Daily write-up - Feb 24th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Fontwell and Carlise in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland.

As I inferred in Fridays ‘Plans for the weekend ‘ email, it’s not exactly the best Sundays racing ever staged !

Quality races are thin on the ground - with one notable exception: the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell Park.
It’s the courses main race of the season - and they’ve been rewarded with an excellent field.

Aside from that, there are a couple of class 3 races in the UK; and a couple of uncompetitive graded races at Naas.
Not really action that you can get stuck in to !

Despite that, I’ve manage to find a tip - in the big race - and I also have some views on the other main races on the afternoon.

Here are my thoughts…


Fontwell

2:50

This really is a cracking little race…
The absence of Sussex Ranger means that only 6 will go to post - but all 6 have got a chance of some sort (and that includes the outsider, Vive le Roi).
On official ratings, there is little between the top 5 in the betting - and that’s how I would see it.
However, Old Guard and Lil Rockerfeller are far more exposed than their 3 main rivals - and therefore have less scope for improvement.
As a consequence, I am inclined to focus on the other 3.
However, even narrowing it down to 3, doesn’t make it easy…
If the Cap Fits is officially the best horse in the race - but at todays weights, he only has 1 pound in hand of both Ballymoy and Vision des Flos.
All 3 horses should be perfectly suited by the test, so at a price of 7/4, If the Cap Fits holds limited appeal…
Similarly, choosing between Ballymoy and Vision des Flos is mainly a ‘value’ exercise.
I could make a decent case for them both - but with Ballymoy priced at 7/2 and Vision des Flos 11/2, choosing became easier…
From a form perspective, I think Vision des Flos has a very good chance.
He was a high class novice hurdler last season, when he finished runner up in Grade 1 events, at both the Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
He was tried over fences, first time out this season - but unshipped his jockey and that plan was promptly put on hold !
He was a little disappointing on his next 3 starts - but then under-went wind surgery.
That seemed to have a positive effect, as on his next run, he gave Buveur D’air a real scare at Sandown - and then last weekend, lost out in a driving finish to the Kingwell hurdle at Wincanton.
Those last 2 runs, are good form, in the context of todays race - and I expect stepping up by half a mile in trip, will see Vision des Flos perform even better.
Whether it will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell.
However, it definitely puts him right in the mix - and his early price under-estimated his chance.
Fingers crossed that he can turn theoretical value in to actual profit !!

4:25

Just a few quick words on this race, as it sees Shantou Flyer trying to secure his place in the field for the Foxhunters chase at the Cheltenham festival.

I tipped him for that race a couple of weeks ago - just before he ran in a similar event to todays, at Kelso.
It was a slightly risky tip, in that he needed to finish in the first 2 that day - and he has to again today - just to qualify to run at Cheltenham !
He managed to get the job done at Kelso - but it was far more of a struggle than I expected (and would have liked !).
That tempers my enthusiasm for him a little - though in fairness, we don’t know how fit he was that day.
In truth, we don’t even know how fit he will be today.
My hope is that connections are letting him run himself into top shape, on the racecourse, rather than hard training him hard, at home.
Whatever, he really needs to deliver the goods today - as time is running out (though he is also declared to run at Leicester on Tuesday and Ludlow on Thursday - presumably in case anything goes wrong today).
If he’s anywhere near last seasons best, he will hack up today: however, if he’s in similar form to at Kelso, Southfield Vic and Three Faces West are a couple of potentially dangerous rivals.
Lets hope it’s the former situation !


Naas

2:30

If I was on top of the my eye-catcher list in the forum, Impact Factor would feature in it…
He caught my eye on his most recent run, a fortnight ago, at Punchestown.
He was a short priced favourite that day, but despite finishing fast, he couldn’t reel in Riders onthe Storm over a 2 mile trip, and was beaten just over a length.
Despite the defeat, that was a decent effort, and Impact Factor looks sure to benefit from todays step up in trip.
It’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 134 is generous - but it seems fair.
This is a competitive looking race - but I could have been very interested in him, if it weren’t for the present of Uisce Beatha…
That one beat Impactor Factor on his most recent outing (early in January) - and yet is 8lb better off at the weights today.
That’s down to Impact Factor's subsequent runs - but unless he’s improved by nearly a stone, he’s going to struggle to beat Uisce Beatha today.
The longer trip could be a factor - but in truth, it was Uisce Beatha who looked the more likely of the pair to appreciate stepping up in distance…
Uisce Beatha was priced up shorter than Impact Factor in the early betting - but he has now drifted - whilst Impact Factor has shortened.
In fact, it has reached the point where I’m very tempted to take a risk on Uisce Beatha.
The only issue is, everyone can see what I can see, so you have to be a little suspicious of the drift.
Furthermore, Uisce Beatha is owned by JP McManus, so there is always the possibility he is being readied for another day.
With a straight bat, Uisce Beatha is a bet at 7/1 - however, I’m going to resist (officially speaking !).

3:00

There are a couple of graded events on the Naas card - and this is the more appealing one, from a betting perspective - though that doesn’t say a lot !

Chosen Mate heads the betting on the back of his runner up placing in a listed event at Punchestown a fortnight ago - and I suspect he will take a good deal of beating this afternoon.
Certainly,third favourite, Prince D’Aubrelle, will have his work cut out to beat him, as he too ran in the Punchestown race and finished over 20 lengthens behind, Chosen Mate.
As it was his first run of the season, he may well improve for it - but he’ll need to !
Second favourite, Jetez, can’t be quite so easily dismissed - but he appears to have found his level, at a mark in the mid 130s - and that really shouldn’t be good enough to win a grade 2 event.
Milan Native and Hannon are both totally unexposed, so have scope for significant improvement.
However, that will be required if they are going to trouble Chosen Mate…
I wouldn’t consider supporting Chosen Mate at 6/5 - but equally, I’m struggling to find anything to oppose him with.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Font 2:50 Vision des Flos 1pt win 11/2

Mentions

Naas 2:30 Uisce Beatha (S )
Naas 3:00 Chosen Mate (P )