Daily write-up - Mar 12th (Cheltenham Day 1)

Day 1 of the Cheltenham festival…

I think I’m getting old: it certainly doesn’t seem 12 months since the last one !
In fact, I’ve lost count of the number of festivals that I’ve now previewed (I think this is the eighth one - though I could be wrong).

There have been some great races during that time - and some great memories - and I’m sure this years festival won’t disappoint (it never does).

What might disappoint however, is the weather !

I said a few weeks back that what I hated most with this job, was rain (or the threat of rain), on a Friday evening.
I’d like to change that: what I actually hate most, is rain (or the threat of rain), on the Monday evening, before the Cheltenham festival starts !

Yet that is exactly what we got - and it’s the threat of significant rain (up to 15mm).

As things currently stand the ground looks a perfect mix of good to soft - soft in places, with a thick covering of grass.
However, what it will be like when this afternoons races are run, is anyones guess…

I suspect it will be soft - and that will put a very different slant on things.
It will also make it harder to figure out what will happen for the rest of the week - as the ground may dry out - or further rain may fall.

I guess nobody said it was easy…

We have 2 choices: either to take an educated guess on conditions: or accept we won’t know and give the racing a miss !
In truth, there isn’t really a choice…

That said, my tendency is to tread carefully - at least on day 1.

The racing is brilliant - but it would be very hard to assess, even if we knew how the ground was riding.
With that key piece of info missing (at least, when decisions on tips needed to be made), it makes sense to ease in gradually…

As you would expect, I’ve previewed all of the afternoons races - but I’ve not gone mad with the tips.
Hopefully we’ll have more clarity on conditions, as the week progresses…

Here are my thoughts on day 1.


Cheltenham

1:30

This is an absolute cracker to start the meeting with - though identifying the winner, certainly isn’t easy…
Of the 3 market leaders, I prefer the chances of Angel Breath to that of Al Dancer and Klassical Dream. The latter in particular, looks under-priced at 5/1 (he has nothing in hand of Aramon, on their meeting at the Dublin racing festival).
I’ve no major issue with Al Dancer - and I would expect him to run well - I just think he looks beatable and 5/1 is too short a price…
Arguably it is too short a price for Angel Breath - but he’s a horse with huge potential (and a reputation to match), so I think it’s harder to judge the ‘right’ price for him.
Whatever, I think he is just about the most likely winner…
That said, Fakir D’oudaries is a real danger - re-routed to this, from the Triumph hurdle.
He was really impressive when winning the juvenile race on trial day at the end of January - though how that form will translate in all age company, is anyones guess…
The race would be strong enough if just those 4 were running - but there are at least another half dozen, all of whom can be given a chance of sorts…
Both Aramon and Vision D’honneur, have form that gives them almost the same chance as Klassical Dream (and makes them better bets !).
I suspect both are unlikely winners - but either could be placed.
Grand Sancy, Mister Fisher, Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet, have all got form that links in with Elixir de Nutz.
He was withdrawn from the race yesterday evening - but looked to have a fair chance.
By definition, the 4 named, therefore can be given a chance (at least of placing) - though soft ground could be an issue for the last 3…
It’s not even possible to completely eliminated, Felix Desjy, Brandon Castle, The Big bite or Tokay Dokey - which shows just how open the race is !

If forced to select the most likely winner, I’d go with Angel Breath; whilst Al Dancer looks the one most likely to place.
There are plenty of each way, value options - and the ground is likely to have a big effect on which horses run well.
Assuming it is on the soft side, the Grand Sancy, could run in to a place at 14/1: whilst if the ground were to remain on the good side, Itchy Feet would be very interesting, at 33/1.

2:10

There could be some serious pace in this race, with Knocknanus and Ornua both habitual front runners: and Articulm, Clondaw Castle, Duc de Genieveres, Paloma Blue and Glen Forsa all having lead last time.
Clearly the race can’t be run to suit all 7 - so something will have to give.
I doubt it will be either Knocknanus or Ornua, so it’s to be hoped that the other 5 are happy to slot in !
I suspect that Duc de Genievres and Glen Forsa will do just that - but that means they won’t be able to duplicate the run style which has resulted in recent impressive wins.
We will find out this afternoon, whether they are adaptable, with regard to racing style…
Plenty of race pace, shouldn’t be an issue for Lalor, Hardline or Kalashnikov - and that makes them safer bets.
That said, soft ground won’t be ideal for Lalor: whilst Hardlines best form is arguably at half a mile further.
His stamina should be an asset this afternoon - but that is also the case for Kalashnikov.
In fact, Kalashnikov, has ticks in plenty of boxes…
He was just about the best of the runners over hurdles - with his second placing in last years Supreme novice hurdle, demonstrating an aptitude for the course.
He will have no issue, with softening ground - in fact, his best form has been shown under testing conditions.
At 6, he’s the youngest runner in the field - but his 4 runs over fences mean that he’s not short in fencing experience.
The only real blip in his credentials, is his last time out defeat to Glen Forsa at Sandown.
He was sent off a very short priced favourite that day, but Glen Forsa destroyed him, with quick accurate jumping.
However, Sandown is a very different track to Cheltenham (sharper and right handed) - and allowed to get into a rhythm, there must be a chance that the form flatters Glen Forsa (and shows Kalashnikov in a poor light).
Certainly, I’m prepared to ignore it - and without that run is his record, Kalashnikov would be close to favourite for this…
Jack Quilan will need to make sure he keeps involved - and to achieve that the horse will need to jump well.
However, if that happens, then I think he has every chance of winning.
Certainly I think that odds of around 9/1 under-estimates his chance.

2:50

I am fearful that the conditions will mess things up for Minella Rocco In this…
I took a chance on him, last week - when the ground was forecast as ‘good to soft’ - and on that ground, I’d be very keen on him.
However, he really doesn’t want it soft - never mind heavy - so if it does rain all morning, I doubt he will feature…
And that’s a shame, because I could construct a very strong case for him !
On his 2 previous runs at the festival, he’s won the 4 miler (beating subsequent Gold Cup winner, Native River) - and finished runner up in the Gold Cup (to Sizing John).
Those 2 runs, suggest he is capable of running to a mark of around 170 - yet today, he runs off a mark of just 152 !
That’ s because he has disappointed a few times since his Gold Cup run - though I think there were good reasons for most of those poor runs.
His most recent effort over hurdles at Exeter, suggested that the ability still remains - and I suspect that Jonjo will have him spot on for today (it’s a race he has won 3 rimes, in the past 10 years).
If the sun was shining, then I don’t think we would need look anywhere else for the race winner - but with storm clouds above, we might…
The trouble is, take him out of the race and it looks a lot harder to call…
I considered a saver on last years winner, Coo Star Sivola - but there is no margin in a price of 10/1 for a horse who ran very poorly last time.
Noble Endeavour is another one I considered getting on side - but even more guesswork is required with him, as he’s only run once in the past 2 years…
Both have a chance - but so do Up for Review, Give me a Copper and Mister Whitaker - and that’s just from the top of the market.
There is also the question mark over ground conditions - as very soft would greatly help the chance of Beware the Bear and Vintage Clouds…
On balance, I decided that it didn’t make sense to get involved further with the race.
If somehow, the rain stays away, then I think we are on the right horse: if it pours down, then we probably aren’t - but it’s not easy to decide which the right one is !

3:30

It seems crazy to see dual Champion hurdler, Buveur D’air as big as 11/4 for this…
It’s not as if he’s done much wrong this season: an imperious win on his seasonal debut, when he looked better than ever, was admittedly followed by a disappointing defeat in the Christmas hurdle. However, on ground too quick - and a track to sharp - that is relatively easy to forgive.
His last time win, at Sandown suggested he was just as good as ever - and under ideal conditions today, he is going to take the world of beating…
The trouble for him is that he is opposed by 2 high class mares - and he has to give them both 7lb.
The question is whether he will be up to the job…?
No one knows for sure - but I do think that it’s very much in his favour, that 2 miles is his trip, whereas both Apples Jade and Laurina, would both prefer further…
As is so often the case in tight races, jockeyship could well be key.
Jack Kennedy is likely to try to make all on Apples Jade - with Barry and Ruby tracking him, on Buveur D’air and Laurina, respectively…
I’ll be a little surprised if Luarina is good enough (though in truth, we don’t know where the ceiling of her ability lies); however, I’ll be far less surprised, if Buveur D’air proves to be Apples Jades master…
I can see Barry tracking her until after the last - and then powering past on the run in.
It could be argued that 11/4 is a price worth getting involved with - and I certainly wouldn’t dissuade anyone who wanted an interest.
However, this strikes me as an exceptional horse race - which I’ll be more than happy, just to watch unfold, without financial interest…

4:10

If she weren’t being touted as Willie Mullins best chance of the week, I wonder what price Benie des Dieux would be in this…
It’s true that she won the corresponding race last season: but Apples Jade ran well below her best, so she only beat the 145 rated (and fully exposed) Midnight Tour, by half a length.
That form gives her a chance today - but it certainly doesn’t make her an even money shot…
Obviously you have to respect what Willie and Ruby say - but at the odds, she really should be taken on…
I’m not that keen on her stable-mates either: with both Limini and Stormy Island looking beatable.
The suggestion is therefore, that there could be some serious value in the race - and maybe I should have had more of a crack at it.
The trouble is, even eliminating the Mullins trio, it still looks a tough race to call…
Roksana is the obvious one - particularly as Dan Skelton seems to have teed her up for the race.
However, she has plenty on, ratings-wise - and 7/1 is a tight enough price.
Lady Buttons has a better chance, based on ratings - but she struggled to win last time and I wonder if she’s had enough for the season.
Momella appears to be a better bet - and I think she is worth having on side.
She has good course form, will be suited by the 2m4f trip - and will relish soft ground (assuming that’s what we get !).
She will be having just her third run for Harry Fry this afternoon - having disappointed on her first 2.
however, her form from last season, shows that she is capable of operating at this level - and there is a possibility that she may have improved...
The obvious play is each way - but I’m happy to go win only, with Benie looking vulnerable - and Momella herself, lacking consistency.
The final one of interest in the race, is Jester Jet.
She’s another who should relish conditions - and it’s hard to see her not running her race.
I think she looks less likely than Momella to win - but more likely to place.
She could be worth a small EW saver…

4:50

With 20 relatively unexposed runners, this looks very tough race to call.
In truth, a case could be made for most of the runners - but I do quite like the claims of A Plus Tard.
I’m obliviously not the only one, as he was installed early favourite - but in a race like this, most of the runners will get backed, so I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go off a decent price (at least 7/1).
He’s actually the youngest runner in the race, at just 5 - but he has plenty of experience, having run 5 times in his native France, before moving to Ireland.
He’s run 3 times for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland - and shaped with real promise on each occasion.
He finished runner up on his debut in a decent beginners chase at Gowran in November; and followed that up by taking a similar race at Naas, in December.
The form of that run now looks particularly strong, as he beat Duc de Genievres - and that one is third favourite for todays Arkle.
A Plus Tards most recent run, was when runner up to Winter Escape in a grade 3 at Punchestown in January.
To be honest, I’m a little surprised that he’s been given a rating, low enough to enable him to get into todays race - as it strikes me that he’s really a graded performer.
In truth, he may need to be just that, in order to win, as it’s s strong field - and a few of the other runners could also have plenty in hand of their mark.
That said, I suspect most of the main dangers will be Irish trained - as I can’t see a UK trained horse with the same potential as A Plus Tard.
Good Man Pat looks like the best of the UK runners to me - but I’m not sure he will relish soft ground.
Such conditions will hold no fears for Springtown Boy or Highway One o One - but they don’t strike me as being massively ahead of their marks…
The Irish runners are far more difficult to assess.
Tower Bridge looks to have been laid out for the race - though his stable/owner companion Shady Operator, also looks interesting.
Riders onthe Storm, has a similar profile to A Plus Tard (without looking quite as good !); whilst Ben Dundee, is one who I could see running well, at a price.
It’s certainly not a race where you can be dogmatic.
However, A Plus Tard has a near flawless profile - and massive scope.
He’s a deserving favourite - and I hope he can come home in front.

5:30

If the rain does materialise in the expected quantities, then this could end up a war…
That’s not going to suit OK Corral - who is probably the best horse in the race.
He’s also got the best jockey in the race (Derek O Connor) - and is owned by JP Mcmanus, who is particularly keen to win the race.
He is not taken on lightly - but his stablemate, Chef des Obeaux, could be worth a small play against him.
Unlike OK Corral, Chef des Obeaux will relish any rain - and whilst he’s not yet shown himself as good as OK Corral over fences, he was of a similar ability of hurdles.
In fact, when the 2 of them contested last seasons Albert Bartlett, Chef des Obeaux was sent off a 6/1 shot - with OK Corral at 16/1.
Chef des Obeaux didn’t get home that day - and also finished behind OK Corral at Aintree, but he was only 6 at the time, so maybe it was all a bit much for him…
He’s run 3 times over fences this season - and whilst he’s not yet set the world alight, there has been steady improvement.
A debut third at Uttoxeter, was followed by an unseat when still in contention at Chepstow - and then a hard fought win at the same course, 3 weeks ago.
That last run showed that Chef des Obeauxs strength is his stamina - and I can see that coming in very handy today !
In truth, this is not a race where you could feel overly confident about any of the runners,
With the doubts over OK Corral, Ballyward and Discorama look like the 2 to beat - but they hardly set an insurmountable standard.
Atalanta Ablaze is theoretically interesting, with her mares allowance; whilst I could see Whisperinthebreeze running very well for a chunk of the race - but then not quite getting home…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.






Tips

Chel 2:10 Kalashnikov 1pt win 9/1
Chel 2:50 Minella Rocco 1pt win 9/1
Chel 4:10 Momella 0.5pt win 20/1
Chel 4:50 A Plus Tard 1pt win 7/1
Chel 5:30 Chef des Obeaux 0.5pt win 20/1

Mentions

Chel 1:30 Angel Breath (O )
Chel 3:30 Buveur D’Air (O )

Dobbers

Chel 5:30 Whisperinthebreeze

Review of the day

When I drew comparisons this morning, between Saint Leo and Overtown Express - I didn’t realise how similar things were going to end up !

I tipped Overtown Express a couple of weeks ago at Chepstow and he looked to have his race under control, leaving the back - only for things to go horribly wrong at the first fence in the home straight…

It was exactly the same scenario with Saint Leo at Ayr this afternoon, as he was still tanking, approaching the fourth last at Ayr (touched 1.7 in-running).

He’d been so slick over the previous fences, that even a mistake looked unlikely - but worse than that, he fell.

Thankfully, unlike Overtown Express, he lived to fight another day - but from a P&L perspective, it was the same outcome.
What looked like being a nice profit, ended up a 2pt loss :(

Thankfully, the blow had already been softened by Malaya, the only other tip on the day.

In truth, she too could have ended up on the floor, as she made a dreadful mistake at the second last hurdle.

I doubt many horses would have won after that, but Harry Cobden gathered her together, gave her a few moments to recover - and then launched at attack on Monsieur Lecoq.

In fairness, he didn’t go down without a fight - but Malaya clearly had a fair bit in hand of her mark, as ultimately she won quite comfortably.

The only surprising aspect, was the price drift to an SP of 7/1 (10 on BF) - showing once again, that the price shouldn’t be chased down in the these competitive big field handicaps (as someone wants to back most of the runners !).

As for the days Mentions:
Then Champagne Well ran a cracker to finish third in the NH novice handicap hurdle final, at Sandown.
It would have been disappointing to tip him (to win) and not collect (which would have been the case, if I had got involved with the race).
By contrast, Mystic Dreamer ran disappointingly in the bumper - seemingly not appreciating the very soft ground: whilst Ami Desbois was similarly disappointing in the handicap chase.
There was no obvious excuse for his below par run - though he did have a tough race last time, and was running from a higher mark today.
It’s all about getting on them when they are at their peak - not a race too soon - or too late !
I think One for Harry was close to his peak today - but the ground wasn’t soft enough for him.
He ran an honest race to finish fourth - and dropped a few more pounds, if he gets heavy ground next time, then there could still be another win in him…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 9th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: at Sandown, Ayr and Hereford in the UK - plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

There has been some serous rain around this week…
After months of virtual draught, no one can say it wasn’t due - or indeed needed - but the timing is poor.

When it rains on race day - or the evening before - it’s nearly impossible to judge the effect on the ground, until it is too late.

In fairness, we do have a reasonable idea of the impact it’s had on the Sandown going - because they raced there yesterday and it looked pretty holding.

However, relatively speaking, we’re in the dark with regard to the other 3 tracks - and of course, to Cheltenham..!

Expect me to be going on about it quite a bit for the next week or so - apologies in advance :)

As for today: then quality action is thin on the ground.

The days feature meeting takes place as Sandown: but a card built around a bumper and 2 ferocious handicaps, is unlikely to be particularly punter friendly !

I’ve only managed to find one tip there…

With no realistic options at Hereford or Gowran, the only other place for me to look was Ayr - and I managed to find a second tip there.

It’s not much of a haul for a Saturday - but, as you are all aware, it’s really not a normal Saturday !

If one of the tips can manage to come home in front, I’m sure you’ll be happy enough.

Here’s the rationale behind them - plus my thoughts on the days other main races…


Sandown

1:50

Whilst there was a temptation to get involved with this race, the reality is: there are 18 unexposed runners - virtually all with significant scope for improvement - and ultimately, almost any result is possible !
There will be enough handicaps like that next week, without me needing to take on one today !
For what it’s worth, the 3 I was most interested in, were Garretstown, Champagne Well and Golden Whiskey.
Garretstown looks like a very classy horse - though whether he will be suited by bottom-less conditions, is a different matter.
I don’t think the ground will worry Golden Whiskey - but he looks very immature, so both the nature of the race and the Sandown hill, could cause him a problem.
By default, Champagne Well is the one of greatest interest - and he’s fairly priced at 16/1 - but there are just too many dangers in the race, for me to want to tip him…
I could easily list half a dozen more, who could be of interest - but even then, I wouldn’t be confident I would have included the winner !
It should be a fascinating race to watch - and many of the runners will be worth following over fences, next season - but it’s not really a (serious) betting contest…

2:25

I said last Saturday, when I tipped Papagana, that if I had been up to date with the eye catchers in the forum, she would have been one - and the same is true of Malaya, today…
In truth, that’s not that big a statement, as she caught the eye of many, with her last time out run behind Brio Conte (yet another eye catcher !).
That was in a 2m4f handicap at Ascot, and Malaya travelled really strongly through the race - but was put under minimal pressure in the closing stages.
To an extent, that was under-standable. She had fallen on her 2 previous outings and I’m sure that Harry Cobden didn’t want to put her on the floor again, and completely shatter her confidence.
Her therefore allowed her to pop the final 2 hurdles and jog home !
She still managed to finish fourth - beaten just over 5 lengths - and it’s a little surprising that the handicapper reacted by dropping her rating by a pound.
In truth, she was well handicapped even before he did that.
She comfortably beat Eragon de Chanay at Ascot last March - and that one is now 9lb higher.
Malaya meanwhile, runs from a mark just 3lb higher today…
After the Ascot win, her next 2 runs were at Grade 1 level - suggesting Paul Nichols thinks quite a bit of her !
I don’t think she’ll have an issue with todays ground - or dropping back to 2 miles.
She faces some decent opponents - but you’d expect that in a £75K race.
Call me Lord is the one I fear most - because he’s potentially a graded performer in a handicap. He is also a Sandown specialist - who relishes heavy ground !
On the flip side, he has to give nearly 2 stone to Malaya - and 2 miles is now arguably on the short side for him (he ran over 3 miles, last time out).
Chti Balco is also of moderate interest, at a big price - but more from a back to lay in-running perspective (he’s well handicapped - but is also very exposed).

3:00

It’s very unusual (almost unique !) to have a bumper as a feature race on a Saturday card - particularly, one restricted to mares !
Even more than the 1:50 race, this isn’t a contest you can really bet in - because most of the runners have huge scope for improvement.
Silver Forever and Whitehotchillifilli head the market - and that may well be correct.
However, it was hard not to be taken by the debut effort of Mystic Dreamer, behind the former, at Ascot - and even on worse terms today, she holds some appeal at around 8/1.
Eyes Right finished fourth in the same race - and whilst on the book, she shouldn’t be able to reverse the form, she is the youngest runner in the field (and therefore the one with the most potential for improvement).
That said, I’m not convinced that she will relish very soft ground…
Clearly, it has to be a watching race (officially speaking) - with Mystic Dreamer probably providing the best option for those who would like a small involvement.

3:35

I tipped Ami Desbois when he was narrowly touched off over course and distance, last time out - and I considered tipping him again today…
Certainly, I don’t think he is badly handicapped - even off a 4lb higher mark - and he will have no issue with todays conditions.
This is also a drop in class - and he’s a big enough horse to cope with a weight imposition of 11st13lb….
The issue is simply the opposition: Whilst I expect Ami Desbois to run well, I have a feeling that one of his opponents will beat him.
The trouble is, I can’t figure out which one !
Commodore is the obvious one, for Venetia - but it might not be him…
I could make half (or at least quarter !) cases for at least 4 of the runners - and that stops me from supporting Ami Desbois.
I’m sure he will run his race - and at 5/1, he would be a good EW ‘bet to nothing’, if you like that kind of thing.
However, officially speaking, he’s just a Mention…


Ayr

3:20

Saint Leo has only run twice in the UK - and he has caught my eye both times…
The first occasion, was his debut at Carlisle, back in November.
I picked him out in the daily write-up that day, as a horse to be interested in this season - and he showed sufficient in that race, to ensure he remained firmly on my radar.
His next run - and only subsequent one - was in the Castleford chase at Wetherby, on Boxing day.
He travelled trough that race like a class horse - just lacking the change of pace to mount a big challenge.
I’m sure he will be at his peak today - and he has been dropped to a mark of 135 (from an initial mark 10lb higher), which seems very fair.
I think his key requirement is soft ground - and a fast pace - and he should get both this afternoon…
I could tell you that the likes of Granville Island, Forest des Aigles and Clan Legend, will find the trip too short; whilst Charmant has possibly passed his peak.
Tontos Spirit and Treshnish should run their races - but I’ll be staggered if they can cope with Saint Leo, if he’s as good as I think.
I felt similarly about Overland Express a few weeks back - and tragedy struck for him, just as he was about to mount his challenge.
Nothing is every guaranteed in this game - but all thing being equal, I’ll be extremely disappointed if Saint Leo doesn’t win this afternoon.

4:30

If I could be sure that the ground at Ayr was going to be heavy, I would tip One for Harry in this.
However, the official description is currently ‘soft’ - and whilst I believe there is rain around - and so it might well get worse, I would be guessing…
If you are watching and the ground does look to be desperate, then One for Harry will be worthy of support.
Certainly he is now on a very competitive handicap mark - and the booking of Danny McMenamin, to take off a further 7lb, just adds to his appeal.
It’s the right trip - and the course is fine - but up against some tough rivals - now that he’s at the veteran stage, he will need heavy ground to swing things in his favour…
Of his rivals, then Buster Valentine and Better Getalong, look the 2 most likely to take advantage, if One for Harry doesn’t get ideal conditions.
I wouldn’t particularly want to split the pair, as the former is nearly impossible to get a proper handle on….


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.






Tips

Sand 2:25 Malaya 1pt win 11/2
Ayr 3:20 Saint Leo 2pt win 4/1

Mentions

Sand 1:50 Champagne Well (O )
Sand 3:00 Mystic Dancer (S )
Sand 3:35 Ami Desbois (O )
Ayr 4:30 One for Harry (C )

Dobbers

Sand 2:25 Chti Balco

Review of the day

It ended up a bit of a disappointing afternoon - despite me tipping a winner !

That was because the winner was the shortest price selection on the day - and the winnings from her, didn’t cover the losses from the other tips.

In truth though, that wasn’t the disappointing aspect…

As always, I spent a lot of time yesterday studying the form for the feature races - and as those who read the write-up will testify, I was in the right ball park for just about every race.

However, they were all competitive contests - and rather than spreading the risk a little, I put all of my eggs in one basket for each of the races - and generally, picked the wrong basket !

In my defence it’s not always easy to put up the right horses at the time I tip, as I demand some margin in the price - and at 9:00, that’s often not there…

A perfect example of that, was the handicap hurdle at Newbury.

I was interested in Flying Tiger and Crooks Peak in that particular race.
Despite being heavily backed overnight, Flying Tiger was still an 8/1 shot this morning, which I considered acceptable: whereas Crooks Peak was a 3/1 shot, which I didn’t !

However, come the off, Flying Tiger had been backed in to a credibly believable 7/2 - and on the back of that, Crooks Peak had drifted out to 11/2.

At those prices, the tips would have been different - but that was never an option for me…

As it transpired, both horses travelled very strongly through the race - and looked to have it between them approaching the final flight.
However, Flying Tiger got the hurdle all wrong - and lost his momentum, whereas Crooks Peak jumped it well and battled on for a tenacious win…

My ‘short list’ would also have hit on the winner of the 2 previous Newbury races - but again, I opted for just one bite of the cherry.

In the veterans race, I opted for what proved to be another very well backed horse, in the shape of Shanroe Santos.
However, he didn’t have the back class of either Theatre Guide or Caroles Destrier - and when the former blew a winning chance with a dreadful mistake at the last, the latter took advantage…

In the next race I went with Nightfly but she never featured - whilst the 3 'dangers', Valdez, Javert and San Bendito filled 3 of the first 4 places, with the last named coming home in front…

In fairness, I didn’t short-list the winner of the Newbury opener, as I only nominated Betameche as a danger to Ritual of Senses = and he finished second.

Ritual of Senses himself, travelled really strongly to the third last - but then didn’t get home (suggesting that he is not fully recovered from whatever kept him off the course for a couple of years).

Over at Doncaster, Brian Boranha race a sound race in the feature Grimthorpe chase - but lacked a bit of pace when the tempo quickened…
I have no ‘complaints’ about him !

And finally, there was the day’s winner !

Papagana also lacks pace - but when you are being stepped up in trip and there is a sound gallop, that doesn’t tend to matter too much.

She was never travelling particularly well - but whilst she was in touch, I knew that she had a good chance.
And sure enough, as one by one, her rivals also came under pressure, she kept on responding and it soon became clear that she was going to take a bit of beating.

Danse Idol tried to challenge after the last - but Papagana always had her measure and ultimately was a comfortable winner.

At least her win saved the day from being a complete write-off - as I honestly don’t think that would have been deserved…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Mar 2nd

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK - plus Navan in Ireland.

As I inferred in the ‘Plans for the weekend’ email, there are no really big races taking place - they are all on hold until Cheltenham !

However, there are some reasonable races, which provide some decent betting opportunities - and we all like those !

The fields are relatively small at both Doncaster and Kelso (particularly, the latter - who understandably feel aggrieved with field sizes, considering the prize money on offer) and so consequently, most of the best bets are on the Newbury card.

I’ve found tips in all the big races there - plus a couple more at Doncaster.
Here is the rationale behind them…


Newbury

1:30

The presence of Betameche makes this a tough race to get involved with…
The race is for ‘seniors’ (horses of 8 and older) - the idea being that it gives a chance to exposed horses, who keep on getting beaten by unexposed ones !
Betameche is 8 - but he’s only 5 times in his life - and just 3 times over hurdles.
More than that, on his second bumper run, he comfortably beat Sam Spinner and Keeper Hill.
Those 2 are now rated 155 and 144 respectively - and whilst the form can’t be taken literally, it does suggest that Betameche could be thrown in today off a mark of 124 !
That mark is a guess from the assessor, based on his 3 hurdle runs - but there has to be a distance chance, he’s seriously under-estimated the horse…
The trouble is, the betting public haven’t - and a price of 15/8 in a 12 runner handicap, makes no appeal…
Ritual of Senses doesn’t have a lot more experience than Betameche - and he too could prove to be a good deal better than his current mark.
He showed promise as a novice and his fourth in the Gerry Fieldon hurdle, 2 seasons back, is good form.
However, he only ran once more that season - and then wasn’t seen until re-appearing at Warwick, this January.
He ran really well that day, in a Pertemps qualifier, over a 3 mile trip.
It was only in the final half mile of the race that he backed out of things - which was understandable considering his long absence.
The handicapper has dropped him 5lb for that run - and he is cut back in trip by half a mile.
He also sports first time blinkers - and Sam TD takes over in the saddle, from a 7lb claimer…
I’m pretty sure connections will be going for it today - the trouble is, they may have bumped into one, in Betameche !
Despite that, I think it is worth getting involved with the race.
It lacks depth - as there really are only 2 or 3 others, which I could be interested in (A Hares Breath and Nesterenko main amongst them).
I considered saving stakes on Betameche - but 15/8 is too short (though I’m not entirely convinced he will drift !).
Therefore I opted for Ritual of Senses EW.
If he wins - great: if he places - we still make a tiny profit…

2:05

I do love the veterans races - though they are never easy to read…
Generally, you have to balance falling handicap marks - with diminishing ability - and that’s not an easy thing to do !
10 year olds tend to do well in these races - mainly because they have only just reached the veteran stage - and there are 5 of that age group in this particular contest.
However, 3 of the 5 are making their seasonal debut - and at this point in the season, that suggests there have been issues.
The other 2 are Perform and Shanroe Santos - and I’m quite keen on the chances of the latter…
He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Cheltenham, when chasing home the very well handicapped, Beware the Bear.
He didn’t run as well on his latest outing at Sandown - but I don’t think conditions  suited him, that day.
On the plus side, he was dropped 2lb for the run - and that means he competes today off a mark of 135 - just 3lb higher than the one he won from at Fontwell in November.
More than that, Maxime Tissier takes over in the saddle and claims 5lb - so he is arguably back to a winning mark…
I have a slight concern that he may want more of a stamina test than he will get this afternoon - but the presence of Milansbar, will hopefully ensure the race is run at a good pace.
If it is, then I think Shanroe Santos will go very close…
Of the others, then you have to be fearful of both Caroles Destrier and Theatre Guide.
Both have sufficient back class to win - and have proved themselves very effective at todays course and on decent ground.
The Last Samurai is another who could be very dangerous - though he too, has been well found in the market…

2:40

I don’t think this race is as competitive as the numbers - and prize money - would suggest…
On initial viewing, I struggled to see past Happy Diva - though I could also make half cases for Valdez, Javert and San Benedito.
The trouble is, backing something at 5/1 in a 16 runner handicap, goes against the grain - particularly when I have a slight concern that the horse in question, may have gone past its peak for the season…
Fortunately, delving deeper into the form book, revealed Nightfly - and not only do I think she should be at her peak today, she is also 4 times the price of Happy Diva !
The 2 horses met last time in a conditions race, at Huntingdon.
Happy Diva was much better suited by the race conditions - and ended up a convincing winner.
However, Nightfly ran really well to finish fourth.
She was beaten 9 lengths that day - but gets a 10lb weight pull today, so the two of them should finish almost along side each other this afternoon.
More than that, I think Nightfly can improve for that run (it was her first for 2 months), whereas it struck me that Happy Diva was producing a peak performance.
Whatever, at the respective prices, it’s not hard to see where the value lies !
I do have a slight concern about Nightfly seeing out the trip - so I think it makes sense to back her EW.
That said, I think she is a really good bet - win, lose or draw !

3:10

I’m not in the habit of tipping horses that halve in price over-night - but I’ve made an exception with Flying Tiger !
As regular readers will know, I’m quite a fan of the horse: I’ve tipped him a few times over the seasons (at least 3 !) - and he’s also been an official eye catcher once or twice !
Suffice to say, he’s a horse I know very well - and he’s a horse who has more than enough ability to win a race such as this…
In pure handicapping terms, that’s obvious, as he runs today from a mark 1lb lower than when he won the 2017 Fred Winter hurdle, at the Cheltenham festival.
More than that, I suspect he ‘s a better horse now - he’s just become very adept at finding ways to lose !
It doesn’t help, that he pulls a lot - so he needs a good pace to chase (which hopefully he will get in todays big field).
He also needs to be ridden with restraint - and that can make him a hostage to fortune.
He’s been badly hampered and unseated on 2 of his last 3 runs (which is very bad luck !).
The wide open spaces and long straight at Newbury, should help in him that regard.
I also think that he will be massively helped by having a professional jockey on board.
I’m a big fan of conditionals - as generally, the weight allowance they get, more than offsets the reduction in ability/experience - but I think Flying Tiger needs stronger handling than most conditionals are capable of…
He’s the kind of horse that will always come with risks - but I think all of the risks have been managed as well as they can be, today…
Last nights 16/1 was a crazy price - this mornings 8/1 was much nearer the mark.
Crooks Peak is the main worry - because he has unlimited potential.
That said, he will need to be pretty good to beat Flying Tiger, if luck smiles on him this afternoon…


Doncaster

3:00

Even before this mornings 2 withdrawals, this looked a 2 horse race, between Danse Idol and Papagarna…
On official ratings, Bonza Girl also has a chance - but she is officially rated 5lb inferior to the main 2 - and her jockey, Rex Dingle, is unable to claim his 5lb allowance.
In small field races, jockeyship can be crucial, so that 5lb is likely to be warranted in this particular contest…
Danse Idol and Papagana won’t lack any assistance from the saddle, so it should really come down to which is the better horse.
And as they have met on their last 2 runs - that should be a relatively easy one to answer.
Danse Idol has come out on top, both times - and with the weights the same today, it’s reasonable to think that will again be the outcome.
However…
The margin between the 2 horses was less last time, than it was when they first met - suggesting that Papagarna is improving slightly faster.
More importantly, Papagarna has been staying on strongly at the end of both races - whilst the shorter trip has looked to be as far as Danse Idol wants to go…
They step up in trip by half a mile this afternoon - and I that could therefore prove crucial…
Of course, it will rely on there being a reasonable pace in the race, enabling  Papagarnas apparently superior stamina to come into effect - and unfortunately that’s not guaranteed (and the NRs haven’t helped).
That said, Leighton Aspell is a shrewd enough jockey - and I’m sure he will be aware of the situation.
Hopefully, one of the other 3 runners will provide some pace to the race - but if they don’t he will hopefully take the initiative.
Provided the race is a true test, then I think Papagarna can come out on top.

3:35

Whilst numerically, there is a disappointing turnout for this race - it is still quite an intriguing puzzle…
A case can be made for all 7 of the runners - and at the odds, I think Brian Boranha is worthy of modest support.
He’s been on a steady improve since switching to fences, 18 months ago - and put up his most impressive performance to date, when winning the Durham National at Sedgefield back on October.
He was then given 3 months off, before returning in the Sky Bet chase, at Doncaster in January.
That was a step up in grade for him - but he travelled through the race in a manner which suggested he was more than up to the job.
In fact, on the turn in, he looked just about the most likely winner - but he didn’t get home…
The trip can’t have been the issue (his previous win was over 5 furlongs further) - so the logical assumption is that he needed the run.
The handicapper has dropped him 2lb, which means he meets the race favourite that day, Dingo Dollar, on improved terms (despite travelling all over him, turning in).
In fairness, Dingo Dollar didn’t seem to run his race that day - and he would be a big danger based on his run in the Hennessey.
It’s also easy enough to make a case for Rockys Treasure, Looking Well and Barney Dwan - though equally, non are bomb proof…
At the end of the day, it comes down to price - and Brian Boranha looks over-priced at around 14/1.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.






Tips

Newb 1:30 Ritual of Senses 0.5pt EW 8/1
Newb 2:05 Shanroe Santos 1pt win 11/1
Newb 2:40 Nightfly 0.5pt EW 20/1
Newb 3:10 Flying Tiger 1pt win 8/1
Donc 3:00 Papagana 1pt win 5/2
Donc 3:35 Brian Boranha 0.5pt win 16/1

Mentions

None

Review of the day

As I said yesterday, February has been a bit of a struggle (mainly due to reasons out of my control), so it was nice to finish it with a winner.

More than that, the victory of Vision des Flos meant that all 4 months so far this season, have ended in profit.

In truth, I don’t worry too much about monthly figures (there is far too much variability for them to have significant meaning), but it does show that performance has been consistently good.

Now I just need to nail March, in order to complete the nap hand ! (no pressure !)

In terms of the performance of Vision des Flos, then it really couldn’t have gone much better…

He travelled like a dream throughout the race - and from some way out, looked by far the most likely winner.

I did briefly think that Lil Rockerfeller might be tough to pass up the home straight - but Rocky wouldn’t do that to TVB :-)

If the Cap Fits was gaining on Vision Des Flos after the last - but in truth, that may have been because the winner was idling.

If I’m honest, I’d earmarked Vision des Flos for the Coral cup at Cheltenham - but I suspect todays win will scupper that idea.
Still, a bird in the hand…

The opposite is true for Shantou Flyer - as he remains very much in the bush !
However, the important thing is that he is still in the bush - as based on his last run, that looked far from guaranteed.

He looked much better today though.
His jumping wasn’t flawless - but he was given a good test by Three faces West - and Southfield Vic got the run of the race - yet Shantou Flyer still proved different class.

Assuming Richard Hobson can get him spot on for the big race in just over 2 weeks time, then I think he will take all the beating.
He was cut to 7/1 post race - so our 14/1 now looks like a decent bet…

There were also 2 Mentions running on the day, and they had mixed fortunes.

Uisce Beatha was never really sighted in the novice chase - so much for the form book !
Chosen Mate on the hand, won the grade 2 novice hurdle.
He did so by only the minimum of margins - though I suspect he is better than the result suggests.

So that’s it for another month - and now it’s just 2 weekends to Cheltenham !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Feb 24th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Fontwell and Carlise in the UK - plus Naas in Ireland.

As I inferred in Fridays ‘Plans for the weekend ‘ email, it’s not exactly the best Sundays racing ever staged !

Quality races are thin on the ground - with one notable exception: the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell Park.
It’s the courses main race of the season - and they’ve been rewarded with an excellent field.

Aside from that, there are a couple of class 3 races in the UK; and a couple of uncompetitive graded races at Naas.
Not really action that you can get stuck in to !

Despite that, I’ve manage to find a tip - in the big race - and I also have some views on the other main races on the afternoon.

Here are my thoughts…


Fontwell

2:50

This really is a cracking little race…
The absence of Sussex Ranger means that only 6 will go to post - but all 6 have got a chance of some sort (and that includes the outsider, Vive le Roi).
On official ratings, there is little between the top 5 in the betting - and that’s how I would see it.
However, Old Guard and Lil Rockerfeller are far more exposed than their 3 main rivals - and therefore have less scope for improvement.
As a consequence, I am inclined to focus on the other 3.
However, even narrowing it down to 3, doesn’t make it easy…
If the Cap Fits is officially the best horse in the race - but at todays weights, he only has 1 pound in hand of both Ballymoy and Vision des Flos.
All 3 horses should be perfectly suited by the test, so at a price of 7/4, If the Cap Fits holds limited appeal…
Similarly, choosing between Ballymoy and Vision des Flos is mainly a ‘value’ exercise.
I could make a decent case for them both - but with Ballymoy priced at 7/2 and Vision des Flos 11/2, choosing became easier…
From a form perspective, I think Vision des Flos has a very good chance.
He was a high class novice hurdler last season, when he finished runner up in Grade 1 events, at both the Aintree and Punchestown festivals.
He was tried over fences, first time out this season - but unshipped his jockey and that plan was promptly put on hold !
He was a little disappointing on his next 3 starts - but then under-went wind surgery.
That seemed to have a positive effect, as on his next run, he gave Buveur D’air a real scare at Sandown - and then last weekend, lost out in a driving finish to the Kingwell hurdle at Wincanton.
Those last 2 runs, are good form, in the context of todays race - and I expect stepping up by half a mile in trip, will see Vision des Flos perform even better.
Whether it will be good enough to get him home in front, only time will tell.
However, it definitely puts him right in the mix - and his early price under-estimated his chance.
Fingers crossed that he can turn theoretical value in to actual profit !!

4:25

Just a few quick words on this race, as it sees Shantou Flyer trying to secure his place in the field for the Foxhunters chase at the Cheltenham festival.

I tipped him for that race a couple of weeks ago - just before he ran in a similar event to todays, at Kelso.
It was a slightly risky tip, in that he needed to finish in the first 2 that day - and he has to again today - just to qualify to run at Cheltenham !
He managed to get the job done at Kelso - but it was far more of a struggle than I expected (and would have liked !).
That tempers my enthusiasm for him a little - though in fairness, we don’t know how fit he was that day.
In truth, we don’t even know how fit he will be today.
My hope is that connections are letting him run himself into top shape, on the racecourse, rather than hard training him hard, at home.
Whatever, he really needs to deliver the goods today - as time is running out (though he is also declared to run at Leicester on Tuesday and Ludlow on Thursday - presumably in case anything goes wrong today).
If he’s anywhere near last seasons best, he will hack up today: however, if he’s in similar form to at Kelso, Southfield Vic and Three Faces West are a couple of potentially dangerous rivals.
Lets hope it’s the former situation !


Naas

2:30

If I was on top of the my eye-catcher list in the forum, Impact Factor would feature in it…
He caught my eye on his most recent run, a fortnight ago, at Punchestown.
He was a short priced favourite that day, but despite finishing fast, he couldn’t reel in Riders onthe Storm over a 2 mile trip, and was beaten just over a length.
Despite the defeat, that was a decent effort, and Impact Factor looks sure to benefit from todays step up in trip.
It’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 134 is generous - but it seems fair.
This is a competitive looking race - but I could have been very interested in him, if it weren’t for the present of Uisce Beatha…
That one beat Impactor Factor on his most recent outing (early in January) - and yet is 8lb better off at the weights today.
That’s down to Impact Factor's subsequent runs - but unless he’s improved by nearly a stone, he’s going to struggle to beat Uisce Beatha today.
The longer trip could be a factor - but in truth, it was Uisce Beatha who looked the more likely of the pair to appreciate stepping up in distance…
Uisce Beatha was priced up shorter than Impact Factor in the early betting - but he has now drifted - whilst Impact Factor has shortened.
In fact, it has reached the point where I’m very tempted to take a risk on Uisce Beatha.
The only issue is, everyone can see what I can see, so you have to be a little suspicious of the drift.
Furthermore, Uisce Beatha is owned by JP McManus, so there is always the possibility he is being readied for another day.
With a straight bat, Uisce Beatha is a bet at 7/1 - however, I’m going to resist (officially speaking !).

3:00

There are a couple of graded events on the Naas card - and this is the more appealing one, from a betting perspective - though that doesn’t say a lot !

Chosen Mate heads the betting on the back of his runner up placing in a listed event at Punchestown a fortnight ago - and I suspect he will take a good deal of beating this afternoon.
Certainly,third favourite, Prince D’Aubrelle, will have his work cut out to beat him, as he too ran in the Punchestown race and finished over 20 lengthens behind, Chosen Mate.
As it was his first run of the season, he may well improve for it - but he’ll need to !
Second favourite, Jetez, can’t be quite so easily dismissed - but he appears to have found his level, at a mark in the mid 130s - and that really shouldn’t be good enough to win a grade 2 event.
Milan Native and Hannon are both totally unexposed, so have scope for significant improvement.
However, that will be required if they are going to trouble Chosen Mate…
I wouldn’t consider supporting Chosen Mate at 6/5 - but equally, I’m struggling to find anything to oppose him with.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.





Tips

Font 2:50 Vision des Flos 1pt win 11/2

Mentions

Naas 2:30 Uisce Beatha (S )
Naas 3:00 Chosen Mate (P )