Monday 18 March 2019

Review of the day

It ended up a bit of a disappointing afternoon - despite me tipping a winner !

That was because the winner was the shortest price selection on the day - and the winnings from her, didn’t cover the losses from the other tips.

In truth though, that wasn’t the disappointing aspect…

As always, I spent a lot of time yesterday studying the form for the feature races - and as those who read the write-up will testify, I was in the right ball park for just about every race.

However, they were all competitive contests - and rather than spreading the risk a little, I put all of my eggs in one basket for each of the races - and generally, picked the wrong basket !

In my defence it’s not always easy to put up the right horses at the time I tip, as I demand some margin in the price - and at 9:00, that’s often not there…

A perfect example of that, was the handicap hurdle at Newbury.

I was interested in Flying Tiger and Crooks Peak in that particular race.
Despite being heavily backed overnight, Flying Tiger was still an 8/1 shot this morning, which I considered acceptable: whereas Crooks Peak was a 3/1 shot, which I didn’t !

However, come the off, Flying Tiger had been backed in to a credibly believable 7/2 - and on the back of that, Crooks Peak had drifted out to 11/2.

At those prices, the tips would have been different - but that was never an option for me…

As it transpired, both horses travelled very strongly through the race - and looked to have it between them approaching the final flight.
However, Flying Tiger got the hurdle all wrong - and lost his momentum, whereas Crooks Peak jumped it well and battled on for a tenacious win…

My ‘short list’ would also have hit on the winner of the 2 previous Newbury races - but again, I opted for just one bite of the cherry.

In the veterans race, I opted for what proved to be another very well backed horse, in the shape of Shanroe Santos.
However, he didn’t have the back class of either Theatre Guide or Caroles Destrier - and when the former blew a winning chance with a dreadful mistake at the last, the latter took advantage…

In the next race I went with Nightfly but she never featured - whilst the 3 'dangers', Valdez, Javert and San Bendito filled 3 of the first 4 places, with the last named coming home in front…

In fairness, I didn’t short-list the winner of the Newbury opener, as I only nominated Betameche as a danger to Ritual of Senses = and he finished second.

Ritual of Senses himself, travelled really strongly to the third last - but then didn’t get home (suggesting that he is not fully recovered from whatever kept him off the course for a couple of years).

Over at Doncaster, Brian Boranha race a sound race in the feature Grimthorpe chase - but lacked a bit of pace when the tempo quickened…
I have no ‘complaints’ about him !

And finally, there was the day’s winner !

Papagana also lacks pace - but when you are being stepped up in trip and there is a sound gallop, that doesn’t tend to matter too much.

She was never travelling particularly well - but whilst she was in touch, I knew that she had a good chance.
And sure enough, as one by one, her rivals also came under pressure, she kept on responding and it soon became clear that she was going to take a bit of beating.

Danse Idol tried to challenge after the last - but Papagana always had her measure and ultimately was a comfortable winner.

At least her win saved the day from being a complete write-off - as I honestly don’t think that would have been deserved…

TVB.

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