Daily write-up - Apr 4th (Aintree Day 1)

Day 1 of the Aintree Grand National meeting…

As was the case at Cheltenham, the weather has decided that it would be amusing to try and mess things up !

Considering how little rain we’ve had over the past 5 months, it’s staggering that we had significant rainfall in the build up to Cheltenham - and the same thing has happened again this week.

Consequently, we can only guess on the state of the ground on the opening day.
My guess is on the soft side of good - assuming there’s no more rain before racing gets underway !

In addition to having to guess the state of the ground, we’ve also got to guess the state of the horses who ran at Cheltenham.

This is a perennial issue at Aintree - just how much did the Cheltenham exertions take out of the various runners ?

Of course, it varies from horse to horse - and so is impossible to generalise on.
It’s also impossible to know for sure, until it’s too late !

Needless to say, all the uncertainty doesn't make things any easier !

What does make things easier (compared to Cheltenham), is that field sizes tend to be a bit smaller - and we have a bit more relevant form to work with…

Ultimately, I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day - but across just 4 of the races.

I’ve paired back a bit on staking, as the competitive nature of racing, and very accurate markets - mean that either our edge is much smaller than normal, or the risk we take, much greater.
Either way, it doesn’t feel right to be staking at the same level, as during the rest of the season…

Anyway, here’s the rationale behind the horses that I’ve tipped - along with my thoughts on the other races on the card…


Aintree

1:45

Le Bague au Roi is clearly the one to beat in this.
On official ratings, she is just 1lb below the top rated horse in the race - yet she receives a 7lb sex allowance from all her rivals.
More than that, she is unbeaten in her 4 chase starts this season - and has a great attitude.
The form of her wins - particularly her penultimate victory in the Feltham chase at Kempton on Boxing day, stands up to the closest scrutiny.
She has been targeted at Aintree, so that she gets to run on a flat track (unlike Cheltenham) - and whilst todays trip on good-ish ground is likely to be the minimum distance she wants, there should be lots of pace in the race, and Dickie Johnson will almost certainly make plenty of use of her.
She is very much the one to beat - and a price of around 7/4 strikes me as perfectly fair…
In terms of her opponents, then she appears to hold the 3 outsiders in the race - either on direct form, or collateral form.
Le Bague as Roi comfortably beat Spiritofthegames, at Newbury in November: whilst she has twice proven herself the superior of Lostintranslation, and that one finished well ahead of Mengli Khan the JLT at the Cheltenham festival.
Castafiore finished even further back that day - yet on her previous outing he had run Bags Groove close at Kempton.
The suggestion being that Bags Groove shouldn’t be able to beat Le Bague au Roi.
As a consequence, the 2 main dangers to the mare, appear to be Glen Forsa and Kalashnikov.
They both ran in the Arkle last time - with neither completing.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see them improve for a step up in trip today - but whether they will improve sufficiently to beat Le Bague au Roi, is a different matter.
Of the 2, I prefer the chance of Kalashnikov - and if there is a bet in the race, it is probably him at 5/1.
That said, I think Le Bague au Roi is the more likely winner - which makes tipping him at that price, a bit tricky…

2:20

Understandably, Pentland Hills and Band of Outlaws dominate the market for this…
They took the 2 juvenile races at the Cheltenham festival: with Pentland Hills capturing the grade 1 Triumph hurdle and Band of Outlaws the Fred Winter handicap.
Ordinarily, you would expect the winner of the Triumph to be superior to the winner of the Fred Winter.
However, with Sir Erec breaking down in the Triumph, that race ended up relatively weak; whilst Band of Outlaws was was a scintillating winner of the Fred Winter (having been backed as if defeat was out of the question).
The suggestion is that there may not be much between the pair - and I actually prefer the claims of Band of Outlaws…
Third favourite is Fakir D’oudaries. He also ran at the festival, when finishing fourth in the all age Supreme hurdle.
He was sent off favourite for that race, and whilst he was ultimately quite well beaten, he still ran a fair race.
That said, his forte does appear to be stamina, so it’s questionable whether the quicker Aintree track will suit his as well as Cheltenham did…
Christopher Wood is next in the betting - and unlike his 3 main rivals, he didn’t run at Cheltenham.
I would view that as a positive - though it does mean that we can only guess as to how much ability he has. That said, the official assessor has given him a rating of 142 - just 7lb shy of Band of Outlaws.
He certainly has plenty of scope - so I there is a definite chance that he he can improve past the market principals.
Whilst his flat rating of 85, is superior to that of Pentland Hills - and he’s shown a good aptitude for hurdling.
Band of Outlaws looks like he’s the one to beat - particularly as he was rated higher than Christopher Wood on the flat.
That said, his price is plenty short enough (7/4) - and he did have quite a tough race at Cheltenham.
In the circumstances, I think Christopher Wood is worth a small risk.

2:50

This is a tough race to call…
A case can be made for all 4 of the markets leaders - but I think that Bristol de Mai represents a bit of value, at 4/1.
He finished third in the Gold Cup - 2 places and 5 lengths ahead of Clan des Obeaux.
He had also beaten the same horse earlier in the season. at Haydock - and when finishing second in this race 12 months ago (behind Might Bite).
Assuming he’s at his peak, the form book says he’s the most likely winner.
However, following a very hard race in the Gold Cup, he is not guaranteed to be at his peak - however, at a price 4/1, I think he is worth a risk.
Certainly, he makes more appeal than Clan des Obeaux does at 5/2 - even if that one still seems to be improving.
The 2 other market leaders are Kemboy and Road to Respect - and based on their run at Leopardstown over Christmas, the former should come out best in their duel.
However, I think he could have been flattered by that run and at their respective odds (5/2 and 5/1), Road to Respect holds the greater appeal (but not quite as much as Bristol de Mai).
It’s hard to make a case for Elegant Escape, as he’s likely to find this an insufficient test of stamina.
Balko des Flos on the other hand, is quite interesting - even if it requires an act of faith to support him bouncing back to form today, after a number of poor runs.
That said, he travelled powerfully for a lot of the race last time in the Ryanair Chase - and definitely makes some appeal, at 33/1.
He ran Road to Respect close in last seasons Irish Gold Cup, and if back to that level of form, he could be right in the mix this afternoon.

3:25

It’s quite tempting to take on Buveur D’air in this…
On official ratings, he has at least 8lb on hand of all of his rivals - and a stone in hand of most of them.
However, aside from a seasonal debut, which may have flattered him, he’s not looked at his best this season - and he also comes here on the back of a mid-race fall in the Champion hurdle.
That’s not really the profile you would want for an odds-on shot - the problem is finding one to oppose him with…
Faugheen should be obvious one - however he’s now 11 and in decline. I will be surprised if he is good enough to win.
It’s a similar story with Supasundae. I tipped him in the stayers race at Cheltenham - but he ran disappointingly. Whilst it’s true that he may not have stayed the trip, he was under pressure, a long way out - and that’s harder to explain.
If he were to bounce back to his best, he could certainly give Buveur D’air a race - but I’m not sure that’s going to happen…
Aside from those 2, all of the other runners have at least a stone to find with Buveur D’air on official ratings - and most are unproven over the trip.
Consequently, it’s hard to select one with any confidence, to beat him…
Summerville Boy is perhaps the most interesting - though he has also got the most to prove.
Based on his novice form from last season, a case could be constructed - but he’s been massively disappointing in his 2 run this season (though admittedly, he did injure himself last time).
For those desperate for a bit of action, he could be worth a tiny play - but officially speaking, I feel that it has to be a watching race…

4:05

When I looked at this race with no awareness of the betting, I felt that Road to Rome was the most interesting runner.
He ran a huge race in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham last time out, attacking from the front and only getting caught on the run to the last.
He should get home fine, over todays shorter trip - and his prominent racing style and sound jumping, will both be big assets.
However, whether they warrant him being a 7/2 shot in a 27 runner race over the Grand National fences, is a different matter !
The fences may be much easier to jump nowadays - but they still present a challenge: and in such a big field, luck can often play a part.
I think you would want around 3/1 about any horse to jump round cleanly - and not to meet interference.
That being the case, it doesn’t leave a lot of margin for him being the best horse in the race !
And I don’t think that’s guaranteed - even ignoring the fact that his Cheltenham run may have taken the edge off him.
In the circumstances, I felt I had to look elsewhere…
And the funny thing was, the more I looked, the more alternatives found !
Burning Ambition, Kruzlinin and Ucello Conti are the next 3 in the betting - and they all have a chance - but there are also quite a few at big prices, who make some appeal.
Chief amongst those is Sir Jack Yeats.
He ran in the corresponding race last year - and did reasonably well, despite having a far from ideal preparation.
He looks to have been targeted at the race this year: and as he’s still only 8 - and now has experience of the course under his belt - he looks a good bet at 18/1.
Greensalt also ran in the race last year - and he managed to finish a very honourable third.
He actually led over the last - but wandered on the run in and got passed by a couple of his rivals.
At 11, he’s younger than the horses who beat him last year - so there must be a decent chance he can reverse the form.
Like Sir Jack Yeats, he also look to have been targeted at the race - and whilst he may lack a touch of class, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to run another very big race.
Road to Riches and Pass the Hat are 2 more, at big prices (the latter, a very big price !), who I considered getting involved with - but I figured 2 darts at the race was probably sufficient !

4:40

My start point for this race, was Lady Buttons.
I’ve been really taken by her this season - and whilst she has climbed the handicap as a consequence of her efforts, I wouldn’t be surprised if she were capable of winning another decent race.
Thomas Dowson now rides her - and whilst he’s not been able to claim his allowance on her 2 most recent outings - he can do today.
I felt that would be sufficient to make her a tip - however, the form book says she can’t beat Diego du Charmil !
He beat her by 9 lengths at this meeting 12 months ago - and is 1lb better off today (ignoring the jockey claim).
Furthermore, he is the younger, less exposed horse - so should have greater scope for improvement.
Whether he has improved since then, is impossible to say.
He’s only run 4 times in the intervening period - and on 3 of throe occasions, he’s bumped into Altior in small field graded races.
Unsurprisingly he wasn’t up to beating him (or even getting particularly close) - but that would be the case for the entire equine population !
It’s is a slight worry that he has to carry top weight - but in absolute terms, a mark of 155 for a grade 1 winner, isn’t bad - and graded horses have an uncanny knack of winning handicaps, when they run in them…
There are plenty of others who could be considered for a second bet in the race - but I’ve opted to go to the other end of the handicap.
R’evelyn Pleasure receives 24lb from Diego du Charmil - which is a lot of weight !
In fairness, he’s not shown anything like the form of the top weight - but equally, he’s not had many chances to do so.
He’s a relatively unexposed novice, who has won 2 of his 6 races over fences and still seems to be improving.
Certainly he ran really well on his penultimate outing, in a hot handicap at the Dublin racing festival - and again last time behind Ex Patriot at Gowran.
On both occasions, he didn’t quite get home, so the relative speed test of Aintree should suit him well.
Eamon an Cnoc appears to head the list of dangers - and whilst I can’t really see it myself, plenty of good judges can ! (which makes me nervous !).
I can see an argument for Moon over Germany - but he was half the price of R’evelyn Pleasure and they are closely matched on Leopardstown form: Whilst I can also see argument for Champagne at Tara and Cracking Find, both at big prices.

5:15

The Glancing Queen sets the standard for this race, on the back of her fifth place in the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival.
That was a huge performance - and back against her own sex this afternoon, she should take a fair bit of beating - assuming she is capable of repeating the form.
In truth, that’s not guaranteed to happen: both because that run may have take an edge of her: and also because she may not be as well suited by todays track…
The strong market support for Minella Melody suggests that she could be hard to beat, this afternoon.
She was sent off at odds on for her debut at Gowran - and duly hacked up by 12 lengths.
It’s impossible to get a proper handle on the form - but it appears that she could be very good…
In truth, this is not a race that could be approached with any confidence, as virtually all of the runners are unexposed and capable of big improvement.
Farne was the one that interested me most, on the back of a third placing in a listed event at Sandown.
She finished behind Misty Whiskey that day - but travelled best in the race and is a fair bet to reverse the form, at the available odds (7/1 and 16/1).
The other one of moderate interest, is Who What When.
She is unbeaten in her 2 races - the second of those at listed level - and looks over-priced at 25/1 (presumably because of her connections).
The trouble is, it is completely guesswork as to whether either Farne or Who What When, will be good enough to win this much stronger contest.
In the circumstances, it has to be a watching race…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Aint 2:20 Christopher Wood 0.5pt win 11/1
Aint 2:50 Bristol de Mai 1pt win 4/1
Aint 2:50 Balko des Flos 0.25pt win 33/1 (saver)
Aint 4:05 Greensalt 0.25pt EW 33/1
Aint 4:05 Sir Jack Yeats 0.5pt win 18/1
Aint 4:40 R'evelyn Pleasure 0.5pt win 20/1
Aint 4:40 Diego du Charmil 0.5pt win 15/2

Mentions

Aint 1:45 Kalashnikov (O )
Aint 3:25 Summerville Boy (S )
Aint 5:15 Farne & Who What When (S )