Daily write-up - Mar 15th (Cheltenham - Day 4)

Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival…

It’s been a tough week so far - but I kind of expected that.

It’s getting harder and harder to find decent bets at Cheltenham.

Yesterday, there were 6 very well backed winners - and one complete rag.
As a ‘value bettor’, that’s not a set of results that I would want…

I felt that all of the well backed winners, had been put in plenty short enough in the morning - yet they were all backed in to even shorter.

Sire du Berlais was a classic example: 11/2 in the morning - became 4/1 at the off.
I thought it might happen - but there is no way I could have got involved with the horse, using conventional measures of price and value.

However, they seem to count for little at Cheltenham - which is concerning…

In truth, this isn't the first year this has happened - and I do need to think long and hard about how I tackle future Cheltenhams.

The TVB season is 5 months long - and I don’t want the results skewed by 4 crazy days betting !

Anyway, enough of the defeatest talk - and on to finding some winners !

Unfortunately, today looks tough (even by this weeks standards !).

I’ve managed to find a few tips - though I’ve adopted a slightly different approach.
I’ve gone for a couple in each of the days 3 handicaps - and have tipped what I consider the most likely winner, in addition to a ‘value’ bet…

There are also a couple of ante-post positions, from earlier in the season.

Hopefully at least one of the tips will come home in front, and rescue the week !

Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other races…


Cheltenham

1:30

Sir Erec is ridiculously short for this, based on his form over hurdles - but I suspect he will win.
Rated 105 on the flat (which is group class), he is unbeaten in 2 runs over hurdles.
He won narrowly on his debut at Leopardstown over Christmas, before following up in the Grade 1 Spring juvenile at the Dublin festival, in February.
He was impressive on the latter occasion - but had the run of the race from the front - and his 6 length winning margin, probably flatters him.
Certainly, on his debut win, he has little in hand of Tiger Tap Tap.
He beat that one by just a neck, so he must be theoretical value, at 10/1…
However, Sir Erec is trained by Joseph O’Brien and he has an extremely strong hand of juvenile hurdlers.
His Fakir D’oudaries was sent off joint favourite for the Supreme on Tuesday, having been re-routed from this race, to avoid clashing with Sir Erec.
He also trained Band of Outlaws, who won the Fred Winter on Wednesday, having been backed as if defeat was out the question (which it was !).
Sir Erec is apparently considered in a different league to those two - and as a consequence, he is going to be very hard to beat today.
In truth, even if I felt it was worth the risk to take him on, I don’t know what I would oppose him with.
Whilst half cases can be made for a few of his opponents, non of them have stand out credentials.
For those who fancy a real punt, then Hannon EW, is quite interesting.
However, for those who just want to back a winner, Sir Erec is almost certainly the way to go…

2:10

The first of the days big handicaps - and arguably the most open of the 3.
I reckon that a chance can be given to at least half the runners - though I’m sure the market will have polarised its opinion, come the off !
I’ve decided to take 2 Irish trained runners against the field: one trained by Willie Mullins and the other by Gordon Elliott - so there is nothing wrong with their credentials !
Both trainers saddle 3 in the race, so the first challenge, is working out their best chance.
For Mullins, I hope it is Mr Adjudicator, who is ridden by Paul Townend (Ruby is on the favourite, Whiskey Sour).
Mr Adjudicator finished second in last seasons Triumph hurdle, beaten a couple of lengths by Farclas.
He followed up that run, by occupying the same position in the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the Punchestown festival.
He’s only run once this season - when once again finishing second, this time at Naas.
He was actually little flattered by the result that day, as Saldier (the horse who beat him at Punchestown), would have finished ahead of him but for falling at the last.
That said, the winner of the race was Espoir Dallen - and following his romp in the Champion on Tuesday, an 11 length defeat, doesn’t look too bad !
In truth, it’s hard to get a proper handle on Mr Adjudicator.
However, there is a chance that he is top class - and even off a mark of 149, I think he is worth a risk.
Eclair de Beaufeur is the other one I want on side.
He’s ridden by Jack Kennedy - and does appear to be the main hope for Gordon Elliott.
He’s a relatively inexperienced novice, who seems to be progressing - and who ran really well on his handicap debut, last time out.
That was in a very valuable handicap at the Dublin festival - and his fourth placing was an excellent effort, considering his inexperience.
If he can build on that run, then I think he has every chance, this afternoon..,.
Of the others, then a case could be made for plenty - though nothing more compelling than the cases for Mr Adjudicator and Eclair de Beaufeur.

2:50

Whilst this may not be a handicap, it’s as tricky to unravel as any handicap that’s been run all week.
Historically, it’s a race which has been won by a ‘tough’ horse, so the inclination is to oppose those with limited experience (which includes a few of the market leaders).
However, even applying that criteria, leaves far more who have a chance, than I feel comfortable with…
My original intention was to tip Derrinross.
However, the form of his defeats of Sams Profile and Defi Bleu, doesn’t look as strong as I would like.
He’s definitely got possibilities - but his odds of 10/1, look about right…
Of the market leaders, then Lisnagar Oscar and Commander of Fleet are the 2 of most interest - but I really couldn’t back anything at single figures, in this race.
Plenty of the outsiders can be given half chances, including Salsaretta, Nadaitak and First Approach - but it would be tough to choose just one of them to side with, and I don’t really want to be taking 3 speculative shots at the race (at a minimum !).
On balance, I feel it’s a race that can only be watched.
I honestly think that a case could be made for at least 15 of the runners - and whilst there is almost certainly some theoretical value in the race, you’ll need a fair bit of luck in order to land on the winner…

3:30

The 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup looks only marginally easier to solve than the race that precedes it !
16 runners - of which at least half can be given a chance.
As is so often the case in these races, rhythm and jumping are likely to be the deciding factors - but figuring those out in advance, is virtually impossible.
Presenting Percy and Clan des Obeux head the market - and I think that is right.
They are both young progressive chasers, who should be well suited to todays test.
I certainly prefer them to last seasons winner, Native River.
Everything fell right for him last season - and I’ll be surprised if that happens again today.
I could see him getting placed - but I can’t see him winning…
Kemboy, Belshill, Al Boum Photo and Invitation Only, all represent Willie Mullins and they have a chance of breaking his duck in the race.
That said, I’m not convinced that any of them are quite up to the level required to win a Gold Cup.
Of the 4, I just prefer the chances of Al Boum Photo - though he would be better on  softer ground and over a slightly shorter trip.
Might Bite and Thistlecrack have both been top class horses - but it’s rare for a Gold Cup to be won by a horse of their ages (10 & 11) - particularly when the field is as strong as todays.
And then there is Shattered Love…
I tipped her ante post, just before she ran in the Savill chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
She finished last in the race (not ideal !) - but she hated the ground.
She’s not run since - and has under gone a wind op in the interim.
On her form from last season, she can be given a chance.
She was most impressive when winning the JLT; and then ran Al Boum Photo close, when probably not quite at her peak.
I’m absolutely sure that Gordon Elliott will have her spot on for today - and whilst she needs to find about 10lb of improvement to have a chance of winning, that’s not impossible.
If you’ve not yet backed her, then at 25/1 or better, she is worth a small play (maybe EW).
As for the most likely winner: then I would suggest Clan des Obeaux - but in such a strong race, he can’t be a bet, at just 9/2…

4:10

Whilst 24 might go to post for this, I suspect that only half a dozen of them, will actually count…
Unsurprisingly, those half dozen all sit at the head of the betting - and thankfully, they include Shantou Flyer.
I put him up as an ante-post tip last month - and he was a risky one, to say the least !
In order to just get a run in todays race, he first needed to finish in the top 2 in a couple of hunter chases - and the poor weather and equine flu, nearly managed to prevent him from achieving that.
However, he somehow did it: by first wining at Kelso - and then following up at Fontwell, 10 days later…
In truth, neither victory was achieved as I would have liked: he was very laboured at Kelso - and then seemed to endure a particularly hard race at Fontwell.
Still, he’s made it here - and had almost 3 weeks to recover from his most recent run.
Assuming that race didn’t bottom him, then I doubt he’ll want for fitness !
And in her does arrive in peak form, then I really think he will take a bit of beating.
On official ratings, he is the second best horse in the race - behind Ucello Conti - but unlike that one, Shantou Flyer is still at his peak (9 years old) and has very strong festival form.
It’s also very interesting that he gets a change of head gear today.
I suspect the horse is a bit of a thinker. He wore cheek pieces for the first time, when second at the course on new Years day last year; and then sported a first time visor when runner up in last years Ultima.
Hopefully the blinkers which have been enlisted today, will encourage him to put his best foot forward.
The dangers are obvious: in addition to Ucelle Conti, they are Stand up and Fight, Hazel Hill, Caid du Berlais and Road to Rome.
All 5 can be given a chance and I wouldn’t want to pick between them.
That said, if Shantou Flyer runs as well as he can, then I think he will be very hard to beat…

4:50

Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in this race - and I think it is worth siding with a couple of his runners, to keep that going…
Le Prezien won the race for him last season and it’s hard to think that he won’t go very close again today, off a mark just 1lb higher.
This kind of race is always going to suit Le Prezien, because it tends to be run at a million miles an hour.
If Barry Geraghty can get him settled and jumping out the back, then there is a good chance he will be able to pick off his rivals up the home straight.
That’s what happened 12 months ago - and there is a distinct possibility that it will happen again this afternoon.
The caveats are that his jumping will need to hold up - and the ground will need to be soft-ish.
Assuming that is the case, then I think he could take a bit of stopping.
That said, there is a chance that his stablemate, Magic Star, will prove too well handicapped for him to handle…
He was an eye catcher on his UK debut - and whilst he seemed to disappoint next time, subsequent events showed that his run at Ascot, behind Hell’s Kitchen and Janika, was much better than it looked at the time.
On his only subsequent run, he hacked up at Wincanton, having been backed at if defeat was out of the question.
He’s been raised 7lb for that win - but he’s a young progressive horse - and that may  not stop him…
Of the others, then Not Another Muddle and Minds Eye look the biggest dangers - but like Magic Star, they have been well found in the market - and I prefer his chances.
Of the outsiders, then Mr Medic is the one that interest me most, stepping back in trip.
However, he needs decent ground to be at his best…

5:30

The final race of the 2019 festival - and whilst 24 runners and conditional jockeys suggest anything could happen, I suspect that the outcome could be quite predictable…
Dallas des Pictons and Early Doors dominate the market - and I won’t be overly surprised if they dominate the race.
Both have very strong credentials: with the former looking a horse on a serious upward curve: and the latter appearing to have been targeted at this race, having  finished third in the corresponding contest 12 months ago.
I could have sided with either - but at 3/1 Dalla des Pictons and 11/2 Early Doors, the market effectively made the decision for me.
It strikes me as very significant that Jonjo O’Neill Jnr rides Early Doors, when Big Time Dancer is also in the race.
That horse gave him the biggest win of his career, so far, when wining the Lanzarote last time at Kempton.
Getting off him can’t have been an easy thing to do - and just adds more weight to the argument that Early Doors has been targeted at the race.
There is little that can be taken from his 3 runs, since last seasons festival - as in 2 of them, he has finished miles behind Apples Jade.
However, I suspect those outings were simply about keeping him ticking over - with today the day that really counts…
Whilst I do expect the race to be dominated by the 2 market leaders, as we’ve seen a couple of times this week, they can some times blow out.
In case that happens, then I think it is worth also having Coolanley on side, as he looks massively over-priced…
He won a grade 2 over today course in November - and whilst he has disappointed in his 2 subsequent races, if Fergal O’Brien can get him back to peak form today, he would have a real chance.
Certainly, his mark of 140 looks feasible - and booking of Conor Brace, is a definite positive.
At 33/1, he is just too tempting to resist..!


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Chel 2:10 Mr Adjudicator 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 2:10 Eclair de Beaufeu 0.5pt win 12/1
Chel 3:30 Shattered Love 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Shantou Flyer 0.5pt win 14/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:50 Magic Saint 0.5pt win 5/1
Chel 4:50 Le Prezien 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 5:30 Early Doors 0.5pt win 11/2
Chel 5:30 Coolanley 0.5pt win 33/1

Mentions

Chel 1:30 Hannon EW
Chel 2:50 Derrinross (O )

Review of the day

There was no joy again for todays tips - which was disappointing, considering that most of them ran really well.

However, at Cheltenham, running well is rarely good enough - you need to put in a flawless round, and non of them quite managed to do that…

First up it was Vinndication.
I knew he would have his work cut out to reverse Sandown form with Defi de Seuil and Lostintranslation - but felt there was a chance that he could do just that.

However, an early mistake put him on the back foot - and with his 2 main opponents barely making a mistake between them, he was never able to mount a meaningful challenge.

He ran well, and was just nosed out of fourth place - which was probably a fair reflection of his ability…

It was a similar story with Road to Respect.
He was the main tip on the day - and I really thought he would run well.
And he did just that, stalking the leader throughout and seemingly travelling nicely.

However, he made a crucial mistake at the third last, just as he was about to mount his challenge - and he couldn't recover from that.
Ultimately, he finished third - beaten 3 lengths, by a horse who got the run of the race and jumped superbly…

I tipped 2 in the Stayers hurdle - and again, they both ran well.

In fact, Sam Spinner ran exceptionally well - and just for a moment, approaching the last, it looked as if he might pull off a huge shock.
However, Paisley Park proved to be as good as his reputation, and he collared Sam Spinner on the run to the last - and then stayed on up the hill.

It reminded me of Lil Rockerfeller a couple of years back - it’s fair to say that the Stayers hurdle is not my favourite race at the Festival !

Next it was the Plate - and again, Bouvreuil ran a great race - but ended up with nothing to show for it.

He was baulked by an early faller - but travelled really powerfully until the home turn.
The problem for him, was that the 4 market leaders were all in front of him - and all travelling just as well.

And unfortunately, non of them faltered up the hill - and try as Richie McLernon might, he couldn’t quite get Bouvreuil into the frame.
It was yet another big effort - but again, that counted for nothing…

The final tips on the day ran in the Mares novice hurdle.

I was keen to take on favourite Epatante - and I was right to do so,.
I even think I picked a couple of fair ones to oppose her with, as both Elusive Belle and Indefatigable, ran well.
However, once again, neither ran quite well enough - and in a finish of rank outsiders, Indefatigable did best of the pair, with an honourable fifth placing.

As for the Mentions:
Then somehow, Barry Geraghty managed to get Sire du Berlais home in front in the Pertemps final.
He was backed in to 4/1 at the off - but I’ve no idea how he managed to win.
Somehow, the very well backed ones just seem to…

Captain Chaos also ran really well in the Fulke Walwyn.
But having led to the home turn, his stamina gave out up the straight (as I feared it might)…

Just one day left then, to right the weeks wrongs.

No pressure :)

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 14th (Cheltenham - Day 3)

Day 3 of the Cheltenham festival…

The action will switch to the new course this afternoon, so all of the races will be run on fresh ground.

It looked to be riding just on the soft side yesterday - and it shouldn’t be any worse today.

Looking at yesterdays results, with the final 4 races all won by short priced favourites, I was always going to struggle,

My hopes are higher for today.
Historically, Thursdays races tend to have the best betting shape.

Ofcourse, even if opportunities exist, then they still need to be converted - and for that to happen, we’ll need a bit of luck.
Fingers crossed !

I’ve ended up with 7 tips on the day (including an ante-post one).
I could easily have issued a few more - but I’ve declined to take on 2 of the big field handicaps.

I’ve still got views on them, however - in addition to the rationale behind the days tips…


Cheltenham

1:30

For a few months now, the market for this race has been dominated by Defi du Seuil and Lostintranslation.
They have already met twice this year - and there has been precious little between them.
On the first occasion, Lostintransation got back up to pip an idling Defi Du Seuil; whilst on the second meeting, Defi was delivered later by Barry Geraghty and managed to gain his revenge.
I suspect there will be little between the pair again this afternoon - and they definitely set the standard for the race - but I’m hopeful that Vinndication will be able to get the better of them…
On first viewing, that might seem unlikely as he was comfortably beaten by them both last time out at Sandown.
However, as we’ve already seen this week, Sandown and Cheltenham present very different tests - and Vinndication was sent off 11/8 favourite that day.
His price was down to the fact that he was, until then, unbeaten over obstacles.
More than that, he had showed very good form - and a really willing attitude.
There was nothing wrong with his attitude at Sandown - and ultimately he was only beaten 3 lengths.
In a way, it’s still a little surprising that he is taking on the 2 horses who beat him, when the initial feeling seemed to be that he would benefit from a step up in trip.
However, his trainer has been very bullish about his chances, following some strong recent home work - and ultimately, 3 lengths isn’t a huge distance to recover.
Outside of the ‘big 3’, then there is a strong challenge from Ireland - and in particular the stable of Willie Mullins.
Real Steal looks to be his number one contender - and he has won well on his two most recent outings.
However, he had limitations over hurdles - and also fell on his chasing debut.
He will need to be improving fast, if he is to take care of the English horses.
That’s also true for Voix du Reve - though he may benefit from a step up in distance.
The mare, Pravalaguna, has a chance; as does the Gordon Elliott trained Mengli Khan - in short, it’s quite an open race.
That said, I’ll be disappointed if Vinndication doesn’t run really well - and with his battling attitude, whatever beats him, is likely to know it’s been in a race.

2:10

The presence of Sire du Berlais, makes this a tough race to play in…
He stayed on well to finish fourth in last seasons Martin Pipe hurdle, when running from a 2lb higher mark.
He’s only run 3 times since then, most recently when given a masterful ride by Davy, to finish sixth in the Leopardstown the qualifier for this series.
It’s necessary to finish in the first 6 in one of the qualifiers in order to make it into the final - and Davy squeezed him into precisely that position, with the accuracy of a trained marksman !
There is little doubt the horse has been targeted at this race - and connections have a well handicapped horse, who could still be improving,
The fitting of first time cheek pieces is another tell tale sign - and he’s clearly going to take a lot of beating.
The issue is the price: He’s 5/1 in a 24 runner handicap.
I guess I would have less of an issue with that, if he had the actual form to match the price - but it’s more about reading between the lines…
Ultimately, I would expect the market to tell.
11/2 is tight, but he could easily go off a point or two shorter.
If he does, then I doubt you will need to look anywhere else for the winner…
Of the others, then I was quite interested in Abolitionist, for Dr Newland: however he was tipped in a couple of places yesterday afternoon - and the 25/1 available early, soon became 16/1.
I would expect him to run well - but there isn’t too much value left in his price.

2:50

I’m pretty keen on Road to Respect in this.
Partially because I think he’s the best horse in the race: and partially because I think the race will be run to suit him… 
In terms of pure ability, then he is the joint highest rated horse in the race, along with Frodon.
More than that, he has earnt his rating, via a series of big efforts in top class races.
He was runner up last time out, in the Irish Gold cup; and that followed a third place in the grade 1 Savills chase at Christmas, when the race didn’t pan out well for him.
He has also got excellent festival form.
He hacked up in the Plate, a couple of seasons back - and then finished fourth in last years Gold Cup.
That race was run on ground softer than he would like, but he was still going as well as anything, at the top of the hill, before his stamina ebbed away up the home straight.
Cutting him back in trip today, looks a smart move - and dropping him a touch in grade, could prove crucial.
That said, this is a tough race - and he faces some worthy opponents.
However 2 of his main rivals, are habitual front runners - and I think that with help Road to Respect as much as it will hinder them.
Both Monalee and Frodon need to lead - and that’s not going to be possible !
In fact, they might find themselves both under pressure from Un de Sceaux - so there really could be a pace burn up.
Such a scenario will suit Road to Respect perfectly, as he likes to travel in behind horses…
In the circumstances, it could mean that Footpad is his biggest danger.
He looked a world beater as a novice last season - but just hasn’t looked the same horse this campaign.
In fairness, he’s only run twice this season, so it’s a bit early to be writing him off; however, there is also a chance that his novice of last year, flattered him…
Of the outsiders, then last years winner, Balco des Flos, looks by far the most dangerous.
However, he has been disappointing this season, so will need to bounce back to his very best - and even if that happens, he might still not be good enough to beat Road to respect…
There is little doubt in my mind that Road to Respect will take a world of beating in this - provided he gets that bit of luck which you always need.
Here’s hoping !

3:30

Paisley Park is being touted as a certainty in this - but I’m not so sure…
Don’t get me wrong, he’s been massively impressive in his races this season - and fully deserves to be at the head of the market for todays race.
However, he’s been on the go since October, and I wonder whether he will still be at his peak this afternoon.
His profile reminds me of that of Unowhatimeanharry, when he ran in the race a couple of seasons back - and he got beaten…
The tricky part, is finding one to beat him…
Faugheen is second favourite - but he’s now 11 and comes here on the back of a mother and father of a fall.
I suspect he is more likely to get pulled up (and retired) than he is to win…
The most obvious one to take advantage if Paisley Park isn’t at his peak, is Supasundae.
He finished runner up in the race 12 months ago - just outsprinted in the finish, by Penhill.
It helped his case that there wasn’t much pace on in last years race - but that may  be the case again this afternoon.
There is a chance that Ruby will try and dictate things on Faugheen (which would make him dangerous) - though I suspect he will be harried up front by Sam Spinner and Nautical Nitwit.
I put up Sam Spinner as an ante post tip, back in November.
He was massively disappointing on his first 2 runs this season - but did do a little better last time.
In truth, I would be very surprised if he were to win this afternoon - but at least he’s turned up, so we do have some chance of collecting !
However, I think the chance of collecting on Supasundae is much higher.
It does depend on the 2 market leaders under-performing - but I think that is distinctly possible.
Outside of them, the race is there for the taking - and hopefully Supasundae will be able to take it !

4:10

He may only be 8 years old, but Bouvreuil has already got a very impressive record at the Cheltenham festival…
Formerly trained by Paul Nichols, he finished runner up in the Fred Winter hurdle at the 2015 festival; before filling the same spot, 12 months later in the novice handicap chase.
He could only manage third in the 2017 Plate - but that was behind Road to Respect (as above !) and Baron Alco - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
Last season, he was well fancied for the Grand Annual - but was brought down at the second fence.
I think he deserves a change of festival fortune - and hopefully he will get that this afternoon…
He is now in the care of Ben Haslam, and won on his debut for him at Wetherby in December.
That was a good effort. He beat Movie Legend by a length - and that one has subsequently won twice and is now rated 9lb higher in the handicap.
Bouvreuil on the other hand, is just 3lb higher - having disappointed on his only subsequent run…
That was also in December and I think it is in his favour that he has been kept fresh since then.
He’s also had wind surgery - and I suspect he will primed to run a big race today.
Clearly he will need some luck - but if he gets that, I can’t see him not going very close.
In truth, despite the numbers, this doesn’t look the most competitive of races…
Janika and Siruh du Lac set the standard - but they are both a fair bit higher in the handicap, than when fighting out the finish of a good race on Trials day.
Spiritofthegame also ran well that day - but he looked primed to win on that occasion, so I wonder how much improvement he has in him…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Azzerti run well - though I’m not sure that todays test is ideal for him…
I think there can be little doubt it is ideal for Bouvreuil - and I expect him to run a really big race.
Whether that will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell - but I’m hopeful !

4:50

This is not a race that I particularly expected to be playing in - but a Epatante looks to have been put in too short - and that means there is value elsewhere…
In fairness, to Epatante, she’s nearly impossible to get a handle on, having been a very easy winner of her 2 UK races.
She is clearly held in high regard by connections - but the fitting of a first time hood, hints at issues - and this is too competitive a race to be backing something at 2/1…
Somewhat Ironically, I’m taking her on with Elusive Belle: who has also only run twice in the UK - and will be wearing a first time hood !
However, she was a 16/1 shot yesterday evening, which made her far more appealing.
Whether she has as much ability as Epatante, remains to be seen: but a 19 length destruction of a 136 rated horse (admittedly in receipt of a fair chunk of weight), suggests she could be very useful indeed.
She didn’t give herself any chance of getting home when pulling too hard in a small field race, last time - but todays bigger field and the fitting of the hood, should enable her to show what she is capable of this afternoon…
In addition to her, I want Indefatigable on side, at an even bigger price…
She has finished runner up on her 2 most recent outings. Firstly behind Posh Trish at Taunton; and then behind Lady Buttons, at Doncaster.
They are both strong pieces of form. She was only beaten 2 lengths by Post Trish at Taunton and it really doesn’t make any sense, that she can be backed at the same price to place, as Posh Trish can be backed to win.
In truth, there are plenty of others who can also be given a chance…
Sancta Simona and My Sister Sarah, look two strong contenders for Willie Mullins: whilst Sinoria is a mare on an upward trajectory, who I would expect to run very well.

5:30

I have to be honest, I ran out of time to assess this race properly - and whilst I do have a few half fancies, I don’t want to be tipping something that I’ve not fully researched…
As with the Pertemps final you have to be very fearful that Gordon Elliot has plotted one up here, in the shape of Measureofmydreams.
He finished third behind Minella Roccoa and Native River in the 2016 NH chase - and off a mark of 137 today, he could be thrown in.
He showed distinct promise on his comeback from injury at Fairyhouse last month - and the booking of Jamie Codd shows intent.
However, I really couldn’t entertain him at 9/2 (even less than Sire du Berlais !).
On first inspection, I was drawn to No Comment and Just a Sting, as both should have scope for improvement.
Of the pair, I would slightly prefer the chances of No Comment.
He is a classy horse, who ran well, to a point, in last seasons NH chase.
The other 2 that I briefly considered getting involved with, are Captain Chaos and Perfect Candidate.
I could certainly see the former running well - though I would have some concerns about him getting up the hill.
Perfect Candidate will have no issue with the hill, the question is smply whether his advancing years have caught up with him (he’s now 12).
On balance, I just didn’t feel sufficiently strongly about anything to warrant getting involved with the race.
If forced, I’d side with Cpatain Chaos, each way - and he might be worth a small play if you can get 25/1 and reasonable place terms…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Chel 1:30 Vinndication 1pt win 8/1
Chel 2:50 Road to Respect 2pt win 9/2
Chel 3:30 Supasundae 1pt win 8/1
Chel 3:30 Sam Spinner 0.5pt win 25/1 (ante-post)
Chel 4:10 Bouvreuil 0.5pt EW 25/1
Chel 4:50 Indefatigable 0.5pt EW 33/1
Chel 4:50 Elusive Belle 0.5pt win 16/1

Mentions

Chel 2:10 Sire du Berlais (S )
Chel 5:30 Captain Chaos EW

Review of the day

There was no joy with todays tips - which was disappointing, if not entirely surprising…

It always looked like being a tough day - and my high risk strategy didn’t pay off.

Most of the tips were speculative plays - the main exception being Sams Profile, in the opener.

I thought he had a good chance - and he ran a fair race.
He was still in there pitching at the second last, but he slipped slightly on landing after jumping the hurdle - and that was his race over.

The Worlds End was a very speculative play, against 3 strongly fancied opponents - but I hoped he would at least give us a decent run for our money.

Alas, that wasn’t really the case, as his jumping was hesitant throughout, and he was beaten a fair way from home.

The race was won in impressive style, by Topofthegame.
I could easily have put us on him, if he’d been any kind of price this morning.
However, 7/2 was as good as it got - and there seemed minimal margin in that.

His SP of 4/1 was a little better - and may have tempted me in - but it wasn’t an option when I was able to tip…

I took 2 against the field in the Coral Cup - and it’s fair to say that they ran contrasting races !

Killultagh Vic was a huge disappointment (having been weak in the market) and was never sighted.
Brio Conti on the other hand, tanked through the race, and arguably could have won.

However, he did a bit too much, too soon - and had little left for the final hill.

At Cheltenham, optimal distribution of energy is absolutely key.
He’s clearly still a well handicapped horse however, and I’ll not be at all surprised if he gains compensation at Aintree…

Altior managed to win the Champion chase - though it was a bit of a struggle !

He looked beaten jumping the last, but the horse has a rare desire to win - and it seemed almost inevitable that he would battle back, past Politologue and Sceau Royal, up the hill.

Any other horse would have lost - but Altior is something special.

Tiger Roll is also turning into something special…
I felt he had to be opposed in the cross country chase - but he cantered through the entire race and never looked remotely like getting beaten…

Auvergnat was a horrible late drifter (out to 15 on BF) - and ran accordingly.
Tea for Two on the other hand, was very well backed.
He was just starting to make his move, when he stumbled and unseated Lizzy Kelly.

I very much doubt he would have beaten Tiger Roll - but it would have been interesting to see how close he could have got…

As I said this morning, the Fred Winter looked a complete lottery - so it was a little surprising to see Band of Outlaws backed in to 7/2, at the off - though far less so, to then see him win comfortably !

It may be the Cheltenham festival - but that just means that the certainties carry even more money !

And that was also the case in the finale, where Envoi Allen was backed into 2/1 fav - and held off the 7/2 second fav.
In fairness, the winner did cost £400K - so I guess connections were keen to recoup  some of their cash.

It was all a bit of a shame for Thyme Hill, who ran an absolute cracker for a 20/1 shot - but could only manage third place…

Hopefully tomorrow will deliver better.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 13th (Cheltenham - Day 2)

Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival…

It wasn’t easy to figure out the exact state of the ground, yesterday…

The times for most of the races, weren’t too bad (suggesting conditions no worse than soft) - and this was backed up visually, in some of the races.
However, the post race jockey comments, tended to suggest it was borderline heavy - and things certainly looked pretty desperate in the last !

I guess it’s fair to say that the surface didn’t suit fast ground horses - and was a good deal softer than the ground that has been raced on for the past few months.

What happens to it from here however, remains in the lap of the weather gods… (with more rain forecast)

In terms of todays racing, then it’s another excellent day.

The feared destructive winds, haven’t materialised, so racing goes ahead as planned  (probably !)

Altior is the headline act in the Champion chase - but there is a decent supporting card (as you would expect).

Wednesday tends to be the hardest day to find tips, as a few of the races don’t tend to lend themselves to betting.
That’s the case again today - and I’ve not forced things.

As a consequence, there are 7 tips on the day, across 5 races.

Ofcourse, I’ve also got views on the the days other races.

Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my other thoughts on the day…


Cheltenham

1:30

Despite a last time out defeat to Battleoverdoyen at Naas, early in January, I want to be with Sams Profile in this…
Superficially, there appears little reason why he should reverse the form today - but I’m optimistic he will.
For a start, Sams Profile is the younger horse and was having only his third run over hurdles, that day.
His inexperience seemed to catch him out early in the race, when his jumping was poor.
He gradually warmed to the task as the race progressed, and it says much for his ability that he still had every chance turning in.
However, he was hampered a couple of times, approaching the second last - and by the time he got into the clear, Battleoverdoyen had flown.
He ran on strongly to the line, taking a comfortable second placing - and I suspect he will improve significantly for the experience.
Whether that will enable him to reverse the form, remains to be seen - but I think he is a sporting bet to do so.
In truth, even if he can get the better of Battleoverdoyen this is still a strong field.
However, I have some doubts concerning the favourite, Champ - whilst the other main English challenger, Brewinupastorm, also looks vulnerable…
That said, there aren’t many I could comfortably eliminate, so Sams Profile could still have his work cut out.
However, I do very much like his trainer, Mouse Morris - and I get the feeling that Sams Profile is a very good horse.
Hopefully he will demonstrate that to be the case, this afternoon !

2:10

This race has got a similar shape to yesterday Champion hurdle, with 3 horses dominating the betting…
The market says that the winner will come from Delta Work; Santini or Topofthegame - and that may well be the case.
However, as yesterdays Champion demonstrated, almost anything can happen in a horse race - never mind a 3 mile novice chase, run on questionable ground !
In the circumstances, I think it is worth taking a risk on one of the outsiders - and I’ve opted to side with The Worlds End…
On official ratings, he is the joint best horse in the race, along with Delta Work and Topofthegame; he can also boast an impressive course win, back in December - so his credentials aren’t bad for a 25/1 shot…
On the flip side, there is a question mark over him, on soft ground - and he did disappoint last time out.
That was in the Kauto Star novice chase at Kempton, when he finished well behind both Topofthegame and Santini.
However he was sent off at just 6/1 that day - but didn’t appear to handle the track.
It strikes me as significant that he’s not been seen since then - and also that he returns, sporting first time cheek pieces.
As was the case 12 months ago, his trainer Tom George, seems to have his string in top form for the festival (he had a couple of big priced runners perform very well yesterday), and simply, I think the horse has been under-estimated by the market…
Of the ‘big 3’ then I would be least keen on Santini,
I’m sure the horse has huge talent - but his preparation has been far from ideal and I suspect that will ultimately catch him out today.
The question mark with Topofthegame, is his stamina - if he doesn’t settle early in the race.
Delta Work does look bomb proof - the question is simply whether he is good enough (he’s not beaten a great deal, in Ireland).
The official handicapper says he might be - but then again, so might The Worlds End !
At 10 times the price, the latter has to be worth a small risk…

2:40

There is a monster field of 25 for this - but I’m happy enough siding with just 2, in the shape of Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti.
Killultagh Vic is a former festival winner - who has also shown himself capable of operating at grade 1 level.
His festival win came in the 2015 Marin Pipe hurdle - and he followed that up next time, by beating Thistlecrack at Punchestown.
The following season, he was in the process of making up into a top class novice chaser - but a fall at Leopardstown derailed his career.
Despite that, he would have won the last years Irish Gold cup, if he hadn’t fallen at the last, when in the lead.
The bottom line with him, is that he is a grade 1 horse - when at his best.
There is a chance he might not be at his best today - but he runs off a mark of just 150, and if he is, I think he will win.
Certainly, at odds of 14/1, he is worth a risk…
The other one I want on side, is Brio Conti…
He was a winning Mention at Ascot, last time (one of 3 on the day - as I’m sure you all recall !).
I was put off tipping him that day, because Paul Nichols reckoned he would need the run.
That might have been the case - but it didn’t stop him from winning !
He has only been raised 5lb for the victory - and if Nichols was right and he did need the run, then I think he will go very close again today.
Certainly, he has form which suggests he could still be leniently rated off a mark of 146 - and his stable couldn’t be in better form…
As you would expect, in a race of this nature, there are plenty of others, for whom half cases could be made…
I thought Dancing on my Own looked very interesting - but the fancy prices on him were taken before the market had stabilised.
I would expect Vision des Flos to run well - but he may be a shade high in the weights: whilst Cracking Smart looks dangerous, for Gordon Elliot.
In truth, I could easily list a few more ‘dangers’ but in reality, I‘m happy that Killultagh Vic and Brio Conti have both got excellent chances in a very competitive race.

3:30

It’s always great to see a true champion performing - and there can be little doubt that Altior is a true champion.
Unbeaten in 17 races over obstacles, he will today, attempt to win at his fourth successive Cheltenham festival.
It’s quite possible, that at some point in the race, he will look in trouble: however, in all probability, that won’t be when as he powers up the final hill !
It says much, that Min looks, by some way, his biggest rival today.
However, that was also the case 12 months ago, when Altior dispatched him by 7 lengths - and also in in 2015 when he beat him by exactly the same margin, in the Supreme hurdle.
In truth, Altior looks bomb proof.
The only way he is likely to be beaten is if there is no pace in the race - or if he makes a catastrophic mistake (or finds himself in the wrong place at the wrong time).
Saint Calvados and Hell’s Kitchen should ensure there is pace in the race: and whilst mistakes and bad luck are always possible, they are not things which I feel comfortable using as an argument, to take on any horse (and certainly not Altior !).
Hopefully he will just romp home - and we will be treated to the sight of a true champion, performing at the peak of his powers.
After all, that’s really what the Cheltenham festival should be about…

4:10

Admirable horse that he is, I feel that Tiger Roll has to be taken on at odds of 5/4, in this…
Of course, he won the corresponding race last year - and followed up in the Grand National - so his credentials are very strong.
However, with 30 fences to be jumped and almost 4 miles to travel, the element of ‘lottery’ in the race, means that it would be hard to support any horse at a price close to even money.
Instead, I’d rather side with Auvergnat and Tea for Two…
The former finished fourth in last years race - but has taken his form to a new level this season.
That’s courtesy of an emphatic win in the Paddy Power, at Leopardstown, at Christmas.
Auvergnat was massively impressive that day, suggesting that he may still be improving.
It’s interesting that connections have resisted running him again since then - and he looks very much, the one that Tiger Roll has to beat…
That said, I also want to take a risk on Tea for Two.
He’s not been in great form this season - but he is a proven grade 1 performer and is still only 10.
He’s won an Aintree Bowl - and been placed in a King George - and horses with that level of ability don’t tend to run in cross country races.
However, he is being targeted at the Grand National and connections reasonably think this will give him valuable experience.
He should handle the ground - and cope with the distance, so if he does take to the obstacles, I can see him running a very big race.
A few of the others can also be given half chances - so whatever, I don’t think this will be a cake walk for Tiger Roll...

4:50

I did intend to get involved with this race - but the more I look at it, the more it appears a complete minefield !
Maybe that shouldn't be too surprising, with 22 unexposed juvenile hurdlers.
I honestly think I could make quite a compelling case for at least half of them - and that’s too many…
Got Trumped was the one I nearly tipped - but he has little in hand of La Sorelita (she has been a Mention in the past).
More than that, jockey bookings suggest that La Sorelita is the lesser fancied of Willie Mullins pair, behind Ceil De Neige. But as he is making his stable debut, a lot of guesswork is required…
That’s also the case for Fox Pro (who makes his debut for Jane Williams) and Naturelle (who makes his UK debut for his French trainer).
All 3 could be anything - but equally, would be impossible to support…
More conventional form study could lead you to one of Joseph O’Briens 3 runners - but it would be hard to choose between them: Similarly, Gordon Elliott runs 3 - but trying to figure out his number one, is no easy task…
Fanfare du Seuil is yet another one that needs adding to the mix - and I could still have missed the winner !
In short, the race is an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum - and in the circumstances, almost certainly best just watched !

5:30

After due consideration, I’ve decided to get involved with this race.
The issue I have, is that there is very little from to work with - so a lot of guesswork is required.
On the flip side, that means that the market could easily have got things wrong - so there could be some decent value available…
And I think that’s the case with Thyme Hill.
He’s run just twice in his life: winning at Worcester and the finishing runner up to Master Debonair in the listed bumper at the Cheltenham November meeting.
He ran really well that day, staying on strongly, having taken the (unfavourable) inside route, round the home turn.
It’s interesting that connections have saved him since then - and from a pure value perspective, it’s impossible to understand why he is twice the price of the horse who finished just a neck in front of him…
Ofcourse, there is a danger that the form of that race won’t be strong enough to win today - but that’s true for all of the runners…
Envoi Allen and Blue Sari represent Elliott and Mullins - and appear to be the pick of the Irish contingent.
However, there is no value in their respective prices…
That’s now also the case, for the Paul Nichols trained, Ask for Glory.
He held some appeal at a double figure price, on the back of a bloodless debut win at Chepstow - but at 7/1, there is no margin in his current price.
Sempo is the final one worthy of a mention, for Joseph O’Brien and Derek O Connor - and it would certainly be no surprise to see him run a big race…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Chel 1:30 Sams Profile 1pt win 11/1
Chel 2:10 The Worlds End 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 2:50 Killultagh Vic 0.5pt win 14/1
Chel 2:50 Brio Conti 0.5pt win 11/1
Chel 4:10 Tea for Two 0.5pt win 25/1
Chel 4:10 Auvergnat 0.5pt win 8/1
Chel 5:30 Thyme Hill 0.5pt win 22/1

Mentions

Chel 4:50 Got Trumped (O )

Review of the day

After 8 years previewing the festival (and considerably more just watching it !), it seems ridiculous that I can still be shocked, watching events unfold - but year after year, that remains the case…

The heavy rain introduced an element of lottery to the days proceedings - and boy did the gods of luck, revel in that !

Drama unfolded, race after race - with each subsequent race seemingly determined to upstage its predecessor…

Relatively, speaking things started quite calmly, with an easy win for Klassical Dancer in the Supreme.
I certainly could have given him a chance - but equally, couldn’t have backed him at 5/1.

However, he looked transformed by the softer ground - and was a very easy winner.

Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet ran excellent races to finish second and third for Olly Murphy.
I could have been interested in the latter - but he needs decent ground (which I wasn’t sure he was going to get).

Next up it was the Arkle - and the first tip of the day, in the shape of Kalashinkov.

I have to admit that I felt he had a real chance - and the early fall of Glen Forsa, plus Lalors lack of interest, left me feeling very optimistic.

Kalashnikov himself was jumping and travelling really well - when Ornua fell directly in front of him and brought him down.
It was so unlucky - the horse was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.

In fairness, Duc des Genevries subsequently went on and absolutely hacked up - but it’s hard to think that Kalashnikov wouldn’t have finished at least second - and with a bit of luck, who knows…

It can be a tough game at times…

Next it was the Ultima handicap - and why Minella Rocco took his chance, I’ve no idea…
He had drifted to 28 on BF at the off - never moved out of the last 3 - and was pulled up well before half way.

The word ‘disappointing’ doesn’t really do it justice !

The race was won by the 2 ‘mud larks’ who I identified this morning - with Beware the Bear getting the better of Vintage Cloud…

Next it was the big one - the Champion hurdle,

It had been billed as a 3 corner affair: between Buveur D’air, Apples Jade and Laurina - but that’s not how it panned out !

In a change of tactics, Melon raced prominently and never gave Apples Jade a moments peace.
It was soon clear that she wasn’t going to be winning.
Therefore, when Buveur D’air stepped at a hurdle along the back straight and came down, the race looked to be at Laurina's mercy.

However, she wasn’t up to the job - and instead it was the unheralded Espoir Dallen who took advantage and won in convincing fashion.

You can’t take anything away from him and time may show him to be a very good champion - however, he was left with literally nothing to beat this afternoon…

Next it was the mares hurdle - in which I felt Benie des Dieux was vulnerable.

Ultimately, I was proven right - but only because she took a fall at the last, when looking sure to win.

I tipped Momella in the race - but she ran disappointingly.
I could easily have tipped Roksana - but a price this morning of 7/1, was too short.
I may have been more tempted by her SP of 10/1 - but that’s immaterial…

The penultimate race of the days was the novice handicap chase.
I was quite keen on A Plus Tard, as I felt he might be a graded horse in a handicap.

That theory had been given more weight earlier in the afternoon, when Duc des Genievres won the Arkle - as A plus Tard had beaten him on his penultimate outing.

And sure enough, A Plus Tard was indeed a graded horse in a handicap - and probably a grade 1 horse !

Rarely will you see a handicap won more easily.
The winning distance at the line, was 16 lengths - but it could easily have been 30…

The NH chase was the final race of the day - and it ended up a complete war.

Horse after horse made mistakes and fell - or just ran out of steam.

Chef des Obeaux had already made one chunking mistake, when he was eventually stopped in his tracks, by the fall of one of his rivals.

18 horses set out - but just 4 made it home - with Le Breuil getting the better of a protracted struggle with Discorama.
You won’t see many more attritional contests….

As dramatic opening days go - today was certainly up there with the best of them !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 12th (Cheltenham Day 1)

Day 1 of the Cheltenham festival…

I think I’m getting old: it certainly doesn’t seem 12 months since the last one !
In fact, I’ve lost count of the number of festivals that I’ve now previewed (I think this is the eighth one - though I could be wrong).

There have been some great races during that time - and some great memories - and I’m sure this years festival won’t disappoint (it never does).

What might disappoint however, is the weather !

I said a few weeks back that what I hated most with this job, was rain (or the threat of rain), on a Friday evening.
I’d like to change that: what I actually hate most, is rain (or the threat of rain), on the Monday evening, before the Cheltenham festival starts !

Yet that is exactly what we got - and it’s the threat of significant rain (up to 15mm).

As things currently stand the ground looks a perfect mix of good to soft - soft in places, with a thick covering of grass.
However, what it will be like when this afternoons races are run, is anyones guess…

I suspect it will be soft - and that will put a very different slant on things.
It will also make it harder to figure out what will happen for the rest of the week - as the ground may dry out - or further rain may fall.

I guess nobody said it was easy…

We have 2 choices: either to take an educated guess on conditions: or accept we won’t know and give the racing a miss !
In truth, there isn’t really a choice…

That said, my tendency is to tread carefully - at least on day 1.

The racing is brilliant - but it would be very hard to assess, even if we knew how the ground was riding.
With that key piece of info missing (at least, when decisions on tips needed to be made), it makes sense to ease in gradually…

As you would expect, I’ve previewed all of the afternoons races - but I’ve not gone mad with the tips.
Hopefully we’ll have more clarity on conditions, as the week progresses…

Here are my thoughts on day 1.


Cheltenham

1:30

This is an absolute cracker to start the meeting with - though identifying the winner, certainly isn’t easy…
Of the 3 market leaders, I prefer the chances of Angel Breath to that of Al Dancer and Klassical Dream. The latter in particular, looks under-priced at 5/1 (he has nothing in hand of Aramon, on their meeting at the Dublin racing festival).
I’ve no major issue with Al Dancer - and I would expect him to run well - I just think he looks beatable and 5/1 is too short a price…
Arguably it is too short a price for Angel Breath - but he’s a horse with huge potential (and a reputation to match), so I think it’s harder to judge the ‘right’ price for him.
Whatever, I think he is just about the most likely winner…
That said, Fakir D’oudaries is a real danger - re-routed to this, from the Triumph hurdle.
He was really impressive when winning the juvenile race on trial day at the end of January - though how that form will translate in all age company, is anyones guess…
The race would be strong enough if just those 4 were running - but there are at least another half dozen, all of whom can be given a chance of sorts…
Both Aramon and Vision D’honneur, have form that gives them almost the same chance as Klassical Dream (and makes them better bets !).
I suspect both are unlikely winners - but either could be placed.
Grand Sancy, Mister Fisher, Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet, have all got form that links in with Elixir de Nutz.
He was withdrawn from the race yesterday evening - but looked to have a fair chance.
By definition, the 4 named, therefore can be given a chance (at least of placing) - though soft ground could be an issue for the last 3…
It’s not even possible to completely eliminated, Felix Desjy, Brandon Castle, The Big bite or Tokay Dokey - which shows just how open the race is !

If forced to select the most likely winner, I’d go with Angel Breath; whilst Al Dancer looks the one most likely to place.
There are plenty of each way, value options - and the ground is likely to have a big effect on which horses run well.
Assuming it is on the soft side, the Grand Sancy, could run in to a place at 14/1: whilst if the ground were to remain on the good side, Itchy Feet would be very interesting, at 33/1.

2:10

There could be some serious pace in this race, with Knocknanus and Ornua both habitual front runners: and Articulm, Clondaw Castle, Duc de Genieveres, Paloma Blue and Glen Forsa all having lead last time.
Clearly the race can’t be run to suit all 7 - so something will have to give.
I doubt it will be either Knocknanus or Ornua, so it’s to be hoped that the other 5 are happy to slot in !
I suspect that Duc de Genievres and Glen Forsa will do just that - but that means they won’t be able to duplicate the run style which has resulted in recent impressive wins.
We will find out this afternoon, whether they are adaptable, with regard to racing style…
Plenty of race pace, shouldn’t be an issue for Lalor, Hardline or Kalashnikov - and that makes them safer bets.
That said, soft ground won’t be ideal for Lalor: whilst Hardlines best form is arguably at half a mile further.
His stamina should be an asset this afternoon - but that is also the case for Kalashnikov.
In fact, Kalashnikov, has ticks in plenty of boxes…
He was just about the best of the runners over hurdles - with his second placing in last years Supreme novice hurdle, demonstrating an aptitude for the course.
He will have no issue, with softening ground - in fact, his best form has been shown under testing conditions.
At 6, he’s the youngest runner in the field - but his 4 runs over fences mean that he’s not short in fencing experience.
The only real blip in his credentials, is his last time out defeat to Glen Forsa at Sandown.
He was sent off a very short priced favourite that day, but Glen Forsa destroyed him, with quick accurate jumping.
However, Sandown is a very different track to Cheltenham (sharper and right handed) - and allowed to get into a rhythm, there must be a chance that the form flatters Glen Forsa (and shows Kalashnikov in a poor light).
Certainly, I’m prepared to ignore it - and without that run is his record, Kalashnikov would be close to favourite for this…
Jack Quilan will need to make sure he keeps involved - and to achieve that the horse will need to jump well.
However, if that happens, then I think he has every chance of winning.
Certainly I think that odds of around 9/1 under-estimates his chance.

2:50

I am fearful that the conditions will mess things up for Minella Rocco In this…
I took a chance on him, last week - when the ground was forecast as ‘good to soft’ - and on that ground, I’d be very keen on him.
However, he really doesn’t want it soft - never mind heavy - so if it does rain all morning, I doubt he will feature…
And that’s a shame, because I could construct a very strong case for him !
On his 2 previous runs at the festival, he’s won the 4 miler (beating subsequent Gold Cup winner, Native River) - and finished runner up in the Gold Cup (to Sizing John).
Those 2 runs, suggest he is capable of running to a mark of around 170 - yet today, he runs off a mark of just 152 !
That’ s because he has disappointed a few times since his Gold Cup run - though I think there were good reasons for most of those poor runs.
His most recent effort over hurdles at Exeter, suggested that the ability still remains - and I suspect that Jonjo will have him spot on for today (it’s a race he has won 3 rimes, in the past 10 years).
If the sun was shining, then I don’t think we would need look anywhere else for the race winner - but with storm clouds above, we might…
The trouble is, take him out of the race and it looks a lot harder to call…
I considered a saver on last years winner, Coo Star Sivola - but there is no margin in a price of 10/1 for a horse who ran very poorly last time.
Noble Endeavour is another one I considered getting on side - but even more guesswork is required with him, as he’s only run once in the past 2 years…
Both have a chance - but so do Up for Review, Give me a Copper and Mister Whitaker - and that’s just from the top of the market.
There is also the question mark over ground conditions - as very soft would greatly help the chance of Beware the Bear and Vintage Clouds…
On balance, I decided that it didn’t make sense to get involved further with the race.
If somehow, the rain stays away, then I think we are on the right horse: if it pours down, then we probably aren’t - but it’s not easy to decide which the right one is !

3:30

It seems crazy to see dual Champion hurdler, Buveur D’air as big as 11/4 for this…
It’s not as if he’s done much wrong this season: an imperious win on his seasonal debut, when he looked better than ever, was admittedly followed by a disappointing defeat in the Christmas hurdle. However, on ground too quick - and a track to sharp - that is relatively easy to forgive.
His last time win, at Sandown suggested he was just as good as ever - and under ideal conditions today, he is going to take the world of beating…
The trouble for him is that he is opposed by 2 high class mares - and he has to give them both 7lb.
The question is whether he will be up to the job…?
No one knows for sure - but I do think that it’s very much in his favour, that 2 miles is his trip, whereas both Apples Jade and Laurina, would both prefer further…
As is so often the case in tight races, jockeyship could well be key.
Jack Kennedy is likely to try to make all on Apples Jade - with Barry and Ruby tracking him, on Buveur D’air and Laurina, respectively…
I’ll be a little surprised if Luarina is good enough (though in truth, we don’t know where the ceiling of her ability lies); however, I’ll be far less surprised, if Buveur D’air proves to be Apples Jades master…
I can see Barry tracking her until after the last - and then powering past on the run in.
It could be argued that 11/4 is a price worth getting involved with - and I certainly wouldn’t dissuade anyone who wanted an interest.
However, this strikes me as an exceptional horse race - which I’ll be more than happy, just to watch unfold, without financial interest…

4:10

If she weren’t being touted as Willie Mullins best chance of the week, I wonder what price Benie des Dieux would be in this…
It’s true that she won the corresponding race last season: but Apples Jade ran well below her best, so she only beat the 145 rated (and fully exposed) Midnight Tour, by half a length.
That form gives her a chance today - but it certainly doesn’t make her an even money shot…
Obviously you have to respect what Willie and Ruby say - but at the odds, she really should be taken on…
I’m not that keen on her stable-mates either: with both Limini and Stormy Island looking beatable.
The suggestion is therefore, that there could be some serious value in the race - and maybe I should have had more of a crack at it.
The trouble is, even eliminating the Mullins trio, it still looks a tough race to call…
Roksana is the obvious one - particularly as Dan Skelton seems to have teed her up for the race.
However, she has plenty on, ratings-wise - and 7/1 is a tight enough price.
Lady Buttons has a better chance, based on ratings - but she struggled to win last time and I wonder if she’s had enough for the season.
Momella appears to be a better bet - and I think she is worth having on side.
She has good course form, will be suited by the 2m4f trip - and will relish soft ground (assuming that’s what we get !).
She will be having just her third run for Harry Fry this afternoon - having disappointed on her first 2.
however, her form from last season, shows that she is capable of operating at this level - and there is a possibility that she may have improved...
The obvious play is each way - but I’m happy to go win only, with Benie looking vulnerable - and Momella herself, lacking consistency.
The final one of interest in the race, is Jester Jet.
She’s another who should relish conditions - and it’s hard to see her not running her race.
I think she looks less likely than Momella to win - but more likely to place.
She could be worth a small EW saver…

4:50

With 20 relatively unexposed runners, this looks very tough race to call.
In truth, a case could be made for most of the runners - but I do quite like the claims of A Plus Tard.
I’m obliviously not the only one, as he was installed early favourite - but in a race like this, most of the runners will get backed, so I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go off a decent price (at least 7/1).
He’s actually the youngest runner in the race, at just 5 - but he has plenty of experience, having run 5 times in his native France, before moving to Ireland.
He’s run 3 times for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland - and shaped with real promise on each occasion.
He finished runner up on his debut in a decent beginners chase at Gowran in November; and followed that up by taking a similar race at Naas, in December.
The form of that run now looks particularly strong, as he beat Duc de Genievres - and that one is third favourite for todays Arkle.
A Plus Tards most recent run, was when runner up to Winter Escape in a grade 3 at Punchestown in January.
To be honest, I’m a little surprised that he’s been given a rating, low enough to enable him to get into todays race - as it strikes me that he’s really a graded performer.
In truth, he may need to be just that, in order to win, as it’s s strong field - and a few of the other runners could also have plenty in hand of their mark.
That said, I suspect most of the main dangers will be Irish trained - as I can’t see a UK trained horse with the same potential as A Plus Tard.
Good Man Pat looks like the best of the UK runners to me - but I’m not sure he will relish soft ground.
Such conditions will hold no fears for Springtown Boy or Highway One o One - but they don’t strike me as being massively ahead of their marks…
The Irish runners are far more difficult to assess.
Tower Bridge looks to have been laid out for the race - though his stable/owner companion Shady Operator, also looks interesting.
Riders onthe Storm, has a similar profile to A Plus Tard (without looking quite as good !); whilst Ben Dundee, is one who I could see running well, at a price.
It’s certainly not a race where you can be dogmatic.
However, A Plus Tard has a near flawless profile - and massive scope.
He’s a deserving favourite - and I hope he can come home in front.

5:30

If the rain does materialise in the expected quantities, then this could end up a war…
That’s not going to suit OK Corral - who is probably the best horse in the race.
He’s also got the best jockey in the race (Derek O Connor) - and is owned by JP Mcmanus, who is particularly keen to win the race.
He is not taken on lightly - but his stablemate, Chef des Obeaux, could be worth a small play against him.
Unlike OK Corral, Chef des Obeaux will relish any rain - and whilst he’s not yet shown himself as good as OK Corral over fences, he was of a similar ability of hurdles.
In fact, when the 2 of them contested last seasons Albert Bartlett, Chef des Obeaux was sent off a 6/1 shot - with OK Corral at 16/1.
Chef des Obeaux didn’t get home that day - and also finished behind OK Corral at Aintree, but he was only 6 at the time, so maybe it was all a bit much for him…
He’s run 3 times over fences this season - and whilst he’s not yet set the world alight, there has been steady improvement.
A debut third at Uttoxeter, was followed by an unseat when still in contention at Chepstow - and then a hard fought win at the same course, 3 weeks ago.
That last run showed that Chef des Obeauxs strength is his stamina - and I can see that coming in very handy today !
In truth, this is not a race where you could feel overly confident about any of the runners,
With the doubts over OK Corral, Ballyward and Discorama look like the 2 to beat - but they hardly set an insurmountable standard.
Atalanta Ablaze is theoretically interesting, with her mares allowance; whilst I could see Whisperinthebreeze running very well for a chunk of the race - but then not quite getting home…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.






Tips

Chel 2:10 Kalashnikov 1pt win 9/1
Chel 2:50 Minella Rocco 1pt win 9/1
Chel 4:10 Momella 0.5pt win 20/1
Chel 4:50 A Plus Tard 1pt win 7/1
Chel 5:30 Chef des Obeaux 0.5pt win 20/1

Mentions

Chel 1:30 Angel Breath (O )
Chel 3:30 Buveur D’Air (O )

Dobbers

Chel 5:30 Whisperinthebreeze