Daily write-up - Jan 12th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

The ongoing lack of rain (they actually watered the track at Kempton during the week - in January - can you believe that ?!) has resulted in a few small fields - but generally, it’s decent racing.

Certainly, there are a number of races of interest on the feature cards at Kempton and Warwick - whilst both Wetherby and Fairyhouse stage at least one decent contest apiece.

Certainly, I had no trouble finding horses I fancied - though the ongoing issue of finding decent bets, continues !

Take Lord Napier as an example…

I ‘found’ him on Thursday afternoon, at which point he was a general 8/1 shot (which was shorter than I expected).

However, he was then supported all day Friday - and by this morning, the best price was 9/2 !

In a 14 runner handicap - that’s just too short…

I guess he may drift - but then I have the dilemma over whether to tip a drifter.

Ofcourse there is no easy answer.

I could have tipped him on Friday (or even Thursday !) and some of you would have got a decent price - but some of you wouldn’t have been able to back him, and you would have found that understandably annoying.

The other option is to wait until later this morning - but then there is the danger that I will run out of time to produce the write-up - and I know that plenty of you value that as highly as the tips (if not more so, because it’s easier to back the positive mentions).

It’s all very frustrating, as I end up spending a lot of time finding horses which I can’t subsequently tip !

Anyway, there were ultimately 5 horse which I felt had winning chances - which were available at reasonable prices - and they have ended up as the days tips.

Here’s the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on some of the races where I wasn’t able to tip !

Kempton

1:30

I tipped Mercian Prince when he won this corresponding race 12 months ago, and I think he’s worthy of support again today…

He’s a thoroughly consistent sort - and whilst he has to race off a mark 5lb higher today, than 12 months ago, he won his next race off a mark 2lb higher again, so he’s is still well handicapped…

His 4 subsequent defeats can all be excused for one reason or another:

The first was at the Cheltenham festival; whilst the second was also in a class 1 race - at the Ayr grand national meeting.

He ran pretty well in that contest - and it was a similar story on his seasonal return at Aintree.

His most disappointing run was his last one - but that was over the bare 2 miles at Ludlow and he’s a 2m4f horse.

It was also his first run after a wind op, and horses often perform best on their second run after such surgery…

The bottom line is, I would expect him to run his race - and that’s not the case will all 3 of his rivals.

Casse Tete almost certainly wants softer ground - and I would expect to see Jamie Moore riding, if he was really fancied; Poker School ran a reasonable race last weekend - but looks in the grip of the handicapper: Whilst it’s a similar story with Amour de Nuit, who also has little in hand of his mark.

It’s a tight race - but Mercian Prince is proven over course and distance and in the conditions - and I’m hopeful that will give him an edge over his rivals.

2:05

On official ratings, all 5 runners in this have a chance - but I expect the finish to be fought out by the market leaders, Charbel and Top Notch.

Both are very good horses - who, though maybe not quite capable of winning at the very highest level, are capable of placing.

That’s not the case with the other 3 runners and I’ll be a little surprised if that class edge, doesn’t prove decisive…

In terms of which one of the big 2 is likely to come out on top, then that’s a little harder to call…

I would expect Speredek to make the running - and for Charbel to track him.

Charbel is likely to attack early in the home straight and then try to fend off Top Notch.

Jockeyship and jumping over the final 3 fences, is likely to prove crucial.

If forced, I would side with Charbel to come out on top - but it’s really just a race to watch…

2:40

As I mentioned in the introduction, I was keen on Lord Napier in this - but his price has gone too short…

It is now drifting - he’s 7/1 on BF, which is acceptable - but no more than 11/2 with the bookmakers - which isn’t !

There really is nothing I can do about it (officially speaking !).
I’m loathed to tip early - but the bookmakers are very slow at pushing out the prices of horses that have been backed.

I suspect you will be able to get 7/1 quite easily, if you wait.
I wouldn’t be too surprised to see 8/1 or bigger.
In truth, that’s the price he should be - as whilst I think he as a good chance, it is a very competitive race in which a case can be made for at least half a dozen.

Frustrating !

3:15

The market looks to have got this one about right…

The most likely winners are Barney Dwan, Glen Rocco and Ballykan - and they occupy the top 3 places in the betting.

There are pros and cons associated with each, so choosing between them isn’t easy.

Of the 3, I marginally prefer the chances of Barney Dwan.

He’s not really delivered so far over fences - but he’s well handicapped and should be suited by todays test.
He’s also sporting first time cheek piece - and if they do perk him up, he could prove hard to beat…

Glen Rocco is stepping up in trip having stayed on strongly last time in a hot race over half a mile less.
He’s an inexperienced novice and his jumping is a slight concern - but if he gets round OK, he should run well.

Ballykan is arguable the most solid of the 3 - and he has a very good record at Kempton. He also has a marked preference for decent ground.
I would expect him to run his race - it’s just whether one of the other 2 are a bit too good for him.

Barney Dwan is drifting as I type this - and at 4/1 would be tempting.

However, 3/1 is the general price - and that’s a bit too short.

Warwick

1:15

I think it is worth taking a chance on Rock on Rocky in this…

It would appear that he’s been in poor form this season - but I think appearances could be deceptive !

Certainly, I felt he ran well enough at Ascot on his first chase outing of the season - and again at Cheltenham on his subsequent outing.

That said, he didn’t look like a winner waiting to happen, so it’s maybe not too surprising that his connections took action to ensure his handicap mark dropped a bit further !

He was held up out the back on his next run at Newbury (not his style of racing); and then set a strong pace last time, over a trip that was too far.

Unsurprisingly, he finished well beaten in both of those contests - but as a consequence, his handicap mark has dropped significantly.

He races today off a mark of 123 - which is 12lb lower than the mark he raced off at Ascot.

He can win off that mark - as he proved last season when successful at Newbury: in fact, he can win off quite a bit higher…

Whether he will win today, is a different matter.

The fact he has shown so little on his 2 most recent runs, means that I am guessing with regards to what’s going on.

However, this is a winnable race.

Movie Legend sets the standard - but it’s not overly high.

There is a chance that we will be on Rock on Rocky, a race too soon - but in a relatively weak contest, I felt he was worth a small risk at a decent price.

1:50

This looks far more open to me, than the early betting suggests…

Rockys Treasure has been put in a short priced favourite: but that’s because he’s been running very well recently - including when making Santini work hard for victory at Newbury.
Those kind of form lines are always attractive to people - so I wasn’t surprised to see him put in a short priced favourite.

And he may be able to justify market confidence - but he has little in hand of his rivals on official ratings - and there is a chance that he’s going to the well once too often, today…

Second favourite, OK Corral, owes his position in the market to his connections.
He’s trained by Nicky Henderson - but even more significant, Derek O Connor has flown over to ride him (in order to gain familiarity with the horse, prior to tackling the 4 miler at Cheltenham).

In the circumstances, he was always going to be a shorter price than his form warrants.

As a consequence the 2 to focus on from a ‘value’ perspective are Secret Investor and White Moon.

I quite like them both - but have a slight preference for the first named.

He’s only run once over fences - and shaped with a great deal of promise, when runner up to the street-wise Bags Groove, at Wincanton.
I would expect Secret Investor to improve on that run - and if he does, then he will go very close in this.

His lack of experience is a slight worry - as Warwick isn’t an easy course to jump round.

On the flip side, he has a good jockey on board and the small field will also help.

2:25

The defection of Birchdale has taken away any betting angles from this…

He had been installed a very short priced favourite - and I might have been tempted to take him on.

However, with him out, Tidal Flow looks a more solid favourite - and I’m disinclined to take him on.

That doesn’t mean he will win - but there is nothing in the field which I feel sufficiently strongly about, to warrant taking a risk.

Rockpoint looks a touch over-priced at 9/1 - but he does have to concede a penalty to the other runners.

I would expect him to run well - though I suspect that Tidal Flow will win…

3:00

I’m pretty keen on Impulsive Star in this - just a bit irritated that so many others have picked up on him !

I was kind of hoping that his most recent run at Plumpton would have put people off.

That was his seasonal debut - and he wasn’t at all impressive in finishing second in a 4 horse race (where only 3 finished).
however, I expect him to leave that run behind today…

For a start, he is likely to have come on for the outing - but additionally, cheek pieces have been reapplied.

That looks a key move, as he wore them last season, when finishing fourth in the 4 mile chase at the Cheltenham festival.

That was a massive run - he finished just behind Sizing Tennessee - and that one subsequently won the Ladbroke trophy and is now rated 163.

Impulsive Star on the other hand is rated 133 - and I’m absolutely sure he can win off that mark.

In fact, he hacked up over hurdles, off a mark jut 3lb lower, before being sent off favourite for the 2017 Pertemps final at the Cheltenham festival.

There is no doubt he is potentially well handicapped - and I think that today's 3m5f test should suit him perfectly.

There is likely to be plenty of pace in the race as the likes of Step Back, Cogry and Milansbar, all like to front run.

That will hopefully stretch the field out - and provided Sam Waley Cohen can get a good pitch and the horse jumps well, then I real think he will take a lot of beating.

In terms of dangers: then his stablemate, Caroles Destier is one - assuming he has fully recovered from his recent win: Whilst Duel at Dawn is another - and Step Back a third (if he can navigate a path through the potential front running issue).
That said, I don’t think any of them have as good a chance as Impulsive Star.

It’s fair to say, I’m pretty hopeful !

3:35

When I first looked at this race, I was very keen on First Assignment - but I’ve cooled on him…

He certainly has an attractive profile - as an improving hurdler, with good recent form.
He’s also up against generally more exposed horses - which added to his appeal.
The issue, is the race itself.

It’s a qualifier for the Pertemps series, the final of which is run at the Cheltenham festival.

All of the horses that finish in the top 6 in todays race, will qualify for the final - and I’m fearful that is what First Assignments connections will be targeting…
He is already rated high enough to run in the final - so winning today will actually lessen his chances of victory in March.

I’m not overly keen on siding with a horse who has a good reason not to win !

Ofcourse, connections might be happy to just take todays £15K first prize - but I’m not sure that will be the case…

If he’s not going to win, then it’s a hard race to fathom.
Blacklion certainly has a good chance based on his chase rating: whilst Lungaron Palace has a chance based on recent form - and could do with winning to get his rating high enough to make the final.

Races are hard enough to solve when you are playing with a straight bat - and I’m not convinced this is a race that can be played with a straight bat !

As a consequence, I’ll just be watching…

Fairyhouse

1:00

I tipped Lever du Soleil the last time he ran - and I think he is worth siding with again today.

He is an exuberant front runner and he disappointed me a little last time, as I expect him to go very close.

However, he wasn’t given his head by his jockey and found himself a sitting duck at the end of the race.

Ger Fox is back on board today and hopefully he will ride the horse more aggressively.

If he does, then I think his rivals will find him a tough one to pass.
Certainly his chance has improved this morning, with the defection of Havingagoodtime.

That one looked like a possible pace rival - so her absence has to improve the chances of Lever du Soleil.
Even from just a pure form perspective (so ignoring the possible tactical advantage), he has a decent chance.

He would probably have gone very close in the race that Get Trumped won; whilst Chief Justice and Coeur Sublime, the 2 horses that beat him last time, ran well in the big juvenile hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.

There is a danger that one of the less exposed horses in todays race will take a a big step forward - but the market has factored that in.
Lever du Soleil on the other hand has been under-estimated - and for that reason, warrants support.

2:10

Just a few quick words on this race - as it is part of the Scoop 6 (which Craig is covering in the forum).

I liked the look of Blazer best - but he is risky and has been backed in to favouritism.

Kildorrery was the other one of interest - but again he has been well supported, so there is no value in the price.
That said, they would be my choices if I was trying to find the winner of the race !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB

Tips

Kemp 1:30 Mercian Prince 1pt win 11/4

Warw 1:15 Rock on Rocky 0.5pt win 10/1

Warw 1:50 Secret Investor 1pt win 11/2

Warw 3:00 Impulsive Star 1.5pt win 15/2

Fair 1:00 Lever du Soleil 0.5pt win 10/1

Mentions

Kemp 2:05 Charbel (O )

Kemp 2:40 Lord Napier (P )

Kemp 3:15 Barney Dwan (O )

Warw 2:25 Rockpoint EW

Warw 3:35 First Assignment (C )

Fairy 2:10 Blazer (P )