There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.
As I inferred in the ‘Plans for the weekend’ email, there are no really big races taking place - they are all on hold until Cheltenham !
However, there are some reasonable races, which provide some decent betting opportunities - and we all like those !
The fields are relatively small at both Doncaster and Kelso (particularly, the latter - who understandably feel aggrieved with field sizes, considering the prize money on offer) and so consequently, most of the best bets are on the Newbury card.
I’ve found tips in all the big races there - plus a couple more at Doncaster.
Here is the rationale behind them…
Newbury
1:30
The presence of Betameche makes this a tough race to get involved with…
The race is for ‘seniors’ (horses of 8 and older) - the idea being that it gives a chance to exposed horses, who keep on getting beaten by unexposed ones !
Betameche is 8 - but he’s only 5 times in his life - and just 3 times over hurdles.
More than that, on his second bumper run, he comfortably beat Sam Spinner and Keeper Hill.
Those 2 are now rated 155 and 144 respectively - and whilst the form can’t be taken literally, it does suggest that Betameche could be thrown in today off a mark of 124 !
That mark is a guess from the assessor, based on his 3 hurdle runs - but there has to be a distance chance, he’s seriously under-estimated the horse…
The trouble is, the betting public haven’t - and a price of 15/8 in a 12 runner handicap, makes no appeal…
Ritual of Senses doesn’t have a lot more experience than Betameche - and he too could prove to be a good deal better than his current mark.
He showed promise as a novice and his fourth in the Gerry Fieldon hurdle, 2 seasons back, is good form.
However, he only ran once more that season - and then wasn’t seen until re-appearing at Warwick, this January.
He ran really well that day, in a Pertemps qualifier, over a 3 mile trip.
It was only in the final half mile of the race that he backed out of things - which was understandable considering his long absence.
The handicapper has dropped him 5lb for that run - and he is cut back in trip by half a mile.
He also sports first time blinkers - and Sam TD takes over in the saddle, from a 7lb claimer…
I’m pretty sure connections will be going for it today - the trouble is, they may have bumped into one, in Betameche !
Despite that, I think it is worth getting involved with the race.
It lacks depth - as there really are only 2 or 3 others, which I could be interested in (A Hares Breath and Nesterenko main amongst them).
I considered saving stakes on Betameche - but 15/8 is too short (though I’m not entirely convinced he will drift !).
Therefore I opted for Ritual of Senses EW.
If he wins - great: if he places - we still make a tiny profit…
2:05
I do love the veterans races - though they are never easy to read…
Generally, you have to balance falling handicap marks - with diminishing ability - and that’s not an easy thing to do !
10 year olds tend to do well in these races - mainly because they have only just reached the veteran stage - and there are 5 of that age group in this particular contest.
However, 3 of the 5 are making their seasonal debut - and at this point in the season, that suggests there have been issues.
The other 2 are Perform and Shanroe Santos - and I’m quite keen on the chances of the latter…
He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Cheltenham, when chasing home the very well handicapped, Beware the Bear.
He didn’t run as well on his latest outing at Sandown - but I don’t think conditions suited him, that day.
On the plus side, he was dropped 2lb for the run - and that means he competes today off a mark of 135 - just 3lb higher than the one he won from at Fontwell in November.
More than that, Maxime Tissier takes over in the saddle and claims 5lb - so he is arguably back to a winning mark…
I have a slight concern that he may want more of a stamina test than he will get this afternoon - but the presence of Milansbar, will hopefully ensure the race is run at a good pace.
If it is, then I think Shanroe Santos will go very close…
Of the others, then you have to be fearful of both Caroles Destrier and Theatre Guide.
Both have sufficient back class to win - and have proved themselves very effective at todays course and on decent ground.
The Last Samurai is another who could be very dangerous - though he too, has been well found in the market…
2:40
I don’t think this race is as competitive as the numbers - and prize money - would suggest…
On initial viewing, I struggled to see past Happy Diva - though I could also make half cases for Valdez, Javert and San Benedito.
The trouble is, backing something at 5/1 in a 16 runner handicap, goes against the grain - particularly when I have a slight concern that the horse in question, may have gone past its peak for the season…
Fortunately, delving deeper into the form book, revealed Nightfly - and not only do I think she should be at her peak today, she is also 4 times the price of Happy Diva !
The 2 horses met last time in a conditions race, at Huntingdon.
Happy Diva was much better suited by the race conditions - and ended up a convincing winner.
However, Nightfly ran really well to finish fourth.
She was beaten 9 lengths that day - but gets a 10lb weight pull today, so the two of them should finish almost along side each other this afternoon.
More than that, I think Nightfly can improve for that run (it was her first for 2 months), whereas it struck me that Happy Diva was producing a peak performance.
Whatever, at the respective prices, it’s not hard to see where the value lies !
I do have a slight concern about Nightfly seeing out the trip - so I think it makes sense to back her EW.
That said, I think she is a really good bet - win, lose or draw !
3:10
I’m not in the habit of tipping horses that halve in price over-night - but I’ve made an exception with Flying Tiger !
As regular readers will know, I’m quite a fan of the horse: I’ve tipped him a few times over the seasons (at least 3 !) - and he’s also been an official eye catcher once or twice !
Suffice to say, he’s a horse I know very well - and he’s a horse who has more than enough ability to win a race such as this…
In pure handicapping terms, that’s obvious, as he runs today from a mark 1lb lower than when he won the 2017 Fred Winter hurdle, at the Cheltenham festival.
More than that, I suspect he ‘s a better horse now - he’s just become very adept at finding ways to lose !
It doesn’t help, that he pulls a lot - so he needs a good pace to chase (which hopefully he will get in todays big field).
He also needs to be ridden with restraint - and that can make him a hostage to fortune.
He’s been badly hampered and unseated on 2 of his last 3 runs (which is very bad luck !).
The wide open spaces and long straight at Newbury, should help in him that regard.
I also think that he will be massively helped by having a professional jockey on board.
I’m a big fan of conditionals - as generally, the weight allowance they get, more than offsets the reduction in ability/experience - but I think Flying Tiger needs stronger handling than most conditionals are capable of…
He’s the kind of horse that will always come with risks - but I think all of the risks have been managed as well as they can be, today…
Last nights 16/1 was a crazy price - this mornings 8/1 was much nearer the mark.
Crooks Peak is the main worry - because he has unlimited potential.
That said, he will need to be pretty good to beat Flying Tiger, if luck smiles on him this afternoon…
Doncaster
3:00
Even before this mornings 2 withdrawals, this looked a 2 horse race, between Danse Idol and Papagarna…
On official ratings, Bonza Girl also has a chance - but she is officially rated 5lb inferior to the main 2 - and her jockey, Rex Dingle, is unable to claim his 5lb allowance.
In small field races, jockeyship can be crucial, so that 5lb is likely to be warranted in this particular contest…
Danse Idol and Papagana won’t lack any assistance from the saddle, so it should really come down to which is the better horse.
And as they have met on their last 2 runs - that should be a relatively easy one to answer.
Danse Idol has come out on top, both times - and with the weights the same today, it’s reasonable to think that will again be the outcome.
However…
The margin between the 2 horses was less last time, than it was when they first met - suggesting that Papagarna is improving slightly faster.
More importantly, Papagarna has been staying on strongly at the end of both races - whilst the shorter trip has looked to be as far as Danse Idol wants to go…
They step up in trip by half a mile this afternoon - and I that could therefore prove crucial…
Of course, it will rely on there being a reasonable pace in the race, enabling Papagarnas apparently superior stamina to come into effect - and unfortunately that’s not guaranteed (and the NRs haven’t helped).
That said, Leighton Aspell is a shrewd enough jockey - and I’m sure he will be aware of the situation.
Hopefully, one of the other 3 runners will provide some pace to the race - but if they don’t he will hopefully take the initiative.
Provided the race is a true test, then I think Papagarna can come out on top.
3:35
Whilst numerically, there is a disappointing turnout for this race - it is still quite an intriguing puzzle…
A case can be made for all 7 of the runners - and at the odds, I think Brian Boranha is worthy of modest support.
He’s been on a steady improve since switching to fences, 18 months ago - and put up his most impressive performance to date, when winning the Durham National at Sedgefield back on October.
He was then given 3 months off, before returning in the Sky Bet chase, at Doncaster in January.
That was a step up in grade for him - but he travelled through the race in a manner which suggested he was more than up to the job.
In fact, on the turn in, he looked just about the most likely winner - but he didn’t get home…
The trip can’t have been the issue (his previous win was over 5 furlongs further) - so the logical assumption is that he needed the run.
The handicapper has dropped him 2lb, which means he meets the race favourite that day, Dingo Dollar, on improved terms (despite travelling all over him, turning in).
In fairness, Dingo Dollar didn’t seem to run his race that day - and he would be a big danger based on his run in the Hennessey.
It’s also easy enough to make a case for Rockys Treasure, Looking Well and Barney Dwan - though equally, non are bomb proof…
At the end of the day, it comes down to price - and Brian Boranha looks over-priced at around 14/1.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 1:30 Ritual of Senses 0.5pt EW 8/1
Newb 2:05 Shanroe Santos 1pt win 11/1
Newb 2:40 Nightfly 0.5pt EW 20/1
Newb 3:10 Flying Tiger 1pt win 8/1
Donc 3:00 Papagana 1pt win 5/2
Donc 3:35 Brian Boranha 0.5pt win 16/1
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