The action will switch to the new course this afternoon, so all of the races will be run on fresh ground.
It looked to be riding just on the soft side yesterday - and it shouldn’t be any worse today.
Looking at yesterdays results, with the final 4 races all won by short priced favourites, I was always going to struggle,
My hopes are higher for today.
Historically, Thursdays races tend to have the best betting shape.
Ofcourse, even if opportunities exist, then they still need to be converted - and for that to happen, we’ll need a bit of luck.
Fingers crossed !
I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day (including an ante-post one).
I could easily have issued a few more - but I’ve declined to take on 2 of the big field handicaps.
I’ve still got views on them, however - in addition to the rationale behind the days tips…
Cheltenham
1:30
For a few months now, the market for this race has been dominated by Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation.
They have already met twice this year - and there has been precious little between them.
On the first occasion, Lostintransation got back up to pip an idling Defi Du Seuil; whilst on the second meeting, Defi was delivered later by Barry Geraghty and managed to gain his revenge.
I suspect there will be little between the pair again this afternoon - and they definitely set the standard for the race - but I’m hopeful that Vinndication will be able to get the better of them…
On first viewing, that might seem unlikely as he was comfortably beaten by them both last time out at Sandown.
However, as we’ve already seen this week, Sandown and Cheltenham present very different tests - and Vinndication was sent off 11/8 favourite that day.
His price was down to the fact that he was, until then, unbeaten over obstacles.
More than that, he had showed very good form - and a really willing attitude.
There was nothing wrong with his attitude at Sandown - and ultimately he was only beaten 3 lengths.
In a way, it’s still a little surprising that he is taking on the 2 horses who beat him, when the initial feeling seemed to be that he would benefit from a step up in trip.
However, his trainer has been very bullish about his chances, following some strong recent home work - and ultimately, 3 lengths isn’t a huge distance to recover.
Outside of the ‘big 3’, then there is a strong challenge from Ireland - and in particular the stable of Willie Mullins.
Real Steal looks to be his number one contender - and he has won well on his two most recent outings.
However, he had limitations over hurdles - and also fell on his chasing debut.
He will need to be improving fast, if he is to take care of the English horses.
That’s also true for Voix du Reve - though he may benefit from a step up in distance.
The mare, Pravalaguna, has a chance; as does the Gordon Elliott trained Mengli Khan - in short, it’s quite an open race.
That said, I’ll be disappointed if Vinndication doesn’t run really well - and with his battling attitude, whatever beats him, is likely to know it’s been in a race.
2:10
The presence of Sire du Berlais, makes this a tough race to play in…
He stayed on well to finish fourth in last seasons Martin Pipe hurdle, when running from a 2lb higher mark.
He’s only run 3 times since then, most recently when given a masterful ride by Davy, to finish sixth in the Leopardstown the qualifier for this series.
It’s necessary to finish in the first 6 in one of the qualifiers in order to make it into the final - and Davy squeezed him into precisely that position, with the accuracy of a trained marksman !
There is little doubt the horse has been targeted at this race - and connections have a well handicapped horse, who could still be improving,
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is another tell tale sign - and he’s clearly going to take a lot of beating.
The issue is the price: He’s 5/1 in a 24 runner handicap.
I guess I would have less of an issue with that, if he had the actual form to match the price - but it’s more about reading between the lines…
Ultimately, I would expect the market to tell.
11/2 is tight, but he could easily go off a point or two shorter.
If he does, then I doubt you will need to look anywhere else for the winner…
Of the others, then I was quite interested in Abolitionist, for Dr Newland: however he was tipped in a couple of places yesterday afternoon - and the 25/1 available early, soon became 16/1.
I would expect him to run well - but there isn’t too much value left in his price.
2:50
I’m pretty keen on Road to Respect in this.
Partially because I think he’s the best horse in the race: and partially because I think the race will be run to suit him…
In terms of pure ability, then he is the joint highest rated horse in the race, along with Frodon.
More than that, he has earnt his rating, via a series of big efforts in top class races.
He was runner up last time out, in the Irish Gold cup; and that followed a third place in the grade 1 Savills chase at Christmas, when the race didn’t pan out well for him.
He has also got excellent festival form.
He hacked up in the Plate, a couple of seasons back - and then finished fourth in last years Gold Cup.
That race was run on ground softer than he would like, but he was still going as well as anything, at the top of the hill, before his stamina ebbed away up the home straight.
Cutting him back in trip today, looks a smart move - and dropping him a touch in grade, could prove crucial.
That said, this is a tough race - and he faces some worthy opponents.
However 2 of his main rivals, are habitual front runners - and I think that with help Road to Respect as much as it will hinder them.
Both Monalee and Frodon need to lead - and that’s not going to be possible !
In fact, they might find themselves both under pressure from Un de Sceaux - so there really could be a pace burn up.
Such a scenario will suit Road to Respect perfectly, as he likes to travel in behind horses…
In the circumstances, it could mean that Footpad is his biggest danger.
He looked a world beater as a novice last season - but just hasn’t looked the same horse this campaign.
In fairness, he’s only run twice this season, so it’s a bit early to be writing him off; however, there is also a chance that his novice of last year, flattered him…
Of the outsiders, then last years winner, Balco des Flos, looks by far the most dangerous.
However, he has been disappointing this season, so will need to bounce back to his very best - and even if that happens, he might still not be good enough to beat Road to respect…
There is little doubt in my mind that Road to Respect will take a world of beating in this - provided he gets that bit of luck which you always need.
Here’s hoping !
3:30
Paisley Park is being touted as a certainty in this - but I’m not so sure…
Don’t get me wrong, he’s been massively impressive in his races this season - and fully deserves to be at the head of the market for todays race.
However, he’s been on the go since October, and I wonder whether he will still be at his peak this afternoon.
His profile reminds me of that of Unowhatimeanharry, when he ran in the race a couple of seasons back - and he got beaten…
The tricky part, is finding one to beat him…
Faugheen is second favourite - but he’s now 11 and comes here on the back of a mother and father of a fall.
I suspect he is more likely to get pulled up (and retired) than he is to win…
The most obvious one to take advantage if Paisley Park isn’t at his peak, is Supasundae.
He finished runner up in the race 12 months ago - just outsprinted in the finish, by Penhill.
It helped his case that there wasn’t much pace on in last years race - but that may be the case again this afternoon.
There is a chance that Ruby will try and dictate things on Faugheen (which would make him dangerous) - though I suspect he will be harried up front by Sam Spinner and Nautical Nitwit.
I put up Sam Spinner as an ante post tip, back in November.
He was massively disappointing on his first 2 runs this season - but did do a little better last time.
In truth, I would be very surprised if he were to win this afternoon - but at least he’s turned up, so we do have some chance of collecting !
However, I think the chance of collecting on Supasundae is much higher.
It does depend on the 2 market leaders under-performing - but I think that is distinctly possible.
Outside of them, the race is there for the taking - and hopefully Supasundae will be able to take it !
4:10
He may only be 8 years old, but Bouvreuil has already got a very impressive record at the Cheltenham festival…
Formerly trained by Paul Nichols, he finished runner up in the Fred Winter hurdle at the 2015 festival; before filling the same spot, 12 months later in the novice handicap chase.
He could only manage third in the 2017 Plate - but that was behind Road to Respect (as above !) and Baron Alco - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
Last season, he was well fancied for the Grand Annual - but was brought down at the second fence.
I think he deserves a change of festival fortune - and hopefully he will get that this afternoon…
He is now in the care of Ben Haslam, and won on his debut for him at Wetherby in December.
That was a good effort. He beat Movie Legend by a length - and that one has subsequently won twice and is now rated 9lb higher in the handicap.
Bouvreuil on the other hand, is just 3lb higher - having disappointed on his only subsequent run…
That was also in December and I think it is in his favour that he has been kept fresh since then.
He’s also had wind surgery - and I suspect he will primed to run a big race today.
Clearly he will need some luck - but if he gets that, I can’t see him not going very close.
In truth, despite the numbers, this doesn’t look the most competitive of races…
Janika and Siruh du Lac set the standard - but they are both a fair bit higher in the handicap, than when fighting out the finish of a good race on Trials day.
Spiritofthegame also ran well that day - but he looked primed to win on that occasion, so I wonder how much improvement he has in him…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Azzerti run well - though I’m not sure that todays test is ideal for him…
I think there can be little doubt it is ideal for Bouvreuil - and I expect him to run a really big race.
Whether that will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell - but I’m hopeful !
4:50
This is not a race that I particularly expected to be playing in - but a Epatante looks to have been put in too short - and that means there is value elsewhere…
In fairness, to Epatante, she’s nearly impossible to get a handle on, having been a very easy winner of her 2 UK races.
She is clearly held in high regard by connections - but the fitting of a first time hood, hints at issues - and this is too competitive a race to be backing something at 2/1…
Somewhat Ironically, I’m taking her on with Elusive Belle: who has also only run twice in the UK - and will be wearing a first time hood !
However, she was a 16/1 shot yesterday evening, which made her far more appealing.
Whether she has as much ability as Epatante, remains to be seen: but a 19 length destruction of a 136 rated horse (admittedly in receipt of a fair chunk of weight), suggests she could be very useful indeed.
She didn’t give herself any chance of getting home when pulling too hard in a small field race, last time - but todays bigger field and the fitting of the hood, should enable her to show what she is capable of this afternoon…
In addition to her, I want Indefatigable on side, at an even bigger price…
She has finished runner up on her 2 most recent outings. Firstly behind Posh Trish at Taunton; and then behind Lady Buttons, at Doncaster.
They are both strong pieces of form. She was only beaten 2 lengths by Post Trish at Taunton and it really doesn’t make any sense, that she can be backed at the same price to place, as Posh Trish can be backed to win.
In truth, there are plenty of others who can also be given a chance…
Sancta Simona and My Sister Sarah, look two strong contenders for Willie Mullins: whilst Sinoria is a mare on an upward trajectory, who I would expect to run very well.
5:30
I have to be honest, I ran out of time to assess this race properly - and whilst I do have a few half fancies, I don’t want to be tipping something that I’ve not fully researched…
As with the Pertemps final you have to be very fearful that Gordon Elliot has plotted one up here, in the shape of Measureofmydreams.
He finished third behind Minella Roccoa and Native River in the 2016 NH chase - and off a mark of 137 today, he could be thrown in.
He showed distinct promise on his comeback from injury at Fairyhouse last month - and the booking of Jamie Codd shows intent.
However, I really couldn’t entertain him at 9/2 (even less than Sire du Berlais !).
On first inspection, I was drawn to No Comment and Just a Sting, as both should have scope for improvement.
Of the pair, I would slightly prefer the chances of No Comment.
He is a classy horse, who ran well, to a point, in last seasons NH chase.
The other 2 that I briefly considered getting involved with, are Captain Chaos and Perfect Candidate.
I could certainly see the former running well - though I would have some concerns about him getting up the hill.
Perfect Candidate will have no issue with the hill, the question is smply whether his advancing years have caught up with him (he’s now 12).
On balance, I just didn’t feel sufficiently strongly about anything to warrant getting involved with the race.
If forced, I’d side with Cpatain Chaos, each way - and he might be worth a small play if you can get 25/1 and reasonable place terms…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:30 Vinndication 1pt win 8/1
Chel 2:50 Road to Respect 2pt win 9/2
Chel 3:30 Supasundae 1pt win 8/1
Chel 3:30 Sam Spinner 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Bouvreuil 0.5pt EW 25/1
Chel 4:50 Indefatigable 0.5pt EW 33/1
Chel 4:50 Elusive Belle 0.5pt win 16/1
Mentions
Chel 2:10 Sire du Berlais (S )
Chel 5:30 Captain Chaos EW
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