Review of the day

Sometimes I think, that picking the winners is the easy part of this game…

Give me a race to mull over - and more often than not, I’ll return you the winner - or at least a horse that will go pretty close.

But alas, that’s only half the game.

I then need to turn that opinion into a tip - and issue that tip at a time when you all have a chance of getting on.

More than that, that time needs to coincide with a point when the bookies are offering a fair price about the horse’s chance…

And unfortunately, getting all those stars to align is rarely an easy matter…

I was very keen on Impulsive Star today - but he nearly wasn’t a tip.

That sounds ridiculous, considering he was 10/1 across the board all day yesterday - and 14 on BF, 10 mins before the off.

However, in the window where I can tip, he was a best price of 15/2.

If he had gone down to 6/1 (far from impossible), I would have drawn the line - and a winner would have been missed (officially speaking).

That’s precisely what happened with Lord Napier.

I didn’t fancy him quite as much, but I did fancy him.

He was 7/1 all day yesterday - and I backed him at 10 on BF, 10 mins before the off.

However, in the window where I can tip, he was a best price 11/2 - and I felt that was just too short.

You could say that I showed great judgement and discipline - and maybe I did.

But you could also say I got lucky…

I’m honestly not sure how best to handle these situations (and similar happens most weeks).

There probably isn’t an answer - but when I say I think the price will drift, it’s because I think the horse is too short.

If you chase down those kind of prices, you’ll almost certainly end up regretting it…

Ofcourse, finding tips wasn’t the only problem that I experience this morning - actually issuing them didn’t go too smoothly either !

For whatever reason at least 20 of you found that my emails ended up in your junk folder (what does the Spam filter know, hey ).

I don’t know why it happened: it seems to be connected to Gmail and bulk email - but I can’t offer much more than that, at this point in time.

If you did experience a problem this morning, you should mark the emails as ‘not junk’ - and add thevaluebettor@gmail.com to your contact list.

Hopefully that will resole the issue.

I will also post the emails in the forum - for a little while at least.

Anyway, on to the days action !

As I’ve just mentioned above, Impulsive Star made sure it was a good day, with a tenacious victory in the feature event at Warwick.

I’m sure a few of you picked up, that I really fancied him - though it’s always hard to be confident in a race of that nature.

Sam Waley Cohen settled him in behind the leaders - precisely as I’d hoped - and generally the horse jumped well.

He took up the running jumping the third last - but was being pressured himself, on the turn into the straight.

It looked as if Calet Mad might have his measure - but he’s not the most resolute, whilst Impulsive Star is a battler.

When he still had a chance jumping the last, I thought he’d come out on top.

And that’s exactly what happened, as he powered away on the run in, for what was ultimately, a comfortable win…

He was the second winner on the day, as Mercian Prince had already delivered at Kempton.

I wasn’t quite as keen on him - though I knew he had a good chance.

Jack Quinlan was very positive on him and set out to make all.

The horse didn’t let him down and jumped from fence to fence.

I suspect his rivals didn’t perform to their best (as I suspected might be the case) - but I think he would have destroyed them even if they had.

He ultimately eased to a 17 length win - and is definitely a contender for easiest winning tip of the season !

Secret Investor was the other big tip on the day, and I was slightly disappointed/frustrated by him.

There weren’t really any excuses, but I can’t help but feel he could have won.

His jumping fluctuated between brilliant and poor - and the poor jumps cost him both momentum and position.

Ultimately that scuppered his chance of winning - though he was a clear second best.

I certainly wouldn’t give up on him, because from what I saw today, the ability is there for him to take high rank - once his jumping becomes more consistent.

The days 2 other tips were more speculative - and ran accordingly !

Lever Du Soleil was ridden more aggressively today - but just wasn’t good enough.

At least we now know where we stand with him !

Rock on Rocky also raced prominently - and how he managed to stay upright after ploughing through the fourth fence, I’ve no idea.

I’m sure that cost him his chance - and in the circumstances, he did quite well to finish fourth.

He’s likely to be dropped to a rating below 120, on the back of that run - and he’ll win next time out - mark my words !!

Finally, a quick round up of for the Mentions:

5 of the 6 finished third - and the other one finished fourth - which is roughly what I expect from Mentions !

Lord Napier ran well - but lacked tactical pace: Barney Dwan was unlucky to be badly impeded - whilst First assignment was bullet well dodged !

All in all then, a very busy day - but as you know by now, that tends to be the way in the world of TVB !!

TVB.