Daily write-up - Feb 23rd

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Newcastle and Chepstow in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

With the start of the Cheltenham festival now just over 2 week away, things are starting to change a little…
Most of the horses that will run at Cheltenham, should have had their final prep runs by now - though the quick ground and Equine flu, have caused some issues…

Certainly, I’m sure that a few of the star names out today, would not be running in an ideal world (Angels Breath being the most obvious one).

That creates another level of confusion, as I can’t believe those horses will be given an unduly hard race, so close to the festival.
If they win, they will need to win easily…

The lack of rain continues to be an issue - and again, I suspect some trainers will be running their horses today, despite the conditions - just to put an edge on them.

Needless to say, all the second guessing doesn't help with trying to solve the puzzles !

Despite that, I’ve managed to find 5 tips on the day, across 4 races - plus I’ve got an opinion on a few more !

Here is the rationale for the tips, along with my views on the days other main races…


Kempton

1:15

I think it is worth siding with Rhythm is a Dancer in this…
He won a novice hurdle at Wincanton in November - and followed up in a novice handicap at the same track, the following month.
On the back of those 2 victories, he ran in a class 2 open handicap, again at Wincanton, on Boxing day.
He ran a slightly strange race that day, one minute appearing to be travelling strongly and the next, under pressure.
Ultimately, he finished a well beaten fifth - but as he was running from out of the handicap, he is effectively 3lb better of today.
More importantly, he will be racing on better ground (it was on the soft side) and he’s been given a break to freshen him up (there were less than 3 weeks between his previous 2 runs).
Clearly, the current form of the Paul Nicholls yard is also a massive positive.
Everything he runs at the moment, seems to either win - or at least run well - and hopefully Rhythm is a Dancer will continue that trend.
In terms of his opponents, then most of the dangerous ones appear to be at the head of the market (as you would expect !).
That said, I could certainly give Champagne Champ a chance - and he may be worth saving stakes on, at around 12/1…

1:50

This is quite a tight race - despite there being only 4 runners.
Bags Groove and Secret Investor, head the market - and I wouldn’t argue with that.
They met at Wincanton back in November, and Bags Groove came out on top, by 9 lengths.
However, Secret Investor was making his chasing debut that day - and he’s 5lb better off at the weights today.
That should make things much closer between the pair - though whether it will be sufficient to reverse the form, is a different matter.
Prior to his most recent run, Bags Groove had looked really good, over fences.
His win at Wincanton, was sandwiched between 2 equally impressive victories at Ffos Las and Huntingdon.
He’s a very nimble, clean jumping horse - and those characteristics will always make him hard to beat - particularly in novice company.
If he gets an uncontested lead today - and Noel Fehily gets him in to a rhythm - I doubt his opponents will be able to pass him.
The worry is, that he was disappointing last time - at Kempton.
Admittedly that was in grade 1 company - but he just didn’t travel as he has done in his previous races.
If Harry Fry has got him back, then I think he will win; if he’s not, then Secret Investor looks the one most likely to take advantage.
However, as you can’t beat 2/1 on either of them, the options for getting involved are limited…

2:25

This is a slightly odd race, in as much as the 3 horses who headed the early market, are all making their UK hurdling debuts…
Ecco and Red Force One are both running over hurdles for the first time; and whilst Fusil Raffles, has run over hurdles previously, that was in his native France.
All 3 are likely to improve for todays the outing - though that doesn’t mean they can’t win.
It does however mean that they were probably put in too short - and therefore were worth opposing…
There are a few options to take them on with - but I eventually plumped for Petit Palais.
He’s only run once over hurdles, when an impressive winner at Ludlow.
That track and Kempton, are quite similar (flat, right handed), so he should be well suited by todays test.
It’s also likely that he possesses a fair level of natural ability, as he’s a half brother to the 2000 guineas winners, Galileo Gold !
That certainly suggests that he will be best suited by quick ground and a relative speed test (which is what he will get this afternoon).
Of the others, Protektorat, Giving Glances and Beat the Judge, are all of some interest.
However, I suspect that all 3 are running with a view to getting them in to the Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
I doubt that is on Petit Palais’s agenda.
If he wins, I guess he could run in the Triumph, but I suspect he is a horse who will be much better suited to Aintree, rather than Cheltenham.
Anyway, that’s all in the future !
Hopefully today, he can use his experience to see off the 3 débutantes, and his natural ability to beat those who have run before.

3:00

This is a very difficult race to get involved with, as Angels Breath is impossible to support - but almost as difficult to oppose !
He made his debut in a grade 2 event at Ascot just before Christmas, and I was quite keen to take him on that day.
It’s unusual for a horse to makes its debut in a graded race - and he was also sent off a very short favourite.
Ofcourse the reason he was a strong favourite, was because he is trained by Nicky Henderson and he has plenty of horses to compare him with.
Clearly Angels Breath shows plenty at home - and in fairness, he showed quite a lot at Ascot !
He came home 4 lengths clear of his nearest rival, that day - putting up a seemingly impressive performance.
Time has shown that it maybe wasn’t quite as good as it appeared at the time - but Nicky Henderson is still talking up the horse - and as a consequence, he is an 8/11 shot today.
You can’t possibly back him at that price, because he’s not done anything on the track to warrants it.
However, Henderson is not inclined to talk up his horses, so its highly likely that Angle Breath is a big talent…
That might still not be sufficient to get him home today, in what will be much more of a speed test - particularly with Cheltenham on the horizon.
Certainly he faces a tough rival , in the shape of Scarlet Dragon.
He is rated 106 on the flat - and will be well suited by the conditions of todays race.
I could also give the Henderson second string, Daphne du Clos, a chance - though it does look as if she is using this race to prep for Cheltenham.
In the circumstances, it has be be a watching race - though it’s likely to be a very interesting one…

3:35

I really wanted to tip Talkischeap in this - but the price has gone…
He was a 7/1 chance when the final declarations came through - and would have been quite happy with 5/1 or greater.
I really didn’t expect that to be a problem, particularly with Glen Rocco and Adrian du Pont in opposition.
However, he was a best price 9/2 first thing this morning - and now you can’t beat 7/2.
You have to draw the line somewhere - and in such a competitive race, I feel that price is too short…
Ofcourse, everyone has latched on to his form with Lostintranslation and La Bague au Roi - and it is certainly strong novice form.
He also has plenty of scope for improvement and should be ideally suited by conditions.
In short he has ticks in plenty of boxes.
The issue, is simply the opposition (as well as the price !).
It’s a strong race, in which all 10 runners can be given a chance of some sort.
I feel that 5/1 is about the right price for Talkischeap - and whilst it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to drift to that price at some point, it’s not going to happen in the window where I can tip…
In terms of his opponents, then I really do think that all of them can be given a chance of some sort.
Value-wise, then Dedero Vallis is probably the best bet, at around 12/1 - but I’m not inclined to tip him purely on the grounds of theoretical value.
It has to be another watching race…


Chepstow

4:15

I’m pretty keen on Overtown Express in this.
Those of you who follow the eye-catchers in the forum will know that I put him up, following his most recent run at Sandown.
That was his second outing of the season and he travelled really powerfully until fading from the third last.
My feeling is, that run should have put him spot on for today.
He actually finished runner up in todays corresponding race, 12 months ago.
He ran off a 9lb higher mark, that day - and he also didn’t come in to the race, on the back of such a positive run.
In the circumstances, it’s hard not to be positive about his claims this afternoon !
It adds to his case, the fact that he’s running from a mark 3lb lower than his last winning mark - and he absolutely dotted up that day !
He also has a decent 3lb claimer in the saddle - so I really do think that everything is in place for a massive run.
His main opponent today, appears to be Capeland.
He’s done very well this season - but runs today on the back of a 50 day absence and following wind surgery.
My feeling is that todays race is likely to be used to get him spot on for a Cheltenham target.
The other one that sightly worries me, is Shanahans Turn.
He is arguably well handicapped - however 2 miles isn’t really his trip and again, he is likely to be using this race as a stepping stone (this time for Aintree).
Overtown Express won't be using it as a prep for anything - this is likely to be the peak of his season.
With so many other things in his favour, that means he simply has to be supported this afternoon…


Newcastle

2:40

It’s extremely unusual (almost unique !) for the Eider chase to be run on anything other than very soft ground, and todays conditions of ‘good to soft’ must be almost unprecedented…
I can recall occasions when the race has only had 2 or 3 finishers - but it’s going to be a very different contest this afternoon.
The quick ground is likely to scupper the chances of a quite a few: Daklondike and last years winners, Baywing, chief amongst them.
On the flip side, conditions are a real bonus for some of the others: non more so than favourite, Vincente…
He’s a horse who has always performed much better on quicker spring ground - and is now back down to the mark that he has run off, when twice wining the Scottish National.
As he’s also trained by Paul Nichols and is Sean Bowen’s only ride on the afternoon - it’s hard to argue with his position at the head of the market.
The only issue, is a price of 6/1, which leaves no margin for error…
Rather than side with him, I’ve decide to split stakes on a couple at bigger prices…
The first is Kimberlite Candy.
He ran really well last time, when staying on into third at Sandown.
He steps up in trip by a mile today, which is a big jump.
However, he looks as if it will suit him - and the ground should help, from a stamina perspective.
It should also help that he hails from the stable of Tom Lacey - as with 6 winners from his last 13 runners, he could hardly be in better form.
Crosspark is more exposed - but he also comes from a stable in form (Caroline Bailey).
He also ran really well last time, when finishing third behind Impulsive Star, in the classic chase at Warwick.
He’ll need to improve again to win today, but that’s not impossible - and the fact that Jamie Moore has travelled to Newcastle to ride, him is another positive.
Plenty of others can be given chances - but hopefully either Kimberlite Candy or Crosspark, can come home in front.

Fairyhouse

4:00

The absence of Presenting Percy has robbed this race of a lot of its interest - though it is still a decent contest.
Magic of Light is the one that appeals most - and if I could have secured at least 5/2 (ideally 3/1 !), I would have tipped her.
She’s been in tremendous form all this season, wining twice and placing twice, from 4 efforts.
Her rating has increased by 13lb - and the suggestion is that she’s not finished yet.
Furthermore, she should be perfectly suited by todays test.
She was beaten last time at Huntingdon, but that was over half a mile shorter - and she was staying on strongly in the closing stages.
Again, this is another race where you have to be a little mindful of what’s on the horizon (whether horses are being prepped for future targets).
However that shouldn’t be the case with Magic of Light, as she is being aimed at the Grand National and a win today, won’t affect her rating for that race.
The only slight concern is that she’s unlikely to be 100% - and that makes me a little wary about chasing down her price.
That said, I think she will win, as all of her rivals, apart from Alpha des Obeaux, have even bigger question marks against them.
He doesn’t - and the race should really rest between him and Magic of Light…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Kemp 1:15 Rhythm is a Dancer 1pt win 15/2
Kemp 2:25 Petit Palais 1pt win 6/1
Chep 4:15 Overtown Express 2pt win 9/2
Newc 2:40 Kimberlite Candy 0.5pt win 9/1
Newc 2:40 Crosspark 0.5pt win 18/1

Mentions

Kemp 1:50 Bags Groove (S )
Kemp 3:35 Talkischeap (P )
Fairy 4:00 Magic of Light (P )