Daily write-up - Feb 10th

As with yesterday, there is just the one NH meeting today: at Punchestown in Ireland…

Thankfully, there has been some positive news on the equine flu front - with the first 1500 samples, having tested negative for the disease.
Hopefully that trend will continue…

As for today: then the meeting at Punchestown is similar to yesterdays meeting at Naas - but with a little more quality…

The feature race is 100K Grand National trial - a race which I’ve tipped the winner of, for the past couple of seasons.
In the circumstances, it would have been a bit rude, to not at least try for the hattrick !

Aside from that however, there isn’t really anything which I felt either particularly strongly about - or had the confidence that the market would be able to cope with me tipping in !

As a consequence, there is just the one tip on the day - plus some thoughts on a couple of the other races…


Punchestown

2:20

I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping La Sorelita in this…
The main attraction with her, is the fact that she receives a huge amount of weight from the 2 market leaders: Chosen Mate and Prince D’Aubrelle.
The pair of them have to concede her a massive 21lb - made up of a weight for age allowance; a sex allowance and a winners penalty.
Instinctively, I feel that is too much - though I am guessing…
It’s not easy to get a handle on La Sorelitas form.
She’s only run twice in Ireland - and whilst she hasn’t performed too badly on either occasion, she has run a bit below expectations…
On both runs, she was left behind when the pace quickened - and then stayed on late.
My feeling is that she may need a step up in trip, to be seen her at her best.
In truth, it’s not too easy to get a handle on the form of the market leaders, either.
Chosen Mate was an impressive winner of his sole run under rules; whilst Prince D’Aubrelle won last time (after a huge absence) - but hasn’t been seen May.
The trouble is, they represent Elliott and Mullins - so their stables will have a good handle on their ability and readiness.
Certainly, it would be hard to take them on, with much confidence…
Top Moon is the final one of interest in the race - but he is making his hurdling debut (having run very well on his sole bumper start).
The bottom line is that there is just too much guesswork required to warrant getting seriously involved with the race.

3:50

I feel that this race is a little more open than the betting suggests…
Impact Factor has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst I can understand him heading the market, his price of 5/4 seems too short.
The form of his recent second to Cilaos Emery is strong, in the context of this race - but it doesn’t put him miles ahead of his rivals.
Riders onthe Storm is the obvious one to take him on with; but if I were to get involved with the race, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on Dr Mikey.
He was a decent hurdler, but looked as if he had improved for fences, when making all on his chasing debut at Gowran back in November.
He disappointed on his only subsequent start, at Navan in December - but that was in a Grade 3 contest - and he wasn’t able to dominate.
Back down in grade - and having been given a couple of months to freshen up - he could be hard to peg back, if he gets into a rhythm at the head of affairs.
Celtic Rising is the other one worthy of a mention.
He fell on his chasing debut (which is most unusual for a Henry de Bromhead trained horse) - but hopefully that won’t have left a mark.
He’s the least exposed runner in the field - but did win a PTP before he started racing under rules.
He showed fair hurdles form last season - and whilst he would need to step up on that to figure here, it’s quite possible that he will do just that.
At 18/1 he could be worth a small speculative play…

4:20

I was a bit disappointed to see, that the 3 horses who I was initially interested in for this race (Baie des Ilses was one of them), weren’t declared at the overnight stage.
In their absence, the race looks very open - and it’s little surprise to see the market headed by the apparent first strings from the Mullins and Elliott camps (Some Neck and General Principal) - along with a couple of horses with interesting jockey bookings (Solumn Grundy and Kilkishen).
The other one at the head of the market, is Fitzhenry - who is the form choice, based on his third pace in the Thystes chase…
All 5 clearly have a chance - but equally, they’ve not been missed by the market…
Agent Boru had been missed by the market (at least when I first spotted him !) - and whilst he has lots to prove, he also has a profile which suggests he could be very interesting…
Todays race will be only his fifth over fences - and his first over a trip in excess of 2m5f.
That second point is of particular interest, as it was when presented with a distance of ground over hurdles last season, that his form improved.
Most notably, when winning a decent novice handicap at the Fairyhouse Easter festival.
He returned over fences at Naas in November, and ran really well to finish fourth in a very hot beginners chase.
The form of that race suggests that he is well treated today, off a mark of 129 (even though he is 4lb out of the handicap).
Clearly he is a risky one - but he does have far more scope for improvement than most of his rivals - and there are good reasons for thinking that he could show improved form today.
In the circumstances, I think he is worth a small play at a decent price.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Punch 4:20 Agent Boru 0.5pt win 16/1

Mentions

Punch 2:20 La Sorelita (S )
Punch 3:50 Dr Mikey (O )