Daily write-up - Mar 31st

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Ascot and Limerick.

Things have been very quiet since Cheltenham: in truth, things have been very quiet for the past month - aside from Cheltenham !

That will change this week, however.

Not so much today: though both of the days meetings have some merit - but from Thursday onwards, when the Grand National meeting begins at Aintree…

Today provides a nice aperitif for that:
There is some decent racing at both Ascot and Limerick - and I particularly appreciated seeing the final declarations, 48 hours in advance.

It makes such a difference to studying the form.
Life would be so much easier, if is was introduced more generally (or at least, for Saturdays).
But alas, that is out of my hands !

Ofcourse, what it wouldn’t do, is make getting on any easier !
As always, the markets are both tight and fragile - which makes tipping a challenge.

That said, I did manage to find 3 horses who I felt were worth siding with at the generally available odds.
Now we just need one - or two - of them, to do the decent thing and come home in front !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…


Ascot

2:45

This is too open a race, to consider getting involved with…
Praeceps sets the standard on his 6th place in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
That’s obviously very strong form - and he possibly went for home too early that day.
Running off the same mark this afternoon, he sets the race standard (assuming he is fully recovered from his exertions).
That said, on the book, there is an argument for saying he shouldn’t beat Honorable.
There was just 2 lengths between the pair when they met at Market Rasen in February - and Honorable is no less than 22lb better off today !
It’s quite possible that Honorable is flattered by the run - but a price of 20/1 certainly makes him interesting…
However, the issue with the race, is that there are at least half a dozen others, who could easily be involved at the finish.
The unexposed Scaramanga for Paul Nicholls, is the most obvious one - though he has been well found in the market (3/1 fav).
Zafar and Al Kherb are similarly unexposed - but are both much bigger prices (11/1 & 25/1) which makes them more appealing…
Legal History ran really well at Newbury last Saturday, and must have a chance; as too must Irish raider, Quantatmental.
So that’s at least 7 in the race, that I could give a chance.
I think it’s time to move on…

3:20

By contrast to the previous race, this one looks too straightforward !
I spent a fair bit of time, yesterday evening, trying to work out what price I’d be prepared to tip Favorito Bucks at.
I reckon 2/1 is the ‘right’ price for him (possibly 7/4) - so I would have wanted 9/4, or ideally 5/2.
At 6/4 this morning, I quickly realised that I’d wasted my time trying to work out a ‘value’ price !
The issue is, he’s too obvious - and the opposition is too limited.
He’s actually run really poorly on his 2 most recent starts - but they were both on unsuitably soft ground.
He gets his ground this afternoon - and is back at the course where he was a good winner of a similar race, in November.
He runs from a mark just 2lb higher (because of his 2 poor subsequent runs) - and simply, is going to take a lot of beating.
There’s a slight question mark regarding the trip (it’s a bit shorter than ideal) - but he doesn’t lack pace and will probably get away with it.
The other big thing is his favour, is that non of his opponents look primed to win.
Vivas looks the most interesting of them - but he is still 3lb above his last winning mark, so may need to come down the handicap a little further…
This really does look Favorito Bucks race to lose - but 6/4 allows no margin for error, so consequently, he can only be watched.

3:55

I think it is worth taking a chance on the outsider, Eddiemaurice, in this…
He’s only run 5 times over fences in his life - and whilst he has never won, he ran really well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Lillington, at Newbury.
That one won again next time and is now rated 11lb higher, suggesting that Eddiemaurice faced quite a task that day.
In truth, for much of the home straight, it looked as if Eddiemaurice was going to win - but Lillington showed the greater resolution in the closing stages.
There is a slight concern that Eddiemaruice is a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse - though he has won 4 times over hurdles - most recently in December - so it’s not as if he can’t get his head in front.
He’s also won at Ascot - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today - so he is potentially well handicapped if everything does drop right.
That didn’t happen last time at Kempton, when he unshipped Jamie Moore at the very first fence - but I suspect Moore will be keen for atone for that, this afternoon…
Part of the attraction of Eddiemaurice is that I can see issues with all 4 of his rivals.
For a start, the top 3 horses all had their most recent outings at Cheltenham - though non of them featured in their respective contests.
Obviously, today will be a drop in class for them - but they will have been primed for the Cheltenham run, so may not be at a peak today.
They have also all got to concede at least 24lb to Eddiemaurice - and that’s a lot of weight.
Dentley de Mee is the other runner in the field - and he doesn't concede Eddiemaurice much weight.
However, his best form has been over further than todays 2m1f trip - so he may lack the required pace (particularly on quick ground).
The trip could also be an issue for Highway one o one, who has shown improved form since stepping up to 2m4f.
Capeland has already had quite a long season, suggesting that Caid du Lin could be the main danger to Eddiemaurice.
I certainly respect his chances - but he was less than half the price of Eddiemaurice, so I felt the value was with Eddie…

4:30

10 year olds tend to do well in these veterans races - and I think the three 10 year olds in this contest, are the ones to focus on…
Junction Fourteen is one of them - and he has a definite chance on his most recent run behind Looking Well, in a similar contest at Doncaster.
My main issue with him however, is that he’s at his best when able to dominate, and with Loose Chips in todays field, that’s unlikely to happen…
Van Gogh du Granit is the second 10 year old - and he ran well on debut for David Pipe last time, at Taunton.
I would expect him to improve for that run - and I could have been interested in him, apart from the fact that all his French form suggests that he wants much softer ground than he is going to get today (ideally heavy).
Which leaves Bigbadjohn…
He’s the third 10 year old in the race - and to be honest, has a tick in pretty much every box !
He has his first run today, for over 4 months - but he has a good record when fresh.
His best form is on good ground (which he will get) - and he’s won before at Ascot (over todays distance).
He has a preference for small fields (10 should just about be OK) - and he’s not badly handicapped.
He may not win - but I couldn’t ask for many more positives from his profile !
Of the others, then Josses Hill could be dangerous, because he has plenty of back class.
That said, his recent form isn't inspiring - and it’s always dangerous looking at the back class of horses who are clearly past their prime…


Limerick

2:20

This is not really a race I could consider tipping in (due to the strength of the market - and the bookmaker margins) - but if it had been possible, I would have been tempted by Star Max.
Joseph O’Brien has a very strong hand of juvenile hurdlers and this one had been progressing nicely, prior to his most recent run in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He was quite well fancied for that race - sent off 8/1 second favourite, behind his stablemate Band of Outlaws - but he ran disappointingly and never really featured.
You have to be prepared to forgive him that run - but it often pays to forgive a horse one bad run.
Certainly, based on his 3 previous runs over hurdles, he has a decent chance in this  - and the fact he is trained by Joseph O’Brien, is a definite bonus.
In truth, this isn’t a race where it’s easy to get a handle on all of the runners.
Maze Runner is an understandable favourite, having finished second to Band of Outlaws on his most recent outing.
There’s a chance that run flatters him - but trained by Willie Mullins, he was never going to be much of a price.
Plenty of the others are tricky to assess - so it’s not a race where you could be overly confident.
That said, Star Max looks to have a better chance than most - and at around 8/1, doesn’t look a bad bet…

4:05

I think it is worth taking a chance on Robin de Foret in this.
He’s the apparent second string of Willie Mullins - and has to give weight to all of his rivals - but I still think he is worth siding with.
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - and on his preferred decent ground, I think that will unlock improvement.
He’s already the highest rated horse in the race, on official ratings - so if he is able to raise his game, then he will definitely take a bit of beating.
Certainly his hurdles form suggests that todays test is precisely what he needs.
He has won on heavy ground - but his best form is on a quick surface; similarly, he’s won over 2 miles - but has better form over further.
He disappointed on his most recent start, after a winter break - but he was hampered early in that race, so the run can be ignored.
His 2 previous runs in the autumn, were both very good: when runner up to Le Richebourg and when falling at the third last behind Winter Escape.
Based on those 2 runs, he is definitely the one to beat in todays race…
Obviously, the fact that he has apparently been over-looked by Ruby Walsh, in favour of stablemate Burrows Saint, is a concern.
However that one looks to need some cut in the ground - so today conditions could be an issue for him. He’s also unproven over todays trip - and therefore doesn’t hold much appeal at a price of 6/4.
Non of the others have form to match that of Robin des Forets - and they are all relatively exposed (so there is no reason to expect significant improvement).
In short, Robin des Foret represents a fair bet, at the available odds.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Asc 3:55 Eddiemaurice 1pt win 8/1
Asc 4:30 Bigbadjohn 1pt win 6/1
Lim 4:05 Robin des Foret 1pt win 7/1  (pre R4)

Mentions

Asc 2:45 Honorable (S )
Asc 3:20 Favorito Bucks (P )
Lim 2:20 Star Max (C )