Saturday 30 March 2019

Review of the day

It was nice to finish the month with a winner - though I couldn’t help but feel that things should have been even better…

The win came courtesy of Eddiemaurice, who got up under a pulsating drive from Jamie Moore, to deny Caid du Lin in the shadows of the post.

As I said this morning, I viewed Caid du Lin as the main danger to Eddiemaurice, and I got within an inch of having a saver on him.

He had drifted out to 5/1 at 10:30 - which I thought was an acceptable price: but was then trimmed back to 9/2, just before 11:00.
It was a borderline call - and ultimately it didn’t matter - but I would have been gutted if the photo finish had gone the other way !

For once however, fate smiled on us - and in truth, it was nothing less than Eddie and Jamie deserved…

Interestingly, despite an SP of 6/1 - his BSP was almost 9/1.
Every winner that I have tipped during March, has had a bigger BSP than the advised price - which is certainly food for thought (and should help to discourage chasing down prices, when the tips are issued !)

I did think that Robin des Foret was going to deliver a second win on the day, just 10 mins later.

Ridden very patiently by Paul Townend, he came there cruising after the second last (traded at 1.34 in running).
However, not for the first time this season, Ruby denied us a payout - this time by galvanising Burrows Saint.

My feeling was that Robin des Foret didn’t really stay the trip - whereas I had expected him to improve for it.
I guess I can’t read everything right !

Bigbadjohn was the final tip on day - and he ran a little disappointingly…

He gave up the outside to no one (which I think is because he doesn’t like to be crowded in his races) - and his jumping wasn’t fluent.

Despite that, he still looked to have a decent chance, a mile from home - but then the race temp quickened and he got outpaced.
He was staying on again at the end - but it wasn’t enough to even get him a place…

As for the Mentions:
Then there was a bit of frustration that I felt unable to tip Star Max.
As you all know, I try to play the tipping as fairly as possible: issuing only when people can get on (without fear of account closure !) - and in races with robust markets.
Star Max was running in a relatively minor race, which I wouldn’t have felt comfortable tipping in.
That was a shame as he performed as I hoped - and ended up a game winner.
I know that quite a few of you backed him 'unofficially', which is always a consolation.
TVB - the service that gives a little bit more :)

The days 2 other mentions ran at Ascot.
Honorable never really featured in a very competitive juvenile hurdle: whilst Favorito Bucks was always flat out, trying to get himself into the right position in the handicap chase.
I was pleased that I didn’t chase down the price on him.
I fancied him strongly - but was aware that the trip could be an issue and therefore demanded some margin in his price.

Simply, you have to show discipline with prices, if you are going to bet profitably…

TVB.

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