There
are 4 NH meetings today (not 3, as I said earlier in the week !): at Sandown,
Wincanton and Newcastle in the UK - plus Cork in Ireland.
Realistically
however, it’s
only Sandown and Wincanton that are of interest - and neither of them hosts
particularly inspiring cards.
Ofcourse,
it’s understandable, as most of the best horses ran over the Christmas period,
so it makes sense that the first couple of weeks the new year, will be
relatively quite.
And
that’s certainly the case today: the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle at Sandown, is the
feature race - but it’s a 6 runner novice hurdle; with the veterans series
final, the main supporting event.
Aside
from that, there are half a dozen very tight handicaps in which most of the
runners can be given a chance - and it’s not easy to find an angle.
As
a consequence things are a bit light, tipping-wise - and I’ve ended up with just
3 on the day.
Here’s
the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other main
races…
Sandown
1:20
I
think Western Miller is worth supporting in this…
He
caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, when he moved nicely in the
lead, before tiring up the home straight.
I expected him to build on that next time at Taunton - and put him up as a selection on the mid week blog.
I expected him to build on that next time at Taunton - and put him up as a selection on the mid week blog.
However,
he ran disappointingly that day - and I’m not completely sure why.
He
was taken on for the lead - and Taunton is a relatively sharp track - so maybe
things just conspired against him.
He will need to bounce back from that run - but the handicapper has dropped him 4lb on the back of it, so that will help !
He will need to bounce back from that run - but the handicapper has dropped him 4lb on the back of it, so that will help !
As
a consequence, he now gets to run from a mark of 129 - and that makes him look
potentially very well handicapped.
He
was beaten just a neck over todays course and distance last November, when
running from a mark 4lb higher.
He
was also beaten in his 3 others runs last season; but 1 was at the Cheltenham
festival - and the other 2 were decent novice chases.
In
short, there have been reasons for all of his defeats, apart from the one at
Taunton.
I’m
hopeful that he will get an uncontested lead this afternoon - and if he does,
then over a track where he has already performed well, he should take a bit of
pegging back.
Larry
and Darius des Bois look the 2 biggest dangers.
Both
are unexposed novices, who could have plenty of scope for
improvement.
On
the flip side, Sandown presents a stiff jumping challenge, so their lack of
jumping experience could easily catch them out…
1:50
She’s
obviously not a betting proposition, but it will be fascinating to see how
Laurina gets on in this…
She
was a massively impressive winner of the mares novice race at last season’s
Cheltenham festival and followed that up by winning the grade 1 mares event at
the Fairyhouse spring festival.
The
form of neither race amounted to much - but it was the manner in which she won,
that made you think she could be something special...
She
is currently second favourite for the Champion hurdle - and neither of todays 2
rivals should really test her.
The
expectation is that she will win - and win comfortably - though, even then, we
are unlikely to learn much new.
Still,
at least we will know that all is well with her - and that Buveur Dair might
have a realistic challenger for his title…
2:25
I
think it is worth taking a chance on Mercy Mercy Me in this…
He
was a very decent bumper horse last season: finishing 8th
in the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival, before disappointing in the
Aintree equivalent (where he was sent off at just 4/1).
He’s
only run twice over hurdles this season - and has been beaten on both occasions
but there are reasons for thinking he could fare better today.
Both
of his hurdle races have been run on heavy ground - and that seems not to suit
him.
His
debut effort was also over 2m4f, which appeared to stretch his
stmaina.
Back
over the minimum trip today - and on decent ground - I would expect him to put
in a much improved showing.
Of
course, even if he does, then he’s not guaranteed to win…
Elixir
de Nutz, sets a decent standard - and the form of his last time out defeat of
Jarveys Plate was stamped by the runner up in no uncertain terms, on New Years
day.
Elixir
isn’t even the favourite for todays race.
That
honour goes to Rathill - though it’s based mainly on reputation rather than
achievement on the track.
In fairness he was impressive when winning his sole hurdle race at Newbury last month - but he will need to step up significantly on that run, if he is to take this grade 1 contest.
In fairness he was impressive when winning his sole hurdle race at Newbury last month - but he will need to step up significantly on that run, if he is to take this grade 1 contest.
The
expectation is that he will do just that - but a price of even money , barely
recognises the possibility that he won’t…
Paul
Nicholls trains 2 of the remaining 3 runners - but I get the feeling that
neither is particularly special (and that is backed up by the form book):
Similarly the Dan Skelton trained Idee du Garde looks to be up against
it…
In
short this looks a winnable race.
I
would expect Mercy Mercy Me to show improved form today - and whilst he will
need to improve quite markedly to match the form already shown by Elixir, I
think there’s a chance that he will do just that…
3:00
This
is a nearly impossible race to fathom, with all 17 runners almost certainly
having been aimed at it - and most of them potentially very well handicapped
!
Unfortunately,
most of them are also in decline - some serious decline - so trying to figure
out which one will win, is like trying to hit a target which is moving in
multiple directions !
That
said, I considered taking a risk on Le Reve.
He
has a tremendous record at the track - and is particularly well
handicapped.
However,
he’s only run once in the past 2 years - and whilst he showed definite promise,
he still finished last of 3 !
More
than that, he’s a 9/1 shot - and simply, that’s too short in a race of this
nature…
If
I were to formulate a short list, then in addition to him Rock Gone would be on
it along with his stable companion Band of Blood.
As
too would Rathlin Rose and Kings Lad.
However,
even with 5 stabs, I wouldn’t feel massively confident of getting one placed
!
I
think this is a race best watched and enjoyed.
One
of the old boys will rewind the clock this afternoon - and it will hopefully be
heart warming stuff.
What
more can you ask from a race, really..?!
3:35
There
is a lot of potential pace in this and I think that could set things up nicely
for Court Royale.
Our
Merlin will almost certainly lead: but Eragon de Chaney ran his best race from
the front; whilst Monsieur Lecoq made all when winning at Ffos Las, last
time.
The
3 of them may be able to work out something that doesn’t compromise their
chances - but however it pans out, there should be a very strong
gallop.
That
will suit Court Royale perfectly, as he needs a test a 2 miles - though possibly
doesn’t stay 2m4f.
He
got a good test last time, and ran really well in the class 1 Betfair trophy, at
Ascot.
I
noticed him travelling strongly down the back straight - and whilst he didn’t
manage to get involved at the finish he was ultimately only beaten 8 lengths in
a much better race than todays.
The
form of his previous run also looks good, as he beat Darling Maltex at Taunton -
with the third placed horse a further 12 lengths back.
Darling Maltex hacked up on his next outing and is now rated 17lb higher than he was that day…
Darling Maltex hacked up on his next outing and is now rated 17lb higher than he was that day…
Court
Royale on the other hand, is just 7lb higher today - so is arguably still well
handicapped.
InN
fairness, this does look a tight race - in which all, with the possible
exception of aintemillion, can be given a chance.
That
said, if the race does get run as I expect, then Court Royale is likely to be
the biggest beneficiary - and he is also a horse on the up, who is potentially
well handicapped.
In
the circumstances, I think he is worth siding with..
Wincanton
2:05
Caltex
was an official eye catcher last time - and I did wonder about tipping him in
this.
I certainly think he’s got a chance, even though he was raised 5lb for finishing second on his last outing.
That was a relatively strong race - and it was also his debut run for Henry Oliver.
I certainly think he’s got a chance, even though he was raised 5lb for finishing second on his last outing.
That was a relatively strong race - and it was also his debut run for Henry Oliver.
I
would expect him to run well this afternoon - but this looks another very tight
contest…
All
6 of the other runners can be given a chance, so it’s likely that factors such
as tactics, jumping, rhythm and luck, will ultimately decide the winner (all of
which are very difficult to predict in advance).
Aside
from Caltex, the other one that particularly interests me is Midnight
Maestro.
He
was a fair handicap hurdler last season - and I could see him making a better
chaser, this season.
That
said, he didn’t show a great deal on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter, so will
need to improve markedly to get involved this afternoon.
I
wouldn’t be at all surprised if that was exactly what happened - though I am
guessing…
Of
the others, then Molineaux looks capable of improvement on what he’s achieved so
far; whilst Enola Gay has to be respected, with Venetias horses running so
well…
In
short, this just looks a bit too trappy to get involved with.
2:40
This
is yet another race in which plenty can be given a chance…
Tedham
is the understandable favourite on his first run in a handicap.
His
novice form suggest that he could be well handicapped with an opening mark of
125 - but that has been picked up by the market.
In
terms of subtle signs, I would be a little concerned by the jockey
booking.
I’ve
nothing against Nick Scholfield, but he’s not a jockey I would expect Jonjo to
use, if he had really teed one up…
However,
even ignoring him, there are still quite a few of interest, in the
race…
Second
favourite, Dark Episode is even less exposed than Tedham - as is third
favourite, TIght Call !
I
doubt all 3 will prove to be thrown in on their handicap debuts - but it would
be no surprise if one of them is.
I
was half tempted by KK Lexion.
He
hacked up in the corresponding race, 2 years ago - and is only 3lb higher
today.
He’s also got a 7lb claimer on his back - so it theoretically well weighted.
He’s also got a 7lb claimer on his back - so it theoretically well weighted.
However,
he’s not been in the best of form recently - and whilst it would be no surprise
to see him bounce back, even if he does, he’s till got to get the better of the
handicap debutantes…
On
balance, another race best watched.
3:15
Without
wanting to sound like a broken record (!), this is another tight
handicap…
Catamaran
du Seuil is the one that appeals most - and I did briefly consider tipping
him.
He
won well on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, before falling when faced with the
big fences at Aintree - and then running unplaced in the Caspian Caviar Gold cup
at Cheltenham.
He’s
got a more realistic chance this afternoon - and I could certainly see him
running well.
The
trouble is, he faces 6 rivals, all of whom can be given a chance.
Copain
de Classe does look the most dangerous one - but he’s favourite, and there's no
margin in a price of 5/2.
Venetia’s
Calipto is the other one who really catches the eye - but again, the market is
wise to him.
In
short, it’s another race, where I can’t really see much of an angle…
Here’s
hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Sand
1:20 Western Miller 1pt win 8/1
Sand
2:25 Mercy Mercy Me 0.5pt win 25/1
Sand
3:35 Court Royale 1pt win 5/1
Mentions
Sand
3:00 Le Reve (O )
Winc
2:05 Caltex (O )
Winc
2:40 K K Lexion (O )
Winc
3:15 Catamaran du Seuil (O )
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