Daily write-up - Jan 5th

There are 4 NH meetings today (not 3, as I said earlier in the week !): at Sandown, Wincanton and Newcastle in the UK - plus Cork in Ireland.

Realistically however, it’s only Sandown and Wincanton that are of interest - and neither of them hosts particularly inspiring cards.

Ofcourse, it’s understandable, as most of the best horses ran over the Christmas period, so it makes sense that the first couple of weeks the new year, will be relatively quite.

And that’s certainly the case today: the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle at Sandown, is the feature race - but it’s a 6 runner novice hurdle; with the veterans series final, the main supporting event.

Aside from that, there are half a dozen very tight handicaps in which most of the runners can be given a chance - and it’s not easy to find an angle.

As a consequence things are a bit light, tipping-wise - and I’ve ended up with just 3 on the day.

Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other main races…

Sandown

1:20

I think Western Miller is worth supporting in this…

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, when he moved nicely in the lead, before tiring up the home straight.
I expected him to build on that next time at Taunton - and put him up as a selection on the mid week blog.

However, he ran disappointingly that day - and I’m not completely sure why.

He was taken on for the lead - and Taunton is a relatively sharp track - so maybe things just conspired against him.
He will need to bounce back from that run - but the handicapper has dropped him 4lb on the back of it, so that will help !

As a consequence, he now gets to run from a mark of 129 - and that makes him look potentially very well handicapped.

He was beaten just a neck over todays course and distance last November, when running from a mark 4lb higher.

He was also beaten in his 3 others runs last season; but 1 was at the Cheltenham festival - and the other 2 were decent novice chases.

In short, there have been reasons for all of his defeats, apart from the one at Taunton.

I’m hopeful that he will get an uncontested lead this afternoon - and if he does, then over a track where he has already performed well, he should take a bit of pegging  back.

Larry and Darius des Bois look the 2 biggest dangers.

Both are unexposed novices, who could have plenty of scope for improvement.

On the flip side, Sandown presents a stiff jumping challenge, so their lack of jumping experience could easily catch them out…

1:50

She’s obviously not a betting proposition, but it will be fascinating to see how Laurina gets on in this…

She was a massively impressive winner of the mares novice race at last season’s Cheltenham festival and followed that up by winning the grade 1 mares event at the Fairyhouse spring festival.

The form of neither race amounted to much - but it was the manner in which she won, that made you think she could be something special...

She is currently second favourite for the Champion hurdle - and neither of todays 2 rivals should really test her.

The expectation is that she will win - and win comfortably - though, even then, we are unlikely to learn much new.

Still, at least we will know that all is well with her - and that Buveur Dair might have a realistic challenger for his title…

2:25

I think it is worth taking a chance on Mercy Mercy Me in this…

He was a very decent bumper horse last season: finishing 8^th in the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival, before disappointing in the Aintree equivalent (where he was sent off at just 4/1).

He’s only run twice over hurdles this season - and has been beaten on both occasions but there are reasons for thinking he could fare better today.

Both of his hurdle races have been run on heavy ground - and that seems not to suit him.

His debut effort was also over 2m4f, which appeared to stretch his stmaina.

Back over the minimum trip today - and on decent ground - I would expect him to put in a much improved showing.

Of course, even if he does, then he’s not guaranteed to win…

Elixir de Nutz, sets a decent standard - and the form of his last time out defeat of Jarveys Plate was stamped by the runner up in no uncertain terms, on New Years day.

Elixir isn’t even the favourite for todays race.

That honour goes to Rathill - though it’s based mainly on reputation rather than achievement on the track.
In fairness he was impressive when winning his sole hurdle race at Newbury last month - but he will need to step up significantly on that run, if he is to take this grade 1 contest.

The expectation is that he will do just that - but a price of even money , barely recognises the possibility that he won’t…

Paul Nicholls trains 2 of the remaining 3 runners - but I get the feeling that neither is particularly special (and that is backed up by the form book): Similarly the Dan Skelton trained Idee du Garde looks to be up against it…

In short this looks a winnable race.

I would expect Mercy Mercy Me to show improved form today - and whilst he will need to improve quite markedly to match the form already shown by Elixir, I think there’s a chance that he will do just that…

3:00

This is a nearly impossible race to fathom, with all 17 runners almost certainly having been aimed at it - and most of them potentially very well handicapped !

Unfortunately, most of them are also in decline - some serious decline - so trying to figure out which one will win, is like trying to hit a target which is moving in multiple directions !

That said, I considered taking a risk on Le Reve.

He has a tremendous record at the track - and is particularly well handicapped.

However, he’s only run once in the past 2 years - and whilst he showed definite promise, he still finished last of 3 !

More than that, he’s a 9/1 shot - and simply, that’s too short in a race of this nature…

If I were to formulate a short list, then in addition to him Rock Gone would be on it  along with his stable companion Band of Blood.

As too would Rathlin Rose and Kings Lad.

However, even with 5 stabs, I wouldn’t feel massively confident of getting one placed !

I think this is a race best watched and enjoyed.

One of the old boys will rewind the clock this afternoon - and it will hopefully be heart warming stuff.

What more can you ask from a race, really..?!

3:35

There is a lot of potential pace in this and I think that could set things up nicely for Court Royale.

Our Merlin will almost certainly lead: but Eragon de Chaney ran his best race from the front; whilst Monsieur Lecoq made all when winning at Ffos Las, last time.

The 3 of them may be able to work out something that doesn’t compromise their chances - but however it pans out, there should be a very strong gallop.

That will suit Court Royale perfectly, as he needs a test a 2 miles - though possibly doesn’t stay 2m4f.

He got a good test last time, and ran really well in the class 1 Betfair trophy, at Ascot.

I noticed him travelling strongly down the back straight - and whilst he didn’t manage to get involved at the finish he was ultimately only beaten 8 lengths in a much better race than todays.

The form of his previous run also looks good, as he beat Darling Maltex at Taunton - with the third placed horse a further 12 lengths back.
Darling Maltex hacked up on his next outing and is now rated 17lb higher than he was that day…

Court Royale on the other hand, is just 7lb higher today - so is arguably still well handicapped.

InN fairness, this does look a tight race - in which all, with the possible exception of aintemillion, can be given a chance.

That said, if the race does get run as I expect, then Court Royale is likely to be the biggest beneficiary - and he is also a horse on the up, who is potentially well handicapped.

In the circumstances, I think he is worth siding with..

Wincanton

2:05

Caltex was an official eye catcher last time - and I did wonder about tipping him in this.
I certainly think he’s got a chance, even though he was raised 5lb for finishing second on his last outing.
That was a relatively strong race - and it was also his debut run for Henry Oliver.

I would expect him to run well this afternoon - but this looks another very tight contest…

All 6 of the other runners can be given a chance, so it’s likely that factors such as tactics, jumping, rhythm and luck, will ultimately decide the winner (all of which are very difficult to predict in advance).

Aside from Caltex, the other one that particularly interests me is Midnight Maestro.

He was a fair handicap hurdler last season - and I could see him making a better chaser, this season.

That said, he didn’t show a great deal on his chasing debut at Uttoxeter, so will need to improve markedly to get involved this afternoon.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that was exactly what happened - though I am guessing…

Of the others, then Molineaux looks capable of improvement on what he’s achieved so far; whilst Enola Gay has to be respected, with Venetias horses running so well…

In short, this just looks a bit too trappy to get involved with.

2:40

This is yet another race in which plenty can be given a chance…

Tedham is the understandable favourite on his first run in a handicap.

His novice form suggest that he could be well handicapped with an opening mark of 125 - but that has been picked up by the market.

In terms of subtle signs, I would be a little concerned by the jockey booking.

I’ve nothing against Nick Scholfield, but he’s not a jockey I would expect Jonjo to use, if he had really teed one up…

However, even ignoring him, there are still quite a few of interest, in the race…

Second favourite, Dark Episode is even less exposed than Tedham - as is third favourite, TIght Call !

I doubt all 3 will prove to be thrown in on their handicap debuts - but it would be no surprise if one of them is.

I was half tempted by KK Lexion.

He hacked up in the corresponding race, 2 years ago - and is only 3lb higher today.
He’s also got a 7lb claimer on his back - so it theoretically well weighted.

However, he’s not been in the best of form recently - and whilst it would be no surprise to see him bounce back, even if he does, he’s till got to get the better of the handicap debutantes…

On balance, another race best watched.

3:15

Without wanting to sound like a broken record (!), this is another tight handicap…

Catamaran du Seuil is the one that appeals most - and I did briefly consider tipping him.

He won well on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, before falling when faced with the big fences at Aintree - and then running unplaced in the Caspian Caviar Gold cup at Cheltenham.

He’s got a more realistic chance this afternoon - and I could certainly see him running well.

The trouble is, he faces 6 rivals, all of whom can be given a chance.

Copain de Classe does look the most dangerous one - but he’s favourite, and there's no margin in a price of 5/2.

Venetia’s Calipto is the other one who really catches the eye - but again, the market is wise to him.

In short, it’s another race, where I can’t really see much of an angle…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Sand 1:20 Western Miller 1pt win 8/1

Sand 2:25 Mercy Mercy Me 0.5pt win 25/1

Sand 3:35 Court Royale 1pt win 5/1

Mentions

Sand 3:00 Le Reve (O )

Winc 2:05 Caltex (O )

Winc 2:40 K K Lexion (O )

Winc 3:15 Catamaran du Seuil (O )