Daily write-up - Jan 26th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK - plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s Festival trials day at Cheltenham - and although it’s questionable whether many of the races will actually have a major bearing on the Festival, most of them are decent contests.

The feature race at Doncaster is the Sky bet chase - and whilst a reasonable sized field will go to post for that, there is a lack of runners in most of the other races on the card.
The continued dry spell is the reason - and the water Doncaster put on the course earlier in the week, hasn’t persuaded many trainers to take a risk…

The days most competitive fields are at Uttoxeter - which also has the softest ground (coincidence ? I don’t think so !).
The issue there is the quality of the races - and consequently fragile markets…

All this said, I did expect to find a few more tips today, than I’ve been able.

Cheltenham was the obvious place to go looking - and whilst I eventually managed to find a three there, I did expect to find more.
I’ve also got one in the feature race at Doncaster - and another in a smaller race at Uttoxeter.

Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races…


Cheltenham

12:40

Joseph O’Brien sends 2 over for this Triumph hurdle trial and both look interesting…
In truth, Fakir D’oudaries probably looks the slightly more interesting - but the 12/1 he opened at yesterday, was 6/1 this morning and that is not a price to encourage taking a risk…
Fine Brunello on the other hand, has been relatively friendless in the market - and at a price of around 20/1, I think he is worth a speculative play…
He’s only run once for Joseph, at Limerick, over the Christmas period.
He was also relatively unfancied that day (SP 25/1) - but ran really well, to finish fourth behind his stablemate, Band of Outlaws.
He was staying on strongly in the closing stages, which should stand him in good for the stiffer test at Cheltenham this afternoon.
On form, he has a lot to do in todays race - but he has boundless scope for improvement and couldn’t have better connections (owned by JP McManus and ridden by Barry Geraghty).

1:15

This looks a really open race, in which all 8 runners can be given a chance of sorts…
I can understand Kildisart being favourite - but he doesn’t have a lot in hand of Azzerti on their Ascot run and 7/2 is too short for him…
I also think that 9/2 is too short for Enola Gay - it strikes me that the Venetia factor is being over played with this one…
If I had got involved with the race, it probably would have been with Spiritofthegames.
He finished last of 4 on his most recent run - but he was trying to give 12lb to La Bague au Roi and I doubt many horses could do that.
He’s been well backed this morning - which could be significant…
Of the outsiders, then I think First Drift is probably over-priced at 16/1 - but I suspect he will find a couple too good: whilst Onefortheroadtom is potentially the most interesting runner in the field - particularly if he comes in for market support (currently 12/1).
However, with it possible to construct cases for most of the runners - and no obvious significant margin with prices, this has to be a watching race.

1:50

This is another race where quite a few can be given a chance - however, I like the chances of Ballyhill best…
He won over course and distance just over a year ago, before losing his form.
However, he has bounced back this season and following a good run over hurdles at Bangor, hacked up in a fair chase at Aintree.
That saw his mark raised by 10lb - but he ran really well last time, off his new mark. That was in a similar race to todays and he finished third behind two very good rivals, in the shape of Aso and Happy Diva.
Aso is now being touted as a Ryanair candidate; whilst Happy Diva won a listed chase at Huntingdon, yesterday.
Ballyhill pulled clear with the pair of them - and I suspect it is strong form…
Understandably, his mark wasn’t dropped for that effort - but he does get 7lb claimer Jordan Nailer in the saddle this afternoon.
He takes over from Sam Twiston Davies - and whilst he might not yet be quite as good as STD, I doubt he is 7lb inferior.
As a result, it can be argued that the horse has effectively dropped in the handicap.
Using that argument - and against weaker opposition today, then I think he is worth siding with, at 7/1.
Of his opponents, then all of the main dangers look to be at towards the head of the market.
Janika will be hard to beat if building on a very promising UK debut: whilst Siruh du Lac and The Kings Writ both look progressive…
Brelan Das is the other one of interest - but again, he looks priced up about right.

2:25

This is a tough race to call, because there are question marks over all 6 runners:
Frodon may find the trip too far; whilst Elegant Escape may find it too short !
Terrefort would be the one to beat, on last seasons form - but ran inexplicably badly on his seasonal debut at Sandown.
Daryl Jacobs still prefers him to Valtor - so that hardly advertises the claims of the latter !
Minella Rocco is the theoretical bet in the race (best in at the weights and suited by the test) - but I suspect he will come on for the run; whilst Allyson Monterg really shouldn’t be good enough to win a race of this nature (unless the other 5 all under-perform).
If forced, I would probably side with Terrefort, in the hope that he can bounce back to form.
But at around 4/1, guessing has limited appeal…

3:00

This is the most disappointing race on the card - and it’s not one that I have a particularly strong view on…
Jarveys Plate sets the form standard on the back of his win over course and distance, on New Years day.
However, he is burdened with a 5lb penalty for that victory - and I suspect he will struggle to give weight to Birchdale and Brewinupastorm.
Of that pair, the latter has the best form - but the former strikes me as the most likely winner.
He is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has an embarrassment of riches in the novice hurdle department, this season.
Birchdale is clearly highly thought of - and also looked pretty good, when winning on his debt at Warwick.
You couldn't back him at 7/4, based on what he has achieved - but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either…

3:35

I was going to pass on this race - but the drift in the price of Midnight Shadow has changed my mind !
It’s an absolutely cracking race - and in truth, a chance can be given to at least half the field…
The old staying guard of Unowhatimeanharry and Lil Rockerfeller are taken on by new kids on the block, in the shape of Paisley Park and Midnight Shadow - but there is far more to the race than that !
Black Op reverts to hurdling after showing inaptitude for fences; whilst Aux Ptit Soins looks to build on a most promising seasonal debut, which suggested he could yet make it to the top.
When you add into the mix, the enigma that Sam Spinner is becoming - plus a couple of others who could be given half chances - then you have a race worth travelling a fair way to see…
Instinctively, I feel that Paisley Park and Midnight Shadow are the 2 to focus on - and that is why the drift in the price of Midnight Shadow has enticed me in.
The doubt with him is the trip - but if he does stay he could prove hard to beat.
Certainly, he has looked very strong in the finish on his 2 most recent runs - and they were both over 2m4f.
He has to tackle half a mile further today - but I think there is as much chance that he will improve for the trip, as there is of him not staying…
The decent ground will help - and he showed last time that the Cheltenham hill holds no fears for him.
It’s an open race for sure - but I think he has a good chance - and his current odds now under-estimate that chance.

4:10

I did intend to get involved with this race - but the two horses I was considering siding with, were well backed early and any margin in their prices, evaporated…
I think that Flash the Steel is the most likely race winner.
He did very well to win last time at Doncaster, rallying, having been headed on the run to the last.
He will be well suited by todays stiffer track - and as that was his first run in a handicap - and only his third over hurdles - he’s likely to have plenty of scope for improvement.
Certainly, it’s not hard to think that he could end up a fair bit better than his current rating of 125…
The issue is a price of 10/3, which leaves no margin for error…
Maquisard is the other one I was interested in - and at a double figure price I would have taken a risk on him.
He was 11/1 early - but I suspect he was tipped by someone just after 8:00 - and the 8/1 now available, has no margin in it…
I think he will run well - and should go close - though I have a slight concern about his ability to get up the Cheltenham hill (particularly if there is any rain).
In truth, it’s not just a 2 horse race - which is why chasing a price down, has no appeal.
If either one drifts near the off (I’ll be targeting 5/1 and 10/1), then I’ll get involved - otherwise, I’ll just watch…


Doncaster

3:15

I wouldn’t normally side with a relatively exposed 10 year old in a race of this nature - but it’s hard to ignore the claims of Federici…
He finished a close up fifth in the corresponding race last season - and runs today off a pound lower mark.
He wore blinkers for the first time that day and they possibly caused him to run a little too freely. They are back on today - but he should be more used to them by now, so their impact should be slightly less.
He was without them when he made his seasonal debut in the Becher chase at Aintree, last month,.
He still ran really well, to finish fifth - and it strikes me as significant, that they are re-applied today.
There can be absolutely no dounbt that connections would love to win todays race: not just for the prize money - but also because it would probably result in a ratings rise which would give him a chance of gettign into the Grand National.
With Brian Hughes in the saddle, I’m sure the horse will be giving it everything…
Whether that will be enough to get him home in front, remains to be seen.
Dingo Dollars strikes me as a very solid favourite - and if his price was a little bigger, I would at least be saving on him.
His price has drifted a bit (9/4 out to 3/1) - but I would want at least 7/2 to justify supporting him.
Maybe that will happen as the off approaches and you can all get him on side too - but for official purposes it’s down to Federici !


Uttoxeter

2:15

There is some great racing at Cheltenham this afternoon - but it is very competitive (as you would expect) and there is little doubt in my mind, that Hastrubal is the best bet of the day…

Some of you might find that strange, as he’s a 10 race maiden, who is making his fencing debut - but I never let those kind of details put me off !
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Bangor, when he ran really well to finsih second behind the progressive Eric le Rouge.
As that was his first run for 18 months, I thought there was a chance he might ‘bounce’ next time - but instead, he ran just as well, when again finishing second to a progressive horse at Warwick.
On his most recent outing, I expected him to win - but yet again, he could only finish second (though this time it was behind a horse returning to form).
Despite 3 seconds in a row, I don’t think there is anything wrong with Hastrubals attitude.
I just think he’s a bit one paced - and what he really needs is a trip in soft ground (which is what he gets this afternoon).
Whilst in theory, the fact he is tackling fences makes him risky - he looks like a chaser to me - and the vast majority of Henry Dalys horses improve for a fence.
I’m absolutely convinced that he is far better than his current rating of 114 - and hopefully this afternoon, he will start to demonstrate that.
In terms of dangers: then if he jumps round cleanly and is as good as I think, I’ll be surprised if anything in the field can beat him.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tips

Chel 12:40 Fine Brunello 0.5pt win 22/1
Chel 1:50 Ballyhill 1pt win 7/1
Chel 3:35 Midnight Shadow 0.5pt win 8/1
Donc 3:15 Federici 0.5pt win 11/1
Uttox 2:15 Hastrubal 1.5pt win 11/2

Mentions

Chel 1:15 Spiritofthegames (O )
Chel 2:25 Terrefort (S )
Chel 3:00 Birchdale (P )
Chel 4:10 Flashing the Steel (P ) & Marqusard (C )