Daily write-up - Jan 1st

There are 7 NH meetings today: 5 in the UK - and 2 in Ireland.

Another busy day !

Before I get on to that, however: Happy New Year !

Sincere best wishes for 2019 - I hope turns out a great year for you all :)

Right - pleasantries over, down to business !

The main meeting today, takes place at Cheltenham: though there is a reasonable supporting card at Musselburgh - and a couple of fair races at Exeter.

There is also a cracking chase on the Tramore card !

I had a good look at the 2 big races at Musselburgh - but didn’t feel particularly strongly about anything.

In the 1:40 race, Upsilon Bleu looks to have a good chance of reversing last seasons result with Knockgraffon - but he’s 3/1 - and the other 3 runners, all have a chance.

I’ve no idea what will win the feature race on the card (2:15) - and I don’t really want to guess !

Over at Tramore, the big race looks to rest between the 3 market principals.

My feeling is that Alpha Des Obeaux could well take advantage of his race fitness and beat the Willie Mullins trained runners - but again, I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to

consider getting properly involved…

So it all comes down to Cheltenham !

Thankfully, they stage a really good card, with 5 races of definite interest.

I obviously have views on them all - and surprise, surprise, I also felt there was just about enough in the prices this morning, to warrant tipping in all 5 !

One quick thing, before I get on to the main preview:

I’ve been meaning to add a list, at the bottom of the write-up, to cover potential ‘dobbers’ (‘double or bust’, for those not in the know !).

These are horses who I think are likely to half in price on BF, in-running (BSP compared to in-running low).
I often point them out in the write-up (Valadom was one on Saturday) - so this is merely a more structured way of recording them.

Hopefully, a few of you will find it an interesting addition to the write-up - and they will also turn out to be profitable to follow !

Anyway, here is the rationale behind the days tips - along with my thoughts on the other main races on the Cheltenham card (plus the first official Dobbers !).

Cheltenham

12:50

This is a very competitive race, but I think it’s worth taking a chance on Beware the Bear…

He’s back down to a mark just 1lb higher than the one he won the rehearsal chase from last year- and 4lb lower than when 4^th at last season Cheltenham festival.

He’s therefore a well handicapped horse - but that’s not the big appeal…

He’s also a very lazy horse - and I’m hoping that the application of first time blinkers this afternoon, will galvanise him !

He wore cheek pieces for the first time, on his most recent run in the Ladbroke trophy, at Newbury.

I watched him quite closely that day - and whilst he wasn’t transformed by the application of head gear - it did seem to make him race with more enthusiasm.

Blinkers are a more severe method of getting a horse to focus - but the suggestion from that run, is that they could well work for him.

If they do, then I think he will take a lot of beating…

Todays trip is a minimum for him - but there is likely to be a strong pace, so stamina will be needed.

I’ve also generally have a bit of an issue with horses carrying more than 12 stone - but he’s a big brute and I reckon he’ll be able to cope with it !

Of his rivals, then Some Chaos and Rolling Dylan are both solid options - but neither set an insurmountable standard and they’ve been well found in the market.

Perfect Candidate and The Druids Nephew are handicapped to win - but they have both just turned 12 and there must be a chance that the years are catching up with them.

Aside from Beware the Bear, the one that interest me most, is Thomas Crapper.
He too is now 12 - but he’s been in good form, recently.

I was very tempted by him - but I just think the 3m2f trip will catch him out.

I can see him cantering into the lead (and trading low in running) - but I can also see Beware the Bear running him down after the last.

Now that would be a nice way to start the new year, wouldn’t it ?!

1:25

I’m really keen on Lostintranslation in this - I’m just very disappointed with his price !

Up against 3 extremely well touted rivals, I thought he would be 4^th favourite - and maybe available at around 5/1 - but alas, no !

He’s been backed into near favouritism - though hopefully his price will drift a little, closer to the off…

In terms of why I like him: then it’s primarily down to his 2 runs this season, against Le Bague au Roi.

We saw on Boxing day, just how good she is - and whilst she has had his measure on both occasions - he’s made her fight for her wins.

That is top class novice chase form - and whilst the 3 other horses at the head of market, have the potential to match it, non of them has done so yet.
More than that, Black Op and Defi de Seuil would prefer softer ground than they will get today; whilst On the Blind Side is making his chasing debut (and his seasonal debut)
Maybe this all explains why Lotintranslation is so popular in the market !

In fact, it wouldn’t massively surprise me if his main danger turns out to be the outsider of the field, Crucial Role.

He had no pretentions to this level over hurdles - but looked good when wining a decent novice chase at Uttoxeter last time.

That said, he didn’t face anything of the calibre of Lostintranslation..!

2:00

This is a strange race in so much as I can see reasons why just about every runner can’t win it !

Off a mark of 158, Aso is surely too high in the handicap: whilst it’s a lot to ask for Divine Spear or Give me a Copper to take it on their seasonal debuts (particularly as both lack chasing experience).

Ballyhill will have quite a job on, trying to repeat last years success, having been raised 10lb for his last time out win: whilst Happy Diva arrives on the back of a nasty fall - and would prefer softer ground.

Dustin des Mottes seems to have limitations - though he is still relatively unexposed in this country, so can’t be completely dismissed; whilst Born Survivor is probably still fairly handicapped and comes here a fresh horse (which is in his favour).

I was half tempted by the last 2 named - though I do have some doubts about Born Survivor getting up the Cheltenham hill…

Almost by a process of elimination, I arrived at Foxtail Hill.

He’s a horse that I’ve tipped to win in the past - when he was successful in a similar race to todays, 2 years ago.

He ran off a mark just 2lb lower that day - and against a stronger field - so from a handicapping perspective, he has a definite chance.

I also think there is a possibility that he’ll get an uncontested lead today.

There is no guaranteed pace in the race, and I’ll be a little disappointed if Jamie Bargary doesn’t ride him aggressively.

That’s been the case for his 2 most recent wins, which were both gained over todays course.

By contrast, last time out he was settled in last - and didn’t greatly improve that position throughout the race !

On the plus side, he was dropped 3lb by the handicapper... 

I suspect we will know our fate quite early with him.
If Foxtail Hill jumps the first in the lead, then I’ll be cautiously optimistic - if that’s not the case, then my expectations for a favourable result, won’t be overly high !!

2:35

I do think there is a chance that Aux Ptits Soins could take this race apart…

He won the Coral Cup on his UK debut, almost 3 years ago - and at that point in time, it looked as if he could be anything.

I can’t recall a horse ever winning on it’s UK debut at the Cheltenham festival - and he really did appear to be something special...

However, apart from a few flickers of promise, he’s subsequently been a disappointment.

It was therefore very interesting to see him reappear at Newbury in November, representing the stable of Dan Skelton.

Not many horses improve for leaving Paul Nicholls – but owner John Hales, took the same path with Al Ferof a few years back, and the move rekindled his flame.

I guess it just comes down to a change of scenery and routine - and has to be worth a go, if all else has failed !

Anyway, in the Newbury race, Aux Ptits Soins travelled like the wroth of god - until the second last hurdle - when he seemed to blow up.

All the same it was a hugely promising - and eye catching run - and if he can build on that today, I think he will outclass his rivals.

He is back down to a mark just 2lb higher than he won the Coral cup from - and this is no Coral cup !

Ofcourse there is a chance that he will go backwards from the run - but at 11/2, I think its worth the risk to find out…

If he doesn’t perform as hoped, then this is a difficult race to unpick.

A case can be made for most of the runners - with Juge et Parti looking the best value, at around 14/1.

However, if Aux Ptits Soins brings his ‘A’ game to the party, I think the rest will be playing for second place…

3:10

Despite what the betting suggests, this looks a pretty open race to me and I think it is worth taking a chance of Cyrus Darius…

On official ratings, he has a lot to do - but that is mainly because he’s been dropped 6lb for his 2 runs this season -which I think is very generous of the assessor !

Certainly I felt he shaped with a good deal of promise on his seasonal debut at Haydock (he was an official eye catcher that day): and whilst he did nothing on his most recent run at Ascot, that race was never going to suit him…

I think he will be much better suited by todays small field - and it strikes me as interesting that Colin Tizzard is letting him run, just 11 days after Ascot.

The suggestion is that he took little out of himself - and I would agree with that.

I did have a slight concern that today good to soft ground might be a bit quick for him as he is very effective in the heavy. However he’s won on good to soft in the past - and the decent ground should ensure that todays race doesn’t turn into a slog (which I don’t  think would suit him).

I suspect he will be given a patient ride by Robbie Power - sitting out the back - and then look to deliver a challenge up the home straight.

At that point, we are likely to find out whether he is good enough…!

If he’s not, then I think Old Guard will be the one who takes advantage.

He has a lot in his favour today - though he has already run plenty of times this season, and that might catch him out.

He also has to give Cyrus Darius 6lb - and if the latters rating hadn’t been dropped, that would make them virtually the same horse (which is roughly how I would see it).

However, Old Guard is a 4/1 shot – so with Cyrus available at 16/1, I was only ever going to jump one way !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 12:50 Beware the Bear 1pt win 15/2

Chel 1:25 Lostintranslation 1pt win 3/1

Chel 2:00 Foxtail Hill 0.5pt win 14/1

Chel 2:35 Aux Ptits Soins 1pt win 11/2

Chel 3:10 Cyrus Darius 0.5pt win 16/1

Mentions

Muss 1:40 Upsilon Bleu (O )

Tram 2:20 Alpha Des Obeaux (O )

Dobbers

Chel 12:50 Thomas Crapper

Chel 3:10 Cyrus Darius