Daily write-up - Jan 24th

The abandonment of both Fakenham and Wetherby, means that there is only one NH meeting today: at Gowran Park, in Ireland.

It’s very unusual for me to be covering a mid-week day outside of the main festivals - but that’s because there are virtually no ‘big’ races run during the midweek nowadays…

The Thystes chase is an exception: the high-light of the racing year at Gowran - it is also a race close to the heart of TVB…

Who can ever forget Jadanlis victory in 2012..?!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g-XF8MKCp4

In my opinion, still just about the best tip I’ve ever issued.
28/1 in the morning (BSP of 50+) - I couldn’t see him out of the frame - and I was right :-)

Wonderful stuff…

I don’t think I’ll be able to make such a memory today - but I’ll be happy enough with a low key race win !

I’ve ended up tipping 2 in todays big race: my main fancy - plus a saver.
I did briefly toy with tipping in the Galmoy hurdle - but I can’t quite decide what to go with - so I’ve ended up going with nothing !

Here are my thoughts on the 4 main races on the Gowran card…


Gowran Park

1:50

I want to oppose Presenting Percy in this - and I’ll be very surprised if any of the outsiders win - so it feels like a race I should be having a go at.
However, I just can’t decide between the 4 in the race, who I think have a chance of winning (ignoring Presenting Percy).
I like the profile of Darasso best.
Ex. French, today will be his second run for Joseph O’Brien today, having shown promise on his stable debut at the end of last year.
I would expect him to improve for that outing - but feel he will need to, as he was comfortably beaten (and by a horse who would struggle in todays race).
At a price, I might have taken a risk on him - but 4/1 is too tight…
Coquin Mans hold more appeal at 11/2 - but he comes with significant risks…
He’s not run since being pulled up last May - and a large chunk of his attraction is because of his connections (Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh).
I’d make him just about the most likely winner - but that’s assuming Ruby is on Willies best hope !
That may not be the case, as Bapaume and Limini, are also trained by Willie - and both can be given a chance.
Of the pair, I prefer Limini - even though she is unproven over todays trip - and was very disappointing last time…
And that’s what makes this a hard race to get involved with.
Whilst I think the favourite is vulnerable - there are significant question marks against his main rivals - and even bigger ones against the outsiders !
If forced, I would side with Coqin Mans - but it wouldn’t be with the kind of conviction required, to make him a tip…

2:25

This race looks a bit of a minefield, so I won’t spent too long on it !
My 2 against the field are, Flat to the Max and Put the Kettle On.
The former is a 4 year old, representing Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott.
After a couple of disappointing runs, things clicked for him at Gowran on his penultimate outing, when winning a big field maiden.
He wore blinkers for the first time that day - and they were retained for his most recent run at Leopardstown.
That was in grade 2 company - and whilst he was well beaten, he will find todays company far less demanding.
I have a slight concern about his ability to stay 2m4f - and that tempers my enthusiasm for him.
However, if he does, then I think he has the ability to go close.
Put the Kettle on was a disappointment last time at Limerick, having previously won well at Navan.
Based on the Limerick run, he can’t beat Veneziano Springs - but I’m prepared to put a line through that effort.
He was sent off 3/1 fav and just didn’t run his race.
He’s certainly risky - but I think he also has sufficient ability to run well, in what is a very open looking contest.

3:00

It doesn’t seem quite right that 14 of the 18 runners in this feature race, are trained by either Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott.
The situation can’t be healthy for Irish racing, and whilst I’m sure that most of their runners will be doing their best and running on their individual merits - it does take away a dimension from the race.
Still, it’s the way things are - so we either accept it, or find another race to get involved with (and in truth, they dominate most of the big Irish races to the same extent).
All this said, my main fancy for the race, isn’t trained by either of them !
Mr Diablo is trained by Philip Dempsey - and will be ridden by his son, Luke.
The horse was partnered by David Mullins when he ran a massive race to finish second on his penultimate outing in the Troytown chase, back in November.
He was totally unfancied that day - but there was no fluke about the performance.
It also looks like very strong form: the winner of the race, Tout est Pemis is now rated 12lb higher and won at Grade 2 chase at Thurles on Sunday: Whilst the third horse, Magic of Light, is now rated 14lb higher, and has won her 2 subsequent starts…
Mr Diablo meanwhile, gets to run from a mark just 4lb higher today - which consequently looks very lenient.
In fairness, he has subsequently been beaten off todays mark - but that was over a shorter trip - and he may also not have fully recovered from his Troytown exertions….
He looks to have been targeted at this race - and with perfect conditions - and an attractive handicap mark, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go very close…
If there is one in the race that can beat him, I think it will be Invitation Only.
He’s a second season novice, who competed with credit, at the highest level last season.
He ran a fair race in a very hot race at Tramore on his seasonal debut on New Years Day - and that should have set him up perfectly for today.
An opening mark of 152 looks fair - and Ruby in the saddle, suggests that he is Willies number one.
He could easily be a graded horse in a handicap - and they generally find a way to win…
Of the others, then Dounikos has a very good chance based on his run behind Monalee in a grade 1 event at Leopardstown, last February (when I tipped him !).
He has the beating of Invitation Only, based on that run - but has disappointed on his 5 subsequent runs.
There was a bit more promise last time, in the Paddy Power Gold cup - but he still finished well beaten and you have to draw the line somewhere.
The final one of major interest, is Borice.
He’s a real stab in the dark - but he was well backed for the Paddy Power chase on his debut for Gordon Elliott.
However, he whacked the very first fence that day - and ended up being given an extremely quiet ride.
That told us nothing - but the market support suggested he has plenty of ability.
If he’s able to show that today, he could well be involved in the finish.

3:35

This looks a strong beginners chase - and I’ll be very surprised if it doesn't go to one of the top 4 in the betting…
Cilaos Emry is making his chasing debut after over a year off the track.
However, he’s a grade 1 performer at his peak - and if his jumping holds up, he is definitely the one to beat.
His stablemate, Duc des Genievres looks the main danger particularly as he has the benefit of chasing experiences.
That said, he only just finished in front of Ministerforsport, when the pair filled the placings beihnd A Plus Tard, at Naas last month.
However, I would except that form to be upheld, as I think Miniseterforsport ideally  wants more of a stamina test.
That is arguably true for Arctic Fire - as he has shown his best recent form over 2m4f.
However, he has also high class form over the minimum trip - and whilst he is leaving it a bit late, to turn his attention to fences, if he shows any aptitude, he could easily outrun relatively dismissive odds.
At 14/1, if there is a bet in the race, it is probably him…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.



Tips

GowP 3:00 Mr Diablo 1pt win 11/1
Gowp 3:00 Invitation Only 0.5pt win 9/2

Mentions

GowP 1:50 Coquin Mans
GowP 2:25 Flat to the Max (S ) & Put the Kettle on (S )
GowP 3:35 Arctic Fire (O )