It’s been a tough week so far - but I kind of expected that.
It’s getting harder and harder to find decent bets at Cheltenham.
Yesterday, there were 6 very well backed winners - and one complete rag.
As a ‘value bettor’, that’s not a set of results that I would want…
I felt that all of the well backed winners, had been put in plenty short enough in the morning - yet they were all backed in to even shorter.
Sire du Berlais was a classic example: 11/2 in the morning - became 4/1 at the off.
I thought it might happen - but there is no way I could have got involved with the horse, using conventional measures of price and value.
However, they seem to count for little at Cheltenham - which is concerning…
In truth, this isn't the first year this has happened - and I do need to think long and hard about how I tackle future Cheltenhams.
The TVB season is 5 months long - and I don’t want the results skewed by 4 crazy days betting !
Anyway, enough of the defeatest talk - and on to finding some winners !
Unfortunately, today looks tough (even by this weeks standards !).
I’ve managed to find a few tips - though I’ve adopted a slightly different approach.
I’ve gone for a couple in each of the days 3 handicaps - and have tipped what I consider the most likely winner, in addition to a ‘value’ bet…
There are also a couple of ante-post positions, from earlier in the season.
Hopefully at least one of the tips will come home in front, and rescue the week !
Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other races…
Cheltenham
1:30
Sir Erec is ridiculously short for this, based on his form over hurdles - but I suspect he will win.
Rated 105 on the flat (which is group class), he is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He won narrowly on his debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, before following up in the Grade 1 Spring juvenile at the Dublin festival, in February.
He was impressive on the latter occasion - but had the run of the race from the front - and his 6 length winning margin, probably flatters him.
Certainly, on his debut win, he has little in hand of Tiger Tap Tap.
He beat that one by just a neck, so he must be theoretical value, at 10/1…
However, Sir Erec is trained by Joseph O’Brien and he has an extremely strong hand of juvenile hurdlers.
His Fakir D’oudaries was sent off joint favourite for the Supreme on Tuesday, having been re-routed from this race, to avoid clashing with Sir Erec.
He also trained Band of Outlaws, who won the Fred Winter on Wednesday, having been backed as if defeat was out the question (which it was !).
Sir Erec is apparently considered in a different league to those two - and as a consequence, he is going to be very hard to beat today.
In truth, even if I felt it was worth the risk to take him on, I don’t know what I would oppose him with.
Whilst half cases can be made for a few of his opponents, non of them have stand out credentials.
For those who fancy a real punt, then Hannon EW, is quite interesting.
However, for those who just want to back a winner, Sir Erec is almost certainly the way to go…
2:10
The first of the days big handicaps - and arguably the most open of the 3.
I reckon that a chance can be given to at least half the runners - though I’m sure the market will have polarised its opinion, come the off !
I’ve decided to take 2 Irish trained runners against the field: one trained by Willie Mullins and the other by Gordon Elliott - so there is nothing wrong with their credentials !
Both trainers saddle 3 in the race, so the first challenge, is working out their best chance.
For Mullins, I hope it is Mr Adjudicator, who is ridden by Paul Townend (Ruby is on the favourite, Whiskey Sour).
Mr Adjudicator finished second in last seasons Triumph hurdle, beaten a couple of lengths by Farclas.
He followed up that run, by occupying the same position in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
He’s only run once this season - when once again finishing second, this time at Naas.
He was actually little flattered by the result that day, as Saldier (the horse who beat him at Punchestown), would have finished ahead of him but for falling at the last.
That said, the winner of the race was Espoir Dallen - and following his romp in the Champion on Tuesday, an 11 length defeat, doesn’t look too bad !
In truth, it’s hard to get a proper handle on Mr Adjudicator.
However, there is a chance that he is top class - and even off a mark of 149, I think he is worth a risk.
Eclair de Beaufeur is the other one I want on side.
He’s ridden by Jack Kennedy - and does appear to be the main hope for Gordon Elliott.
He’s a relatively inexperienced novice, who seems to be progressing - and who ran really well on his handicap debut, last time out.
That was in a very valuable handicap at the Dublin festival - and his fourth placing was an excellent effort, considering his inexperience.
If he can build on that run, then I think he has every chance, this afternoon..,.
Of the others, then a case could be made for plenty - though nothing more compelling than the cases for Mr Adjudicator and Eclair de Beaufeur.
2:50
Whilst this may not be a handicap, it’s as tricky to unravel as any handicap that’s been run all week.
Historically, it’s a race which has been won by a ‘tough’ horse, so the inclination is to oppose those with limited experience (which includes a few of the market leaders).
However, even applying that criteria, leaves far more who have a chance, than I feel comfortable with…
My original intention was to tip Derrinross.
However, the form of his defeats of Sams Profile and Defi Bleu, doesn’t look as strong as I would like.
He’s definitely got possibilities - but his odds of 10/1, look about right…
Of the market leaders, then Lisnagar Oscar and Commander of Fleet are the 2 of most interest - but I really couldn’t back anything at single figures, in this race.
Plenty of the outsiders can be given half chances, including Salsaretta, Nadaitak and First Approach - but it would be tough to choose just one of them to side with, and I don’t really want to be taking 3 speculative shots at the race (at a minimum !).
On balance, I feel it’s a race that can only be watched.
I honestly think that a case could be made for at least 15 of the runners - and whilst there is almost certainly some theoretical value in the race, you’ll need a fair bit of luck in order to land on the winner…
3:30
The 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup looks only marginally easier to solve than the race that precedes it !
16 runners - of which at least half can be given a chance.
As is so often the case in these races, rhythm and jumping are likely to be the deciding factors - but figuring those out in advance, is virtually impossible.
Presenting Percy and Clan des Obeux head the market - and I think that is right.
They are both young progressive chasers, who should be well suited to todays test.
I certainly prefer them to last seasons winner, Native River.
Everything fell right for him last season - and I’ll be surprised if that happens again today.
I could see him getting placed - but I can’t see him winning…
Kemboy, Belshill, Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only, all represent Willie Mullins and they have a chance of breaking his duck in the race.
That said, I’m not convinced that any of them are quite up to the level required to win a Gold Cup.
Of the 4, I just prefer the chances of Al Boum Photo - though he would be better on softer ground and over a slightly shorter trip.
Might Bite and Thistlecrack have both been top class horses - but it’s rare for a Gold Cup to be won by a horse of their ages (10 & 11) - particularly when the field is as strong as todays.
And then there is Shattered Love…
I tipped her ante post, just before she ran in the Savill chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
She finished last in the race (not ideal !) - but she hated the ground.
She’s not run since - and has under gone a wind op in the interim.
On her form from last season, she can be given a chance.
She was most impressive when winning the JLT; and then ran Al Boum Photo close, when probably not quite at her peak.
I’m absolutely sure that Gordon Elliott will have her spot on for today - and whilst she needs to find about 10lb of improvement to have a chance of winning, that’s not impossible.
If you’ve not yet backed her, then at 25/1 or better, she is worth a small play (maybe EW).
As for the most likely winner: then I would suggest Clan des Obeaux - but in such a strong race, he can’t be a bet, at just 9/2…
4:10
Whilst 24 might go to post for this, I suspect that only half a dozen of them, will actually count…
Unsurprisingly, those half dozen all sit at the head of the betting - and thankfully, they include Shantou Flyer.
I put him up as an ante-post tip last month - and he was a risky one, to say the least !
In order to just get a run in todays race, he first needed to finish in the top 2 in a couple of hunter chases - and the poor weather and equine flu, nearly managed to prevent him from achieving that.
However, he somehow did it: by first wining at Kelso - and then following up at Fontwell, 10 days later…
In truth, neither victory was achieved as I would have liked: he was very laboured at Kelso - and then seemed to endure a particularly hard race at Fontwell.
Still, he’s made it here - and had almost 3 weeks to recover from his most recent run.
Assuming that race didn’t bottom him, then I doubt he’ll want for fitness !
And in her does arrive in peak form, then I really think he will take a bit of beating.
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race - behind Ucello Conti - but unlike that one, Shantou Flyer is still at his peak (9 years old) and has very strong festival form.
It’s also very interesting that he gets a change of head gear today.
I suspect the horse is a bit of a thinker. He wore cheek pieces for the first time, when second at the course on new Years day last year; and then sported a first time visor when runner up in last years Ultima.
Hopefully the blinkers which have been enlisted today, will encourage him to put his best foot forward.
The dangers are obvious: in addition to Ucelle Conti, they are Stand up and Fight, Hazel Hill, Caid du Berlais and Road to Rome.
All 5 can be given a chance and I wouldn’t want to pick between them.
That said, if Shantou Flyer runs as well as he can, then I think he will be very hard to beat…
4:50
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race - and I think it is worth siding with a couple of his runners, to keep that going…
Le Prezien won the race for him last season and it’s hard to think that he won’t go very close again today, off a mark just 1lb higher.
This kind of race is always going to suit Le Prezien, because it tends to be run at a million miles an hour.
If Barry Geraghty can get him settled and jumping out the back, then there is a good chance he will be able to pick off his rivals up the home straight.
That’s what happened 12 months ago - and there is a distinct possibility that it will happen again this afternoon.
The caveats are that his jumping will need to hold up - and the ground will need to be soft-ish.
Assuming that is the case, then I think he could take a bit of stopping.
That said, there is a chance that his stablemate, Magic Star, will prove too well handicapped for him to handle…
He was an eye catcher on his UK debut - and whilst he seemed to disappoint next time, subsequent events showed that his run at Ascot, behind Hell’s Kitchen and Janika, was much better than it looked at the time.
On his only subsequent run, he hacked up at Wincanton, having been backed at if defeat was out of the question.
He’s been raised 7lb for that win - but he’s a young progressive horse - and that may not stop him…
Of the others, then Not Another Muddle and Minds Eye look the biggest dangers - but like Magic Star, they have been well found in the market - and I prefer his chances.
Of the outsiders, then Mr Medic is the one that interest me most, stepping back in trip.
However, he needs decent ground to be at his best…
5:30
The final race of the 2019 festival - and whilst 24 runners and conditional jockeys suggest anything could happen, I suspect that the outcome could be quite predictable…
Dallas des Pictons and Early Doors dominate the market - and I won’t be overly surprised if they dominate the race.
Both have very strong credentials: with the former looking a horse on a serious upward curve: and the latter appearing to have been targeted at this race, having finished third in the corresponding contest 12 months ago.
I could have sided with either - but at 3/1 Dalla des Pictons and 11/2 Early Doors, the market effectively made the decision for me.
It strikes me as very significant that Jonjo O’Neill Jnr rides Early Doors, when Big Time Dancer is also in the race.
That horse gave him the biggest win of his career, so far, when wining the Lanzarote last time at Kempton.
Getting off him can’t have been an easy thing to do - and just adds more weight to the argument that Early Doors has been targeted at the race.
There is little that can be taken from his 3 runs, since last seasons festival - as in 2 of them, he has finished miles behind Apples Jade.
However, I suspect those outings were simply about keeping him ticking over - with today the day that really counts…
Whilst I do expect the race to be dominated by the 2 market leaders, as we’ve seen a couple of times this week, they can some times blow out.
In case that happens, then I think it is worth also having Coolanley on side, as he looks massively over-priced…
He won a grade 2 over today course in November - and whilst he has disappointed in his 2 subsequent races, if Fergal O’Brien can get him back to peak form today, he would have a real chance.
Certainly, his mark of 140 looks feasible - and booking of Conor Brace, is a definite positive.
At 33/1, he is just too tempting to resist..!
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 2:10 Mr Adjudicator 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 2:10 Eclair de Beaufeu 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 3:30 Shattered Love 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Shantou Flyer 0.5pt win 14/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:50 Magic Saint 0.5pt win 5/1
Chel 4:50 Le Prezien 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 5:30 Early Doors 0.5pt win 11/2
Chel 5:30 Coolanley 0.5pt win 33/1
Mentions
Chel 1:30 Hannon EW
Chel 2:50 Derrinross (O )
No comments:
Post a Comment