Daily write-up - Nov 18th

It’s the final day of the Cheltenham November meeting.

There is also grade 1 action at Punchestown - and meetings at both Fontwell and Cork.

All in all, a very busy day !

The Southern National is the high-light of a very decent Fontwell meeting.

Given time, I’m sure I could find some bets on the card (Shanroe Santos looks interesting in the main event) - but there aren’t sufficient hours to do it justice.

It’s a similar story at Cork, where I did want to properly check out the chances of Blast of Koeman in the 3:05.
However, I have to draw the line somewhere - and it’s been drawn above him !

Instead, all of my efforts have gone into Cheltenham (as you would expect) - and a couple of the races at Punchestown.

Between them they’ve yielded tips in 3 of the races - plus hopefully a few interesting observations which some of you will be able to profit from.

Here are my thoughts on the day…

Cheltenham

1:15

On a busy day, it doesn’t make much sense to spend too long on a race like this…

There have been similar races on the first 2 days of the meeting: impossible looking, huge field, handicap hurdles.

On Friday and Saturday, they were for inexperienced horses (novices) - todays race is for inexperienced jockeys (conditionals).

My short list for the race, consists of Palmers Hill, Sliding Doors, The Dellercheckout and Solo Saxophone - but my confidence in the list is limited !
I would expect the race to be won by one of the less experienced runners - and for the betting to give a good steer.

However, that’s not always the case (as was demonstrated on Friday).

Whatever, it’s a race which is easily swerved from a betting - and tipping - perspective…

1:50

There may only be 5 runners, but this is a cracking novice chase.

Claimantakinforgan sets the standard, on the back of seasonal debut win in a novice chase at Uttoxeter.

However, on a line through the Chesterfield (who was runner up in that race) and Highway One O one, he has little in hand of Dynamite Dollar.

I doubt that collateral form will count for too much (this race will be about jumping - and improvement) but it’s interesting non-the–less…

The other 3 runners are all making their fencing debuts this afternoon - and all 3 are former winners of grade 1 novice hurdles races, who could turn out to be just as good over the bigger obstacles.

Defi du Seul took the 2017 Triumph hurdle in really impressive fashion; whilst Pingshou and Lalor won the grade 1 novice hurdle at the Aintree festival in 2017 & 2018, respectively. 

It’s anyones guess how the 3 of them will take to fences - and how fit they are…

My guess is that they will all jump fine - but I suspect that both Defi du Seul and Pingshou will need further than todays bare 2 miles.

The trip won’t be an issue for Lalor - but fitness might…

As a consequence I think Claimantakinforgan and Dynamite Dollar are the 2 to concentrate on (for today, anyway !).

I’d struggle to chose between them, however - and will be happy to just watch the race and learn from it…

2:25

Sceau Royal should win this - but at 5/4, he’s too short to consider supporting.

On the plus side, he’s the highest rated horse in the race - and he gets weight from a couple of his rivals.

He’s also only 6, so has plenty of scope for improvement.

However, he’s making his seasonal debut today - and whilst he has won fresh in the past, that always causes a doubt (particularly with a long season ahead).
I’m also not sure that Cheltenham is really his course - though the good ground will reduce the emphasis on stamina (which is the main issue, as he’s a quick horse).

He strikes me as potentially vulnerable - but I’m not sure he is facing a rival capable of taking advantage, even if he’s not spot on.

Brain Power is the obvious one - but it’s hard to support a horse who has failed to complete in 3 of his last 4 runs (and who clearly struggles with fences).

Whilst, the others shouldn’t really be good enough…

Le Prezien is a handicapper - and Sceau Royal will have to seriously under perform if Le Prezien is going to give him weight and a beating.

In fact, if I were to get involved with the race, I would be more inclined to side with Forest Bihan.

I think he has a similar chance to Le Prezien - but is more than 4 times the price (14/1 and 3/1).

The trouble again is, I know that he shouldn’t be good enough to win (and that makes him hard to tip).

If Sceau Royal seriously under performs - and Brain Powers jumping hasn’t improved - then Forest Bihan has a decent chance.

However, there is too much hope and guesswork involved, to make it a tip…

3:00

I’ve turned this race round a few times - and also changed my view on it more than once (always a risky thing to do !).

The trouble is, I’m sure that there are at least 3 horses who have been laid out specifically to win it - and its always dangerous to oppose such animals.

It looks to me as if Western Ryder, Nube Negra and Deyrann de Carjac have been specifically targeted at the contest.

Their handicap marks have been preserved (by not running them), so they can compete off what their trainers consider to be marks that they can win from.

It makes a lot of sense: this is a £100K race, and you don’t get many of those.
If you have a horse with the ability to win it, which you believe is well handicapped, then it would seem silly to ruin that mark by winning a £10K race somewhere. 

Obviously, it’s a slightly risky strategy, as plenty of things can go wrong in a race - but if they drop right, then you land the jackpot !

Anyway, I can see an argument for all 3 - but am prepared to oppose Western Ryder because I think he needs more of a stamina test than he will get this afternoon.
If the ground were softer - or the distance a bit further - he would be of interest.

But I suspect we will see him staying on up the hill, when things are all over.

The other 2 are a different matter…

Nube Negra was sent off favourite for the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival in March.

He ran a big race that day. Harry Skelton set him alight rounding the home turn and he went a couple of lengths up.

However, it looked as if he did a bit too much, too soon and he was reeled in approaching the last.

I suspect they learnt a bit about him that day - and he will be ridden with more restraint this afternoon.

He is also likely to be a bit stronger (he’s only 4) - and comes into the race on the back of a wind op.

The Skeltons have a really good record in the big 2 mile handicap hurdles at Cheltenham - and I’ve no doubt that Nube Negra will be primed to run for his life.

He has to be supported…

However, I fancy Deyrann de Carjac, even more !

The first thing about him, is that he’s a novice who has only run 4 times previously over hurdles.

I can’t recall Alan King ever running a horse with his profile, is a big handicap like this.

That makes him interesting - particularly as King won this race 12 months ago.

When you look at his form, he gets a whole lot more interesting…

In his bumper run at Chepstow least season, he finished third to Kateson and Classic Ben, beaten 3 lengths.

The winner subsequently finished second in the bumper at he Aintree Grand National meeting: Whilst the runner up is now rated 132 over hurdles.

In his next run, he was third behind Kalashnikov - he is now rated 152 over hurdles.

Maybe most relevant of all, is his debut run this season, when he finished runner up to Pym at Chepstow.

He was giving the winner 6lb - and was beaten just 2 lengths.

The suggestion is that he is the slightly better horse - yet Pym is rated 138, whilst Deyrann de Carjac gets into today race off a mark of 128.

He has bundles of scope for improvement - and I’ll be amazed if he’s not rated at least a stone higher by the end of the season.
Alan King must know that he will never have such a good chance to win a big handicap with him - which is why he is running in the race.

There is a chance that his inexperience could catch him out in such a big field - but if it doesn’t I think he’ll win.
Outside of these 3, there are also 2 eye catchers running in the race, in the shape of Vado Forte and Midnight Shadow.

I think the ground will be too quick for the former - but conditions should be fine for Midnight Shadow and he did run very well on his comeback outing at Wetherby.

He’s not got a stone in hand of his mark - but we know he can handle the hulry-burly of a big field.

The tricky part was deciding how best to stake everything.

Deyrann de Carjac is my strongest fancy in the race – but he is clearly a win only bet.

As a consequence, the best path seemed to be to have him as the main bet in the race - with Nube Negra and Midnight Shadow as savers.

Hopefully one of them will come home in front !

3:30 

I think it is worth taking a chance on Elixir de Nutz in this.

I suspect he is a very talented animal - who seems to be gradually getting things together…

He was trained by Philip Hobbs last season - and showed distinct promise on his 2 runs for the stable - but was also very head strong.

He moved in to the care of Colin Tizzard over the summer and made his debut for him, in a decent maiden hurdle at the October meeting.

He was still keen in his race, that day - but to nowhere near the same extent as he’d been in his races last season.

As a consequence, he ran a much better - and having led all the way to the last, was only headed up the final hill.

With that run under his belt - and the freshness out of him - I think we will get to see what he can really do, this afternoon.

In fairness, whilst he only faces 4 rivals, all 4 of them have the potential to be very good.

Seddon heads the market on the back of an impressive victory on his hurdling debut at Stratford.

He could be anything - but he still has lots to prove and it’s hard to justify a price of even money about him.

Itchy Feet has also looked good in winning his 2 hurdle races.

However he gets lumbered with a 5lb penalty for his most recent victory - and that’s not going to help his cause.

Colonel Custard won his only hurdle race, at Newton Abbot: whilst Two for Gold makes his hurdling debut this afternoon.

Neither can be dismissed - but their chances don’t seem as good as that of the other 3…

Obviously in a race like this, plenty of guesswork is required.

However, I think I’ve seen enough with Elix de Nutz, to believe that he has the talent to win a race of this nature - and I can understand why the betting has under-estimated him.

In the circumstances, I think he is worth a bet.

4:00

The meeting closely with what looks like a very strong bumper - but I haven’t got much idea what will win it…

McFabulous looked very good when winning at Chepstow and - particularly with his connections - I’m not surprised he’s been installed a short priced favourite.

Unwin VC was never going to be favourite based on his connections - but I was massively impressed by the way he won his 2 bumpers last season.

Having been well backed on his debut, he looked unsteerable in the early part of the race.

Rarely can a horse have performed as he did for the first few furlongs - and then won.
That suggested he had a lot of talent - which was confirmed when he followed up in a better bumper on his second start.

Again he was very keen early - but again, it didn’t stop him from winning…

In truth, such wayward tendencies will stop him from reaching the highest level - but if those issues can be ironed out, I suspect he can go a long way…

He’s not a horse I could tip - both because of his traits and because of the opposition.
However, I’ve had a small bet on him at 16/1 and I wouldn’t discourage others from doing similar…

Punchestown

12:35

This is a nice little race - and I’m quite keen on the chances of The Holy One…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut in a decent maiden hurdle at Down Royal, at the start of this month.

He moved up on the outside approaching the second last, and looked sure to be involved in the finish - however he couldn’t go on from that point.

I suspect he needed the outing and I would expect him to strip much fitter today.

Based on his form of last season, then I think he is a potentially well handicapped horse.

His third placed effort in a particularly strong novice hurdle at the Punchestown festival, reads very well.

He finished 3 lengths in front of Deal Destruval that day - and that one had previously run second in the Coral hurdle at Leopardstown (where he finished in front of Makitorix).

Certainly there looks to be a lot of scope in The Holy Ones initial handicap mark of 123…

The main concern with the race, is whether there is an even better handicapped one lurking somewhere !

Favourite, Hearts are Trumps, is a possible - though he has already run in 5 handicaps, so has shown a fair chunk of his hand.
That said, he is an improver - and the improvement may not have stopped yet…

Eoline Jolie is the most unexposed runner in the race - but as a Willie Mullins inmate, you would expect her to be strong in the market if she was considered well handicapped.

Like an Open Book is the other one to be particular wary of - as she had no chance against handicap blot, Wonder Laish, on her most recent outing.
That said, she hadn’t looked particularly well handicapped before that - and something had to finish second to him.

2:15

The defection of Supasundea has taken away some of the interest from this race…

It has been billed as a match between Faugheen and Samcro - but I could certainly have made a case for a peak form Supasundea…

Anyway, such is life - it now is effectively a match between Faugheen and Samcro !

As for which one will win - then I’m firmly in the Samcro camp.

Yes, he was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Down Royal, but I think Jack Kennedy made the mistake of riding him just to beat Sharjah - and Bedrock caught him unawares.

You can argue that he should have responded better when Bedrock challenged - but it was his first race of the season and I doubt Kennedy would have been prepared to be overly hard on him…

I think the relevance of the race is limited - and based on far more relevant races that he won last year, I believe that Samcro is an exceptional talent.

Of course, Faugheen has also been an exceptional talent - but he will soon be 11 and has suffered a number of injuries.

At his peak, he would probably be the superior of Samcro (accepting Samcro could still improve) - but he’s no longer at his peak.

I think that will be particularly true today - and in the circumstances will be very surprised if he does win.

In truth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Sharjah or Wicklow Brave emerge as Samcros main dangers - but neither of them should be able to beat him.

Hopefully Davy will have a nice easy ride - and we’ll see confirmation that NH racing does indeed have it’s next superstar…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 3:00 Deyrann de Carjac 1pt win 10/1

Chel 3:00 Nubre Negra 0.5pt win 8/1

Chel 3:00 Midnight Shadow 0.5pt win 12/1

Chel 3:30 Elixir de Nuite 1pt win 11/2

Punc 12:35 The Holy One 1pt win 11/2

*Mentions

Chel 1:15 Palmers Hill (S )

Chel 1:50 Dynamite Dollar (O )

Chel 2:25 Sceau Royal (P )

Chel 4:00 Unwin VC (S )

*The letter following the Mention, is the reason why it wasn’t a tip: Price; Opposition, Conditions; Speculative