Daily write-up - Feb 2nd

Somewhat surprisingly, 2 NH meetings will take place this afternoon: at Sandown in the UK - and Leopardstown in the Ireland.

When I sent out the ‘Plans for the Weekend’ email on Thursday, I was very fearful that all of todays scheduled fixtures would be lost.

And whilst the weather has claimed both Musselburgh and Wetherby - the days 2 main meetings, have both survived…

It’s the first day of the 2 day Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown - and the course has put on a high class and varied card.

The meeting at Sandown hasn’t got quite the quality - but its not far behind and there are some excellent races.

It wasn’t that hard for me to find some tips - the biggest problem I faced was in deciding which of my fancies should be official tips - and which unofficial Mentions !

I ended up issuing 6 tips on the day (across 5 races) - but also have Mentions in 4 other races.

Hopefully I’ve fallen on the right side of the fence, for the majority of them !

Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my views on the days other main races…


Sandown

1:15

I think it is worth taking a small risk on Comms D’Office in this…
He’s not run for nearly 2 years - but with Venetia, that’s rarely a problem !
Furthermore, he’s only run once in the UK - but it was quite an eye catching effort.
In fact, I made him an official eye catcher at the time - I just didn’t expect to have to wait quite so long to see him run again !
The race in question, was at Haydock - and looking back, it was a strong contest.
All of the main protagonists in the race are now rated around 10lb higher than they were at the time - whereas Comms D’Office has been dropped 5lb.
In fairness, he was beaten out of sight that day, so the ratings may not be that relevant - but he did travel with real purpose, until the home turn.
That race was over 2m4f, so it’s interesting that he’s dropped back to 2 miles today.
The booking of 7lb claimer, Hugh Nugent, is also an interesting move, as it means the horse will be carrying a feather weight.
He’s also had a wind op since his last run, so there are plenty of straws to clutch at!
In truth, this doesn’t look a particularly strong contest - and there’s a fair chance that quite a few of his rivals will be using it as a prep for the Cheltenham festival.
As a consequence, Comms D’Office is worthy of support as a big price, to cause a bit of a surprise.

1:50

Once again, Buveur D’Air is using this race as his final prep for the Champion hurdle and it will be a huge shock if he is beaten.
He’s won the last 2 runnings of the race - and as he’s rated at least 22lb superior to all of todays opponents, he should have very little trouble in seeing them off.
He does have to concede upwards of 4lb to them all - but that still leaves him with over a stone in hand…
Furthermore, with Rayvin Black in the race, there should be a proper gallop.
That will reduce the risk of a tactical contest, which could possibly have made Buveur D’Air vulnerable…
On ratings, Vision des Flos should follow him home - but I’d feel less confident about that, than I would about the horse who is likely to come home in front !

2:25

This is a cracking little race - and it’s very hard to choose between the 3 main protagonists.
Lostintranslation and Defi du Seuil met at Cheltenham last time, with the former just getting the better of things.
However, Defi travelled all over the winner for most of that race, just getting worried out of things, after jumping the last.
With the benefit of that experience under his belt, I would expect Defi to reverse the form today - though that doesn’t mean he will win !
Vindication probably isn’t the most talented horse in the world (though he’s pretty useful) - but he does have an attitude to die for.
That attitude has seen him come home in front in his 6 races under rules, so far - and it’ll make him a tough nut to crack this afternoon.
My hope is that Barry Geraghty will track the pace on Defi - and then pounce after jumping the last.
I suspect that Defi has the best turn of foot - and in Barry, the perfect man to utilise it.
If it gets into a battle on the run in, I won’t be overly confident - but hopefully that’s not how things will work out !

3:00

I was tempted by Lord Napier in this - but there are just a few too many negative for me to tip him…
I nearly tipped him the last time he ran - but his price went that day and decided there was no value.
He ran a good race that day: Finishing third and staying on strongly.
Certainly, I think todays step up to nearly 3 miles should suit him - but a 4lb rise in the handicap for finishing a comfortably beaten third, was harsh.
I’m also concerned that he might not handle todays softer ground - so on balance, I decided he could only be a Mention.
The other issue, is that this is a strong race…
Casko DAiry and Ballymoy head the market on the back of impressive wins - and both have to be feared.
Keeper Hill, Folsum Blue and Flemcara, are 3 more for whom cases can be made: Whilst there are also 2 or 3 potentially lively outsiders…
In short, it’s a race that will take a bit of winning - and whilst I think that Lord Napier has a chance, I suspect he is more likely to run well and be beaten, than he is to win.
Time will tell…!

3:35

I’m a bit disappointed that I’ve ended up tipping the first and second favourite in this race - but just so you know, they didn’t occupy those market positions when I found them !
Belami des Pictons was favourite - but Amis Desbosi was a 14/1 chance.
However, as is so often the case, others pick up on their chances and by the time I’m able to tip them, the price has gone.
I often will pass in those situations - but I do like the profiles of both Belami des Pictons and Amis Desbois - and there is always the chance that their prices will drift a little, close to the off…
In terms of the cases for them:
Then Amis Desbois is a potentially well handicapped horse, who still has scope to improve over fences.
He’s already run well twice this season - and his stable is in very good form.
His prominent style of racing should be an asset around Sandown - and whilst he no longer looks massively over-priced, he should run a big race and has got a fair chance of winning…
Belami des Pictons is a different beast in so much as he’s not guaranteed to run well - but if he does, he will almost certainly win !
He’s been off the track for over 400 days - but when he was last seen, he ran Waiting Patiently to 2 lengths, in receipt of just 6lb.
Waiting Patiently is now rated 170 - which suggests that Belami ran to a mark of around 160.
That’s backed up by the third placed horse, Baywing, who was beaten over 30 lengths, but is now rated 147.
Belami himself, runs off a mark of 146 today - so could easily have a stone in hand.
If that’s the case, he will win - and whilst 4/1 is short enough in a 16 runner handicap, I feel he has to be on side, as a saver…


Leopardstown

12:50

Willie Mullins runs 5 in this - and whilst Relegate appears to be the stables number 1, I think it is worth taking a risk on Come to Me…
Jockey bookings suggest he is probably the stables number 2 - but in truth, in this kind of race, connections are often guessing as much as we are.
Virtually all of the runners are unexposed and open to significant improvement, so it’s impossible to be dogmatic about anything.
As the winner of last seasons Champion bumper, Relegate certainly has huge potential - but after just 3 runs over hurdles, Come to Me is another who could be anything…
That certainly looked true after he bolted up by 17 lengths on his seasonal debut at Cork - and on the back of that run, he was sent off at just 4/1 for a grade 1 event at Naas, at the beginning of last month.
However, he wouldn’t settle that day - and didn’t get home.
There was also a rumour that he coughed after the race - so maybe all wasn’t right with him…
Whatever, I think he is worth giving another chance - particularly as he will be sporting a first time hood today.
Hopefully that will clam him down a little and enable him to run his race.
If he does, then I suspect he has the ability to go very close…
In truth, it’s not a race that you could have a massively strong opinion on.
All of the market leaders look to have a chance - whilst Rhinestone is one at a slightly bigger price who I am also fearful of (he’s also an official eye catcher).

1:25

This is a fascinating race, as it sees ‘wonder mare’, Apples Jade, reverting to 2 miles  - and taking on last years Champion hurdle runner-up, Melon: and the winner of last years running of this race, Supersundae.
The question is whether Apples Jade will be able to fend off the boys, over a trip that is short of her best…
The crucial element is the 7lb mares allowance that she receives from her main rivals, as it means that on official ratings, she has 5lb in hand.
I suspect that is about right - the question is whether it will be sufficient to compensate for the shorter trip…
A lot of it is going to boil down to tactics.
Jack Kennedy is likely to make the running on Apples Jade - so it will come down to him getting fractions right and kicking at the right time.
If he does, then I suspect the mare will win: but if Melon and Supersundae aren’t under pressure turning in, their superior speed will probably prove crucial, up the home straight…
In the circumstances, it’s an impossible race to call - but if you can get 3/1 about Melon (and I have, on the exchanges), then I think that’s a fair bet.

2:00

This is another very hard race to call - but for different reasons…
I was very impressed by Wonder Laish when he won last time at Fairyhouse - and I suspect he could easily be up to defying an 8lb rise.
I even think that 5/1 is a fair price about him - the trouble is, he was a fair bit shorter earlier.
Therefore, you have the dilemma of whether to back a Charles Byrnes drifter !
As always, the key betting activity will take place in the final few minutes - and if Wonder Laish is strong in the market then, I think he will win.
Without that knowledge however, I just don’t feel it is a race that you can play in…
As you would expect, plenty of the other runners can be given a chance: Uradel is the obvious one for Willie and Ruby: but Eclair de Beaufeu for Gordon and Jack, also looks to have a decent chance.
Jetez, Try Again and Due Reward, complete my ‘short’ list - with the last named possibly the best value bet in the race, at around 25/1…

3:10

It’s hard to see beyond Min in this…
He’s probably the second best 2 miler around at the moment (behind Altior) - and his victory in the John Durkan at Punchestown early in December, suggest that he is as good as ever, this season.
On official ratings, he has at least 9lb in hand of all of todays rivals - and barring accidents it’s difficult to see him getting beaten…
Saint Calvados looks by far the most interesting of his rivals - but his chances could  be compromised by the presence of fellow front runner, Special Tiara.
As a consequence, Castlegrace Paddy might end up the one who chases Min home…

3:45

I was half tempted to get involved with this race, as I don’t think that market leaders, Le Richebourg or Knocknanuss, look bomb proof.
In fairness, Le Richebourg does have the strongest form: however, he’s been on the go for a long time - and he needs the ground to be relatively quick.
He may get away with things today - but I couldn’t support him at 2/1.
If I were to get involved with the race, it would probably be with Mengli Khan.
He was well beaten by Le Richburg last time (and also finished behind Voix du Reve and Us and Them) - however he was sent off favourite for that race, so clearly disappointed.
He will need to bounce back to form this afternoon - but that’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
He opened up at 10/1 last night and I would have taken a risk at that price. However, the 7/1 this morning, has no margin, considering the risks…
In fact, the most tempting bet in the race now, is Us and Them - at 20/1, each way.
I’m sure he’ll run his race - and if he does, he could easily place…

4:20

Henry de Bromhead runs 5 in this - and he must stand a very good chance of winning.
The tricky but is figuring out which one of his, to side with…
Tisamystery looks a solid contender for the stable - but the less exposed Moon over Germany and Minds Eye, look more interesting…
Both are still novices - but have shown decent form in races of that nature and look competitively handicapped on their debuts in open handicap company…
Of the 2, I slightly prefer the chances of Minds Eye (and as he was also the bigger price, that made choosing a tip, relatively easy !).
He has run in grade 1 events on his 2 most recent outings - and not been disgraced on either occasion.
Last time, he was only beaten 13 lengths by Le Richebourg - and on that run, a rating of 138 looks very fair.
Todays slightly extended 2 mile trip looks perfect for him - as he appears to want a bit further than 2 miles, but doesn’t quite stay 2m4f !
It’s really just a question of what is a fair price, in such a competitive race…
13/2 is tight enough - but I think there is still a small margin in that…
Moon over Germany looks the main danger - though he may want slightly more of a test.
Most of the other runners are far more exposed - with English raider, Duke of Navan looking the most interesting.
He’s racing off quite an attractive mark, compared to his UK mark - and odds of around 20/1 under-estimate his chance.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB






Tips

Sand 1:15 Commis D'Office 0.5pt win 20/1
Sand 2:25 Defi du Seuil 1pt win 10/3
Sand 3:35 Ami Desbois 1pt win 15/2
Sand 3:35 Belami des Pictons 0.5pt win 4/1
Leop 12:50 Come to Me 0.5pt win 14/1
Leop 4:20 Minds Eye 1pt win 13/2

Mentions

Sand 3:00 Lord Napier (C )
Leop 1:25 Melon (P )
Leop 2:00 Wonder Laish (C )
Leop 3:45 Us and Them (O )