There has been some serous rain around this week…
After months of virtual draught, no one can say it wasn’t due - or indeed needed - but the timing is poor.
When it rains on race day - or the evening before - it’s nearly impossible to judge the effect on the ground, until it is too late.
In fairness, we do have a reasonable idea of the impact it’s had on the Sandown going - because they raced there yesterday and it looked pretty holding.
However, relatively speaking, we’re in the dark with regard to the other 3 tracks - and of course, to Cheltenham..!
Expect me to be going on about it quite a bit for the next week or so - apologies in advance :)
As for today: then quality action is thin on the ground.
The days feature meeting takes place as Sandown: but a card built around a bumper and 2 ferocious handicaps, is unlikely to be particularly punter friendly !
I’ve only managed to find one tip there…
With no realistic options at Hereford or Gowran, the only other place for me to look was Ayr - and I managed to find a second tip there.
It’s not much of a haul for a Saturday - but, as you are all aware, it’s really not a normal Saturday !
If one of the tips can manage to come home in front, I’m sure you’ll be happy enough.
Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other main races…
Sandown
1:50
Whilst there was a temptation to get involved with this race, the reality is: there are 18 unexposed runners - virtually all with significant scope for improvement - and ultimately, almost any result is possible !
There will be enough handicaps like that next week, without me needing to take on one today !
For what it’s worth, the 3 I was most interested in, were Garretstown, Champagne Well and Golden Whiskey.
Garretstown looks like a very classy horse - though whether he will be suited by bottom-less conditions, is a different matter.
I don’t think the ground will worry Golden Whiskey - but he looks very immature, so both the nature of the race and the Sandown hill, could cause him a problem.
By default, Champagne Well is the one of greatest interest - and he’s fairly priced at 16/1 - but there are just too many dangers in the race, for me to want to tip him…
I could easily list half a dozen more, who could be of interest - but even then, I wouldn’t be confident I would have included the winner !
It should be a fascinating race to watch - and many of the runners will be worth following over fences, next season - but it’s not really a (serious) betting contest…
2:25
I said last Saturday, when I tipped Papagana, that if I had been up to date with the eye catchers in the forum, she would have been one - and the same is true of Malaya, today…
In truth, that’s not that big a statement, as she caught the eye of many, with her last time out run behind Brio Conte (yet another eye catcher !).
That was in a 2m4f handicap at Ascot, and Malaya travelled really strongly through the race - but was put under minimal pressure in the closing stages.
To an extent, that was under-standable. She had fallen on her 2 previous outings and I’m sure that Harry Cobden didn’t want to put her on the floor again, and completely shatter her confidence.
Her therefore allowed her to pop the final 2 hurdles and jog home !
She still managed to finish fourth - beaten just over 5 lengths - and it’s a little surprising that the handicapper reacted by dropping her rating by a pound.
In truth, she was well handicapped even before he did that.
She comfortably beat Eragon de Chanay at Ascot last March - and that one is now 9lb higher.
Malaya meanwhile, runs from a mark just 3lb higher today…
After the Ascot win, her next 2 runs were at Grade 1 level - suggesting Paul Nichols thinks quite a bit of her !
I don’t think she’ll have an issue with todays ground - or dropping back to 2 miles.
She faces some decent opponents - but you’d expect that in a £75K race.
Call me Lord is the one I fear most - because he’s potentially a graded performer in a handicap. He is also a Sandown specialist - who relishes heavy ground !
On the flip side, he has to give nearly 2 stone to Malaya - and 2 miles is now arguably on the short side for him (he ran over 3 miles, last time out).
Chti Balco is also of moderate interest, at a big price - but more from a back to lay in-running perspective (he’s well handicapped - but is also very exposed).
3:00
It’s very unusual (almost unique !) to have a bumper as a feature race on a Saturday card - particularly, one restricted to mares !
Even more than the 1:50 race, this isn’t a contest you can really bet in - because most of the runners have huge scope for improvement.
Silver Forever and Whitehotchillifilli head the market - and that may well be correct.
However, it was hard not to be taken by the debut effort of Mystic Dreamer, behind the former, at Ascot - and even on worse terms today, she holds some appeal at around 8/1.
Eyes Right finished fourth in the same race - and whilst on the book, she shouldn’t be able to reverse the form, she is the youngest runner in the field (and therefore the one with the most potential for improvement).
That said, I’m not convinced that she will relish very soft ground…
Clearly, it has to be a watching race (officially speaking) - with Mystic Dreamer probably providing the best option for those who would like a small involvement.
3:35
I tipped Ami Desbois when he was narrowly touched off over course and distance, last time out - and I considered tipping him again today…
Certainly, I don’t think he is badly handicapped - even off a 4lb higher mark - and he will have no issue with todays conditions.
This is also a drop in class - and he’s a big enough horse to cope with a weight imposition of 11st13lb….
The issue is simply the opposition: Whilst I expect Ami Desbois to run well, I have a feeling that one of his opponents will beat him.
The trouble is, I can’t figure out which one !
Commodore is the obvious one, for Venetia - but it might not be him…
I could make half (or at least quarter !) cases for at least 4 of the runners - and that stops me from supporting Ami Desbois.
I’m sure he will run his race - and at 5/1, he would be a good EW ‘bet to nothing’, if you like that kind of thing.
However, officially speaking, he’s just a Mention…
Ayr
3:20
Saint Leo has only run twice in the UK - and he has caught my eye both times…
The first occasion, was his debut at Carlisle, back in November.
I picked him out in the daily write-up that day, as a horse to be interested in this season - and he showed sufficient in that race, to ensure he remained firmly on my radar.
His next run - and only subsequent one - was in the Castleford chase at Wetherby, on Boxing day.
He travelled trough that race like a class horse - just lacking the change of pace to mount a big challenge.
I’m sure he will be at his peak today - and he has been dropped to a mark of 135 (from an initial mark 10lb higher), which seems very fair.
I think his key requirement is soft ground - and a fast pace - and he should get both this afternoon…
I could tell you that the likes of Granville Island, Forest des Aigles and Clan Legend, will find the trip too short; whilst Charmant has possibly passed his peak.
Tontos Spirit and Treshnish should run their races - but I’ll be staggered if they can cope with Saint Leo, if he’s as good as I think.
I felt similarly about Overland Express a few weeks back - and tragedy struck for him, just as he was about to mount his challenge.
Nothing is every guaranteed in this game - but all thing being equal, I’ll be extremely disappointed if Saint Leo doesn’t win this afternoon.
4:30
If I could be sure that the ground at Ayr was going to be heavy, I would tip One for Harry in this.
However, the official description is currently ‘soft’ - and whilst I believe there is rain around - and so it might well get worse, I would be guessing…
If you are watching and the ground does look to be desperate, then One for Harry will be worthy of support.
Certainly he is now on a very competitive handicap mark - and the booking of Danny McMenamin, to take off a further 7lb, just adds to his appeal.
It’s the right trip - and the course is fine - but up against some tough rivals - now that he’s at the veteran stage, he will need heavy ground to swing things in his favour…
Of his rivals, then Buster Valentine and Better Getalong, look the 2 most likely to take advantage, if One for Harry doesn’t get ideal conditions.
I wouldn’t particularly want to split the pair, as the former is nearly impossible to get a proper handle on….
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Sand 2:25 Malaya 1pt win 11/2
Ayr 3:20 Saint Leo 2pt win 4/1
Mentions
Sand 1:50 Champagne Well (O )
Sand 3:00 Mystic Dancer (S )
Sand 3:35 Ami Desbois (O )
Ayr 4:30 One for Harry (C )
Dobbers
Sand 2:25 Chti Balco
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