It wasn’t easy to figure out the exact state of the ground, yesterday…
The times for most of the races, weren’t too bad (suggesting conditions no worse than soft) - and this was backed up visually, in some of the races.
However, the post race jockey comments, tended to suggest it was borderline heavy - and things certainly looked pretty desperate in the last !
I guess it’s fair to say that the surface didn’t suit fast ground horses - and was a good deal softer than the ground that has been raced on for the past few months.
What happens to it from here however, remains in the lap of the weather gods… (with more rain forecast)
In terms of todays racing, then it’s another excellent day.
The feared destructive winds, haven’t materialised, so racing goes ahead as planned (probably !)
Altior is the headline act in the Champion chase - but there is a decent supporting card (as you would expect).
Wednesday tends to be the hardest day to find tips, as a few of the races don’t tend to lend themselves to betting.
That’s the case again today - and I’ve not forced things.
As a consequence, there are 7 tips on the day, across 5 races.
Ofcourse, I’ve also got views on the the days other races.
Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my other thoughts on the day…
Cheltenham
1:30
Despite a last time out defeat to Battleoverdoyen at Naas, early in January, I want to be with Sams Profile in this…
Superficially, there appears little reason why he should reverse the form today - but I’m optimistic he will.
For a start, Sams Profile is the younger horse and was having only his third run over hurdles, that day.
His inexperience seemed to catch him out early in the race, when his jumping was poor.
He gradually warmed to the task as the race progressed, and it says much for his ability that he still had every chance turning in.
However, he was hampered a couple of times, approaching the second last - and by the time he got into the clear, Battleoverdoyen had flown.
He ran on strongly to the line, taking a comfortable second placing - and I suspect he will improve significantly for the experience.
Whether that will enable him to reverse the form, remains to be seen - but I think he is a sporting bet to do so.
In truth, even if he can get the better of Battleoverdoyen this is still a strong field.
However, I have some doubts concerning the favourite, Champ - whilst the other main English challenger, Brewinupastorm, also looks vulnerable…
That said, there aren’t many I could comfortably eliminate, so Sams Profile could still have his work cut out.
However, I do very much like his trainer, Mouse Morris - and I get the feeling that Sams Profile is a very good horse.
Hopefully he will demonstrate that to be the case, this afternoon !
2:10
This race has got a similar shape to yesterday Champion hurdle, with 3 horses dominating the betting…
The market says that the winner will come from Delta Work; Santini or Topofthegame - and that may well be the case.
However, as yesterdays Champion demonstrated, almost anything can happen in a horse race - never mind a 3 mile novice chase, run on questionable ground !
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a risk on one of the outsiders - and I’ve opted to side with The Worlds End…
On official ratings, he is the joint best horse in the race, along with Delta Work and Topofthegame; he can also boast an impressive course win, back in December - so his credentials aren’t bad for a 25/1 shot…
On the flip side, there is a question mark over him, on soft ground - and he did disappoint last time out.
That was in the Kauto Star novice chase at Kempton, when he finished well behind both Topofthegame and Santini.
However he was sent off at just 6/1 that day - but didn’t appear to handle the track.
It strikes me as significant that he’s not been seen since then - and also that he returns, sporting first time cheek pieces.
As was the case 12 months ago, his trainer Tom George, seems to have his string in top form for the festival (he had a couple of big priced runners perform very well yesterday), and simply, I think the horse has been under-estimated by the market…
Of the ‘big 3’ then I would be least keen on Santini,
I’m sure the horse has huge talent - but his preparation has been far from ideal and I suspect that will ultimately catch him out today.
The question mark with Topofthegame, is his stamina - if he doesn’t settle early in the race.
Delta Work does look bomb proof - the question is simply whether he is good enough (he’s not beaten a great deal, in Ireland).
The official handicapper says he might be - but then again, so might The Worlds End !
At 10 times the price, the latter has to be worth a small risk…
2:40
There is a monster field of 25 for this - but I’m happy enough siding with just 2, in the shape of Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti.
Killultagh Vic is a former festival winner - who has also shown himself capable of operating at grade 1 level.
His festival win came in the 2015 Marin Pipe hurdle - and he followed that up next time, by beating Thistlecrack at Punchestown.
The following season, he was in the process of making up into a top class novice chaser - but a fall at Leopardstown derailed his career.
Despite that, he would have won the last years Irish Gold cup, if he hadn’t fallen at the last, when in the lead.
The bottom line with him, is that he is a grade 1 horse - when at his best.
There is a chance he might not be at his best today - but he runs off a mark of just 150, and if he is, I think he will win.
Certainly, at odds of 14/1, he is worth a risk…
The other one I want on side, is Brio Conti…
He was a winning Mention at Ascot, last time (one of 3 on the day - as I’m sure you all recall !).
I was put off tipping him that day, because Paul Nichols reckoned he would need the run.
That might have been the case - but it didn’t stop him from winning !
He has only been raised 5lb for the victory - and if Nichols was right and he did need the run, then I think he will go very close again today.
Certainly, he has form which suggests he could still be leniently rated off a mark of 146 - and his stable couldn’t be in better form…
As you would expect, in a race of this nature, there are plenty of others, for whom half cases could be made…
I thought Dancing on my Own looked very interesting - but the fancy prices on him were taken before the market had stabilised.
I would expect Vision des Flos to run well - but he may be a shade high in the weights: whilst Cracking Smart looks dangerous, for Gordon Elliot.
In truth, I could easily list a few more ‘dangers’ but in reality, I‘m happy that Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti have both got excellent chances in a very competitive race.
3:30
It’s always great to see a true champion performing - and there can be little doubt that Altior is a true champion.
Unbeaten in 17 races over obstacles, he will today, attempt to win at his fourth successive Cheltenham festival.
It’s quite possible, that at some point in the race, he will look in trouble: however, in all probability, that won’t be when as he powers up the final hill !
It says much, that Min looks, by some way, his biggest rival today.
However, that was also the case 12 months ago, when Altior dispatched him by 7 lengths - and also in in 2015 when he beat him by exactly the same margin, in the Supreme hurdle.
In truth, Altior looks bomb proof.
The only way he is likely to be beaten is if there is no pace in the race - or if he makes a catastrophic mistake (or finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time).
Saint Calvados and Hell’s Kitchen should ensure there is pace in the race: and whilst mistakes and bad luck are always possible, they are not things which I feel comfortable using as an argument, to take on any horse (and certainly not Altior !).
Hopefully he will just romp home - and we will be treated to the sight of a true champion, performing at the peak of his powers.
After all, that’s really what the Cheltenham festival should be about…
4:10
Admirable horse that he is, I feel that Tiger Roll has to be taken on at odds of 5/4, in this…
Of course, he won the corresponding race last year - and followed up in the Grand National - so his credentials are very strong.
However, with 30 fences to be jumped and almost 4 miles to travel, the element of ‘lottery’ in the race, means that it would be hard to support any horse at a price close to even money.
Instead, I’d rather side with Auvergnat and Tea for Two…
The former finished fourth in last years race - but has taken his form to a new level this season.
That’s courtesy of an emphatic win in the Paddy Power, at Leopardstown, at Christmas.
Auvergnat was massively impressive that day, suggesting that he may still be improving.
It’s interesting that connections have resisted running him again since then - and he looks very much, the one that Tiger Roll has to beat…
That said, I also want to take a risk on Tea for Two.
He’s not been in great form this season - but he is a proven grade 1 performer and is still only 10.
He’s won an Aintree Bowl - and been placed in a King George - and horses with that level of ability don’t tend to run in cross country races.
However, he is being targeted at the Grand National and connections reasonably think this will give him valuable experience.
He should handle the ground - and cope with the distance, so if he does take to the obstacles, I can see him running a very big race.
A few of the others can also be given half chances - so whatever, I don’t think this will be a cake walk for Tiger Roll...
4:50
I did intend to get involved with this race - but the more I look at it, the more it appears a complete minefield !
Maybe that shouldn't be too surprising, with 22 unexposed juvenile hurdlers.
I honestly think I could make quite a compelling case for at least half of them - and that’s too many…
Got Trumped was the one I nearly tipped - but he has little in hand of La Sorelita (she has been a Mention in the past).
More than that, jockey bookings suggest that La Sorelita is the lesser fancied of Willie Mullins pair, behind Ceil De Neige. But as he is making his stable debut, a lot of guesswork is required…
That’s also the case for Fox Pro (who makes his debut for Jane Williams) and Naturelle (who makes his UK debut for his French trainer).
All 3 could be anything - but equally, would be impossible to support…
More conventional form study could lead you to one of Joseph O’Briens 3 runners - but it would be hard to choose between them: Similarly, Gordon Elliott runs 3 - but trying to figure out his number one, is no easy task…
Fanfare du Seuil is yet another one that needs adding to the mix - and I could still have missed the winner !
In short, the race is an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum - and in the circumstances, almost certainly best just watched !
5:30
After due consideration, I’ve decided to get involved with this race.
The issue I have, is that there is very little from to work with - so a lot of guesswork is required.
On the flip side, that means that the market could easily have got things wrong - so there could be some decent value available…
And I think that’s the case with Thyme Hill.
He’s run just twice in his life: winning at Worcester and the finishing runner up to Master Debonair in the listed bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting.
He ran really well that day, staying on strongly, having taken the (unfavourable) inside route, round the home turn.
It’s interesting that connections have saved him since then - and from a pure value perspective, it’s impossible to understand why he is twice the price of the horse who finished just a neck in front of him…
Ofcourse, there is a danger that the form of that race won’t be strong enough to win today - but that’s true for all of the runners…
Envoi Allen and Blue Sari represent Elliott and Mullins - and appear to be the pick of the Irish contingent.
However, there is no value in their respective prices…
That’s now also the case, for the Paul Nichols trained, Ask for Glory.
He held some appeal at a double figure price, on the back of a bloodless debut win at Chepstow - but at 7/1, there is no margin in his current price.
Sempo is the final one worthy of a mention, for Joseph O’Brien and Derek O Connor - and it would certainly be no surprise to see him run a big race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 1:30 Sams Profile 1pt win 11/1
Chel 2:10 The Worlds End 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 2:50 Killultagh Vic 0.5pt win 14/1
Chel 2:50 Brio Conti 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 4:10 Tea for Two 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 4:10 Auvergnat 0.5pt win 8/1
Chel 5:30 Thyme Hill 0.5pt win 22/1
Mentions
Chel 4:50 Got Trumped (O )
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