Daily write-up - Dec 14th

It’s the first day of Cheltenham’s ’International’ meeting - and there is also NH racing at Doncaster and Bangor.

The Doncaster card has been spoilt by a series of small fields.

Only 30 horses have been declared for the 7 races - and just 3 will go to post in 3 of them (assuming there are no NRs !).

In truth, non of them were going to be ‘big races’, regardless - but they could have been a bit more competitive !

The fields have stood up better at Bangor (presumably because the ground is softer) - though again, there aren’t really any suitable races for me to tip in.

So that just leaves Cheltenham…

As I said on Wednesday, when I sent out the ‘plans for the weekend’ email, my expectations for Cheltenham today, weren’t particularly high.

Well, you’ll be pleased to hear that they have been exceeded !

It’s a really good card - on which all races are of interest.

More than that, when the races were first priced up, it was looking as if it was going to be a day for plenty of tips !

However, the early markets mis-led - and very quickly all of the horses of interest were being backed - some, ridiculously well backed !

At least 2 of the horses I fancied, halved in priced, inside a couple of hours - and that leaves me with the same old dilemma…

Do I tip at the new price; leave the race alone - or try to find something else…

It’s a very time consuming (and frustrating) exercise - but alas, it’s the world I live in…

Anyway, I eventually settled on 3 tips on the day: I let some intended tips pass; changed one and accepted a shorter price on 2 !

Let’s hope I made the right calls !

Here’s the rationale for the tips that I went with - plus my thoughts on the other races on the card…

Cheltenham

12:10

I tipped Elixir de Nutz when he won at the November meeting - and there is a chance he will follow up today.

However, lots went right for him that day, in terms of how the race panned out - and things might not work out quite as well for him, today.
I felt he was worth a risk last time, because he was a decent price: however at just 5/2, the temptation isn’t there.

More than that, it’s nearly impossible to quantify a few of his opponents,

Angels Breath is making his rules debut for Nicky Henderson and is clearly very well thought of.

He could literally be anything…

Similar is true of I K Brunel, who makes his hurdling debut for Olly Murphy, having been successful on his only previous run, in a bumper…

However, if I was going to get involved with the race, then I would be more inclined to take a risk on Jarveys Plate.

He’s got some hurdling experience, having finished third, when favourite for quite a hot contest at Hereford.

I would expect him to build on that - and in receipt of 8lb from Elixir, he’s a sporting bet, at 6/1.
The trouble is, even if he beats Elixir, there’s no way of knowing if he’ll be able to handle Angels Breath or I K Brunel.

There is just too much guesswork required, so it really has to be a watching race…

12:45

TVB favourite, Lil Rockerfeller runs in this - and he’s got a very good chance…

He’s unbeaten in 3 runs over fences this season - and whilst he struggled on his penultimate outing, at this course, he’s been quite impressive on the other 2 occasions.

First time up, he beat Wenyerreadyfreddie, at Uttoxeter - and that one has won twice since, franking the form in no uncertain manner: whilst last time, he jumped and travelled really well at Exeter, and won in a relative canter.

His run at Cheltenham in October, does give some cause for concern - but he’s a horse to whom, I would always be prepared to give the benefit of the doubt - and maybe he was just learning his trade !

He faces 3 tough rivals today however, so he will need to be on his mettle.

I’d be most fearful of The Worlds End, even though he disappointed a little, last time out, when beaten by Ibis du Rheu.

That one re-opposes today - but on 8lb worse terms he will struggle to maintain his superiority.

Gunfleet is the fourth runner in the race - and whilst he has a bit to do, based on ratings, he’s still relatively unexposed and is clearly well thought of.

It won’t be easy for Lil Rockerfeller - but equally, he’ll make sure that it won’t be easy for any of his rivals !

Hopefully he’ll be up to the job…

1:20

I really don’t know what to say about Smaoineamh Alainn, in this…

I put her up in the forum as an eye catcher, following her most recent run at Wincanton - and when I saw she had been declared for today race, I was obviously very interested.

She opened up at 14/1 with B365 last night - which I knew wouldn’t last !

However, I would have been happy with half of the 10/1, generally on offer, so I didn’t think there would be an issue tipping her.

However, roll on a few hours and by 9:30 this morning, she was 3/1 !

She’s now just 2/1 with B365 - and I suspect one of their odds compilers is in for a bit of a dressing down !

In terms of whether she will win - then I think she will.

She’s on a mark just 2lb higher than when she won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and I suspect she probably has about 10lb in hand.

However, it is taking on 3 or 4 unexposed rivals, so it’s impossible to be completely confident.

Highest Son is the one that interests me most: but Al Dancer is also impossible to asses.

Add to those, the likes of Jam Session and Master Work - both of whom are improving: plus Not that Fuisse and Magic Dancer, who are both fair handicappers - and you have a competitive enough race…

I do think that Smaoineamh Alainn is the most likely winner - but she’s not a certainty.

I would maybe have been prepared to go down to 4/1 - but 3/1 is at least a step too much.

Hopefully some of you, who follow the eye catchers, managed to get a half decent price last night.

For the rest, it’s now just a race to watch, whilst lamenting over the impact of pricing up races early…

1:55

This is perhaps the most open race on the card - but I think The Bay Birch has a fair chance of winning it…

The ran really well last time, when finishing third at Newbury in a much better race.

In fairness, she never really looked likely to win - and she has been raised 1lb for her efforts - but she’s not going to be facing rivals today, who are anywhere near as good as the ones she faced at Newbury.

That run, was her first over fences since she finished runner up to Midnight Target, over todays course and distance, back in April.

There was only a length between the pair that day - and with The Bay Birch 1lb better off today, the two of them should virtually cross the line together, this afternoon.

I just slightly prefer the chance of The Bay Birch, as she’s a year younger and looks a little more progressive.

Most of the others runners can be given a chance of sorts - and there is nothing I would pick out as a main danger.

Hopefully The Bay Birch will run her race - and if she does, then I think she will go very close.

2:30

I was originally considering tipping El Bandit in this…

I tipped him last time, on his seasonal debut at Wincanton. He was sent off favourite that day - but made a few early mistakes and was pulled up.
I would be prepared to forgive that run - but Paul Nicholls says that he will probably need another run to get him right.

I know you should never listen to what a trainer says, pre-race ! - but it does make sense…

If El Bandit runs poorly today, his mark will likely be dropped 3lb, making him very well handicapped.

I suspect Nicholls will find that hard to resist.

If he’s backed late, then take the hint - otherwise, just watch him…

In truth, this is a very strong race.

Theatre Territory is a worthy favourite - and it’s hard to see her out of the first 3.

Rock the Kasbah also has a good chance of following up his course win, at the November meeting.

However, I think the market may have under-estimated Rock the Kasbahs stable mate, Rolling Dylan.
For starters, it’s quite interesting that Philip Hobbs even runs him in the race, considering he saddles the second favourite.

Rolling Dylan isn’t yet proven at this level, but he is an improving horse, who could easily be up to the job.

He was sent off favourite on his seasonal debut in a decent race at Bangor - and ran pretty well to finish fourth.

He should have come on for that run - and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb.

In truth, his form isn’t yet good enough to win a race of this nature - but he’s a second season novice, and only 7 - so there should still be plenty of scope for improvement.

The improvement will need to materialise this afternoon - but if it does, I think he can run a big race.

3:05

I really did think I’d found one for this race, when it was first priced up, yesterday…

Amazing Comedy was put in at 8/1 - and against the likes of Josies Orders and Fact of the Matter, that seemed quite reasonable.
He’s trained in France - and foreign raiders are often under-estimated.

However, the market then took a liking to him - and amazingly, he’s now 3/1 favourite !

Now don’t get me wrong, I think he has a good chance.

His run at the festival 2 seasons ago, suggest he is potentially very well handicapped, receiving chunks of weight from most of his rivals.

However, that run also suggests he might struggle to get home today.

At 8/1, I would have taken a chance on his stamina - but not at 3/1…

It’s not as if this is a weak race.

Most of the runners can be given a chance of sorts - and I have a feeling that there will be some serious ‘value’ on offer at some point (because the market just doesn’t feel right).

The aforementioned Josies Orders and Fact of the Matter, are the obvious ones - and the latter is quite tempting at 7/1 (maybe EW)

However, chances can also be given to My Hometown, Full Cry and Balleycasey: Whilst the money for the other French raider, Vol Noir de Kerser, suggests he is not over for a day out !
Beyond all of those, I got very close to tipping Wounded Warrior.

He has his first run for Sam Curling, having been very useful for Noel Meade.

The really interesting aspect with him, is that Derek O Connor rides - and he’s a 25/1 chance !

The horse has no experience over the banks - so it would be a risk - but Curling has a PTP background, so I suspect he will be well schooled.

Whatever, it’s definitely not a race where I would be prepared to take a short price about anything - particularly when there is a question mark over its ability to stay the trip…

3:40

I’m quite keen on Sizing Granite in this - and if the race was being run in 4 months time, I would be even keener !

Let’s get the negative out of the way first, I have a niggling doubt that the horse may be best in the spring.

Certainly, his best performances have come at that time of year - though whether that’s just coincidence, we are likely to find out this afternoon !

If we ignore that point, then I think he’s got a great chance !

For a start, he runs today off a mark just 1lb higher than he won from at Newbury in the spring.

That was a similar quality race - and he was a comfortable winner.

It was only over 2 miles and todays contest is over 3 miles, which begs a question, with regard to his stamina.

However, I think he will improve for the test…

Following his Newbury win, he ran over fences at both Aintree and Puchestown.

He finished fifth in the Grade 1 Gold Cup at the latter venue, beaten just 10 lengths.

Futhermore, he was unlucky not to end up a good deal closer, as he made a bad mistake at the second last.

That race was over 3 miles and he had no problem with the trip.

That race was also completely different quality to todays - and based on that run, off a mark of 133, he looks thrown in…

He’s run 4 times since Punchestown and not featured: However his 2 runs over hurdles, have been at the minimum trip: whilst his 2 runs over fences have been in grade 2 company (and also, arguably over too short).

I think he could bounce right back to form today - given a much more suitable assignment.

If he does, then it will take a good one to beat him !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tips

Chel 1:55 The Bay Birch 1pt win 6/1

Chel 2:30 Rolling Dylan 0.5pt win 22/1

Chel 3:40 Sizing Granite 1pt win 12/1

Mentions

Chel 12:10 Jarveys Plate (S )

Chel 12:45 Lil Rockerfeller (O )

Chel 1:20 Smaoineamh Ailann (P )

Chel 3:05 Wounded Warrior (S )