It’s a low key day, for a Saturday - and there aren’t too many races, in which I could consider tipping.
However, most of the possible races, have drawn reasonable sized fields and are quite competitive - so finding tips was at least feasible.
That said, it tends to be a good idea to tread carefully at this time of year…
Ordinarily, the ground is on the turn, with the better weather resulting in quicker conditions - though that’s not really the case this season, as the ground hasn’t ever gone that soft !
The other potential issue is that a few of the horses will be going over the top, after long seasons.
It’s never easy to judge in advance, when a horse has had enough - but it is something I’m always mindful of…
Anyway, I’ve ended up with just 3 small tips on the day.
I did consider a few others - but ultimately, I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to tip them.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips that I did opt for - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Newbury
2:05
I like Strong Pursuit best in this - but I don’t like his price !
In fairness, I can understand it: he ran really well at Sandown in February, on his return from a long absence.
If he can build on that, he must go very close today - however, there must also be a chance he’ll ‘bounce’ and I’m not sure that is fully factored in to his price (3/1).
Furthermore, based purely on that run, he has little in hand on Salmanazar.
That one finished just behind him at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today.
Strong Pursuit has the greater potential - but I’m not sure it warrants him being a third of the price…
In truth, this looks quite a trappy event.
I’m not overly keen on the claims of second and third favourites; Classic Ben and Joe Farrel - but there are a few of the outsiders, who have the latent ability to go very close…
Luckofthedraw, Rock my Style and Kansas City Chief, are all capable of big runs - though non of the 3 are guaranteed to run their race.
All are worth monitoring in the betting however, in case they come in for sustained support.
With them lurking however, it’s not a race that could be approached with confidence.
That would make it hard to support Strong Pursuit at a short price - even ignoring the concerns with him.
If he drifted to 5/1+, then he would become interesting - but at the current prices, it’s a watching race….
2:40
There is far too much guesswork required to consider getting involved with this particular contest…
Friend or Foe is a short priced favourite, on the back of an impressive UK debut win at Taunton.
Apparently, Paul Nicholls fancied him for the Fred Winter hurdle at Cheltenham, believing the horse to be well handicapped.
If he was capable of going close in that contest - then he will probably win today.
However, odds of 5/2 in a 14 runner handicap, with plenty of unexposed horses in opposition, holds no appeal…
Second favourite, Elysees, is also interesting.
He has demonstrated a good level of form over hurdles - and has apparently been targeted at this race.
He is more exposed than many of the runners - but his second to Quel Destin at Doncaster in December, is the best form in the race.
He should go close - and 6/1 is a fair price….
Outside of the 2 market leaders, then Legal History makes most appeal - but he too has been quite well found in the market.
3:15
This is another open looking handicap - but I think it is worth getting involved with a couple of the lesser fancied runners…
Unlike the previous race, there are no stand out contenders and Millarville and Off the Hook, both strike me as very interesting.
The former makes her handicap debut, having performed well on her 2 most recent runs in novice company: winning on the first occasion - and then finishing third.
She is stepped up in trip today - and as a PTP winner over 3 miles, that looks a move which is almost certain to bring about improvement.
Richard Johnson is a significant jockey booking - and it looks as if she has been targeted at this race…
I suspect that Off the Hook has also been targeted at the race.
She is only the second ever runner at Newbury, for Nick Alexander (his first ran yesterday).
Her form is strong: She finished third to Queenofhearts in a listed race at Haydock, on her penultimate outing - with Papagarna was just behind in fourth (she subsequently won at Doncaster).
She then followed that up by taking a maiden event at Ayr from Sam’s Adventure - and that one also won on his next outing.
Off the Hook looks fairly handicapped on those pieces of form - and she should be well suited by todays test. Plenty of the others can be given a chance - with Etamine du Cochet looking the most dangerous of them. However, there is enough guesswork required with her, to swerve at a best price of 8/1.
Kelso
2:25
I was quite tempted to take a risk on Saint Leo in this…
He was a 2pt tip the last time he ran - and he looked likely to win, until falling.
That was over fences - and he runs over hurdles this afternoon.
In truth, that move could be read in a number of ways (possibly a confidence rebuilding exercise) - however the fact that James Reveley comes over from France to ride him, suggests there is positive intent.
He’s got winning hurdles form in his native France - and I think he is well handicapped - so he really is quite tempting …
However, there are a couple of issues: firstly the ground at Kelso, is likely to be a bit quicker than ideal for him; and secondly he faces at least 4 dangerous looking opponents.
With the guesswork and uncertainty, my feeling is that a price of 6/1, is about right.
He can be backed at 7/1 in a few places - and I wouldn’t put off anyone from getting involved with that.
Officially, though he is just going to be a Mention.
3:00
Capard King looks interesting in this, on his second run for Sandy Thompson.
Formerly trained by Jonjo O’Neil, he made his debut for Thompson at Ayr a fortnight ago and travelled very powerfully through the race, but didn’t quite see it out.
That was his first run for 2 months - and I’m sure he will strip much fitter today.
There can be little doubt that Capard King is a potentially well handicapped horse.
Despite being 2lb out of the handicap this afternoon, he runs from a mark of 120 - which is 19lb below his career high (and 15lb below his last winning mark).
As a 10 year old, there is a chance that he’s not quite as good as he once was: however, there is also the chance that the move to Sandy Thompson will have rekindled his flame.
In theory, he faces some tough opponents this afternoon.
However, favourite, Some Chaos has been raised 11lb for his last time out win: whilst Blue Flight is up 14lb for his defeat of Black Corton in a conditons event.
There must be a possibility that both of them have been harshly dealt with by the handicapper…
In fairness, neither Rons Dream nor Le Reve can be easily dismissed - so it’s not a race to be going over-board on.
That said, Capard King has a fair chance on recent form - and a very good chance on old form - so is worthy of a small interest.
3:35
I did consider getting involved with Captain Drake in this - but I think he’s a bit too short in the betting at 9/2…
With Worthy Farm at 3/1 - and a few credible opponents, I hoped that 6/1 might be obtainable - but that’s not the case.
In terms of the case for him: then it revolves around his defeat of subsequent winner, Liosduin Bhearna, in a novice event at Uttoxeter: and his subsequent win on handicap debut at Southwell.
The bare form of his most recent win, is nothing to get excited about. In fact, he has nothing in hand of Tomkevi, based purely on that run.
However, I get the feeling that he’s a horse with plenty of improvement in him - and I suspect he will relish todays step up in trip to 3m2f.
Certainly, I would take a risk on him at a price - but that price would need to be bigger than 9/2…
In truth, plenty of his opponents can be given a chance (which is another reason for wanting a price) - with Burrows Park, the one that interests me most.
I don’t particularly like the fact he ran at Cheltenham just 8 days ago - bit he did run well and if anyone can get them back performing after a tough race, it is Venetia.
He could be worth a small risk at 9/1 - but it’s hard to tip one horse when you fancy another one more !
On balance, I felt it best to make it a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 3:15 Milarville 0.5pt win 12/1
Newb 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 14/1
Kels 3:00 Capard King 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Newb 2:05 Strong Pursuit (P )
Newb 2:40 Elysees (O )
Kels 2:25 Saint Leo (O )
Kels 3:35 Captain Drake (P )
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