Daily write-up - Nov 17th

Day 2 of the Cheltenham November meeting - and it makes a pleasant change not to be worrying about the weather - and consequently the state of the ground…

Conditions looked perfect yesterday - and with no overnight rain, I would expect them to be the same this afternoon…

In addition to Cheltenham, there are also NH meetings at Uttoxeter, Wetherby and Punchestown.

There are some quite interesting looking races at both English courses - but no ‘Big’ ones.

And whilst Punchestown does host a graded event - it’s a novice chase and I don’t have a strong view on it.

As a result my focus is once again completely on Cheltenham…

In terms of the field sizes, then they are more in line with what you would expect - and there are 4 big field, competitive handicaps.

I’ve managed to find a tip in 3 of them - and, as you would expect, have views on all of the other races on the card…

Cheltenham

12:40

Apples Shakira won this race 12 moths ago (and subsequently gave us a lot of fun, in the ante-post market for the Triumph hurdle) - and Nicky Henderson unleashes a similar sort in todays race, in the shape of Never Adapt.

She too is a French import, who won her only race in her homeland - and could literally be anything.
The bookmakers have taken no chances in installing her an odds on favourite - but they are guessing as much as we are…

She actually faces at least 3 rivals who have already shown a fair level of form, in the shape of Montestrel, Cracker Factory and Quel Destin.

She will need to be fairly useful, if she is going to beat all 3.

Of the trio, I like Montestrel best.

He was relatively unfancied, when he beat Quel Destin at Chepstow - and may be able to confirm that form on 4lb worse terms.

That said, if I were to get involved with the race, I might be more inclined to take a tiny speculative punt on Katpoli.

He won on his UK debut at Huntingdon, despite some shocking jumping.

If his jumping is as bad today, then he won't be winning - however, you have to think that Dr Newland will have subjected him to some intensive schooling, since then.

If that’s had the desired effect, then he could easily improve out of all recognition.

All this said, it’s probably a race I will just watch…

1:15

I’ll probably just watch this race as well - despite being very impressed by The Worlds End, when he made his chasing debut at Chepstow last month.

He barely put a foot wrong that day - and if he’s as good this afternoon, I don’t think he will be beaten.
He does have to carry a 5lb penalty for that win - but even with that, he is comfortably the best in the field, based on official ratings over hurdles.

Figuring out what will follow him home, isn’t quite as easy…

With the exception of Brynmawr, the other 4 runners look quite closely matched.

Theatre Territory is by far the most experienced - and has some strong handicap form.
She also receives the 7lb sex allowance from all of her rivals.

That may enable her to come out best of the rest - though it will be a little surprising if she proves a match for The Worlds End.
As he has no chance of official ratings, I do wonder why Colin Tizzard is running Brynmawr in this…

The horse is rated at least a stone inferior to all of his rivals - and I’m sure there are plenty of other races Tizzard could have run him in.
As a consequence, I think he is one who is worth monitoring in the betting - if money does come, he might warrant a very small play…

1:50

The first of the big field handicaps - and I don’t think the field looks overly strong…

Of course, if top weight Coneygree, were to bounce back to the form which saw him take the 2015 Gold Cup, then he would win this doing hand springs - however, that is a little unlikely…

SInglefarmpayment is favourite for the race - but there has to be some doubt about him staying the 3m3f trip.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him come there swinging - but him battling his way up the hill, is a different matter.

The issue with second favourite, Calett Mad, is likely to be the ground - he would prefer it softer….

Instead, I’d rather take a chance on Looking Well, at a much bigger price.

I took a chance on him in February, when he contested the Edinburgh National - and approaching the final fence, he looked for all the world as if he was going to repay my faith.

However, he then inexplicably jinked and decanted his jockey !

He’s only run twice since then: when pulled up in the Scottish National - and when a staying on third, over an inadequate trip at Perth in June…

Rather than being an issue however, I view his subsequent 6 month absence as a positive, as he’s a horse who always run his best races when fresh.

The ground shouldn’t be a problem - and he will relish todays trip.

He’s running from a mark 3lb higher than in the Edinburgh National - but if he had won that race (and he should have done !), his rating would be a fair bit higher still…

There are plenty of others in the race who can be given a chance: last years first and second, Perfect Candidate and Vicente, chief amongst them.

However, Looking Well has as good a chance as most - and is attractively priced as well !

2:25

There are 3 eye catchers running in this race, in the shape of Benatar, Baron Alco and West Approach - and I think that all 3 have a chance.

Of the 3, I favour the claims of Benatar and I probably missed a trick not tipping him when the overnight declarations were released on Thursday.

He was 14/1 at that point - but I’m conscious that some of you struggle to get on, so decided to wait until this morning to issue.

Now he’s a best price of 8/1 - so we all have to take that, whereas at least some could have got better…

Maybe some of you did.

I suggested this race as a suitable target for him when I made him an eye catcher in the forum.

As regular readers will know, he’s a horse who I’ve always been massively keen on - ever since I watched him make his debut in a bumper at Fontwell !

I tipped him twice that season (at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals !) - and again when he won on his seasonal debut at Ascot, 12 months ago.

Simply, I think he’s a massively talented horse - and it’s just a question of waiting for things to drop.

He’s still very immature and tends to be much too keen in his races.
Despite this, he’s already shown high class form - with his third in last seasons JLT, right up there with the best novice chase form of the season.

He’s currently rated 149 - but I honestly think he’s potentially a 160+ horse…

The key will be for Jamie Moore to get him settled and into a rhythm.

If he does - and provided he gets a bit of luck in running - then I’ve no doubt that he has the class to win this race comfortably…
Of the others, then I can see Baron Alco giving it a real good go from the front - and if his price was a bit bigger, I would have been sorely tempted to put him up EW.

He doesn’t have the class of Benatar, but he’s an admirable type.
West Approach isn’t quite as gutsy as Baron Alco - but he could be well handicapped and would take some reeling in, if he got loose on the lead.

Unfortunately for him, the presence of Baron Alco - and one or two others - make that an unlikely scenario.

Away from the eye catchers, then of the market leaders, I would prefer the chance of Rather Be and Kalondra to that of Mister Whittaker.

At the prices, however, I would be prepared to take on both.

Movewiththetimes is potentially very interesting - if his jumping holds up in the big field: Whilst Happy Diva is another of some interest - though she may find the ground a bit too quick.

The final one worthy of a mention, is Willie Boy.

He’s a massive price (40/1) but I could see him significantly out running those odds.
Whether he is good enough to win, is a different matter - but he’s certainly one to consider for a pre-race back and lay in running (as he races prominently - and is likely to travel well).

3:00

This doesn’t strike me as the most competitive of races - and therefore, I’m quite keen on the chances of Sweet Home Chicago…

First of all, it strikes me as significant, that Colin Bowe has sent the horse over from Ireland.

He’s a trainer I like, in his native Ireland - but he’s not generally prone to sending his horses to the UK…

Sweet Home Chicago has been in tremendous form lately - winning his 2 most recent races at Clonmel and Galway.

Todays race will be a step up in class for him, but he’s clearly in rude health - and has snuck into the handicap off a feather weight.

Although he’s already 9, he’s very lightly raced for his age - having run under rules on just 10 occasions.

As a consequence, there is a chance that he could still be open to improvement.

Todays conditions look perfect for him - and I’ll be very surprised (and disappointed !) if he doesn’t run a big race….

Whether he’ll be good enough to win, remains to be seen - but the opposition doesn’t look overly strong.

First Assignment is favourite on the back of a hard fought win a the October meeting - but he can be opposed, at the odds.

His is followed in the market by Boyhood and Weebill, but they too both look beatable…

Non of the outsiders grab me massively - so, in short, this looks a winnable race…

Let’s just hope that Sweet Home Chicago performs to the level that I believe him capable - because if he does, then I’m quite hopeful about the outcome..!

3:30

In contrast to some of the early races, this one looks highly competitive !

That said, there is a chance that race favourite, Speedo Boy, will prove to be just too well handicapped for his rivals.

That’s a bold statement based on his hurdles form to date - though in fairness, he has only run 3 times over obstacles, so has plenty of scope for improvement.

However, it’s his flat form that suggests he could be a handicap blot…

Speedo Boy is rated 98 on the flat and is competitive off that mark.

It is generally considered that you can add 45 to a flat rating to get a comparable NH rating.

As a consequence, if he performed to the same level over hurdles, Speedo Boy would have a rating of around 140.
Instead, he gets in to todays race off a mark of 118.

The suggestion being that he could have 20lb in hand…

Ofcourse it is rarely that simple - but it at least explains why he is such a short priced favourite !

In truth, I wouldn’t want to oppose him - but equally, I couldn’t back him at that price in such a competitive contest.

If he doesn’t deliver, then there are quite a few who could be fancied to take advantage.

Top weight, Westend Story, is a horse of significant potential and it would be no surprised to see him step up on his form of last season, with the stable of Philip Hobbs going so well.

Christmas is April ran really well on his debut for Colin Tizzard, at the October meeting - and is probably the most solid option in the race.

That said, Point of Principle posted a rock solid effort when coming second in the Tote Silver trophy and is arguably a bit of value at 10/1 (if you ignore Tim Vaughans Cheltenham record !).

Half cases can even be made for most of the outsiders, so it really is a race best just watched with an eye to the future…

4:00

This is not a race where you can have a strong opinion, though it does look significant that Willie Mullins has sent over Royal Illusion to contest it.

She’s unbeaten in 2 races in Ireland - and presumably is looking to gain some black type by taking this listed event.

She could easily be good enough to win - but at 2/1 (the same price as Josies Orders !), I won’t be paying to find out…

Danse Idol looks the most obvious alternative.

She is now trained by Paul Nicholls but was with John O Callaghan when she finished second to subsequent Champion bumper winner Relegate, at Punchestown in January.

That now looks like very good form.
At a bigger price, I am drawn to Legends Gold.
She ran well when second at Aintree recently. If she can build on that, she could make the frame.

That said, there is too much guesswork for a proper bet in the race…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:50 Looking Well 0.75pt win 16/1

Chel 2:25 Benatar 1pt win 8/1

Chel 3:00 Sweet Home Chicago 1.5pt win 12/1

Mentions

Chel 12:40 Katpoli (S )

Chel 1:15 The Worlds End (P )

Chel 3:30 Speedo Boy (O )

Chel 4:00 Legends Gold (S )

*The letter following the Mention, is the reason why it wasn’t a tip: Price; Opposition, Conditions; Speculative