Daily write-up - Nov 10th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Wincanton, Aintree and Kelso in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland.

It was nice to see the fields standing up a bit better this week - particularly at Wincanton and Aintree.

However, the cards aren’t quite as good as they should have been last week - so finding tips has again been tricky…

And that was before the overnight rain arrived.

The one thing I really dread, is rain forecast for a Friday evening !

You never know how much is going to materialise - and what impact it will have on the ground.

I realise it is badly needed - I just wish it could have found some other day, on which to fall !

There has been plenty of the wet stuff over night at Wincanton - and more is expected during the day.

It really is anyones guess as to how the ground will be riding, come race time - so caution has to be exercised.

There’s not been as much rain at Aintree - but again, we won’t really know what conditions are like, until it is too late.

As a consequence, I’m again light on tips - though in truth, even without the uncertainty over the ground, I wouldn’t be going mad (I haven’t spotted many opportunities).

I’m sure things will move up a notch next weekend, at Cheltenham - but that’s in the future.

As for today: then here is the rationale for the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races…

Wincanton

1:50

If you Say Run looks the one to beat in this, for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden.

She was a progressive novice last season, with her only disappointing run coming on her final outing, at Newbury.

I’m sure she will be cherry ripe for this: she has an excellent record fresh - and should be able to handle the ground (however it may ride !).

In short, she ticks lots of boxes…

The issue is a price of just 5/2 - particularly when she faces a number of rivals who are difficult to quantify.

Little Miss Poet looks harshly treated, 11lb higher than when winning at Wincanton in May.
However, she is very strong in the market - and it could well be significant that Dickie rides her (as he doesn’t appear to have a great book of rides - relatively speaking)

I couldn’t back her - but I would also struggle to oppose her…

Grageelah Girl is another very interesting one - for Fergal O’Brien and Conor Brace.

She bled last time, and that would make her hard to support today - but she has bumper form which suggests she could be quite well handicapped.

Most of the others are also of some interest - to a greater or lesser extent - so it really can only be a race to watch…

2:25

The betting suggests this is between Bags Groove and Secret Investor - and it’s probably right.

The former won a strong novice chase at Ffos Las on his seasonal debut - jumping well throughout - and sets a decent standard.

Secret Investor makes his chasing debut in this race - which almost certainly says something about the regard in which Paul Nicholls holds him.

He won the Persian War hurdle at Chepstow, on his seasonal debut - and that form suggests there is little between him and Bags Groove, in terms of absolute ability.

Secret Investor has the greater scope for improvement - but Bags Groove has already shown he can proficiently jump a fence.

To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice…

If the ground was riding quick, then Majestic Moll would be of interest - but she does require a decent surface: whilst Theligny shouldn’t really be good enough - and will be of more interest, with todays run under his belt.

3:00

This should be a really strong renewal of this race - but ground conditions are likely to prove crucial…

Verdana Blue wants in riding like a road - so she’s not going to be happy about the recent rain.

We have a Dream, on the other hand, has won on Chepstow heavy - so he will have no issue, regardless of how wet it gets !

I’ll actually be a little surprised if both horses end up running in the race (they are both trained by Nicky Henderson) - in which case, there will be a significant rule 4…

Harry Fry is another trainer with 2 in the race: If the Cap Fits and Air Horse One.

If the Cap Fits is clearly his number 1 candidate though - and looks to have a decent chance.

I also think that Redicean has a decent chance - and I did consider tipping him.

However, all the uncertainty puts me off - coupled with the fact that he’s a penalised 4 year old.

At 8/1, he does look the value in the race - at this point in time, anyway !

3:35

The majority of the field for this race, want quick ground…

Therefore, the recent rain, could be an issue for many (assuming it has the impact I expect).

2 who want/need the ground to be on the soft side, are Ramses de Teillee and El Bandito - and I think it is worth splitting stakes on them.

The former made giant strides as a novice, last season: winning on his seasonal debut at Chepstow - and at the same venue, in January.

Both of those wins were on heavy ground - as was his second to Elegant Escape at Exeter, in February.

He clearly performs very well in the mud - though whether he needs it, remains to be seen.

David Pipe seems pretty confident that he at least needs cut, however - as he took him out of his intended seasonal debut, at Ascot last weekend, on account of quick ground.

Presumably he will do the same today, if he considers the ground unsuitable - and I will have no issue if that’s the case.

Assuming he is allowed to compete, then I think he has a very good chance, in what looks a relatively weak contest (for the grade).

El Bandito is even less exposed than Ramses.

He has only run once over fences previously - in a 3 horse race, 18 months ago !

In the circumstances, it could be considered surprising that Paul Nicholls is running him in this race - but I suspect he feels he is a well handicapped horse - and the £60K pot is just too tempting…

It’s impossible to make a case for him based on form (though his defeat of Coo Star Sivola in the 2106 Persian War hurdle, does look good !) - it’s all about potential and improvement.

He’s not one that I could have chased down to a silly price - but at 6/1, with conditions coming in his favour, I think he is also worthy of support.

Aintree

1:35

The defection of Hear no Evil appears to have left this race at the mercy of Abolitionist…

He’s a thoroughly exposed 10 year old chaser - but he’s having his first run for Dr Newland - and is racing off a mark nearly 2 stone lower than the one he ran from when finishing third in the 2017 Irish National.

He could be thrown in - and that’s ignoring the improvement that Dr Newland normally manages to elicit from horses transferring into his care.

Unsurprisingly, he’s been well found in the betting and 7/4 is plenty short enough.

That said, I wouldn’t really want to oppose him…

Even if I did, it would be hard to know what with.

JP McManus owns 4 of the other 7 runners, and choosing between them would be tricky; whilst it’s not easy to make a strong case for any of the other 3.

All in all, this has to be a watching race…

2:10

There may only be 5 runners in this - but it’s a cracking little contest.

It’s actually possible to make a case for all 5 runners - depending on the state of the ground.

That said , Agrapart has a marked preference for very soft - and he’s unlikely to get that…

Despite its apparent openness, I’m quite keen on Unowhatimeanharry - and at 3/1, I would probably have tipped him.

He’s the highest rated horse in the race - and tends to run well fresh.

The issue with him is that he’ll be 11 in a couple of months time - so could be vulnerable to younger legs.

They’ll have to be pretty quick legs though, if they are going to get the better of him !

Ultimately, it comes down to price - and there is little margin for error at the top end of the market.

I think 5/2 is a perfectly fair price - but there isn’t a lot in it.

If he does drift to 3/1, I’ll be getting involved…

2:40

This is probably the betting race of the day and I’m quite keen on War Sound - in fact, if Dickie was riding, I would be very keen !

I’ve got no issue with Tom O’Brien as a jockey - it’s just that Dickies thirst for winners, tends to take him to where he believes the best opportunities lie.

So the fact he’s not on War Sound, seems to be a negative…

That aside, I think the horse has a really good chance.

He ran numerous good races as a novice, last season - and that was when the stable of Philip Hobbs wasn’t really firing.

It’s in much better form now - so I would be hopeful that War Sound will show improvement.

Certainly from a pure handicapping perspective, he has scope.

He won the 2015 Swinton hurdle at Haydock, off a mark of 140 - so running from a mark of 136 today, there is no doubt he is potentially well handicapped.

My biggest concern with him is that he’s quite an exuberant horse - so there is a danger he could do too much, too soon.

The big field should help in that regard, and hopefully Tom O’Brien will be able to bury him in amongst his rivals.
If he does settle, then I think he will take a lot of beating…

The case for Kauto Rico isn’t as compelling - but I think he offers some value.

He was a big improver last season - and has a very good record fresh.

He will have no issue if the rain has got into the ground - and simply, was worth a speculative play, at around 20/1.

Of the others, then Romain de Senam is probably the right favourite - assuming the ground isn’t too soft.

That said, a price of 3/1 looks a bit too short in such a strong field.

Some Invitation is the other one of moderate interest - though you do need to be prepared to forgive a very poor run, last time.

Naas

12:30

There are some very good horses running at Naas this afternoon - but I suspect, non better than Footpad.

He was a revelation as a novice chaser last season: barely touching a twig, as he notched up 5 facile wins - including in the Arkle chase at the Cheltenham festival.

He really could be anything and it will be fascinating to see which direction Willie Mullins points him in, this season.

The Champion chase is the obvious long term target (and a showdown with Altior !) - but the Ryanair chase - or even the Gold Cup, are also possibilities…

Unsurprisingly he starts the season running over the bare 2 miles and he should win.

That said, he is facing a particularly strong rival in the shape of Saint Calvados.

He too was massively impressive as a novice last season - and probably didn’t run his race, when well beaten by Footpad in the Arkle.

It’s very interesting that Harry Whittington has decide to let Saint Calvados take on Footpad, on his seasonal debut - and we could certainly learn something from the race.

I suspect he’ll come up short, because Footpad is an exceptional talent.
However, if Footpad isn’t spot on for his seasonal debut - or if Ruby mis-judges the race, then Saint Calvados has sufficient ability to take advantage.

It’s not a betting race - but it should be a fascinating watch. 

1:05

There may only be 6 runners in this - and probably only 3 with a chance - but it still looks an absorbing contest…

The 3 to focus on appear to be Saldier, Mr Adjudicator and Espoir Dallen - and it’s not easy to split them, based on their runs from last season.

Depending on which line of form you want to take, a case can be made for all 3.

In a way, that’s not too surprising, as they are still young horses, so their form hasn’t settled down.

Espoir Dallen looked a serious animal in the early part of the season: but hasn't been seen since disappointing behind Mr Adjudicator at Leopardstown in February.

Me Adjudicator himself, was well beaten by Saldier at Punchestown in April - so it’s not too surprising to see that one installed as favourite (particularly with Ruby riding).

I’m not sure it’s that simple, however…

Sadier was well behind Mr Adjudicator in the Triumph hurdle: and Espoir Dallen beat the Triumph hurdle winner, Farclas, when the 2 clashed at Christmas.

To an extent, I think it’s a case of paying your money and making your choice - and at 5/1, that makes Espoir Dallen interesting…

I would have him nearer the 3/1 mark - so there has to be value in the current price.

As a consequence, I think he is worth getting on side.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Naas 1:05 Espoir Dallen 1pt win 5/1

Aint 2:40 War Sound 1pt win 7/1

Aint 2:40 Kauto Rico 0.5pt win 20/1

Winc 3:35 Ramses de Teillee 1pt win 10/1

Winc 3:35 El Bandito 1pt win 6/1

*Mentions

Aint 1:35 Abolitionist (P)

Aint 2:10 Unowhatimeanharry (P)

Winc 1:50 If you Say (P)

Winc 2:25 Secret Investor (P)

Winc 3:00 Redicean (C)

*The letter following the Mention, is the reason why it wasn’t a tip: Price; Opposition, Conditions; Speculative