I think I’m getting old: it certainly doesn’t seem 12 months since the last one !
In fact, I’ve lost count of the number of festivals that I’ve now previewed (I think this is the eighth one - though I could be wrong).
There have been some great races during that time - and some great memories - and I’m sure this years festival won’t disappoint (it never does).
What might disappoint however, is the weather !
I said a few weeks back that what I hated most with this job, was rain (or the threat of rain), on a Friday evening.
I’d like to change that: what I actually hate most, is rain (or the threat of rain), on the Monday evening, before the Cheltenham festival starts !
Yet that is exactly what we got - and it’s the threat of significant rain (up to 15mm).
As things currently stand the ground looks a perfect mix of good to soft - soft in places, with a thick covering of grass.
However, what it will be like when this afternoons races are run, is anyones guess…
I suspect it will be soft - and that will put a very different slant on things.
It will also make it harder to figure out what will happen for the rest of the week - as the ground may dry out - or further rain may fall.
I guess nobody said it was easy…
We have 2 choices: either to take an educated guess on conditions: or accept we won’t know and give the racing a miss !
In truth, there isn’t really a choice…
That said, my tendency is to tread carefully - at least on day 1.
The racing is brilliant - but it would be very hard to assess, even if we knew how the ground was riding.
With that key piece of info missing (at least, when decisions on tips needed to be made), it makes sense to ease in gradually…
As you would expect, I’ve previewed all of the afternoons races - but I’ve not gone mad with the tips.
Hopefully we’ll have more clarity on conditions, as the week progresses…
Here are my thoughts on day 1.
Cheltenham
1:30
This is an absolute cracker to start the meeting with - though identifying the winner, certainly isn’t easy…
Of the 3 market leaders, I prefer the chances of Angel Breath to that of Al Dancer and Klassical Dream. The latter in particular, looks under-priced at 5/1 (he has nothing in hand of Aramon, on their meeting at the Dublin racing festival).
I’ve no major issue with Al Dancer - and I would expect him to run well - I just think he looks beatable and 5/1 is too short a price…
Arguably it is too short a price for Angel Breath - but he’s a horse with huge potential (and a reputation to match), so I think it’s harder to judge the ‘right’ price for him.
Whatever, I think he is just about the most likely winner…
That said, Fakir D’oudaries is a real danger - re-routed to this, from the Triumph hurdle.
He was really impressive when winning the juvenile race on trial day at the end of January - though how that form will translate in all age company, is anyones guess…
The race would be strong enough if just those 4 were running - but there are at least another half dozen, all of whom can be given a chance of sorts…
Both Aramon and Vision D’honneur, have form that gives them almost the same chance as Klassical Dream (and makes them better bets !).
I suspect both are unlikely winners - but either could be placed.
Grand Sancy, Mister Fisher, Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet, have all got form that links in with Elixir de Nutz.
He was withdrawn from the race yesterday evening - but looked to have a fair chance.
By definition, the 4 named, therefore can be given a chance (at least of placing) - though soft ground could be an issue for the last 3…
It’s not even possible to completely eliminated, Felix Desjy, Brandon Castle, The Big bite or Tokay Dokey - which shows just how open the race is !
If forced to select the most likely winner, I’d go with Angel Breath; whilst Al Dancer looks the one most likely to place.
There are plenty of each way, value options - and the ground is likely to have a big effect on which horses run well.
Assuming it is on the soft side, the Grand Sancy, could run in to a place at 14/1: whilst if the ground were to remain on the good side, Itchy Feet would be very interesting, at 33/1.
2:10
There could be some serious pace in this race, with Knocknanus and Ornua both habitual front runners: and Articulm, Clondaw Castle, Duc de Genieveres, Paloma Blue and Glen Forsa all having lead last time.
Clearly the race can’t be run to suit all 7 - so something will have to give.
I doubt it will be either Knocknanus or Ornua, so it’s to be hoped that the other 5 are happy to slot in !
I suspect that Duc de Genievres and Glen Forsa will do just that - but that means they won’t be able to duplicate the run style which has resulted in recent impressive wins.
We will find out this afternoon, whether they are adaptable, with regard to racing style…
Plenty of race pace, shouldn’t be an issue for Lalor, Hardline or Kalashnikov - and that makes them safer bets.
That said, soft ground won’t be ideal for Lalor: whilst Hardlines best form is arguably at half a mile further.
His stamina should be an asset this afternoon - but that is also the case for Kalashnikov.
In fact, Kalashnikov, has ticks in plenty of boxes…
He was just about the best of the runners over hurdles - with his second placing in last years Supreme novice hurdle, demonstrating an aptitude for the course.
He will have no issue, with softening ground - in fact, his best form has been shown under testing conditions.
At 6, he’s the youngest runner in the field - but his 4 runs over fences mean that he’s not short in fencing experience.
The only real blip in his credentials, is his last time out defeat to Glen Forsa at Sandown.
He was sent off a very short priced favourite that day, but Glen Forsa destroyed him, with quick accurate jumping.
However, Sandown is a very different track to Cheltenham (sharper and right handed) - and allowed to get into a rhythm, there must be a chance that the form flatters Glen Forsa (and shows Kalashnikov in a poor light).
Certainly, I’m prepared to ignore it - and without that run is his record, Kalashnikov would be close to favourite for this…
Jack Quilan will need to make sure he keeps involved - and to achieve that the horse will need to jump well.
However, if that happens, then I think he has every chance of winning.
Certainly I think that odds of around 9/1 under-estimates his chance.
2:50
I am fearful that the conditions will mess things up for Minella Rocco In this…
I took a chance on him, last week - when the ground was forecast as ‘good to soft’ - and on that ground, I’d be very keen on him.
However, he really doesn’t want it soft - never mind heavy - so if it does rain all morning, I doubt he will feature…
And that’s a shame, because I could construct a very strong case for him !
On his 2 previous runs at the festival, he’s won the 4 miler (beating subsequent Gold Cup winner, Native River) - and finished runner up in the Gold Cup (to Sizing John).
Those 2 runs, suggest he is capable of running to a mark of around 170 - yet today, he runs off a mark of just 152 !
That’ s because he has disappointed a few times since his Gold Cup run - though I think there were good reasons for most of those poor runs.
His most recent effort over hurdles at Exeter, suggested that the ability still remains - and I suspect that Jonjo will have him spot on for today (it’s a race he has won 3 rimes, in the past 10 years).
If the sun was shining, then I don’t think we would need look anywhere else for the race winner - but with storm clouds above, we might…
The trouble is, take him out of the race and it looks a lot harder to call…
I considered a saver on last years winner, Coo Star Sivola - but there is no margin in a price of 10/1 for a horse who ran very poorly last time.
Noble Endeavour is another one I considered getting on side - but even more guesswork is required with him, as he’s only run once in the past 2 years…
Both have a chance - but so do Up for Review, Give me a Copper and Mister Whitaker - and that’s just from the top of the market.
There is also the question mark over ground conditions - as very soft would greatly help the chance of Beware the Bear and Vintage Clouds…
On balance, I decided that it didn’t make sense to get involved further with the race.
If somehow, the rain stays away, then I think we are on the right horse: if it pours down, then we probably aren’t - but it’s not easy to decide which the right one is !
3:30
It seems crazy to see dual Champion hurdler, Buveur D’air as big as 11/4 for this…
It’s not as if he’s done much wrong this season: an imperious win on his seasonal debut, when he looked better than ever, was admittedly followed by a disappointing defeat in the Christmas hurdle. However, on ground too quick - and a track to sharp - that is relatively easy to forgive.
His last time win, at Sandown suggested he was just as good as ever - and under ideal conditions today, he is going to take the world of beating…
The trouble for him is that he is opposed by 2 high class mares - and he has to give them both 7lb.
The question is whether he will be up to the job…?
No one knows for sure - but I do think that it’s very much in his favour, that 2 miles is his trip, whereas both Apples Jade and Laurina, would both prefer further…
As is so often the case in tight races, jockeyship could well be key.
Jack Kennedy is likely to try to make all on Apples Jade - with Barry and Ruby tracking him, on Buveur D’air and Laurina, respectively…
I’ll be a little surprised if Luarina is good enough (though in truth, we don’t know where the ceiling of her ability lies); however, I’ll be far less surprised, if Buveur D’air proves to be Apples Jades master…
I can see Barry tracking her until after the last - and then powering past on the run in.
It could be argued that 11/4 is a price worth getting involved with - and I certainly wouldn’t dissuade anyone who wanted an interest.
However, this strikes me as an exceptional horse race - which I’ll be more than happy, just to watch unfold, without financial interest…
4:10
If she weren’t being touted as Willie Mullins best chance of the week, I wonder what price Benie des Dieux would be in this…
It’s true that she won the corresponding race last season: but Apples Jade ran well below her best, so she only beat the 145 rated (and fully exposed) Midnight Tour, by half a length.
That form gives her a chance today - but it certainly doesn’t make her an even money shot…
Obviously you have to respect what Willie and Ruby say - but at the odds, she really should be taken on…
I’m not that keen on her stable-mates either: with both Limini and Stormy Island looking beatable.
The suggestion is therefore, that there could be some serious value in the race - and maybe I should have had more of a crack at it.
The trouble is, even eliminating the Mullins trio, it still looks a tough race to call…
Roksana is the obvious one - particularly as Dan Skelton seems to have teed her up for the race.
However, she has plenty on, ratings-wise - and 7/1 is a tight enough price.
Lady Buttons has a better chance, based on ratings - but she struggled to win last time and I wonder if she’s had enough for the season.
Momella appears to be a better bet - and I think she is worth having on side.
She has good course form, will be suited by the 2m4f trip - and will relish soft ground (assuming that’s what we get !).
She will be having just her third run for Harry Fry this afternoon - having disappointed on her first 2.
however, her form from last season, shows that she is capable of operating at this level - and there is a possibility that she may have improved...
The obvious play is each way - but I’m happy to go win only, with Benie looking vulnerable - and Momella herself, lacking consistency.
The final one of interest in the race, is Jester Jet.
She’s another who should relish conditions - and it’s hard to see her not running her race.
I think she looks less likely than Momella to win - but more likely to place.
She could be worth a small EW saver…
4:50
With 20 relatively unexposed runners, this looks very tough race to call.
In truth, a case could be made for most of the runners - but I do quite like the claims of A Plus Tard.
I’m obliviously not the only one, as he was installed early favourite - but in a race like this, most of the runners will get backed, so I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go off a decent price (at least 7/1).
He’s actually the youngest runner in the race, at just 5 - but he has plenty of experience, having run 5 times in his native France, before moving to Ireland.
He’s run 3 times for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland - and shaped with real promise on each occasion.
He finished runner up on his debut in a decent beginners chase at Gowran in November; and followed that up by taking a similar race at Naas, in December.
The form of that run now looks particularly strong, as he beat Duc de Genievres - and that one is third favourite for todays Arkle.
A Plus Tards most recent run, was when runner up to Winter Escape in a grade 3 at Punchestown in January.
To be honest, I’m a little surprised that he’s been given a rating, low enough to enable him to get into todays race - as it strikes me that he’s really a graded performer.
In truth, he may need to be just that, in order to win, as it’s s strong field - and a few of the other runners could also have plenty in hand of their mark.
That said, I suspect most of the main dangers will be Irish trained - as I can’t see a UK trained horse with the same potential as A Plus Tard.
Good Man Pat looks like the best of the UK runners to me - but I’m not sure he will relish soft ground.
Such conditions will hold no fears for Springtown Boy or Highway One o One - but they don’t strike me as being massively ahead of their marks…
The Irish runners are far more difficult to assess.
Tower Bridge looks to have been laid out for the race - though his stable/owner companion Shady Operator, also looks interesting.
Riders onthe Storm, has a similar profile to A Plus Tard (without looking quite as good !); whilst Ben Dundee, is one who I could see running well, at a price.
It’s certainly not a race where you can be dogmatic.
However, A Plus Tard has a near flawless profile - and massive scope.
He’s a deserving favourite - and I hope he can come home in front.
5:30
If the rain does materialise in the expected quantities, then this could end up a war…
That’s not going to suit OK Corral - who is probably the best horse in the race.
He’s also got the best jockey in the race (Derek O Connor) - and is owned by JP Mcmanus, who is particularly keen to win the race.
He is not taken on lightly - but his stablemate, Chef des Obeaux, could be worth a small play against him.
Unlike OK Corral, Chef des Obeaux will relish any rain - and whilst he’s not yet shown himself as good as OK Corral over fences, he was of a similar ability of hurdles.
In fact, when the 2 of them contested last seasons Albert Bartlett, Chef des Obeaux was sent off a 6/1 shot - with OK Corral at 16/1.
Chef des Obeaux didn’t get home that day - and also finished behind OK Corral at Aintree, but he was only 6 at the time, so maybe it was all a bit much for him…
He’s run 3 times over fences this season - and whilst he’s not yet set the world alight, there has been steady improvement.
A debut third at Uttoxeter, was followed by an unseat when still in contention at Chepstow - and then a hard fought win at the same course, 3 weeks ago.
That last run showed that Chef des Obeauxs strength is his stamina - and I can see that coming in very handy today !
In truth, this is not a race where you could feel overly confident about any of the runners,
With the doubts over OK Corral, Ballyward and Discorama look like the 2 to beat - but they hardly set an insurmountable standard.
Atalanta Ablaze is theoretically interesting, with her mares allowance; whilst I could see Whisperinthebreeze running very well for a chunk of the race - but then not quite getting home…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 2:10 Kalashnikov 1pt win 9/1
Chel 2:50 Minella Rocco 1pt win 9/1
Chel 4:10 Momella 0.5pt win 20/1
Chel 4:50 A Plus Tard 1pt win 7/1
Chel 5:30 Chef des Obeaux 0.5pt win 20/1
Mentions
Chel 1:30 Angel Breath (O )
Chel 3:30 Buveur D’Air (O )
Dobbers
Chel 5:30 Whisperinthebreeze
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