I had a feeling after the very first race today, that it was going to be one
of those days - and that’s pretty much how it worked out…
In fairness,
we’ve not had one for quite some time - so maybe it was due - but I still
find them incredibly frustrating !
In the opening race, I tipped the
Joseph O’Brien trained Fine Brunello.
As I said this morning, I slightly
preferred the chances of his stablemate, Fekir D’ourdries - but the price
had gone on him, by the time I was able to tip.
It is an ongoing
source of frustration, that I need the horses I fancy to be available at
decent prices, at 9:00 in the morning - and often that’s not the case (even
though they sometimes are - both before and
after, that time !).
I guess
it comes with the territory - but it certainly doesn’t make the job any
easier…
Anyway, Fine Brunello ran a huge race for a 25/1 shot - but
couldn’t peg back - you’ve guessed it, Fekir D’oudaries..!
I don't
suppose anyone had the forecast, did they ?!
The second tip to run was
Ballyhill - and he also ran well.
However, he couldn’t get to the spring
heeled Siruh du Lac.
Again, I could have been interested in the winner -
but he was 5/1 this morning - which was tight enough.
He drifted to
7/1 pre-race - and even his SP of 6/1 might possibly have tempted me in - if
it had been an option…
Hastrubal was the third tip to run - and the
biggest one of the day.
I was happy with price we could get on him this
morning - even if it didn’t last too long !
He was back out to 5/1 on
BF at the off, however - and ran really poorly…
I can’t offer an
explanation for his laboured effort.
His jumping was OK (if a little
ponderous) - but he just looked slow.
Disappointing stuff…
I was
also disappointed by the effort of Federici at Doncaster.
I didn’t
necessarily expect him to win (though with Dingo Dollars under-performing,
he should have stood a chance) - but I did expect him to go
close.
Instead, he gave away the outside to no-one - and was already
beaten, turning in…
Midnight Shadow was the final tip on the day -
but again there was no joy with him.
He ran reasonably well - but the
concern with him was his stamina and ultimately, it did look as if he failed
to stay the trip.
Paisley Park was the other horse of significant
interest in the race - and he came home an impressive winner.
However, he
was well backed to do so - which would have made it difficult to support him
(as it appeared a competitive race).
Just to add to the days frustration,
things panned out in a similar fashion for the
Mentions:
Spiritofthegames was backed in to favouritism - but couldn’t
get to original favourite, Kildisart (who had drifted out to a quite
appealing 9/2);
Terrefort looked sure to win the Cotswold chase - but
didn’t get home (which was what was supposed to happen to Frodon
!).
Birchdale was the sole winning Mention on the day - but he got a bit lucky as he appeared held by Brewinupastorm, when that one fell at the
last.
Whilst in the Cheltenham finale, Maquisard was also a faller - and Flashing the Steel couldn’t withstand the late challenge of Benny’s
Bridge…
We’ve not had many poor days this month - but today was one and I
didn’t enjoy it much.
I’ll certainly be looking to get back into the
winning groove, next weekend !
TVB.
Saturday, 26 January 2019
Daily write-up - Jan 26th
There are 4 NH meetings today: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK
- plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
It’s Festival trials day at Cheltenham - and although it’s questionable whether many of the races will actually have a major bearing on the Festival, most of them are decent contests.
The feature race at Doncaster is the Sky bet chase - and whilst a reasonable sized field will go to post for that, there is a lack of runners in most of the other races on the card.
The continued dry spell is the reason - and the water Doncaster put on the course earlier in the week, hasn’t persuaded many trainers to take a risk…
The days most competitive fields are at Uttoxeter - which also has the softest ground (coincidence ? I don’t think so !).
The issue there is the quality of the races - and consequently fragile markets…
All this said, I did expect to find a few more tips today, than I’ve been able.
Cheltenham was the obvious place to go looking - and whilst I eventually managed to find a three there, I did expect to find more.
I’ve also got one in the feature race at Doncaster - and another in a smaller race at Uttoxeter.
Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races…
Cheltenham
12:40
Joseph O’Brien sends 2 over for this Triumph hurdle trial and both look interesting…
In truth, Fakir D’oudaries probably looks the slightly more interesting - but the 12/1 he opened at yesterday, was 6/1 this morning and that is not a price to encourage taking a risk…
Fine Brunello on the other hand, has been relatively friendless in the market - and at a price of around 20/1, I think he is worth a speculative play…
He’s only run once for Joseph, at Limerick, over the Christmas period.
He was also relatively unfancied that day (SP 25/1) - but ran really well, to finish fourth behind his stablemate, Band of Outlaws.
He was staying on strongly in the closing stages, which should stand him in good for the stiffer test at Cheltenham this afternoon.
On form, he has a lot to do in todays race - but he has boundless scope for improvement and couldn’t have better connections (owned by JP McManus and ridden by Barry Geraghty).
1:15
This looks a really open race, in which all 8 runners can be given a chance of sorts…
I can understand Kildisart being favourite - but he doesn’t have a lot in hand of Azzerti on their Ascot run and 7/2 is too short for him…
I also think that 9/2 is too short for Enola Gay - it strikes me that the Venetia factor is being over played with this one…
If I had got involved with the race, it probably would have been with Spiritofthegames.
He finished last of 4 on his most recent run - but he was trying to give 12lb to La Bague au Roi and I doubt many horses could do that.
He’s been well backed this morning - which could be significant…
Of the outsiders, then I think First Drift is probably over-priced at 16/1 - but I suspect he will find a couple too good: whilst Onefortheroadtom is potentially the most interesting runner in the field - particularly if he comes in for market support (currently 12/1).
However, with it possible to construct cases for most of the runners - and no obvious significant margin with prices, this has to be a watching race.
1:50
This is another race where quite a few can be given a chance - however, I like the chances of Ballyhill best…
He won over course and distance just over a year ago, before losing his form.
However, he has bounced back this season and following a good run over hurdles at Bangor, hacked up in a fair chase at Aintree.
That saw his mark raised by 10lb - but he ran really well last time, off his new mark. That was in a similar race to todays and he finished third behind two very good rivals, in the shape of Aso and Happy Diva.
Aso is now being touted as a Ryanair candidate; whilst Happy Diva won a listed chase at Huntingdon, yesterday.
Ballyhill pulled clear with the pair of them - and I suspect it is strong form…
Understandably, his mark wasn’t dropped for that effort - but he does get 7lb claimer Jordan Nailer in the saddle this afternoon.
He takes over from Sam Twiston Davies - and whilst he might not yet be quite as good as STD, I doubt he is 7lb inferior.
As a result, it can be argued that the horse has effectively dropped in the handicap.
Using that argument - and against weaker opposition today, then I think he is worth siding with, at 7/1.
Of his opponents, then all of the main dangers look to be at towards the head of the market.
Janika will be hard to beat if building on a very promising UK debut: whilst Siruh du Lac and The Kings Writ both look progressive…
Brelan Das is the other one of interest - but again, he looks priced up about right.
2:25
This is a tough race to call, because there are question marks over all 6 runners:
Frodon may find the trip too far; whilst Elegant Escape may find it too short !
Terrefort would be the one to beat, on last seasons form - but ran inexplicably badly on his seasonal debut at Sandown.
Daryl Jacobs still prefers him to Valtor - so that hardly advertises the claims of the latter !
Minella Rocco is the theoretical bet in the race (best in at the weights and suited by the test) - but I suspect he will come on for the run; whilst Allyson Monterg really shouldn’t be good enough to win a race of this nature (unless the other 5 all under-perform).
If forced, I would probably side with Terrefort, in the hope that he can bounce back to form.
But at around 4/1, guessing has limited appeal…
3:00
This is the most disappointing race on the card - and it’s not one that I have a particularly strong view on…
Jarveys Plate sets the form standard on the back of his win over course and distance, on New Years day.
However, he is burdened with a 5lb penalty for that victory - and I suspect he will struggle to give weight to Birchdale and Brewinupastorm.
Of that pair, the latter has the best form - but the former strikes me as the most likely winner.
He is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has an embarrassment of riches in the novice hurdle department, this season.
Birchdale is clearly highly thought of - and also looked pretty good, when winning on his debt at Warwick.
You couldn't back him at 7/4, based on what he has achieved - but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either…
3:35
I was going to pass on this race - but the drift in the price of Midnight Shadow has changed my mind !
It’s an absolutely cracking race - and in truth, a chance can be given to at least half the field…
The old staying guard of Unowhatimeanharry and Lil Rockerfeller are taken on by new kids on the block, in the shape of Paisley Park and Midnight Shadow - but there is far more to the race than that !
Black Op reverts to hurdling after showing inaptitude for fences; whilst Aux Ptit Soins looks to build on a most promising seasonal debut, which suggested he could yet make it to the top.
When you add into the mix, the enigma that Sam Spinner is becoming - plus a couple of others who could be given half chances - then you have a race worth travelling a fair way to see…
Instinctively, I feel that Paisley Park and Midnight Shadow are the 2 to focus on - and that is why the drift in the price of Midnight Shadow has enticed me in.
The doubt with him is the trip - but if he does stay he could prove hard to beat.
Certainly, he has looked very strong in the finish on his 2 most recent runs - and they were both over 2m4f.
He has to tackle half a mile further today - but I think there is as much chance that he will improve for the trip, as there is of him not staying…
The decent ground will help - and he showed last time that the Cheltenham hill holds no fears for him.
It’s an open race for sure - but I think he has a good chance - and his current odds now under-estimate that chance.
4:10
I did intend to get involved with this race - but the two horses I was considering siding with, were well backed early and any margin in their prices, evaporated…
I think that Flash the Steel is the most likely race winner.
He did very well to win last time at Doncaster, rallying, having been headed on the run to the last.
He will be well suited by todays stiffer track - and as that was his first run in a handicap - and only his third over hurdles - he’s likely to have plenty of scope for improvement.
Certainly, it’s not hard to think that he could end up a fair bit better than his current rating of 125…
The issue is a price of 10/3, which leaves no margin for error…
Maquisard is the other one I was interested in - and at a double figure price I would have taken a risk on him.
He was 11/1 early - but I suspect he was tipped by someone just after 8:00 - and the 8/1 now available, has no margin in it…
I think he will run well - and should go close - though I have a slight concern about his ability to get up the Cheltenham hill (particularly if there is any rain).
In truth, it’s not just a 2 horse race - which is why chasing a price down, has no appeal.
If either one drifts near the off (I’ll be targeting 5/1 and 10/1), then I’ll get involved - otherwise, I’ll just watch…
Doncaster
3:15
I wouldn’t normally side with a relatively exposed 10 year old in a race of this nature - but it’s hard to ignore the claims of Federici…
He finished a close up fifth in the corresponding race last season - and runs today off a pound lower mark.
He wore blinkers for the first time that day and they possibly caused him to run a little too freely. They are back on today - but he should be more used to them by now, so their impact should be slightly less.
He was without them when he made his seasonal debut in the Becher chase at Aintree, last month,.
He still ran really well, to finish fifth - and it strikes me as significant, that they are re-applied today.
There can be absolutely no dounbt that connections would love to win todays race: not just for the prize money - but also because it would probably result in a ratings rise which would give him a chance of gettign into the Grand National.
With Brian Hughes in the saddle, I’m sure the horse will be giving it everything…
Whether that will be enough to get him home in front, remains to be seen.
Dingo Dollars strikes me as a very solid favourite - and if his price was a little bigger, I would at least be saving on him.
His price has drifted a bit (9/4 out to 3/1) - but I would want at least 7/2 to justify supporting him.
Maybe that will happen as the off approaches and you can all get him on side too - but for official purposes it’s down to Federici !
Uttoxeter
2:15
There is some great racing at Cheltenham this afternoon - but it is very competitive (as you would expect) and there is little doubt in my mind, that Hastrubal is the best bet of the day…
Some of you might find that strange, as he’s a 10 race maiden, who is making his fencing debut - but I never let those kind of details put me off !
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Bangor, when he ran really well to finsih second behind the progressive Eric le Rouge.
As that was his first run for 18 months, I thought there was a chance he might ‘bounce’ next time - but instead, he ran just as well, when again finishing second to a progressive horse at Warwick.
On his most recent outing, I expected him to win - but yet again, he could only finish second (though this time it was behind a horse returning to form).
Despite 3 seconds in a row, I don’t think there is anything wrong with Hastrubals attitude.
I just think he’s a bit one paced - and what he really needs is a trip in soft ground (which is what he gets this afternoon).
Whilst in theory, the fact he is tackling fences makes him risky - he looks like a chaser to me - and the vast majority of Henry Dalys horses improve for a fence.
I’m absolutely convinced that he is far better than his current rating of 114 - and hopefully this afternoon, he will start to demonstrate that.
In terms of dangers: then if he jumps round cleanly and is as good as I think, I’ll be surprised if anything in the field can beat him.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 12:40 Fine Brunello 0.5pt win 22/1
Chel 1:50 Ballyhill 1pt win 7/1
Chel 3:35 Midnight Shadow 0.5pt win 8/1
Donc 3:15 Federici 0.5pt win 11/1
Uttox 2:15 Hastrubal 1.5pt win 11/2
Mentions
Chel 1:15 Spiritofthegames (O )
Chel 2:25 Terrefort (S )
Chel 3:00 Birchdale (P )
Chel 4:10 Flashing the Steel (P ) & Marqusard (C )
It’s Festival trials day at Cheltenham - and although it’s questionable whether many of the races will actually have a major bearing on the Festival, most of them are decent contests.
The feature race at Doncaster is the Sky bet chase - and whilst a reasonable sized field will go to post for that, there is a lack of runners in most of the other races on the card.
The continued dry spell is the reason - and the water Doncaster put on the course earlier in the week, hasn’t persuaded many trainers to take a risk…
The days most competitive fields are at Uttoxeter - which also has the softest ground (coincidence ? I don’t think so !).
The issue there is the quality of the races - and consequently fragile markets…
All this said, I did expect to find a few more tips today, than I’ve been able.
Cheltenham was the obvious place to go looking - and whilst I eventually managed to find a three there, I did expect to find more.
I’ve also got one in the feature race at Doncaster - and another in a smaller race at Uttoxeter.
Here is the rationale behind the tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big races…
Cheltenham
12:40
Joseph O’Brien sends 2 over for this Triumph hurdle trial and both look interesting…
In truth, Fakir D’oudaries probably looks the slightly more interesting - but the 12/1 he opened at yesterday, was 6/1 this morning and that is not a price to encourage taking a risk…
Fine Brunello on the other hand, has been relatively friendless in the market - and at a price of around 20/1, I think he is worth a speculative play…
He’s only run once for Joseph, at Limerick, over the Christmas period.
He was also relatively unfancied that day (SP 25/1) - but ran really well, to finish fourth behind his stablemate, Band of Outlaws.
He was staying on strongly in the closing stages, which should stand him in good for the stiffer test at Cheltenham this afternoon.
On form, he has a lot to do in todays race - but he has boundless scope for improvement and couldn’t have better connections (owned by JP McManus and ridden by Barry Geraghty).
1:15
This looks a really open race, in which all 8 runners can be given a chance of sorts…
I can understand Kildisart being favourite - but he doesn’t have a lot in hand of Azzerti on their Ascot run and 7/2 is too short for him…
I also think that 9/2 is too short for Enola Gay - it strikes me that the Venetia factor is being over played with this one…
If I had got involved with the race, it probably would have been with Spiritofthegames.
He finished last of 4 on his most recent run - but he was trying to give 12lb to La Bague au Roi and I doubt many horses could do that.
He’s been well backed this morning - which could be significant…
Of the outsiders, then I think First Drift is probably over-priced at 16/1 - but I suspect he will find a couple too good: whilst Onefortheroadtom is potentially the most interesting runner in the field - particularly if he comes in for market support (currently 12/1).
However, with it possible to construct cases for most of the runners - and no obvious significant margin with prices, this has to be a watching race.
1:50
This is another race where quite a few can be given a chance - however, I like the chances of Ballyhill best…
He won over course and distance just over a year ago, before losing his form.
However, he has bounced back this season and following a good run over hurdles at Bangor, hacked up in a fair chase at Aintree.
That saw his mark raised by 10lb - but he ran really well last time, off his new mark. That was in a similar race to todays and he finished third behind two very good rivals, in the shape of Aso and Happy Diva.
Aso is now being touted as a Ryanair candidate; whilst Happy Diva won a listed chase at Huntingdon, yesterday.
Ballyhill pulled clear with the pair of them - and I suspect it is strong form…
Understandably, his mark wasn’t dropped for that effort - but he does get 7lb claimer Jordan Nailer in the saddle this afternoon.
He takes over from Sam Twiston Davies - and whilst he might not yet be quite as good as STD, I doubt he is 7lb inferior.
As a result, it can be argued that the horse has effectively dropped in the handicap.
Using that argument - and against weaker opposition today, then I think he is worth siding with, at 7/1.
Of his opponents, then all of the main dangers look to be at towards the head of the market.
Janika will be hard to beat if building on a very promising UK debut: whilst Siruh du Lac and The Kings Writ both look progressive…
Brelan Das is the other one of interest - but again, he looks priced up about right.
2:25
This is a tough race to call, because there are question marks over all 6 runners:
Frodon may find the trip too far; whilst Elegant Escape may find it too short !
Terrefort would be the one to beat, on last seasons form - but ran inexplicably badly on his seasonal debut at Sandown.
Daryl Jacobs still prefers him to Valtor - so that hardly advertises the claims of the latter !
Minella Rocco is the theoretical bet in the race (best in at the weights and suited by the test) - but I suspect he will come on for the run; whilst Allyson Monterg really shouldn’t be good enough to win a race of this nature (unless the other 5 all under-perform).
If forced, I would probably side with Terrefort, in the hope that he can bounce back to form.
But at around 4/1, guessing has limited appeal…
3:00
This is the most disappointing race on the card - and it’s not one that I have a particularly strong view on…
Jarveys Plate sets the form standard on the back of his win over course and distance, on New Years day.
However, he is burdened with a 5lb penalty for that victory - and I suspect he will struggle to give weight to Birchdale and Brewinupastorm.
Of that pair, the latter has the best form - but the former strikes me as the most likely winner.
He is trained by Nicky Henderson, who has an embarrassment of riches in the novice hurdle department, this season.
Birchdale is clearly highly thought of - and also looked pretty good, when winning on his debt at Warwick.
You couldn't back him at 7/4, based on what he has achieved - but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either…
3:35
I was going to pass on this race - but the drift in the price of Midnight Shadow has changed my mind !
It’s an absolutely cracking race - and in truth, a chance can be given to at least half the field…
The old staying guard of Unowhatimeanharry and Lil Rockerfeller are taken on by new kids on the block, in the shape of Paisley Park and Midnight Shadow - but there is far more to the race than that !
Black Op reverts to hurdling after showing inaptitude for fences; whilst Aux Ptit Soins looks to build on a most promising seasonal debut, which suggested he could yet make it to the top.
When you add into the mix, the enigma that Sam Spinner is becoming - plus a couple of others who could be given half chances - then you have a race worth travelling a fair way to see…
Instinctively, I feel that Paisley Park and Midnight Shadow are the 2 to focus on - and that is why the drift in the price of Midnight Shadow has enticed me in.
The doubt with him is the trip - but if he does stay he could prove hard to beat.
Certainly, he has looked very strong in the finish on his 2 most recent runs - and they were both over 2m4f.
He has to tackle half a mile further today - but I think there is as much chance that he will improve for the trip, as there is of him not staying…
The decent ground will help - and he showed last time that the Cheltenham hill holds no fears for him.
It’s an open race for sure - but I think he has a good chance - and his current odds now under-estimate that chance.
4:10
I did intend to get involved with this race - but the two horses I was considering siding with, were well backed early and any margin in their prices, evaporated…
I think that Flash the Steel is the most likely race winner.
He did very well to win last time at Doncaster, rallying, having been headed on the run to the last.
He will be well suited by todays stiffer track - and as that was his first run in a handicap - and only his third over hurdles - he’s likely to have plenty of scope for improvement.
Certainly, it’s not hard to think that he could end up a fair bit better than his current rating of 125…
The issue is a price of 10/3, which leaves no margin for error…
Maquisard is the other one I was interested in - and at a double figure price I would have taken a risk on him.
He was 11/1 early - but I suspect he was tipped by someone just after 8:00 - and the 8/1 now available, has no margin in it…
I think he will run well - and should go close - though I have a slight concern about his ability to get up the Cheltenham hill (particularly if there is any rain).
In truth, it’s not just a 2 horse race - which is why chasing a price down, has no appeal.
If either one drifts near the off (I’ll be targeting 5/1 and 10/1), then I’ll get involved - otherwise, I’ll just watch…
Doncaster
3:15
I wouldn’t normally side with a relatively exposed 10 year old in a race of this nature - but it’s hard to ignore the claims of Federici…
He finished a close up fifth in the corresponding race last season - and runs today off a pound lower mark.
He wore blinkers for the first time that day and they possibly caused him to run a little too freely. They are back on today - but he should be more used to them by now, so their impact should be slightly less.
He was without them when he made his seasonal debut in the Becher chase at Aintree, last month,.
He still ran really well, to finish fifth - and it strikes me as significant, that they are re-applied today.
There can be absolutely no dounbt that connections would love to win todays race: not just for the prize money - but also because it would probably result in a ratings rise which would give him a chance of gettign into the Grand National.
With Brian Hughes in the saddle, I’m sure the horse will be giving it everything…
Whether that will be enough to get him home in front, remains to be seen.
Dingo Dollars strikes me as a very solid favourite - and if his price was a little bigger, I would at least be saving on him.
His price has drifted a bit (9/4 out to 3/1) - but I would want at least 7/2 to justify supporting him.
Maybe that will happen as the off approaches and you can all get him on side too - but for official purposes it’s down to Federici !
Uttoxeter
2:15
There is some great racing at Cheltenham this afternoon - but it is very competitive (as you would expect) and there is little doubt in my mind, that Hastrubal is the best bet of the day…
Some of you might find that strange, as he’s a 10 race maiden, who is making his fencing debut - but I never let those kind of details put me off !
He caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Bangor, when he ran really well to finsih second behind the progressive Eric le Rouge.
As that was his first run for 18 months, I thought there was a chance he might ‘bounce’ next time - but instead, he ran just as well, when again finishing second to a progressive horse at Warwick.
On his most recent outing, I expected him to win - but yet again, he could only finish second (though this time it was behind a horse returning to form).
Despite 3 seconds in a row, I don’t think there is anything wrong with Hastrubals attitude.
I just think he’s a bit one paced - and what he really needs is a trip in soft ground (which is what he gets this afternoon).
Whilst in theory, the fact he is tackling fences makes him risky - he looks like a chaser to me - and the vast majority of Henry Dalys horses improve for a fence.
I’m absolutely convinced that he is far better than his current rating of 114 - and hopefully this afternoon, he will start to demonstrate that.
In terms of dangers: then if he jumps round cleanly and is as good as I think, I’ll be surprised if anything in the field can beat him.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Chel 12:40 Fine Brunello 0.5pt win 22/1
Chel 1:50 Ballyhill 1pt win 7/1
Chel 3:35 Midnight Shadow 0.5pt win 8/1
Donc 3:15 Federici 0.5pt win 11/1
Uttox 2:15 Hastrubal 1.5pt win 11/2
Mentions
Chel 1:15 Spiritofthegames (O )
Chel 2:25 Terrefort (S )
Chel 3:00 Birchdale (P )
Chel 4:10 Flashing the Steel (P ) & Marqusard (C )
Review of the day
As I said this morning, when a graded horse runs in a handicap, it usually
finds a way to win - and despite a couple of sticky jumps up the straight -
and on ground possibly a touch softer than ideal - Invitation Only’s class
got him home in front in todays Thyestes chase.
He was given a masterful ride by Ruby: who always had him in the perfect position, jumping from fence to fence.
It did looked briefly as if he might struggle to overhaul Alpha des Obeaux - but that one had given his all from the from and had nothing left to withstand the late challenge of Invitation Only.
The only issue was the winners price - but as we all know, trying to find big priced winners nowadays, is often the quickest route to the poor house…
Mr Diablo was a bigger price this morning - but he is only a handicapper (although I did hope he was a well handicapped, handicapper !).
He ran a fair race - and was still in with half a chance turning in. However, the rain softened ground probably made it more of a stamina test than he cares for and he didn’t get home.
There will be other days for him…
As for the Mentions:
Then the pre-race drift on Coquin Mans almost certainly told a story (he needed the run): so with Darasso disappointing - and Bapaume and Limini doubtful stayers, Presenting Percy probably had little to beat.
That said, he won very well - and it’s clearly going to take a good one to stop him from claiming the ultimate prize at Cheltenham in March (cue Shattered Love :) ).
Flat to the Max was just that for the first 2 miles of the handicap hurdle - before weakening out of things.
Put the Kettle On ran much better and finished an honourable third.
However, it wasn’t a race that set my pulse racing…
Finally, Arctic Fire didn't jump very well in the Beginners chase and Cilaos Emery jumped just fine.
It was therefore unsurprising to see the Grade 1 winning hurdler come home in front.
It will be interesting to see just how far he can progress, over the bigger obstacles…
TVB.
He was given a masterful ride by Ruby: who always had him in the perfect position, jumping from fence to fence.
It did looked briefly as if he might struggle to overhaul Alpha des Obeaux - but that one had given his all from the from and had nothing left to withstand the late challenge of Invitation Only.
The only issue was the winners price - but as we all know, trying to find big priced winners nowadays, is often the quickest route to the poor house…
Mr Diablo was a bigger price this morning - but he is only a handicapper (although I did hope he was a well handicapped, handicapper !).
He ran a fair race - and was still in with half a chance turning in. However, the rain softened ground probably made it more of a stamina test than he cares for and he didn’t get home.
There will be other days for him…
As for the Mentions:
Then the pre-race drift on Coquin Mans almost certainly told a story (he needed the run): so with Darasso disappointing - and Bapaume and Limini doubtful stayers, Presenting Percy probably had little to beat.
That said, he won very well - and it’s clearly going to take a good one to stop him from claiming the ultimate prize at Cheltenham in March (cue Shattered Love :) ).
Flat to the Max was just that for the first 2 miles of the handicap hurdle - before weakening out of things.
Put the Kettle On ran much better and finished an honourable third.
However, it wasn’t a race that set my pulse racing…
Finally, Arctic Fire didn't jump very well in the Beginners chase and Cilaos Emery jumped just fine.
It was therefore unsurprising to see the Grade 1 winning hurdler come home in front.
It will be interesting to see just how far he can progress, over the bigger obstacles…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Jan 24th
The abandonment of both Fakenham and Wetherby, means that there is only one
NH meeting today: at Gowran Park, in Ireland.
It’s very unusual for me to be covering a mid-week day outside of the main festivals - but that’s because there are virtually no ‘big’ races run during the midweek nowadays…
The Thystes chase is an exception: the high-light of the racing year at Gowran - it is also a race close to the heart of TVB…
Who can ever forget Jadanlis victory in 2012..?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g-XF8MKCp4
In my opinion, still just about the best tip I’ve ever issued.
28/1 in the morning (BSP of 50+) - I couldn’t see him out of the frame - and I was right :-)
Wonderful stuff…
I don’t think I’ll be able to make such a memory today - but I’ll be happy enough with a low key race win !
I’ve ended up tipping 2 in todays big race: my main fancy - plus a saver.
I did briefly toy with tipping in the Galmoy hurdle - but I can’t quite decide what to go with - so I’ve ended up going with nothing !
Here are my thoughts on the 4 main races on the Gowran card…
Gowran Park
1:50
I want to oppose Presenting Percy in this - and I’ll be very surprised if any of the outsiders win - so it feels like a race I should be having a go at.
However, I just can’t decide between the 4 in the race, who I think have a chance of winning (ignoring Presenting Percy).
I like the profile of Darasso best.
Ex. French, today will be his second run for Joseph O’Brien today, having shown promise on his stable debut at the end of last year.
I would expect him to improve for that outing - but feel he will need to, as he was comfortably beaten (and by a horse who would struggle in todays race).
At a price, I might have taken a risk on him - but 4/1 is too tight…
Coquin Mans hold more appeal at 11/2 - but he comes with significant risks…
He’s not run since being pulled up last May - and a large chunk of his attraction is because of his connections (Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh).
I’d make him just about the most likely winner - but that’s assuming Ruby is on Willies best hope !
That may not be the case, as Bapaume and Limini, are also trained by Willie - and both can be given a chance.
Of the pair, I prefer Limini - even though she is unproven over todays trip - and was very disappointing last time…
And that’s what makes this a hard race to get involved with.
Whilst I think the favourite is vulnerable - there are significant question marks against his main rivals - and even bigger ones against the outsiders !
If forced, I would side with Coqin Mans - but it wouldn’t be with the kind of conviction required, to make him a tip…
2:25
This race looks a bit of a minefield, so I won’t spent too long on it !
My 2 against the field are, Flat to the Max and Put the Kettle On.
The former is a 4 year old, representing Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott.
After a couple of disappointing runs, things clicked for him at Gowran on his penultimate outing, when winning a big field maiden.
He wore blinkers for the first time that day - and they were retained for his most recent run at Leopardstown.
That was in grade 2 company - and whilst he was well beaten, he will find todays company far less demanding.
I have a slight concern about his ability to stay 2m4f - and that tempers my enthusiasm for him.
However, if he does, then I think he has the ability to go close.
Put the Kettle on was a disappointment last time at Limerick, having previously won well at Navan.
Based on the Limerick run, he can’t beat Veneziano Springs - but I’m prepared to put a line through that effort.
He was sent off 3/1 fav and just didn’t run his race.
He’s certainly risky - but I think he also has sufficient ability to run well, in what is a very open looking contest.
3:00
It doesn’t seem quite right that 14 of the 18 runners in this feature race, are trained by either Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott.
The situation can’t be healthy for Irish racing, and whilst I’m sure that most of their runners will be doing their best and running on their individual merits - it does take away a dimension from the race.
Still, it’s the way things are - so we either accept it, or find another race to get involved with (and in truth, they dominate most of the big Irish races to the same extent).
All this said, my main fancy for the race, isn’t trained by either of them !
Mr Diablo is trained by Philip Dempsey - and will be ridden by his son, Luke.
The horse was partnered by David Mullins when he ran a massive race to finish second on his penultimate outing in the Troytown chase, back in November.
He was totally unfancied that day - but there was no fluke about the performance.
It also looks like very strong form: the winner of the race, Tout est Pemis is now rated 12lb higher and won at Grade 2 chase at Thurles on Sunday: Whilst the third horse, Magic of Light, is now rated 14lb higher, and has won her 2 subsequent starts…
Mr Diablo meanwhile, gets to run from a mark just 4lb higher today - which consequently looks very lenient.
In fairness, he has subsequently been beaten off todays mark - but that was over a shorter trip - and he may also not have fully recovered from his Troytown exertions….
He looks to have been targeted at this race - and with perfect conditions - and an attractive handicap mark, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go very close…
If there is one in the race that can beat him, I think it will be Invitation Only.
He’s a second season novice, who competed with credit, at the highest level last season.
He ran a fair race in a very hot race at Tramore on his seasonal debut on New Years Day - and that should have set him up perfectly for today.
An opening mark of 152 looks fair - and Ruby in the saddle, suggests that he is Willies number one.
He could easily be a graded horse in a handicap - and they generally find a way to win…
Of the others, then Dounikos has a very good chance based on his run behind Monalee in a grade 1 event at Leopardstown, last February (when I tipped him !).
He has the beating of Invitation Only, based on that run - but has disappointed on his 5 subsequent runs.
There was a bit more promise last time, in the Paddy Power Gold cup - but he still finished well beaten and you have to draw the line somewhere.
The final one of major interest, is Borice.
He’s a real stab in the dark - but he was well backed for the Paddy Power chase on his debut for Gordon Elliott.
However, he whacked the very first fence that day - and ended up being given an extremely quiet ride.
That told us nothing - but the market support suggested he has plenty of ability.
If he’s able to show that today, he could well be involved in the finish.
3:35
This looks a strong beginners chase - and I’ll be very surprised if it doesn't go to one of the top 4 in the betting…
Cilaos Emry is making his chasing debut after over a year off the track.
However, he’s a grade 1 performer at his peak - and if his jumping holds up, he is definitely the one to beat.
His stablemate, Duc des Genievres looks the main danger particularly as he has the benefit of chasing experiences.
That said, he only just finished in front of Ministerforsport, when the pair filled the placings beihnd A Plus Tard, at Naas last month.
However, I would except that form to be upheld, as I think Miniseterforsport ideally wants more of a stamina test.
That is arguably true for Arctic Fire - as he has shown his best recent form over 2m4f.
However, he has also high class form over the minimum trip - and whilst he is leaving it a bit late, to turn his attention to fences, if he shows any aptitude, he could easily outrun relatively dismissive odds.
At 14/1, if there is a bet in the race, it is probably him…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
GowP 3:00 Mr Diablo 1pt win 11/1
Gowp 3:00 Invitation Only 0.5pt win 9/2
Mentions
GowP 1:50 Coquin Mans
GowP 2:25 Flat to the Max (S ) & Put the Kettle on (S )
GowP 3:35 Arctic Fire (O )
It’s very unusual for me to be covering a mid-week day outside of the main festivals - but that’s because there are virtually no ‘big’ races run during the midweek nowadays…
The Thystes chase is an exception: the high-light of the racing year at Gowran - it is also a race close to the heart of TVB…
Who can ever forget Jadanlis victory in 2012..?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6g-XF8MKCp4
In my opinion, still just about the best tip I’ve ever issued.
28/1 in the morning (BSP of 50+) - I couldn’t see him out of the frame - and I was right :-)
Wonderful stuff…
I don’t think I’ll be able to make such a memory today - but I’ll be happy enough with a low key race win !
I’ve ended up tipping 2 in todays big race: my main fancy - plus a saver.
I did briefly toy with tipping in the Galmoy hurdle - but I can’t quite decide what to go with - so I’ve ended up going with nothing !
Here are my thoughts on the 4 main races on the Gowran card…
Gowran Park
1:50
I want to oppose Presenting Percy in this - and I’ll be very surprised if any of the outsiders win - so it feels like a race I should be having a go at.
However, I just can’t decide between the 4 in the race, who I think have a chance of winning (ignoring Presenting Percy).
I like the profile of Darasso best.
Ex. French, today will be his second run for Joseph O’Brien today, having shown promise on his stable debut at the end of last year.
I would expect him to improve for that outing - but feel he will need to, as he was comfortably beaten (and by a horse who would struggle in todays race).
At a price, I might have taken a risk on him - but 4/1 is too tight…
Coquin Mans hold more appeal at 11/2 - but he comes with significant risks…
He’s not run since being pulled up last May - and a large chunk of his attraction is because of his connections (Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh).
I’d make him just about the most likely winner - but that’s assuming Ruby is on Willies best hope !
That may not be the case, as Bapaume and Limini, are also trained by Willie - and both can be given a chance.
Of the pair, I prefer Limini - even though she is unproven over todays trip - and was very disappointing last time…
And that’s what makes this a hard race to get involved with.
Whilst I think the favourite is vulnerable - there are significant question marks against his main rivals - and even bigger ones against the outsiders !
If forced, I would side with Coqin Mans - but it wouldn’t be with the kind of conviction required, to make him a tip…
2:25
This race looks a bit of a minefield, so I won’t spent too long on it !
My 2 against the field are, Flat to the Max and Put the Kettle On.
The former is a 4 year old, representing Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott.
After a couple of disappointing runs, things clicked for him at Gowran on his penultimate outing, when winning a big field maiden.
He wore blinkers for the first time that day - and they were retained for his most recent run at Leopardstown.
That was in grade 2 company - and whilst he was well beaten, he will find todays company far less demanding.
I have a slight concern about his ability to stay 2m4f - and that tempers my enthusiasm for him.
However, if he does, then I think he has the ability to go close.
Put the Kettle on was a disappointment last time at Limerick, having previously won well at Navan.
Based on the Limerick run, he can’t beat Veneziano Springs - but I’m prepared to put a line through that effort.
He was sent off 3/1 fav and just didn’t run his race.
He’s certainly risky - but I think he also has sufficient ability to run well, in what is a very open looking contest.
3:00
It doesn’t seem quite right that 14 of the 18 runners in this feature race, are trained by either Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott.
The situation can’t be healthy for Irish racing, and whilst I’m sure that most of their runners will be doing their best and running on their individual merits - it does take away a dimension from the race.
Still, it’s the way things are - so we either accept it, or find another race to get involved with (and in truth, they dominate most of the big Irish races to the same extent).
All this said, my main fancy for the race, isn’t trained by either of them !
Mr Diablo is trained by Philip Dempsey - and will be ridden by his son, Luke.
The horse was partnered by David Mullins when he ran a massive race to finish second on his penultimate outing in the Troytown chase, back in November.
He was totally unfancied that day - but there was no fluke about the performance.
It also looks like very strong form: the winner of the race, Tout est Pemis is now rated 12lb higher and won at Grade 2 chase at Thurles on Sunday: Whilst the third horse, Magic of Light, is now rated 14lb higher, and has won her 2 subsequent starts…
Mr Diablo meanwhile, gets to run from a mark just 4lb higher today - which consequently looks very lenient.
In fairness, he has subsequently been beaten off todays mark - but that was over a shorter trip - and he may also not have fully recovered from his Troytown exertions….
He looks to have been targeted at this race - and with perfect conditions - and an attractive handicap mark, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go very close…
If there is one in the race that can beat him, I think it will be Invitation Only.
He’s a second season novice, who competed with credit, at the highest level last season.
He ran a fair race in a very hot race at Tramore on his seasonal debut on New Years Day - and that should have set him up perfectly for today.
An opening mark of 152 looks fair - and Ruby in the saddle, suggests that he is Willies number one.
He could easily be a graded horse in a handicap - and they generally find a way to win…
Of the others, then Dounikos has a very good chance based on his run behind Monalee in a grade 1 event at Leopardstown, last February (when I tipped him !).
He has the beating of Invitation Only, based on that run - but has disappointed on his 5 subsequent runs.
There was a bit more promise last time, in the Paddy Power Gold cup - but he still finished well beaten and you have to draw the line somewhere.
The final one of major interest, is Borice.
He’s a real stab in the dark - but he was well backed for the Paddy Power chase on his debut for Gordon Elliott.
However, he whacked the very first fence that day - and ended up being given an extremely quiet ride.
That told us nothing - but the market support suggested he has plenty of ability.
If he’s able to show that today, he could well be involved in the finish.
3:35
This looks a strong beginners chase - and I’ll be very surprised if it doesn't go to one of the top 4 in the betting…
Cilaos Emry is making his chasing debut after over a year off the track.
However, he’s a grade 1 performer at his peak - and if his jumping holds up, he is definitely the one to beat.
His stablemate, Duc des Genievres looks the main danger particularly as he has the benefit of chasing experiences.
That said, he only just finished in front of Ministerforsport, when the pair filled the placings beihnd A Plus Tard, at Naas last month.
However, I would except that form to be upheld, as I think Miniseterforsport ideally wants more of a stamina test.
That is arguably true for Arctic Fire - as he has shown his best recent form over 2m4f.
However, he has also high class form over the minimum trip - and whilst he is leaving it a bit late, to turn his attention to fences, if he shows any aptitude, he could easily outrun relatively dismissive odds.
At 14/1, if there is a bet in the race, it is probably him…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
GowP 3:00 Mr Diablo 1pt win 11/1
Gowp 3:00 Invitation Only 0.5pt win 9/2
Mentions
GowP 1:50 Coquin Mans
GowP 2:25 Flat to the Max (S ) & Put the Kettle on (S )
GowP 3:35 Arctic Fire (O )
Review of the day
An
ultra game performance from Wakanda meant that it was another winning day for
the tips…
If
I’m honest, that was a relief, as doubts regarding the state of the ground had left me anything but
confident about todays racing.
For
what it’s worth:
the ground was riding a bit quicker at Haydock than I expected (and a lot
quicker at Tuanton - though I ducked that meeting completely, because of the
uncertainty !), so it was
therefore very surprising to see Daklondike sent off a short priced favourite
for the Tommy Whittle chase - though less of a surprise to see him struggling
from an early stage, and then falling.
As
I said this morning, Wakanda doesn’t have a marked ground preference - but he does have a
rare desire to win.
All
the way up the home straight, at least one of his rivals seemed to be going
better than him.
First
it was Captain Redbeard; then it was Ballyarthur and finally, it was
Robinsfristh.
But
non of them possess Wakandas appetite for a scrap - and one by one he saw them
off, before surging away in the final 50 yards.
It
really was stirring stuff !
I
was cautiously optimistic that Vendor might double up for connections in the
next race on the Haydock card - but alas that wasn’t to be…
He
ran a fair race and was still in with a chance entering the home
straight.
However,
he couldn’t go on
from there and ultimately finished a well beaten fourth.
If
I’m honest, I
think he looks to be in decline - and I my tendency will be to just watch him in
the short term…
My
tendency will also be to just watch Rock on Rocky next time.
He’s run nearly 50 times
over obstacles in his career - and prior to today, had never
fallen.
He walked
through a fence at Warwick last week and was lucky to stand up.
He
walked through the first at Ascot today - and wasn’t so fortunate
!
It
really was a bizarre thing to watch - almost as if he didn’t see the
fence.
Maybe
his eye sight is going in his old age (I’m sure a few of us can relate to that
!).
Muratello
was the only other tip on the day - and he ran really well.
He
was an extremly speculative selection - but when I saw he had been supported in
from 16/1 early to 8/1 at the off, my hopes were raised.
And
sure enough, he ran a very good race: Travelling nicely into the straight and
looking as if he had a real chance jumping the second last.
However,
I suspect his lack of experience caught him out at that point - and the front 2
quickened away from him.
He
did stay on, late in the day and I suspect he will turn out to be a very useful
novice…
As
for the days Mentions:
Then
I guess it could be argued that Global Citizen was one that got away…
He
was probably the strongest of the Mentions - but I just didn’t feel that tipping at
a short price, with the uncertainty over the ground, was a good
idea.
Suffice
to say, he made me pay for that decision - and won well…
Over
at Ascot, both If You Say Run and Culture de Sivola ran disappointingly in the
mares hurdle - though that’s to take nothing away from the winner, Magic of Light,
who looked just as good over hurdles as she has done over
fences.
Better
Getalong was beaten much further by Ballymoy than he had been last time at
Haydock - despite being better off at the weights.
The
winner looked very useful and a step up to graded company probably awaits…
A
step up to graded company is almost guaranteed for
Cyrname, as he put in one of the most impressive performances in a handicap,
that I have seen in quite some time….
He
jumped the first in the lead - and then proceeded to draw further and further
away from his rivals.
Benatar
probably paid the penalty for trying to chase him - and he ultimately finished
well beaten.
The next
time we see Cyrname, it is likely to be in Grade 1 company.
Finally,
Altior recorded his 17th consecutive
win - as expected – but without being at his brilliant best.
That
said, the mark of a true champion is being able to win when things aren’t going too well - and
there can be little doubt that Altior is a true champion.
TVB.
Daily write-up - Jan 19th
There
are 4 NH meetings today: at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton in the UK - plus Navan in
Ireland.
I’ve
said it a few times before, but the one thing I really hate as a tipster, is the
threat of overnight rain (or snow !) on a Friday evening…
We’ve
been quite lucky in that respect, so far this season.
I
can’t recall many Friday evenings when I’ve been wondering how the ground will
ride the following day (generally, it’s been on the quick side !) - and I
suspect that has been a big factor in this seasons strong
performance.
However,
today (or more accurately, last night), things are different…
I
spent a few hours yesterday evening, studying the form, with little idea of what
the ground would actually be like, when it mattered (ie. when the races are
run).
That
makes things nearly impossible.
The
state of the ground is a massive factor in deciding the outcome of a race - so
you really need to know it (or at least have a good idea), to stand much of a
chance.
However,
that wasn’t the case yesterday evening, with the ground at both Taunton and
Haydock described as ‘good to soft’ - but with a lot of rain/snow threatening to
fall.
Consequently,
it was this morning before I could assess conditions - and begin to decide on
the days tips.
And
even then, I did so with a degree of trepidation, as I’m trying to figure out
what the weather has done overnight - and also what is likely to happen prior to
race times…
Maybe
it’s therefore not too surprising, that we’ve ended up a bit light on tips
today, with 4 of them.
The
racing just feels too trappy, to really launch in to things.
We’re
in a good position his season, because of selectivity - and I'm sure there will
be plenty more good days before the season is over…
Here
is the rationale behind the days tips - plus my thoughts on the days other big
races at Ascot and Haydock.
Ascot
1:15
I
tipped Rock on Rocky, just last Saturday, when he finished fourth at
Warwick…
He
was a slightly speculative tip that day - and whilst the ran well enough, my
feeling was that we got on him a run too early.
Post
race, I said that he would win next time - ‘mark my words’.
Well,
I guess we’ll find out this afternoon, whether my words warrant
marking..!
In
truth, I’m not feeling quite as bullish about his chances as I expected - but
that’s mainly because I wasn’t expecting to him be reappearing quite so soon
!
His
trainer, Matt Sheppard, has sent out nearly 80 losers, since his last
winner.
I
expect that situation will change quite soon - but I would really like to see
evidence that it has happened, before I get too heavily involved with one of his
horses…
Despite
that however, I’ve still decided to take a small risk on Rocky…
The
bottom line is, the horse is ridiculously well handicapped - and I don’t think
he’s in bad form (he would have gone much closer to winning last weekend, if
he’d not demolished the fourth fence).
Rocky
has won in the past, on the back of a quick return to the track - so he appears
to have the constitution to take a couple of quick races: he also ran one of his
best races over todays course and distance, just over a year ago (I tipped him
that day as well !) - when narrowly failing to beat Mr Medic.
That
one is now rated 17lb higher - whilst Rocky runs today, off a mark 1lb
lower…
Today's
race is of a reasonable standard - and all of the runners can be given a chance
of sorts.
However,
I’ve little doubt that at his best, Rocky could win - let’s hope he’s performs
close to that level this afternoon…
1:50
Magic
of Light has been installed favourite for this on the back of her impressive win
at Newbury, last time…
It’s
unusual for Jessie Harrington to send one over for a race of this nature - so
her chance has to be respected.
However, she runs over hurdles today - and all of her best form is over fences.
However, she runs over hurdles today - and all of her best form is over fences.
She
may prove to be just as good over the smaller obstacles - but there is nothing
in her price, to justify taking a risk to find out…
With
Jester Jet having to concede weight to her rivals - and also likely to find the
ground a bit quick; If You Say Run and Culture de Sivola look the 2 to
concentrate on.
To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice with them.
To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice with them.
They
are closely linked on form - and available at the same price (10/3).
If
forced, I’d side with If You Say Run - but with everything so tight, there is no
margin to warrant getting involved…
2:25
The
presence of Thosedaysaregone, makes this a hard race to get involved
with…
Charles
Byrnes sent him over to Wetherby last weekend - and he dotted up in a handicap
there, having been backed as if defeat was out of the question…
Todays
race is much stronger - and he has to run off a mark 9lb higher - but it’s quite
possible he could still be up to the job.
Unsurprisingly,
the bookmakers were very defensive with their early prices - and he was
installed at just 2/1.
He’s
out to 5/1 now - but that was almost inevitable.
The
key thing will be what happens to his price, close to the off - but we’ve no
idea on that…
Ignoring
him - this is still a tough race to fathom.
Seddon
looks very interesting on his handicap debut, stepping up in trip - but he now
heads the market.
The
third favourite is Ballymoy - and he was impressive last time, when winning at
Haydock.
That
said, he might struggle to confirm the form of that race, with Better Getaling,
who was making his seasonal debut and is 5lb better off this
afternoon.
He’s
also Brian Hughes’ only ride on the day - which strikes me as
significant…
Even
outside the 4 mentioned, there are others of interest, in the shape of Colonial
Dreams and New Quay…
In
short, this just looks too tough a race to get involved in - particularly
bearing in mind the big unknown concerning Thosedaysaregone…
3:00
This
is yet another race on the Ascot card, where I’m struggling to see an
angle…
I
like Benatar best - and thought he ran very well last time, when the 3 mile trip
probably stretched him.
He
drops 3 furlongs today - and I think that’s a positive move.
Instinctively,
I feel that his current mark of 149 under-estimates his ability - but he does
need to start delivering…
He
may well do so today - but at 5/1, he’s short enough, in what appears to be a
very warm contest…
Certainly,
Venetias Belami Des Pictons, looks a very big danger.
He’s making his seasonal debut - but I doubt very much that he will want for fitness, and his mark of 146 could under-estimate him.
He’s making his seasonal debut - but I doubt very much that he will want for fitness, and his mark of 146 could under-estimate him.
However,
like Benatar, he is plenty short enough in the market, at 5/1…
Mr
Medic and Happy Diva are two others that interest me - though they too, looked
priced about right.
Whilst
Flying Angel and Quite by Chance are outsiders who I could give half chances to
- though both have fair sized question marks over them…
Instinctively,
I feel that the race is most likely to go to one of the two at the head of the
market - but I would struggle to choose between them and at 5/1 the pair there
is little incentive to do so.
3:35
Numerically,
there is a very disappointing turn out for the big race on the card - with just
3 runners.
However,
with Altior one of the 3, it’s maybe not too surprising…
He
is currently head and shoulders above all of his contemporaries - so it’s
perhaps inevitable that the opposition has been frightened off.
It’s
a little disappointing that a few more didn’t choose to at least have a
go.
Fourth
place prize money was £8K - which is more than you get for winning many races
!
That
said, whoever had run, the result would likely have been the same.
Barring accidents, Altior will win - and probably with plenty to spare…
Barring accidents, Altior will win - and probably with plenty to spare…
Haydock
2:05
Mr
Fisher has been installed a short priced favourite for this - but I
instinctively want to take him on…
In
fairness, he won a strong race at Kempton over Christmas - but everything seemed
to drop in his favour, that day.
He
was receiving weight from all of his rivals - and seemed well suited to the
speed test, that Kempton provides.
Things
will be very different for him today…
For
a start, he has to give weight to his rivals - and whilst the ground at Haydock
may not be bottomless, it’s likely to be more holding than it was at
Kempton.
He also needs to prove his ability to act on a left hand course.
He also needs to prove his ability to act on a left hand course.
In
short, there are sufficient question marks to warrant taking him on, at a price
of even money.
The
question, was which one to oppose him with…
Bright
Forecast is the obvious one - but he’s only a 5/2 shot and I’m more inclined to
take a risk on one of the less exposed runners…
It
therefore became a choice between Esprit du Large, Idee de Garde and Muratallo -
and I opted for the last named...
He
is totally unexposed - having only run twice in his native France, and never
having officially run in this country.
He
actually has run in the UK - but he ran in a race which was abandoned, with 2
flights to go (due to an injured horse).
At
the point when the race was stopped, Muratallo was in second place - and still
stood a chance of winning.
If
he had won that race, I doubt he would have been a 16/1 shot today…
Muratallo
is owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede and they have plenty of very nice
horses.
I
therefore find it interesting that they are pitching him in to graded company,
so early in his career.
Of
course, he may not be up to the job - but with a suspect favourite and the other
runners having almost as much to prove, I think it is worth a small risk to find
out…
2:40
This
is a very tight race - and whilst I can’t argue with Silver Streak being
favourite, he’s hardly bomb proof…
Certainly,
his preference for quick ground might catch him out - depending on how Haydock
rides this afternoon.
The
trouble is, nothing stands out to take him on with…
Western
Ryder has just about the strongest credentials - but he’s not a horse that I
particularly like.
Mohaayed
can be given a good chance on official ratings - but he will find todays 5
runner race very different to the big handicaps which he’s won
recently…
If
forced to get involved, I’d probably side with Global Citizen.
I
originally thought that he wanted decent ground and a right hand track - but his
win at Newbury seemed to disprove that (and his subsequent disappointing run at
Kempton, seemed to contradict it completely !).
I
guess that’s my main issue with him - I think he probably has the ability to win
a race such as this - but ‘m not absolutely sure !
In
the circumstances, 4/1 just seems to be about the right price…
3:15
I
think the state of the ground will have a big impact on the result of this race
- I just wish I felt confident of predicting what that will be !
If
it is very holding (so soft/heavy), then I Otago Trail and Dakondike are
probably the 2 to concentrate on. However, I’m hoping that won’t be the
case.
I
suspect the ground will be riding slower than the official description of ‘good
to soft’ suggests - but not much worse than soft…
If
that is the case, then I think Wakanda has a very good chance.
In
truth, he hasn’t got the same ground dependence as a few of his rivals - so
should be able to run his race regardless. The trouble is, on extremes of
ground, specialists tend to come to the fore…
Wakanda
has ticks in a lot of boxes this afternoon.
He’s
running off a mark just 1lb higher than he ran from, when winning the Sky Bet
chase at Doncaster, last January.
He
showed tremendous guts to get up that day - and his attitude will always stand
him in good stead.
He’s
not featured in his 4 runs since that win, but there have been valid reasons for
that.
His 2 other outings last season, were in big handicaps at the spring festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree; whilst he made his seasonal debut in December, over hurdles at Wetherby.
His 2 other outings last season, were in big handicaps at the spring festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree; whilst he made his seasonal debut in December, over hurdles at Wetherby.
I
think that run was designed to get him spot on for the Rowland Merrick chase at
the same course on Boxing day - but he chased too fast a pace that day and
didn’t get home.
Hopefully,
Danny Cook will get his fractions right this afternoon - as if he does, I think
the horse should go very close.
Assuming
it’s not heavy ground, then Captain Redbeard looks the biggest danger - but he
is not as well handicapped as Wakanda - and is also a slightly shorter price
!
3:45
I’m
hoping that Sue Smith and Danny Cook have a good afternoon at Haydock !
Not
only do they have Wakanda in the big race on the card - they are also
responsible for Vendor in this…
He’s
a horse who has a long history with TVB - and he caught my eye on his
penultimate run over todays course and distance, on the Saturday before
Christmas.
He
finished fourth that day, in a similar race todays, staying on well in the
closing stages.
That
was his third run back after a long absence and it looked to me as if he’d be
ready to put in a very big run next time.
What
I didn’t expect however, was that next time would be just 4 days later - and
over a trip which is arguably too far for him…
I’ve
no idea what was going on there - maybe his connections wanted a runner at
Wetherby on Boxing day - I really don’t know.
All I do know is that the run should probably be ignored - and we should focus on the Haydock effort.
All I do know is that the run should probably be ignored - and we should focus on the Haydock effort.
Based
on that run, then he has a very good chance this afternoon - as his mark has
dropped a further 4lb.
There
can be little doubt that provided he retains sufficient of his old ability, he
is handicapped to win.
As with Wakanda, he has no strong ground preference - and that is unlike at least a couple of his rivals.
As with Wakanda, he has no strong ground preference - and that is unlike at least a couple of his rivals.
I
would therefore expect him to run a big race - and if he is able to bring up a
double for Danny and Sue, then I suspect we will all be smiling !
Here’s
hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc
1:15 Rock on Rocky 0.5pt win 10/1
Hayd 2:05 Muratello 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 3:15 Wakanda 1pt win 8/1
Hayd 3:45 Vendor 1pt win 7/1
Hayd 2:05 Muratello 0.5pt win 16/1
Hayd 3:15 Wakanda 1pt win 8/1
Hayd 3:45 Vendor 1pt win 7/1
Mentions
Asc
1:50 If you say Run (O )
Asc
2:25 Better Getalong (O )
Asc
3:00 Benatar (P )
Hayd
2:40 Global Citizen (O )
Tuesday, 15 January 2019
Review of the day
Henryville
evidently decided that it would be far more fun, running wherever he fancied
around Kelso, rather be constrained to running round the track !
He
took off with James Bowen, pre-race and did a couple of miles - most of it at
high speed - before finally coming to a halt.
Thankfully,
the decision was made to withdraw him - as whatever chance he had of winning,
had well and truly gone by that point…
To
be honest, I think his chance of winning, would have been pretty slim
regardless.
I
felt that he could easily have gone off at half this mornings price, if
connections fancied him - but instead, his odds had doubled, even before his
gallivanting began !
In
a way, it’s
quite impressive that an 11 year old, with over 40 runs under rules, should
retain such enthusiasm for the job: but on the other hand it’s also quite
worrying…
It’s
one thing Peter Bowen rekindling his fire - but if he can’t direct his energies,
then it’s not a lot of good, from a betting perspective.
I’ll
certainly be a little wary about supporting him the next time he’s
declared…
His
defection, mean that what was already a quite day, ended up passing with barely
a ripple…
The
one Mention: Mountain Mews, ran OK to finished second - but was given a lesson
in jumping by Dimple.
The
only bright point of the day, was the performance of the Dobbers in
Ireland.
Both managed to get the job done - tho Jetz only did so by the skin of his teeth.
A
BSP of 5.8 and an IR low of 3.3 mean those with impressive discipline could have
befitted - but only just.
Felix
Desjy on the other hand, achieved his objective quite easily - plus a bit more
!.
He
was massively supported in the market (almost as if someone knew he was going to
run well).
5/1
this morning was 11/4 at the off - but he never saw another rival and looked a
fair horse in the process of winning.
They've
certainly found the key to him - both in terms of distance and in terms of how
to ride him…
Just
a quick update on the email issues…
With
the weekend now out of the way, I can put a bit more time into finding a
resolution.
I’ll
set up a distribution group for those who use Gmail - so future tests won’t
impact everyone.
I
may end up having to send the email from a different address (possibly
admin@thevaluebettor.co.uk), so look out for that…
Whatever
you should all get a ‘Plans for the Weekend’ email later this week (probably on
Thursday evening).
If
it’s not come through by Friday lunchtime, then please let me know !
TVB.
TVB.
Daily write-up - Jan 13th
There
are 2 NH meetings today: at Kelso in the UK and Punchestown in
Ireland.
Earlier
in the week, when I looked at the 5 day declarations, I was optimistic that we
might get a decent days racing - but it’s not really turned out that
way…
Certainly,
the card at Kelso is disappointing: there are two class 2 handicaps - but they
have only mustered a total of 8 runners between them.
It’s
down the ground - which remains unseasonally quick - but it’s still
disappointing…
Field
sizes aren’t the issue at Punchestown - but most of the races look unfathomable
!
The
Mullins/Elliott domination never helps - but that’s even more the case when you
are looking at novice events…
Still,
there will be other days that we can attack - the month has gone really well so
far, so there’s certainly no need to try and force anything…
I
have issued one small tip on the day.
It’s
a recent eye catcher - and whilst it comes with risks - I’ve little doubt that
the horse could hack up, if it’s on its ‘A’ game (or possibly even its ‘B’ game
!)
Here’s
the rationale behind the tip - and brief thoughts on a few of the days other
races…
Kelso
1:35
You
won’t see a much weaker field for a £20K race !
Just
the 4 runners - and only 2 of them are in the handicap proper.
More
than that, the 2 that are, have both got question marks hanging over them, as
they are having their first runs over hurdles for new trainers…
I
can’t help but feel that an opportunity to pick up some easy prize money has
been missed, for a few 125+ rated 2 mile hurdlers…
In
terms of what will win the race - then it’s anybodies guess !
The
old Diamond King would hack up - but I’ll be a bit surprised if the old Diamond
King turns up !; Prince Charmin should have a good chance based on his Irish
form - but could easily need the run; Martila should be the selection by default
- though he probably needs softer ground; whilst The Herd Garden shouldn’t have
a chance from 10lb out of the handicap - but…!
If
absolutely forced, I would probably side with The Herd Garden, as he’s the
outsider of the field (so at least you get a decent price !) - however, I’m not
being absolutely forced !!
2:05
The
second class 2 race on the card - and there’s another disappointing turn
out.
In
fairness, this time it is just about numbers, as the 4 runners are all
decent.
I
suspect that Mount Mews is the most decent of them all - though he’s having his
first run for Donald McCain and hasn’t been seen since last March, so his
fitness has to be taken on trust.
As
a consequence, a price of 2/1, has limited appeal…
If
he’s not fully wound up, then I suspect that either Dimple or Eureu Du Boulay
will take advantage - even though the latter may prefer a softer
surface…
Again,
it’s not a race that you could consider getting seriously involved
with.
Mount
Mews could outclass his rivals - but it’s just as likely that he will need the
run.
A
watching brief is recommended…
3:10
Henryville
caught my eye last month, on his seasonal debut at Chepstow.
That
was his first run for Peter Bowen and he raced with real zest, until tiring up
the home straight.
I
would expect him to have improved significantly for that run - and he also gets
a hood re-applied today, which should help him settle.
If
that is the case, then he probably has the ability to destroy todays
field.
Certainly,
that was the case when he was at his peak.
In
the past, he has been rated 156 over hurdles and 153 over fences - but today he
runs off a mark of just 137.
He’s
down in class as well: a regular performer in class 1 races - he’s been running
in class 2 races recently - but drops to class 3 today…
In
terms of todays conditions, then he will get the good ground that he needs: and
whilst there is a slight question mark concerning the trip, he has run well at 3
miles before (though never won) - and todays small field is likely to mean that
it won’t be a severe stamina test.
I
think this essentially boils down to whether Peter Bowen has managed to rekindle
the flame.
My
impression, from the way he raced at Chepstow, was that the horse was enjoying
the game again.
If that is the case, then I’ll be a little surprised if he doesn’t win…
If that is the case, then I’ll be a little surprised if he doesn’t win…
Punchestown
1:15
In
receipt of weight from all of his rivals, A Plus Tard is likely to take a bit of
beating in this.
Following
a decent Irish debut at Gowran in November, when he finished second, he went one
better when winning a good quality race at Naas, just before
Christmas.
In
truth, he won’t need to significantly better that effort to win again today -
and he very much looks the one to beat…
Unfortunately,
that is reflected in a price of 11/8 - and whilst his jumping has looked sound,
that is a very short price to take about any novice chaser !
At
a bigger price, then I could see Jetz running well.
He did just that when I tipped him on his penultimate outing in the grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.
He did just that when I tipped him on his penultimate outing in the grade 1 Drinmore chase at Fairyhouse.
He
didn’t really give himself a chance that day, as he wouldn’t settle - and it’s
interesting to see that the hood has been removed today.
Apparently,
the plan is to let him stride on - and there is a chance that those tactics
could work.
Certainly,
it could make him a decent in-running play (having backed pre-race).
The
final one worthy of a mention, is Ben Dundee.
He’s disappointed the last twice, but I was quite impressed by him when he won over todays course and distance in November.
He’s disappointed the last twice, but I was quite impressed by him when he won over todays course and distance in November.
If
he can recapture that form, he could outrun odds of 10/1.
2:50
This
looks a race best tackled with a pin !
There
are 2 runners for Mullins; 2 runners for Elliott - and 2 runners for the others
!
The
market thinks that Willie is most likely to saddle the winner, courtesy of
Buildmeupbuttercup or Harrie - and it may be right !
Jan
Maat looks to have a lot on - but all of the other 5, strike me as possible
winners…
I
wouldn’t be inclined to have a conventional bet in the race - but I suspect
Felix Desjy will lead and travel strongly.
Whether he will last home, is a different matter - but it could make him another fair in-running play…
Whether he will last home, is a different matter - but it could make him another fair in-running play…
Here’s
hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
TVB.
Tips
Kelso
3:10 Henryville 0.5pt win 6/1
Mentions
Kelso
2:05 Mount Mews (C )
Dobbers
Punch
1:15 Jetz
Punch
2:50 Felix Desjy
Review of the day
Sometimes
I think, that picking the winners is the easy part of this game…
Give
me a race to mull over - and more often than not, I’ll
return you the winner - or at least a horse that will go pretty
close.
But
alas, that’s only half the game.
I
then need to turn that opinion into a tip - and issue that tip at a time when
you all have a chance of getting on.
More
than that, that time needs to coincide with a point when the bookies are
offering a fair price about the horse’s chance…
And
unfortunately, getting all those stars to align is rarely an easy
matter…
I
was very keen on Impulsive Star today - but he nearly wasn’t a tip.
That
sounds ridiculous, considering he was 10/1 across the board all day yesterday -
and 14 on BF, 10 mins before the off.
However,
in the window where I can tip, he was a best price of 15/2.
If
he had gone down to 6/1 (far from impossible), I would have drawn the line - and
a winner would have been missed (officially speaking).
That’s
precisely what happened with Lord Napier.
I
didn’t fancy him quite as much, but I did fancy him.
He
was 7/1 all day yesterday - and I backed him at 10 on BF, 10 mins before the
off.
However,
in the window where I can tip, he was a best price 11/2 - and I felt that was
just too short.
You
could say that I showed great judgement and discipline - and maybe I
did.
But
you could also say I got lucky…
I’m
honestly not sure how best to handle these situations (and similar happens most
weeks).
There
probably isn’t an answer - but when I say I think the price will drift, it’s
because I think the horse is too short.
If
you chase down those kind of prices, you’ll almost certainly end up regretting
it…
Ofcourse,
finding tips wasn’t the only problem that I experience this morning - actually
issuing them didn’t go too smoothly either !
For
whatever reason at least 20 of you found that my emails ended up in your junk
folder (what does the Spam filter know, hey 
).
I
don’t know why it happened: it seems to be connected to Gmail and bulk email -
but I can’t offer much more than that, at this point in time.
If
you did experience a problem this morning, you should mark the emails as ‘not
junk’ - and add thevaluebettor@gmail.com to your contact
list.
Hopefully
that will resole the issue.
I
will also post the emails in the forum - for a little while at
least.
Anyway,
on to the days action !
As
I’ve just mentioned above, Impulsive Star made sure it was a good day, with a
tenacious victory in the feature event at Warwick.
I’m
sure a few of you picked up, that I really fancied him - though it’s always hard
to be confident in a race of that nature.
Sam
Waley Cohen settled him in behind the leaders - precisely as I’d hoped - and
generally the horse jumped well.
He
took up the running jumping the third last - but was being pressured himself, on
the turn into the straight.
It
looked as if Calet Mad might have his measure - but he’s not the most resolute,
whilst Impulsive Star is a battler.
When
he still had a chance jumping the last, I thought he’d come out on
top.
And
that’s exactly what happened, as he powered away on the run in, for what was
ultimately, a comfortable win…
He
was the second winner on the day, as Mercian Prince had already delivered at
Kempton.
I
wasn’t quite as keen on him - though I knew he had a good chance.
Jack
Quinlan was very positive on him and set out to make all.
The
horse didn’t let him down and jumped from fence to fence.
I
suspect his rivals didn’t perform to their best (as I suspected might be the
case) - but I think he would have destroyed them even if they had.
He
ultimately eased to a 17 length win - and is definitely a contender for easiest
winning tip of the season !
Secret
Investor was the other big tip on the day, and I was slightly
disappointed/frustrated by him.
There
weren’t really any excuses, but I can’t help but feel he could have
won.
His
jumping fluctuated between brilliant and poor - and the poor jumps cost him both
momentum and position.
Ultimately
that scuppered his chance of winning - though he was a clear second
best.
I
certainly wouldn’t give up on him, because from what I saw today, the ability is
there for him to take high rank - once his jumping becomes more
consistent.
The
days 2 other tips were more speculative - and ran accordingly !
Lever
Du Soleil was ridden more aggressively today - but just wasn’t good
enough.
At
least we now know where we stand with him !
Rock
on Rocky also raced prominently - and how he managed to stay upright after
ploughing through the fourth fence, I’ve no idea.
I’m
sure that cost him his chance - and in the circumstances, he did quite well to
finish fourth.
He’s
likely to be dropped to a rating below 120, on the back of that run - and he’ll
win next time out - mark my words !!
Finally,
a quick round up of for the Mentions:
5
of the 6 finished third - and the other one finished fourth - which is roughly
what I expect from Mentions !
Lord
Napier ran well - but lacked tactical pace: Barney Dwan was unlucky to be badly
impeded - whilst First assignment was bullet well dodged !
All
in all then, a very busy day - but as you know by now, that tends to be the way
in the world of TVB !!
TVB.
TVB.
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