As we are all painfully aware, there is just the 1 NH meeting
today: at Naas in Ireland.
The outbreak of equine flu, means that there
will be no racing in the UK, until Wednesday - at the earliest - and 3 more
confirmed cases yesterday, suggest that the target return date, may prove
optimistic…
We will only begin to get a better idea of the scale of
things, on Monday, when the results of swab samples, start coming back from the
labs.
Hopefully, they will show that the issue is contained to a few isolated
pockets (ideally, just Donald McCains yard !) - but for now all eventualities
are possible…
There is a voice of opinion that says stopping racing -
certainly for a prolonged period - is an over-reaction.
In terms of the
impact of the disease, then I suspect this is true - however, it is also
irrelevant.
The BHA have protocols to deal with such situations - and
they aren’t going to deviate from them.
As a consequence, we need to hope
that the disease is not widespread - because if it is, we could be in for a long
wait before racing returns…
All this means that we are relying on
Ireland, for our entertainment - and specifically today, on Naas…
They
put on a relatively low key card - made up mainly, of novice events, plus a
couple of relatively low grade handicaps.
It’s really not a card that we
should be getting heavily involved with - so whilst I have offered views on the
3 main races, if you do back anything, I would suggest keeping stakes to a
minimum.
Naas
2:10
Funnily
enough, I expected to be getting involved with Baie des Iles this weekend - but
not in this race !
She was also amongst the 5 day declarations for the Grand
National trial at Punchestown tomorrow - and she featured high on my short list
for that race (along with another horse, whose not subsequently been declared to
run !).
She's a previous winner of the Grand National trial (when I tipped
her) - and also ran third in the corresponding race last year (when rated 3lb
higher).
I reckon she would have had a very good chance tomorrow - which is
why I’m a little baffled to see her running in this…
The main issue is that
this is a 2 mile race - and she’s not a 2 miler !
Most of her recent runs
have been over extreme distances (the Grand National trial is over 3m4f) - so
it’s difficult to figure out what is going on today…
Her trainer says he
hopes she will be sharpened up by the run - and the application of first time
blinkers, are likely to make her run more freely.
However, in all
probability, she won’t have the pace, so fend off horses who are much better
suited to todays trip…
Actually, it’s probably fairer to day that she won’t
have the pace to fend off Pravalaguna.
She should be perfectly at home over
todays trip - and whilst she has very limited experience over fences, if she
does jump round cleanly, she’s likely to be too quick for all of her
rivals.
Synopsis may be the one to follow her home - though I wouldn’t be
overly surprised if Baie des Iles did plug on for second place…
2:40
Joseph O’Briens has an exceptionally strong crop of juveniles this
season, so it’s not too surprising that his Konitho and Band of Outlaws,
dominate the market for this.
Both were impressive winners, last time - with
the former coming home by 5 lengths on his Irish debut.
My appetite to oppose
them is limited - though I do suspect they may have been put in a bit too short
(because of the exploits of their stable companions).
If I were to play in
the race, it would more likely be on the Gordon Elliott trained Coko
Beach.
He made his debut for Elliott in a grade 2 event at the Leopardstown
festival over Christmas.
He ran disappointingly that day - but was sent off
at just 6/1, which suggests much better was expected…
He can be backed at 6/1
again today - and this is a far weaker event.
It’s also interesting that Jack
Kennedy has remained loyal to him, despite Elliott having a second runner in the
race, in the shape of Elysian Plains.
3:10
I spent a bit
of time on this race, as I figured it the most likely one to yield a
tip.
However, I could only manage to narrow it down to 2 - and both are close
to the head of the market.
In fact, Scoir Mear is the market leader - and
unfortunately, I think he’s the most likely winner !
His most recent outing
was in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown over Christmas - and he finished a
creditable tenth, in that top class event.
Todays race is a significant drop
in class - and he also drops half a mile in trip - which I think will suit
him.
The biggest issue, is a price of 4/1 - though in truth, I’m not sure I’d
be prepared to offer any bigger, against generally limited opposition…
The
other one I could be interested in, is Velocity Boy.
He’s a horse I’ve
followed for quite a while - and I could see him running well today.
I’m
certainly pleased that connections are reverting him to 2m4f, having tried to
get him to stay an extra mile, on his 2 most recent runs.
I’m far from
convinced that he stays any further than 3 miles - so todays trip should prove
much more suitable.
Unfortunately, todays ground could be an issue for him,
as he would prefer it a fair but softer…
In the circumstances, I therefore
feel Scoir Mear is the one to be with.
However, the nature of the race means
I feel there is an element of guesswork - and I don’t like guessing at a price
of 4/1 !
Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this
afternoon.
TVB.
Mentions
Naas
2:10 Baie des Iles (without the fav)
Naas 2:40 Coko Beak (O )
Naas 3:10
Scoir Mear (P )
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