And I expected things to be quiet, after Cheltenham !
In fairness, most of the meetings are low key, with only Uttoxeter and Kempton staging races which could be described as ‘big’.
In truth, even the Kempton card is a little disappointing.
It puts on a couple of ‘consolation‘ races for horses that missed out on running at Cheltenham.
The meeting appeared set to take off, a couple of seasons back - but the fields for todays 2 feature races, aren’t great…
As a consequence, I’ve had to go to Uttoxeter for the tips.
I’ve managed to find 3 of them there - and I was quite happy with them, yesterday evening.
However, the prices were eroded overnight - and the margins aren’t quite as big this morning !
I still think they are worth backing - and who knows, there’s always the chance that the prices will drift back out a little, come to off…
Anyway, here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the big races which are taking place today…
Uttoxeter
2:25
I quite like Tara Flow in this…
I was very taken by her effort, last time out at Ffos Las, when she finished second to Molly Carew.
The winner appeared to be a very well handicapped horse, so Tara Flow probably lost little in defeat.
In fact, I’m a bit surprised that Tara Flows mark remained unchanged following the run, as Molly Carew was raised by 10lb (accepting that she did win by 10 lengths).
Having won over hurdles on heavy (when she defeated the very useful, The Organist), todays under-foot conditions, will hold no fear for Tara Flow.
She is unproven over todays trip - but there is no reason to think she won’t be able to cope with it - and there’s even a chance she will improve for the step up !
Venetia has been in very good form, for a number of weeks. She didn’t manage to get a winner at Cheltenham, but even there, most of her horses ran well (most notable, Aso).
Tara Flow is her only runner today - and Charlie Deutch's only ride.
Hopefully they can make it count !
Top weight, De Rasher Counter, looks like the main danger.
He’s been in good form lately - and still remains fairly handicapped.
However, lugging 11st12lb round in heavy ground, won’t be easy for him…
3:00
I think it is worth taking a risk on Forecast in this.
He caught my eye on his most recent run, at Cheltenham, on New Years day.
I tipped Aux Ptit Soins in that race, but was very aware of how well Forecast was travelling, coming down the hill.
Ultimately, Aux Ptit Soins kicked away in the home straight - but that may in part have been because Forecast didn’t stay the 3 mile trip.
Certainly his best form is over todays trip of 2m4f - including a third place behind Paisley Park, at Aintree in October; and a win over Notre Ami in the heavy at Lingfield, the following month.
All of those runs, give him a decent chance this afternoon…
The market for todays race, is headed by a couple of unexposed horses, in the shape of Acey Milan and Bold Plan.
Both are making their handicaps debuts - and could certainly better than their opening marks.
If they are, then they could prove too good for Fortune - but I think that’s a risk worth taking…
Certainly, I think he has as good a chance as any of the more exposed horses - particularly as he is proven under todays conditions.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Back to the Thatch in this.
He was quite well fancied for the corresponding race, 12 months ago (sent off at 15/2), but ran disappointingly and was pulled up.
However, he arrived that day, on the back over a heavy fall in the Eider chase - and there must be a chance that affected his performance…
He didn’t run again last season, but following a low key seasonal debut at Bangor, he ran well in the Welsh National trial at Chepstow.
That suggested he was back in his groove - and as a consequence, he was sent off at just 2/1 for a decent handicap chase at Haydock, at the end of the year.
He ran really well in that race, but just couldn’t managed to concede 8lb to the rejuvenated, Chef D’ouvre.
I don’t think that was any shame in that, as the winner subsequently went on to run a massive race behind Robinsfirth, at the same course.
As a consequence, Chef D’ouvre has to re-oppose Back to the Thatch on 9lb worse terms today for 3 lengths, and that should see the form reversed…
I also like the fact that Back to the Thatch hasn’t run since then.
He was again being targeted at the Eider - but connections gave that race a miss, owing to the quick ground.
Quick ground won’t be a problem today ! - and with Dickie in the saddle, I expect him to go very close indeed…
I was hoping to put up Milansbar as a saver - because I think he is potentially very dangerous.
However, he was tipped up in a host of places, last night - and a price of 8/1 this morning, is too short about a 12 year old in a 22 runner race.
I suspect he will drift (because he has been over-backed) - and if you can get double figures on him, then he is worth a small saver.
Officially speaking however, all of the eggs are in the Back to the Thatch basket !
Kempton
2:05
I’m moderately tempted to take a risk on Eddiemaurice in this.
He should arguably have won last time out - and Kempton is very much his track (he prefers the quick ground, which Kempton tends to produce).
The issue is, he’s a ‘traveller’ rather than a ‘finisher’ - and he would almost certainly be better suited by a bigger field (so he could be smuggled in to the race and delivered late).
That said, favourite, Timoteo, does look vulnerable…
He was most impressive when wining on his chasing debut at Stratford on Monday - but that was just 5 days ago - so there is a definite risk as to whether he will have fully recovered.
The only other runner worthy of consideration, appears to be Envoye Special - and he’s a hard one to get a handle on.
He’s only run twice in the UK - but has shown promise on both occasions.
He looks as if he could be one for next season - though if he’s strong in the market today, then I would maybe take the hint !
2:40
If you could be sure that Honest Vic would run to the same level of form he showed on his most recent outing, he would be a good bet in this.
Last time out, he finished runner up at Ascot, splitting Brio Conte and Ballyandy - with Malaya just behind in fourth place.
The first 2 named, finished third and fourth in Wednesday Coral cup; whilst Malaya subsequently won the Imperial cup.
To say the form is rock solid, is an under-statement !
However, Honest Vic showed big improvement that day - and it coincided with the fitting of a first time visor.
The visor is retained today - but whether it will have the same impact, is anybodys guess…
Certainly, if you look at Honest Vics form, aside from his last run, then it’s hard to make a case for him…
If he doesn’t perform to the Ascot level of form, then My Way looks the one most likely to take advantage, on his handicap debut.
He’s clearly well thought of (he made his UK debut in a grade 2 event) - and an opening mark of 121, looks very workable…
3:15
This race looks a complete minefield - and is definitely one best swerved from a betting perspective.
The biggest issue is the presence of Onefortheroadtom.
He’s been running eye catchingly in some much better races - whilst ultimately getting beaten a long way.
The feeling is that connections are working on his handicap mark - and the official assessor is certainly playing ball, as his mark has come down from 137 to 122.
However, we can only guess that’s the case - which makes supporting him at short odds, an impossible thing to do.
He could easily bolt in this afternoon - or he could just as easily finish out the back…
Even ignoring him this is not any easy race to asses.
Brother Ted is potentially well handicapped - and back at his favourite course - but he’s only run once in the past 2 years, so clearly comes with risks.
Kansas City Chief is another potentially dangerous one. He is dropping down the handicap and will doubtless come good at some point (I don’t think it will be today - but I couldn’t be totally sure).
Peacocks Secret is quite interesting, over from Ireland; whist El Terremento is probably the default winner, if non of the ‘plots’ are being timed for today !
In summary, it has to be a watching race - hopefully one which will reveal a few more clues on future intentions, for some of the runners !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Uttx 2:25 Tara Flow 1pt win 8/1
Uttx 3:00 Forecast 0.5pt win 16/1
Uttx 3:35 Back to the Thatch 1pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 2:05 Eddiemaurice (C )
Kemp 2:40 Honest Vic (C )
No comments:
Post a Comment