Daily write-up - Jan 13th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Kelso in the UK and Punchestown in Ireland.

Earlier in the week, when I looked at the 5 day declarations, I was optimistic that we might get a decent days racing - but it’s not really turned out that way…

Certainly, the card at Kelso is disappointing: there are two class 2 handicaps - but they have only mustered a total of 8 runners between them.

It’s down the ground - which remains unseasonally quick - but it’s still disappointing…

Field sizes aren’t the issue at Punchestown - but most of the races look unfathomable !

The Mullins/Elliott domination never helps - but that’s even more the case when you are looking at novice events…

Still, there will be other days that we can attack - the month has gone really well so far, so there’s certainly no need to try and force anything…

I have issued one small tip on the day.

It’s a recent eye catcher - and whilst it comes with risks - I’ve little doubt that the horse could hack up, if it’s on its ‘A’ game (or possibly even its ‘B’ game !)

Here’s the rationale behind the tip - and brief thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Kelso

1:35

You won’t see a much weaker field for a £20K race !

Just the 4 runners - and only 2 of them are in the handicap proper.

More than that, the 2 that are, have both got question marks hanging over them, as they are having their first runs over hurdles for new trainers…

I can’t help but feel that an opportunity to pick up some easy prize money has been missed, for a few 125+ rated 2 mile hurdlers…

In terms of what will win the race - then it’s anybodies guess !

The old Diamond King would hack up - but I’ll be a bit surprised if the old Diamond King turns up !; Prince Charmin should have a good chance based on his Irish form - but could easily need the run; Martila should be the selection by default - though he probably needs softer ground; whilst The Herd Garden shouldn’t have a chance from 10lb out of the handicap - but…!

If absolutely forced, I would probably side with The Herd Garden, as he’s the outsider of the field (so at least you get a decent price !) - however, I’m not being absolutely forced !!

2:05

The second class 2 race on the card - and there’s another disappointing turn out.

In fairness, this time it is just about numbers, as the 4 runners are all decent.

I suspect that Mount Mews is the most decent of them all - though he’s having his first run for Donald McCain and hasn’t been seen since last March, so his fitness has to be taken on trust.

As a consequence, a price of 2/1, has limited appeal…

If he’s not fully wound up, then I suspect that either Dimple or Eureu Du Boulay will take advantage - even though the latter may prefer a softer surface…

Again, it’s not a race that you could consider getting seriously involved with.

Mount Mews could outclass his rivals - but it’s just as likely that he will need the run.

A watching brief is recommended…

3:10

Henryville caught my eye last month, on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.

That was his first run for Peter Bowen and he raced with real zest, until tiring up the home straight.

I would expect him to have improved significantly for that run - and he also gets a hood re-applied today, which should help him settle.

If that is the case, then he probably has the ability to destroy todays field.

Certainly, that was the case when he was at his peak.

In the past, he has been rated 156 over hurdles and 153 over fences - but today he runs off a mark of just 137.

He’s down in class as well: a regular performer in class 1 races - he’s been running in class 2 races recently - but drops to class 3 today…

In terms of todays conditions, then he will get the good ground that he needs: and  whilst there is a slight question mark concerning the trip, he has run well at 3 miles before (though never won) - and todays small field is likely to mean that it won’t be a severe stamina test.

I think this essentially boils down to whether Peter Bowen has managed to rekindle the flame.

My impression, from the way he raced at Chepstow, was that the horse was enjoying the game again.
If that is the case, then I’ll be a little surprised if he doesn’t win…

Punchestown

1:15

In receipt of weight from all of his rivals, A Plus Tard is likely to take a bit of beating in this.

Following a decent Irish debut at Gowran in November, when he finished second, he went one better when winning a good quality race at Naas, just before Christmas.

In truth, he won’t need to significantly better that effort to win again today - and he very much looks the one to beat…

Unfortunately, that is reflected in a price of 11/8 - and whilst his jumping has looked sound, that is a very short price to take about any novice chaser !

At a bigger price, then I could see Jetz running well.
He did just that when I tipped him on his penultimate outing in the grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.

He didn’t really give himself a chance that day, as he wouldn’t settle - and it’s interesting to see that the hood has been removed today.

Apparently, the plan is to let him stride on - and there is a chance that those tactics could work.

Certainly, it could make him a decent in-running play (having backed pre-race).

The final one worthy of a mention, is Ben Dundee.
He’s disappointed the last twice, but I was quite impressed by him when he won over todays course and distance in November.

If he can recapture that form, he could outrun odds of 10/1.

2:50

This looks a race best tackled with a pin !

There are 2 runners for Mullins; 2 runners for Elliott - and 2 runners for the others !

The market thinks that Willie is most likely to saddle the winner, courtesy of Buildmeupbuttercup or Harrie - and it may be right !

Jan Maat looks to have a lot on - but all of the other 5, strike me as possible winners…

I wouldn’t be inclined to have a conventional bet in the race - but I suspect Felix Desjy will lead and travel strongly.
Whether he will last home, is a different matter - but it could make him another fair in-running play…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Kelso 3:10 Henryville 0.5pt win 6/1

Mentions

Kelso 2:05 Mount Mews (C )

Dobbers

Punch 1:15 Jetz

Punch 2:50 Felix Desjy