Daily write-up - Jan 19th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

I’ve said it a few times before, but the one thing I really hate as a tipster, is the threat of overnight rain (or snow !) on a Friday evening…

We’ve been quite lucky in that respect, so far this season.

I can’t recall many Friday evenings when I’ve been wondering how the ground will ride the following day (generally, it’s been on the quick side !) - and I suspect that has been a big factor in this seasons strong performance.

However, today (or more accurately, last night), things are different…

I spent a few hours yesterday evening, studying the form, with little idea of what the ground would actually be like, when it mattered (ie. when the races are run).

That makes things nearly impossible.

The state of the ground is a massive factor in deciding the outcome of a race - so you really need to know it (or at least have a good idea), to stand much of a chance.

However, that wasn’t the case yesterday evening, with the ground at both Taunton and Haydock described as ‘good to soft’ - but with a lot of rain/snow threatening to fall.

Consequently, it was this morning before I could assess conditions - and begin to decide on the days tips.

And even then, I did so with a degree of trepidation, as I’m trying to figure out what the weather has done overnight - and also what is likely to happen prior to race times…

Maybe it’s therefore not too surprising, that we’ve ended up a bit light on tips today, with 4 of them.

The racing just feels too trappy, to really launch in to things.

We’re in a good position his season, because of selectivity - and I'm sure there will be plenty more good days before the season is over…

Here is the rationale behind the days tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races at Ascot and Haydock.

Ascot

1:15

I tipped Rock on Rocky, just last Saturday, when he finished fourth at Warwick…

He was a slightly speculative tip that day - and whilst the ran well enough, my feeling was that we got on him a run too early.

Post race, I said that he would win next time - ‘mark my words’.

Well, I guess we’ll find out this afternoon, whether my words warrant marking..!

In truth, I’m not feeling quite as bullish about his chances as I expected - but that’s mainly because I wasn’t expecting to him be reappearing quite so soon !

His trainer, Matt Sheppard, has sent out nearly 80 losers, since his last winner.

I expect that situation will change quite soon - but I would really like to see evidence that it has happened, before I get too heavily involved with one of his horses…

Despite that however, I’ve still decided to take a small risk on Rocky…

The bottom line is, the horse is ridiculously well handicapped - and I don’t think he’s in bad form (he would have gone much closer to winning last weekend, if he’d not demolished the fourth fence).

Rocky has won in the past, on the back of a quick return to the track - so he appears to have the constitution to take a couple of quick races: he also ran one of his best races over todays course and distance, just over a year ago (I tipped him that day as well !) - when narrowly failing to beat Mr Medic.

That one is now rated 17lb higher - whilst Rocky runs today, off a mark 1lb lower…

Today's race is of a reasonable standard - and all of the runners can be given a chance of sorts.

However, I’ve little doubt that at his best, Rocky could win - let’s hope he’s performs close to that level this afternoon…

1:50

Magic of Light has been installed favourite for this on the back of her impressive win at Newbury, last time…

It’s unusual for Jessie Harrington to send one over for a race of this nature - so her chance has to be respected.
However, she runs over hurdles today - and all of her best form is over fences.

She may prove to be just as good over the smaller obstacles - but there is nothing in her price, to justify taking a risk to find out…

With Jester Jet having to concede weight to her rivals - and also likely to find the ground a bit quick; If You Say Run and Culture de Sivola look the 2 to concentrate on.
To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice with them.

They are closely linked on form - and available at the same price (10/3).

If forced, I’d side with If You Say Run - but with everything so tight, there is no margin to warrant getting involved…

2:25

The presence of Thosedaysaregone, makes this a hard race to get involved with…

Charles Byrnes sent him over to Wetherby last weekend - and he dotted up in a handicap there, having been backed as if defeat was out of the question…

Todays race is much stronger - and he has to run off a mark 9lb higher - but it’s quite possible he could still be up to the job.

Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers were very defensive with their early prices - and he was installed at just 2/1.

He’s out to 5/1 now - but that was almost inevitable.

The key thing will be what happens to his price, close to the off - but we’ve no idea on that…

Ignoring him - this is still a tough race to fathom.

Seddon looks very interesting on his handicap debut, stepping up in trip - but he now heads the market.

The third favourite is Ballymoy - and he was impressive last time, when winning at Haydock.

That said, he might struggle to confirm the form of that race, with Better Getaling, who was making his seasonal debut and is 5lb better off this afternoon.

He’s also Brian Hughes’ only ride on the day - which strikes me as significant…

Even outside the 4 mentioned, there are others of interest, in the shape of Colonial Dreams and New Quay…

In short, this just looks too tough a race to get involved in - particularly bearing in mind the big unknown concerning Thosedaysaregone…

3:00

This is yet another race on the Ascot card, where I’m struggling to see an angle…

I like Benatar best - and thought he ran very well last time, when the 3 mile trip probably stretched him.

He drops 3 furlongs today - and I think that’s a positive move.

Instinctively, I feel that his current mark of 149 under-estimates his ability - but he does need to start delivering…

He may well do so today - but at 5/1, he’s short enough, in what appears to be a very warm contest…

Certainly, Venetias Belami Des Pictons, looks a very big danger.
He’s making his seasonal debut - but I doubt very much that he will want for fitness, and his mark of 146 could under-estimate him.

However, like Benatar, he is plenty short enough in the market, at 5/1…

Mr Medic and Happy Diva are two others that interest me - though they too, looked priced about right.

Whilst Flying Angel and Quite by Chance are outsiders who I could give half chances to - though both have fair sized question marks over them…

Instinctively, I feel that the race is most likely to go to one of the two at the head of the market - but I would struggle to choose between them and at 5/1 the pair there is little incentive to do so.

3:35

Numerically, there is a very disappointing turn out for the big race on the card - with just 3 runners.

However, with Altior one of the 3, it’s maybe not too surprising…

He is currently head and shoulders above all of his contemporaries - so it’s perhaps  inevitable that the opposition has been frightened off.

It’s a little disappointing that a few more didn’t choose to at least have a go.

Fourth place prize money was £8K - which is more than you get for winning many races !

That said, whoever had run, the result would likely have been the same.
Barring accidents, Altior will win - and probably with plenty to spare…

Haydock

2:05

Mr Fisher has been installed a short priced favourite for this - but I instinctively want to take him on…

In fairness, he won a strong race at Kempton over Christmas - but everything seemed to drop in his favour, that day.

He was receiving weight from all of his rivals - and seemed well suited to the speed test, that Kempton provides.

Things will be very different for him today…

For a start, he has to give weight to his rivals - and whilst the ground at Haydock may not be bottomless, it’s likely to be more holding than it was at Kempton.
He also needs to prove his ability to act on a left hand course.

In short, there are sufficient question marks to warrant taking him on, at a price of even money.

The question, was which one to oppose him with…

Bright Forecast is the obvious one - but he’s only a 5/2 shot and I’m more inclined to take a risk on one of the less exposed runners…

It therefore became a choice between Esprit du Large, Idee de Garde and Muratallo - and I opted for the last named...

He is totally unexposed - having only run twice in his native France, and never having  officially run in this country.

He actually has run in the UK - but he ran in a race which was abandoned, with 2 flights to go (due to an injured horse).

At the point when the race was stopped, Muratallo was in second place - and still stood a chance of winning.

If he had won that race, I doubt he would have been a 16/1 shot today…

Muratallo is owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede and they have plenty of very nice horses.

I therefore find it interesting that they are pitching him in to graded company, so early in his career.

Of course, he may not be up to the job - but with a suspect favourite and the other runners having almost as much to prove, I think it is worth a small risk to find out…

2:40

This is a very tight race - and whilst I can’t argue with Silver Streak being favourite, he’s hardly bomb proof…

Certainly, his preference for quick ground might catch him out - depending on how Haydock rides this afternoon.

The trouble is, nothing stands out to take him on with…

Western Ryder has just about the strongest credentials - but he’s not a horse that I particularly like.

Mohaayed can be given a good chance on official ratings - but he will find todays 5 runner race very different to the big handicaps which he’s won recently…

If forced to get involved, I’d probably side with Global Citizen.

I originally thought that he wanted decent ground and a right hand track - but his win at Newbury seemed to disprove that (and his subsequent disappointing run at Kempton, seemed to contradict it completely !).

I guess that’s my main issue with him - I think he probably has the ability to win a race such as this - but ‘m not absolutely sure !

In the circumstances, 4/1 just seems to be about the right price…

3:15

I think the state of the ground will have a big impact on the result of this race - I just wish I felt confident of predicting what that will be !

If it is very holding (so soft/heavy), then I Otago Trail and Dakondike are probably the 2 to concentrate on. However, I’m hoping that won’t be the case.

I suspect the ground will be riding slower than the official description of ‘good to soft’ suggests - but not much worse than soft…

If that is the case, then I think Wakanda has a very good chance.

In truth, he hasn’t got the same ground dependence as a few of his rivals - so should be able to run his race regardless. The trouble is, on extremes of ground, specialists tend to come to the fore…

Wakanda has ticks in a lot of boxes this afternoon.

He’s running off a mark just 1lb higher than he ran from, when winning the Sky Bet chase at Doncaster, last January.

He showed tremendous guts to get up that day - and his attitude will always stand him in good stead.

He’s not featured in his 4 runs since that win, but there have been valid reasons for that.
His 2 other outings last season, were in big handicaps at the spring festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree; whilst he made his seasonal debut in December, over hurdles at Wetherby.

I think that run was designed to get him spot on for the Rowland Merrick chase at the same course on Boxing day - but he chased too fast a pace that day and didn’t  get home.

Hopefully, Danny Cook will get his fractions right this afternoon - as if he does, I think the horse should go very close.

Assuming it’s not heavy ground, then Captain Redbeard looks the biggest danger - but he is not as well handicapped as Wakanda - and is also a slightly shorter price !

3:45

I’m hoping that Sue Smith and Danny Cook have a good afternoon at Haydock !

Not only do they have Wakanda in the big race on the card - they are also responsible for Vendor in this…

He’s a horse who has a long history with TVB - and he caught my eye on his penultimate run over todays course and distance, on the Saturday before Christmas.

He finished fourth that day, in a similar race todays, staying on well in the closing stages.

That was his third run back after a long absence and it looked to me as if he’d be ready to put in a very big run next time.

What I didn’t expect however, was that next time would be just 4 days later - and over a trip which is arguably too far for him…

I’ve no idea what was going on there - maybe his connections wanted a runner at Wetherby on Boxing day - I really don’t know.
All I do know is that the run should probably be ignored - and we should focus on the Haydock effort.

Based on that run, then he has a very good chance this afternoon - as his mark has dropped a further 4lb.

There can be little doubt that provided he retains sufficient of his old ability, he is handicapped to win.
As with Wakanda, he has no strong ground preference - and that is unlike at least a couple of his rivals.

I would therefore expect him to run a big race - and if he is able to bring up a double for Danny and Sue, then I suspect we will all be smiling !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Asc 1:15 Rock on Rocky 0.5pt win 10/1
Hayd 2:05 Muratello 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 3:15 Wakanda 1pt win 8/1
Hayd 3:45 Vendor 1pt win 7/1

Mentions

Asc 1:50 If you say Run (O )

Asc 2:25 Better Getalong (O )

Asc 3:00 Benatar (P )

Hayd 2:40 Global Citizen (O )