It was nice to finish the month with a winner - though I
couldn’t help but feel that things should have been even better…
The win
came courtesy of Eddiemaurice, who got up under a pulsating drive from Jamie
Moore, to deny Caid du Lin in the shadows of the post.
As I said this
morning, I viewed Caid du Lin as the main danger to Eddiemaurice, and I got
within an inch of having a saver on him.
He had drifted out to 5/1 at
10:30 - which I thought was an acceptable price: but was then trimmed back to
9/2, just before 11:00.
It was a borderline call - and ultimately it didn’t
matter - but I would have been gutted if the photo finish had gone the other way
!
For once however, fate smiled on us - and in truth, it was nothing less
than Eddie and Jamie deserved…
Interestingly, despite an SP of 6/1 - his
BSP was almost 9/1.
Every winner that I have tipped during March, has had a
bigger BSP than the advised price - which is certainly food for thought (and
should help to discourage chasing down prices, when the tips are issued !)
I did think that Robin des Foret was going to deliver a second win on
the day, just 10 mins later.
Ridden very patiently by Paul Townend, he
came there cruising after the second last (traded at 1.34 in
running).
However, not for the first time this season, Ruby denied us a
payout - this time by galvanising Burrows Saint.
My feeling was that
Robin des Foret didn’t really stay the trip - whereas I had expected him to
improve for it.
I guess I can’t read everything right !
Bigbadjohn was
the final tip on day - and he ran a little disappointingly…
He gave up
the outside to no one (which I think is because he doesn’t like to be crowded in
his races) - and his jumping wasn’t fluent.
Despite that, he still looked
to have a decent chance, a mile from home - but then the race temp quickened and
he got outpaced.
He was staying on again at the end - but it wasn’t enough to
even get him a place…
As for the Mentions:
Then there was a bit of
frustration that I felt unable to tip Star Max.
As you all know, I try to
play the tipping as fairly as possible: issuing only when people can get on
(without fear of account closure !) - and in races with robust markets.
Star
Max was running in a relatively minor race, which I wouldn’t have felt
comfortable tipping in.
That was a shame as he performed as I hoped - and
ended up a game winner.
I know that quite a few of you backed him
'unofficially', which is always a consolation.
TVB - the service that gives
a little bit more :)
The days 2 other mentions ran at Ascot.
Honorable
never really featured in a very competitive juvenile hurdle: whilst Favorito
Bucks was always flat out, trying to get himself into the right position in the
handicap chase.
I was pleased that I didn’t chase down the price on him.
I fancied him strongly - but was aware that the trip could be an issue and
therefore demanded some margin in his price.
Simply, you have to show
discipline with prices, if you are going to bet profitably…
TVB.
Saturday, 30 March 2019
Daily write-up - Mar 31st
There are 2 NH meetings today: at Ascot and
Limerick.
Things have been very quiet since Cheltenham: in truth, things have been very quiet for the past month - aside from Cheltenham !
That will change this week, however.
Not so much today: though both of the days meetings have some merit - but from Thursday onwards, when the Grand National meeting begins at Aintree…
Today provides a nice aperitif for that:
There is some decent racing at both Ascot and Limerick - and I particularly appreciated seeing the final declarations, 48 hours in advance.
It makes such a difference to studying the form.
Life would be so much easier, if is was introduced more generally (or at least, for Saturdays).
But alas, that is out of my hands !
Ofcourse, what it wouldn’t do, is make getting on any easier !
As always, the markets are both tight and fragile - which makes tipping a challenge.
That said, I did manage to find 3 horses who I felt were worth siding with at the generally available odds.
Now we just need one - or two - of them, to do the decent thing and come home in front !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Ascot
2:45
This is too open a race, to consider getting involved with…
Praeceps sets the standard on his 6th place in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
That’s obviously very strong form - and he possibly went for home too early that day.
Running off the same mark this afternoon, he sets the race standard (assuming he is fully recovered from his exertions).
That said, on the book, there is an argument for saying he shouldn’t beat Honorable.
There was just 2 lengths between the pair when they met at Market Rasen in February - and Honorable is no less than 22lb better off today !
It’s quite possible that Honorable is flattered by the run - but a price of 20/1 certainly makes him interesting…
However, the issue with the race, is that there are at least half a dozen others, who could easily be involved at the finish.
The unexposed Scaramanga for Paul Nicholls, is the most obvious one - though he has been well found in the market (3/1 fav).
Zafar and Al Kherb are similarly unexposed - but are both much bigger prices (11/1 & 25/1) which makes them more appealing…
Legal History ran really well at Newbury last Saturday, and must have a chance; as too must Irish raider, Quantatmental.
So that’s at least 7 in the race, that I could give a chance.
I think it’s time to move on…
3:20
By contrast to the previous race, this one looks too straightforward !
I spent a fair bit of time, yesterday evening, trying to work out what price I’d be prepared to tip Favorito Bucks at.
I reckon 2/1 is the ‘right’ price for him (possibly 7/4) - so I would have wanted 9/4, or ideally 5/2.
At 6/4 this morning, I quickly realised that I’d wasted my time trying to work out a ‘value’ price !
The issue is, he’s too obvious - and the opposition is too limited.
He’s actually run really poorly on his 2 most recent starts - but they were both on unsuitably soft ground.
He gets his ground this afternoon - and is back at the course where he was a good winner of a similar race, in November.
He runs from a mark just 2lb higher (because of his 2 poor subsequent runs) - and simply, is going to take a lot of beating.
There’s a slight question mark regarding the trip (it’s a bit shorter than ideal) - but he doesn’t lack pace and will probably get away with it.
The other big thing is his favour, is that non of his opponents look primed to win.
Vivas looks the most interesting of them - but he is still 3lb above his last winning mark, so may need to come down the handicap a little further…
This really does look Favorito Bucks race to lose - but 6/4 allows no margin for error, so consequently, he can only be watched.
3:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on the outsider, Eddiemaurice, in this…
He’s only run 5 times over fences in his life - and whilst he has never won, he ran really well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Lillington, at Newbury.
That one won again next time and is now rated 11lb higher, suggesting that Eddiemaurice faced quite a task that day.
In truth, for much of the home straight, it looked as if Eddiemaurice was going to win - but Lillington showed the greater resolution in the closing stages.
There is a slight concern that Eddiemaruice is a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse - though he has won 4 times over hurdles - most recently in December - so it’s not as if he can’t get his head in front.
He’s also won at Ascot - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today - so he is potentially well handicapped if everything does drop right.
That didn’t happen last time at Kempton, when he unshipped Jamie Moore at the very first fence - but I suspect Moore will be keen for atone for that, this afternoon…
Part of the attraction of Eddiemaurice is that I can see issues with all 4 of his rivals.
For a start, the top 3 horses all had their most recent outings at Cheltenham - though non of them featured in their respective contests.
Obviously, today will be a drop in class for them - but they will have been primed for the Cheltenham run, so may not be at a peak today.
They have also all got to concede at least 24lb to Eddiemaurice - and that’s a lot of weight.
Dentley de Mee is the other runner in the field - and he doesn't concede Eddiemaurice much weight.
However, his best form has been over further than todays 2m1f trip - so he may lack the required pace (particularly on quick ground).
The trip could also be an issue for Highway one o one, who has shown improved form since stepping up to 2m4f.
Capeland has already had quite a long season, suggesting that Caid du Lin could be the main danger to Eddiemaurice.
I certainly respect his chances - but he was less than half the price of Eddiemaurice, so I felt the value was with Eddie…
4:30
10 year olds tend to do well in these veterans races - and I think the three 10 year olds in this contest, are the ones to focus on…
Junction Fourteen is one of them - and he has a definite chance on his most recent run behind Looking Well, in a similar contest at Doncaster.
My main issue with him however, is that he’s at his best when able to dominate, and with Loose Chips in todays field, that’s unlikely to happen…
Van Gogh du Granit is the second 10 year old - and he ran well on debut for David Pipe last time, at Taunton.
I would expect him to improve for that run - and I could have been interested in him, apart from the fact that all his French form suggests that he wants much softer ground than he is going to get today (ideally heavy).
Which leaves Bigbadjohn…
He’s the third 10 year old in the race - and to be honest, has a tick in pretty much every box !
He has his first run today, for over 4 months - but he has a good record when fresh.
His best form is on good ground (which he will get) - and he’s won before at Ascot (over todays distance).
He has a preference for small fields (10 should just about be OK) - and he’s not badly handicapped.
He may not win - but I couldn’t ask for many more positives from his profile !
Of the others, then Josses Hill could be dangerous, because he has plenty of back class.
That said, his recent form isn't inspiring - and it’s always dangerous looking at the back class of horses who are clearly past their prime…
Limerick
2:20
This is not really a race I could consider tipping in (due to the strength of the market - and the bookmaker margins) - but if it had been possible, I would have been tempted by Star Max.
Joseph O’Brien has a very strong hand of juvenile hurdlers and this one had been progressing nicely, prior to his most recent run in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He was quite well fancied for that race - sent off 8/1 second favourite, behind his stablemate Band of Outlaws - but he ran disappointingly and never really featured.
You have to be prepared to forgive him that run - but it often pays to forgive a horse one bad run.
Certainly, based on his 3 previous runs over hurdles, he has a decent chance in this - and the fact he is trained by Joseph O’Brien, is a definite bonus.
In truth, this isn’t a race where it’s easy to get a handle on all of the runners.
Maze Runner is an understandable favourite, having finished second to Band of Outlaws on his most recent outing.
There’s a chance that run flatters him - but trained by Willie Mullins, he was never going to be much of a price.
Plenty of the others are tricky to assess - so it’s not a race where you could be overly confident.
That said, Star Max looks to have a better chance than most - and at around 8/1, doesn’t look a bad bet…
4:05
I think it is worth taking a chance on Robin de Foret in this.
He’s the apparent second string of Willie Mullins - and has to give weight to all of his rivals - but I still think he is worth siding with.
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - and on his preferred decent ground, I think that will unlock improvement.
He’s already the highest rated horse in the race, on official ratings - so if he is able to raise his game, then he will definitely take a bit of beating.
Certainly his hurdles form suggests that todays test is precisely what he needs.
He has won on heavy ground - but his best form is on a quick surface; similarly, he’s won over 2 miles - but has better form over further.
He disappointed on his most recent start, after a winter break - but he was hampered early in that race, so the run can be ignored.
His 2 previous runs in the autumn, were both very good: when runner up to Le Richebourg and when falling at the third last behind Winter Escape.
Based on those 2 runs, he is definitely the one to beat in todays race…
Obviously, the fact that he has apparently been over-looked by Ruby Walsh, in favour of stablemate Burrows Saint, is a concern.
However that one looks to need some cut in the ground - so today conditions could be an issue for him. He’s also unproven over todays trip - and therefore doesn’t hold much appeal at a price of 6/4.
Non of the others have form to match that of Robin des Forets - and they are all relatively exposed (so there is no reason to expect significant improvement).
In short, Robin des Foret represents a fair bet, at the available odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 3:55 Eddiemaurice 1pt win 8/1
Asc 4:30 Bigbadjohn 1pt win 6/1
Lim 4:05 Robin des Foret 1pt win 7/1 (pre R4)
Mentions
Asc 2:45 Honorable (S )
Asc 3:20 Favorito Bucks (P )
Lim 2:20 Star Max (C )
Things have been very quiet since Cheltenham: in truth, things have been very quiet for the past month - aside from Cheltenham !
That will change this week, however.
Not so much today: though both of the days meetings have some merit - but from Thursday onwards, when the Grand National meeting begins at Aintree…
Today provides a nice aperitif for that:
There is some decent racing at both Ascot and Limerick - and I particularly appreciated seeing the final declarations, 48 hours in advance.
It makes such a difference to studying the form.
Life would be so much easier, if is was introduced more generally (or at least, for Saturdays).
But alas, that is out of my hands !
Ofcourse, what it wouldn’t do, is make getting on any easier !
As always, the markets are both tight and fragile - which makes tipping a challenge.
That said, I did manage to find 3 horses who I felt were worth siding with at the generally available odds.
Now we just need one - or two - of them, to do the decent thing and come home in front !
Here’s the rationale behind the tips - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Ascot
2:45
This is too open a race, to consider getting involved with…
Praeceps sets the standard on his 6th place in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
That’s obviously very strong form - and he possibly went for home too early that day.
Running off the same mark this afternoon, he sets the race standard (assuming he is fully recovered from his exertions).
That said, on the book, there is an argument for saying he shouldn’t beat Honorable.
There was just 2 lengths between the pair when they met at Market Rasen in February - and Honorable is no less than 22lb better off today !
It’s quite possible that Honorable is flattered by the run - but a price of 20/1 certainly makes him interesting…
However, the issue with the race, is that there are at least half a dozen others, who could easily be involved at the finish.
The unexposed Scaramanga for Paul Nicholls, is the most obvious one - though he has been well found in the market (3/1 fav).
Zafar and Al Kherb are similarly unexposed - but are both much bigger prices (11/1 & 25/1) which makes them more appealing…
Legal History ran really well at Newbury last Saturday, and must have a chance; as too must Irish raider, Quantatmental.
So that’s at least 7 in the race, that I could give a chance.
I think it’s time to move on…
3:20
By contrast to the previous race, this one looks too straightforward !
I spent a fair bit of time, yesterday evening, trying to work out what price I’d be prepared to tip Favorito Bucks at.
I reckon 2/1 is the ‘right’ price for him (possibly 7/4) - so I would have wanted 9/4, or ideally 5/2.
At 6/4 this morning, I quickly realised that I’d wasted my time trying to work out a ‘value’ price !
The issue is, he’s too obvious - and the opposition is too limited.
He’s actually run really poorly on his 2 most recent starts - but they were both on unsuitably soft ground.
He gets his ground this afternoon - and is back at the course where he was a good winner of a similar race, in November.
He runs from a mark just 2lb higher (because of his 2 poor subsequent runs) - and simply, is going to take a lot of beating.
There’s a slight question mark regarding the trip (it’s a bit shorter than ideal) - but he doesn’t lack pace and will probably get away with it.
The other big thing is his favour, is that non of his opponents look primed to win.
Vivas looks the most interesting of them - but he is still 3lb above his last winning mark, so may need to come down the handicap a little further…
This really does look Favorito Bucks race to lose - but 6/4 allows no margin for error, so consequently, he can only be watched.
3:55
I think it is worth taking a chance on the outsider, Eddiemaurice, in this…
He’s only run 5 times over fences in his life - and whilst he has never won, he ran really well on his penultimate outing, when runner up to Lillington, at Newbury.
That one won again next time and is now rated 11lb higher, suggesting that Eddiemaurice faced quite a task that day.
In truth, for much of the home straight, it looked as if Eddiemaurice was going to win - but Lillington showed the greater resolution in the closing stages.
There is a slight concern that Eddiemaruice is a bit of a ‘bridle’ horse - though he has won 4 times over hurdles - most recently in December - so it’s not as if he can’t get his head in front.
He’s also won at Ascot - and off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today - so he is potentially well handicapped if everything does drop right.
That didn’t happen last time at Kempton, when he unshipped Jamie Moore at the very first fence - but I suspect Moore will be keen for atone for that, this afternoon…
Part of the attraction of Eddiemaurice is that I can see issues with all 4 of his rivals.
For a start, the top 3 horses all had their most recent outings at Cheltenham - though non of them featured in their respective contests.
Obviously, today will be a drop in class for them - but they will have been primed for the Cheltenham run, so may not be at a peak today.
They have also all got to concede at least 24lb to Eddiemaurice - and that’s a lot of weight.
Dentley de Mee is the other runner in the field - and he doesn't concede Eddiemaurice much weight.
However, his best form has been over further than todays 2m1f trip - so he may lack the required pace (particularly on quick ground).
The trip could also be an issue for Highway one o one, who has shown improved form since stepping up to 2m4f.
Capeland has already had quite a long season, suggesting that Caid du Lin could be the main danger to Eddiemaurice.
I certainly respect his chances - but he was less than half the price of Eddiemaurice, so I felt the value was with Eddie…
4:30
10 year olds tend to do well in these veterans races - and I think the three 10 year olds in this contest, are the ones to focus on…
Junction Fourteen is one of them - and he has a definite chance on his most recent run behind Looking Well, in a similar contest at Doncaster.
My main issue with him however, is that he’s at his best when able to dominate, and with Loose Chips in todays field, that’s unlikely to happen…
Van Gogh du Granit is the second 10 year old - and he ran well on debut for David Pipe last time, at Taunton.
I would expect him to improve for that run - and I could have been interested in him, apart from the fact that all his French form suggests that he wants much softer ground than he is going to get today (ideally heavy).
Which leaves Bigbadjohn…
He’s the third 10 year old in the race - and to be honest, has a tick in pretty much every box !
He has his first run today, for over 4 months - but he has a good record when fresh.
His best form is on good ground (which he will get) - and he’s won before at Ascot (over todays distance).
He has a preference for small fields (10 should just about be OK) - and he’s not badly handicapped.
He may not win - but I couldn’t ask for many more positives from his profile !
Of the others, then Josses Hill could be dangerous, because he has plenty of back class.
That said, his recent form isn't inspiring - and it’s always dangerous looking at the back class of horses who are clearly past their prime…
Limerick
2:20
This is not really a race I could consider tipping in (due to the strength of the market - and the bookmaker margins) - but if it had been possible, I would have been tempted by Star Max.
Joseph O’Brien has a very strong hand of juvenile hurdlers and this one had been progressing nicely, prior to his most recent run in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.
He was quite well fancied for that race - sent off 8/1 second favourite, behind his stablemate Band of Outlaws - but he ran disappointingly and never really featured.
You have to be prepared to forgive him that run - but it often pays to forgive a horse one bad run.
Certainly, based on his 3 previous runs over hurdles, he has a decent chance in this - and the fact he is trained by Joseph O’Brien, is a definite bonus.
In truth, this isn’t a race where it’s easy to get a handle on all of the runners.
Maze Runner is an understandable favourite, having finished second to Band of Outlaws on his most recent outing.
There’s a chance that run flatters him - but trained by Willie Mullins, he was never going to be much of a price.
Plenty of the others are tricky to assess - so it’s not a race where you could be overly confident.
That said, Star Max looks to have a better chance than most - and at around 8/1, doesn’t look a bad bet…
4:05
I think it is worth taking a chance on Robin de Foret in this.
He’s the apparent second string of Willie Mullins - and has to give weight to all of his rivals - but I still think he is worth siding with.
He steps up in trip to 3 miles today - and on his preferred decent ground, I think that will unlock improvement.
He’s already the highest rated horse in the race, on official ratings - so if he is able to raise his game, then he will definitely take a bit of beating.
Certainly his hurdles form suggests that todays test is precisely what he needs.
He has won on heavy ground - but his best form is on a quick surface; similarly, he’s won over 2 miles - but has better form over further.
He disappointed on his most recent start, after a winter break - but he was hampered early in that race, so the run can be ignored.
His 2 previous runs in the autumn, were both very good: when runner up to Le Richebourg and when falling at the third last behind Winter Escape.
Based on those 2 runs, he is definitely the one to beat in todays race…
Obviously, the fact that he has apparently been over-looked by Ruby Walsh, in favour of stablemate Burrows Saint, is a concern.
However that one looks to need some cut in the ground - so today conditions could be an issue for him. He’s also unproven over todays trip - and therefore doesn’t hold much appeal at a price of 6/4.
Non of the others have form to match that of Robin des Forets - and they are all relatively exposed (so there is no reason to expect significant improvement).
In short, Robin des Foret represents a fair bet, at the available odds.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Asc 3:55 Eddiemaurice 1pt win 8/1
Asc 4:30 Bigbadjohn 1pt win 6/1
Lim 4:05 Robin des Foret 1pt win 7/1 (pre R4)
Mentions
Asc 2:45 Honorable (S )
Asc 3:20 Favorito Bucks (P )
Lim 2:20 Star Max (C )
Review of the day
I kept the tips to a minimum today, which I think was
probably the right thing to do.
Unfortunately non of the 3 tips that I did issue, managed to win - but there was at least a bit of interest.
That was certainly the case for the first tip, Capard King.
I thought he represented a bit of value at this mornings 10/1 - but never did I imagine that he would get backed in to 7/2 favouritism !
As I said this morning, it was a competitive race - so there must have been some serious confidence behind him, to cause such a price move.
It was therefore a little disappointing that he unseated his rider, not long after half way.
It was too far out to have a view on whether he would have won - but he certainly wasn’t beaten.
Next time might tell us more - not that it will be much consolation !
The days other 2 tips both ran in the mares final at Newbury - and both ran with credit.
Off the Hook ran particularly well - and between the second and third last, it briefly looked as though she might win.
However, her run then began to falter - whilst Annie Mc found over-drive - and the race was quickly over…
As for the days Mentions…
In the opener at Newbury, my fears concerning Strong Pursuit appeared to be well-founded. He led early but was quickly beaten, once passed.
It did very much look as if he ‘bounced’ on the back of his big effort last time.
In the following race, Elysees ran a fair race to finish fourth, with Friend or Foe, appearing not to stay the trip.
Saint Leo also ran a fair race at Kelso - but conditions had gone against him.
He remains one to keep on side - given soft ground and a return to fences.
Finally, if one did get away today, it was in the long distance handicap hurdle.
I liked Captain Drake best - but felt he represented no value at 9/2.
I viewed Burrows Park as the main danger - and if I’d realised how quick the ground was going to be riding, I may well have taken a risk on him (because of Captain Drakes preference for soft ground).
Ultimately, Burrows Park ran out a very easy winner - with Captain Drake staying on late to claim second.
All a little irritating - but these things happens…
TVB.
Unfortunately non of the 3 tips that I did issue, managed to win - but there was at least a bit of interest.
That was certainly the case for the first tip, Capard King.
I thought he represented a bit of value at this mornings 10/1 - but never did I imagine that he would get backed in to 7/2 favouritism !
As I said this morning, it was a competitive race - so there must have been some serious confidence behind him, to cause such a price move.
It was therefore a little disappointing that he unseated his rider, not long after half way.
It was too far out to have a view on whether he would have won - but he certainly wasn’t beaten.
Next time might tell us more - not that it will be much consolation !
The days other 2 tips both ran in the mares final at Newbury - and both ran with credit.
Off the Hook ran particularly well - and between the second and third last, it briefly looked as though she might win.
However, her run then began to falter - whilst Annie Mc found over-drive - and the race was quickly over…
As for the days Mentions…
In the opener at Newbury, my fears concerning Strong Pursuit appeared to be well-founded. He led early but was quickly beaten, once passed.
It did very much look as if he ‘bounced’ on the back of his big effort last time.
In the following race, Elysees ran a fair race to finish fourth, with Friend or Foe, appearing not to stay the trip.
Saint Leo also ran a fair race at Kelso - but conditions had gone against him.
He remains one to keep on side - given soft ground and a return to fences.
Finally, if one did get away today, it was in the long distance handicap hurdle.
I liked Captain Drake best - but felt he represented no value at 9/2.
I viewed Burrows Park as the main danger - and if I’d realised how quick the ground was going to be riding, I may well have taken a risk on him (because of Captain Drakes preference for soft ground).
Ultimately, Burrows Park ran out a very easy winner - with Captain Drake staying on late to claim second.
All a little irritating - but these things happens…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Mar 23rd
There are 4 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Kelso and Bangor
in the UK - plus Thurles in Ireland.
It’s a low key day, for a Saturday - and there aren’t too many races, in which I could consider tipping.
However, most of the possible races, have drawn reasonable sized fields and are quite competitive - so finding tips was at least feasible.
That said, it tends to be a good idea to tread carefully at this time of year…
Ordinarily, the ground is on the turn, with the better weather resulting in quicker conditions - though that’s not really the case this season, as the ground hasn’t ever gone that soft !
The other potential issue is that a few of the horses will be going over the top, after long seasons.
It’s never easy to judge in advance, when a horse has had enough - but it is something I’m always mindful of…
Anyway, I’ve ended up with just 3 small tips on the day.
I did consider a few others - but ultimately, I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to tip them.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips that I did opt for - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Newbury
2:05
I like Strong Pursuit best in this - but I don’t like his price !
In fairness, I can understand it: he ran really well at Sandown in February, on his return from a long absence.
If he can build on that, he must go very close today - however, there must also be a chance he’ll ‘bounce’ and I’m not sure that is fully factored in to his price (3/1).
Furthermore, based purely on that run, he has little in hand on Salmanazar.
That one finished just behind him at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today.
Strong Pursuit has the greater potential - but I’m not sure it warrants him being a third of the price…
In truth, this looks quite a trappy event.
I’m not overly keen on the claims of second and third favourites; Classic Ben and Joe Farrel - but there are a few of the outsiders, who have the latent ability to go very close…
Luckofthedraw, Rock my Style and Kansas City Chief, are all capable of big runs - though non of the 3 are guaranteed to run their race.
All are worth monitoring in the betting however, in case they come in for sustained support.
With them lurking however, it’s not a race that could be approached with confidence.
That would make it hard to support Strong Pursuit at a short price - even ignoring the concerns with him.
If he drifted to 5/1+, then he would become interesting - but at the current prices, it’s a watching race….
2:40
There is far too much guesswork required to consider getting involved with this particular contest…
Friend or Foe is a short priced favourite, on the back of an impressive UK debut win at Taunton.
Apparently, Paul Nicholls fancied him for the Fred Winter hurdle at Cheltenham, believing the horse to be well handicapped.
If he was capable of going close in that contest - then he will probably win today.
However, odds of 5/2 in a 14 runner handicap, with plenty of unexposed horses in opposition, holds no appeal…
Second favourite, Elysees, is also interesting.
He has demonstrated a good level of form over hurdles - and has apparently been targeted at this race.
He is more exposed than many of the runners - but his second to Quel Destin at Doncaster in December, is the best form in the race.
He should go close - and 6/1 is a fair price….
Outside of the 2 market leaders, then Legal History makes most appeal - but he too has been quite well found in the market.
3:15
This is another open looking handicap - but I think it is worth getting involved with a couple of the lesser fancied runners…
Unlike the previous race, there are no stand out contenders and Millarville and Off the Hook, both strike me as very interesting.
The former makes her handicap debut, having performed well on her 2 most recent runs in novice company: winning on the first occasion - and then finishing third.
She is stepped up in trip today - and as a PTP winner over 3 miles, that looks a move which is almost certain to bring about improvement.
Richard Johnson is a significant jockey booking - and it looks as if she has been targeted at this race…
I suspect that Off the Hook has also been targeted at the race.
She is only the second ever runner at Newbury, for Nick Alexander (his first ran yesterday).
Her form is strong: She finished third to Queenofhearts in a listed race at Haydock, on her penultimate outing - with Papagarna was just behind in fourth (she subsequently won at Doncaster).
She then followed that up by taking a maiden event at Ayr from Sam’s Adventure - and that one also won on his next outing.
Off the Hook looks fairly handicapped on those pieces of form - and she should be well suited by todays test. Plenty of the others can be given a chance - with Etamine du Cochet looking the most dangerous of them. However, there is enough guesswork required with her, to swerve at a best price of 8/1.
Kelso
2:25
I was quite tempted to take a risk on Saint Leo in this…
He was a 2pt tip the last time he ran - and he looked likely to win, until falling.
That was over fences - and he runs over hurdles this afternoon.
In truth, that move could be read in a number of ways (possibly a confidence rebuilding exercise) - however the fact that James Reveley comes over from France to ride him, suggests there is positive intent.
He’s got winning hurdles form in his native France - and I think he is well handicapped - so he really is quite tempting …
However, there are a couple of issues: firstly the ground at Kelso, is likely to be a bit quicker than ideal for him; and secondly he faces at least 4 dangerous looking opponents.
With the guesswork and uncertainty, my feeling is that a price of 6/1, is about right.
He can be backed at 7/1 in a few places - and I wouldn’t put off anyone from getting involved with that.
Officially, though he is just going to be a Mention.
3:00
Capard King looks interesting in this, on his second run for Sandy Thompson.
Formerly trained by Jonjo O’Neil, he made his debut for Thompson at Ayr a fortnight ago and travelled very powerfully through the race, but didn’t quite see it out.
That was his first run for 2 months - and I’m sure he will strip much fitter today.
There can be little doubt that Capard King is a potentially well handicapped horse.
Despite being 2lb out of the handicap this afternoon, he runs from a mark of 120 - which is 19lb below his career high (and 15lb below his last winning mark).
As a 10 year old, there is a chance that he’s not quite as good as he once was: however, there is also the chance that the move to Sandy Thompson will have rekindled his flame.
In theory, he faces some tough opponents this afternoon.
However, favourite, Some Chaos has been raised 11lb for his last time out win: whilst Blue Flight is up 14lb for his defeat of Black Corton in a conditons event.
There must be a possibility that both of them have been harshly dealt with by the handicapper…
In fairness, neither Rons Dream nor Le Reve can be easily dismissed - so it’s not a race to be going over-board on.
That said, Capard King has a fair chance on recent form - and a very good chance on old form - so is worthy of a small interest.
3:35
I did consider getting involved with Captain Drake in this - but I think he’s a bit too short in the betting at 9/2…
With Worthy Farm at 3/1 - and a few credible opponents, I hoped that 6/1 might be obtainable - but that’s not the case.
In terms of the case for him: then it revolves around his defeat of subsequent winner, Liosduin Bhearna, in a novice event at Uttoxeter: and his subsequent win on handicap debut at Southwell.
The bare form of his most recent win, is nothing to get excited about. In fact, he has nothing in hand of Tomkevi, based purely on that run.
However, I get the feeling that he’s a horse with plenty of improvement in him - and I suspect he will relish todays step up in trip to 3m2f.
Certainly, I would take a risk on him at a price - but that price would need to be bigger than 9/2…
In truth, plenty of his opponents can be given a chance (which is another reason for wanting a price) - with Burrows Park, the one that interests me most.
I don’t particularly like the fact he ran at Cheltenham just 8 days ago - bit he did run well and if anyone can get them back performing after a tough race, it is Venetia.
He could be worth a small risk at 9/1 - but it’s hard to tip one horse when you fancy another one more !
On balance, I felt it best to make it a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 3:15 Milarville 0.5pt win 12/1
Newb 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 14/1
Kels 3:00 Capard King 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Newb 2:05 Strong Pursuit (P )
Newb 2:40 Elysees (O )
Kels 2:25 Saint Leo (O )
Kels 3:35 Captain Drake (P )
It’s a low key day, for a Saturday - and there aren’t too many races, in which I could consider tipping.
However, most of the possible races, have drawn reasonable sized fields and are quite competitive - so finding tips was at least feasible.
That said, it tends to be a good idea to tread carefully at this time of year…
Ordinarily, the ground is on the turn, with the better weather resulting in quicker conditions - though that’s not really the case this season, as the ground hasn’t ever gone that soft !
The other potential issue is that a few of the horses will be going over the top, after long seasons.
It’s never easy to judge in advance, when a horse has had enough - but it is something I’m always mindful of…
Anyway, I’ve ended up with just 3 small tips on the day.
I did consider a few others - but ultimately, I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly to tip them.
Here’s the rationale behind the tips that I did opt for - along with my thoughts on the days other main races…
Newbury
2:05
I like Strong Pursuit best in this - but I don’t like his price !
In fairness, I can understand it: he ran really well at Sandown in February, on his return from a long absence.
If he can build on that, he must go very close today - however, there must also be a chance he’ll ‘bounce’ and I’m not sure that is fully factored in to his price (3/1).
Furthermore, based purely on that run, he has little in hand on Salmanazar.
That one finished just behind him at Sandown and is 3lb better off at the weights today.
Strong Pursuit has the greater potential - but I’m not sure it warrants him being a third of the price…
In truth, this looks quite a trappy event.
I’m not overly keen on the claims of second and third favourites; Classic Ben and Joe Farrel - but there are a few of the outsiders, who have the latent ability to go very close…
Luckofthedraw, Rock my Style and Kansas City Chief, are all capable of big runs - though non of the 3 are guaranteed to run their race.
All are worth monitoring in the betting however, in case they come in for sustained support.
With them lurking however, it’s not a race that could be approached with confidence.
That would make it hard to support Strong Pursuit at a short price - even ignoring the concerns with him.
If he drifted to 5/1+, then he would become interesting - but at the current prices, it’s a watching race….
2:40
There is far too much guesswork required to consider getting involved with this particular contest…
Friend or Foe is a short priced favourite, on the back of an impressive UK debut win at Taunton.
Apparently, Paul Nicholls fancied him for the Fred Winter hurdle at Cheltenham, believing the horse to be well handicapped.
If he was capable of going close in that contest - then he will probably win today.
However, odds of 5/2 in a 14 runner handicap, with plenty of unexposed horses in opposition, holds no appeal…
Second favourite, Elysees, is also interesting.
He has demonstrated a good level of form over hurdles - and has apparently been targeted at this race.
He is more exposed than many of the runners - but his second to Quel Destin at Doncaster in December, is the best form in the race.
He should go close - and 6/1 is a fair price….
Outside of the 2 market leaders, then Legal History makes most appeal - but he too has been quite well found in the market.
3:15
This is another open looking handicap - but I think it is worth getting involved with a couple of the lesser fancied runners…
Unlike the previous race, there are no stand out contenders and Millarville and Off the Hook, both strike me as very interesting.
The former makes her handicap debut, having performed well on her 2 most recent runs in novice company: winning on the first occasion - and then finishing third.
She is stepped up in trip today - and as a PTP winner over 3 miles, that looks a move which is almost certain to bring about improvement.
Richard Johnson is a significant jockey booking - and it looks as if she has been targeted at this race…
I suspect that Off the Hook has also been targeted at the race.
She is only the second ever runner at Newbury, for Nick Alexander (his first ran yesterday).
Her form is strong: She finished third to Queenofhearts in a listed race at Haydock, on her penultimate outing - with Papagarna was just behind in fourth (she subsequently won at Doncaster).
She then followed that up by taking a maiden event at Ayr from Sam’s Adventure - and that one also won on his next outing.
Off the Hook looks fairly handicapped on those pieces of form - and she should be well suited by todays test. Plenty of the others can be given a chance - with Etamine du Cochet looking the most dangerous of them. However, there is enough guesswork required with her, to swerve at a best price of 8/1.
Kelso
2:25
I was quite tempted to take a risk on Saint Leo in this…
He was a 2pt tip the last time he ran - and he looked likely to win, until falling.
That was over fences - and he runs over hurdles this afternoon.
In truth, that move could be read in a number of ways (possibly a confidence rebuilding exercise) - however the fact that James Reveley comes over from France to ride him, suggests there is positive intent.
He’s got winning hurdles form in his native France - and I think he is well handicapped - so he really is quite tempting …
However, there are a couple of issues: firstly the ground at Kelso, is likely to be a bit quicker than ideal for him; and secondly he faces at least 4 dangerous looking opponents.
With the guesswork and uncertainty, my feeling is that a price of 6/1, is about right.
He can be backed at 7/1 in a few places - and I wouldn’t put off anyone from getting involved with that.
Officially, though he is just going to be a Mention.
3:00
Capard King looks interesting in this, on his second run for Sandy Thompson.
Formerly trained by Jonjo O’Neil, he made his debut for Thompson at Ayr a fortnight ago and travelled very powerfully through the race, but didn’t quite see it out.
That was his first run for 2 months - and I’m sure he will strip much fitter today.
There can be little doubt that Capard King is a potentially well handicapped horse.
Despite being 2lb out of the handicap this afternoon, he runs from a mark of 120 - which is 19lb below his career high (and 15lb below his last winning mark).
As a 10 year old, there is a chance that he’s not quite as good as he once was: however, there is also the chance that the move to Sandy Thompson will have rekindled his flame.
In theory, he faces some tough opponents this afternoon.
However, favourite, Some Chaos has been raised 11lb for his last time out win: whilst Blue Flight is up 14lb for his defeat of Black Corton in a conditons event.
There must be a possibility that both of them have been harshly dealt with by the handicapper…
In fairness, neither Rons Dream nor Le Reve can be easily dismissed - so it’s not a race to be going over-board on.
That said, Capard King has a fair chance on recent form - and a very good chance on old form - so is worthy of a small interest.
3:35
I did consider getting involved with Captain Drake in this - but I think he’s a bit too short in the betting at 9/2…
With Worthy Farm at 3/1 - and a few credible opponents, I hoped that 6/1 might be obtainable - but that’s not the case.
In terms of the case for him: then it revolves around his defeat of subsequent winner, Liosduin Bhearna, in a novice event at Uttoxeter: and his subsequent win on handicap debut at Southwell.
The bare form of his most recent win, is nothing to get excited about. In fact, he has nothing in hand of Tomkevi, based purely on that run.
However, I get the feeling that he’s a horse with plenty of improvement in him - and I suspect he will relish todays step up in trip to 3m2f.
Certainly, I would take a risk on him at a price - but that price would need to be bigger than 9/2…
In truth, plenty of his opponents can be given a chance (which is another reason for wanting a price) - with Burrows Park, the one that interests me most.
I don’t particularly like the fact he ran at Cheltenham just 8 days ago - bit he did run well and if anyone can get them back performing after a tough race, it is Venetia.
He could be worth a small risk at 9/1 - but it’s hard to tip one horse when you fancy another one more !
On balance, I felt it best to make it a watching race…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Newb 3:15 Milarville 0.5pt win 12/1
Newb 3:15 Off the Hook 0.5pt win 14/1
Kels 3:00 Capard King 0.5pt win 10/1
Mentions
Newb 2:05 Strong Pursuit (P )
Newb 2:40 Elysees (O )
Kels 2:25 Saint Leo (O )
Kels 3:35 Captain Drake (P )
Monday, 18 March 2019
Review of the day
There was no joy with todays tips - and not a great deal to say about them either !
The most notable thing, was that come the off, all 3 had drifted out (on BF) to roughly their prices of last night (which was about 50% higher than this mornings advised prices).
I guess it could have been market corrections (and I could maybe believe that for Back to the Thatch) - but generally, that tends not to be a good thing…
Certainly, it didn’t see to be a good thing for Tara Flow.
I was pretty keen on her - but the market drift - coupled with an apparent reticence to get involved with the race - suggested from a very early stage, that she wasn't going to be involved at the finish.
She never moved out of the last couple of places - and you could only guess, at what the issue was…
The race was won by De Rasher Counter - but he was never really a price where I could have considered him as a saver…
Next it was Forecast.
Again, I thought he had a chance (certainly, more of a chance than his odds implied) - and whilst he moved nicely through the race to the home turn, he was quickly beaten once pressure was applied.
The race was won in impressive fashion, by Poker Play - but his victory wasn’t easy to predict.
The novices, Bold Plan and Acey Milan, followed him home (which was a little more predicable).
Back to the Thatch was the final tip on the day - and he put up a fair effort.
He took up the running, with a circuit to go - and still appeared to have a chance, turning for home.
However, 4m2f in heavy ground, takes some getting - and he tired quickly up the straight.
He took a heavy fall at the final fence - but thankfully, got back up (eventually !).
The race was won by Potters Corner, who was another tough one to find (particularly considering he had fallen on his 2 most recent runs).
He just got the better of Ms Parfois, who I had tipped ante-post for the Welsh National - but didn’t make the race.
I have to admit that I was slightly relieved that she didn’t win today, as it would have left me wondering what might have been….
As for the Mentions at Kempton:
Then Eddiemaurice got no further than the first fence.
To be honest, I don’t think the race was run in a way that would have suited him - but it would have been nice to see for sure !
Honest Vic also didn’t make it round - as he ploughed through the wings of the second last, in spectacular style !
He had hinted at a touch of temperament in the past - but had never done anything quite so dramatic !
His departure appeared to leave the way open for My Way - but he was run out of things close home, by Wicked Willy.
All in all, a day best forgotten…
TVB.
The most notable thing, was that come the off, all 3 had drifted out (on BF) to roughly their prices of last night (which was about 50% higher than this mornings advised prices).
I guess it could have been market corrections (and I could maybe believe that for Back to the Thatch) - but generally, that tends not to be a good thing…
Certainly, it didn’t see to be a good thing for Tara Flow.
I was pretty keen on her - but the market drift - coupled with an apparent reticence to get involved with the race - suggested from a very early stage, that she wasn't going to be involved at the finish.
She never moved out of the last couple of places - and you could only guess, at what the issue was…
The race was won by De Rasher Counter - but he was never really a price where I could have considered him as a saver…
Next it was Forecast.
Again, I thought he had a chance (certainly, more of a chance than his odds implied) - and whilst he moved nicely through the race to the home turn, he was quickly beaten once pressure was applied.
The race was won in impressive fashion, by Poker Play - but his victory wasn’t easy to predict.
The novices, Bold Plan and Acey Milan, followed him home (which was a little more predicable).
Back to the Thatch was the final tip on the day - and he put up a fair effort.
He took up the running, with a circuit to go - and still appeared to have a chance, turning for home.
However, 4m2f in heavy ground, takes some getting - and he tired quickly up the straight.
He took a heavy fall at the final fence - but thankfully, got back up (eventually !).
The race was won by Potters Corner, who was another tough one to find (particularly considering he had fallen on his 2 most recent runs).
He just got the better of Ms Parfois, who I had tipped ante-post for the Welsh National - but didn’t make the race.
I have to admit that I was slightly relieved that she didn’t win today, as it would have left me wondering what might have been….
As for the Mentions at Kempton:
Then Eddiemaurice got no further than the first fence.
To be honest, I don’t think the race was run in a way that would have suited him - but it would have been nice to see for sure !
Honest Vic also didn’t make it round - as he ploughed through the wings of the second last, in spectacular style !
He had hinted at a touch of temperament in the past - but had never done anything quite so dramatic !
His departure appeared to leave the way open for My Way - but he was run out of things close home, by Wicked Willy.
All in all, a day best forgotten…
TVB.
Daily write-up - Mar 16th
There are no less than 6 NH meetings today: at Uttoxeter,
Kempton, Newcastle, Fontwell, Limerick and Down Royal.
And I expected things to be quiet, after Cheltenham !
In fairness, most of the meetings are low key, with only Uttoxeter and Kempton staging races which could be described as ‘big’.
In truth, even the Kempton card is a little disappointing.
It puts on a couple of ‘consolation‘ races for horses that missed out on running at Cheltenham.
The meeting appeared set to take off, a couple of seasons back - but the fields for todays 2 feature races, aren’t great…
As a consequence, I’ve had to go to Uttoxeter for the tips.
I’ve managed to find 3 of them there - and I was quite happy with them, yesterday evening.
However, the prices were eroded overnight - and the margins aren’t quite as big this morning !
I still think they are worth backing - and who knows, there’s always the chance that the prices will drift back out a little, come to off…
Anyway, here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the big races which are taking place today…
Uttoxeter
2:25
I quite like Tara Flow in this…
I was very taken by her effort, last time out at Ffos Las, when she finished second to Molly Carew.
The winner appeared to be a very well handicapped horse, so Tara Flow probably lost little in defeat.
In fact, I’m a bit surprised that Tara Flows mark remained unchanged following the run, as Molly Carew was raised by 10lb (accepting that she did win by 10 lengths).
Having won over hurdles on heavy (when she defeated the very useful, The Organist), todays under-foot conditions, will hold no fear for Tara Flow.
She is unproven over todays trip - but there is no reason to think she won’t be able to cope with it - and there’s even a chance she will improve for the step up !
Venetia has been in very good form, for a number of weeks. She didn’t manage to get a winner at Cheltenham, but even there, most of her horses ran well (most notable, Aso).
Tara Flow is her only runner today - and Charlie Deutch's only ride.
Hopefully they can make it count !
Top weight, De Rasher Counter, looks like the main danger.
He’s been in good form lately - and still remains fairly handicapped.
However, lugging 11st12lb round in heavy ground, won’t be easy for him…
3:00
I think it is worth taking a risk on Forecast in this.
He caught my eye on his most recent run, at Cheltenham, on New Years day.
I tipped Aux Ptit Soins in that race, but was very aware of how well Forecast was travelling, coming down the hill.
Ultimately, Aux Ptit Soins kicked away in the home straight - but that may in part have been because Forecast didn’t stay the 3 mile trip.
Certainly his best form is over todays trip of 2m4f - including a third place behind Paisley Park, at Aintree in October; and a win over Notre Ami in the heavy at Lingfield, the following month.
All of those runs, give him a decent chance this afternoon…
The market for todays race, is headed by a couple of unexposed horses, in the shape of Acey Milan and Bold Plan.
Both are making their handicaps debuts - and could certainly better than their opening marks.
If they are, then they could prove too good for Fortune - but I think that’s a risk worth taking…
Certainly, I think he has as good a chance as any of the more exposed horses - particularly as he is proven under todays conditions.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Back to the Thatch in this.
He was quite well fancied for the corresponding race, 12 months ago (sent off at 15/2), but ran disappointingly and was pulled up.
However, he arrived that day, on the back over a heavy fall in the Eider chase - and there must be a chance that affected his performance…
He didn’t run again last season, but following a low key seasonal debut at Bangor, he ran well in the Welsh National trial at Chepstow.
That suggested he was back in his groove - and as a consequence, he was sent off at just 2/1 for a decent handicap chase at Haydock, at the end of the year.
He ran really well in that race, but just couldn’t managed to concede 8lb to the rejuvenated, Chef D’ouvre.
I don’t think that was any shame in that, as the winner subsequently went on to run a massive race behind Robinsfirth, at the same course.
As a consequence, Chef D’ouvre has to re-oppose Back to the Thatch on 9lb worse terms today for 3 lengths, and that should see the form reversed…
I also like the fact that Back to the Thatch hasn’t run since then.
He was again being targeted at the Eider - but connections gave that race a miss, owing to the quick ground.
Quick ground won’t be a problem today ! - and with Dickie in the saddle, I expect him to go very close indeed…
I was hoping to put up Milansbar as a saver - because I think he is potentially very dangerous.
However, he was tipped up in a host of places, last night - and a price of 8/1 this morning, is too short about a 12 year old in a 22 runner race.
I suspect he will drift (because he has been over-backed) - and if you can get double figures on him, then he is worth a small saver.
Officially speaking however, all of the eggs are in the Back to the Thatch basket !
Kempton
2:05
I’m moderately tempted to take a risk on Eddiemaurice in this.
He should arguably have won last time out - and Kempton is very much his track (he prefers the quick ground, which Kempton tends to produce).
The issue is, he’s a ‘traveller’ rather than a ‘finisher’ - and he would almost certainly be better suited by a bigger field (so he could be smuggled in to the race and delivered late).
That said, favourite, Timoteo, does look vulnerable…
He was most impressive when wining on his chasing debut at Stratford on Monday - but that was just 5 days ago - so there is a definite risk as to whether he will have fully recovered.
The only other runner worthy of consideration, appears to be Envoye Special - and he’s a hard one to get a handle on.
He’s only run twice in the UK - but has shown promise on both occasions.
He looks as if he could be one for next season - though if he’s strong in the market today, then I would maybe take the hint !
2:40
If you could be sure that Honest Vic would run to the same level of form he showed on his most recent outing, he would be a good bet in this.
Last time out, he finished runner up at Ascot, splitting Brio Conte and Ballyandy - with Malaya just behind in fourth place.
The first 2 named, finished third and fourth in Wednesday Coral cup; whilst Malaya subsequently won the Imperial cup.
To say the form is rock solid, is an under-statement !
However, Honest Vic showed big improvement that day - and it coincided with the fitting of a first time visor.
The visor is retained today - but whether it will have the same impact, is anybodys guess…
Certainly, if you look at Honest Vics form, aside from his last run, then it’s hard to make a case for him…
If he doesn’t perform to the Ascot level of form, then My Way looks the one most likely to take advantage, on his handicap debut.
He’s clearly well thought of (he made his UK debut in a grade 2 event) - and an opening mark of 121, looks very workable…
3:15
This race looks a complete minefield - and is definitely one best swerved from a betting perspective.
The biggest issue is the presence of Onefortheroadtom.
He’s been running eye catchingly in some much better races - whilst ultimately getting beaten a long way.
The feeling is that connections are working on his handicap mark - and the official assessor is certainly playing ball, as his mark has come down from 137 to 122.
However, we can only guess that’s the case - which makes supporting him at short odds, an impossible thing to do.
He could easily bolt in this afternoon - or he could just as easily finish out the back…
Even ignoring him this is not any easy race to asses.
Brother Ted is potentially well handicapped - and back at his favourite course - but he’s only run once in the past 2 years, so clearly comes with risks.
Kansas City Chief is another potentially dangerous one. He is dropping down the handicap and will doubtless come good at some point (I don’t think it will be today - but I couldn’t be totally sure).
Peacocks Secret is quite interesting, over from Ireland; whist El Terremento is probably the default winner, if non of the ‘plots’ are being timed for today !
In summary, it has to be a watching race - hopefully one which will reveal a few more clues on future intentions, for some of the runners !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Uttx 2:25 Tara Flow 1pt win 8/1
Uttx 3:00 Forecast 0.5pt win 16/1
Uttx 3:35 Back to the Thatch 1pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 2:05 Eddiemaurice (C )
Kemp 2:40 Honest Vic (C )
And I expected things to be quiet, after Cheltenham !
In fairness, most of the meetings are low key, with only Uttoxeter and Kempton staging races which could be described as ‘big’.
In truth, even the Kempton card is a little disappointing.
It puts on a couple of ‘consolation‘ races for horses that missed out on running at Cheltenham.
The meeting appeared set to take off, a couple of seasons back - but the fields for todays 2 feature races, aren’t great…
As a consequence, I’ve had to go to Uttoxeter for the tips.
I’ve managed to find 3 of them there - and I was quite happy with them, yesterday evening.
However, the prices were eroded overnight - and the margins aren’t quite as big this morning !
I still think they are worth backing - and who knows, there’s always the chance that the prices will drift back out a little, come to off…
Anyway, here is the rationale behind them - along with my thoughts on the big races which are taking place today…
Uttoxeter
2:25
I quite like Tara Flow in this…
I was very taken by her effort, last time out at Ffos Las, when she finished second to Molly Carew.
The winner appeared to be a very well handicapped horse, so Tara Flow probably lost little in defeat.
In fact, I’m a bit surprised that Tara Flows mark remained unchanged following the run, as Molly Carew was raised by 10lb (accepting that she did win by 10 lengths).
Having won over hurdles on heavy (when she defeated the very useful, The Organist), todays under-foot conditions, will hold no fear for Tara Flow.
She is unproven over todays trip - but there is no reason to think she won’t be able to cope with it - and there’s even a chance she will improve for the step up !
Venetia has been in very good form, for a number of weeks. She didn’t manage to get a winner at Cheltenham, but even there, most of her horses ran well (most notable, Aso).
Tara Flow is her only runner today - and Charlie Deutch's only ride.
Hopefully they can make it count !
Top weight, De Rasher Counter, looks like the main danger.
He’s been in good form lately - and still remains fairly handicapped.
However, lugging 11st12lb round in heavy ground, won’t be easy for him…
3:00
I think it is worth taking a risk on Forecast in this.
He caught my eye on his most recent run, at Cheltenham, on New Years day.
I tipped Aux Ptit Soins in that race, but was very aware of how well Forecast was travelling, coming down the hill.
Ultimately, Aux Ptit Soins kicked away in the home straight - but that may in part have been because Forecast didn’t stay the 3 mile trip.
Certainly his best form is over todays trip of 2m4f - including a third place behind Paisley Park, at Aintree in October; and a win over Notre Ami in the heavy at Lingfield, the following month.
All of those runs, give him a decent chance this afternoon…
The market for todays race, is headed by a couple of unexposed horses, in the shape of Acey Milan and Bold Plan.
Both are making their handicaps debuts - and could certainly better than their opening marks.
If they are, then they could prove too good for Fortune - but I think that’s a risk worth taking…
Certainly, I think he has as good a chance as any of the more exposed horses - particularly as he is proven under todays conditions.
3:35
I’m quite keen on Back to the Thatch in this.
He was quite well fancied for the corresponding race, 12 months ago (sent off at 15/2), but ran disappointingly and was pulled up.
However, he arrived that day, on the back over a heavy fall in the Eider chase - and there must be a chance that affected his performance…
He didn’t run again last season, but following a low key seasonal debut at Bangor, he ran well in the Welsh National trial at Chepstow.
That suggested he was back in his groove - and as a consequence, he was sent off at just 2/1 for a decent handicap chase at Haydock, at the end of the year.
He ran really well in that race, but just couldn’t managed to concede 8lb to the rejuvenated, Chef D’ouvre.
I don’t think that was any shame in that, as the winner subsequently went on to run a massive race behind Robinsfirth, at the same course.
As a consequence, Chef D’ouvre has to re-oppose Back to the Thatch on 9lb worse terms today for 3 lengths, and that should see the form reversed…
I also like the fact that Back to the Thatch hasn’t run since then.
He was again being targeted at the Eider - but connections gave that race a miss, owing to the quick ground.
Quick ground won’t be a problem today ! - and with Dickie in the saddle, I expect him to go very close indeed…
I was hoping to put up Milansbar as a saver - because I think he is potentially very dangerous.
However, he was tipped up in a host of places, last night - and a price of 8/1 this morning, is too short about a 12 year old in a 22 runner race.
I suspect he will drift (because he has been over-backed) - and if you can get double figures on him, then he is worth a small saver.
Officially speaking however, all of the eggs are in the Back to the Thatch basket !
Kempton
2:05
I’m moderately tempted to take a risk on Eddiemaurice in this.
He should arguably have won last time out - and Kempton is very much his track (he prefers the quick ground, which Kempton tends to produce).
The issue is, he’s a ‘traveller’ rather than a ‘finisher’ - and he would almost certainly be better suited by a bigger field (so he could be smuggled in to the race and delivered late).
That said, favourite, Timoteo, does look vulnerable…
He was most impressive when wining on his chasing debut at Stratford on Monday - but that was just 5 days ago - so there is a definite risk as to whether he will have fully recovered.
The only other runner worthy of consideration, appears to be Envoye Special - and he’s a hard one to get a handle on.
He’s only run twice in the UK - but has shown promise on both occasions.
He looks as if he could be one for next season - though if he’s strong in the market today, then I would maybe take the hint !
2:40
If you could be sure that Honest Vic would run to the same level of form he showed on his most recent outing, he would be a good bet in this.
Last time out, he finished runner up at Ascot, splitting Brio Conte and Ballyandy - with Malaya just behind in fourth place.
The first 2 named, finished third and fourth in Wednesday Coral cup; whilst Malaya subsequently won the Imperial cup.
To say the form is rock solid, is an under-statement !
However, Honest Vic showed big improvement that day - and it coincided with the fitting of a first time visor.
The visor is retained today - but whether it will have the same impact, is anybodys guess…
Certainly, if you look at Honest Vics form, aside from his last run, then it’s hard to make a case for him…
If he doesn’t perform to the Ascot level of form, then My Way looks the one most likely to take advantage, on his handicap debut.
He’s clearly well thought of (he made his UK debut in a grade 2 event) - and an opening mark of 121, looks very workable…
3:15
This race looks a complete minefield - and is definitely one best swerved from a betting perspective.
The biggest issue is the presence of Onefortheroadtom.
He’s been running eye catchingly in some much better races - whilst ultimately getting beaten a long way.
The feeling is that connections are working on his handicap mark - and the official assessor is certainly playing ball, as his mark has come down from 137 to 122.
However, we can only guess that’s the case - which makes supporting him at short odds, an impossible thing to do.
He could easily bolt in this afternoon - or he could just as easily finish out the back…
Even ignoring him this is not any easy race to asses.
Brother Ted is potentially well handicapped - and back at his favourite course - but he’s only run once in the past 2 years, so clearly comes with risks.
Kansas City Chief is another potentially dangerous one. He is dropping down the handicap and will doubtless come good at some point (I don’t think it will be today - but I couldn’t be totally sure).
Peacocks Secret is quite interesting, over from Ireland; whist El Terremento is probably the default winner, if non of the ‘plots’ are being timed for today !
In summary, it has to be a watching race - hopefully one which will reveal a few more clues on future intentions, for some of the runners !
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Tips
Uttx 2:25 Tara Flow 1pt win 8/1
Uttx 3:00 Forecast 0.5pt win 16/1
Uttx 3:35 Back to the Thatch 1pt win 10/1
Mentions
Kemp 2:05 Eddiemaurice (C )
Kemp 2:40 Honest Vic (C )
Review of the day
Victory for Early Doors in the final race, meant that the day
finished almost level - and ensured that Cheltenham week wasn’t a complete
disaster…
Objectively, the damage was done yesterday: but a better jump from Road to Respect at the third last - or a stumble from Paisley Park at the last, and things would have been very different.
They are fines lines…
And that was the case again today, when in addition to Early Doors, both Eclair du Beaufeur and Shantou Flyer, could easily have come home in front - granted a bit of luck.
That said, there were plenty of other runners who could claim the same - such is the nature of the Cheltenham festival…
In terms of specifics, then the day got off to the worse possible start, when Sir Erec broke his leg in the opener.
It’s always a horrible thing to see - even accepting that it comes with the territory…
The race was won Pentland Hills, who was having just his second run over hurdles.
Whether he would have won, if fate hadn’t snarled at Sir Erec, is anyones guess - though in fairness, he did look a worthy winner of the race.
Eclair de Beaufeur and Mr Adjudicator, were the first tips to run on the day: and whilst the latter never really featured, the former could arguably have won.
Certainly the in-running bettors believed that to be the case, as he went odds on, when shooting clear off the home turn.
However Jack Kennedy had mis-timed his effort - and the horse was already beaten, when it ejected him at the last.
It was disappointing - but every jockey makes the occasional mistake, and generally Kennedy is one of the best around.
Next it was the Albert Bartlett hurdle - and I felt it was a race in which there might be a shock.
And I was right, as 50/1 shot (BSP 140 !), Minella Indo, was an impressive winner.
If I’m honest, he’s not one I would have picked, even given a few stabs at the race - so maybe it was a bullet dodged…
I could have picked Al Boum Photo, given a few shots at the Gold Cup.
I was just put off by his run behind Presenting Percy in last years RSA - but he completely reversed the form this afternoon.
Shattered Love ran a big race, but was never quite close enough - and possibly didn’t quite get home.
She had been narrowly beaten by Al Boum Photo last year, and I suspect she will be capable of winning a grade 1 chase herself, given the right conditions….
Next it was the Foxhunters - and possibly the most disappointing result of the week !
I thought I had found one, when I picked up on Shantou Flyer a few weeks back - and he went very close to proving me right.
However, like Sam Spinner yesterday, there was one just a bit too good for him on the day.
He wasn’t unlucky, so I can have no real complaints - but it would have been very nice, if he could have run just that little bit faster !
The penultimate race of the day was the Grand Annual - and that proved disappointing…
I felt I had put us in a good position with Magic Saint and Le Prezein - and I was still feeling that way, turning in.
Both horses looked to be going strongly - but then, in just a few strides, both were beaten !
It was odd to watch - and if the Nicholls horses hadn't been running so well all week, you might have thought something was ailing them…
The race was won in spectacular style by the 12 year old, Croco Bay.
He did have previous in the race - but had only run once in the past 12 months - and hadn’t been out since last summer.
His SP of 66/1 seemed a little tight, with his BSP of 180, looking far nearer the mark !
A virtually impossible one to pick, I think…
And so to the final race.
I felt this morning, that despite the numbers, it was likely to boil down to a match between Early Doors and Dallas de Pictons - and that's exactly what happened.
Even after the last, it was difficult to figure out which one was going to come out on top.
But thankfully, after a few near misses, Early Doors got the better of their dual - and rescued the day.
In the circumstance, I feel it was the least we deserved….
And so endeth another festival.
As a spectacle is was breathtaking - as a punting medium, I found it very hard…
I need to take stock of how I handle things.
I’ve got an approach which works well, week in, week out, throughout the rest of the season - but I’m not convinced it works for Cheltenham.
I think I’ll need to change things a little next season - so I’ll be giving some thought to exactly what and how.
That can all wait though - I now need to start studying for Uttoxeter and Kempton tomorrow.
There really is no rest for the wicked :)
TVB.
Objectively, the damage was done yesterday: but a better jump from Road to Respect at the third last - or a stumble from Paisley Park at the last, and things would have been very different.
They are fines lines…
And that was the case again today, when in addition to Early Doors, both Eclair du Beaufeur and Shantou Flyer, could easily have come home in front - granted a bit of luck.
That said, there were plenty of other runners who could claim the same - such is the nature of the Cheltenham festival…
In terms of specifics, then the day got off to the worse possible start, when Sir Erec broke his leg in the opener.
It’s always a horrible thing to see - even accepting that it comes with the territory…
The race was won Pentland Hills, who was having just his second run over hurdles.
Whether he would have won, if fate hadn’t snarled at Sir Erec, is anyones guess - though in fairness, he did look a worthy winner of the race.
Eclair de Beaufeur and Mr Adjudicator, were the first tips to run on the day: and whilst the latter never really featured, the former could arguably have won.
Certainly the in-running bettors believed that to be the case, as he went odds on, when shooting clear off the home turn.
However Jack Kennedy had mis-timed his effort - and the horse was already beaten, when it ejected him at the last.
It was disappointing - but every jockey makes the occasional mistake, and generally Kennedy is one of the best around.
Next it was the Albert Bartlett hurdle - and I felt it was a race in which there might be a shock.
And I was right, as 50/1 shot (BSP 140 !), Minella Indo, was an impressive winner.
If I’m honest, he’s not one I would have picked, even given a few stabs at the race - so maybe it was a bullet dodged…
I could have picked Al Boum Photo, given a few shots at the Gold Cup.
I was just put off by his run behind Presenting Percy in last years RSA - but he completely reversed the form this afternoon.
Shattered Love ran a big race, but was never quite close enough - and possibly didn’t quite get home.
She had been narrowly beaten by Al Boum Photo last year, and I suspect she will be capable of winning a grade 1 chase herself, given the right conditions….
Next it was the Foxhunters - and possibly the most disappointing result of the week !
I thought I had found one, when I picked up on Shantou Flyer a few weeks back - and he went very close to proving me right.
However, like Sam Spinner yesterday, there was one just a bit too good for him on the day.
He wasn’t unlucky, so I can have no real complaints - but it would have been very nice, if he could have run just that little bit faster !
The penultimate race of the day was the Grand Annual - and that proved disappointing…
I felt I had put us in a good position with Magic Saint and Le Prezein - and I was still feeling that way, turning in.
Both horses looked to be going strongly - but then, in just a few strides, both were beaten !
It was odd to watch - and if the Nicholls horses hadn't been running so well all week, you might have thought something was ailing them…
The race was won in spectacular style by the 12 year old, Croco Bay.
He did have previous in the race - but had only run once in the past 12 months - and hadn’t been out since last summer.
His SP of 66/1 seemed a little tight, with his BSP of 180, looking far nearer the mark !
A virtually impossible one to pick, I think…
And so to the final race.
I felt this morning, that despite the numbers, it was likely to boil down to a match between Early Doors and Dallas de Pictons - and that's exactly what happened.
Even after the last, it was difficult to figure out which one was going to come out on top.
But thankfully, after a few near misses, Early Doors got the better of their dual - and rescued the day.
In the circumstance, I feel it was the least we deserved….
And so endeth another festival.
As a spectacle is was breathtaking - as a punting medium, I found it very hard…
I need to take stock of how I handle things.
I’ve got an approach which works well, week in, week out, throughout the rest of the season - but I’m not convinced it works for Cheltenham.
I think I’ll need to change things a little next season - so I’ll be giving some thought to exactly what and how.
That can all wait though - I now need to start studying for Uttoxeter and Kempton tomorrow.
There really is no rest for the wicked :)
TVB.
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