festival - as in 2 of them, he has finished miles behind Apples Jade.
However, I suspect those outings were simply about keeping him ticking over - with today the day that really counts…
Whilst I do expect the race to be dominated by the 2 market leaders, as we’ve seen a couple of times this week, they can some times blow out.
In case that happens, then I think it is worth also having Coolanley on side, as he looks massively over-priced…
He won a grade 2 over today course in November - and whilst he has disappointed in his 2 subsequent races, if Fergal O’Brien can get him back to peak form today, he would have a real chance.
Certainly, his mark of 140 looks feasible - and booking of Conor Brace, is a definite positive.
At 33/1, he is just too tempting to resist..!
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 2:10 Mr Adjudicator 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 2:10 Eclair de Beaufeu 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 3:30 Shattered Love 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Shantou Flyer 0.5pt win 14/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:50 Magic Saint 0.5pt win 5/1
Chel 4:50 Le Prezien 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 5:30 Early Doors 0.5pt win 11/2
Chel 5:30 Coolanley 0.5pt win 33/1
Mentions
Chel 1:30 Hannon EW
Chel 2:50 Derrinross (O )
It’s been a tough week so far - but I kind of expected that.
It’s getting harder and harder to find decent bets at Cheltenham.
Yesterday, there were 6 very well backed winners - and one complete rag.
As a ‘value bettor’, that’s not a set of results that I would want…
I felt that all of the well backed winners, had been put in plenty short enough in the morning - yet they were all backed in to even shorter.
Sire du Berlais was a classic example: 11/2 in the morning - became 4/1 at the off.
I thought it might happen - but there is no way I could have got involved with the horse, using conventional measures of price and value.
However, they seem to count for little at Cheltenham - which is concerning…
In truth, this isn't the first year this has happened - and I do need to think long and hard about how I tackle future Cheltenhams.
The TVB season is 5 months long - and I don’t want the results skewed by 4 crazy days betting !
Anyway, enough of the defeatest talk - and on to finding some winners !
Unfortunately, today looks tough (even by this weeks standards !).
I’ve managed to find a few tips - though I’ve adopted a slightly different approach.
I’ve gone for a couple in each of the days 3 handicaps - and have tipped what I consider the most likely winner, in addition to a ‘value’ bet…
There are also a couple of ante-post positions, from earlier in the season.
Hopefully at least one of the tips will come home in front, and rescue the week !
Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other races…
Cheltenham
1:30
Sir Erec is ridiculously short for this, based on his form over hurdles - but I suspect he will win.
Rated 105 on the flat (which is group class), he is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He won narrowly on his debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, before following up in the Grade 1 Spring juvenile at the Dublin festival, in February.
He was impressive on the latter occasion - but had the run of the race from the front - and his 6 length winning margin, probably flatters him.
Certainly, on his debut win, he has little in hand of Tiger Tap Tap.
He beat that one by just a neck, so he must be theoretical value, at 10/1…
However, Sir Erec is trained by Joseph O’Brien and he has an extremely strong hand of juvenile hurdlers.
His Fakir D’oudaries was sent off joint favourite for the Supreme on Tuesday, having been re-routed from this race, to avoid clashing with Sir Erec.
He also trained Band of Outlaws, who won the Fred Winter on Wednesday, having been backed as if defeat was out the question (which it was !).
Sir Erec is apparently considered in a different league to those two - and as a consequence, he is going to be very hard to beat today.
In truth, even if I felt it was worth the risk to take him on, I don’t know what I would oppose him with.
Whilst half cases can be made for a few of his opponents, non of them have stand out credentials.
For those who fancy a real punt, then Hannon EW, is quite interesting.
However, for those who just want to back a winner, Sir Erec is almost certainly the way to go…
2:10
The first of the days big handicaps - and arguably the most open of the 3.
I reckon that a chance can be given to at least half the runners - though I’m sure the market will have polarised its opinion, come the off !
I’ve decided to take 2 Irish trained runners against the field: one trained by Willie Mullins and the other by Gordon Elliott - so there is nothing wrong with their credentials !
Both trainers saddle 3 in the race, so the first challenge, is working out their best chance.
For Mullins, I hope it is Mr Adjudicator, who is ridden by Paul Townend (Ruby is on the favourite, Whiskey Sour).
Mr Adjudicator finished second in last seasons Triumph hurdle, beaten a couple of lengths by Farclas.
He followed up that run, by occupying the same position in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
He’s only run once this season - when once again finishing second, this time at Naas.
He was actually little flattered by the result that day, as Saldier (the horse who beat him at Punchestown), would have finished ahead of him but for falling at the last.
That said, the winner of the race was Espoir Dallen - and following his romp in the Champion on Tuesday, an 11 length defeat, doesn’t look too bad !
In truth, it’s hard to get a proper handle on Mr Adjudicator.
However, there is a chance that he is top class - and even off a mark of 149, I think he is worth a risk.
Eclair de Beaufeur is the other one I want on side.
He’s ridden by Jack Kennedy - and does appear to be the main hope for Gordon Elliott.
He’s a relatively inexperienced novice, who seems to be progressing - and who ran really well on his handicap debut, last time out.
That was in a very valuable handicap at the Dublin festival - and his fourth placing was an excellent effort, considering his inexperience.
If he can build on that run, then I think he has every chance, this afternoon..,.
Of the others, then a case could be made for plenty - though nothing more compelling than the cases for Mr Adjudicator and Eclair de Beaufeur.
2:50
Whilst this may not be a handicap, it’s as tricky to unravel as any handicap that’s been run all week.
Historically, it’s a race which has been won by a ‘tough’ horse, so the inclination is to oppose those with limited experience (which includes a few of the market leaders).
However, even applying that criteria, leaves far more who have a chance, than I feel comfortable with…
My original intention was to tip Derrinross.
However, the form of his defeats of Sams Profile and Defi Bleu, doesn’t look as strong as I would like.
He’s definitely got possibilities - but his odds of 10/1, look about right…
Of the market leaders, then Lisnagar Oscar and Commander of Fleet are the 2 of most interest - but I really couldn’t back anything at single figures, in this race.
Plenty of the outsiders can be given half chances, including Salsaretta, Nadaitak and First Approach - but it would be tough to choose just one of them to side with, and I don’t really want to be taking 3 speculative shots at the race (at a minimum !).
On balance, I feel it’s a race that can only be watched.
I honestly think that a case could be made for at least 15 of the runners - and whilst there is almost certainly some theoretical value in the race, you’ll need a fair bit of luck in order to land on the winner…
3:30
The 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup looks only marginally easier to solve than the race that precedes it !
16 runners - of which at least half can be given a chance.
As is so often the case in these races, rhythm and jumping are likely to be the deciding factors - but figuring those out in advance, is virtually impossible.
Presenting Percy and Clan des Obeux head the market - and I think that is right.
They are both young progressive chasers, who should be well suited to todays test.
I certainly prefer them to last seasons winner, Native River.
Everything fell right for him last season - and I’ll be surprised if that happens again today.
I could see him getting placed - but I can’t see him winning…
Kemboy, Belshill, Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only, all represent Willie Mullins and they have a chance of breaking his duck in the race.
That said, I’m not convinced that any of them are quite up to the level required to win a Gold Cup.
Of the 4, I just prefer the chances of Al Boum Photo - though he would be better on softer ground and over a slightly shorter trip.
Might Bite and Thistlecrack have both been top class horses - but it’s rare for a Gold Cup to be won by a horse of their ages (10 & 11) - particularly when the field is as strong as todays.
And then there is Shattered Love…
I tipped her ante post, just before she ran in the Savill chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
She finished last in the race (not ideal !) - but she hated the ground.
She’s not run since - and has under gone a wind op in the interim.
On her form from last season, she can be given a chance.
She was most impressive when winning the JLT; and then ran Al Boum Photo close, when probably not quite at her peak.
I’m absolutely sure that Gordon Elliott will have her spot on for today - and whilst she needs to find about 10lb of improvement to have a chance of winning, that’s not impossible.
If you’ve not yet backed her, then at 25/1 or better, she is worth a small play (maybe EW).
As for the most likely winner: then I would suggest Clan des Obeaux - but in such a strong race, he can’t be a bet, at just 9/2…
4:10
Whilst 24 might go to post for this, I suspect that only half a dozen of them, will actually count…
Unsurprisingly, those half dozen all sit at the head of the betting - and thankfully, they include Shantou Flyer.
I put him up as an ante-post tip last month - and he was a risky one, to say the least !
In order to just get a run in todays race, he first needed to finish in the top 2 in a couple of hunter chases - and the poor weather and equine flu, nearly managed to prevent him from achieving that.
However, he somehow did it: by first wining at Kelso - and then following up at Fontwell, 10 days later…
In truth, neither victory was achieved as I would have liked: he was very laboured at Kelso - and then seemed to endure a particularly hard race at Fontwell.
Still, he’s made it here - and had almost 3 weeks to recover from his most recent run.
Assuming that race didn’t bottom him, then I doubt he’ll want for fitness !
And in her does arrive in peak form, then I really think he will take a bit of beating.
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race - behind Ucello Conti - but unlike that one, Shantou Flyer is still at his peak (9 years old) and has very strong festival form.
It’s also very interesting that he gets a change of head gear today.
I suspect the horse is a bit of a thinker. He wore cheek pieces for the first time, when second at the course on new Years day last year; and then sported a first time visor when runner up in last years Ultima.
Hopefully the blinkers which have been enlisted today, will encourage him to put his best foot forward.
The dangers are obvious: in addition to Ucelle Conti, they are Stand up and Fight, Hazel Hill, Caid du Berlais and Road to Rome.
All 5 can be given a chance and I wouldn’t want to pick between them.
That said, if Shantou Flyer runs as well as he can, then I think he will be very hard to beat…
4:50
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race - and I think it is worth siding with a couple of his runners, to keep that going…
Le Prezien won the race for him last season and it’s hard to think that he won’t go very close again today, off a mark just 1lb higher.
This kind of race is always going to suit Le Prezien, because it tends to be run at a million miles an hour.
If Barry Geraghty can get him settled and jumping out the back, then there is a good chance he will be able to pick off his rivals up the home straight.
That’s what happened 12 months ago - and there is a distinct possibility that it will happen again this afternoon.
The caveats are that his jumping will need to hold up - and the ground will need to be soft-ish.
Assuming that is the case, then I think he could take a bit of stopping.
That said, there is a chance that his stablemate, Magic Star, will prove too well handicapped for him to handle…
He was an eye catcher on his UK debut - and whilst he seemed to disappoint next time, subsequent events showed that his run at Ascot, behind Hell’s Kitchen and Janika, was much better than it looked at the time.
On his only subsequent run, he hacked up at Wincanton, having been backed at if defeat was out of the question.
He’s been raised 7lb for that win - but he’s a young progressive horse - and that may not stop him…
Of the others, then Not Another Muddle and Minds Eye look the biggest dangers - but like Magic Star, they have been well found in the market - and I prefer his chances.
Of the outsiders, then Mr Medic is the one that interest me most, stepping back in trip.
However, he needs decent ground to be at his best…
5:30
The final race of the 2019 festival - and whilst 24 runners and conditional jockeys suggest anything could happen, I suspect that the outcome could be quite predictable…
Dallas des Pictons and Early Doors dominate the market - and I won’t be overly surprised if they dominate the race.
Both have very strong credentials: with the former looking a horse on a serious upward curve: and the latter appearing to have been targeted at this race, having finished third in the corresponding contest 12 months ago.
I could have sided with either - but at 3/1 Dalla des Pictons and 11/2 Early Doors, the market effectively made the decision for me.
It strikes me as very significant that Jonjo O’Neill Jnr rides Early Doors, when Big Time Dancer is also in the race.
That horse gave him the biggest win of his career, so far, when wining the Lanzarote last time at Kempton.
Getting off him can’t have been an easy thing to do - and just adds more weight to the argument that Early Doors has been targeted at the race.
There is little that can be taken from his 3 runs, since last seasons festival - as in 2 of them, he has finished miles behind Apples Jade.
However, I suspect those outings were simply about keeping him ticking over - with today the day that really counts…
Whilst I do expect the race to be dominated by the 2 market leaders, as we’ve seen a couple of times this week, they can some times blow out.
In case that happens, then I think it is worth also having Coolanley on side, as he looks massively over-priced…
He won a grade 2 over today course in November - and whilst he has disappointed in his 2 subsequent races, if Fergal O’Brien can get him back to peak form today, he would have a real chance.
Certainly, his mark of 140 looks feasible - and booking of Conor Brace, is a definite positive.
At 33/1, he is just too tempting to resist..!
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 2:10 Mr Adjudicator 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 2:10 Eclair de Beaufeu 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 3:30 Shattered Love 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Shantou Flyer 0.5pt win 14/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:50 Magic Saint 0.5pt win 5/1
Chel 4:50 Le Prezien 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 5:30 Early Doors 0.5pt win 11/2
Chel 5:30 Coolanley 0.5pt win 33/1
Mentions
Chel 1:30 Hannon EW
Chel 2:50 Derrinross (O )
Review of the day
There was no joy again for todays tips - which was disappointing, considering that most of them ran really well.
However, at Cheltenham, running well is rarely good enough - you need to put in a flawless round, and non of them quite managed to do that…
First up it was Vinndication.
I knew he would have his work cut out to reverse Sandown form with Defi de Seuil and Lostintranslation - but felt there was a chance that he could do just that.
However, an early mistake put him on the back foot - and with his 2 main opponents barely making a mistake between them, he was never able to mount a meaningful challenge.
He ran well, and was just nosed out of fourth place - which was probably a fair reflection of his ability…
It was a similar story with Road to Respect.
He was the main tip on the day - and I really thought he would run well.
And he did just that, stalking the leader throughout and seemingly travelling nicely.
However, he made a crucial mistake at the third last, just as he was about to mount his challenge - and he couldn't recover from that.
Ultimately, he finished third - beaten 3 lengths, by a horse who got the run of the race and jumped superbly…
I tipped 2 in the Stayers hurdle - and again, they both ran well.
In fact, Sam Spinner ran exceptionally well - and just for a moment, approaching the last, it looked as if he might pull off a huge shock.
However, Paisley Park proved to be as good as his reputation, and he collared Sam Spinner on the run to the last - and then stayed on up the hill.
It reminded me of Lil Rockerfeller a couple of years back - it’s fair to say that the Stayers hurdle is not my favourite race at the Festival !
Next it was the Plate - and again, Bouvreuil ran a great race - but ended up with nothing to show for it.
He was baulked by an early faller - but travelled really powerfully until the home turn.
The problem for him, was that the 4 market leaders were all in front of him - and all travelling just as well.
And unfortunately, non of them faltered up the hill - and try as Richie McLernon might, he couldn’t quite get Bouvreuil into the frame.
It was yet another big effort - but again, that counted for nothing…
The final tips on the day ran in the Mares novice hurdle.
I was keen to take on favourite Epatante - and I was right to do so,.
I even think I picked a couple of fair ones to oppose her with, as both Elusive Belle and Indefatigable, ran well.
However, once again, neither ran quite well enough - and in a finish of rank outsiders, Indefatigable did best of the pair, with an honourable fifth placing.
As for the Mentions:
Then somehow, Barry Geraghty managed to get Sire du Berlais home in front in the Pertemps final.
He was backed in to 4/1 at the off - but I’ve no idea how he managed to win.
Somehow, the very well backed ones just seem to…
Captain Chaos also ran really well in the Fulke Walwyn.
But having led to the home turn, his stamina gave out up the straight (as I feared it might)…
Just one day left then, to right the weeks wrongs.
No pressure :)
TVB.
However, at Cheltenham, running well is rarely good enough - you need to put in a flawless round, and non of them quite managed to do that…
First up it was Vinndication.
I knew he would have his work cut out to reverse Sandown form with Defi de Seuil and Lostintranslation - but felt there was a chance that he could do just that.
However, an early mistake put him on the back foot - and with his 2 main opponents barely making a mistake between them, he was never able to mount a meaningful challenge.
He ran well, and was just nosed out of fourth place - which was probably a fair reflection of his ability…
It was a similar story with Road to Respect.
He was the main tip on the day - and I really thought he would run well.
And he did just that, stalking the leader throughout and seemingly travelling nicely.
However, he made a crucial mistake at the third last, just as he was about to mount his challenge - and he couldn't recover from that.
Ultimately, he finished third - beaten 3 lengths, by a horse who got the run of the race and jumped superbly…
I tipped 2 in the Stayers hurdle - and again, they both ran well.
In fact, Sam Spinner ran exceptionally well - and just for a moment, approaching the last, it looked as if he might pull off a huge shock.
However, Paisley Park proved to be as good as his reputation, and he collared Sam Spinner on the run to the last - and then stayed on up the hill.
It reminded me of Lil Rockerfeller a couple of years back - it’s fair to say that the Stayers hurdle is not my favourite race at the Festival !
Next it was the Plate - and again, Bouvreuil ran a great race - but ended up with nothing to show for it.
He was baulked by an early faller - but travelled really powerfully until the home turn.
The problem for him, was that the 4 market leaders were all in front of him - and all travelling just as well.
And unfortunately, non of them faltered up the hill - and try as Richie McLernon might, he couldn’t quite get Bouvreuil into the frame.
It was yet another big effort - but again, that counted for nothing…
The final tips on the day ran in the Mares novice hurdle.
I was keen to take on favourite Epatante - and I was right to do so,.
I even think I picked a couple of fair ones to oppose her with, as both Elusive Belle and Indefatigable, ran well.
However, once again, neither ran quite well enough - and in a finish of rank outsiders, Indefatigable did best of the pair, with an honourable fifth placing.
As for the Mentions:
Then somehow, Barry Geraghty managed to get Sire du Berlais home in front in the Pertemps final.
He was backed in to 4/1 at the off - but I’ve no idea how he managed to win.
Somehow, the very well backed ones just seem to…
Captain Chaos also ran really well in the Fulke Walwyn.
But having led to the home turn, his stamina gave out up the straight (as I feared it might)…
Just one day left then, to right the weeks wrongs.
No pressure :)
TVB.
Daily write-up - Mar 14th (Cheltenham - Day 3)
Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival…
The action will switch to the new course this afternoon, so all of the races will be run on fresh ground.
It looked to be riding just on the soft side yesterday - and it shouldn’t be any worse today.
Looking at yesterdays results, with the final 4 races all won by short priced favourites, I was always going to struggle,
My hopes are higher for today.
Historically, Thursdays races tend to have the best betting shape.
Ofcourse, even if opportunities exist, then they still need to be converted - and for that to happen, we’ll need a bit of luck.
Fingers crossed !
I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day (including an ante-post one).
I could easily have issued a few more - but I’ve declined to take on 2 of the big field handicaps.
I’ve still got views on them, however - in addition to the rationale behind the days tips…
Cheltenham
1:30
For a few months now, the market for this race has been dominated by Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation.
They have already met twice this year - and there has been precious little between them.
On the first occasion, Lostintransation got back up to pip an idling Defi Du Seuil; whilst on the second meeting, Defi was delivered later by Barry Geraghty and managed to gain his revenge.
I suspect there will be little between the pair again this afternoon - and they definitely set the standard for the race - but I’m hopeful that Vinndication will be able to get the better of them…
On first viewing, that might seem unlikely as he was comfortably beaten by them both last time out at Sandown.
However, as we’ve already seen this week, Sandown and Cheltenham present very different tests - and Vinndication was sent off 11/8 favourite that day.
His price was down to the fact that he was, until then, unbeaten over obstacles.
More than that, he had showed very good form - and a really willing attitude.
There was nothing wrong with his attitude at Sandown - and ultimately he was only beaten 3 lengths.
In a way, it’s still a little surprising that he is taking on the 2 horses who beat him, when the initial feeling seemed to be that he would benefit from a step up in trip.
However, his trainer has been very bullish about his chances, following some strong recent home work - and ultimately, 3 lengths isn’t a huge distance to recover.
Outside of the ‘big 3’, then there is a strong challenge from Ireland - and in particular the stable of Willie Mullins.
Real Steal looks to be his number one contender - and he has won well on his two most recent outings.
However, he had limitations over hurdles - and also fell on his chasing debut.
He will need to be improving fast, if he is to take care of the English horses.
That’s also true for Voix du Reve - though he may benefit from a step up in distance.
The mare, Pravalaguna, has a chance; as does the Gordon Elliott trained Mengli Khan - in short, it’s quite an open race.
That said, I’ll be disappointed if Vinndication doesn’t run really well - and with his battling attitude, whatever beats him, is likely to know it’s been in a race.
2:10
The presence of Sire du Berlais, makes this a tough race to play in…
He stayed on well to finish fourth in last seasons Martin Pipe hurdle, when running from a 2lb higher mark.
He’s only run 3 times since then, most recently when given a masterful ride by Davy, to finish sixth in the Leopardstown the qualifier for this series.
It’s necessary to finish in the first 6 in one of the qualifiers in order to make it into the final - and Davy squeezed him into precisely that position, with the accuracy of a trained marksman !
There is little doubt the horse has been targeted at this race - and connections have a well handicapped horse, who could still be improving,
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is another tell tale sign - and he’s clearly going to take a lot of beating.
The issue is the price: He’s 5/1 in a 24 runner handicap.
I guess I would have less of an issue with that, if he had the actual form to match the price - but it’s more about reading between the lines…
Ultimately, I would expect the market to tell.
11/2 is tight, but he could easily go off a point or two shorter.
If he does, then I doubt you will need to look anywhere else for the winner…
Of the others, then I was quite interested in Abolitionist, for Dr Newland: however he was tipped in a couple of places yesterday afternoon - and the 25/1 available early, soon became 16/1.
I would expect him to run well - but there isn’t too much value left in his price.
2:50
I’m pretty keen on Road to Respect in this.
Partially because I think he’s the best horse in the race: and partially because I think the race will be run to suit him…
In terms of pure ability, then he is the joint highest rated horse in the race, along with Frodon.
More than that, he has earnt his rating, via a series of big efforts in top class races.
He was runner up last time out, in the Irish Gold cup; and that followed a third place in the grade 1 Savills chase at Christmas, when the race didn’t pan out well for him.
He has also got excellent festival form.
He hacked up in the Plate, a couple of seasons back - and then finished fourth in last years Gold Cup.
That race was run on ground softer than he would like, but he was still going as well as anything, at the top of the hill, before his stamina ebbed away up the home straight.
Cutting him back in trip today, looks a smart move - and dropping him a touch in grade, could prove crucial.
That said, this is a tough race - and he faces some worthy opponents.
However 2 of his main rivals, are habitual front runners - and I think that with help Road to Respect as much as it will hinder them.
Both Monalee and Frodon need to lead - and that’s not going to be possible !
In fact, they might find themselves both under pressure from Un de Sceaux - so there really could be a pace burn up.
Such a scenario will suit Road to Respect perfectly, as he likes to travel in behind horses…
In the circumstances, it could mean that Footpad is his biggest danger.
He looked a world beater as a novice last season - but just hasn’t looked the same horse this campaign.
In fairness, he’s only run twice this season, so it’s a bit early to be writing him off; however, there is also a chance that his novice of last year, flattered him…
Of the outsiders, then last years winner, Balco des Flos, looks by far the most dangerous.
However, he has been disappointing this season, so will need to bounce back to his very best - and even if that happens, he might still not be good enough to beat Road to respect…
There is little doubt in my mind that Road to Respect will take a world of beating in this - provided he gets that bit of luck which you always need.
Here’s hoping !
3:30
Paisley Park is being touted as a certainty in this - but I’m not so sure…
Don’t get me wrong, he’s been massively impressive in his races this season - and fully deserves to be at the head of the market for todays race.
However, he’s been on the go since October, and I wonder whether he will still be at his peak this afternoon.
His profile reminds me of that of Unowhatimeanharry, when he ran in the race a couple of seasons back - and he got beaten…
The tricky part, is finding one to beat him…
Faugheen is second favourite - but he’s now 11 and comes here on the back of a mother and father of a fall.
I suspect he is more likely to get pulled up (and retired) than he is to win…
The most obvious one to take advantage if Paisley Park isn’t at his peak, is Supasundae.
He finished runner up in the race 12 months ago - just outsprinted in the finish, by Penhill.
It helped his case that there wasn’t much pace on in last years race - but that may be the case again this afternoon.
There is a chance that Ruby will try and dictate things on Faugheen (which would make him dangerous) - though I suspect he will be harried up front by Sam Spinner and Nautical Nitwit.
I put up Sam Spinner as an ante post tip, back in November.
He was massively disappointing on his first 2 runs this season - but did do a little better last time.
In truth, I would be very surprised if he were to win this afternoon - but at least he’s turned up, so we do have some chance of collecting !
However, I think the chance of collecting on Supasundae is much higher.
It does depend on the 2 market leaders under-performing - but I think that is distinctly possible.
Outside of them, the race is there for the taking - and hopefully Supasundae will be able to take it !
4:10
He may only be 8 years old, but Bouvreuil has already got a very impressive record at the Cheltenham festival…
Formerly trained by Paul Nichols, he finished runner up in the Fred Winter hurdle at the 2015 festival; before filling the same spot, 12 months later in the novice handicap chase.
He could only manage third in the 2017 Plate - but that was behind Road to Respect (as above !) and Baron Alco - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
Last season, he was well fancied for the Grand Annual - but was brought down at the second fence.
I think he deserves a change of festival fortune - and hopefully he will get that this afternoon…
He is now in the care of Ben Haslam, and won on his debut for him at Wetherby in December.
That was a good effort. He beat Movie Legend by a length - and that one has subsequently won twice and is now rated 9lb higher in the handicap.
Bouvreuil on the other hand, is just 3lb higher - having disappointed on his only subsequent run…
That was also in December and I think it is in his favour that he has been kept fresh since then.
He’s also had wind surgery - and I suspect he will primed to run a big race today.
Clearly he will need some luck - but if he gets that, I can’t see him not going very close.
In truth, despite the numbers, this doesn’t look the most competitive of races…
Janika and Siruh du Lac set the standard - but they are both a fair bit higher in the handicap, than when fighting out the finish of a good race on Trials day.
Spiritofthegame also ran well that day - but he looked primed to win on that occasion, so I wonder how much improvement he has in him…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Azzerti run well - though I’m not sure that todays test is ideal for him…
I think there can be little doubt it is ideal for Bouvreuil - and I expect him to run a really big race.
Whether that will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell - but I’m hopeful !
4:50
This is not a race that I particularly expected to be playing in - but a Epatante looks to have been put in too short - and that means there is value elsewhere…
In fairness, to Epatante, she’s nearly impossible to get a handle on, having been a very easy winner of her 2 UK races.
She is clearly held in high regard by connections - but the fitting of a first time hood, hints at issues - and this is too competitive a race to be backing something at 2/1…
Somewhat Ironically, I’m taking her on with Elusive Belle: who has also only run twice in the UK - and will be wearing a first time hood !
However, she was a 16/1 shot yesterday evening, which made her far more appealing.
Whether she has as much ability as Epatante, remains to be seen: but a 19 length destruction of a 136 rated horse (admittedly in receipt of a fair chunk of weight), suggests she could be very useful indeed.
She didn’t give herself any chance of getting home when pulling too hard in a small field race, last time - but todays bigger field and the fitting of the hood, should enable her to show what she is capable of this afternoon…
In addition to her, I want Indefatigable on side, at an even bigger price…
She has finished runner up on her 2 most recent outings. Firstly behind Posh Trish at Taunton; and then behind Lady Buttons, at Doncaster.
They are both strong pieces of form. She was only beaten 2 lengths by Post Trish at Taunton and it really doesn’t make any sense, that she can be backed at the same price to place, as Posh Trish can be backed to win.
In truth, there are plenty of others who can also be given a chance…
Sancta Simona and My Sister Sarah, look two strong contenders for Willie Mullins: whilst Sinoria is a mare on an upward trajectory, who I would expect to run very well.
5:30
I have to be honest, I ran out of time to assess this race properly - and whilst I do have a few half fancies, I don’t want to be tipping something that I’ve not fully researched…
As with the Pertemps final you have to be very fearful that Gordon Elliot has plotted one up here, in the shape of Measureofmydreams.
He finished third behind Minella Roccoa and Native River in the 2016 NH chase - and off a mark of 137 today, he could be thrown in.
He showed distinct promise on his comeback from injury at Fairyhouse last month - and the booking of Jamie Codd shows intent.
However, I really couldn’t entertain him at 9/2 (even less than Sire du Berlais !).
On first inspection, I was drawn to No Comment and Just a Sting, as both should have scope for improvement.
Of the pair, I would slightly prefer the chances of No Comment.
He is a classy horse, who ran well, to a point, in last seasons NH chase.
The other 2 that I briefly considered getting involved with, are Captain Chaos and Perfect Candidate.
I could certainly see the former running well - though I would have some concerns about him getting up the hill.
Perfect Candidate will have no issue with the hill, the question is smply whether his advancing years have caught up with him (he’s now 12).
On balance, I just didn’t feel sufficiently strongly about anything to warrant getting involved with the race.
If forced, I’d side with Cpatain Chaos, each way - and he might be worth a small play if you can get 25/1 and reasonable place terms…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:30 Vinndication 1pt win 8/1
Chel 2:50 Road to Respect 2pt win 9/2
Chel 3:30 Supasundae 1pt win 8/1
Chel 3:30 Sam Spinner 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Bouvreuil 0.5pt EW 25/1
Chel 4:50 Indefatigable 0.5pt EW 33/1
Chel 4:50 Elusive Belle 0.5pt win 16/1
Mentions
Chel 2:10 Sire du Berlais (S )
Chel 5:30 Captain Chaos EW
The action will switch to the new course this afternoon, so all of the races will be run on fresh ground.
It looked to be riding just on the soft side yesterday - and it shouldn’t be any worse today.
Looking at yesterdays results, with the final 4 races all won by short priced favourites, I was always going to struggle,
My hopes are higher for today.
Historically, Thursdays races tend to have the best betting shape.
Ofcourse, even if opportunities exist, then they still need to be converted - and for that to happen, we’ll need a bit of luck.
Fingers crossed !
I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day (including an ante-post one).
I could easily have issued a few more - but I’ve declined to take on 2 of the big field handicaps.
I’ve still got views on them, however - in addition to the rationale behind the days tips…
Cheltenham
1:30
For a few months now, the market for this race has been dominated by Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation.
They have already met twice this year - and there has been precious little between them.
On the first occasion, Lostintransation got back up to pip an idling Defi Du Seuil; whilst on the second meeting, Defi was delivered later by Barry Geraghty and managed to gain his revenge.
I suspect there will be little between the pair again this afternoon - and they definitely set the standard for the race - but I’m hopeful that Vinndication will be able to get the better of them…
On first viewing, that might seem unlikely as he was comfortably beaten by them both last time out at Sandown.
However, as we’ve already seen this week, Sandown and Cheltenham present very different tests - and Vinndication was sent off 11/8 favourite that day.
His price was down to the fact that he was, until then, unbeaten over obstacles.
More than that, he had showed very good form - and a really willing attitude.
There was nothing wrong with his attitude at Sandown - and ultimately he was only beaten 3 lengths.
In a way, it’s still a little surprising that he is taking on the 2 horses who beat him, when the initial feeling seemed to be that he would benefit from a step up in trip.
However, his trainer has been very bullish about his chances, following some strong recent home work - and ultimately, 3 lengths isn’t a huge distance to recover.
Outside of the ‘big 3’, then there is a strong challenge from Ireland - and in particular the stable of Willie Mullins.
Real Steal looks to be his number one contender - and he has won well on his two most recent outings.
However, he had limitations over hurdles - and also fell on his chasing debut.
He will need to be improving fast, if he is to take care of the English horses.
That’s also true for Voix du Reve - though he may benefit from a step up in distance.
The mare, Pravalaguna, has a chance; as does the Gordon Elliott trained Mengli Khan - in short, it’s quite an open race.
That said, I’ll be disappointed if Vinndication doesn’t run really well - and with his battling attitude, whatever beats him, is likely to know it’s been in a race.
2:10
The presence of Sire du Berlais, makes this a tough race to play in…
He stayed on well to finish fourth in last seasons Martin Pipe hurdle, when running from a 2lb higher mark.
He’s only run 3 times since then, most recently when given a masterful ride by Davy, to finish sixth in the Leopardstown the qualifier for this series.
It’s necessary to finish in the first 6 in one of the qualifiers in order to make it into the final - and Davy squeezed him into precisely that position, with the accuracy of a trained marksman !
There is little doubt the horse has been targeted at this race - and connections have a well handicapped horse, who could still be improving,
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is another tell tale sign - and he’s clearly going to take a lot of beating.
The issue is the price: He’s 5/1 in a 24 runner handicap.
I guess I would have less of an issue with that, if he had the actual form to match the price - but it’s more about reading between the lines…
Ultimately, I would expect the market to tell.
11/2 is tight, but he could easily go off a point or two shorter.
If he does, then I doubt you will need to look anywhere else for the winner…
Of the others, then I was quite interested in Abolitionist, for Dr Newland: however he was tipped in a couple of places yesterday afternoon - and the 25/1 available early, soon became 16/1.
I would expect him to run well - but there isn’t too much value left in his price.
2:50
I’m pretty keen on Road to Respect in this.
Partially because I think he’s the best horse in the race: and partially because I think the race will be run to suit him…
In terms of pure ability, then he is the joint highest rated horse in the race, along with Frodon.
More than that, he has earnt his rating, via a series of big efforts in top class races.
He was runner up last time out, in the Irish Gold cup; and that followed a third place in the grade 1 Savills chase at Christmas, when the race didn’t pan out well for him.
He has also got excellent festival form.
He hacked up in the Plate, a couple of seasons back - and then finished fourth in last years Gold Cup.
That race was run on ground softer than he would like, but he was still going as well as anything, at the top of the hill, before his stamina ebbed away up the home straight.
Cutting him back in trip today, looks a smart move - and dropping him a touch in grade, could prove crucial.
That said, this is a tough race - and he faces some worthy opponents.
However 2 of his main rivals, are habitual front runners - and I think that with help Road to Respect as much as it will hinder them.
Both Monalee and Frodon need to lead - and that’s not going to be possible !
In fact, they might find themselves both under pressure from Un de Sceaux - so there really could be a pace burn up.
Such a scenario will suit Road to Respect perfectly, as he likes to travel in behind horses…
In the circumstances, it could mean that Footpad is his biggest danger.
He looked a world beater as a novice last season - but just hasn’t looked the same horse this campaign.
In fairness, he’s only run twice this season, so it’s a bit early to be writing him off; however, there is also a chance that his novice of last year, flattered him…
Of the outsiders, then last years winner, Balco des Flos, looks by far the most dangerous.
However, he has been disappointing this season, so will need to bounce back to his very best - and even if that happens, he might still not be good enough to beat Road to respect…
There is little doubt in my mind that Road to Respect will take a world of beating in this - provided he gets that bit of luck which you always need.
Here’s hoping !
3:30
Paisley Park is being touted as a certainty in this - but I’m not so sure…
Don’t get me wrong, he’s been massively impressive in his races this season - and fully deserves to be at the head of the market for todays race.
However, he’s been on the go since October, and I wonder whether he will still be at his peak this afternoon.
His profile reminds me of that of Unowhatimeanharry, when he ran in the race a couple of seasons back - and he got beaten…
The tricky part, is finding one to beat him…
Faugheen is second favourite - but he’s now 11 and comes here on the back of a mother and father of a fall.
I suspect he is more likely to get pulled up (and retired) than he is to win…
The most obvious one to take advantage if Paisley Park isn’t at his peak, is Supasundae.
He finished runner up in the race 12 months ago - just outsprinted in the finish, by Penhill.
It helped his case that there wasn’t much pace on in last years race - but that may be the case again this afternoon.
There is a chance that Ruby will try and dictate things on Faugheen (which would make him dangerous) - though I suspect he will be harried up front by Sam Spinner and Nautical Nitwit.
I put up Sam Spinner as an ante post tip, back in November.
He was massively disappointing on his first 2 runs this season - but did do a little better last time.
In truth, I would be very surprised if he were to win this afternoon - but at least he’s turned up, so we do have some chance of collecting !
However, I think the chance of collecting on Supasundae is much higher.
It does depend on the 2 market leaders under-performing - but I think that is distinctly possible.
Outside of them, the race is there for the taking - and hopefully Supasundae will be able to take it !
4:10
He may only be 8 years old, but Bouvreuil has already got a very impressive record at the Cheltenham festival…
Formerly trained by Paul Nichols, he finished runner up in the Fred Winter hurdle at the 2015 festival; before filling the same spot, 12 months later in the novice handicap chase.
He could only manage third in the 2017 Plate - but that was behind Road to Respect (as above !) and Baron Alco - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
Last season, he was well fancied for the Grand Annual - but was brought down at the second fence.
I think he deserves a change of festival fortune - and hopefully he will get that this afternoon…
He is now in the care of Ben Haslam, and won on his debut for him at Wetherby in December.
That was a good effort. He beat Movie Legend by a length - and that one has subsequently won twice and is now rated 9lb higher in the handicap.
Bouvreuil on the other hand, is just 3lb higher - having disappointed on his only subsequent run…
That was also in December and I think it is in his favour that he has been kept fresh since then.
He’s also had wind surgery - and I suspect he will primed to run a big race today.
Clearly he will need some luck - but if he gets that, I can’t see him not going very close.
In truth, despite the numbers, this doesn’t look the most competitive of races…
Janika and Siruh du Lac set the standard - but they are both a fair bit higher in the handicap, than when fighting out the finish of a good race on Trials day.
Spiritofthegame also ran well that day - but he looked primed to win on that occasion, so I wonder how much improvement he has in him…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Azzerti run well - though I’m not sure that todays test is ideal for him…
I think there can be little doubt it is ideal for Bouvreuil - and I expect him to run a really big race.
Whether that will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell - but I’m hopeful !
4:50
This is not a race that I particularly expected to be playing in - but a Epatante looks to have been put in too short - and that means there is value elsewhere…
In fairness, to Epatante, she’s nearly impossible to get a handle on, having been a very easy winner of her 2 UK races.
She is clearly held in high regard by connections - but the fitting of a first time hood, hints at issues - and this is too competitive a race to be backing something at 2/1…
Somewhat Ironically, I’m taking her on with Elusive Belle: who has also only run twice in the UK - and will be wearing a first time hood !
However, she was a 16/1 shot yesterday evening, which made her far more appealing.
Whether she has as much ability as Epatante, remains to be seen: but a 19 length destruction of a 136 rated horse (admittedly in receipt of a fair chunk of weight), suggests she could be very useful indeed.
She didn’t give herself any chance of getting home when pulling too hard in a small field race, last time - but todays bigger field and the fitting of the hood, should enable her to show what she is capable of this afternoon…
In addition to her, I want Indefatigable on side, at an even bigger price…
She has finished runner up on her 2 most recent outings. Firstly behind Posh Trish at Taunton; and then behind Lady Buttons, at Doncaster.
They are both strong pieces of form. She was only beaten 2 lengths by Post Trish at Taunton and it really doesn’t make any sense, that she can be backed at the same price to place, as Posh Trish can be backed to win.
In truth, there are plenty of others who can also be given a chance…
Sancta Simona and My Sister Sarah, look two strong contenders for Willie Mullins: whilst Sinoria is a mare on an upward trajectory, who I would expect to run very well.
5:30
I have to be honest, I ran out of time to assess this race properly - and whilst I do have a few half fancies, I don’t want to be tipping something that I’ve not fully researched…
As with the Pertemps final you have to be very fearful that Gordon Elliot has plotted one up here, in the shape of Measureofmydreams.
He finished third behind Minella Roccoa and Native River in the 2016 NH chase - and off a mark of 137 today, he could be thrown in.
He showed distinct promise on his comeback from injury at Fairyhouse last month - and the booking of Jamie Codd shows intent.
However, I really couldn’t entertain him at 9/2 (even less than Sire du Berlais !).
On first inspection, I was drawn to No Comment and Just a Sting, as both should have scope for improvement.
Of the pair, I would slightly prefer the chances of No Comment.
He is a classy horse, who ran well, to a point, in last seasons NH chase.
The other 2 that I briefly considered getting involved with, are Captain Chaos and Perfect Candidate.
I could certainly see the former running well - though I would have some concerns about him getting up the hill.
Perfect Candidate will have no issue with the hill, the question is smply whether his advancing years have caught up with him (he’s now 12).
On balance, I just didn’t feel sufficiently strongly about anything to warrant getting involved with the race.
If forced, I’d side with Cpatain Chaos, each way - and he might be worth a small play if you can get 25/1 and reasonable place terms…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:30 Vinndication 1pt win 8/1
Chel 2:50 Road to Respect 2pt win 9/2
Chel 3:30 Supasundae 1pt win 8/1
Chel 3:30 Sam Spinner 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Bouvreuil 0.5pt EW 25/1
Chel 4:50 Indefatigable 0.5pt EW 33/1
Chel 4:50 Elusive Belle 0.5pt win 16/1
Mentions
Chel 2:10 Sire du Berlais (S )
Chel 5:30 Captain Chaos EW
Review of the day
There was no joy with todays tips - which was disappointing, if not entirely surprising…
It always looked like being a tough day - and my high risk strategy didn’t pay off.
Most of the tips were speculative plays - the main exception being Sams Profile, in the opener.
I thought he had a good chance - and he ran a fair race.
He was still in there pitching at the second last, but he slipped slightly on landing after jumping the hurdle - and that was his race over.
The Worlds End was a very speculative play, against 3 strongly fancied opponents - but I hoped he would at least give us a decent run for our money.
Alas, that wasn’t really the case, as his jumping was hesitant throughout, and he was beaten a fair way from home.
The race was won in impressive style, by Topofthegame.
I could easily have put us on him, if he’d been any kind of price this morning.
However, 7/2 was as good as it got - and there seemed minimal margin in that.
His SP of 4/1 was a little better - and may have tempted me in - but it wasn’t an option when I was able to tip…
I took 2 against the field in the Coral Cup - and it’s fair to say that they ran contrasting races !
Killultagh Vic was a huge disappointment (having been weak in the market) and was never sighted.
Brio Conti on the other hand, tanked through the race, and arguably could have won.
However, he did a bit too much, too soon - and had little left for the final hill.
At Cheltenham, optimal distribution of energy is absolutely key.
He’s clearly still a well handicapped horse however, and I’ll not be at all surprised if he gains compensation at Aintree…
Altior managed to win the Champion chase - though it was a bit of a struggle !
He looked beaten jumping the last, but the horse has a rare desire to win - and it seemed almost inevitable that he would battle back, past Politologue and Sceau Royal, up the hill.
Any other horse would have lost - but Altior is something special.
Tiger Roll is also turning into something special…
I felt he had to be opposed in the cross country chase - but he cantered through the entire race and never looked remotely like getting beaten…
Auvergnat was a horrible late drifter (out to 15 on BF) - and ran accordingly.
Tea for Two on the other hand, was very well backed.
He was just starting to make his move, when he stumbled and unseated Lizzy Kelly.
I very much doubt he would have beaten Tiger Roll - but it would have been interesting to see how close he could have got…
As I said this morning, the Fred Winter looked a complete lottery - so it was a little surprising to see Band of Outlaws backed in to 7/2, at the off - though far less so, to then see him win comfortably !
It may be the Cheltenham festival - but that just means that the certainties carry even more money !
And that was also the case in the finale, where Envoi Allen was backed into 2/1 fav - and held off the 7/2 second fav.
In fairness, the winner did cost £400K - so I guess connections were keen to recoup some of their cash.
It was all a bit of a shame for Thyme Hill, who ran an absolute cracker for a 20/1 shot - but could only manage third place…
Hopefully tomorrow will deliver better.
TVB.
It always looked like being a tough day - and my high risk strategy didn’t pay off.
Most of the tips were speculative plays - the main exception being Sams Profile, in the opener.
I thought he had a good chance - and he ran a fair race.
He was still in there pitching at the second last, but he slipped slightly on landing after jumping the hurdle - and that was his race over.
The Worlds End was a very speculative play, against 3 strongly fancied opponents - but I hoped he would at least give us a decent run for our money.
Alas, that wasn’t really the case, as his jumping was hesitant throughout, and he was beaten a fair way from home.
The race was won in impressive style, by Topofthegame.
I could easily have put us on him, if he’d been any kind of price this morning.
However, 7/2 was as good as it got - and there seemed minimal margin in that.
His SP of 4/1 was a little better - and may have tempted me in - but it wasn’t an option when I was able to tip…
I took 2 against the field in the Coral Cup - and it’s fair to say that they ran contrasting races !
Killultagh Vic was a huge disappointment (having been weak in the market) and was never sighted.
Brio Conti on the other hand, tanked through the race, and arguably could have won.
However, he did a bit too much, too soon - and had little left for the final hill.
At Cheltenham, optimal distribution of energy is absolutely key.
He’s clearly still a well handicapped horse however, and I’ll not be at all surprised if he gains compensation at Aintree…
Altior managed to win the Champion chase - though it was a bit of a struggle !
He looked beaten jumping the last, but the horse has a rare desire to win - and it seemed almost inevitable that he would battle back, past Politologue and Sceau Royal, up the hill.
Any other horse would have lost - but Altior is something special.
Tiger Roll is also turning into something special…
I felt he had to be opposed in the cross country chase - but he cantered through the entire race and never looked remotely like getting beaten…
Auvergnat was a horrible late drifter (out to 15 on BF) - and ran accordingly.
Tea for Two on the other hand, was very well backed.
He was just starting to make his move, when he stumbled and unseated Lizzy Kelly.
I very much doubt he would have beaten Tiger Roll - but it would have been interesting to see how close he could have got…
As I said this morning, the Fred Winter looked a complete lottery - so it was a little surprising to see Band of Outlaws backed in to 7/2, at the off - though far less so, to then see him win comfortably !
It may be the Cheltenham festival - but that just means that the certainties carry even more money !
And that was also the case in the finale, where Envoi Allen was backed into 2/1 fav - and held off the 7/2 second fav.
In fairness, the winner did cost £400K - so I guess connections were keen to recoup some of their cash.
It was all a bit of a shame for Thyme Hill, who ran an absolute cracker for a 20/1 shot - but could only manage third place…
Hopefully tomorrow will deliver better.
TVB.
Daily write-up - Mar 13th (Cheltenham - Day 2)
Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival…
It wasn’t easy to figure out the exact state of the ground, yesterday…
The times for most of the races, weren’t too bad (suggesting conditions no worse than soft) - and this was backed up visually, in some of the races.
However, the post race jockey comments, tended to suggest it was borderline heavy - and things certainly looked pretty desperate in the last !
I guess it’s fair to say that the surface didn’t suit fast ground horses - and was a good deal softer than the ground that has been raced on for the past few months.
What happens to it from here however, remains in the lap of the weather gods… (with more rain forecast)
In terms of todays racing, then it’s another excellent day.
The feared destructive winds, haven’t materialised, so racing goes ahead as planned (probably !)
Altior is the headline act in the Champion chase - but there is a decent supporting card (as you would expect).
Wednesday tends to be the hardest day to find tips, as a few of the races don’t tend to lend themselves to betting.
That’s the case again today - and I’ve not forced things.
As a consequence, there are 7 tips on the day, across 5 races.
Ofcourse, I’ve also got views on the the days other races.
Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my other thoughts on the day…
Cheltenham
1:30
Despite a last time out defeat to Battleoverdoyen at Naas, early in January, I want to be with Sams Profile in this…
Superficially, there appears little reason why he should reverse the form today - but I’m optimistic he will.
For a start, Sams Profile is the younger horse and was having only his third run over hurdles, that day.
His inexperience seemed to catch him out early in the race, when his jumping was poor.
He gradually warmed to the task as the race progressed, and it says much for his ability that he still had every chance turning in.
However, he was hampered a couple of times, approaching the second last - and by the time he got into the clear, Battleoverdoyen had flown.
He ran on strongly to the line, taking a comfortable second placing - and I suspect he will improve significantly for the experience.
Whether that will enable him to reverse the form, remains to be seen - but I think he is a sporting bet to do so.
In truth, even if he can get the better of Battleoverdoyen this is still a strong field.
However, I have some doubts concerning the favourite, Champ - whilst the other main English challenger, Brewinupastorm, also looks vulnerable…
That said, there aren’t many I could comfortably eliminate, so Sams Profile could still have his work cut out.
However, I do very much like his trainer, Mouse Morris - and I get the feeling that Sams Profile is a very good horse.
Hopefully he will demonstrate that to be the case, this afternoon !
2:10
This race has got a similar shape to yesterday Champion hurdle, with 3 horses dominating the betting…
The market says that the winner will come from Delta Work; Santini or Topofthegame - and that may well be the case.
However, as yesterdays Champion demonstrated, almost anything can happen in a horse race - never mind a 3 mile novice chase, run on questionable ground !
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a risk on one of the outsiders - and I’ve opted to side with The Worlds End…
On official ratings, he is the joint best horse in the race, along with Delta Work and Topofthegame; he can also boast an impressive course win, back in December - so his credentials aren’t bad for a 25/1 shot…
On the flip side, there is a question mark over him, on soft ground - and he did disappoint last time out.
That was in the Kauto Star novice chase at Kempton, when he finished well behind both Topofthegame and Santini.
However he was sent off at just 6/1 that day - but didn’t appear to handle the track.
It strikes me as significant that he’s not been seen since then - and also that he returns, sporting first time cheek pieces.
As was the case 12 months ago, his trainer Tom George, seems to have his string in top form for the festival (he had a couple of big priced runners perform very well yesterday), and simply, I think the horse has been under-estimated by the market…
Of the ‘big 3’ then I would be least keen on Santini,
I’m sure the horse has huge talent - but his preparation has been far from ideal and I suspect that will ultimately catch him out today.
The question mark with Topofthegame, is his stamina - if he doesn’t settle early in the race.
Delta Work does look bomb proof - the question is simply whether he is good enough (he’s not beaten a great deal, in Ireland).
The official handicapper says he might be - but then again, so might The Worlds End !
At 10 times the price, the latter has to be worth a small risk…
2:40
There is a monster field of 25 for this - but I’m happy enough siding with just 2, in the shape of Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti.
Killultagh Vic is a former festival winner - who has also shown himself capable of operating at grade 1 level.
His festival win came in the 2015 Marin Pipe hurdle - and he followed that up next time, by beating Thistlecrack at Punchestown.
The following season, he was in the process of making up into a top class novice chaser - but a fall at Leopardstown derailed his career.
Despite that, he would have won the last years Irish Gold cup, if he hadn’t fallen at the last, when in the lead.
The bottom line with him, is that he is a grade 1 horse - when at his best.
There is a chance he might not be at his best today - but he runs off a mark of just 150, and if he is, I think he will win.
Certainly, at odds of 14/1, he is worth a risk…
The other one I want on side, is Brio Conti…
He was a winning Mention at Ascot, last time (one of 3 on the day - as I’m sure you all recall !).
I was put off tipping him that day, because Paul Nichols reckoned he would need the run.
That might have been the case - but it didn’t stop him from winning !
He has only been raised 5lb for the victory - and if Nichols was right and he did need the run, then I think he will go very close again today.
Certainly, he has form which suggests he could still be leniently rated off a mark of 146 - and his stable couldn’t be in better form…
As you would expect, in a race of this nature, there are plenty of others, for whom half cases could be made…
I thought Dancing on my Own looked very interesting - but the fancy prices on him were taken before the market had stabilised.
I would expect Vision des Flos to run well - but he may be a shade high in the weights: whilst Cracking Smart looks dangerous, for Gordon Elliot.
In truth, I could easily list a few more ‘dangers’ but in reality, I‘m happy that Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti have both got excellent chances in a very competitive race.
3:30
It’s always great to see a true champion performing - and there can be little doubt that Altior is a true champion.
Unbeaten in 17 races over obstacles, he will today, attempt to win at his fourth successive Cheltenham festival.
It’s quite possible, that at some point in the race, he will look in trouble: however, in all probability, that won’t be when as he powers up the final hill !
It says much, that Min looks, by some way, his biggest rival today.
However, that was also the case 12 months ago, when Altior dispatched him by 7 lengths - and also in in 2015 when he beat him by exactly the same margin, in the Supreme hurdle.
In truth, Altior looks bomb proof.
The only way he is likely to be beaten is if there is no pace in the race - or if he makes a catastrophic mistake (or finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time).
Saint Calvados and Hell’s Kitchen should ensure there is pace in the race: and whilst mistakes and bad luck are always possible, they are not things which I feel comfortable using as an argument, to take on any horse (and certainly not Altior !).
Hopefully he will just romp home - and we will be treated to the sight of a true champion, performing at the peak of his powers.
After all, that’s really what the Cheltenham festival should be about…
4:10
Admirable horse that he is, I feel that Tiger Roll has to be taken on at odds of 5/4, in this…
Of course, he won the corresponding race last year - and followed up in the Grand National - so his credentials are very strong.
However, with 30 fences to be jumped and almost 4 miles to travel, the element of ‘lottery’ in the race, means that it would be hard to support any horse at a price close to even money.
Instead, I’d rather side with Auvergnat and Tea for Two…
The former finished fourth in last years race - but has taken his form to a new level this season.
That’s courtesy of an emphatic win in the Paddy Power, at Leopardstown, at Christmas.
Auvergnat was massively impressive that day, suggesting that he may still be improving.
It’s interesting that connections have resisted running him again since then - and he looks very much, the one that Tiger Roll has to beat…
That said, I also want to take a risk on Tea for Two.
He’s not been in great form this season - but he is a proven grade 1 performer and is still only 10.
He’s won an Aintree Bowl - and been placed in a King George - and horses with that level of ability don’t tend to run in cross country races.
However, he is being targeted at the Grand National and connections reasonably think this will give him valuable experience.
He should handle the ground - and cope with the distance, so if he does take to the obstacles, I can see him running a very big race.
A few of the others can also be given half chances - so whatever, I don’t think this will be a cake walk for Tiger Roll...
4:50
I did intend to get involved with this race - but the more I look at it, the more it appears a complete minefield !
Maybe that shouldn't be too surprising, with 22 unexposed juvenile hurdlers.
I honestly think I could make quite a compelling case for at least half of them - and that’s too many…
Got Trumped was the one I nearly tipped - but he has little in hand of La Sorelita (she has been a Mention in the past).
More than that, jockey bookings suggest that La Sorelita is the lesser fancied of Willie Mullins pair, behind Ceil De Neige. But as he is making his stable debut, a lot of guesswork is required…
That’s also the case for Fox Pro (who makes his debut for Jane Williams) and Naturelle (who makes his UK debut for his French trainer).
All 3 could be anything - but equally, would be impossible to support…
More conventional form study could lead you to one of Joseph O’Briens 3 runners - but it would be hard to choose between them: Similarly, Gordon Elliott runs 3 - but trying to figure out his number one, is no easy task…
Fanfare du Seuil is yet another one that needs adding to the mix - and I could still have missed the winner !
In short, the race is an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum - and in the circumstances, almost certainly best just watched !
5:30
After due consideration, I’ve decided to get involved with this race.
The issue I have, is that there is very little from to work with - so a lot of guesswork is required.
On the flip side, that means that the market could easily have got things wrong - so there could be some decent value available…
And I think that’s the case with Thyme Hill.
He’s run just twice in his life: winning at Worcester and the finishing runner up to Master Debonair in the listed bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting.
He ran really well that day, staying on strongly, having taken the (unfavourable) inside route, round the home turn.
It’s interesting that connections have saved him since then - and from a pure value perspective, it’s impossible to understand why he is twice the price of the horse who finished just a neck in front of him…
Ofcourse, there is a danger that the form of that race won’t be strong enough to win today - but that’s true for all of the runners…
Envoi Allen and Blue Sari represent Elliott and Mullins - and appear to be the pick of the Irish contingent.
However, there is no value in their respective prices…
That’s now also the case, for the Paul Nichols trained, Ask for Glory.
He held some appeal at a double figure price, on the back of a bloodless debut win at Chepstow - but at 7/1, there is no margin in his current price.
Sempo is the final one worthy of a mention, for Joseph O’Brien and Derek O Connor - and it would certainly be no surprise to see him run a big race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:30 Sams Profile 1pt win 11/1
Chel 2:10 The Worlds End 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 2:50 Killultagh Vic 0.5pt win 14/1
Chel 2:50 Brio Conti 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 4:10 Tea for Two 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 4:10 Auvergnat 0.5pt win 8/1
Chel 5:30 Thyme Hill 0.5pt win 22/1
Mentions
Chel 4:50 Got Trumped (O )
It wasn’t easy to figure out the exact state of the ground, yesterday…
The times for most of the races, weren’t too bad (suggesting conditions no worse than soft) - and this was backed up visually, in some of the races.
However, the post race jockey comments, tended to suggest it was borderline heavy - and things certainly looked pretty desperate in the last !
I guess it’s fair to say that the surface didn’t suit fast ground horses - and was a good deal softer than the ground that has been raced on for the past few months.
What happens to it from here however, remains in the lap of the weather gods… (with more rain forecast)
In terms of todays racing, then it’s another excellent day.
The feared destructive winds, haven’t materialised, so racing goes ahead as planned (probably !)
Altior is the headline act in the Champion chase - but there is a decent supporting card (as you would expect).
Wednesday tends to be the hardest day to find tips, as a few of the races don’t tend to lend themselves to betting.
That’s the case again today - and I’ve not forced things.
As a consequence, there are 7 tips on the day, across 5 races.
Ofcourse, I’ve also got views on the the days other races.
Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my other thoughts on the day…
Cheltenham
1:30
Despite a last time out defeat to Battleoverdoyen at Naas, early in January, I want to be with Sams Profile in this…
Superficially, there appears little reason why he should reverse the form today - but I’m optimistic he will.
For a start, Sams Profile is the younger horse and was having only his third run over hurdles, that day.
His inexperience seemed to catch him out early in the race, when his jumping was poor.
He gradually warmed to the task as the race progressed, and it says much for his ability that he still had every chance turning in.
However, he was hampered a couple of times, approaching the second last - and by the time he got into the clear, Battleoverdoyen had flown.
He ran on strongly to the line, taking a comfortable second placing - and I suspect he will improve significantly for the experience.
Whether that will enable him to reverse the form, remains to be seen - but I think he is a sporting bet to do so.
In truth, even if he can get the better of Battleoverdoyen this is still a strong field.
However, I have some doubts concerning the favourite, Champ - whilst the other main English challenger, Brewinupastorm, also looks vulnerable…
That said, there aren’t many I could comfortably eliminate, so Sams Profile could still have his work cut out.
However, I do very much like his trainer, Mouse Morris - and I get the feeling that Sams Profile is a very good horse.
Hopefully he will demonstrate that to be the case, this afternoon !
2:10
This race has got a similar shape to yesterday Champion hurdle, with 3 horses dominating the betting…
The market says that the winner will come from Delta Work; Santini or Topofthegame - and that may well be the case.
However, as yesterdays Champion demonstrated, almost anything can happen in a horse race - never mind a 3 mile novice chase, run on questionable ground !
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a risk on one of the outsiders - and I’ve opted to side with The Worlds End…
On official ratings, he is the joint best horse in the race, along with Delta Work and Topofthegame; he can also boast an impressive course win, back in December - so his credentials aren’t bad for a 25/1 shot…
On the flip side, there is a question mark over him, on soft ground - and he did disappoint last time out.
That was in the Kauto Star novice chase at Kempton, when he finished well behind both Topofthegame and Santini.
However he was sent off at just 6/1 that day - but didn’t appear to handle the track.
It strikes me as significant that he’s not been seen since then - and also that he returns, sporting first time cheek pieces.
As was the case 12 months ago, his trainer Tom George, seems to have his string in top form for the festival (he had a couple of big priced runners perform very well yesterday), and simply, I think the horse has been under-estimated by the market…
Of the ‘big 3’ then I would be least keen on Santini,
I’m sure the horse has huge talent - but his preparation has been far from ideal and I suspect that will ultimately catch him out today.
The question mark with Topofthegame, is his stamina - if he doesn’t settle early in the race.
Delta Work does look bomb proof - the question is simply whether he is good enough (he’s not beaten a great deal, in Ireland).
The official handicapper says he might be - but then again, so might The Worlds End !
At 10 times the price, the latter has to be worth a small risk…
2:40
There is a monster field of 25 for this - but I’m happy enough siding with just 2, in the shape of Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti.
Killultagh Vic is a former festival winner - who has also shown himself capable of operating at grade 1 level.
His festival win came in the 2015 Marin Pipe hurdle - and he followed that up next time, by beating Thistlecrack at Punchestown.
The following season, he was in the process of making up into a top class novice chaser - but a fall at Leopardstown derailed his career.
Despite that, he would have won the last years Irish Gold cup, if he hadn’t fallen at the last, when in the lead.
The bottom line with him, is that he is a grade 1 horse - when at his best.
There is a chance he might not be at his best today - but he runs off a mark of just 150, and if he is, I think he will win.
Certainly, at odds of 14/1, he is worth a risk…
The other one I want on side, is Brio Conti…
He was a winning Mention at Ascot, last time (one of 3 on the day - as I’m sure you all recall !).
I was put off tipping him that day, because Paul Nichols reckoned he would need the run.
That might have been the case - but it didn’t stop him from winning !
He has only been raised 5lb for the victory - and if Nichols was right and he did need the run, then I think he will go very close again today.
Certainly, he has form which suggests he could still be leniently rated off a mark of 146 - and his stable couldn’t be in better form…
As you would expect, in a race of this nature, there are plenty of others, for whom half cases could be made…
I thought Dancing on my Own looked very interesting - but the fancy prices on him were taken before the market had stabilised.
I would expect Vision des Flos to run well - but he may be a shade high in the weights: whilst Cracking Smart looks dangerous, for Gordon Elliot.
In truth, I could easily list a few more ‘dangers’ but in reality, I‘m happy that Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti have both got excellent chances in a very competitive race.
3:30
It’s always great to see a true champion performing - and there can be little doubt that Altior is a true champion.
Unbeaten in 17 races over obstacles, he will today, attempt to win at his fourth successive Cheltenham festival.
It’s quite possible, that at some point in the race, he will look in trouble: however, in all probability, that won’t be when as he powers up the final hill !
It says much, that Min looks, by some way, his biggest rival today.
However, that was also the case 12 months ago, when Altior dispatched him by 7 lengths - and also in in 2015 when he beat him by exactly the same margin, in the Supreme hurdle.
In truth, Altior looks bomb proof.
The only way he is likely to be beaten is if there is no pace in the race - or if he makes a catastrophic mistake (or finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time).
Saint Calvados and Hell’s Kitchen should ensure there is pace in the race: and whilst mistakes and bad luck are always possible, they are not things which I feel comfortable using as an argument, to take on any horse (and certainly not Altior !).
Hopefully he will just romp home - and we will be treated to the sight of a true champion, performing at the peak of his powers.
After all, that’s really what the Cheltenham festival should be about…
4:10
Admirable horse that he is, I feel that Tiger Roll has to be taken on at odds of 5/4, in this…
Of course, he won the corresponding race last year - and followed up in the Grand National - so his credentials are very strong.
However, with 30 fences to be jumped and almost 4 miles to travel, the element of ‘lottery’ in the race, means that it would be hard to support any horse at a price close to even money.
Instead, I’d rather side with Auvergnat and Tea for Two…
The former finished fourth in last years race - but has taken his form to a new level this season.
That’s courtesy of an emphatic win in the Paddy Power, at Leopardstown, at Christmas.
Auvergnat was massively impressive that day, suggesting that he may still be improving.
It’s interesting that connections have resisted running him again since then - and he looks very much, the one that Tiger Roll has to beat…
That said, I also want to take a risk on Tea for Two.
He’s not been in great form this season - but he is a proven grade 1 performer and is still only 10.
He’s won an Aintree Bowl - and been placed in a King George - and horses with that level of ability don’t tend to run in cross country races.
However, he is being targeted at the Grand National and connections reasonably think this will give him valuable experience.
He should handle the ground - and cope with the distance, so if he does take to the obstacles, I can see him running a very big race.
A few of the others can also be given half chances - so whatever, I don’t think this will be a cake walk for Tiger Roll...
4:50
I did intend to get involved with this race - but the more I look at it, the more it appears a complete minefield !
Maybe that shouldn't be too surprising, with 22 unexposed juvenile hurdlers.
I honestly think I could make quite a compelling case for at least half of them - and that’s too many…
Got Trumped was the one I nearly tipped - but he has little in hand of La Sorelita (she has been a Mention in the past).
More than that, jockey bookings suggest that La Sorelita is the lesser fancied of Willie Mullins pair, behind Ceil De Neige. But as he is making his stable debut, a lot of guesswork is required…
That’s also the case for Fox Pro (who makes his debut for Jane Williams) and Naturelle (who makes his UK debut for his French trainer).
All 3 could be anything - but equally, would be impossible to support…
More conventional form study could lead you to one of Joseph O’Briens 3 runners - but it would be hard to choose between them: Similarly, Gordon Elliott runs 3 - but trying to figure out his number one, is no easy task…
Fanfare du Seuil is yet another one that needs adding to the mix - and I could still have missed the winner !
In short, the race is an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum - and in the circumstances, almost certainly best just watched !
5:30
After due consideration, I’ve decided to get involved with this race.
The issue I have, is that there is very little from to work with - so a lot of guesswork is required.
On the flip side, that means that the market could easily have got things wrong - so there could be some decent value available…
And I think that’s the case with Thyme Hill.
He’s run just twice in his life: winning at Worcester and the finishing runner up to Master Debonair in the listed bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting.
He ran really well that day, staying on strongly, having taken the (unfavourable) inside route, round the home turn.
It’s interesting that connections have saved him since then - and from a pure value perspective, it’s impossible to understand why he is twice the price of the horse who finished just a neck in front of him…
Ofcourse, there is a danger that the form of that race won’t be strong enough to win today - but that’s true for all of the runners…
Envoi Allen and Blue Sari represent Elliott and Mullins - and appear to be the pick of the Irish contingent.
However, there is no value in their respective prices…
That’s now also the case, for the Paul Nichols trained, Ask for Glory.
He held some appeal at a double figure price, on the back of a bloodless debut win at Chepstow - but at 7/1, there is no margin in his current price.
Sempo is the final one worthy of a mention, for Joseph O’Brien and Derek O Connor - and it would certainly be no surprise to see him run a big race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:30 Sams Profile 1pt win 11/1
Chel 2:10 The Worlds End 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 2:50 Killultagh Vic 0.5pt win 14/1
Chel 2:50 Brio Conti 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 4:10 Tea for Two 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 4:10 Auvergnat 0.5pt win 8/1
Chel 5:30 Thyme Hill 0.5pt win 22/1
Mentions
Chel 4:50 Got Trumped (O )
Review of the day
After 8 years previewing the festival (and considerably more just watching it !), it seems ridiculous that I can still be shocked, watching events unfold - but year after year, that remains the case…
The heavy rain introduced an element of lottery to the days proceedings - and boy did the gods of luck, revel in that !
Drama unfolded, race after race - with each subsequent race seemingly determined to upstage its predecessor…
Relatively, speaking things started quite calmly, with an easy win for Klassical Dancer in the Supreme.
I certainly could have given him a chance - but equally, couldn’t have backed him at 5/1.
However, he looked transformed by the softer ground - and was a very easy winner.
Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet ran excellent races to finish second and third for Olly Murphy.
I could have been interested in the latter - but he needs decent ground (which I wasn’t sure he was going to get).
Next up it was the Arkle - and the first tip of the day, in the shape of Kalashinkov.
I have to admit that I felt he had a real chance - and the early fall of Glen Forsa, plus Lalors lack of interest, left me feeling very optimistic.
Kalashnikov himself was jumping and travelling really well - when Ornua fell directly in front of him and brought him down.
It was so unlucky - the horse was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.
In fairness, Duc des Genevries subsequently went on and absolutely hacked up - but it’s hard to think that Kalashnikov wouldn’t have finished at least second - and with a bit of luck, who knows…
It can be a tough game at times…
Next it was the Ultima handicap - and why Minella Rocco took his chance, I’ve no idea…
He had drifted to 28 on BF at the off - never moved out of the last 3 - and was pulled up well before half way.
The word ‘disappointing’ doesn’t really do it justice !
The race was won by the 2 ‘mud larks’ who I identified this morning - with Beware the Bear getting the better of Vintage Cloud…
Next it was the big one - the Champion hurdle,
It had been billed as a 3 corner affair: between Buveur D’air, Apples Jade and Laurina - but that’s not how it panned out !
In a change of tactics, Melon raced prominently and never gave Apples Jade a moments peace.
It was soon clear that she wasn’t going to be winning.
Therefore, when Buveur D’air stepped at a hurdle along the back straight and came down, the race looked to be at Laurina's mercy.
However, she wasn’t up to the job - and instead it was the unheralded Espoir Dallen who took advantage and won in convincing fashion.
You can’t take anything away from him and time may show him to be a very good champion - however, he was left with literally nothing to beat this afternoon…
Next it was the mares hurdle - in which I felt Benie des Dieux was vulnerable.
Ultimately, I was proven right - but only because she took a fall at the last, when looking sure to win.
I tipped Momella in the race - but she ran disappointingly.
I could easily have tipped Roksana - but a price this morning of 7/1, was too short.
I may have been more tempted by her SP of 10/1 - but that’s immaterial…
The penultimate race of the days was the novice handicap chase.
I was quite keen on A Plus Tard, as I felt he might be a graded horse in a handicap.
That theory had been given more weight earlier in the afternoon, when Duc des Genievres won the Arkle - as A plus Tard had beaten him on his penultimate outing.
And sure enough, A Plus Tard was indeed a graded horse in a handicap - and probably a grade 1 horse !
Rarely will you see a handicap won more easily.
The winning distance at the line, was 16 lengths - but it could easily have been 30…
The NH chase was the final race of the day - and it ended up a complete war.
Horse after horse made mistakes and fell - or just ran out of steam.
Chef des Obeaux had already made one chunking mistake, when he was eventually stopped in his tracks, by the fall of one of his rivals.
18 horses set out - but just 4 made it home - with Le Breuil getting the better of a protracted struggle with Discorama.
You won’t see many more attritional contests….
As dramatic opening days go - today was certainly up there with the best of them !
TVB.
The heavy rain introduced an element of lottery to the days proceedings - and boy did the gods of luck, revel in that !
Drama unfolded, race after race - with each subsequent race seemingly determined to upstage its predecessor…
Relatively, speaking things started quite calmly, with an easy win for Klassical Dancer in the Supreme.
I certainly could have given him a chance - but equally, couldn’t have backed him at 5/1.
However, he looked transformed by the softer ground - and was a very easy winner.
Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet ran excellent races to finish second and third for Olly Murphy.
I could have been interested in the latter - but he needs decent ground (which I wasn’t sure he was going to get).
Next up it was the Arkle - and the first tip of the day, in the shape of Kalashinkov.
I have to admit that I felt he had a real chance - and the early fall of Glen Forsa, plus Lalors lack of interest, left me feeling very optimistic.
Kalashnikov himself was jumping and travelling really well - when Ornua fell directly in front of him and brought him down.
It was so unlucky - the horse was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.
In fairness, Duc des Genevries subsequently went on and absolutely hacked up - but it’s hard to think that Kalashnikov wouldn’t have finished at least second - and with a bit of luck, who knows…
It can be a tough game at times…
Next it was the Ultima handicap - and why Minella Rocco took his chance, I’ve no idea…
He had drifted to 28 on BF at the off - never moved out of the last 3 - and was pulled up well before half way.
The word ‘disappointing’ doesn’t really do it justice !
The race was won by the 2 ‘mud larks’ who I identified this morning - with Beware the Bear getting the better of Vintage Cloud…
Next it was the big one - the Champion hurdle,
It had been billed as a 3 corner affair: between Buveur D’air, Apples Jade and Laurina - but that’s not how it panned out !
In a change of tactics, Melon raced prominently and never gave Apples Jade a moments peace.
It was soon clear that she wasn’t going to be winning.
Therefore, when Buveur D’air stepped at a hurdle along the back straight and came down, the race looked to be at Laurina's mercy.
However, she wasn’t up to the job - and instead it was the unheralded Espoir Dallen who took advantage and won in convincing fashion.
You can’t take anything away from him and time may show him to be a very good champion - however, he was left with literally nothing to beat this afternoon…
Next it was the mares hurdle - in which I felt Benie des Dieux was vulnerable.
Ultimately, I was proven right - but only because she took a fall at the last, when looking sure to win.
I tipped Momella in the race - but she ran disappointingly.
I could easily have tipped Roksana - but a price this morning of 7/1, was too short.
I may have been more tempted by her SP of 10/1 - but that’s immaterial…
The penultimate race of the days was the novice handicap chase.
I was quite keen on A Plus Tard, as I felt he might be a graded horse in a handicap.
That theory had been given more weight earlier in the afternoon, when Duc des Genievres won the Arkle - as A plus Tard had beaten him on his penultimate outing.
And sure enough, A Plus Tard was indeed a graded horse in a handicap - and probably a grade 1 horse !
Rarely will you see a handicap won more easily.
The winning distance at the line, was 16 lengths - but it could easily have been 30…
The NH chase was the final race of the day - and it ended up a complete war.
Horse after horse made mistakes and fell - or just ran out of steam.
Chef des Obeaux had already made one chunking mistake, when he was eventually stopped in his tracks, by the fall of one of his rivals.
18 horses set out - but just 4 made it home - with Le Breuil getting the better of a protracted struggle with Discorama.
You won’t see many more attritional contests….
As dramatic opening days go - today was certainly up there with the best of them !
TVB.
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